This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Opinium had the Tories 19% ahead in late November - less than three weeks before the December election.The outcome was a lead of 11.5% - without the benefit of the Covid 'rally around together' factor which will still be distorting the polls.
The 2020 POTUS campaign in a nutshell. The next six months are going to be all about Make America Great or China will be. Trump will be relentless on this. The virus came from China, they stole our jobs etc etc.
The 2020 POTUS campaign in a nutshell. The next six months are going to be all about Make America Great or China will be. Trump will be relentless on this. The virus came from China, they stole our jobs etc etc.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Opinium had the Tories 19% ahead in late November - less than three weeks before the December election.The outcome was a lead of 11.5% - without the benefit of the Covid 'rally around together' factor which will still be distorting the polls.
Opinium called the last election very well, the Tories could well be 15 points ahead of Labour now as the latest poll suggests. Covid rally round is not necessarily a thing and hasn't proven to be in some other European nations. What happens when Starmers weak subject Brexit is back in the spotlight? We have to go back a generation to find government polling leads this big 6 months after an election. It's a huge ask for Starmer and maybe his successor
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
Even by PB standards, this argument is risible. Who gives a fuck about opinion polls at the moment? They are the very definition of meaningless. Ed Davey could be ten points clear and it would still mean absolutely zilch.
Find something else to argue about. There’s plenty of options.
The 2020 POTUS campaign in a nutshell. The next six months are going to be all about Make America Great or China will be. Trump will be relentless on this. The virus came from China, they stole our jobs etc etc.
Blood-thinning drugs can help save Covid-19 patients' lives, leading British doctors have found, raising hopes of a major breakthrough in the race to find a treatment for the deadly virus.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Hold on there, bud. He hasn't saved millions of jobs yet. Furlough can't go on indefinitely and there will be many redundancies as the scheme winds down. Many more businesses will go to the wall, leaving more out of work. Meanwhile, taxes will eventually have to rise on those still in work to pay for it all.
I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Sunak basket just yet.
It's a fair prediction though. He certainly looks like a future PM more than anyone out there. Of course there will be redundancies but his actions will save a lot more jobs than if there hadn't been such a large scale government intervention. For those that wish to talk personal approval ratings then Sunak is currently streets ahead of Boris or Starmer.
Sunak looks more like a possible PM than anyone on the Tory side - with possible exceptions of Hunt and Gove. There will remain serious doubts as to whether he genuinely believes in such heavy government intervention and many will argue that he effectively had little choice. Why would voters be less likely to trust Starmer - who clearly does believe in a big role for the state?
Doesn't he get that it is not the risk to children themselves but their ability to spread the disease to others who are at higher risk which is the consideration?
Rationally yes. This is what I was trying to point out on the other thread, but received a lot of opposition from a "But what about the children?!" perspective.
I genuinely believe that much, maybe even the majority, of fear about restarting school is for people who are afraid of their children getting this mysterious evil killer disease and something horrifying happening to them. Rather than the more logical possibility of the kids bringing something back from school that affects the rest of the household or other people you have contact with. The risk to kids is quite possibly lower than it is from them picking up various other lurgies or dying in a school accident (surprisingly common) or having a traffic or cycling accident on the way there or back. But people don't react very well to the unknown. When faced with unknown risks, people tend to go into risk-minimisation mode even when the the risk involved is not known precisely but is known to be small.*
* (There are some extraordinary examples of this distaste for uncertainty in behavioural economics; one is a study in which people are willing to pay an average of $26 for a $50 gift certificate, but only $16 for a lottery that pays either a $50 or $100 gift certificate, with equal probability. and for the issue of unknown risk, the fascinating Ellsberg paradox and more generally ambiguity aversion. Exposing someone to COVID-related risk is inherently scarier because it involves unknowns. I think that may be particularly true when it concerns children, where you know you would feel extremely guilty about it if you exposed them to something which led to harm, even if you might have been prepared to take a similar risk yourself. Also relevant to the school closure issue is zero-risk bias, whereby people prefer to reduce a small risk to zero rather than achieve a greater reduction of a larger risk.)
