It is one thing disapproving of the government's performance, it is another thinking anyone else would have done any better.
People are simultaneously fed up of lockdown and scared to come out of it.
The problem for the government is that this has happened on their watch. I don't think Cameron and Osborne would have done much differently to Brown and Darling in 2008, but Labour suffered because they were in power when the bad times arrived.
One could argue that Labour suffered because of their spending pre-2008, but then I suspect the actions of the current government in the run up to COVID-19 will receive a lot of scrutiny over the next four years.
Yorkshire is God's own country, the Garden of Eden was located in the Yorkshire Dales, why wouldn't you want to visit Yorkshire?
Once he was over Hadrian's wall he would have been on a home run. I wonder how he coped with an over enthusiastic plod North of the Border? Maybe he wore the uniform?
The SNP were trying to force the BTP in Scotland to merge with Police Scotland.
Was out playing golf today - course was jam packed full of the residents of Essex breaking free of the lockdown.
Local parks were rammed too - groups of 2-4 drinking outdoors.
Lockdown is over.
Everything is still shut: pubs, clubs, sports, theatres, cinemas, restaurants, shopping centres. There's a little more socialising among those willing to take the risk but most of the obvious transmission vectors are still out of bounds and everyone I know is staying at home. It was, in any case, a very British lockdown.
Which reminds me... If lockdown is a devolved issue why didn't Scotland and Wales do it sooner?
There is a wider point to this. At least 30000 have died. At least 50000 suspected. How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few. In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things. They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness. Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions. Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war. Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.
I apologise if I caused any offence, but his post was speculating on the impact of this on the fortunes of the government.
Personally, I still think the economic fallout and how the government handles that will be a bigger factor.
I am sure you are right. There will be some inheritance windfalls from this.
My own mother in law is in a nursing home with a Covid-19 outbreak. She is 87, but enjoys life despite dementia. I wouldn't want her to suffer, but recognise she is unlikely to have a long time with us.
Losing her without being able to see her, and comfort her would be painful in a way that would far outlast any inheritance.
Opinium in Observer Con 49 Lab 34 LD 6 Grn 3 Ukip 1
First poll to show Labour above its 2019 GB result of 33%.
Amazing still 15 point lead and why UKIP
Not really in the circumstances. We are still some way from normal politics.The trend though is significant. Moreover, in the extremely hypothetical event of a GE soon, I doubt that the Tories would better their 2015 and 2010 results - ie a 6% -7% lead over Labour.
On topic, I suspect the government's approval rating will continue to fall. Partly because of the crisis, and the slow improvement in death rates - unless I'm mistaken, the number of headline daily deaths reported in the UK for the last week has been second only to the USA on pretty much every day, and most folk now think that the government is no longer having a "good crisis" - they did back in March and early April, and Boris's illness I'm sure improved their ratings.
But I also think that the government overall is weak, and is increasingly seen to be so. I can go along with Boris being able and charismatic - he is, on his good days - but it's not just about leaders. Day after day at the press conference dull middle-aged men in suits are wheeled out to toe the line, and none of them, with the possible exception of Sunak, show any charisma or natural rapport with the audience. Hancock has been sort of okay most of the time, and Gove is his normal marmite self. But Raab, Williamson, Sharma, Jenrick, Shapps, Eustice, Barclay (QT last night) - all as dull as ditchwater, interchangeable, and singularly unimpressive in answering questions. (At least Rees-Mogg is a bit interesting!) And as for women - Patel has been hopeless and kept away, and no other female minister has featured as far as I know. Are there any other women in leading positions? I'll bet the public coudn't name any of the female cabinet members other than Patel, with the possible exception of Liz Truss, who also seems to be kept away from the stage (understandably). The government feels incredibly male (regardless of the actual composition of the cabinet) and rather stale (after only 6 months in power). So, my argument is that Boris's judgement is to be questioned. He has appointed a pretty poor, very dull, cabinet - a cabinet of few of the talents, rather than all of them. I wonder why?
