politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: Those firms that don’t prompt for the Gre
There’s a new ComRes online Euros poll out this morning for Channel 4. The figures show Ukip in its best position of any of the firms that have reported this week with a big margin over place LAB. But there’s a big difference between ComRes 10/10 certain to vote figures and those where its normal turnout weightings are applied.
Comments
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Interesting analysis - I do wonder if the Greens will be the only party smiling a week on Sunday0
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@IsabelOakeshott: Just 1 person in audience of 500 property business profs in Birmingham raised a hand when asked if they believe @Ed_Miliband will be PM0
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I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-20140515866020 -
Which Westminster polls do not prompt for UKIP? I thought we were told it didnt make much difference?
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As a change from the Scottish discussion, on Monday there will be new polling data out on Wales. Seehttp://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/
It says that this is not a steady as she goes poll.0 -
So you are betting it
5/4 UKIP
7/4 Conservatives
7/4 Labour
Can I back UKIP at 5/4 for.... everything I have got?0 -
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
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Green leaflet received today - in the recycling bin now. Trust they approve.
I think they may well do well... especially if UKIP is tainted in some eyes as the anti-westminster party.0 -
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-20140515866020 -
Did any pollster prompt for An Independence from Europe?
I would have thought it would be top of their To Do list.0 -
I laughed - of course I may be in a minority of Jockanese posters who can laugh at such rib tickling..ToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-20140515866020 -
Interestingly two the firms that prompt for the Greens, ICM and YouGov, have Ukip ahead. The other one which prompts, Opinium, has a Ukip lead.
That's a touch confusing, might need a reword.
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FPT: Mr. Eagles, care to explain about Dax?0
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He'd be SHRIEKING like a Kipper.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-20140515866020 -
Are you intending to spend the day acting the victim or will you be moving on at some point? I'd like to know so I can skip over your posts today if required.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
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She was very difficult to work with, and announced at the very last moment she wouldn't be coming back for the final season which meant a lot of rewrites.Morris_Dancer said:FPT: Mr. Eagles, care to explain about Dax?
She was then sacked from the next she worked on, which was Becker after a few seasons for being difficult to work with.
She eventually "retired" from acting.
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Did the Greens do unusually well in the council elections last time they coincided with the Euros?
Green gains on Kirklees? Wor lass would be pleased!0 -
Seems to be a divergence in far left nationalist tactics at perceived slights..saddened said:
Are you intending to spend the day acting the victim or will you be moving on at some point? I'd like to know so I can skip over your posts today if required.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
SNats - angry with wild flailing at all comers
UKnips - tears, maudlin wailing.
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Kippers are quite entertaining, every zoo should have a pair.TheWatcher said:
He'd be SHRIEKING like a Kipper.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-20140515866020 -
They are arguably the only party that can set their own measure of success.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting analysis - I do wonder if the Greens will be the only party smiling a week on Sunday
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They could be the largest party on KirkleesSandyRentool said:Did the Greens do unusually well in the council elections last time they coincided with the Euros?
Green gains on Kirklees? Wor lass would be pleased!0 -
Mr. Eagles, I did wonder why Dax got a new host. Bit of a shame.0
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To be honest I thought the brunt of the insult there was towards Scots. I have no problem laughing at my own side if it's funny, but I don't have time for "comedy" that is just insulting people.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
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Voters in choosing one NOTA party or another shock.0
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Yup, success = performance minus anticipation.Grandiose said:
They are arguably the only party that can set their own measure of success.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting analysis - I do wonder if the Greens will be the only party smiling a week on Sunday
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I thought you'd skip them anyway!saddened said:
Are you intending to spend the day acting the victim or will you be moving on at some point? I'd like to know so I can skip over your posts today if required.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
It plays into UKIP's hands in the bigger picture, as the polls show, but I would rather see consistency thats all. It makes me feel bad for the other parties in a way when they unwittingly treat the new kid on the block the way a Racist Met Police officer treats a black kid, then accuses them of playing the victim when its pointed out
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Re 'Trek, one of the best PC games I ever played was the one in the late 80s based on Star Trek V. I played the game before I saw the appalling movie. It was great, especially the bit in the combat simulator where you had to fight three cloaked Klingon Birds of Prey captained by Klaa, Vixis and Korrd.