My references to harm on the other thread may have led you to think that this refers to direct physical harm, the term when referring to duty of care is used more widely so widening proximity, meaning that not only the child but others close to them are affected. If we believe that children can plausibly spread infection like this, we are negligent if that spread takes place. I was confused why you were arguing about illness when my posts had been about children’s role in spreading the virus. This has legal implications that will be giving a fair number of schools or authorities a lot of concern.
Sorry, I'd assumed you were referring to transmission between children. This makes more sense now. Though there were other voices on the thread who seemed worried about protecting their own children - my suspicion that this is the main driver of public fear around school reopening wasn't based on what you said!
The fact that in any setting the interaction between two people (whether that's staff, customers, clients, volunteers, service-users, whatever) has potential knock-on effects to a much wider circle of people is a bugger to organisations of all shapes and sizes. I suspect the government is going to end up issuing an awful lot of sector-specific guidance before this is all over so that organisations have something to point to their compliance with.
The 2020 POTUS campaign in a nutshell. The next six months are going to be all about Make America Great or China will be. Trump will be relentless on this. The virus came from China, they stole our jobs etc etc.
The 2020 POTUS campaign in a nutshell. The next six months are going to be all about Make America Great or China will be. Trump will be relentless on this. The virus came from China, they stole our jobs etc etc.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Opinium had the Tories 19% ahead in late November - less than three weeks before the December election.The outcome was a lead of 11.5% - without the benefit of the Covid 'rally around together' factor which will still be distorting the polls.
Opinium called the last election very well, the Tories could well be 15 points ahead of Labour now as the latest poll suggests. Covid rally round is not necessarily a thing and hasn't proven to be in some other European nations. What happens when Starmers weak subject Brexit is back in the spotlight? We have to go back a generation to find government polling leads this big 6 months after an election. It's a huge ask for Starmer and maybe his successor
What will happen when Brexit is back in the spotlight will depend on what has happened. According to Project Fear, Brexit, especially on WTO terms, would cause immense damage to the economy. Suppose Project Fear was right; after all, it did used to be Conservative government policy to oppose Brexit on these grounds.
The 2020 POTUS campaign in a nutshell. The next six months are going to be all about Make America Great or China will be. Trump will be relentless on this. The virus came from China, they stole our jobs etc etc.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Hold on there, bud. He hasn't saved millions of jobs yet. Furlough can't go on indefinitely and there will be many redundancies as the scheme winds down. Many more businesses will go to the wall, leaving more out of work. Meanwhile, taxes will eventually have to rise on those still in work to pay for it all.
I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Sunak basket just yet.
It's a fair prediction though. He certainly looks like a future PM more than anyone out there. Of course there will be redundancies but his actions will save a lot more jobs than if there hadn't been such a large scale government intervention. For those that wish to talk personal approval ratings then Sunak is currently streets ahead of Boris or Starmer.
In time I suspect Sunak will be known as the tax-raising Tory. He simply has to, to pay for it all. That will not play well within his own party or with the core vote, even if he remains popular with the wider public.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Hold on there, bud. He hasn't saved millions of jobs yet. Furlough can't go on indefinitely and there will be many redundancies as the scheme winds down. Many more businesses will go to the wall, leaving more out of work. Meanwhile, taxes will eventually have to rise on those still in work to pay for it all.
I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Sunak basket just yet.
It's a fair prediction though. He certainly looks like a future PM more than anyone out there. Of course there will be redundancies but his actions will save a lot more jobs than if there hadn't been such a large scale government intervention. For those that wish to talk personal approval ratings then Sunak is currently streets ahead of Boris or Starmer.
In time I suspect Sunak will be known as the tax-raising Tory. He simply has to, to pay for it all. That will not play well within his own party or with the core vote, even if he remains popular with the wider public.
Time to reverse ferret! The Observer reports right wing think tanks support Corbyn and McDonnell's Boris and Rishi's anti-austerity spending plans. Maybe they all read pb!
In a shift of stance that will give Rishi Sunak political clearance to ramp up UK debts to levels not seen in peacetime, the Adam Smith Institute, the Centre for Policy Studies, the Institute of Economic Affairs and Policy Exchange said they endorsed public spending increases to confront the coronavirus outbreak and state-funded investment to boost the recovery.
