Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in a week:
- Streets heaving with people enjoying themselves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon.
Visited a garden centre this morning; busy, but social distancing pretty well enforced. Loads of dead plants though (staff been on furlough?) and some items were in short supply (e.g. John Innes No.2).
Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:
- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon. - I was the only one wearing a mask. - No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing. - All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.
Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,
What a complete farce.
Its like the behavioural scientists known a thing or two when they said people won't stick to a full lockdown for extended periods of time.
It's basically complete normality out there, which begs the question - what the f##k is the point in paying for people to be furloughed until October? If they can mix in the streets and the shops, why can't they go the office as well?
What we need to know and should be routinely asked at these press conferences is what is the average turnaround time for the tests? If its more than 48 hours it is not good enough.
Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:
- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon. - I was the only one wearing a mask. - No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing. - All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.
Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,
What a complete farce.
Its like the behavioural scientists known a thing or two when they said people won't stick to a full lockdown for extended periods of time.
Just didn't see the masks ever taking off, to be honest. Spotted 1 (!) today whilst walking the dog for 5mi, which was correctly worn - it was a proper full on gas mask. About 7 or 8 worn incorrectly, mostly as chin guards.
Lots of people fingering them to answer phone etc. Honestly, I can see why the government aren't going to push this one - its so not ingrained in our culture
(Guardian) The Czech Republic is to allow gatherings of up to 300 people later this month as its coronavirus infection rate remains among the lowest in Europe, AFP reports.
Gatherings including sports events will be allowed from 25 May, when businesses including restaurants and pubs will also be allowed to open, the health minister, Adam Vojtech, said.
Shopping centres, cinemas, barbers and restaurant terraces opened on Monday after nearly two months under lockdown.
The country of 10.7 million people had registered 8,352 confirmed coronavirus cases and 293 deaths by Friday morning.
“If the epidemiological situation remains favourable, the limit will grow to 500 people on 8 June and to 1,000 on 22 June,” Vojtech said of the size of gatherings that would be permissible.
He said restaurants and bars would not be allowed to stay open after 11pm after a recent upsurge of cases in South Korea was linked to nightclubs.
Further easing would take place only if daily infection counts did not increase after staying well under 100 cases daily throughout May, said the epidemiologist Rastislav Madar, part of an official advisory team.
Some credit the success in stemming infections to the mandatory face mask rule, which will be eased from 25 May, when they will only be required in shops, offices and on public transport.
No, there is nothing wrong with devolved governments taking a slightly different approach while maintaining the Union.
In domestic policy Westminster is effectively the English Parliament now anyway, it just sets some tax and foreign policy for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
Yeah, that's all.
Part 1.
List of reserved matters
Reserved matters are subdivided into two categories: General reservations and specific reservations.
General reservations cover major issues which are always handled centrally by the Parliament in Westminster:[5]
the Crown the Union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland the making of peace or war defence treaties or any relations with foreign states or dominions naturalisation external trade quarantine navigation (including merchant shipping) submarine cables wireless telegraphy aerial navigation lighthouses currency copyright treason the UK Parliament registration and funding of political parties international development the Home Civil Service
Specific reservations cover particular areas of social and economic policy which are reserved to Westminster, listed under 11 'heads':[6]
data protection and access to information elections film classification immigration and nationality scientific procedures on live animals national security and counter-terrorism betting, gaming and lotteries emergency powers extradition lieutenancies charities
Head C – Trade and Industry
business associations insolvency competition intellectual property import and export control sea fishing outside the Scottish zone customer protection product standards, safety and liability weights and measures telecommunications postal services research councils
So as I said the vast majority of health, education, welfare, housing, transport, police, social care policy etc is devolved to Holyrood.
Scotland also has its own criminal and civil legal system
One of the interesting things about the Scottish Nationalists is their apparent enthusiasm to join one union - the EU - which is rapidly centralising and sucking power to Brussels. While leaving another one - the UK - which has moved extraordinarily fast in the other direction.
Meanwhile within Scotland the SNP Govt has gone to great lengths to snuff out or emasculate any organisation which has a degree of autonomy from Holyrood.
They are not so much pro-Scottish as anti-British.
Indeed, if they were truly pro Scottish they would back leaving the UK and EU.
They are mainly anti Tory and anti UK
So to be truly pro Scottish you definitely have to back leaving the UK? Fair enough.
Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:
- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon. - I was the only one wearing a mask. - No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing. - All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.
Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,
What a complete farce.
Its like the behavioural scientists known a thing or two when they said people won't stick to a full lockdown for extended periods of time.
Just didn't see the masks ever taking off, to be honest. Spotted 1 (!) today whilst walking the dog for 5mi, which was correctly worn - it was a proper full on gas mask. About 7 or 8 worn incorrectly, mostly as chin guards.
Lots of people fingering them to answer phone etc. Honestly, I can see why the government aren't going to push this one - its so not ingrained in our culture
We got our first delivery of masks today. Might use them in supermarkets. Probably not otherwise.
Single men and women in the Netherlands are being advised to organise a seksbuddy (sex buddy) after criticism of rules dictating that home visitors maintain a 1.5-metre distance from their hosts during the coronavirus lockdown.
