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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: Those firms that don’t prompt for the Greens are producing the highest EP2014 shares for Ukip
There’s a new ComRes online Euros poll out this morning for Channel 4. The figures show Ukip in its best position of any of the firms that have reported this week with a big margin over place LAB. But there’s a big difference between ComRes 10/10 certain to vote figures and those where its normal turnout weightings are applied.
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http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
It says that this is not a steady as she goes poll.
5/4 UKIP
7/4 Conservatives
7/4 Labour
Can I back UKIP at 5/4 for.... everything I have got?
I think they may well do well... especially if UKIP is tainted in some eyes as the anti-westminster party.
I would have thought it would be top of their To Do list.
That's a touch confusing, might need a reword.
She was then sacked from the next she worked on, which was Becker after a few seasons for being difficult to work with.
She eventually "retired" from acting.
Green gains on Kirklees? Wor lass would be pleased!
SNats - angry with wild flailing at all comers
UKnips - tears, maudlin wailing.
It plays into UKIP's hands in the bigger picture, as the polls show, but I would rather see consistency thats all. It makes me feel bad for the other parties in a way when they unwittingly treat the new kid on the block the way a Racist Met Police officer treats a black kid, then accuses them of playing the victim when its pointed out
In the movie, Kirk emoted that Klaa was a legend and he'd studied his victories in officer training. Was anything of them ever shown in any of the series?
I don't bet on the spreads but the last couple of years Mr. Putney has raised them on my pre-season posts.
Would there be any interest in intermittent posts on the subject (on my own blog, of course, though I'd signpost it here)? The mid-season interval and three-quarters marks would seem sensible times to review such things.
I can't imagine it'd take too much time/effort on my part (particularly as it's be more vague musing than tipping).
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-tables-May.pdf
http://survation.com/new-scotland-referendum-and-voting-intention-poll-by-survation/
It's only a matter of time before their leaders appear in flowing robes, with buckets of 'medicinally laced' Irn Bru and Vimto, for the believers.
I think UKIP will top the poll, but the battle for second place really is on a knife edge now.
Dan Hodges think's Ed's finished if he come's third...
I avoid the points spread betting market, it only takes one mechanical breakdown or one numpty like Grosjean to cause a retirement and balls up the market.
Also, you're unfair on Grosjean. He's never been malicious and was very good in 2013 and this year, so far. Maldonado's the chap you need to watch out for.
An article written by Hugo Rifkind, London based sell-out, son of a Tory (a former Scottish Secretary under Thatcher no less), that they might actually agree with...
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/hugo-rifkind/9206231/scotlands-fate-is-more-important-than-david-camerons/
10% current-LD, 7% current-Labour, 2% current-Con.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rmxq05w0hg/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140514-EU.pdf
UKIP are getting
4% current-LD, 9% current-Labour, 22% current-Con.
But you can't use a bad season that seems to be behind him as a reason to criticise him now. Remember the back end of 2011? Hamilton went to pieces on circuit because of off-track problems.
Mr. Nat, welcome to pb.com.
I thought it was amusing. ( A handy thing to remember, is that in the best Scottish bars, they say terrible things to your face, and nice things behind your back)
I'm pretty sure it was Opinium who gave me the 2009 list in a Euro poll, thereby including a whole bunch of people who aren't standing this time.
"For many years, the Ukip leader was ignored by the mainstream media. In the 2004 European elections, Ukip marked its first major breakthrough, winning 16 per cent of the seats. However, the BBC marked the party down as “other” in its news report the following day.
Now that Mr Farage can no longer be ignored, he is sneered at instead. Even so, it looks possible that next week he will come top in the national vote. This will be a truly astounding achievement. No political party in modern history – not even Neil Kinnock’s Labour in 1987 – has come under such sustained attack and misrepresentation. Mr Kinnock at least had The Guardian and the Daily Mirror; Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title, and several papers are running vendettas against him. Mr Kinnock was treated reasonably fairly by the broadcast media. This is not the case with Mr Farage: consider the lacerating contempt shown towards him by Channel 4 News and its chief presenter, Jon Snow. Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, has also abandoned his usual fairness when dealing with the party.
