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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for Amy Klobuchar
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for Amy Klobuchar
On Saturday we launched a series of posts on the various possibilities for Joe Biden as he ponders on who to choose for the VP slot on the ticket for WH2020. The second favourite in the betting is the Minnesota Senator, Amy Klobuchar, who pulled out of her White House bid to back Biden just before Super Tuesday.
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CNN poll (the one with horrible swing state numbers for Biden) also has VP approval ratings: http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf
What a crazy situation this is. The Dems have had 4 years to select a viable opponent and they spent the last 12 months shooting at one another so effectively that the only one left standing is a geriatric with a dodgy past.
Trump must be laughing his head off.
The only reason to think the nominee might need to be black is because he won thanks to an endorsement from Jim Clyburn, and *Jim Clyburn* says the nominee should be a black woman. It's possible that Biden promised that in return for endorsement.
OTOH Biden also needed KLOBUCHAR to drop out and endorse him, so it's also possible that he promised *her* the slot in return for endorsement.
But I do think the fact that he's committed to picking a woman suggests that one of the above may be right and he may already have made someone a promise. Otherwise there wouldn't have been much in it for him to tie his hands in advance when he didn't really need to.
Isn't she being a member of the Senate a problem for the party? Would need a special election on same day as other senate seats?
Biden is popular in the mid-west, and the voters know him well so he'll be harder to demagogue than somebody fresh. I do think they've have been better off going with KLOBUCHAR but Biden isn't a terrible choice.
Buttigieg dropping out was the key moment from a point of view of timing; I got the feeling Klobuchar was bowing to the inevitable.
But I guess it's just about possible.
...she is 60 later in the month and that would help enormously and present a younger image..
LOL
The next President but .....:
The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
The Middle Class was quite prepared.
But as it is! . . . My language fails!
A) do no harm
C) do the heavy lifting the candidate can’t be seen to do
D) be an acceptable substitute if the time comes
Amy? I am not sure tbh. Maybe B, Good at C and D.
Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
(Which is the objection to Warren - her replacement would be appointed by a Republican.)
TSMC to Build 5nm Fab in Arizona
https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-to-build-5nm-fab-in-arizona/
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(TSMC) said it will build a 5nm fab in Arizona with support from that state and the U.S. federal government.
The facility will have a 20,000 wafer-per-month capacity, create over 1,600 jobs directly and thousands more indirect jobs, the company said in a press statement today.
The announcement comes following press reports that the U.S. government was pushing TSMC to build a fab in America. As the U.S. aims to impede China’s growth in the technology industry, TSMC faces potential U.S. restrictions on sales of its most advanced chips to Chinese companies such as Huawei, the world’s second-largest smartphone maker.
“TSMC’s motivation in building a U.S. fab is to gain favor with the United States administration,” Wedbush Securities Senior Vice President Matt Bryson said in emailed comments to EE Times. “Recent newsflow suggests greater domestic fab capabilities are a U.S. priority.”
The plan supports the pledge of U.S. President Donald Trump to bring more overseas jobs to America. The effort to slow China’s advance in 5G equipment production is also one of Trump’s initiatives aimed at protecting U.S. industry.
Construction of the fab is scheduled to start in 2021 with production targeted to begin in 2024, TSMC said in the press statement. TSMC’s total spending on this project, including capital expenditure, will be approximately $12 billion from 2021 to 2029....
...How much support is the U.S. throwing behind this?
TSMC didn’t disclose the terms of the agreement with the Arizona and U.S. federal governments. The deal could have broad implications for companies in the semiconductor ecosystem.
If this agreement helps TSMC negotiate more favorable U.S. policies and in particular gets the U.S. administration to back away from its rumored proposal to curtail supply of semiconductors made with U.S. equipment to Huawei, not only should this deal be viewed as good for TSMC, but it also has significant positive implications for the broader U.S. chipmaking equipment industry as they may avoid getting cut out of the China/Huawei supply chain, Bryson said.
There may have been other less valuable bargaining chips on the table.
“If the agreement for instance just allows TSMC to keep its U.S. military chip business and or achieve low-cost production tied to promised subsides or other benefits offered by Arizona or the U.S. to TSMC to build a U.S. based facility, the benefit is minimal,” Bryson said....
Trump is now the oldest President elected but against Biden can run as the youthful candidate being 4 years younger
Completely unrelated to my heavily green book on her as Candidate and next POTUS.
Word from Germany (not sure if it's substantiated or not) originally was that the R rate increased a bit after lockdown was eased which became a spike in cases in the media.
Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/may-and-johnson-hung-civil-servants-out-to-dry-report-finds
The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
Not impossible, though.
Anyone here who criticised Priti Patel care to delight us with some whataboutery?
Along the same lines, I doubt Whitmer will make the final VP list. She's only been Governor in Michigan for two years, and leaving the post to run as VP during the pandemic might not give the Democrats the kind of electoral boost they want.
And might risk the governorship in a key swing state.
Those swing state number are pure sub sample diving.
What a mess. How the Democrats and the country needed a JFK, Clinton or Obama. Someone young to hold a light and say to a ravaged and riven country, 'Here, come follow the light I hold.'
Every week the lockdown is being eased further, so it's not as simple as looking at one date.
For example, this week in NRW:
Sportshalls, fitness studios, dance studios and outdoor swimming pools were allowed to open. Also small outdoor concerts are allowed again.
And members of 2 households are allowed to meet in public (you could always invite as many people as you wanted into your home).
Last week it was things like playgrounds being allowed to open, next week a few more things are being allowed...
But the rules are different in different states.
In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
But I'm pretty sure I withheld judgement on the bullying thing.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1261188079794245632?s=20
https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1260955716644470784
Combined tgat wpuld give him 270 EC votes even if he lost Wisconsin
Let's face it, he will almost certainly have retired by then.
Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.
Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.
I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job
Its brave...
https://twitter.com/VoterBritish/status/1261096523322007559?s=19
Journalists seem to fall into the trap of thinking that one swallow = summer, fairly often.
Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party
She doesn’t have any of the arrogance, entitlement or bitterness Clinton did and is non-threatening to independents.
So, yes: I’d pick her as VP.
The one on the left has no qualifications for political office, apart from being First Lady. Hillary Clinton says Hi.
The one on the right is ineligible for the Presidency.
What the Democrats needed was -
- 45ish
- 2 term, state Govenor
- Fit
- Articulate
- Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
- Good relationship with minorities
- Good relationship with the unions
He needs the Midwest
A report of some hundreds of pages is prepared. It details the costs of manufacturing something in China vs a... First world democracy..
According to the report, the on-shore option would be a bit cheaper. Automation vs labour costs etc etc..
Decision makers chucked the report in the bin without reading it. "Outsourcing is always cheaper"
The problem is that they look at the headline unit labour cost. Without thinking about overall productivity.
Productivity is a function of
- Labour skill
- Management skill
- Equipment
- Culture
- Local resources - e.g. reliable power, roads....
- Legal - does the government steal stuff every other day?
- Social provision.
So like Romney is not contaminated by Trump if Trump loses having voted to impeach him, Hunt is not contaminated by Boris if Boris loses either
So as Biden is already as senile as Reagan late into his 2nd term and has hands issues that won't go away, the DNC is going to be left trying to fit up anyone vaguely articulate and sensible for the ticket.
Run Cuomo.
https://www.assistum.com/examples/embeddedOutsourcing.html
You start on the circles on the left and work towards the final recommendation on the right. It uses AI/fuzzy logic and will argue with you if it thinks you are being inconsistent. But as a human, you always have the last word.
Biden has the delegates, the job is his if he wants it. And if he doesn't want it, why did he run?
It was written by ignorant fools* who only had experience in setting up and running industrial plants in various countries.
*They were ignorant fools because not one of them had an MBA. No lawyers, either. I think a couple had accountancy qualifications.
...Life-sized cardboard cutouts of football fans are being used to try to provide atmosphere at empty stadiums in Germany as the suspended Bundesliga gets ready to resume.
Thousands of Borussia Moenchengladbach fans have ordered €18 cutouts of themselves for their first home fixture at Borussia Park next week, Reuters reports...
If it's bikes they want, then ditch the ministerial limos and make the roads safe for cyclists.
If he refused to serve in Boris Govt., then that does suggest some common sense somewhere. Although TBH I thought he didn't fancy the job he was offered. Didn't he want to b Foreign Sec and was offered Health? Stand to be corrected, of course.
It's not impossible that he might step down for reasons of health (though unlikely) but that's an entirely different matter. (And why, like @Foxy , I have money on a couple of other 'next President' bets at very long odds.)
The background is here:
https://www.assistum.com/documents/outsourcing.html
Outsourcing has been very fashionable.
https://order-order.com/2020/05/15/question-time-entrepreneur-soon-lockdown-will-causing-deaths-virus/
Can't believe the fragrant Fiona didn't shout over him.
Anyway, he won't be invited back.