The Morning Star Sunday Times (in its rich list edition which normally would see its print run double) questions government subsidies for billionaires.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Hold on there, bud. He hasn't saved millions of jobs yet. Furlough can't go on indefinitely and there will be many redundancies as the scheme winds down. Many more businesses will go to the wall, leaving more out of work. Meanwhile, taxes will eventually have to rise on those still in work to pay for it all.
I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Sunak basket just yet.
It's a fair prediction though. He certainly looks like a future PM more than anyone out there. Of course there will be redundancies but his actions will save a lot more jobs than if there hadn't been such a large scale government intervention. For those that wish to talk personal approval ratings then Sunak is currently streets ahead of Boris or Starmer.
In time I suspect Sunak will be known as the tax-raising Tory. He simply has to, to pay for it all. That will not play well within his own party or with the core vote, even if he remains popular with the wider public.
Nor will it get past Boris nor through the Commons as with a Tory majority of 80 Tory MPs will vote down tax rises
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Opinium had the Tories 19% ahead in late November - less than three weeks before the December election.The outcome was a lead of 11.5% - without the benefit of the Covid 'rally around together' factor which will still be distorting the polls.
Opinium called the last election very well, the Tories could well be 15 points ahead of Labour now as the latest poll suggests. Covid rally round is not necessarily a thing and hasn't proven to be in some other European nations. What happens when Starmers weak subject Brexit is back in the spotlight? We have to go back a generation to find government polling leads this big 6 months after an election. It's a huge ask for Starmer and maybe his successor
There are precedents. In October 1997 - 5 months beyond the 1997 election - there were polls giving Labour leads as big as 38% and 40%. In the similar period after the 2001 election Labour enjoyed leads of between 17% and 31%. In neither case did the Blair Government have a major pandemic to rally the nation to boost its support. However, such polls failed to predict the outcome of the subsequent election by very wide margins.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Hold on there, bud. He hasn't saved millions of jobs yet. Furlough can't go on indefinitely and there will be many redundancies as the scheme winds down. Many more businesses will go to the wall, leaving more out of work. Meanwhile, taxes will eventually have to rise on those still in work to pay for it all.
I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Sunak basket just yet.
It's a fair prediction though. He certainly looks like a future PM more than anyone out there. Of course there will be redundancies but his actions will save a lot more jobs than if there hadn't been such a large scale government intervention. For those that wish to talk personal approval ratings then Sunak is currently streets ahead of Boris or Starmer.
In time I suspect Sunak will be known as the tax-raising Tory. He simply has to, to pay for it all. That will not play well within his own party or with the core vote, even if he remains popular with the wider public.
Time to reverse ferret! The Observer reports right wing think tanks support Corbyn and McDonnell's Boris and Rishi's anti-austerity spending plans. Maybe they all read pb!
In a shift of stance that will give Rishi Sunak political clearance to ramp up UK debts to levels not seen in peacetime, the Adam Smith Institute, the Centre for Policy Studies, the Institute of Economic Affairs and Policy Exchange said they endorsed public spending increases to confront the coronavirus outbreak and state-funded investment to boost the recovery.
If he's able to pay for it all by borrowing, then the man's a magician. But I suspect taxes will have to rise before the next election, which won't go down well with most Tories. For that reason alone I can't see him as a future PM. He will have broad appeal to the electorate, but will lack the kind of narrow appeal needed to gain leadership of the party in the first place.
That doesn't mean I think he's doing a bad job, by the way. I just don't think he will be thanked when the economic reality bites.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Hold on there, bud. He hasn't saved millions of jobs yet. Furlough can't go on indefinitely and there will be many redundancies as the scheme winds down. Many more businesses will go to the wall, leaving more out of work. Meanwhile, taxes will eventually have to rise on those still in work to pay for it all.
I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Sunak basket just yet.
It's a fair prediction though. He certainly looks like a future PM more than anyone out there. Of course there will be redundancies but his actions will save a lot more jobs than if there hadn't been such a large scale government intervention. For those that wish to talk personal approval ratings then Sunak is currently streets ahead of Boris or Starmer.
In time I suspect Sunak will be known as the tax-raising Tory. He simply has to, to pay for it all. That will not play well within his own party or with the core vote, even if he remains popular with the wider public.