In those days, because of Bretton Woods, we were effectively on the Gold Standard. If you ran a trade deficit, your stock of reserves a the Federal Bank of New York would diminish. You couldn't just print money to get yourself out of trouble because you were obliged to maintain a fixed exchange rate to the dollar, which was in turn fixed to gold.
This created big difficulties for governments.
But it also stopped governments from running unsustainable policies. If domestic demand ran ahead of domestic production, you needed to stamp down on domestic demand. It was brutal. But it also meant that you couldn't have a situation where you ran a massive deficit for a decade.
There were few, if any, systematic crises in the Bretton Woods era. Countries, broadly, lived inside their means.
And Bretton Woods, of course, was a response to the hyper-inflation and competitive devaluations from the pre-war era.
I wonder, or rather perhaps I should say I suspect, that we have forgotten those lessons. We now think we can print without consequence.
Edit to add: there's a great chapter in John Brooks' Business Adventures on a Bretton Woods era sterling crisis that's well worth a read.
I think that's rather rose-tinted analysis of Bretton Woods. The gold standard, even in its modified form as the gold exchange standard, means your monetary policy is basically hostage to changes in dentistry and fashion in the Middle East.
But even if it's right, it's irrelevant today. It was a very different world. The system relied on a non-inflationary and hegemonic United States, which is no longer on offer. Also, exchange controls, which simply aren't thinkable today.
And it was heavily biased in favour of surplus countries, like the euro today. Keynes realised that, and tried to include measures to force creditor adjustment, but the Americans wouldn't listen.
As well as the body count, the general relaxing of the lockdown is unpopular, even if individual measures aren't. A lot of people are still very scared and as humans we are shit at assessing risk, so i bet lots of parents are very unhappy that government want schools to start opening up even if risk to little johnny is absolutely minute.
I think a lot of people think if we just sit out for another month or two this will have gone away, so it seems reckless for the government to be nudging us to get out again.
On topic, I suspect the government's approval rating will continue to fall. Partly because of the crisis, and the slow improvement in death rates - unless I'm mistaken, the number of headline daily deaths reported in the UK for the last week has been second only to the USA on pretty much every day, and most folk now think that the government is no longer having a "good crisis" - they did back in March and early April, and Boris's illness I'm sure improved their ratings.
But I also think that the government overall is weak, and is increasingly seen to be so. I can go along with Boris being able and charismatic - he is, on his good days - but it's not just about leaders. Day after day at the press conference dull middle-aged men in suits are wheeled out to toe the line, and none of them, with the possible exception of Sunak, show any charisma or natural rapport with the audience. Hancock has been sort of okay most of the time, and Gove is his normal marmite self. But Raab, Williamson, Sharma, Jenrick, Shapps, Eustice, Barclay (QT last night) - all as dull as ditchwater, interchangeable, and singularly unimpressive in answering questions. (At least Rees-Mogg is a bit interesting!) And as for women - Patel has been hopeless and kept away, and no other female minister has featured as far as I know. Are there any other women in leading positions? I'll bet the public coudn't name any of the female cabinet members other than Patel, with the possible exception of Liz Truss, who also seems to be kept away from the stage (understandably). The government feels incredibly male (regardless of the actual composition of the cabinet) and rather stale (after only 6 months in power). So, my argument is that Boris's judgement is to be questioned. He has appointed a pretty poor, very dull, cabinet - a cabinet of few of the talents, rather than all of them. I wonder why?
I think that is fair
I think the present lot, on all sides, is uninspiring
There is a wider point to this. At least 30000 have died. At least 50000 suspected. How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few. In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things. They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness. Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions. Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war. Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.
That's OK. No offence was taken nor meant. I don't blame the government at all. But I know a few people who do. Once you replicate that across all the excess deaths it starts to add up. And it is a difficult impression to shift.
