politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summ

BobaFett said:

Mori is another bad poll --- for both big parties.

Greens looking very squeezable. Is that where the Lab vote has gone???

Green Reds anyone? Threader???

Theres already been a book written about that

http://www.amazon.com/Watermelons-Green-Movements-True-Colors/dp/0983347409

The Full Ipsos-Mori tables are out

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3379/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-May-2014.aspx

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ipsos-Mori figures

Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

Great for the Greens - Also Others up at 7 - is that the SNP/PC or genuine 'Other Others' due to the increased campaign period?

Generally everyone else including the Nats.

Sorry if I wasn't clear - what I meant was "Others have moved from 4 to 7, so +3 . Do you have the splits to know if that is SNP/PC going from 3 to 6, or 'Other Others' going from 1 to 4"?

You must have done very well at the hustings last night if Other Others went from 1 to 4...

anotherDave said:

DavidL said:

anotherDave said:

DavidL said:

I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.

Why do you say that?

UKIP has led the EU Parliament polls all month. The one EU Parliament poll that put the Conservatives in the lead, was downplayed by ICM's bod on the Daily Politics yesterday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

(ICM bod starts 1m40s into video)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/(programmes/b0441q49

Because the UKIP bubble is at least deflating slightly. Down 4 at their level of support is quite a lot and the ratings for Nige are sliding as well.

Given that Labour voters can be counted on not to vote in the Euros (they never have really) unless there is also a local election to turn out for a relative decline in UKIP support makes it more likely that the tories (who in many cases will vote for almost anything) will pip UKIP.

I am not saying it is the most likely outcome yet. Just that 25/1 was a fabulous price and it was there for the grabbing if only their websites didn't think I was in the US.

IPSOS has UKIP down 4.

ICM has UKIP at their 2014 high. Populus has UKIP at their all time high. YouGov/Opinium/Survation all have UKIP at the upper end of their range.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

IPSOS aside, these current polls are perfect for UKIP.. Labour down, Tories not up, UKIP at the upper end of their scale (so far)

Just keep the presssure up and hopefully get the big two down to 62%ish at the GE, NOM/weak coalition/minority govt and theyll be dancing to our tune

[deleted]

Nigel's ratings are on the slide.

BobaFett said:

Mori is another bad poll --- for both big parties.

Greens looking very squeezable. Is that where the Lab vote has gone???

Green Reds anyone? Threader???

The data tables from ICM and Ashcroft suggest that most of the new voters for the Greens in these polls voted for the Lib Dems in 2010. They may recently have been saying that they would vote for Labour at the next general election, but they also told Ashcroft that they were quite likely to change their mind.

@gabyhinsliff: Nice insight into UKIP mindset in comments here http://t.co/Cf1zXqqc42: fabled Romulgarian invasion hasn't happened cos UKIP 'put them off'

How awesome has my week been, the other day John Rentoul retweeted me, and now Dan Hodges has also retweeted me

SimonStClare said:

Ipsos-Mori figures: - Lab 34 (-3) - Greens 8 (+5)

Hmm, if Carlsberg made Party election broadcasts, it would have looked like the Green’s.

I think Neil's been out campaigning for the Greens, so it is no surprising the Greens are going up in the polls.

Anyone who has ever met Neil will attest that Neil is lovely.

Charles said:

Smarmeron said:

O/T

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27381656

I am not saying the idea is without merit....but it kind of reminds me of....

"A unit costs £30,000 ($50,000) to build, and the one-bedroom homes will be let for £140 ($235) per week - around 65% of the usual market rent."

Shocking. The predator capitalist is looking for a 24% gross return (before voids and costs).

I am sure that Super Ed will be along soon to slap rent controls on him. Shouldn't gouge the poor and young.

Who could it be? Rackman Brothers? EvilHedgeFund (Jersey) Inc? TheTory Party?

Oh. It's the YMCA. Ooops.

Amusing. But does the £30,000 include the cost of the land?

That would rather change the return.

@RochdalePioneers‌

There has been a certain amount of discussion over what has caused the polls to shift suddenly.
In my humble opinion, it is possibly caused by the imminent EU election, and no matter what questions the pollsters ask, the answer is coming back as who the respondents will be voting for on a tactical basis in their given area.
(EU voting is less tribal as it is more remote from peoples usual considerations.)
I may well be mistaken, but in betting terms it is worth considering.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Right wish me luck, I'm changing trains at Newark in a few hours time.

I shall report later on tonight on whether there's a Helmergasm going on or not.

In the finest traditions of PB and the (Slightly) Right Honourable Member for Hersham we shall expect a full report from Northampton.

