politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for Amy Klobuchar
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for Amy Klobuchar
On Saturday we launched a series of posts on the various possibilities for Joe Biden as he ponders on who to choose for the VP slot on the ticket for WH2020. The second favourite in the betting is the Minnesota Senator, Amy Klobuchar, who pulled out of her White House bid to back Biden just before Super Tuesday.
Comments
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60 - the new "young".
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Reposting from yesterday since it's now on-topic:
CNN poll (the one with horrible swing state numbers for Biden) also has VP approval ratings:Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf
Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)0 -
Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?
What a crazy situation this is. The Dems have had 4 years to select a viable opponent and they spent the last 12 months shooting at one another so effectively that the only one left standing is a geriatric with a dodgy past.
Trump must be laughing his head off.1 -
I thought the VP candidate was supposed to be black. Does she want identify as such?0
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More certain than the betting markets currently imply.Mysticrose said:Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?
.4 -
Biden said he'd pick a woman, he didn't mention race.DavidL said:I thought the VP candidate was supposed to be black. Does she want identify as such?
The only reason to think the nominee might need to be black is because he won thanks to an endorsement from Jim Clyburn, and *Jim Clyburn* says the nominee should be a black woman. It's possible that Biden promised that in return for endorsement.
OTOH Biden also needed KLOBUCHAR to drop out and endorse him, so it's also possible that he promised *her* the slot in return for endorsement.
But I do think the fact that he's committed to picking a woman suggests that one of the above may be right and he may already have made someone a promise. Otherwise there wouldn't have been much in it for him to tie his hands in advance when he didn't really need to.0 -
Sad to say but in the currently highly charged political environment a black VP pick might be a negative for BidenDavidL said:I thought the VP candidate was supposed to be black. Does she want identify as such?
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Morning all,
Isn't she being a member of the Senate a problem for the party? Would need a special election on same day as other senate seats?
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I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.TGOHF666 said:0 -
IDK, the Americans don't seem to mind geriatrics, and everyone has something dodgy in their past, and if they don't the Republicans can make something up.Mysticrose said:Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?
What a crazy situation this is. The Dems have had 4 years to select a viable opponent and they spent the last 12 months shooting at one another so effectively that the only one left standing is a geriatric with a dodgy past.
Trump must be laughing his head off.
Biden is popular in the mid-west, and the voters know him well so he'll be harder to demagogue than somebody fresh. I do think they've have been better off going with KLOBUCHAR but Biden isn't a terrible choice.0 -
I doubt that.edmundintokyo said:
Biden said he'd pick a woman, he didn't mention race.DavidL said:I thought the VP candidate was supposed to be black. Does she want identify as such?
The only reason to think the nominee might need to be black is because he won thanks to an endorsement from Jim Clyburn, and *Jim Clyburn* says the nominee should be a black woman. It's possible that Biden promised that in return for endorsement.
OTOH Biden also needed KLOBUCHAR to drop out and endorse him, so it's also possible that he promised *her* the slot in return for endorsement...
Buttigieg dropping out was the key moment from a point of view of timing; I got the feeling Klobuchar was bowing to the inevitable.
But I guess it's just about possible.
...she is 60 later in the month and that would help enormously and present a younger image..
LOL0 -
We had intended you to bePulpstar said:
More certain than the betting markets currently imply.Mysticrose said:Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?
.
The next President but .....:
The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
The Middle Class was quite prepared.
But as it is! . . . My language fails!0 -
Only vacates the Senate if she wins. That's a good problem for the Democrats.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Isn't she being a member of the Senate a problem for the party? Would need a special election on same day as other senate seats?0 -
And if they do, the Republicans will still make something up.edmundintokyo said:
IDK, the Americans don't seem to mind geriatrics, and everyone has something dodgy in their past, and if they don't the Republicans can make something up.....Mysticrose said:Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?
What a crazy situation this is. The Dems have had 4 years to select a viable opponent and they spent the last 12 months shooting at one another so effectively that the only one left standing is a geriatric with a dodgy past.
Trump must be laughing his head off.0 -
I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.TGOHF666 said:1 -
The vp has to
A) do no harm
reach people Biden can’t and mitigate Biden weaknesses.
C) do the heavy lifting the candidate can’t be seen to do
D) be an acceptable substitute if the time comes
Amy? I am not sure tbh. Maybe B, Good at C and D.0 -
Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.1 -
Doesn't the (Democratic) governor appoint a temporary replacement, and there's a special election within six months ?rottenborough said:Morning all,
Isn't she being a member of the Senate a problem for the party? Would need a special election on same day as other senate seats?