Consider the way Mr Robinson covered Ukip’s campaign launch three weeks ago. He did not seriously attempt to address its policies, as might have been expected. Instead, he tackled Mr Farage about the fact that he employed his German wife as his secretary. This was surely a story that Mr Robinson could and would have left to a junior reporter if he had been dealing with any other party"
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/15/polling-analysis-those-firms-that-dont-prompt-for-the-greens-are-producing-the-highest-ep2014-shares-for-ukip/
That reminds me of the only funny sketch that Dick Emery ever managed. They'd gone back to a "Good Life" scenario ... the home-made bread was soggy in the middle, the table made out of recycled wood wobbled alarmingly and so on.
Re Global Warming (apologies in advance), but if the proponents had said that "The earth was showing signs of warming (as it does from time to time) and although there are many confounding factors, we know from lab experiments that greenhouse gases can warm the atmosphere, so it might be prudent to reduce emissions where convenient." I'd have been far more comfortable.
But no, it's all a disaster, our only hope is to send us back to the stone age, and if we don't, these are the ranges of temperature rise we can expect. A massive hostage to fortune when these confident predictions fail. Of course, the response is "OK, it's different, but we can still fit it into our theory with a bit of squeezing."
Is that the correct URL link ?
UKIP 28
Lab 21
Con 16
LDs 1
Green 1
SNP 2
Plaid 1
ComRes 'Normal' UNS
UKIP 24
Lab 23
Con 17
LDs 1
Green 2
SNP 2
Plaid 1
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2629099/I-did-bad-thing-I-m-not-proud-Nick-Clegg-drunken-night-set-fire-rare-cacti-collection-judge-Munich.html
Mr. CD13, quite so
UKIP have had shit sent through the post, bricks lobbed through MEP's windows, Students abusing their OAP members, meetings being stormed , Asian and black candidates being called "racists" "fakes" and "traitors" by middle class students, all because they are making ground in the polls, yet the blame seems to lie with us.
Just imagine if it were Respect that were getting this kind of stick from right wingers
Also, I thought they had eight councillors?
Edit - It is 8 Green and Valley Independents.
http://www2.kirklees.gov.uk/you-kmc/kmc-howcouncilworks/councillors/profile/yourcouncillors.aspx
19% 2010 LD, 7% 2010 Lab, 3% 2010 Con
UKIP have
18% 2010 LD, 15% 2010 Lab, 37% 2010 Con.
Haha.. it is me that cannot see the wood for the trees!
"For many years, the Ukip leader was ignored by the mainstream media. In the 2004 European elections, Ukip marked its first major breakthrough, winning 16 per cent of the seats. However, the BBC marked the party down as “other” in its news report the following day.
Now that Mr Farage can no longer be ignored, he is sneered at instead. Even so, it looks possible that next week he will come top in the national vote. This will be a truly astounding achievement. No political party in modern history – not even Neil Kinnock’s Labour in 1987 – has come under such sustained attack and misrepresentation. Mr Kinnock at least had The Guardian and the Daily Mirror; Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title, and several papers are running vendettas against him. Mr Kinnock was treated reasonably fairly by the broadcast media. This is not the case with Mr Farage: consider the lacerating contempt shown towards him by Channel 4 News and its chief presenter, Jon Snow. Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, has also abandoned his usual fairness when dealing with the party.
Consider the way Mr Robinson covered Ukip’s campaign launch three weeks ago. He did not seriously attempt to address its policies, as might have been expected. Instead, he tackled Mr Farage about the fact that he employed his German wife as his secretary. This was surely a story that Mr Robinson could and would have left to a junior reporter if he had been dealing with any other party"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10830882/British-politics-is-broken-and-only-Nigel-Farage-is-profiting.html
Whatever the turnout, I do sincerely hope the LibDems get no seats at all. We all need a laugh now and then, and the party of in being turfed out would be pure cabaret.