In the movie, Kirk emoted that Klaa was a legend and he'd studied his victories in officer training. Was anything of them ever shown in any of the series?
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Actually fair enough I think you are right, I jumped the gunToryJim said:
To be honest I thought the brunt of the insult there was towards Scots. I have no problem laughing at my own side if it's funny, but I don't have time for "comedy" that is just insulting people.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
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F1: a spread-betting thought.
I don't bet on the spreads but the last couple of years Mr. Putney has raised them on my pre-season posts.
Would there be any interest in intermittent posts on the subject (on my own blog, of course, though I'd signpost it here)? The mid-season interval and three-quarters marks would seem sensible times to review such things.
I can't imagine it'd take too much time/effort on my part (particularly as it's be more vague musing than tipping).0 -
Survation have broken the url for the tables used earlier. The url now redirects elsewhere, and the new PDF doesn't include the EU Parliament VI (page numbers jump from 16-21)?
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-tables-May.pdf
http://survation.com/new-scotland-referendum-and-voting-intention-poll-by-survation/0 -
They both sound like cult members, isolated and increasingly paranoid.TGOHF said:
Seems to be a divergence in far left nationalist tactics at perceived slights..saddened said:
Are you intending to spend the day acting the victim or will you be moving on at some point? I'd like to know so I can skip over your posts today if required.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
SNats - angry with wild flailing at all comers
UKnips - tears, maudlin wailing.
It's only a matter of time before their leaders appear in flowing robes, with buckets of 'medicinally laced' Irn Bru and Vimto, for the believers.0 -
Labour's problem, as ever, will be getting their supporters to turn out - Lab 24% Con 22% is not at all comfortable for Labour in an election where they often struggle to get their vote out...
I think UKIP will top the poll, but the battle for second place really is on a knife edge now.
Dan Hodges think's Ed's finished if he come's third...0 -
Would be good to include them.Morris_Dancer said:F1: a spread-betting thought.
I don't bet on the spreads but the last couple of years Mr. Putney has raised them on my pre-season posts.
Would there be any interest in intermittent posts on the subject (on my own blog, of course, though I'd signpost it here)? The mid-season interval and three-quarters marks would seem sensible times to review such things.
I can't imagine it'd take too much time/effort on my part (particularly as it's be more vague musing than tipping).
I avoid the points spread betting market, it only takes one mechanical breakdown or one numpty like Grosjean to cause a retirement and balls up the market.0 -
Among Yougov's Certain to Vote, UKIP go up to 28%, and Labour down to 25%. It's hard to know if 10 out of 10 is an accurate turnout filter, or if it's too harsh. I think that the huge array of micro-parties would make it very difficult, in practice, for any party to exceed 30%.0
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Mr. Eagles, but, like title betting, you'd try and take that into account.
Also, you're unfair on Grosjean. He's never been malicious and was very good in 2013 and this year, so far. Maldonado's the chap you need to watch out for.0 -
Here's a poser for the Nats.
An article written by Hugo Rifkind, London based sell-out, son of a Tory (a former Scottish Secretary under Thatcher no less), that they might actually agree with...
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/hugo-rifkind/9206231/scotlands-fate-is-more-important-than-david-camerons/0 -
Are there any bookies doing odds on parties winning seats in individual constituencies? Greens in NW, UKIP in NE and YF in Yorkshire come to mind0
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I remember his pile up in 2012 at Spa where he nearly maimed AlonsoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, but, like title betting, you'd try and take that into account.