(Which is the objection to Warren - her replacement would be appointed by a Republican.)0 -
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover a journalist mis-reading data.DavidL said:
I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.TGOHF666 said:1 -
Interesting news.
TSMC to Build 5nm Fab in Arizona
https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-to-build-5nm-fab-in-arizona/
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(TSMC) said it will build a 5nm fab in Arizona with support from that state and the U.S. federal government.
The facility will have a 20,000 wafer-per-month capacity, create over 1,600 jobs directly and thousands more indirect jobs, the company said in a press statement today.
The announcement comes following press reports that the U.S. government was pushing TSMC to build a fab in America. As the U.S. aims to impede China’s growth in the technology industry, TSMC faces potential U.S. restrictions on sales of its most advanced chips to Chinese companies such as Huawei, the world’s second-largest smartphone maker.
“TSMC’s motivation in building a U.S. fab is to gain favor with the United States administration,” Wedbush Securities Senior Vice President Matt Bryson said in emailed comments to EE Times. “Recent newsflow suggests greater domestic fab capabilities are a U.S. priority.”
The plan supports the pledge of U.S. President Donald Trump to bring more overseas jobs to America. The effort to slow China’s advance in 5G equipment production is also one of Trump’s initiatives aimed at protecting U.S. industry.
Construction of the fab is scheduled to start in 2021 with production targeted to begin in 2024, TSMC said in the press statement. TSMC’s total spending on this project, including capital expenditure, will be approximately $12 billion from 2021 to 2029....
...How much support is the U.S. throwing behind this?
TSMC didn’t disclose the terms of the agreement with the Arizona and U.S. federal governments. The deal could have broad implications for companies in the semiconductor ecosystem.
If this agreement helps TSMC negotiate more favorable U.S. policies and in particular gets the U.S. administration to back away from its rumored proposal to curtail supply of semiconductors made with U.S. equipment to Huawei, not only should this deal be viewed as good for TSMC, but it also has significant positive implications for the broader U.S. chipmaking equipment industry as they may avoid getting cut out of the China/Huawei supply chain, Bryson said.
There may have been other less valuable bargaining chips on the table.
“If the agreement for instance just allows TSMC to keep its U.S. military chip business and or achieve low-cost production tied to promised subsides or other benefits offered by Arizona or the U.S. to TSMC to build a U.S. based facility, the benefit is minimal,” Bryson said....0 -
It doesn’t even seem to have been data. More like gossip. Not completely convinced it justified the headlines it was given.Malmesbury said:
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover a journalist mis-reading data.DavidL said:
I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.TGOHF666 said:
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I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College1
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If Biden enters office he will be older than Reagan was when he left office and Reagan at the time was the oldest President ever elected.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
Trump is now the oldest President elected but against Biden can run as the youthful candidate being 4 years younger0 -
That for some journalists in this febrile atmosphere would equate to granite-fact.Malmesbury said:
I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.TGOHF666 said:0 -
Amy would be a great choice. Solidly Middle American, Midwest, a capable debater, and Primary performer. A highly credible POTUS if Joe had to step aside.
Completely unrelated to my heavily green book on her as Candidate and next POTUS.
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Just looking up the Senate vacancy thing:
So even if she stood down as soon as she was picked for VP, provided the announcement doesn't come in the next couple of weeks her successor will have until 2022 to generate an incumbency advantage, and they only lose two years. I doubt this will bother Biden.
Democratic Gov. Tim Walz would make a temporary appointment, and then a special election would depend on the timing of Klobuchar’s departure. If the vacancy occurs at least 11 weeks before the state’s regular primary, which is Aug. 11 this year, then the election would be held in November 2020. If it occurs less than 11 weeks before the primary, the election would be held in November 2022. Klobuchar’s current term runs through 2024.
While Minnesota has leaned Democratic in recent elections, and while a Republican hasn’t won a Minnesota Senate race since 2002, it’s a more competitive state than others on this list, giving Republicans at least a slightly better shot at an open seat than with Klobuchar continuing in office.
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/gubernatorial-appointment-powers-for-u-s-senate-seats-which-vacancies-could-prompt-a-party-switch/0 -
I think it comes from the media's ongoing inability to understand statistics.DavidL said:
I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.TGOHF666 said:
Word from Germany (not sure if it's substantiated or not) originally was that the R rate increased a bit after lockdown was eased which became a spike in cases in the media.
Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!0 -
Interesting insiders peek at Brexit process. Criticism for May and Boris unsurprising, but praise for Gove!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/may-and-johnson-hung-civil-servants-out-to-dry-report-finds0 -
I think that we will see a lot more of this kind of thing, probably in Europe as well. Being dependent upon China for manufacturing capacity is looking less and less attractive.Nigelb said:Interesting news.
TSMC to Build 5nm Fab in Arizona
https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-to-build-5nm-fab-in-arizona/
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(TSMC) said it will build a 5nm fab in Arizona with support from that state and the U.S. federal government.
The facility will have a 20,000 wafer-per-month capacity, create over 1,600 jobs directly and thousands more indirect jobs, the company said in a press statement today.
The announcement comes following press reports that the U.S. government was pushing TSMC to build a fab in America. As the U.S. aims to impede China’s growth in the technology industry, TSMC faces potential U.S. restrictions on sales of its most advanced chips to Chinese companies such as Huawei, the world’s second-largest smartphone maker.
“TSMC’s motivation in building a U.S. fab is to gain favor with the United States administration,” Wedbush Securities Senior Vice President Matt Bryson said in emailed comments to EE Times. “Recent newsflow suggests greater domestic fab capabilities are a U.S. priority.”
The plan supports the pledge of U.S. President Donald Trump to bring more overseas jobs to America. The effort to slow China’s advance in 5G equipment production is also one of Trump’s initiatives aimed at protecting U.S. industry.
Construction of the fab is scheduled to start in 2021 with production targeted to begin in 2024, TSMC said in the press statement. TSMC’s total spending on this project, including capital expenditure, will be approximately $12 billion from 2021 to 2029....
...How much support is the U.S. throwing behind this?
TSMC didn’t disclose the terms of the agreement with the Arizona and U.S. federal governments. The deal could have broad implications for companies in the semiconductor ecosystem.
If this agreement helps TSMC negotiate more favorable U.S. policies and in particular gets the U.S. administration to back away from its rumored proposal to curtail supply of semiconductors made with U.S. equipment to Huawei, not only should this deal be viewed as good for TSMC, but it also has significant positive implications for the broader U.S. chipmaking equipment industry as they may avoid getting cut out of the China/Huawei supply chain, Bryson said.
There may have been other less valuable bargaining chips on the table.
“If the agreement for instance just allows TSMC to keep its U.S. military chip business and or achieve low-cost production tied to promised subsides or other benefits offered by Arizona or the U.S. to TSMC to build a U.S. based facility, the benefit is minimal,” Bryson said....0 -
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.0 -
It's also statistically irrelevant. Nothing is ever that definite, this especially so. There's absolutely no way we are recording every infection.Philip_Thompson said:DavidL said:
I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.TGOHF666 said:
Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!0 -
My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.1
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P
I would assume that they saw/read about spikes in data in various locations. Not being up to realising that spiky data is the norm and the need for looking at trends.....DavidL said:
It doesn’t even seem to have been data. More like gossip. Not completely convinced it justified the headlines it was given.Malmesbury said:
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover a journalist mis-reading data.DavidL said:
I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.TGOHF666 said:0 -
I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.DavidL said:
I think that we will see a lot more of this kind of thing, probably in Europe as well. Being dependent upon China for manufacturing capacity is looking less and less attractive.Nigelb said:Interesting news.
TSMC to Build 5nm Fab in Arizona
https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-to-build-5nm-fab-in-arizona/
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(TSMC) said it will build a 5nm fab in Arizona with support from that state and the U.S. federal government.
The facility will have a 20,000 wafer-per-month capacity, create over 1,600 jobs directly and thousands more indirect jobs, the company said in a press statement today.
The announcement comes following press reports that the U.S. government was pushing TSMC to build a fab in America. As the U.S. aims to impede China’s growth in the technology industry, TSMC faces potential U.S. restrictions on sales of its most advanced chips to Chinese companies such as Huawei, the world’s second-largest smartphone maker.
“TSMC’s motivation in building a U.S. fab is to gain favor with the United States administration,” Wedbush Securities Senior Vice President Matt Bryson said in emailed comments to EE Times. “Recent newsflow suggests greater domestic fab capabilities are a U.S. priority.”
The plan supports the pledge of U.S. President Donald Trump to bring more overseas jobs to America. The effort to slow China’s advance in 5G equipment production is also one of Trump’s initiatives aimed at protecting U.S. industry.