Labour doing no better in the all giving an intention to vote, the Tories slightly better, this flies against the historic trend and mirrors last month. labour are struggling to gain any new voters and their core is slipping away. Given their problems with GOTV, it's brown pants time at Millbank.
Dyedwoolie monitor following.......

@Charles Can I buy one and rent it out ?

That is a staggering return !

As @Next points out purchasing the land might be the ROI reducer so to speak.

@Gin1138 Lefties on the slide with the Labour and Greens netting off to +2 ?

Next said:

Charles said:

Smarmeron said:

O/T

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27381656

I am not saying the idea is without merit....but it kind of reminds me of....

"A unit costs £30,000 ($50,000) to build, and the one-bedroom homes will be let for £140 ($235) per week - around 65% of the usual market rent."

Shocking. The predator capitalist is looking for a 24% gross return (before voids and costs).

I am sure that Super Ed will be along soon to slap rent controls on him. Shouldn't gouge the poor and young.

Who could it be? Rackman Brothers? EvilHedgeFund (Jersey) Inc? TheTory Party?

Oh. It's the YMCA. Ooops.

Amusing. But does the £30,000 include the cost of the land?

That would rather change the return.

Nah - they said they were going to rent the land, but it's not prime space they are going to be using.

I was only riffing anyway ;-)

ToryJim said:

There is some chronic tinfoil-hattery going on in the comments there.

Wait till they see this one...

@holysmoke: Ukip and its racist supporters: this is what happens when small parties grow too fast via @Telegraph http://t.co/XCVb25k4Xp

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

Ipsos-Mori figures: - Lab 34 (-3) - Greens 8 (+5)

Hmm, if Carlsberg made Party election broadcasts, it would have looked like the Green’s.

I think Neil's been out campaigning for the Greens, so it is no surprising the Greens are going up in the polls.

Anyone who has ever met Neil will attest that Neil is lovely.

He bought me a beer at DD's, so I have to agree

OblitusSumMe said:

BobaFett said:

Mori is another bad poll --- for both big parties.

Greens looking very squeezable. Is that where the Lab vote has gone???

Green Reds anyone? Threader???

The data tables from ICM and Ashcroft suggest that most of the new voters for the Greens in these polls voted for the Lib Dems in 2010. They may recently have been saying that they would vote for Labour at the next general election, but they also told Ashcroft that they were quite likely to change their mind.

Unsurprisingly the MORI data tables show the same pattern.

Some massive weighting adjustments necessary to the MORI sample. Public sector workers numbered 243 in the original sample, but were weighted down to 119. Private sector workers consequently had to be weighted up from 329 in the original sample to 422.

BobaFett said:

@GIN1138‌

Lefties on the slide. Such as the Greens?

@Smarmeron‌
There are going to be some very red faces on here if you are right. So red we won't see them for dust

The only party on the up in a significant way is UKIP

Membership, VI polls, actual election results etc

MPs.. not yet, but that will be up as well within a year.

Mike.

There's a new discussion up on Vanilla "The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know".

But it isn't on the main PB site.

Weird.

Next said:

Mike.

There's a new discussion up on Vanilla "The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know".

But it isn't on the main PB site.

Weird.

It was but then it disappeared

I just assumed TSE was cheating again...

saddened said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel's ratings are on the slide.

Who is in the lead?

Nigel, but he's only 2 points ahead of Dave Cameron, you know the unpopular Prime Minister of the Lib/Lab/Con parties who wants to keep us in the EU and bring in even more Jonny Foreigners.

Only a one word answer was required and you were correct, well done!

By 2%. That's pretty funny the master politician two points up on the EUSSR puppet.

I have neither bigged up Farage nor slagged off Cameron but facts are facts, and the most popular leader on this measure is Farage

Charles said:

Nah - they said they were going to rent the land, but it's not prime space they are going to be using.

I was only riffing anyway ;-)

I'm starting to think that Boris Island would be a very good idea as it would provide London with a new area of London to expand into and build on.

Granted some people are fighting to keep Heathrow but just think of the prime real estate with readily available links and pre-existing shopping centres (T5, T3).

The bottom line is that Ed is having a really bad time of it and not getting many buyers.

One of these really annoying courses I went on had this ridiculous adage, Proper Preparation leads to Perfect Performance. Sort of thing I hate really but Ed is reaping the crop of a harvest planted over the last 3 years.

Labour should have spent that time working out what their priorities are, where cuts can be made in spending with the minimum amount of harm, what is now a luxury we cannot afford, what taxes can be increased without damaging the economy excessively and, most importantly of all, how they can help the economy of this country sell to the world enough to pay for what we want to buy.

