politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summ
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Looks like it is going to be painful watching World Cup games that are shown on ITV this summer....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2627602/Why-mans-World-Cup-ITV-Channel-defends-unveiling-16-strong-male-line-presenters-pundits.html0 -
Whilst I don't disagree with your point, that youth unemployment figure is very misleading, as it includes lots of students. 707,000 18-24 year olds were counted in the statistics as unemployed, but only 284,700 of those were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (March 2014 figures):HurstLlama said:Youth unemployment in this country still seems way, way too high. It is still hovering around the 20% mark and if someone gets to 24 without ever having had a proper job (or having been in higher education) their life chances are going to be pretty miserable. A life on benefits awaits them.
http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05871.pdf
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As long as HMRC get tough on transfer pricing as Osborne declared in the budget then profits will be taxed accordingly.DecrepitJohnL said:
Profits flowing overseas means our export are paradoxically also invisible imports. IP held overseas. Even ease of closure, which you count as a benefit. But the wider issue is surely why can't British firms make cars (or anything else) here when foreign companies can?MaxPB said:
Why does it matter if their car makers are French and ours aren't British? Do Tata, Nissan or GM not employ people? The UK car industry has been highly successful under foreign management with the threat of mass closures if unions get uppity. It's a good balance and everyone benefits. French car companies are in a complete state, there are no profits to be had. I would rather have a foreign owned industry which employs people and is growing than a domestically owned one which is contracting filled with militant unions and idiotic management. Obviously the best scenario would be that of Japan or Germany, but that doesn't seem possible unless Tata were to float JLR in London.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but their car-makers are French and ours are German, Japanese and Indian.SeanT said:Underlining the UK industrial renaissance. I wonder how many people noticed this? -
The UK now makes more cars than France.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2535625/British-carmakers-overtake-French-time-40-years-output-hits-record-high.html
And what has changed since the 1980s when our car plants were closing? Unions, perhaps; management, certainly.
The reason is very simple, British companies are horrendously short sighted and the management is poor. The reason there are very few truly global British success stories in manufacturing is because of poor management. RR, BAe, JCB and a few others are the homegrown success stories, but for every one of those Germany has 10 others because long term vision from management to grow and invest rather than take money out of the business for shareholders.0 -
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Sad News : Cancer sufferer Stephen Sutton who raised more than £3 million for the teenage Cancer trust has died0
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They did it in Glasgow too. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain local sect wasn't over represented in their ranks.TheScreamingEagles said:As we were talking about Britain First last night
Far right activists have targeted mosques in Bradford attempting to hand out Bibles and distribute leaflets accusing community elders of failing to stop grooming gangs.
It is believed members of Britain First, some wearing uniforms, staged the protests at 10 places of worship in the city centre. The group posted images of themselves on Facebook confronting members of the Asian community.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/farright-activists-hand-out-bibles-outside-mosques-in-bradford-9352271.html
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I come on here to find the Tories have won the general election!0
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That is very sad news.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stephen Sutton has died.
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More Business bashing from EdM on PMQs. Just imagine him as PM. I shudder.0
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I am beginning to believe that Jack W's oft repeated view of Mr Miliband's job prospects may well be right. This is just not good enough.0
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No, I think it's more that Ed has lost it.BobaFett said:I come on here to find the Tories have won the general election!
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Very sad news.RIP lad.marke09 said:Sad News : Cancer sufferer Stephen Sutton who raised more than £3 million for the teenage Cancer trust has died
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Well quite - I’m reminded of Piers Morgan’s puff piece interview and all the favours called by LHQ in an attempted to portray Gordon Brown as vaguely human. – If Labour MPs have to explain every time they are interviewed, what Ed’s ‘true’ character is really like at this stage of the game, there’s a pretty good chance they are onto a loser and people’s minds are already made up. - what did the Mail find in its poll how Ed is most regarded: 'thick, wet and sexless'TCPoliticalBetting said:Fiddling while Rome burns?
It's quite unfair in my opinion, but there you go.0 -
Projecting again.BobaFett said:I come on here to find the Tories have won the general election!
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If you go back a few weeks you'll find some Labour posters talking about their being no cross over and Ed will be PM next year.BobaFett said:I come on here to find the Tories have won the general election!
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If there was a Thatcherite as the Conservative then yes. Alas we have a Clarkite. NickMP still looks nailed on.TheScreamingEagles said:
They are very much appreciated.antifrank said:
I'm glad they're appreciated! They're mainly written for my own benefit, to help me work out my thinking and to record it for future reference (so I can see where I went wrong).Richard_Nabavi said:@antifrank - Many thanks for your excellent series of articles. Silence doesn't mean that they haven't been read attentively (and some bets placed accordingly).
On a related note, given present polling and the general trends, is backing the Tories in Broxtowe at 7/2 value?
Has she built an impressive campaign team Nick?
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Woeful from Ed, walked straight into a right hook. He clearly think Pfizer is a vote winner for him0
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@benedictbrogan: This 'Stop the markets, we want to get off' line from @Ed_Miliband curious. Do voters believe he can protect them? Polls suggest not #PMQs0
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The ones who are planning to hold a rally in Scotland just prior to the referendum?Theuniondivvie said:
They did it in Glasgow too. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain local sect wasn't over represented in their ranks.TheScreamingEagles said:As we were talking about Britain First last night
Far right activists have targeted mosques in Bradford attempting to hand out Bibles and distribute leaflets accusing community elders of failing to stop grooming gangs.
