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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summ

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Youth unemployment in this country still seems way, way too high. It is still hovering around the 20% mark and if someone gets to 24 without ever having had a proper job (or having been in higher education) their life chances are going to be pretty miserable. A life on benefits awaits them.

    Whilst I don't disagree with your point, that youth unemployment figure is very misleading, as it includes lots of students. 707,000 18-24 year olds were counted in the statistics as unemployed, but only 284,700 of those were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (March 2014 figures):

    http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05871.pdf

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Looks like it is going to be painful watching World Cup games that are shown on ITV this summer....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2627602/Why-mans-World-Cup-ITV-Channel-defends-unveiling-16-strong-male-line-presenters-pundits.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Underlining the UK industrial renaissance. I wonder how many people noticed this? -

    The UK now makes more cars than France.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2535625/British-carmakers-overtake-French-time-40-years-output-hits-record-high.html

    Yes but their car-makers are French and ours are German, Japanese and Indian.

    And what has changed since the 1980s when our car plants were closing? Unions, perhaps; management, certainly.
    Why does it matter if their car makers are French and ours aren't British? Do Tata, Nissan or GM not employ people? The UK car industry has been highly successful under foreign management with the threat of mass closures if unions get uppity. It's a good balance and everyone benefits. French car companies are in a complete state, there are no profits to be had. I would rather have a foreign owned industry which employs people and is growing than a domestically owned one which is contracting filled with militant unions and idiotic management. Obviously the best scenario would be that of Japan or Germany, but that doesn't seem possible unless Tata were to float JLR in London.
    Profits flowing overseas means our export are paradoxically also invisible imports. IP held overseas. Even ease of closure, which you count as a benefit. But the wider issue is surely why can't British firms make cars (or anything else) here when foreign companies can?
    As long as HMRC get tough on transfer pricing as Osborne declared in the budget then profits will be taxed accordingly.

    The reason is very simple, British companies are horrendously short sighted and the management is poor. The reason there are very few truly global British success stories in manufacturing is because of poor management. RR, BAe, JCB and a few others are the homegrown success stories, but for every one of those Germany has 10 others because long term vision from management to grow and invest rather than take money out of the business for shareholders.
  • Stephen Sutton has died.

    shocked.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Stephen Sutton has died.

    Desperately sad news.



  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Sad News : Cancer sufferer Stephen Sutton who raised more than £3 million for the teenage Cancer trust has died
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    edited May 2014

    As we were talking about Britain First last night

    Far right activists have targeted mosques in Bradford attempting to hand out Bibles and distribute leaflets accusing community elders of failing to stop grooming gangs.

    It is believed members of Britain First, some wearing uniforms, staged the protests at 10 places of worship in the city centre. The group posted images of themselves on Facebook confronting members of the Asian community.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/farright-activists-hand-out-bibles-outside-mosques-in-bradford-9352271.html

    They did it in Glasgow too. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain local sect wasn't over represented in their ranks.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779

    Stephen Sutton has died.

    :(

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    I come on here to find the Tories have won the general election!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    That is very sad news.

    Stephen Sutton has died.

  • More Business bashing from EdM on PMQs. Just imagine him as PM. I shudder.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    I am beginning to believe that Jack W's oft repeated view of Mr Miliband's job prospects may well be right. This is just not good enough.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    BobaFett said:

    I come on here to find the Tories have won the general election!

    No, I think it's more that Ed has lost it.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    marke09 said:

    Sad News : Cancer sufferer Stephen Sutton who raised more than £3 million for the teenage Cancer trust has died

    Very sad news.RIP lad.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014

    Fiddling while Rome burns?

    Well quite - I’m reminded of Piers Morgan’s puff piece interview and all the favours called by LHQ in an attempted to portray Gordon Brown as vaguely human. – If Labour MPs have to explain every time they are interviewed, what Ed’s ‘true’ character is really like at this stage of the game, there’s a pretty good chance they are onto a loser and people’s minds are already made up. - what did the Mail find in its poll how Ed is most regarded: 'thick, wet and sexless'

    It's quite unfair in my opinion, but there you go.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    I come on here to find the Tories have won the general election!