Construction of the fab is scheduled to start in 2021 with production targeted to begin in 2024, TSMC said in the press statement. TSMC’s total spending on this project, including capital expenditure, will be approximately $12 billion from 2021 to 2029....
...How much support is the U.S. throwing behind this?
TSMC didn’t disclose the terms of the agreement with the Arizona and U.S. federal governments. The deal could have broad implications for companies in the semiconductor ecosystem.
If this agreement helps TSMC negotiate more favorable U.S. policies and in particular gets the U.S. administration to back away from its rumored proposal to curtail supply of semiconductors made with U.S. equipment to Huawei, not only should this deal be viewed as good for TSMC, but it also has significant positive implications for the broader U.S. chipmaking equipment industry as they may avoid getting cut out of the China/Huawei supply chain, Bryson said.
There may have been other less valuable bargaining chips on the table.
“If the agreement for instance just allows TSMC to keep its U.S. military chip business and or achieve low-cost production tied to promised subsides or other benefits offered by Arizona or the U.S. to TSMC to build a U.S. based facility, the benefit is minimal,” Bryson said....
Not impossible, though.0 -
"The big thing against her is she has a record of being a terrible boss with lots of reported ructions over the years in her office. She puts this down to her high standards..."
Anyone here who criticised Priti Patel care to delight us with some whataboutery?1 -
Agreed.edmundintokyo said:
So even if she stood down as soon as she was picked for VP, provided the announcement doesn't come in the next couple of weeks her successor will have until 2022 to generate an incumbency advantage, and they only lose two years. I doubt this will bother Biden.
Along the same lines, I doubt Whitmer will make the final VP list. She's only been Governor in Michigan for two years, and leaving the post to run as VP during the pandemic might not give the Democrats the kind of electoral boost they want.
And might risk the governorship in a key swing state.1 -
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdfedmundintokyo said:Reposting from yesterday since it's now on-topic:
CNN poll (the one with horrible swing state numbers for Biden) also has VP approval ratings:Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
Those swing state number are pure sub sample diving.0 -
Depressingly I think you're right.theakes said:My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.
What a mess. How the Democrats and the country needed a JFK, Clinton or Obama. Someone young to hold a light and say to a ravaged and riven country, 'Here, come follow the light I hold.'0 -
And of course as well (my numbers being hypothetical) 0.8 R with a small base of currently infected people is a much lower amount of new infections than 0.75 R with a much higher base of infected people.Mysticrose said:
It's also statistically irrelevant. Nothing is ever that definite, this especially so. There's absolutely no way we are recording every infection.Philip_Thompson said:DavidL said:
I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.TGOHF666 said:
Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!0 -
Oh, now he's keen on a 7 day moving average but not when talking about Sweden deathsTGOHF666 said:
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On the graph there seems to be a plateau for the last week or so.Malmesbury said:
I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.TGOHF666 said:
Every week the lockdown is being eased further, so it's not as simple as looking at one date.
For example, this week in NRW:
Sportshalls, fitness studios, dance studios and outdoor swimming pools were allowed to open. Also small outdoor concerts are allowed again.
And members of 2 households are allowed to meet in public (you could always invite as many people as you wanted into your home).
Last week it was things like playgrounds being allowed to open, next week a few more things are being allowed...
But the rules are different in different states.
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Go on. Show us the polling that shows trump is doing better with Hispanics, African Americans and Asians?theakes said:My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.
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It surely has to be a choice of Kloubuchar or Whitmer, if only to increase the chances of picking up either Wisconsin or Michigan. Although Clinton lost both by similar margins, Biden's leads look larger in Michigan at the moment so I think he'll be focused on enhancing his chances in Wisconsin.1
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Very truePhilip_Thompson said:
And of course as well (my numbers being hypothetical) 0.8 R with a small base of currently infected people is a much lower amount of new infections than 0.75 R with a much higher base of infected people.Mysticrose said:
It's also statistically irrelevant. Nothing is ever that definite, this especially so. There's absolutely no way we are recording every infection.Philip_Thompson said:DavidL said:
I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.TGOHF666 said:
Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!0 -
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.0 -
Amazon Prime have run out of Llamas. Trying Argos.2
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Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.Nigelb said:
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
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As the site's leading KLOBUCHAR stan I've criticized Priti Patel for being dim, corrupt, incompetent and a confirmed liar.Socky said:"The big thing against her is she has a record of being a terrible boss with lots of reported ructions over the years in her office. She puts this down to her high standards..."
Anyone here who criticised Priti Patel care to delight us with some whataboutery?