I'm sorry for your loss, my comment was only semi serious (I do think if children were dying in substantial numbers, then the government and people would be behaving very differently).
As for the potential electoral impact from people directly affected by this, I wonder how many of the relatives live in marginal constituencies? I'd suggest perhaps not that many.
Keir gets a boost for not being Corbyn.....but not translating into any switch back to the Labour Party. I am not surprised...I still have PTSD at the Corbyn era. Our party picked him (fucking twice) for leader....so is it a shock that the British public doesn't trust us yet?
As well as the body count, the general relaxing of the lockdown is unpopular, even if individual measures aren't. A lot of people are still very scared and as humans we are shit at assessing risk, .
Not sure it's that. We're more terrified than any other country. It's more that the government did much too thorough a job in scaring people, and in telling them to support healthcare workers, and the broadcast media mostly brought it. People here mostly trust the government, even if they don't like the party in power.
Also, our government, like many others, is in effect paying people to take a staycation, so the incentive for many middle-aged people with comfortable homes is simply to freeload and dump the bill on their children's generation.
I left the BMA for several reasons, but one was spending too much time on political issues unrelated to terms and conditions of service, and being pisspoor at their main role. I am now in a proper union.
Sods law with Keir....just as he is getting a foothold with the Daily Telegraph and the oldies, they are pretty much all going to get whacked by the second and third waves.....
I left the BMA for several reasons, but one was spending too much time on political issues unrelated to terms and conditions of service, and being pisspoor at their main role. I am now in a proper union.
I had some run ins with the BMA and the Royal Colleges in my time.....I still have the scars.....
It is one thing disapproving of the government's performance, it is another thinking anyone else would have done any better.
People are simultaneously fed up of lockdown and scared to come out of it.
The problem for the government is that this has happened on their watch. I don't think Cameron and Osborne would have done much differently to Brown and Darling in 2008, but Labour suffered because they were in power when the bad times arrived.
One could argue that Labour suffered because of their spending pre-2008, but then I suspect the actions of the current government in the run up to COVID-19 will receive a lot of scrutiny over the next four years.
Yes, sometimes you are just in the wrong place at the wrong time and there's nothing much you can do about it. I doubt there will be a smoking gun, though, despite the media thinking they've found one daily.
The one thing in the Tories favour is that Starmer is not Blair, despite all the love-ins. And a lot of the red wall won't be terribly keen on him.
As well as the body count, the general relaxing of the lockdown is unpopular, even if individual measures aren't. A lot of people are still very scared and as humans we are shit at assessing risk, so i bet lots of parents are very unhappy that government want schools to start opening up even if risk to little johnny is absolutely minute.
I think a lot of people think if we just sit out for another month or two this will have gone away, so it seems reckless for the government to be nudging us to get out again.
Of course that's not true. If enough individuals are desperate enough to get out in the fresh air, meet their friends and visit their relatives then the police can't do much about that, but businesses are much easier to control and the Government can easily keep the hospitality and leisure sector firmly closed until almost all of it has expired through strangulation.
Mass unemployment, endless social distancing, don't visit Mum for Christmas unless you want her to die and never get within two metres of someone you don't live with ever, ever again is all we've got to look forward to from this point on. There'll be a politely spaced queue for people to throw themselves off Beachy Head this Winter.
Attlee being interviewed on BBC Parliament's 1964 repeat now
Attlee then was 81 but came across as far older than people we see today such as Michael Heseltine, Nigel Lawson, Shirley Williams and Roy Hattersley - all of whom are now quite a few years older.
I left the BMA for several reasons, but one was spending too much time on political issues unrelated to terms and conditions of service, and being pisspoor at their main role. I am now in a proper union.
I had some run ins with the BMA and the Royal Colleges in my time.....I still have the scars.....
What union are you in now?
The HCSA.