In a typically open-minded intervention, official guidance from the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has been amended to suggest those without a permanent sexual partner come to mutually satisfactory agreements with like-minded individuals.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
69,590 people. Its almost 2 tests each. Is that not a bit weird?
I have heard it stated that the negative for the swab test is 75% accurate.
So the first negative is 75% probability of being right. So you try again and get a negative - 93.75% probability of being right. So you try again.....
69,590 people. Its almost 2 tests each. Is that not a bit weird?
I have heard it stated that the negative for the swab test is 75% accurate.
So the first negative is 75% probability of being right. So you try again and get a negative - 93.75% probability of being right. So you try again.....
No big uptick in positive results which is a good sign given it was a sunny bank holiday weekend last week's hopefully that holds for the next few days and we get clear evidence of lesser or very little outdoor transmission.
69,590 people. Its almost 2 tests each. Is that not a bit weird?
I have heard it stated that the negative for the swab test is 75% accurate.
So the first negative is 75% probability of being right. So you try again and get a negative - 93.75% probability of being right. So you try again.....
On the same day?
I would imagine that it's one of those reporting day issues.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
What we need to know and should be routinely asked at these press conferences is what is the average turnaround time for the tests? If its more than 48 hours it is not good enough.
The other big issue is that tests made in the pop up test centres (most of them now) aren't being fully reported. Or possibly not reported at all - the Dept of Health deny this however. So if you get tested at the centre, you will presumably get a message that you tested negative or positive, but it doesn't get monitored. It doesn't go on your GP record, you won't show up as a case for any tracking and if you subsequently die, you won't be recorded as a Covid-19 death even though you tested positive.
Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:
- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon. - I was the only one wearing a mask. - No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing. - All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.
Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,
What a complete farce.
Its like the behavioural scientists known a thing or two when they said people won't stick to a full lockdown for extended periods of time.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.
We’re not trying to do that. We’re trying to balance reopening the economy with keeping the domestic transmission rate around 1 or below.
In Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania—Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall”—19 counties report coronavirus cases doubling in less than 14 days. Trump won all but one of those counties, by an average of 65 percent.
Democrats are working to ensure that doesn’t happen again by casting his stewardship over the virus and economy as a betrayal.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.
We’re not trying to do that. We’re trying to balance reopening the economy with keeping the domestic transmission rate around 1 or below.
It's pretty clear that it's the medium term goal, otherwise why bother with quarantine on arrival.
What we need to know and should be routinely asked at these press conferences is what is the average turnaround time for the tests? If its more than 48 hours it is not good enough.
It should not be counted as a test for the stats if its over 48 hours. The scale is needed for test track and trace and that absolutely needs a fast turn around time, Id suggest aiming at <12 hours as a target.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.
We’re not trying to do that. We’re trying to balance reopening the economy with keeping the domestic transmission rate around 1 or below.
It's pretty clear that it's the medium term goal, otherwise why bother with quarantine on arrival.
Optics. People get angry about having their lives restricted while seeing planes arrive at airports.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.
We’re not trying to do that. We’re trying to balance reopening the economy with keeping the domestic transmission rate around 1 or below.
It's pretty clear that it's the medium term goal, otherwise why bother with quarantine on arrival.
Optics. People get angry about having their lives restricted while seeing planes arrive at airports.
Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:
- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon. - I was the only one wearing a mask. - No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing. - All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.
Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,
What a complete farce.
Well, Whitstable may not be typical, either for behaviour or furlough. Here in my much larger city, c. 300K, rules are being obeyed pretty universally, and it is much quieter than normal. And the wonderful folk cleaning the streets, emptying the bins, serving in the shops, staffing the crematorium, driving the buses, delivering food and so on are certainly not on furlough.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.
We’re not trying to do that. We’re trying to balance reopening the economy with keeping the domestic transmission rate around 1 or below.
It's pretty clear that it's the medium term goal, otherwise why bother with quarantine on arrival.
Optics. People get angry about having their lives restricted while seeing planes arrive at airports.
Another case of Boris derangement syndrome...
No, I don’t suffer from that. We’re doing pretty much the same as other European countries.
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.
We’re not trying to do that. We’re trying to balance reopening the economy with keeping the domestic transmission rate around 1 or below.
We are trying to do that.
If transmission rate is 1 or below then number of cases will be logarithmically falling to zero - and from a low base after lockdown too. There may be cases transmitting but they will be as close to zero as possible.
"It comes as Drakeford publishes the lockdown exit plan for Wales, setting out a traffic light system for progressive easing of restrictions on education, social life and business."
Its all a bit silly isn't it. We can't have the UK government 5 level system, we have to show everybody we have control and power, so we will use a traffic light system instead.
I think in part this splintered approach to the lockdown is a natural consequence of devolution - after all, if everybody always does the same thing and fails to take account of local conditions, then what's the point of it? But also there are political imperatives at work - as you say, they have to show everybody that they're in charge. In Wales this is because we're Labour and we don't take orders from the evil Tories. In Scotland this is because we want independence and to be rid of the evil Tories. In Northern Ireland this is because our Government is a two-headed snake and the heads are too busy trying to bite each other for the body to move very far.