Also, you're unfair on Grosjean. He's never been malicious and was very good in 2013 and this year, so far. Maldonado's the chap you need to watch out for.0 -
In the YouGov EUP poll the Greens are getting:
10% current-LD, 7% current-Labour, 2% current-Con.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rmxq05w0hg/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140514-EU.pdf
UKIP are getting
4% current-LD, 9% current-Labour, 22% current-Con.0 -
Mr. Eagles, indeed, and I'm sure Alonso does too.
But you can't use a bad season that seems to be behind him as a reason to criticise him now. Remember the back end of 2011? Hamilton went to pieces on circuit because of off-track problems.
Mr. Nat, welcome to pb.com.0 -
Surely rather than just taking all the 10/10 it would be better to take a proportion of each certainty.Sean_F said:Among Yougov's Certain to Vote, UKIP go up to 28%, and Labour down to 25%. It's hard to know if 10 out of 10 is an accurate turnout filter, or if it's too harsh. I think that the huge array of micro-parties would make it very difficult, in practice, for any party to exceed 30%.
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Victim It is then, thanks for the heads up.isam said:
I thought you'd skip them anyway!saddened said:
Are you intending to spend the day acting the victim or will you be moving on at some point? I'd like to know so I can skip over your posts today if required.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
It plays into UKIP's hands in the bigger picture, as the polls show, but I would rather see consistency thats all. It makes me feel bad for the other parties in a way when they unwittingly treat the new kid on the block the way a Racist Met Police officer treats a black kid, then accuses them of playing the victim when its pointed out
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At one stage, it looked as if the Conservatives were heading for less than 20%, but I expect they'll be satisfied with 22-24%. Beating Labour into 3rd would have CCHQ tap-dancing with flee.GIN1138 said:Labour's problem, as ever, will be getting their supporters to turn out - Lab 24% Con 22% is not at all comfortable for Labour in an election where they often struggle to get their vote out...
I think UKIP will top the poll, but the battle for second place really is on a knife edge now.
Dan Hodges think's Ed's finished if he come's third...
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I forget which firm it was, but one of the online pollsters gave me the actual list of parties standing in my region for the prompt, in alphabetical order as on the ballot paper.AveryLP said:Did any pollster prompt for An Independence from Europe?
I would have thought it would be top of their To Do list.
I'm pretty sure it was Opinium who gave me the 2009 list in a Euro poll, thereby including a whole bunch of people who aren't standing this time.0 -
Is this Green surge real? Where's it coming from?0
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At least someone can see the wood for the trees
"For many years, the Ukip leader was ignored by the mainstream media. In the 2004 European elections, Ukip marked its first major breakthrough, winning 16 per cent of the seats. However, the BBC marked the party down as “other” in its news report the following day.
Now that Mr Farage can no longer be ignored, he is sneered at instead. Even so, it looks possible that next week he will come top in the national vote. This will be a truly astounding achievement. No political party in modern history – not even Neil Kinnock’s Labour in 1987 – has come under such sustained attack and misrepresentation. Mr Kinnock at least had The Guardian and the Daily Mirror; Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title, and several papers are running vendettas against him. Mr Kinnock was treated reasonably fairly by the broadcast media. This is not the case with Mr Farage: consider the lacerating contempt shown towards him by Channel 4 News and its chief presenter, Jon Snow. Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, has also abandoned his usual fairness when dealing with the party.
Consider the way Mr Robinson covered Ukip’s campaign launch three weeks ago. He did not seriously attempt to address its policies, as might have been expected. Instead, he tackled Mr Farage about the fact that he employed his German wife as his secretary. This was surely a story that Mr Robinson could and would have left to a junior reporter if he had been dealing with any other party"
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/15/polling-analysis-those-firms-that-dont-prompt-for-the-greens-are-producing-the-highest-ep2014-shares-for-ukip/0 -
As Ukip have a big chunk of NOTAs, it's hardly surprising that some may prefer the fluffy bunny Greens if reminded.