There is no reason at all that such an approach would not have produced meaningfully different choices from those made by the Coalition. Clear, realistic choices could have been offered within a credible envelope and policy structure.

Instead we had the worst form of tokenism apparently supporting a reduction in public spending but opposing every cut, populist nonsense that was anti-business and full on wonkism such at that producer/predator nonsense.

The people of this country are not being offered a choice and it is Labour's fault. No wonder people who should be supporting Labour (like our own Southam Observer) just don't know anymore.

BobaFett said:

@RochdalePioneers‌

There is still a chance that this period could be a blessing in disguise. The Tories now think they have it in the bag. Labour know they have much work to do. Dire polling but all to play for.

Dire polling for both of the big parties, Mr. Fett. There is nothing in these recent figures that should make the Conservatives happy. Nice to see one's opponents going down but if one isn't improving at the same time, well not too good.

Let us see what the polls say one the effect of the Euros have worn off. My guess is that during the summer the polls will bounce around a bit but basically stay as they are. Then we are into conference season and beyond that the run up to the GE when the polls might start to be a meaningful predictor.

ToryJim said:

Hmm could a third place in the Euros kill Ed?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100271544/if-labour-finishes-third-in-next-weeks-elections-ed-miliband-is-finished/

No.

BobaFett said:

@RochdalePioneers‌

Do you detect a teensy weensy bit of complacent creeping in? Just a soupçon you understand. Richard N has just declared it lost for Ed.

Yet Labour have a three point lead with Mori and the Greens are on 8%.

Hmm.

Get out of here mate. Nobody, but nobody, does complacency like UKIP.

No MPs and no prospect of any yet Farage is grandly explaining de haut en bas how and why he'd entertain a coalition with Dave.

The whiff of complacency from UKIP, strong as it is, is simply masked by the smell of wee.

The bottom line is that Ed is having a really bad time of it and not getting many buyers.

The resurgence in the economy is pushing the fulcrum of the debate towards areas where labour doens't really have much to say - immigration, welfare, the EU etc.

The big political arguments on here in recent weeks have been between kippers and tories.

Labour just looks a bit irrelevant.

"One of these really annoying courses I went on had this ridiculous adage, Proper Preparation leads to Perfect Performance"

Good grief, these management training companies really are dire. Back many, many years ago on the Junior NCOs course we were taught the proper motto:

"Proper preparation and planning prevents piss poor performance"

Still I suppose if some company can con suckers into paying fees for a course that promises perfection at all let alone without the need for planning, good luck to 'em.

SimonStClare said:

ToryJim said:

Hmm could a third place in the Euros kill Ed?

No. - it would be a set back, but no where near 'lethal' - Ed is here til the GE.

I tend to agree, but I think it would cause a massive headache.

HurstLlama said:

"One of these really annoying courses I went on had this ridiculous adage, Proper Preparation leads to Perfect Performance"

Good grief, these management training companies really are dire. Back many, many years ago on the Junior NCOs course we were taught the proper motto:

"Proper preparation and planning prevents piss poor performance"

Still I suppose if some company can con suckers into paying fees for a course that promises perfection at all let alone without the need for planning, good luck to 'em.

One of my friends went to a mediation last year at which the mediator (a full on advocate of this sort of nonsense) described the dispute between the parties as a pencil. He put a pencil on the floor and asked which party was willing to be the first to pick it up. Both parties left.

The margins for Lib Dems to get 0 - 4 seats seem really fine...

Some new markets for the Euros up at Ladbrokes shortly.

GB Vote share
UKIP 29%
Lab 27%
Cons 24%
LD 9%
Green 7%
An Independence From Europe 1.5%

5/6 Over or Under available on each.

Charles said:

eek said:

Charles said:

Nah - they said they were going to rent the land, but it's not prime space they are going to be using.

I was only riffing anyway ;-)

I'm starting to think that Boris Island would be a very good idea as it would provide London with a new area of London to expand into and build on.

Granted some people are fighting to keep Heathrow but just think of the prime real estate with readily available links and pre-existing shopping centres (T5, T3).

Yeah, but it would be a nightmare for me to get to the airport in the morning.

Oh, dear. How sad. Never mind. (smiley face thing)

Cheer up, Mr. Charles. You could always move - who knows, get in early and you could be the Mr. Bond of the 21st century as after 600 years or so the centre of gravity of our great capital switches from West to (South) East. Failing that you'll just have to rely on Boris getting the new train lines built (two or three changes ought to get you there) or just give your driver more time.