The easiest solution to all of this is to scrap the Union as soon as the immediate crisis is out of the way. Then everyone can do their own thing 100% of the time and these sorts of differences will cease to be a problem.
No, there is nothing wrong with devolved governments taking a slightly different approach while maintaining the Union.
In domestic policy Westminster is effectively the English Parliament now anyway, it just sets some tax and foreign policy for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
Westminster is obviously not the English Parliament because it still contains 117 members who aren't elected in England.
Conversely, why the situation should still prevail in which these other countries require large areas of policy to be decided by an assembly consisting mainly of English people, goodness only knows.
We must remember that (with all the usual caveats around Northern Ireland,) the UK is a union of nations and not one of regions like most properly constituted federations (the US, Canada, Australia, Germany etc.) And it's one that's outlived its usefulness.
What conceivable value the Union with Scotland, for example, holds for the English people is never adequately articulated. The only obvious answers anybody can come up with are 'we need somewhere to put our ballistic missile submarines' and 'we might have to give up our UN Security Council seat otherwise,' and these are matters of no importance to almost the entire general population of the country - who are mostly interested in getting on with their lives in peace and, to the extent that politics troubles them at all, are primarily concerned with resolving England's many internal problems.
All of the conditions that promoted the creation of the United Kingdom and necessitated its continuity have been removed. It should be euthanized compassionately and given a decent burial.
Rubbish, the UK is now effectively a Federal nation and Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland are basically regions of the UK, none have been independent nations for centuries.
Bavaria was once an independent country, that does not stop it now being a region of a Federal Germany.
Scotland also has plenty of oil and renewable energy, a thriving financial sector and whisky industry and some excellent universities and regiments as well as holding Trident. It contributes a great deal to the UK
You get dafter by the day, delusion does not cover it. You make Trump sound like a reasonable sensible person.
He is the mirror to yourself Malcolm. He is an unthinkingly loyal keyboard warrior for The Clown, and you an unthinkingly loyal keyboard warrior for Jimmy Krankie
Makes a lot more sense than you by far and contributes some real data rather than just hogwash. He has his viewpoint which is to be respected. @HYFUD
Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.
How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?
Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.
We’re not trying to do that. We’re trying to balance reopening the economy with keeping the domestic transmission rate around 1 or below.
We are trying to do that.
If transmission rate is 1 or below then number of cases will be logarithmically falling to zero - and from a low base after lockdown too. There may be cases transmitting but they will be as close to zero as possible.
We won’t achieve it by October at the rate we’re going, and by definition we can’t be “open for business” if we’re quarantining people coming into the country.
Comments
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1261301748943257606?s=19
Roads on route were noticeably busier.
Lots of people fingering them to answer phone etc. Honestly, I can see why the government aren't going to push this one - its so not ingrained in our culture
Gatherings including sports events will be allowed from 25 May, when businesses including restaurants and pubs will also be allowed to open, the health minister, Adam Vojtech, said.
Shopping centres, cinemas, barbers and restaurant terraces opened on Monday after nearly two months under lockdown.
The country of 10.7 million people had registered 8,352 confirmed coronavirus cases and 293 deaths by Friday morning.
“If the epidemiological situation remains favourable, the limit will grow to 500 people on 8 June and to 1,000 on 22 June,” Vojtech said of the size of gatherings that would be permissible.
He said restaurants and bars would not be allowed to stay open after 11pm after a recent upsurge of cases in South Korea was linked to nightclubs.
Further easing would take place only if daily infection counts did not increase after staying well under 100 cases daily throughout May, said the epidemiologist Rastislav Madar, part of an official advisory team.
Some credit the success in stemming infections to the mandatory face mask rule, which will be eased from 25 May, when they will only be required in shops, offices and on public transport.
Single men and women in the Netherlands are being advised to organise a seksbuddy (sex buddy) after criticism of rules dictating that home visitors maintain a 1.5-metre distance from their hosts during the coronavirus lockdown.
In a typically open-minded intervention, official guidance from the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has been amended to suggest those without a permanent sexual partner come to mutually satisfactory agreements with like-minded individuals.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/15/dutch-official-advice-to-single-people-find-a-sex-buddy-for-lockdown-coronavirus
So the first negative is 75% probability of being right.
So you try again and get a negative - 93.75% probability of being right.
So you try again.....
And no, innocent till proved guilty remains the law and rightly so.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/dozens-wrongly-charged-coronavirus-laws-cps-a4441871.html
Oops. Maybe they should give Sir Keith his old job back.
Democrats are working to ensure that doesn’t happen again by casting his stewardship over the virus and economy as a betrayal.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/14/coronavirus-economic-collapse-rust-belt-trump-259657
But AFAIK that is not the case.
If transmission rate is 1 or below then number of cases will be logarithmically falling to zero - and from a low base after lockdown too. There may be cases transmitting but they will be as close to zero as possible.
@HYFUD
Like, hours back.