That reminds me of the only funny sketch that Dick Emery ever managed. They'd gone back to a "Good Life" scenario ... the home-made bread was soggy in the middle, the table made out of recycled wood wobbled alarmingly and so on.
Re Global Warming (apologies in advance), but if the proponents had said that "The earth was showing signs of warming (as it does from time to time) and although there are many confounding factors, we know from lab experiments that greenhouse gases can warm the atmosphere, so it might be prudent to reduce emissions where convenient." I'd have been far more comfortable.
But no, it's all a disaster, our only hope is to send us back to the stone age, and if we don't, these are the ranges of temperature rise we can expect. A massive hostage to fortune when these confident predictions fail. Of course, the response is "OK, it's different, but we can still fit it into our theory with a bit of squeezing."
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I thought it was hilarious too, especially the "anything you can get from human bites" in quotes and the "developing world" observation...0
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F1 Morris - Surely if you're not actually betting on the spreads you should keep away from blog posting about them?0
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No they cannot , they only have 5 councillors now and even if they won every ward this year they would not be the largest party . I doubt that they will even have 10 councillors after this year's electionsTheScreamingEagles said:
They could be the largest party on KirkleesSandyRentool said:Did the Greens do unusually well in the council elections last time they coincided with the Euros?
Green gains on Kirklees? Wor lass would be pleased!0 -
ComRes '100' UNS
UKIP 28
Lab 21
Con 16
LDs 1
Green 1
SNP 2
Plaid 1
ComRes 'Normal' UNS
UKIP 24
Lab 23
Con 17
LDs 1
Green 2
SNP 2
Plaid 10 -
Cheer up Kippers. It's 'Get Clegg Day'.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2629099/I-did-bad-thing-I-m-not-proud-Nick-Clegg-drunken-night-set-fire-rare-cacti-collection-judge-Munich.html
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Mr. Briskin, that's a valid perspective. I would make plain it was idle musing rather than me betting on things.
Mr. CD13, quite so0 -
It is quite unbelievable that you see it that way... I am just stating factssaddened said:
Victim It is then, thanks for the heads up.isam said:
I thought you'd skip them anyway!saddened said:
Are you intending to spend the day acting the victim or will you be moving on at some point? I'd like to know so I can skip over your posts today if required.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
It plays into UKIP's hands in the bigger picture, as the polls show, but I would rather see consistency thats all. It makes me feel bad for the other parties in a way when they unwittingly treat the new kid on the block the way a Racist Met Police officer treats a black kid, then accuses them of playing the victim when its pointed out
UKIP have had shit sent through the post, bricks lobbed through MEP's windows, Students abusing their OAP members, meetings being stormed , Asian and black candidates being called "racists" "fakes" and "traitors" by middle class students, all because they are making ground in the polls, yet the blame seems to lie with us.
Just imagine if it were Respect that were getting this kind of stick from right wingers0 -
I was being slightly sarcastic, apologies.MarkSenior said:
No they cannot , they only have 5 councillors now and even if they won every ward this year they would not be the largest party . I doubt that they will even have 10 councillors after this year's electionsTheScreamingEagles said:
They could be the largest party on KirkleesSandyRentool said:Did the Greens do unusually well in the council elections last time they coincided with the Euros?
Green gains on Kirklees? Wor lass would be pleased!
Also, I thought they had eight councillors?
Edit - It is 8 Green and Valley Independents.
http://www2.kirklees.gov.uk/you-kmc/kmc-howcouncilworks/councillors/profile/yourcouncillors.aspx0 -
UKIP's chance is way over 40%. The Conservatives are NOT 30% to win.0
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Greens haveanotherDave said:In the YouGov EUP poll the Greens are getting:
10% current-LD, 7% current-Labour, 2% current-Con.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rmxq05w0hg/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140514-EU.pdf
UKIP are getting
4% current-LD, 9% current-Labour, 22% current-Con.