But I'm pretty sure I withheld judgement on the bullying thing.0 -
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Isnt that just expected from randomness? If you have 100 towns and a gradual downward trend you might find 70 decrease, 30 increase of which 5-10 might look significant?Malmesbury said:
I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.TGOHF666 said:0 -
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Biden vs Trump is America asking the world to quarantine them until 2025. Can't we have the one on the left as the Presidential nominee and the one on the right as Veep?
https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/12609557166444707840 -
Biden only needs Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the Electoral College though plus the Hillary states as a poll out yesterday had him 11% ahead in Ne02.Wulfrun_Phil said:It surely has to be a choice of Kloubuchar or Whitmer, if only to increase the chances of picking up either Wisconsin or Michigan. Although Clinton lost both by similar margins, Biden's leads look larger in Michigan at the moment so I think he'll be focused on enhancing his chances in Wisconsin.
Combined tgat wpuld give him 270 EC votes even if he lost Wisconsin0 -
So even if she stood down as soon as she was picked for VP, provided the announcement doesn't come in the next couple of weeks her successor will have until 2022 to generate an incumbency advantage, and they only lose two years. I doubt this will bother Biden.edmundintokyo said:Just looking up the Senate vacancy thing:
Democratic Gov. Tim Walz would make a temporary appointment, and then a special election would depend on the timing of Klobuchar’s departure. If the vacancy occurs at least 11 weeks before the state’s regular primary, which is Aug. 11 this year, then the election would be held in November 2020. If it occurs less than 11 weeks before the primary, the election would be held in November 2022. Klobuchar’s current term runs through 2024.
While Minnesota has leaned Democratic in recent elections, and while a Republican hasn’t won a Minnesota Senate race since 2002, it’s a more competitive state than others on this list, giving Republicans at least a slightly better shot at an open seat than with Klobuchar continuing in office.
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/gubernatorial-appointment-powers-for-u-s-senate-seats-which-vacancies-could-prompt-a-party-switch/
Let's face it, he will almost certainly have retired by then.0 -
Whitmer is likely to be too controversial given the reaction to her lock down policies, which have been seen as hard line. I think it is too risky for Biden. She could easily mobilise opposition in Michigan.HYUFD said:I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College
Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.
Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.
I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job0 -
The only candidate to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House since WW2 was 69 year old Reagan in 1980Mysticrose said:
Depressingly I think you're right.theakes said:My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.
What a mess. How the Democrats and the country needed a JFK, Clinton or Obama. Someone young to hold a light and say to a ravaged and riven country, 'Here, come follow the light I hold.'0 -
A fall in London when people weren't going to work on the bus and tube in the current numbers? It'll go away in 2 weeks after we start flooding people back onto public transport says the study?HYUFD said:
Its brave...0 -
If people haven't seen British Voter Bot you totally should this might be my favourite so far
https://twitter.com/VoterBritish/status/1261096523322007559?s=19
0 -
Quite - all the data related to this disease is spiky. Hence the use of rolling averages.noneoftheabove said:
Isnt that just expected from randomness? If you have 100 towns and a gradual downward trend you might find 70 decrease, 30 increase of which 5-10 might look significant?Malmesbury said:
I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.TGOHF666 said:
Journalists seem to fall into the trap of thinking that one swallow = summer, fairly often.0 -
If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.Philip_Thompson said:
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party0 -
out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.Malmesbury said:
Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.Nigelb said:
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.0 -
I think the market is seriously underestimating the chances that Biden drops out. Not only is his age / mental capabilities a factor but he hasn't really shaken off the sex allegations and there are too many positive things he has said about China that could come back to haunt him. I think the key here is if the Democrats think that Biden on the ticket are hurting their chances in the Senate / House. Definitely, with the Senate, Republicans are already using the Tara Reade allegations to lob accusations of hypocrisy at Democrat candidates and there are some tentative signs it is starting to hit home and make the candidates uncomfortable. That will only continuePhilip_Thompson said:
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.0 -
Trump got a lower percentage of the white vote than Romney but a higher percentage of the black and Hispanic vote ironicallyAlistair said:
Go on. Show us the polling that shows trump is doing better with Hispanics, African Americans and Asians?theakes said:My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.
0 -
Baemy is the candidate Hillary Clinton should have been.
She doesn’t have any of the arrogance, entitlement or bitterness Clinton did and is non-threatening to independents.
So, yes: I’d pick her as VP.1 -
RochdalePioneers said:
Biden vs Trump is America asking the world to quarantine them until 2025. Can't we have the one on the left as the Presidential nominee and the one on the right as Veep?
https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1260955716644470784
The one on the left has no qualifications for political office, apart from being First Lady. Hillary Clinton says Hi.