When I worked for the Secret Police, investigating suspected medical miscreants, I was so impressed with how fierce and well briefed the HCSA reps were compared to the supine BMA ones, that I signed up myself.
When in a workplace dispute, I want a pit bull as an advocate, not a poodle! There is a time to be reasonable, and a time to tool up.
Opinium in Observer Con 49 Lab 34 LD 6 Grn 3 Ukip 1
First poll to show Labour above its 2019 GB result of 33%.
So almost no change at all in VI numbers - Con 0, Lab +1.
Seems at odds with big fall in Govt approval, fall in Johnson approval and increase in Starmer approval.
If we accept the proposition that UK politics are moving more towards the US i.e. based on cultural values, than economic ones - which I think is right - then the problem Labour has is that its natural recruiting ground (liberal-minded socially and environmentally, pro-tolerant society (in its view)) is split between 3 parties, itself, the Lib Dems and the Greens. The Tories, on the other hand, have managed a very successful pivot to occupy virtually all of the socially conservative vote, with the exception of most of the BAME population (but even here they are making some inroads).
If Labour wants to win power again, the best strategy would be to portray itself fully as the party of socially liberally voters and:
- stop trying to chase WWC votes - accept yours and their values on the main dividing line of politics are increasingly irreconcilable and try and milk the remaining WWC support you can get. In inner-city areas, rely on your strength in the Muslim / Black vote to get you over the line; - smother the Lib Dems and Greens and embrace their policies so they become irrelevant and seen as a wasted vote; - concentrate your resources on suburban seats outside the main cities (so I'm thinking the likes of Chipping Barnet and Chingford). If what is said is true that there will be an exodus of professionals from the big cities to smaller towns, this may help to get you more votes
As well as the body count, the general relaxing of the lockdown is unpopular, even if individual measures aren't. A lot of people are still very scared and as humans we are shit at assessing risk, so i bet lots of parents are very unhappy that government want schools to start opening up even if risk to little johnny is absolutely minute.
I think a lot of people think if we just sit out for another month or two this will have gone away, so it seems reckless for the government to be nudging us to get out again.
Of course that's not true. If enough individuals are desperate enough to get out in the fresh air, meet their friends and visit their relatives then the police can't do much about that, but businesses are much easier to control and the Government can easily keep the hospitality and leisure sector firmly closed until almost all of it has expired through strangulation.
Mass unemployment, endless social distancing, don't visit Mum for Christmas unless you want her to die and never get within two metres of someone you don't live with ever, ever again is all we've got to look forward to from this point on. There'll be a politely spaced queue for people to throw themselves off Beachy Head this Winter.
Quite.
I see a worst of all possible worlds scenario developing, where most people realise the disease isn't fatal unless you're over 65 or fat, and mingle more or less freely, enjoying a paid holiday through furlough while crying "butcher!" if Boris dares to tell people to go back to work.
A young David Dimbleby at Euston. Note the sign saying "Watford electric lines" for platform 8 (the third rail lines) - presumably that would soon have to change with the electrification of the WCML
Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.
The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.
If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view
There is a long way to go yet. Boris can crash Covid, crash the economy and be back on the up by the time 2024 comes around.
I don't concur with David Herdson's view. The punters love Boris even if I don't.
The punters do love Boris but will they love him if all that bullish optimism turns to dust? I think that leave voters in particular were heavily invested in believing what Boris was saying in the GE and Boris is very good at telling people what they want to hear.
Tammy Duckworth has an impressive back story and is truly a remarkable person for what she has overcome and done, and an inspiration as a human being. However, I don't think Biden will select her as the VP nominee.
Why? This will sound like a horrible thing to say and I wish it was not true that people think this way but the fact she is disabled will play against her. The Democrats realise that Biden's VP pick has to be seen as someone who can step up to be President if required. While I wish it wasn't so, I don't think America is ready for a disabled President - it will be subconscious in the way that the taller candidate in an election generally wins but it will be there.