19% 2010 LD, 7% 2010 Lab, 3% 2010 Con
UKIP have
18% 2010 LD, 15% 2010 Lab, 37% 2010 Con.
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SimonStClare said:
@Isam - At least someone can see the wood for the trees.
Is that the correct URL link ?
Haha.. it is me that cannot see the wood for the trees!
"For many years, the Ukip leader was ignored by the mainstream media. In the 2004 European elections, Ukip marked its first major breakthrough, winning 16 per cent of the seats. However, the BBC marked the party down as “other” in its news report the following day.
Now that Mr Farage can no longer be ignored, he is sneered at instead. Even so, it looks possible that next week he will come top in the national vote. This will be a truly astounding achievement. No political party in modern history – not even Neil Kinnock’s Labour in 1987 – has come under such sustained attack and misrepresentation. Mr Kinnock at least had The Guardian and the Daily Mirror; Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title, and several papers are running vendettas against him. Mr Kinnock was treated reasonably fairly by the broadcast media. This is not the case with Mr Farage: consider the lacerating contempt shown towards him by Channel 4 News and its chief presenter, Jon Snow. Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, has also abandoned his usual fairness when dealing with the party.
Consider the way Mr Robinson covered Ukip’s campaign launch three weeks ago. He did not seriously attempt to address its policies, as might have been expected. Instead, he tackled Mr Farage about the fact that he employed his German wife as his secretary. This was surely a story that Mr Robinson could and would have left to a junior reporter if he had been dealing with any other party"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10830882/British-politics-is-broken-and-only-Nigel-Farage-is-profiting.html
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I thought the Express was the paper batting for UKIP?isam said:Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title...
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If the Tories do win and or Labour or UKIP come third, I won't be on PB for a few days, I'll have broken a rib laughing.0
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We appear to have a genuine 3 horse race for the lead in the Euros.
Whatever the turnout, I do sincerely hope the LibDems get no seats at all. We all need a laugh now and then, and the party of in being turfed out would be pure cabaret.0 -
Mr. Eagles, what if it's UKIP, Lab, Con but the Greens beat the Lib Dems?0
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In related EU news, the economic recovery on the continent seems to be falling apart. Italy went backwards (-0.2% QoQ, -0.5% YoY), France stalled (0%) and the Netherlands continues to go backwards (-0.5% YoY, unemployment at 8.7%), Portugal has gone backwards (-0.7% QoQ). Only Germany seems to have pulled through properly, and even their recovery is now more like ours, based on rising domestic consumption and falling external demand.
With the spectre of deflation (which is something I don't believe the EC understands properly, they seem to think it might be good for southern Europe to have some price deflation to spur wage deflation) and economic growth stalling in western Europe I don't know what they are going to do next. If the French economy doesn't start to pick up soon I could see another crisis, it is the key determinant for the future of the EU. If Hollande can't reform the economy in the time the ECB has bought over the next year or so then everything will start going backwards again properly. One hopes that the government will continue to expand non-EU trade and ensure that we are not so dependent on the EU for economic growth.0 -
Reason why Ed's landlord bashing went down badly ?
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 3m
11% of people have a second home?Incredible stat http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/was/wealth-in-great-britain-wave-3/2010-2012/sty-facts-about-household-wealth.html …0 -
Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.0
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They do seem to be, good point.OblitusSumMe said:
I thought the Express was the paper batting for UKIP?isam said:Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title...
Peter Oborne wrote that article not me by the way, I posted the wrong link0 -
I've done exactly the same myself when I've had more than one tab open. ; )isam said:SimonStClare said:@Isam - At least someone can see the wood for the trees.
Is that the correct URL link ?
Haha.. it is me that cannot see the wood for the trees!0 -
The Greens defeating the Lib Dems wouldn't be expected. I kinda forecast that last month.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, what if it's UKIP, Lab, Con but the Greens beat the Lib Dems?