Time to reverse ferret! The Observer reports right wing think tanks support Corbyn and McDonnell's Boris and Rishi's anti-austerity spending plans. Maybe they all read pb!
In a shift of stance that will give Rishi Sunak political clearance to ramp up UK debts to levels not seen in peacetime, the Adam Smith Institute, the Centre for Policy Studies, the Institute of Economic Affairs and Policy Exchange said they endorsed public spending increases to confront the coronavirus outbreak and state-funded investment to boost the recovery.
If he's able to pay for it all by borrowing, then the man's a magician. But I suspect taxes will have to rise before the next election, which won't go down well with most Tories. For that reason alone I can't see him as a future PM. He will have broad appeal to the electorate, but will lack the kind of narrow appeal needed to gain leadership of the party in the first place.
That doesn't mean I think he's doing a bad job, by the way. I just don't think he will be thanked when the economic reality bites.
For the umpteenth time there will not be tax rises, the Tories have a majority of 80, Tory MPs will vote down tax rises and they will not pass the Commons.
Plus public spending as a percentage of GDP is down to 38% from near 50% in 2010 and the loans Government has provided are temporary not permanent and will be repaid
Italian PM being honest about the situation. We can't just keep waiting hoping for a vaccine, it can't be 100% safe, we have to take a calculated risk.
Before I clicked, I'd assumed this would be a critique of what we have come to know and some have come to love as the precautionary principle but it just seems a confused rant about cycling to beauty spots and inconsistencies in lockdowns. Lefties are plotting to restrict freedom-loving cyclists and funnel them into libraries, apparently, although in this country libraries are closed and cycle lanes are being given new government subsidies.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Hold on there, bud. He hasn't saved millions of jobs yet. Furlough can't go on indefinitely and there will be many redundancies as the scheme winds down. Many more businesses will go to the wall, leaving more out of work. Meanwhile, taxes will eventually have to rise on those still in work to pay for it all.
I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Sunak basket just yet.
It's a fair prediction though. He certainly looks like a future PM more than anyone out there. Of course there will be redundancies but his actions will save a lot more jobs than if there hadn't been such a large scale government intervention. For those that wish to talk personal approval ratings then Sunak is currently streets ahead of Boris or Starmer.
In time I suspect Sunak will be known as the tax-raising Tory. He simply has to, to pay for it all. That will not play well within his own party or with the core vote, even if he remains popular with the wider public.
Time to reverse ferret! The Observer reports right wing think tanks support Corbyn and McDonnell's Boris and Rishi's anti-austerity spending plans. Maybe they all read pb!
In a shift of stance that will give Rishi Sunak political clearance to ramp up UK debts to levels not seen in peacetime, the Adam Smith Institute, the Centre for Policy Studies, the Institute of Economic Affairs and Policy Exchange said they endorsed public spending increases to confront the coronavirus outbreak and state-funded investment to boost the recovery.
If he's able to pay for it all by borrowing, then the man's a magician. But I suspect taxes will have to rise before the next election, which won't go down well with most Tories. For that reason alone I can't see him as a future PM. He will have broad appeal to the electorate, but will lack the kind of narrow appeal needed to gain leadership of the party in the first place.
That doesn't mean I think he's doing a bad job, by the way. I just don't think he will be thanked when the economic reality bites.
The economic reality is that George Osborne flatlined the recovery he inherited from Labour in 2010 (insert Ed Balls' hand gesture here) and everything the austerity hawks told us was wrong. Conservatives must rip up their Cameron-era briefing notes. Boris, incidentally, never believed in austerity.
The priority now is to expand the economy or at least offset its contraction. As the economy grows, scary things will fall as a percentage of GDP even if nothing else happens, which they will because the tax base and take will increase, and spending on supporting unemployment will fall. In the long term, debt, deficit and so on will indeed need to be addressed but the long term is a long way off and these problems may well have disappeared by then anyway.
The 2020 POTUS campaign in a nutshell. The next six months are going to be all about Make America Great or China will be. Trump will be relentless on this. The virus came from China, they stole our jobs etc etc.
Where will the poor donkeys go? Surrey is so nice.