Tammy Duckworth has an impressive back story and is truly a remarkable person for what she has overcome and done, and an inspiration as a human being. However, I don't think Biden will select her as the VP nominee.
Why? This will sound like a horrible thing to say and I wish it was not true that people think this way but the fact she is disabled will play against her. The Democrats realise that Biden's VP pick has to be seen as someone who can step up to be President if required. While I wish it wasn't so, I don't think America is ready for a disabled President - it will be subconscious in the way that the taller candidate in an election generally wins but it will be there.
"...I don't think America is ready for a disabled President..."
As well as the body count, the general relaxing of the lockdown is unpopular, even if individual measures aren't. A lot of people are still very scared and as humans we are shit at assessing risk, so i bet lots of parents are very unhappy that government want schools to start opening up even if risk to little johnny is absolutely minute.
I think a lot of people think if we just sit out for another month or two this will have gone away, so it seems reckless for the government to be nudging us to get out again.
Of course that's not true. If enough individuals are desperate enough to get out in the fresh air, meet their friends and visit their relatives then the police can't do much about that, but businesses are much easier to control and the Government can easily keep the hospitality and leisure sector firmly closed until almost all of it has expired through strangulation.
Mass unemployment, endless social distancing, don't visit Mum for Christmas unless you want her to die and never get within two metres of someone you don't live with ever, ever again is all we've got to look forward to from this point on. There'll be a politely spaced queue for people to throw themselves off Beachy Head this Winter.
Quite.
I see a worst of all possible worlds scenario developing, where most people realise the disease isn't fatal unless you're over 65 or fat, and mingle more or less freely, enjoying a paid holiday through furlough while crying "butcher!" if Boris dares to tell people to go back to work.
Enjoying what? It's like a deadly dull Sunday afternoon in 1977 on endless repeat, except with Netflix. And you can only watch so much fucking telly.
Had a zoom social catch up today. Apart from me and the missus, all the others are naturally pro-Labour. Surprised in their reactions to Starmer - said he was dull. The women on the call noticed he had had put on weight.
I left the BMA for several reasons, but one was spending too much time on political issues unrelated to terms and conditions of service, and being pisspoor at their main role. I am now in a proper union.
I had some run ins with the BMA and the Royal Colleges in my time.....I still have the scars.....
What union are you in now?
The HCSA.
When I worked for the Secret Police, investigating suspected medical miscreants, I was so impressed with how fierce and well briefed the HCSA reps were compared to the supine BMA ones, that I signed up myself.
When in a workplace dispute, I want a pit bull as an advocate, not a poodle! There is a time to be reasonable, and a time to tool up.
I'm a gamekeeper turned poacher at this stage in my career....
The Chair of the BMA once went for me with two barrels to my executive in a different life....I never want to go anywhere near management again, but have no regrets at all about my career.....
Tammy Duckworth has an impressive back story and is truly a remarkable person for what she has overcome and done, and an inspiration as a human being. However, I don't think Biden will select her as the VP nominee.
Why? This will sound like a horrible thing to say and I wish it was not true that people think this way but the fact she is disabled will play against her. The Democrats realise that Biden's VP pick has to be seen as someone who can step up to be President if required. While I wish it wasn't so, I don't think America is ready for a disabled President - it will be subconscious in the way that the taller candidate in an election generally wins but it will be there.
"...I don't think America is ready for a disabled President..."
As well as the body count, the general relaxing of the lockdown is unpopular, even if individual measures aren't. A lot of people are still very scared and as humans we are shit at assessing risk, so i bet lots of parents are very unhappy that government want schools to start opening up even if risk to little johnny is absolutely minute.
I think a lot of people think if we just sit out for another month or two this will have gone away, so it seems reckless for the government to be nudging us to get out again.