    Projecting again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    BobaFett said:

    I come on here to find the Tories have won the general election!

    If you go back a few weeks you'll find some Labour posters talking about their being no cross over and Ed will be PM next year.
  • antifrank said:

    @antifrank - Many thanks for your excellent series of articles. Silence doesn't mean that they haven't been read attentively (and some bets placed accordingly).

    I'm glad they're appreciated! They're mainly written for my own benefit, to help me work out my thinking and to record it for future reference (so I can see where I went wrong).
    They are very much appreciated.
    On a related note, given present polling and the general trends, is backing the Tories in Broxtowe at 7/2 value?
    If there was a Thatcherite as the Conservative then yes. Alas we have a Clarkite. NickMP still looks nailed on.

    Has she built an impressive campaign team Nick?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Woeful from Ed, walked straight into a right hook. He clearly think Pfizer is a vote winner for him
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @benedictbrogan: This 'Stop the markets, we want to get off' line from @Ed_Miliband curious. Do voters believe he can protect them? Polls suggest not #PMQs
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    As we were talking about Britain First last night

    Far right activists have targeted mosques in Bradford attempting to hand out Bibles and distribute leaflets accusing community elders of failing to stop grooming gangs.

    It is believed members of Britain First, some wearing uniforms, staged the protests at 10 places of worship in the city centre. The group posted images of themselves on Facebook confronting members of the Asian community.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/farright-activists-hand-out-bibles-outside-mosques-in-bradford-9352271.html

    They did it in Glasgow too. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain local sect wasn't over represented in their ranks.

    The ones who are planning to hold a rally in Scotland just prior to the referendum?
  • Re: PMQs
    I do think Cameron has adopted the wrong approach here by getting angry with EdM. A more calm and assured performance returning each jibe back at him with the barb of Ed's ratings could have won this match.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited May 2014

    Antifrank - I second RN's comments and it's clear your blog already has quite a considerable fan base. Your pieces are much appreciated even if we don't appear to comment thereon to the extent they merit.

    I'd add my thanks to the throng. The only reason that I don't comment on them is because they are so clear and well written that you appear to have said everything already!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:

    I am beginning to believe that Jack W's oft repeated view of Mr Miliband's job prospects may well be right. This is just not good enough.

    I'm sorry that my early forecast was "just not good enough" but I'm minded to declare that almost four years notice that "Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister" wasn't too shabby !!

    Titters ....

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    marke09 said:

    Sad News : Cancer sufferer Stephen Sutton who raised more than £3 million for the teenage Cancer trust has died

    Very sad news.RIP lad.
    The good ones die young, and the young man was a gooden. RIP.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Re: PMQs
    I do think Cameron has adopted the wrong approach here by getting angry with EdM. A more calm and assured performance returning each jibe back at him with the barb of Ed's ratings could have won this match.

    Looking at PMQs as a whole, I'd agree.

    I suspect both leaders have their eye on the evening news, and which 10 second excerpt will be shown, to permit a calm and measured approach.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    marke09 said:

    Sad News : Cancer sufferer Stephen Sutton who raised more than £3 million for the teenage Cancer trust has died

    Very sad news.RIP lad.
    The good ones die young, and the young man was a gooden. RIP.
    He was simon.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    OMG - Dave just used a Take That reference into his reply about Gary Barlow's tax affairs.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382

    antifrank said:

    @antifrank - Many thanks for your excellent series of articles. Silence doesn't mean that they haven't been read attentively (and some bets placed accordingly).

    I'm glad they're appreciated! They're mainly written for my own benefit, to help me work out my thinking and to record it for future reference (so I can see where I went wrong).
    They are very much appreciated.
    On a related note, given present polling and the general trends, is backing the Tories in Broxtowe at 7/2 value?
    If there was a Thatcherite as the Conservative then yes. Alas we have a Clarkite. NickMP still looks nailed on.

    Has she built an impressive campaign team Nick?
    Not sure about nailed on he has a decent chance but 7/2 looks great odds in that constituency for Anna.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Leave Gary Barlow alone!

    Whatever he said, whatever he did, he didn't mean it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 42s

    Cameron on Gary Barlow tax avoidance: "To coin a phrase, we want your money back for good" #pmqs
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Nice timing with The Crossover. Just in the run up to the IndyRef. Somebody up there wants Scotland to win.