£10 million sounds a lot for a field, even one containing pedigree donkeys. Does the Mail's valuation depend on its being granted planning permission for housing?
Yep.I thought that too. The "up to" being a clue. My house is also worth up to £10m As are my socks
I know British homes are getting smaller and it's really great and chic and all that (unless you're weird enough to care about your health or happiness), and I'm squinting at the red caption here so forgive the numerical accuracy, but could you really fit 70 new homes inside your socks? And even if they did fit, Borrower-style, wouldn't it smell a bit? (NB resewing your socks into Klein bottles, hence being able to fit several billion homes "inside" - and simultaneously "outside" - each, does not count.)
Average house size without looking at average household size is deeply misleading. You need to measure average space per person.
Italian PM being honest about the situation. We can't just keep waiting hoping for a vaccine, it can't be 100% safe, we have to take a calculated risk.
That's not the choice. East Asia isn't just waiting hoping for a virus, you suppress it by being fast and persistent with the interventions that give you the most effect for the least disruption, so you don't have to do the less effective things with the most disruption.
Or you can reopen the gyms and the churches now, then in a few weeks you discover it's getting out of control again, and you're back in full-scale economy-freezing freedom-destroying lockdown.
Restez implies that the subject is already being careful and should remain so. Soyez has the meaning that the state of caution is unknown or neutral and a transition to care is appropriate.
In any case, soyez sage would be the preferable and more typically vernacular formulation.
Restez implies that the subject is already being careful and should remain so. Soyez has the meaning that the state of caution is unknown or neutral and a transition to care is appropriate.
In any case, soyez sage would be the preferable and more typically vernacular formulation.
This header was maybe written before tonight's Opinium VI but although early days it does look a bit like Labour have picked another dud. They seem to be looking no better than Corbyn did and that's after 6 weeks with Starmer as leader who hasn't given the party a boost since the dire election result. I always thought Nandy looked the better option to win red wall votes back, she just seems less stuffy and more in touch. Obviously he needs longer to make his mark but it looks like Tory voters have so far made the judgement that they prefer him to Corbyn but will stick with Boris. Perhaps picking someone with such Brexit baggage as Stamer would always alienate them when it came to winning back the working class voters they lost over the past 2 decades.
A lot of wishful thinking there with the Tory lead already having dropped from 26% to 15% - a swing of 5.5%. Not at all unlikely that Labour will be ahead before the end of the year.
This is a lot of backtracking from `when Labour get a proper leader they will be streets ahead as Boris is awful` Let's face it the lead is even bigger than the election and Starmer is making little to no headway beyond his personal ratings. I suppose what you might be staying is Labour is too toxic for most and the party is holding back Starmer more than the other way round.
Either way even they most optimistic Labour supporter will admit this isn't exactly the bounce they would have expected after ditching Corbyn.
In terms of leadership ratings there appears to have been a big boost, but party poll shares are still distorted - to Tory advantage - by the Covid crisis. Were an election to be held, the Tories would be likely to lose over half this poll lead . Once the economic tsunami takes hold , a further big switch is likely.
That's just guess work in fairness. If you want another guess then if the Tories are at risk of not winning in 2024 under Boris they have a ready made election winner in Sunak. Are the swing voters really going to pick the stale lawyer in his 60s over the young, fresher guy who saved millions of jobs with compassionate economics when the virus hit? The Tories not only have a current winner they have a future winner and that must scare the life out of the most ardent Labour supporters.
Hold on there, bud. He hasn't saved millions of jobs yet. Furlough can't go on indefinitely and there will be many redundancies as the scheme winds down. Many more businesses will go to the wall, leaving more out of work. Meanwhile, taxes will eventually have to rise on those still in work to pay for it all.
I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Sunak basket just yet.
It's a fair prediction though. He certainly looks like a future PM more than anyone out there. Of course there will be redundancies but his actions will save a lot more jobs than if there hadn't been such a large scale government intervention. For those that wish to talk personal approval ratings then Sunak is currently streets ahead of Boris or Starmer.
In time I suspect Sunak will be known as the tax-raising Tory. He simply has to, to pay for it all. That will not play well within his own party or with the core vote, even if he remains popular with the wider public.