Of course that's not true. If enough individuals are desperate enough to get out in the fresh air, meet their friends and visit their relatives then the police can't do much about that, but businesses are much easier to control and the Government can easily keep the hospitality and leisure sector firmly closed until almost all of it has expired through strangulation.
Mass unemployment, endless social distancing, don't visit Mum for Christmas unless you want her to die and never get within two metres of someone you don't live with ever, ever again is all we've got to look forward to from this point on. There'll be a politely spaced queue for people to throw themselves off Beachy Head this Winter.
Quite.
I see a worst of all possible worlds scenario developing, where most people realise the disease isn't fatal unless you're over 65 or fat, and mingle more or less freely, enjoying a paid holiday through furlough while crying "butcher!" if Boris dares to tell people to go back to work.
Enjoying what? It's like a deadly dull Sunday afternoon in 1977 on endless repeat, except with Netflix. And you can only watch so much fucking telly.
Well now you can go out and explore the world (in England at least).
Had a zoom social catch up today. Apart from me and the missus, all the others are naturally pro-Labour. Surprised in their reactions to Starmer - said he was dull. The women on the call noticed he had had put on weight.
As well as the body count, the general relaxing of the lockdown is unpopular, even if individual measures aren't. A lot of people are still very scared and as humans we are shit at assessing risk, so i bet lots of parents are very unhappy that government want schools to start opening up even if risk to little johnny is absolutely minute.
I think a lot of people think if we just sit out for another month or two this will have gone away, so it seems reckless for the government to be nudging us to get out again.
Of course that's not true. If enough individuals are desperate enough to get out in the fresh air, meet their friends and visit their relatives then the police can't do much about that, but businesses are much easier to control and the Government can easily keep the hospitality and leisure sector firmly closed until almost all of it has expired through strangulation.
Mass unemployment, endless social distancing, don't visit Mum for Christmas unless you want her to die and never get within two metres of someone you don't live with ever, ever again is all we've got to look forward to from this point on. There'll be a politely spaced queue for people to throw themselves off Beachy Head this Winter.
Quite.
I see a worst of all possible worlds scenario developing, where most people realise the disease isn't fatal unless you're over 65 or fat, and mingle more or less freely, enjoying a paid holiday through furlough while crying "butcher!" if Boris dares to tell people to go back to work.
Enjoying what? It's like a deadly dull Sunday afternoon in 1977 on endless repeat, except with Netflix. And you can only watch so much fucking telly.
Well now you can go out and explore the world (in England at least).
Yeah. And there's nothing to do when you go exploring except go for a "nice walk." There are only so many "nice walks" (in a loop from your car or the train station to some place or another and then back again) that you can do before you get fucked off with going for "nice walks" as well.
Like I said, a deadly dull Sunday afternoon in 1977.
Tammy Duckworth has an impressive back story and is truly a remarkable person for what she has overcome and done, and an inspiration as a human being. However, I don't think Biden will select her as the VP nominee.
Why? This will sound like a horrible thing to say and I wish it was not true that people think this way but the fact she is disabled will play against her. The Democrats realise that Biden's VP pick has to be seen as someone who can step up to be President if required. While I wish it wasn't so, I don't think America is ready for a disabled President - it will be subconscious in the way that the taller candidate in an election generally wins but it will be there.
"...I don't think America is ready for a disabled President..."
FDR says hello!
FDR hid his illness.
"He avoided being seen using his wheelchair in public, but his disability was well known and became a major part of his image. In 1938, he founded the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis, leading to the development of polio vaccines."
As well as the body count, the general relaxing of the lockdown is unpopular, even if individual measures aren't. A lot of people are still very scared and as humans we are shit at assessing risk, so i bet lots of parents are very unhappy that government want schools to start opening up even if risk to little johnny is absolutely minute.
I think a lot of people think if we just sit out for another month or two this will have gone away, so it seems reckless for the government to be nudging us to get out again.