With the spectre of deflation (which is something I don't believe the EC understands properly, they seem to think it might be good for southern Europe to have some price deflation to spur wage deflation) and economic growth stalling in western Europe I don't know what they are going to do next. If the French economy doesn't start to pick up soon I could see another crisis, it is the key determinant for the future of the EU. If Hollande can't reform the economy in the time the ECB has bought over the next year or so then everything will start going backwards again properly. One hopes that the government will continue to expand non-EU trade and ensure that we are not so dependent on the EU for economic growth.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 3m
11% of people have a second home?Incredible stat http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/was/wealth-in-great-britain-wave-3/2010-2012/sty-facts-about-household-wealth.html …
Peter Oborne wrote that article not me by the way, I posted the wrong link
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10830882/British-politics-is-broken-and-only-Nigel-Farage-is-profiting.html
I'm not a Peter Oborne fan especially, but this time he is spot on.
I wonder how quickly and how far Euroland will decline, and the impact on the UK (both economically and politically).
How are plans for banking and fiscal integration coming along? I haven't heard anything about that for ages.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BnoMO_9IQAEkYhB.jpg:large
Some trends seem likely.
Firstly, because the whole thing is gesture politics the vote will be spread more widely than the polls are generally indicating with lots of votes going to "others" who don't normally register.
Secondly, because of that and because UKIP will not be able to scoop the poll of the largest segment for these elections, the NOTA party, I suspect they will undershoot rather than overshoot the current estimates.
Thirdly, Labour will seriously undershoot in the areas where they don't have locals generating at least something of a GOTV operation. They always do.
Fourthly, the tories will undershoot as well because they are in government and kicking governments is really the point of this.
Fifthly, and slightly ominously, "the party of in" might very well be left with no seats at all. I can't think who, other than a completely dedicated party member, will vote Lib Dem in these elections.
Who will that leave in the lead? Have you got a die? I would give UKIP numbers 1-3, the tories 4 and Labour five and six. But it is pretty random. There is more chance of picking a winner in the Grand National.
The Science has moved on a bit since then and your characterisation of the solutions suggested is inaccurate, to put it mildly.
Which pollsters dont prompt for UKIP in Westminster VI Mike? Does that flatter the other parties scores?
Yeah, Oborne knows how to pick them
If he were still around, I wonder whether that little ray of sunshine Coldstone would have converted to UKIP?
If these were the true odds my book would be considerably greener, so this isn't my pocket talking. But like iSam I'll take 5/4 on UKIP
I see he's a bit challenged on train history in the sense of modern trains, though the Scots did contribute to the development of railways per se, en route from German mines to HS2, through the Tranent and Cockenzie Waggonway ...
Farage sells out to Cameron, principal agent of the EUSSR
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/05/farage-sells-out-to-cameron-principal-agent-of-the-eussr.html
UKIP 28% to 32%
Lab 25% to 28%
Con 21% to 24%
The only exception is ICM, which had Con in the lead (just): 27% Con to 26% UKIP. That looks like an outlier.
In practice, as Sean Fear points out upthread, the plethora of minor parties means the final big three vote-share figures will probably be lower all round, but the order looks reasonably robust. I think there is a chance that Labour will disappoint on the day, and maybe UKIP will outperform. Overall, I'm expecting UKIP/Lab/Con but wouldn't be too surprised if Labour come third.
David Axelrod has joined me at Shadow Cabinet to discuss how we win and change Britain. pic.twitter.com/GvrYIPZ46Y
Poor old Ed...he's really not very photogenic is he?
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11215174._/
I'm sure that on a nice sunny morning such as today, he's yomping across Dorset with a spring in his step, and a rucksack full of UKIP campaign literature on his back, chatting with fellow White Flighters.
http://order-order.com/2014/05/14/farage-id-do-a-deal-with-dave/
Rory Stewart defeated Julian Lewis by 226-212 in the seventh stage of voting after Julian Brazier was eliminated :
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/defence/Defence-Committee-chair-election-final-results.pdf