The one on the right is ineligible for the Presidency.
What the Democrats needed was -
- 45ish
- 2 term, state Govenor
- Fit
- Articulate
- Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
- Good relationship with minorities
- Good relationship with the unions
1 -
He doesn't need a Hispanic, Hillary won Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado unless he picks someone from Arizona, the only western swing state Trump won.MrEd said:
Whitmer is likely to be too controversial given the reaction to her lock down policies, which have been seen as hard line. I think it is too risky for Biden. She could easily mobilise opposition in Michigan.HYUFD said:I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College
Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.
Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.
I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job
He needs the Midwest0 -
I know the data's not very clear on how much a VP can help beyond their own state (and even that only if it's a small one) but Minnesota also borders Wisconsin, which I guess is also culturally similar.MrEd said:
Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.1 -
Back to Basics II : The revenge of the moralising Tory.HYUFD said:0 -
The problem (which I have witnessed) can be summed up thuseek said:
out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.Malmesbury said:
Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.Nigelb said:
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
A report of some hundreds of pages is prepared. It details the costs of manufacturing something in China vs a... First world democracy..
According to the report, the on-shore option would be a bit cheaper. Automation vs labour costs etc etc..
Decision makers chucked the report in the bin without reading it. "Outsourcing is always cheaper"
The problem is that they look at the headline unit labour cost. Without thinking about overall productivity.
Productivity is a function of
- Labour skill
- Management skill
- Equipment
- Culture
- Local resources - e.g. reliable power, roads....
- Legal - does the government steal stuff every other day?
- Social provision.
0 -
Can't see the appeal of Hunt. He didn't do a great job at Health; anyone who sets out to antagonise the medics isn't well advised, and he was one of the people who buried Cygnus.HYUFD said:
If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.Philip_Thompson said:
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party0 -
Or Texas...HYUFD said:
He doesn't need a Hispanic, Hillary won Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado unless he picks someone from Arizona, the only western swing state Trump won.MrEd said:
Whitmer is likely to be too controversial given the reaction to her lock down policies, which have been seen as hard line. I think it is too risky for Biden. She could easily mobilise opposition in Michigan.HYUFD said:I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College
Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.
Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.
I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job
He needs the Midwest0 -
Hunt's main advantage is he was Boris' main opponent in the leadership election and refused to serve in the Boris Cabinet.OldKingCole said:
Can't see the appeal of Hunt. He didn't do a great job at Health; anyone who sets out to antagonise the medics isn't well advised, and he was one of the people who buried Cygnus.HYUFD said:
If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.Philip_Thompson said:
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party
So like Romney is not contaminated by Trump if Trump loses having voted to impeach him, Hunt is not contaminated by Boris if Boris loses either0 -
Does such a person exist? I really liked how Buttigeig looked / spoke / acted but he was only the former mayor of Where?, like a 2020 version of Sarah Palin.Malmesbury said:What the Democrats needed was -
- 45ish
- 2 term, state Govenor
- Fit
- Articulate
- Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
- Good relationship with minorities
- Good relationship with the unions
So as Biden is already as senile as Reagan late into his 2nd term and has hands issues that won't go away, the DNC is going to be left trying to fit up anyone vaguely articulate and sensible for the ticket.
Run Cuomo.
0 -
As I said I don't have an MBAMalmesbury said:
The problem (which I have witnessed) can be summed up thuseek said:
out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.Malmesbury said:
Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.Nigelb said:
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
A report of some hundreds of pages is prepared. It details the costs of manufacturing something in China vs a... First world democracy..
According to the report, the on-shore option would be a bit cheaper. Automation vs labour costs etc etc..
Decision makers chucked the report in the bin without reading it. "Outsourcing is always cheaper"0 -
Here is my knowledge of outsourcing.eek said:
out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.Malmesbury said:
Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.Nigelb said:
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
https://www.assistum.com/examples/embeddedOutsourcing.html
You start on the circles on the left and work towards the final recommendation on the right. It uses AI/fuzzy logic and will argue with you if it thinks you are being inconsistent. But as a human, you always have the last word.