Of course that's not true. If enough individuals are desperate enough to get out in the fresh air, meet their friends and visit their relatives then the police can't do much about that, but businesses are much easier to control and the Government can easily keep the hospitality and leisure sector firmly closed until almost all of it has expired through strangulation.
Mass unemployment, endless social distancing, don't visit Mum for Christmas unless you want her to die and never get within two metres of someone you don't live with ever, ever again is all we've got to look forward to from this point on. There'll be a politely spaced queue for people to throw themselves off Beachy Head this Winter.
Quite.
I see a worst of all possible worlds scenario developing, where most people realise the disease isn't fatal unless you're over 65 or fat, and mingle more or less freely, enjoying a paid holiday through furlough while crying "butcher!" if Boris dares to tell people to go back to work.
Enjoying what? It's like a deadly dull Sunday afternoon in 1977 on endless repeat, except with Netflix. And you can only watch so much fucking telly.
Well now you can go out and explore the world (in England at least).
I listened to the WPP conference call the other day (in case anyone doesn't know, the agency group Martin Sorrell used to lead). They said that, for them, the most important revelation on the cost side (and possibly altogether) was that, in the case of a downturn in work, it made far more sense to cut the number of days worked for a large number of employees rather than make some unemployed. The rationale was that it offered a quick and large cost saving when things were tough and, if work picked up, they could quickly increase the number of days an employee worked to meet demand.
I suspect we will see more of this in the professional space i.e. people's wages will become more volatile and subject to 20-40% cuts at short notice. Great for companies, not for employees.
Tammy Duckworth has an impressive back story and is truly a remarkable person for what she has overcome and done, and an inspiration as a human being. However, I don't think Biden will select her as the VP nominee.
Why? This will sound like a horrible thing to say and I wish it was not true that people think this way but the fact she is disabled will play against her. The Democrats realise that Biden's VP pick has to be seen as someone who can step up to be President if required. While I wish it wasn't so, I don't think America is ready for a disabled President - it will be subconscious in the way that the taller candidate in an election generally wins but it will be there.
"...I don't think America is ready for a disabled President..."
FDR says hello!
FDR hid his illness.
"He avoided being seen using his wheelchair in public, but his disability was well known and became a major part of his image. In 1938, he founded the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis, leading to the development of polio vaccines."
Disability advocate Hugh Gallagher posited that Roosevelt was desperate to appear able-bodied. "FDR did not want the public to be aware that he was forced to use a wheelchair."[4]:92 When discussing Roosevelt's limited use of a wheelchair in public, Gallagher stated, "This was not by accident. It was a strategy that served to minimize the extent of his handicap: To make it unnoticed when possible and palatable when it was noticed."[4
Comments
https://twitter.com/SSheil/status/1261313528813834241
https://twitter.com/SSheil/status/1261338562248740865
One could argue that Labour suffered because of their spending pre-2008, but then I suspect the actions of the current government in the run up to COVID-19 will receive a lot of scrutiny over the next four years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smethwick_in_the_1964_general_election
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48766423
Con 49 Lab 34 LD 6 Grn 3 Ukip 1
First poll to show Labour above its 2019 GB result of 33%.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1261751866624532482?s=20
Politicians like Burnham aren’t scaring everyone.
Which reminds me... If lockdown is a devolved issue why didn't Scotland and Wales do it sooner?
My own mother in law is in a nursing home with a Covid-19 outbreak. She is 87, but enjoys life despite dementia. I wouldn't want her to suffer, but recognise she is unlikely to have a long time with us.
Losing her without being able to see her, and comfort her would be painful in a way that would far outlast any inheritance.
Seems at odds with big fall in Govt approval, fall in Johnson approval and increase in Starmer approval.
To be honest I am surprised with all the negative headlines
Seems like brexit again
remain = lockdown - leave = end lockdown
*(Here in North Wales)
But even if it's right, it's irrelevant today. It was a very different world. The system relied on a non-inflationary and hegemonic United States, which is no longer on offer. Also, exchange controls, which simply aren't thinkable today.