    Scotland can't both vote Yes and win.

    Ye cannae change the laws of physics, Jim.

    A NO result would, by definition, be a historic defeat for Scotland. And David Cameron's greatest victory.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Labour ... NHS ... Wales.

    Lethal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Honestly, what is this obsession in putting in subtle pop music references into political replies and articles?

    *Innocent Face*
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    felix said:

    Nice timing with The Crossover. Just in the run up to the IndyRef. Somebody up there wants Scotland to win.


    Yesterday's poll on Sind showed little significant change.
    The Crossover look place after the TNS fieldwork had closed.

    Anyhoo, it'll take a few weeks for The Crossover to drip into the national consciousness. It is best if YES does not get a polling lead until late in the day. In fact, the later the better.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Scott_P said:

    As the UK economy continues to improve, this seems likely to increase the chances of a "No" vote in Scotland, just as the reverse would probably have been the case.

    I can just see Nicola on the stump now. "We want to leave the fastest growing economy in Europe, but stay tied to Bulgaria. The highest levels of employment since records began are not for the likes of us. Stay in Scotland. Die young."

    Who doesn't want to vote for that?
    Most Scots still in Scotland, surely.

    By analogy, the fact that dogs are in favour of lamp-posts does not mean dogs want jobs in a lamp-post factory.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Honestly, what is this obsession in putting in subtle pop music references into political replies and articles?

    *Innocent Face*

    It was a good choice to change the mood on a "sleaze-type" issue.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014
    @DecrepitJohnL‌

    "Why can't British companies make cars (or anything else) here when foreign companies can? "

    Where is AlanBrooke when you need him? UK companies do make lots of serious stuff, at high end engineering the UK is pretty damn good with some world leaders in the pack. Why isn't there more of it and why did we end up with no indigenous car makers?

    Well, I think you have to go back in history for that answer. Short-term, make a quick quid, attitude by our finance people (a problem that dates back to the 18th century). Piss poor management skills (a problem that dates back to the late 19th century education reforms). An attitude to industrial relations by the Unions that never evolved from the 19th century (Atlee offered the trade unions seats on the boards of his nationalised industries and the unions turned him down - wasn't their job to manage they were there to fight management). A distrust of the professional, i.e. someone trained and who knew what they were talking about, when it came to production and processes. An education system not-geared to a modern industrial society (see above for education reforms in the 1870s and every attempt at reform since then).

    What Honda, and their like, could do, because they were coming from outside, was cut through all that historical baggage and get at the native genius of the British worker. I remember reading a few years ago the most productive plant, and the one with the best worker contributions to improving productivity, that Toyota has was in the UK.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Looks like it is going to be painful watching World Cup games that are shown on ITV this summer....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2627602/Why-mans-World-Cup-ITV-Channel-defends-unveiling-16-strong-male-line-presenters-pundits.html

    ITV always packs too many people (of either sex) on its panels imo.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146

    As we were talking about Britain First last night

    Far right activists have targeted mosques in Bradford attempting to hand out Bibles and distribute leaflets accusing community elders of failing to stop grooming gangs.

    It is believed members of Britain First, some wearing uniforms, staged the protests at 10 places of worship in the city centre. The group posted images of themselves on Facebook confronting members of the Asian community.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/farright-activists-hand-out-bibles-outside-mosques-in-bradford-9352271.html

    They did it in Glasgow too. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain local sect wasn't over represented in their ranks.

    The ones who are planning to hold a rally in Scotland just prior to the referendum?
    Yep. We can only hope that Edinburgh Council sees sense and allows them to display their optimistic and joyful message to the voters.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Really sorry to see the news that Stephen Sutton has passed. I just hope his family get to grieve in private.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    As we were talking about Britain First last night

    Far right activists have targeted mosques in Bradford attempting to hand out Bibles and distribute leaflets accusing community elders of failing to stop grooming gangs.

    It is believed members of Britain First, some wearing uniforms, staged the protests at 10 places of worship in the city centre. The group posted images of themselves on Facebook confronting members of the Asian community.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/farright-activists-hand-out-bibles-outside-mosques-in-bradford-9352271.html

    They did it in Glasgow too. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain local sect wasn't over represented in their ranks.