Time to reverse ferret! The Observer reports right wing think tanks support Corbyn and McDonnell's Boris and Rishi's anti-austerity spending plans. Maybe they all read pb!
In a shift of stance that will give Rishi Sunak political clearance to ramp up UK debts to levels not seen in peacetime, the Adam Smith Institute, the Centre for Policy Studies, the Institute of Economic Affairs and Policy Exchange said they endorsed public spending increases to confront the coronavirus outbreak and state-funded investment to boost the recovery.
I am not an economist, but doesn't it make sense to print money when the danger is deflation, not inflation. And with the economy in freefall, presumably there must be some deflationary worries.
I think anyone who has been to Oxted knows that the land is incredibly expensive. The only folk I know who live there are multi multi millionaires. I think Starmer needs to drop the working class act, Sunak was more privileged than starmer but doesn't try and hide it and I think people like him more for it
I never thought I'd see a donkey sanctuary that the Mail on Sunday didn't like, but I guess I underestimated their desperation to carry out a pathetic hatchet job on Keir Starmer. What a sorry excuse for journalism.
Comments
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1261793132020224005
This is bad for Biden imho.
Sadly, looks like four more years for Trump. I feel sick.
https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-ad-china-trump-coronavirus-racist-xenophobic-2020-4?op=1
Find something else to argue about. There’s plenty of options.
Blood-thinning drugs can help save Covid-19 patients' lives, leading British doctors have found, raising hopes of a major breakthrough in the race to find a treatment for the deadly virus.
London specialists made the breakthrough after discovering coronavirus triggered potentially deadly blood clots in every seriously ill patient they tested using pioneering scanning technology.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/16/blood-thinning-drugs-can-help-save-covid-19-patients-lives/
The fact that in any setting the interaction between two people (whether that's staff, customers, clients, volunteers, service-users, whatever) has potential knock-on effects to a much wider circle of people is a bugger to organisations of all shapes and sizes. I suspect the government is going to end up issuing an awful lot of sector-specific guidance before this is all over so that organisations have something to point to their compliance with.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/gop-memo-anti-china-coronavirus-207244
It looks like the President (who has been anti-China for decades) is making a virtue out of necessity. Biden too.
In a shift of stance that will give Rishi Sunak political clearance to ramp up UK debts to levels not seen in peacetime, the Adam Smith Institute, the Centre for Policy Studies, the Institute of Economic Affairs and Policy Exchange said they endorsed public spending increases to confront the coronavirus outbreak and state-funded investment to boost the recovery.
The support for widespread state intervention to rescue the economy came as Boris Johnson told backbench Tory MPs there were no plans to impose a public sector wage freeze or other austerity measures to bring down public spending in the crisis.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/16/thatcherite-thinktanks-back-increase-public-spending-in-lockdown
It was intended as a lifeline to Britain’s workers during the coronavirus crisis, and it has surely saved millions from unemployment. Yet at least 20 British billionaires have also benefitted from the government’s furlough scheme since it launched in March.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/rich-list/furlough-scheme-billionaires-uk-sunday-times-rich-list-2020-vmb0kmxq5 (paywall)
That doesn't mean I think he's doing a bad job, by the way. I just don't think he will be thanked when the economic reality bites.
Plus public spending as a percentage of GDP is down to 38% from near 50% in 2010 and the loans Government has provided are temporary not permanent and will be repaid
BBC News - Coronavirus: Italy takes 'calculated risk' in easing restrictions - PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52687448
The priority now is to expand the economy or at least offset its contraction. As the economy grows, scary things will fall as a percentage of GDP even if nothing else happens, which they will because the tax base and take will increase, and spending on supporting unemployment will fall. In the long term, debt, deficit and so on will indeed need to be addressed but the long term is a long way off and these problems may well have disappeared by then anyway.
https://twitter.com/Breaking24Seven/status/1261525099720716288?s=19
Or you can reopen the gyms and the churches now, then in a few weeks you discover it's getting out of control again, and you're back in full-scale economy-freezing freedom-destroying lockdown.
In any case, soyez sage would be the preferable and more typically vernacular formulation.
'Stay alert' certainly is worthy of parody.