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You can say what you like about Nigel Farage. He is not omnipotent, he makes mistakes, he sometimes over enthuses but he is the only class leader in British politics today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10830882/British-politics-is-broken-and-only-Nigel-Farage-is-profiting.html
I'm not a Peter Oborne fan especially, but this time he is spot on.0 -
Mr. PB, cheers for that very interesting post.
I wonder how quickly and how far Euroland will decline, and the impact on the UK (both economically and politically).
How are plans for banking and fiscal integration coming along? I haven't heard anything about that for ages.0 -
Time for Kipper activists to protect themselves against all the brickbats thrown:isam said:
It is quite unbelievable that you see it that way... I am just stating factssaddened said:
Victim It is then, thanks for the heads up.isam said:
I thought you'd skip them anyway!saddened said:
Are you intending to spend the day acting the victim or will you be moving on at some point? I'd like to know so I can skip over your posts today if required.isam said:
Sit back and imagine what you would have posted if the target had been FarageToryJim said:
Yup, insulting and unfunny. Very poor show.Anorak said:I think that the Mash might have overdone it a little with this one:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
It plays into UKIP's hands in the bigger picture, as the polls show, but I would rather see consistency thats all. It makes me feel bad for the other parties in a way when they unwittingly treat the new kid on the block the way a Racist Met Police officer treats a black kid, then accuses them of playing the victim when its pointed out
UKIP have had shit sent through the post, bricks lobbed through MEP's windows, Students abusing their OAP members, meetings being stormed , Asian and black candidates being called "racists" "fakes" and "traitors" by middle class students, all because they are making ground in the polls, yet the blame seems to lie with us.
Just imagine if it were Respect that were getting this kind of stick from right wingers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BnoMO_9IQAEkYhB.jpg:large
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With only just over 30% of the electorate voting and the huge temptation to have a free go at anyone in any kind of authority that the Euros represent the pollsters have their work cut out. My suspicion is that if any of them get anywhere near it will be as much by luck as judgment.
Some trends seem likely.
Firstly, because the whole thing is gesture politics the vote will be spread more widely than the polls are generally indicating with lots of votes going to "others" who don't normally register.
Secondly, because of that and because UKIP will not be able to scoop the poll of the largest segment for these elections, the NOTA party, I suspect they will undershoot rather than overshoot the current estimates.
Thirdly, Labour will seriously undershoot in the areas where they don't have locals generating at least something of a GOTV operation. They always do.
Fourthly, the tories will undershoot as well because they are in government and kicking governments is really the point of this.
Fifthly, and slightly ominously, "the party of in" might very well be left with no seats at all. I can't think who, other than a completely dedicated party member, will vote Lib Dem in these elections.
Who will that leave in the lead? Have you got a die? I would give UKIP numbers 1-3, the tories 4 and Labour five and six. But it is pretty random. There is more chance of picking a winner in the Grand National.0 -
That is basically what most Climate Scientists said about 30-35 years ago.CD13 said:Re Global Warming (apologies in advance), but if the proponents had said that "The earth was showing signs of warming (as it does from time to time) and although there are many confounding factors, we know from lab experiments that greenhouse gases can warm the atmosphere, so it might be prudent to reduce emissions where convenient." I'd have been far more comfortable.
The Science has moved on a bit since then and your characterisation of the solutions suggested is inaccurate, to put it mildly.0 -
Biased articles? Smears? Lies? Bricks through windows?MikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
Which pollsters dont prompt for UKIP in Westminster VI Mike? Does that flatter the other parties scores?0 -
Is that the Peter Oborne that praised Gordon Brown at the start of his premiership.MikeK said:You can say what you like about Nigel Farage. He is not omnipotent, he makes mistakes, he sometimes over enthuses but he is the only class leader in British politics today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10830882/British-politics-is-broken-and-only-Nigel-Farage-is-profiting.html
I'm not a Peter Oborne fan especially, but this time he is spot on.