    The ones who are planning to hold a rally in Scotland just prior to the referendum?
    Yep. We can only hope that Edinburgh Council sees sense and allows them to display their optimistic and joyful message to the voters.
    Yes are very fortunate in that some of their opponents are so rubbish and voter repellents.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    RIP Stephen. You took something terrible and turned it into something fantastic. Far too short a life but one very well lived.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Some deliciously Neanderthal comments on the Mail/ITV/Kickball story.
    Someone actually went for the 'have a woman along to make the tea' classic. Bravo!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    IPSOS MORI OUT

    abour is down three points since April to 34 per cent. This equals its lowest share since June 2010 when the defeated party was leaderless after the resignation of Gordon Brown.

    However, Mr Miliband’s party is still three points ahead of the Conservatives, on 31 per cent. It will fuel anxiety in Tory ranks that Mr Cameron is shedding support to Ukip.

    Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are frozen on nine per cent. Nigel Farage’s post-debates bounce fizzled out, with his party dropping four points to 11.

    Today’s big winners are the Greens, whose support has shot up from three to eight points on the back of higher exposure in the campaign period. Green leader Natalie Bennett claimed voters were disenchanted with the big parties and that the polls “chime with what I am hearing around the country”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labours-poll-ratings-take-a-dive-as-confidence-in-uk-economy-higher-than-ever-9368495.html?origin=internalSearch
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    No more PMQ's until 18th June .... Ed will be relieved !!
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Underlining the UK industrial renaissance. I wonder how many people noticed this? -

    The UK now makes more cars than France.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2535625/British-carmakers-overtake-French-time-40-years-output-hits-record-high.html

    Yes but their car-makers are French and ours are German, Japanese and Indian.

    And what has changed since the 1980s when our car plants were closing? Unions, perhaps; management, certainly.
    Why does it matter if their car makers are French and ours aren't British? Do Tata, Nissan or GM not employ people? The UK car industry has been highly successful under foreign management with the threat of mass closures if unions get uppity. It's a good balance and everyone benefits. French car companies are in a complete state, there are no profits to be had. I would rather have a foreign owned industry which employs people and is growing than a domestically owned one which is contracting filled with militant unions and idiotic management. Obviously the best scenario would be that of Japan or Germany, but that doesn't seem possible unless Tata were to float JLR in London.
    Quite - there's an embedded false dichotomy in the argument that "our" manufacturers are all foreign in that it implies they could all somehow be British. We had our chance to try that and it flopped.

    Although it's a shame that Triumph, the British BMW, was never somehow spun out of BLMC and saved. Why they put the MG back into production instead of the Stag I will never know. OK, I do know (the tools don't exist) but the 2 + 2 droptop was genius, poorly executed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    From a not unsympathetic FT article linked to down thread:

    "Mr Balls admitted that voters needed reassuring that Labour would “make the sums add up” and that the party understood the need for wealth creation and supported entrepreneurs.

    Lord Jones, a business minister in the last Labour government, said on Tuesday that he believed Mr Miliband was “one of the least business friendly leaders of political parties I’ve seen for years”.

    But Mr Balls, seen as a supporter of business and the City in the Labour leadership team, said: “I don’t think Labour will win the next election as an anti-business party.”

    How does that explain that performance at PMQs? How many more times will it take for the penny to drop that whatever the short term populism this constant attack on business is going to be fatal to the Labour party? Balls gets it. His boss really needs to rethink.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    fitalass said:

    That is very sad news.

    Stephen Sutton has died.

    Very. What a lovely chap. I am so glad we thought to send him some money.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    Neil is going to be full to the brim with girlish glee
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Off Topic Molybdenum has picked up from $20000/Tonne at Year Start to $30000/Tonne now.

    Non ferrous general basket $1750 -> $2100...

    Forward indicator of incoming imported inflation perhaps ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    IPSOS MORI OUT

    abour is down three points since April to 34 per cent. This equals its lowest share since June 2010 when the defeated party was leaderless after the resignation of Gordon Brown.