0 -
As a general point - there have been various reports, over the years, suggesting that many billions could be saved (especially for the NHS) by increasing general fitness in the population.BannedinnParis said:0 -
It's a wish list. Biden is 1 out of 7 .....RochdalePioneers said:
Does such a person exist? I really liked how Buttigeig looked / spoke / acted but he was only the former mayor of Where?, like a 2020 version of Sarah Palin.Malmesbury said:What the Democrats needed was -
- 45ish
- 2 term, state Govenor
- Fit
- Articulate
- Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
- Good relationship with minorities
- Good relationship with the unions
So as Biden is already as senile as Reagan late into his 2nd term and has hands issues that won't go away, the DNC is going to be left trying to fit up anyone vaguely articulate and sensible for the ticket.
Run Cuomo.0 -
No Democratic candidate in the primaries met those criteriaMalmesbury said:RochdalePioneers said:Biden vs Trump is America asking the world to quarantine them until 2025. Can't we have the one on the left as the Presidential nominee and the one on the right as Veep?
https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1260955716644470784
The one on the left has no qualifications for political office, apart from being First Lady. Hillary Clinton says Hi.
The one on the right is ineligible for the Presidency.
What the Democrats needed was -
- 45ish
- 2 term, state Govenor
- Fit
- Articulate
- Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
- Good relationship with minorities
- Good relationship with the unions0 -
This relies on some kind of decisive action by a vague, amorphous The Democrats.MrEd said:
I think the market is seriously underestimating the chances that Biden drops out. Not only is his age / mental capabilities a factor but he hasn't really shaken off the sex allegations and there are too many positive things he has said about China that could come back to haunt him. I think the key here is if the Democrats think that Biden on the ticket are hurting their chances in the Senate / House. Definitely, with the Senate, Republicans are already using the Tara Reade allegations to lob accusations of hypocrisy at Democrat candidates and there are some tentative signs it is starting to hit home and make the candidates uncomfortable. That will only continuePhilip_Thompson said:
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
Biden has the delegates, the job is his if he wants it. And if he doesn't want it, why did he run?0 -
In the case in question, the MBAs were reading the report.eek said:
As I said I don't have an MBAMalmesbury said:
The problem (which I have witnessed) can be summed up thuseek said:
out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.Malmesbury said:
Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.Nigelb said:
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
A report of some hundreds of pages is prepared. It details the costs of manufacturing something in China vs a... First world democracy..
According to the report, the on-shore option would be a bit cheaper. Automation vs labour costs etc etc..
Decision makers chucked the report in the bin without reading it. "Outsourcing is always cheaper"
It was written by ignorant fools* who only had experience in setting up and running industrial plants in various countries.
*They were ignorant fools because not one of them had an MBA. No lawyers, either. I think a couple had accountancy qualifications.0 -
Sure, but the claim was he was going to do even better than 2016.HYUFD said:
Trump got a lower percentage of the white vote than Romney but a higher percentage of the black and Hispanic vote ironicallyAlistair said:
Go on. Show us the polling that shows trump is doing better with Hispanics, African Americans and Asians?theakes said:My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.
0 -
Sadly, it uses Flash which any sane person would not allow anywhere near their computer - both Microsoft Edge and Chrome now follow Steve Jobs's thinking and disable it by default.Barnesian said:
Here is my knowledge of outsourcing.eek said:
out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.Malmesbury said:
Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.Nigelb said:
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
https://www.assistum.com/examples/embeddedOutsourcing.html
You start on the circles on the left and work towards the final recommendation on the right. It uses AI/fuzzy logic and will argue with you if it thinks you are being inconsistent. But as a human, you always have the last word.0 -
If he wins Texas he will have won Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin comfortably anywayGallowgate said:
Or Texas...HYUFD said:
He doesn't need a Hispanic, Hillary won Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado unless he picks someone from Arizona, the only western swing state Trump won.MrEd said:
Whitmer is likely to be too controversial given the reaction to her lock down policies, which have been seen as hard line. I think it is too risky for Biden. She could easily mobilise opposition in Michigan.HYUFD said:I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College
Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.
Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.
I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job
He needs the Midwest0 -
(Guardian)
...Life-sized cardboard cutouts of football fans are being used to try to provide atmosphere at empty stadiums in Germany as the suspended Bundesliga gets ready to resume.
