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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The government’s approval ratings falls a massive net 45% sinc
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The government’s approval ratings falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown
Not much detail available yet from the Opinium poll for the Observer but what we do have is pretty devastating for the government.
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Perhaps if the economy starts to open up a bit and we don't end up suffering a series of reverses then some confidence will be restored, but right now I'm not expecting anything but more misery. Judging by these numbers I'm sure I'm not alone.
The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.
If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view
I don't concur with David Herdson's view. The punters love Boris even if I don't.
Think of his ex-employers. Max Hastings, in particular, is vitriolic.
Think of all the lovely blades he has charmed into bed and then dumped.
There was London 2012, to be fair, but that was up against a fading Ken Livingstone who had already been told to naff off once.
Boris gets the hit from the chase, seduction and triumph. Not the long-term relationship. And that's before he got the sickness.
So what do those around him do?
What does Dom do? He has A Plan. Boris was helpful, but maybe won't be soon.
What does Rishi do? He doesn't want to be the fag end PM, or LOTO for a decade.
What does Michael Gove do?
Here in Wales the C1s, C2s and Ds want to lynch Drakeford because we are still in lockdown.
DavidL said:
' Meridan goes Labour on a half per cent swing giving Labour an overall majority. Delightfully young Nigel Lawson being interviewed by Robin Day. '
Election night coverage was far better in those days despite being shown in black and white. Viewers were given every individual result and the relevant swing. For over twenty years it has become too much of a chat show and treated as entertainment. The solemn serious nature of the occasion has rather been lost.
My point is I don't think this will happen, and even if Boris screws up he has plenty of time to come back.
Second, Sunak has presumably told him every week we are locked down GDP is falling and the chances of a significant recovery are lessened as jobs will disappear.
At the same time he is dealing with a frightened people, scared into staying at home for fear of catching this terrible virus and even if it is repeated ad infinitum most people aren't at risk at the end of the day you are betting your life on that being the case and you can understand the innate caution that creates.
There's a minority however straining at the leash to get out, to get back to work either because they want the freedom to have their life the way it was or because they need the wage from work and they either can't or haven't understood how to apply for furlough money.
I fear some people have been forced back to work by employers who have told them if they don't return they will be sacked and reminding them there are plenty to take their place.
Hmm. Maybe.
Yorkshire is God's own country, the Garden of Eden was located in the Yorkshire Dales, why wouldn't you want to visit Yorkshire?
An article for the ages.
It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.
And much as with the Depression, the division of Berlin and the fading of London, these people knew something somewhere was wrong but firmly believed it would not affect them. @Eadric would doubtless refer to ‘normalcy bias.’
Sion Simon is the classic example. Having seen himself as a fixer in this new transformation he spoke of, he has been driven out of politics altogether by a series of electoral reverses and poor personal choices. He now works as a director for a small and seedy management consultant-cum-lobbyist, while his ideology is so discredited not only does nobody mention it, but members of his own party still try to blame it for last year’s train wreck.
Tomorrow did not belong to them, after all.
Not many people you could look at compared to old JL and say that, but Cummings is definitely special.
This created big difficulties for governments.
But it also stopped governments from running unsustainable policies. If domestic demand ran ahead of domestic production, you needed to stamp down on domestic demand. It was brutal. But it also meant that you couldn't have a situation where you ran a massive deficit for a decade.
There were few, if any, systematic crises in the Bretton Woods era. Countries, broadly, lived inside their means.
And Bretton Woods, of course, was a response to the hyper-inflation and competitive devaluations from the pre-war era.
I wonder, or rather perhaps I should say I suspect, that we have forgotten those lessons. We now think we can print without consequence.
Edit to add: there's a great chapter in John Brooks' Business Adventures on a Bretton Woods era sterling crisis that's well worth a read.
I begin to sense something similar coming from the Tories.
Fury in Germany as thousands join protests across country over lockdown measures and a vaccine plan by Bill Gates
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8325909/Fury-Germany-thousands-expected-protest-country-lockdown-measures.html
https://twitter.com/RyanMaherSTV/status/1261625711095246848?s=20
Hopefully Tim Cook can sort out a vaccine and the plebs will be fine.
Windows 3.1 was the last best Windows Operating System wasn't it?
Depending on my mood I might say Vista.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/
How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few.
In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things.
They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness.
Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions.
Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war.
Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.
Not a very sensitive remark.
But I also think that the government overall is weak, and is increasingly seen to be so. I can go along with Boris being able and charismatic - he is, on his good days - but it's not just about leaders. Day after day at the press conference dull middle-aged men in suits are wheeled out to toe the line, and none of them, with the possible exception of Sunak, show any charisma or natural rapport with the audience. Hancock has been sort of okay most of the time, and Gove is his normal marmite self. But Raab, Williamson, Sharma, Jenrick, Shapps, Eustice, Barclay (QT last night) - all as dull as ditchwater, interchangeable, and singularly unimpressive in answering questions. (At least Rees-Mogg is a bit interesting!) And as for women - Patel has been hopeless and kept away, and no other female minister has featured as far as I know. Are there any other women in leading positions? I'll bet the public coudn't name any of the female cabinet members other than Patel, with the possible exception of Liz Truss, who also seems to be kept away from the stage (understandably). The government feels incredibly male (regardless of the actual composition of the cabinet) and rather stale (after only 6 months in power). So, my argument is that Boris's judgement is to be questioned. He has appointed a pretty poor, very dull, cabinet - a cabinet of few of the talents, rather than all of them. I wonder why?
I don't blame the government at all. But I know a few people who do.
Once you replicate that across all the excess deaths it starts to add up.
And it is a difficult impression to shift.
None of the characters could actually be real politicians, and the storyline is too absurd to even be funny
You can stick it in your dongle...
Personally, I still think the economic fallout and how the government handles that will be a bigger factor.
Shopping was in Clitheroe, exercising up near the Tan Hill Inn. A blissful 246 mile trip in the blessed Pennines with fresh air and sunshine and the Pennines and not being inside with my wife and kids and did I mention the Pennines?
Observations:
1. The motorways were *quiet*. Positioning run south to come off the M62 near the farmhouse and it was like Easter Sunday morning
2. Tourist hotspots were *quiet*. Hebden Bridge. Hawes. Nobody there.
3. A lot of cyclists. I and other drivers were giving them plenty of room
4. A lot a lot of motorbikists.
As for the potential electoral impact from people directly affected by this, I wonder how many of the relatives live in marginal constituencies? I'd suggest perhaps not that many.
Those newly disapproving of the government split equally into hawks who think the lockdown is too much and too long, and doves who think it is (and was) too little and too late. The probability that half the population might continue to believe everything is "just right" is the same as the chances of balancing a pencil on its end for 8 weeks. The greater danger is that the government will start factoring "public opinion" into its decision-making, instead of "science".
People are simultaneously fed up of lockdown and scared to come out of it.
Local parks were rammed too - groups of 2-4 drinking outdoors.
Lockdown is over.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1261751654208229376?s=09