    However, Mr Miliband’s party is still three points ahead of the Conservatives, on 31 per cent. It will fuel anxiety in Tory ranks that Mr Cameron is shedding support to Ukip.

    Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are frozen on nine per cent. Nigel Farage’s post-debates bounce fizzled out, with his party dropping four points to 11.

    Today’s big winners are the Greens, whose support has shot up from three to eight points on the back of higher exposure in the campaign period. Green leader Natalie Bennett claimed voters were disenchanted with the big parties and that the polls “chime with what I am hearing around the country”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labours-poll-ratings-take-a-dive-as-confidence-in-uk-economy-higher-than-ever-9368495.html?origin=internalSearch

    Moronic reporting. Fuel fears that Cons are leaking to a party that is down 4 points!
    Greens on 8?!
    What are the all naming a party figures? labour usually do better in those, although last month, spookily enough, they didn't.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    IPSOS MORI OUT

    abour is down three points since April to 34 per cent. This equals its lowest share since June 2010 when the defeated party was leaderless after the resignation of Gordon Brown.

    However, Mr Miliband’s party is still three points ahead of the Conservatives, on 31 per cent. It will fuel anxiety in Tory ranks that Mr Cameron is shedding support to Ukip.

    Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are frozen on nine per cent. Nigel Farage’s post-debates bounce fizzled out, with his party dropping four points to 11.

    Today’s big winners are the Greens, whose support has shot up from three to eight points on the back of higher exposure in the campaign period. Green leader Natalie Bennett claimed voters were disenchanted with the big parties and that the polls “chime with what I am hearing around the country”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labours-poll-ratings-take-a-dive-as-confidence-in-uk-economy-higher-than-ever-9368495.html?origin=internalSearch

    That looks like a classic Euro period poll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Can we spot the the trend?

    Ed Miliband suffered a new blow as the poll revealed Labour crashing to one of its worst shares since the party’s 2010 general election disaster.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    IndyRef betting news.

    Fantastic timing: the "Crossover" has stimulated the first move in the IndyRef market in weeks. The new best prices are:

    Yes 5/2 (PP, Lad)
    No 2/5 SJ (from 4/11)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @DecriptJohnL

    You asked why so few British Companies are doing high end production, well here might be your answer:

    "As an observation, it sucks to hire young people and train them up. Why? Because training people is expensive, and the moment they have marketable skills, they move on to someone paying full rate"

    Management don't want to invest in their people because said people might leave once they are trained. I have been listening to that shit for thirty years and to find someone like RCS100 still spouting it in 2014 makes me furious.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    So on average the Tories are ahead with the phone pollsters, with a year to go.

    That is splendiferous
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited May 2014
    ToryJim said:

    IPSOS MORI OUT

    abour is down three points since April to 34 per cent. This equals its lowest share since June 2010 when the defeated party was leaderless after the resignation of Gordon Brown.

    However, Mr Miliband’s party is still three points ahead of the Conservatives, on 31 per cent. It will fuel anxiety in Tory ranks that Mr Cameron is shedding support to Ukip.

    Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are frozen on nine per cent. Nigel Farage’s post-debates bounce fizzled out, with his party dropping four points to 11.

    Today’s big winners are the Greens, whose support has shot up from three to eight points on the back of higher exposure in the campaign period. Green leader Natalie Bennett claimed voters were disenchanted with the big parties and that the polls “chime with what I am hearing around the country”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labours-poll-ratings-take-a-dive-as-confidence-in-uk-economy-higher-than-ever-9368495.html?origin=internalSearch

    That looks like a classic Euro period poll.
    @ThescreamingEagles Great poll for the Greens, poor for UKIP, bad for Labour, not good enough for the Conservatives.

    Wonder if Greens are ahead of Lib Dems in raw unweighted ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Mr Clegg and Mr Farage have both suffered a fall in their approval ratings over the month. The Lib-Dem leader fared worst, with two-thirds saying they are dissatisfied with his performance. Only 23 per cent are satisfied with him — one of his worst ratings.