Yeah, Oborne knows how to pick them0 -
Ill be a nice few grand better off. Every cloud...TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do win and or Labour or UKIP come third, I won't be on PB for a few days, I'll have broken a rib laughing.
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The comments sections of the Telegraph (and to some degree the Spectator as well) is a hot-bed of angst, misery and ranting.MikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
If he were still around, I wonder whether that little ray of sunshine Coldstone would have converted to UKIP?
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Agree , 1 freak poll putting them ahead has coloured Mike's judgment . UKIP 60% Lab 30% and Con 10% are my estimates .Pulpstar said:UKIP's chance is way over 40%. The Conservatives are NOT 30% to win.
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Hollande can't reform his economy because he starts from a premise that is demonstrably false.MaxPB said:In related EU news, the economic recovery on the continent seems to be falling apart. Italy went backwards (-0.2% QoQ, -0.5% YoY), France stalled (0%) and the Netherlands continues to go backwards (-0.5% YoY, unemployment at 8.7%), Portugal has gone backwards (-0.7% QoQ). Only Germany seems to have pulled through properly, and even their recovery is now more like ours, based on rising domestic consumption and falling external demand.
With the spectre of deflation (which is something I don't believe the EC understands properly, they seem to think it might be good for southern Europe to have some price deflation to spur wage deflation) and economic growth stalling in western Europe I don't know what they are going to do next. If the French economy doesn't start to pick up soon I could see another crisis, it is the key determinant for the future of the EU. If Hollande can't reform the economy in the time the ECB has bought over the next year or so then everything will start going backwards again properly. One hopes that the government will continue to expand non-EU trade and ensure that we are not so dependent on the EU for economic growth.0 -
Dunno, UKIP @ 40% is a bold statement though. I'd say they were 'true' odds on myself ! Conservative chance at 30% is also a big overestimation of their chances methinks.MikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
If these were the true odds my book would be considerably greener, so this isn't my pocket talking. But like iSam I'll take 5/4 on UKIP 0 -
Can't speak for the Nats, and Mr Rifkind cannot be held responsible for his father: "In those days they shall say no more, The fathers have eaten a sour grape, and the children’s teeth are set on edge." But thanks for putting it up.Scott_P said:Here's a poser for the Nats.
An article written by Hugo Rifkind, London based sell-out, son of a Tory (a former Scottish Secretary under Thatcher no less), that they might actually agree with...
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/hugo-rifkind/9206231/scotlands-fate-is-more-important-than-david-camerons/
I see he's a bit challenged on train history in the sense of modern trains, though the Scots did contribute to the development of railways per se, en route from German mines to HS2, through the Tranent and Cockenzie Waggonway ...
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I'm looking forward to your LDs-only-lose-votes-where-conveniet theory meeting the voters. Perhaps the Election-Data chaps will produce some maps?MikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
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There's a lot for the Kippers to moan aboutMikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
Farage sells out to Cameron, principal agent of the EUSSR
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/05/farage-sells-out-to-cameron-principal-agent-of-the-eussr.html0 -
On the other hand that "freak poll" did come from ICM, which is always very highly regarded./ Not saying Con will top the poll, but when ICM polls show you something it's always worth sitting up to take notice....MarkSenior said:
Agree , 1 freak poll putting them ahead has coloured Mike's judgment . UKIP 60% Lab 30% and Con 10% are my estimates .Pulpstar said:UKIP's chance is way over 40%. The Conservatives are NOT 30% to win.
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I've been to a conference fringe featuring Oborne. It was hard not to start lobbing elements of the buffet at him, he is a monumental buffoon.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that the Peter Oborne that praised Gordon Brown at the start of his premiership.MikeK said:You can say what you like about Nigel Farage. He is not omnipotent, he makes mistakes, he sometimes over enthuses but he is the only class leader in British politics today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10830882/British-politics-is-broken-and-only-Nigel-Farage-is-profiting.html
I'm not a Peter Oborne fan especially, but this time he is spot on.