Thousands of Borussia Moenchengladbach fans have ordered €18 cutouts of themselves for their first home fixture at Borussia Park next week, Reuters reports...3 -
If ministers want people to change their habits, they will need to be seen to lead the way.BannedinnParis said:
If it's bikes they want, then ditch the ministerial limos and make the roads safe for cyclists.0 -
Yes, Buttigeig was created by a computer model trained on old JFK and Clinton clips in the hope of making a candidate with the qualities you list, but it couldn't do the "2-term state governor" part.RochdalePioneers said:
Does such a person exist? I really liked how Buttigeig looked / spoke / acted but he was only the former mayor of Where?, like a 2020 version of Sarah Palin.Malmesbury said:What the Democrats needed was -
- 45ish
- 2 term, state Govenor
- Fit
- Articulate
- Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
- Good relationship with minorities
- Good relationship with the unions
0 -
Very rare that I agree with Fraser Nelson these days but I think we are going to have to try some sort of regional controls here. Even in Scotland if you are not in a care home the risk of CV seems pretty minimal outside greater Glasgow. That might not always be the case but there are a lot of people isolated from family and friends, struggling with depression and the multiple side effects of that or in need of treatment for unrelated conditions who are being locked down and are at minimal risk. And there are some who want to go back to work too. People whose wages are not being paid by the State in the main.HYUFD said:1 -
If that's his main advantage......HYUFD said:
Hunt's main advantage is he was Boris' main opponent in the leadership election and refused to serve in the Boris Cabinet.OldKingCole said:
Can't see the appeal of Hunt. He didn't do a great job at Health; anyone who sets out to antagonise the medics isn't well advised, and he was one of the people who buried Cygnus.HYUFD said:
If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.Philip_Thompson said:
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party
So like Romney is not contaminated by Trump if Trump loses having voted to impeach him, Hunt is not contaminated by Boris if Boris loses either
If he refused to serve in Boris Govt., then that does suggest some common sense somewhere. Although TBH I thought he didn't fancy the job he was offered. Didn't he want to b Foreign Sec and was offered Health? Stand to be corrected, of course.0 -
And any effort to remove him against his will would quite possibly be disastrous for the Democrats chances (which is presumably why Republicans are so keen on the idea).edmundintokyo said:
This relies on some kind of decisive action by a vague, amorphous The Democrats.MrEd said:
I think the market is seriously underestimating the chances that Biden drops out. Not only is his age / mental capabilities a factor but he hasn't really shaken off the sex allegations and there are too many positive things he has said about China that could come back to haunt him. I think the key here is if the Democrats think that Biden on the ticket are hurting their chances in the Senate / House. Definitely, with the Senate, Republicans are already using the Tara Reade allegations to lob accusations of hypocrisy at Democrat candidates and there are some tentative signs it is starting to hit home and make the candidates uncomfortable. That will only continuePhilip_Thompson said:
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
Biden has the delegates, the job is his if he wants it. And if he doesn't want it, why did he run?
It's not impossible that he might step down for reasons of health (though unlikely) but that's an entirely different matter. (And why, like @Foxy , I have money on a couple of other 'next President' bets at very long odds.)1 -
The technology is over 20 years old. When I retired 25 years ago I dumped all my key business knowledge and experience into an AI/fuzzy logic knowledge base that I created. This is one example.eek said:
Sadly, it uses Flash which any sane person would not allow anywhere near their computer - both Microsoft Edge and Chrome now disable it by default.Barnesian said:
Here is my knowledge of outsourcing.eek said:
out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.Malmesbury said:
Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.Nigelb said:
High end semiconductor fabs.Socky said:
Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?Nigelb said:I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
https://www.assistum.com/examples/embeddedOutsourcing.html
You start on the circles on the left and work towards the final recommendation on the right. It uses AI/fuzzy logic and will argue with you if it thinks you are being inconsistent. But as a human, you always have the last word.
The background is here:
https://www.assistum.com/documents/outsourcing.html0 -
Mitt Romney would be a reassuring figure in the White House. But has probably burnt too many boats so far as Republican Party is concerned. He voted to impeach Trump - admirably principled, but surely more than enough to create a host of bitter enemies.OldKingCole said:
Can't see the appeal of Hunt. He didn't do a great job at Health; anyone who sets out to antagonise the medics isn't well advised, and he was one of the people who buried Cygnus.HYUFD said:
If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.Philip_Thompson said:
I hope so.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting question.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party1 -
-
I think that fashion plays a much bigger role in all decision making than we admit.Malmesbury said:
In the case in question, the MBAs were reading the report.
It was written by ignorant fools* who only had experience in setting up and running industrial plants in various countries.
Outsourcing has been very fashionable.
0 -
Just watched a clip of Luke Johnson talking sense on QT last night:
https://order-order.com/2020/05/15/question-time-entrepreneur-soon-lockdown-will-causing-deaths-virus/
Can't believe the fragrant Fiona didn't shout over him.
Anyway, he won't be invited back.1