    Mr Farage’s numbers, which were uniquely positive last month, have declined markedly and are close to Mr Cameron’s. The Prime Minister and Mr Miliband both boast slightly better satisfaction ratings than a month ago.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    Great for the Greens - Also Others up at 7 - is that the SNP/PC or genuine 'Other Others' due to the increased campaign period?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Lennon said:

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    Great for the Greens - Also Others up at 7 - is that the SNP/PC or genuine 'Other Others' due to the increased campaign period?
    Generally everyone else including the Nats.

    PS - Good luck with your campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    I wonder which numpty advised EdM not to meet AstraZeneca? I shudder to think it might have been his own bright idea. It led to him being eviscerated in PMQ's.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    I wonder which numpty advised EdM not to meet AstraZeneca? I shudder to think it might have been his own bright idea. It led to him being eviscerated in PMQ's.

    It was his own intellectual self confidence and competence that helped him make that decision.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    Labour are going to have to think about bringing Gordon back.

    The 29% in 2010 will soon be looking more like a ceiling than a floor.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    IndyRef betting news.

    Fantastic timing: the "Crossover" has stimulated the first move in the IndyRef market in weeks. The new best prices are:

    Yes 5/2 (PP, Lad)
    No 2/5 SJ (from 4/11)

    Seeing as there is a 100% book and Stan James odds compilers tend to be on the generous side if I had to pick I'd probably take the 2/5 No...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Weird commentary on that poll. The tories are worried about shedding support to UKIP in a poll where they remain the same and UKIP are down 4? They might more usefully worry about where the votes have gone now. Also if Labour are down 3 and UKIP 4 where did all the votes go? Even the slightly bizarre increase in the greens doesn't cover that.

    Still, there is something quaint about having a poll with a Labour lead. It's like old times.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Lennon said:

    Maybe I'm being overly influenced by my hustings experience last night - but I wonder if (in the London locals particularly) the TUSC might do surprisingly well (in votes if not seats). If Labour are genuinely shedding voters due to a lack of policies - what does a left leaning pro immigration voter do? Assuming that UKIP, Tory and LD are definite no goes, and you're disenchanted by Labour, your options are basically Green or TUSC. I expect Green to take the majority of this, but a fair amount of 'Old' Labour and Union type voters will be attracted to them. Not sure what the consequence of this could be but something to consider...

    TUSC did very poorly in the 2010 general election - less than 12,000 votes. This compares with Respect taking 68,000 votes in 2005 and the Socialist Alliance 55,000 votes in 2001.

    Since 2010 some of the organisations who were behind TUSC have left to create another new left-of_labour grouping, the non-satirically named Left Unity Party.

    I don't think TUSC will surprise anyone. However, if the left-of-Labour does decide to get its act together there is definitely a space waiting to be filled.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Betting News.

    Shadsy has priced up a large number of ultra-safe seats, mostly CON-held, where the top party is priced at 1/100, eg:

    Worthing East and Shoreham
    Witham
    Tonbridge and Malling
    Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
    Rutland and Melton
    Rushcliffe
    Rayleigh and Wickford
    Nottingham North
    Nottingham East
    Maldon
    etc etc etc
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nedsimons: Ipsos MORI poll says more people are optimistic that the economy will improve than at any point since 1978.

    Ask not for whom the bell tolls, Ed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    DavidL said:

    I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.

    Did you get on the UKIP - Con - Lab forecast at 10s or 12s though :) ?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    I wonder which numpty advised EdM not to meet AstraZeneca? I shudder to think it might have been his own bright idea. It led to him being eviscerated in PMQ's.

    It was his own intellectual self confidence and competence that helped him make that decision.
    Probably thinks he's intellectually superior to the Chief Exec of AZ, and therefore meeting an inferior mind would be a pointless exercise.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    AveryLP said:

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    Labour are going to have to think about bringing Gordon back.

    The 29% in 2010 will soon be looking more like a ceiling than a floor.

    Still no rise for the tories in the poll.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A national Green score of 8 at a GE would see them holding Brighton, winning Norwich South and maybe another. Scary.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited May 2014

    Lennon said:

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    Great for the Greens - Also Others up at 7 - is that the SNP/PC or genuine 'Other Others' due to the increased campaign period?
    Generally everyone else including the Nats.
    Sorry if I wasn't clear - what I meant was "Others have moved from 4 to 7, so +3 . Do you have the splits to know if that is SNP/PC going from 3 to 6, or 'Other Others' going from 1 to 4"?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    On thread.
    Labour's Mary Creagh is on BBC2 DP. Humourless, uninspiring performance by one of Ed's team.