Yeah, Oborne knows how to pick them
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I would agree with that. We're now just a week away from the election, and the polls are reasonably consistent. Of the seven polls where the fieldwork was done on May 1st or later, six have the order of the top three as UKIP-Lab-Con, and those six have results in the following ranges:Pulpstar said:UKIP's chance is way over 40%. The Conservatives are NOT 30% to win.
UKIP 28% to 32%
Lab 25% to 28%
Con 21% to 24%
The only exception is ICM, which had Con in the lead (just): 27% Con to 26% UKIP. That looks like an outlier.
In practice, as Sean Fear points out upthread, the plethora of minor parties means the final big three vote-share figures will probably be lower all round, but the order looks reasonably robust. I think there is a chance that Labour will disappoint on the day, and maybe UKIP will outperform. Overall, I'm expecting UKIP/Lab/Con but wouldn't be too surprised if Labour come third.
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Though I'm generally in favour of the EU I do agree on your latter point. It would be the sort of result comedians would be wishing for. The jokes just write themselves.RochdalePioneers said:We appear to have a genuine 3 horse race for the lead in the Euros.
Whatever the turnout, I do sincerely hope the LibDems get no seats at all. We all need a laugh now and then, and the party of in being turfed out would be pure cabaret.0 -
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband · 4 mins
David Axelrod has joined me at Shadow Cabinet to discuss how we win and change Britain. pic.twitter.com/GvrYIPZ46Y
Poor old Ed...he's really not very photogenic is he?0 -
Ukip Deputy Leader of Hampshire CC held over assault charge.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11215174._/0 -
I shall laugh and laugh as OGH cries into his pots and wails away on a few threads, post 22nd May.anotherDave said:
I'm looking forward to your LDs-only-lose-votes-where-conveniet theory meeting the voters. Perhaps the Election-Data chaps will produce some maps?MikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
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That's a no brainer.GIN1138 said:
The comments sections of the Telegraph (and to some degree the Spectator as well) is a hot-bed of angst, misery and ranting.MikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
If he were still around, I wonder whether that little ray of sunshine Coldstone would have converted to UKIP?
I'm sure that on a nice sunny morning such as today, he's yomping across Dorset with a spring in his step, and a rucksack full of UKIP campaign literature on his back, chatting with fellow White Flighters.0 -
What is it about that interview that you think UKIP supporters should find objectionable?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a lot for the Kippers to moan aboutMikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
Farage sells out to Cameron, principal agent of the EUSSR
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/05/farage-sells-out-to-cameron-principal-agent-of-the-eussr.html
http://order-order.com/2014/05/14/farage-id-do-a-deal-with-dave/
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The voting numbers for the Chair of the HoC Defence Select Committee are available.
Rory Stewart defeated Julian Lewis by 226-212 in the seventh stage of voting after Julian Brazier was eliminated :
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/defence/Defence-Committee-chair-election-final-results.pdf0 -
The ICM Euro polling in 2009 was very poor and even comments from ICM staff are dubious of the accuracy of that poll .GIN1138 said:
On the other hand that "freak poll" did come from ICM, which is always very highly regarded./ Not saying Con will top the poll, but when ICM polls show you something it's always worth sitting up to take notice....MarkSenior said:
Agree , 1 freak poll putting them ahead has coloured Mike's judgment . UKIP 60% Lab 30% and Con 10% are my estimates .Pulpstar said:UKIP's chance is way over 40%. The Conservatives are NOT 30% to win.
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I wonder whether ICM will do another poll before next Thursday? I would imagine ICM would be keen to come up with something more "in-line" with other pollsters if they can?0
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They enjoy sex more .... and more often ?!?MikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
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