And it was heavily biased in favour of surplus countries, like the euro today. Keynes realised that, and tried to include measures to force creditor adjustment, but the Americans wouldn't listen.
We are staying home!
I think a lot of people think if we just sit out for another month or two this will have gone away, so it seems reckless for the government to be nudging us to get out again.
Lots of people out on the beaches and local open spaces
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1261764355634475008?s=21
Also, our government, like many others, is in effect paying people to take a staycation, so the incentive for many middle-aged people with comfortable homes is simply to freeload and dump the bill on their children's generation.
However, that does not surprise me as both Boris and Nicola are following the same advice on care homes
Indeed it has taken to today for Wales to attempt to address the problem
What union are you in now?
The one thing in the Tories favour is that Starmer is not Blair, despite all the love-ins. And a lot of the red wall won't be terribly keen on him.
In the short term good, long term potentially bad.
Although I suspect the Tory lead will shrink slowly but surely.
Mass unemployment, endless social distancing, don't visit Mum for Christmas unless you want her to die and never get within two metres of someone you don't live with ever, ever again is all we've got to look forward to from this point on. There'll be a politely spaced queue for people to throw themselves off Beachy Head this Winter.
But such a large swing in a few days is encouraging.
Within a year Keir will have the Labour Party in the 40's......
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1261767530525470722?s=20
Not one person can predict this even from week to week
When I worked for the Secret Police, investigating suspected medical miscreants, I was so impressed with how fierce and well briefed the HCSA reps were compared to the supine BMA ones, that I signed up myself.
When in a workplace dispute, I want a pit bull as an advocate, not a poodle! There is a time to be reasonable, and a time to tool up.
If Labour wants to win power again, the best strategy would be to portray itself fully as the party of socially liberally voters and:
- stop trying to chase WWC votes - accept yours and their values on the main dividing line of politics are increasingly irreconcilable and try and milk the remaining WWC support you can get. In inner-city areas, rely on your strength in the Muslim / Black vote to get you over the line;
- smother the Lib Dems and Greens and embrace their policies so they become irrelevant and seen as a wasted vote;
- concentrate your resources on suburban seats outside the main cities (so I'm thinking the likes of Chipping Barnet and Chingford). If what is said is true that there will be an exodus of professionals from the big cities to smaller towns, this may help to get you more votes
It could but it may not.
Who knows
I see a worst of all possible worlds scenario developing, where most people realise the disease isn't fatal unless you're over 65 or fat, and mingle more or less freely, enjoying a paid holiday through furlough while crying "butcher!" if Boris dares to tell people to go back to work.
Tammy Duckworth has an impressive back story and is truly a remarkable person for what she has overcome and done, and an inspiration as a human being. However, I don't think Biden will select her as the VP nominee.
Why? This will sound like a horrible thing to say and I wish it was not true that people think this way but the fact she is disabled will play against her. The Democrats realise that Biden's VP pick has to be seen as someone who can step up to be President if required. While I wish it wasn't so, I don't think America is ready for a disabled President - it will be subconscious in the way that the taller candidate in an election generally wins but it will be there.
If Tory Remainers go anywhere it will be LD more than Labour
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1261323480903147521?s=20
FDR says hello!
I'm a gamekeeper turned poacher at this stage in my career....
The Chair of the BMA once went for me with two barrels to my executive in a different life....I never want to go anywhere near management again, but have no regrets at all about my career.....
Let me think for a moment which might be more reliable...
The preferred PM has won every general election since at least 1979
Like I said, a deadly dull Sunday afternoon in 1977.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paralytic_illness_of_Franklin_D._Roosevelt
I suspect we will see more of this in the professional space i.e. people's wages will become more volatile and subject to 20-40% cuts at short notice. Great for companies, not for employees.
https://twitter.com/InnoBystander/status/1261728403868303360?s=20