    UKIP was more entertaining.

    "When we said ending transitional controls would mean hundreds of thousands of Bulgarian immigrants, we meant at some unspecified point in the future. Honest"
    People who declared the immigration from the a8 countries was less than predicted after 3 months were made to look very silly
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)

    Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:

    Lib Dems 1/2
    Greens 6/4
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    DavidL said:

    I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.

    Why do you say that?

    UKIP has led the EU Parliament polls all month. The one EU Parliament poll that put the Conservatives in the lead, was downplayed by ICM's bod on the Daily Politics yesterday.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    (ICM bod starts 1m40s into video)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0441q49
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)

    Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:

    Lib Dems 1/2
    Greens 6/4
    Is that Local or EU Votes?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    @Lennon, not yet, am awaiting the full Ipsos-Mori tables to go up
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Happened near me this

    Thousands chickens escape on motorway and some hop into cars

    Thousands of chickens were strewn across a motorway with hundreds making a break for freedom after the lorry carrying them crashed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howaboutthat/10830118/Thousands-chickens-escape-on-motorway-and-some-hop-into-cars.html
  • Of course the term 'crossover' implies two lines making an X. In reality the polls are not sharp, crisp and certain lines so much as zones of wooliness with a margin of error. What we are seeing now is that the Tory fuzz is merging with and starting to pass the Labour fuzz. At some point soonish we'll see the fuzzes no longer touching or overlapping at all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    DavidL said:

    Weird commentary on that poll. The tories are worried about shedding support to UKIP in a poll where they remain the same and UKIP are down 4? They might more usefully worry about where the votes have gone now. Also if Labour are down 3 and UKIP 4 where did all the votes go? Even the slightly bizarre increase in the greens doesn't cover that.

    Still, there is something quaint about having a poll with a Labour lead. It's like old times.

    Alot of journalists get a particular narrative in their heads and then stick to it come hell or high water. Like a Dan Hodges cuckoo clock they are right twice a day.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

    Sep 2013 - 21.6%
    Sep 2013 - 21.4%
    Sep 2013 - 19.4%
    Oct 2013 - 18.8%
    Oct 2013 - 18.4%
    Oct 2013 - 18.2%
    Nov 2013 - 18.4%
    Nov 2013 - 18.0%
    Dec 2013 - 17.0%
    Dec 2013 - 16.8%
    Dec 2013 - 16.4%
    Jan 2014 - 14.4%
    Jan 2014 - 14.2%
    Jan 2014 - 14.2%
    Jan 2014 - 15.2%
    Feb 2014 - 15.0%
    Feb 2014 - 15.5%
    Feb 2014 - 15.5%
    Feb 2014 - 13.7%
    Feb 2014 - 13.3%
    Feb 2014 - 14.2%
    Mar 2014 - 14.2%
    Mar 2014 - 14.5%
    Mar 2014 - 14.5%
    Mar 2014 - 14.7%
    Mar 2014 - 13.8%
    Mar 2014 - 13.0%
    Mar 2014 - 12.5%
    Apr 2014 - 12.5%
    Apr 2014 - 12.7%
    Apr 2014 - 12.7%
    Apr 2014 - 12.3%
    Apr 2014 - 11.4%
    May 2014 - 11.2%
    May 2014 - 11.2%
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    Labour are going to have to think about bringing Gordon back.

    The 29% in 2010 will soon be looking more like a ceiling than a floor.

    Still no rise for the tories in the poll.

    Tories are baked with self-raising floor.

    Just sit back and watch.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)

    Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:

    Lib Dems 1/2
    Greens 6/4
    I put a bet on with PP for the LDs to be under 4.5 MEP seats. I wouldn't be confident enough to bet on Greens vs LDs.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Lennon said:

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)

    Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:

    Lib Dems 1/2
    Greens 6/4
    Is that Local or EU Votes?
    Euros.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    I was wondering when or whether the Green vote would increase. Maybe some unhappy Labourites will jump ship over the coming months and bring some post-Euro momentum to the Greens
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)

    Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:

    Lib Dems 1/2
    Greens 6/4
    I put a bet on with PP for the LDs to be under 4.5 MEP seats. I wouldn't be confident enough to bet on Greens vs LDs.
    I remember the year the Greens got 14% in the Euros. It could happen again one day. Perhaps even soon.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Mori is another bad poll --- for both big parties.