BobaFett said:

@RochdalePioneers‌

There is still a chance that this period could be a blessing in disguise. The Tories now think they have it in the bag. Labour know they have much work to do. Dire polling but all to play for.

I think that's gross simplification. All to play for for both sides is the only real position.

isam said:

DavidL said:

The bottom line is that Ed is having a really bad time of it and not getting many buyers.

One of these really annoying courses I went on had this ridiculous adage, Proper Preparation leads to Perfect Performance. Sort of thing I hate really but Ed is reaping the crop of a harvest planted over the last 3 years.

Labour should have spent that time working out what their priorities are, where cuts can be made in spending with the minimum amount of harm, what is now a luxury we cannot afford, what taxes can be increased without damaging the economy excessively and, most importantly of all, how they can help the economy of this country sell to the world enough to pay for what we want to buy.

There is no reason at all that such an approach would not have produced meaningfully different choices from those made by the Coalition. Clear, realistic choices could have been offered within a credible envelope and policy structure.

Instead we had the worst form of tokenism apparently supporting a reduction in public spending but opposing every cut, populist nonsense that was anti-business and full on wonkism such at that producer/predator nonsense.

The people of this country are not being offered a choice and it is Labour's fault. No wonder people who should be supporting Labour (like our own Southam Observer) just don't know anymore.

Should have stuck with Blue Labour in my opinion

Agreed. The real challenges of the next few years is going to be creating and maintaining employment in this country without exploiting the weak. So issues like zero hour contracts, casualisation, training, investment, the minimum wage, housing and inequality should be the central objectives but within a workable framework. Not easy. Hard work in fact. Work that has not been done.

New Thread

Millsy said:

Looking at Ipsos Mori satisfaction ratings, it's impressive that Cameron has the highest satisfaction rating 9 years into his leadership of the Tories and 4 years into being PM. Or does it just reflect badly on the shower he's up against?

God knows, I can't stand the man and the more I see/hear of him the more he gets on my wick, but that is quite an impressive achievement. Aided no doubt by the muppets he is up against (and those that surround him), but impressive none the less.

Charles said:

HurstLlama said:

Charles said:

eek said:

Charles said:

Nah - they said they were going to rent the land, but it's not prime space they are going to be using.

I was only riffing anyway ;-)

I'm starting to think that Boris Island would be a very good idea as it would provide London with a new area of London to expand into and build on.

Granted some people are fighting to keep Heathrow but just think of the prime real estate with readily available links and pre-existing shopping centres (T5, T3).

Yeah, but it would be a nightmare for me to get to the airport in the morning.

Oh, dear. How sad. Never mind. (smiley face thing)

Cheer up, Mr. Charles. You could always move - who knows, get in early and you could be the Mr. Bond of the 21st century as after 600 years or so the centre of gravity of our great capital switches from West to (South) East. Failing that you'll just have to rely on Boris getting the new train lines built (two or three changes ought to get you there) or just give your driver more time.

What this Mr Bond?

In 1992, Bond was declared bankrupt with personal debts totalling A$1.8 billion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Bond_(businessman)

Mr. Charles, really! I thought you knew your London! I am sure you are just teasing me, but just in case you aren't. Mr. Bond was the chap who built Bond Street and the surrounding area on the North side of Picadilly. Made a fortune and built a big house in Peckham, of all places. Though, now I come to think of it, I think he also ended up going bust.

Its been a while and I'd have to look through my papers, but said Bond also had a link with Crosby Hall, built in the 1370s and which used to stand in Bishopsgate but, thanks to the generosity of the City bankers of the early 20th century, was taken down stone by stone and eventually re-erected in Chelsea on the grounds of what was the garden of Thomas Moore's house (Moore by co-incidence was once a tenant of the Hall). The Hall is now part of the residence of another City character, but one whose career I won't discuss in public.

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

@antifrank - Many thanks for your excellent series of articles. Silence doesn't mean that they haven't been read attentively (and some bets placed accordingly).

I'm glad they're appreciated! They're mainly written for my own benefit, to help me work out my thinking and to record it for future reference (so I can see where I went wrong).

They are very much appreciated.

On a related note, given present polling and the general trends, is backing the Tories in Broxtowe at 7/2 value?

Probably not TSE - there's better value to be had imho.

Ed Miliband has had four years and hasn’t managed to shift his personal ratings and public perception of him one iota. His numbers are catastrophic – worse than IDS [Iain Duncan Smith] or Gordon Brown. No-one has ever gone on to win an election with ratings as bad as this.’

Is this true?