    Greens looking very squeezable. Is that where the Lab vote has gone???

    Green Reds anyone? Threader???
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    On thread.
    Labour's Mary Creagh is on BBC2 DP. Humourless, uninspiring performance by one of Ed's team.

    UKIP was more entertaining.

    "When we said ending transitional controls would mean hundreds of thousands of Bulgarian immigrants, we meant at some unspecified point in the future. Honest"
    People who declared the immigration from the a8 countries was less than predicted after 3 months were made to look very silly
    You right sam,and I think people like scott who post the crap on immigration proberly lives in a low immigration area,proberly Scotland,am I right ;-)

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.

    Why do you say that?

    UKIP has led the EU Parliament polls all month. The one EU Parliament poll that put the Conservatives in the lead, was downplayed by ICM's bod on the Daily Politics yesterday.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    (ICM bod starts 1m40s into video)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/(programmes/b0441q49
    Because the UKIP bubble is at least deflating slightly. Down 4 at their level of support is quite a lot and the ratings for Nige are sliding as well.

    Given that Labour voters can be counted on not to vote in the Euros (they never have really) unless there is also a local election to turn out for a relative decline in UKIP support makes it more likely that the tories (who in many cases will vote for almost anything) will pip UKIP.

    I am not saying it is the most likely outcome yet. Just that 25/1 was a fabulous price and it was there for the grabbing if only their websites didn't think I was in the US.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Happened near me this

    Thousands chickens escape on motorway and some hop into cars

    Thousands of chickens were strewn across a motorway with hundreds making a break for freedom after the lorry carrying them crashed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howaboutthat/10830118/Thousands-chickens-escape-on-motorway-and-some-hop-into-cars.html

    Perhaps they belong to Ed and are desperate to come home to roost

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    You know how for weeks the commentary has been that the closer you get to the Euros the more the Westminster VI gets distorted by them?

    Now that this has once again happened its funny how the commentary is that there is absolutely no distortion because the result has gone back the way PB Tories want it to be - despite no real upswing for the Blues.

    But no matter. The European parliament elections on GE day next year will doubtless replicate these polls.....
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.

    Why do you say that?

    UKIP has led the EU Parliament polls all month. The one EU Parliament poll that put the Conservatives in the lead, was downplayed by ICM's bod on the Daily Politics yesterday.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    (ICM bod starts 1m40s into video)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/(programmes/b0441q49
    Because the UKIP bubble is at least deflating slightly. Down 4 at their level of support is quite a lot and the ratings for Nige are sliding as well.

    Given that Labour voters can be counted on not to vote in the Euros (they never have really) unless there is also a local election to turn out for a relative decline in UKIP support makes it more likely that the tories (who in many cases will vote for almost anything) will pip UKIP.

    I am not saying it is the most likely outcome yet. Just that 25/1 was a fabulous price and it was there for the grabbing if only their websites didn't think I was in the US.

    IPSOS has UKIP down 4.

    ICM has UKIP at their 2014 high. Populus has UKIP at their all time high. Opinium/Survation/YouGov all have UKIP at the upper end of their range.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Ipsos-Mori figures

    Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)

    For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)

    Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:

    Lib Dems 1/2
    Greens 6/4
    I put a bet on with PP for the LDs to be under 4.5 MEP seats. I wouldn't be confident enough to bet on Greens vs LDs.
    I remember the year the Greens got 14% in the Euros. It could happen again one day. Perhaps even soon.
    I note @Tyke has been unimpressed since the start of Labour's collapse.

    Because that Tories are not benefitting.

    Hmm.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    O/T

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27381656

    I am not saying the idea is without merit....but it kind of reminds me of....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_2lGkEU4Xs
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @RichardNabavi‌
    Have they? Bold predication...
This discussion has been closed.