It is believed members of Britain First, some wearing uniforms, staged the protests at 10 places of worship in the city centre. The group posted images of themselves on Facebook confronting members of the Asian community.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/farright-activists-hand-out-bibles-outside-mosques-in-bradford-9352271.html0 -
Re: PMQs
I do think Cameron has adopted the wrong approach here by getting angry with EdM. A more calm and assured performance returning each jibe back at him with the barb of Ed's ratings could have won this match.0 -
I'd add my thanks to the throng. The only reason that I don't comment on them is because they are so clear and well written that you appear to have said everything already!peter_from_putney said:Antifrank - I second RN's comments and it's clear your blog already has quite a considerable fan base. Your pieces are much appreciated even if we don't appear to comment thereon to the extent they merit.
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I'm sorry that my early forecast was "just not good enough" but I'm minded to declare that almost four years notice that "Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister" wasn't too shabby !!DavidL said:I am beginning to believe that Jack W's oft repeated view of Mr Miliband's job prospects may well be right. This is just not good enough.
Titters ....
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The good ones die young, and the young man was a gooden. RIP.Tykejohnno said:
Very sad news.RIP lad.marke09 said:Sad News : Cancer sufferer Stephen Sutton who raised more than £3 million for the teenage Cancer trust has died
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Looking at PMQs as a whole, I'd agree.TCPoliticalBetting said:Re: PMQs
I do think Cameron has adopted the wrong approach here by getting angry with EdM. A more calm and assured performance returning each jibe back at him with the barb of Ed's ratings could have won this match.
I suspect both leaders have their eye on the evening news, and which 10 second excerpt will be shown, to permit a calm and measured approach.0 -
He was simon.SimonStClare said:
The good ones die young, and the young man was a gooden. RIP.Tykejohnno said:
Very sad news.RIP lad.marke09 said:Sad News : Cancer sufferer Stephen Sutton who raised more than £3 million for the teenage Cancer trust has died
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OMG - Dave just used a Take That reference into his reply about Gary Barlow's tax affairs.0
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Not sure about nailed on he has a decent chance but 7/2 looks great odds in that constituency for Anna.TCPoliticalBetting said:
If there was a Thatcherite as the Conservative then yes. Alas we have a Clarkite. NickMP still looks nailed on.TheScreamingEagles said:
They are very much appreciated.antifrank said:
I'm glad they're appreciated! They're mainly written for my own benefit, to help me work out my thinking and to record it for future reference (so I can see where I went wrong).Richard_Nabavi said:@antifrank - Many thanks for your excellent series of articles. Silence doesn't mean that they haven't been read attentively (and some bets placed accordingly).
On a related note, given present polling and the general trends, is backing the Tories in Broxtowe at 7/2 value?
Has she built an impressive campaign team Nick?
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Leave Gary Barlow alone!
Whatever he said, whatever he did, he didn't mean it.0 -
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 42s
Cameron on Gary Barlow tax avoidance: "To coin a phrase, we want your money back for good" #pmqs0 -
A NO result would, by definition, be a historic defeat for Scotland. And David Cameron's greatest victory.Bond_James_Bond said:
Scotland can't both vote Yes and win.Stuart_Dickson said:Nice timing with The Crossover. Just in the run up to the IndyRef. Somebody up there wants Scotland to win.
Ye cannae change the laws of physics, Jim.
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Labour ... NHS ... Wales.
Lethal.0 -
Honestly, what is this obsession in putting in subtle pop music references into political replies and articles?
*Innocent Face*0 -
The Crossover look place after the TNS fieldwork had closed.felix said:Stuart_Dickson said:Nice timing with The Crossover. Just in the run up to the IndyRef. Somebody up there wants Scotland to win.
Yesterday's poll on Sind showed little significant change.
Anyhoo, it'll take a few weeks for The Crossover to drip into the national consciousness. It is best if YES does not get a polling lead until late in the day. In fact, the later the better.0 -
Most Scots still in Scotland, surely.Scott_P said:
I can just see Nicola on the stump now. "We want to leave the fastest growing economy in Europe, but stay tied to Bulgaria. The highest levels of employment since records began are not for the likes of us. Stay in Scotland. Die young."peter_from_putney said:As the UK economy continues to improve, this seems likely to increase the chances of a "No" vote in Scotland, just as the reverse would probably have been the case.
Who doesn't want to vote for that?
By analogy, the fact that dogs are in favour of lamp-posts does not mean dogs want jobs in a lamp-post factory.0 -
It was a good choice to change the mood on a "sleaze-type" issue.TheScreamingEagles said:Honestly, what is this obsession in putting in subtle pop music references into political replies and articles?
*Innocent Face*0 -
@DecrepitJohnL
"Why can't British companies make cars (or anything else) here when foreign companies can? "
Where is AlanBrooke when you need him? UK companies do make lots of serious stuff, at high end engineering the UK is pretty damn good with some world leaders in the pack. Why isn't there more of it and why did we end up with no indigenous car makers?
Well, I think you have to go back in history for that answer. Short-term, make a quick quid, attitude by our finance people (a problem that dates back to the 18th century). Piss poor management skills (a problem that dates back to the late 19th century education reforms). An attitude to industrial relations by the Unions that never evolved from the 19th century (Atlee offered the trade unions seats on the boards of his nationalised industries and the unions turned him down - wasn't their job to manage they were there to fight management). A distrust of the professional, i.e. someone trained and who knew what they were talking about, when it came to production and processes. An education system not-geared to a modern industrial society (see above for education reforms in the 1870s and every attempt at reform since then).
What Honda, and their like, could do, because they were coming from outside, was cut through all that historical baggage and get at the native genius of the British worker. I remember reading a few years ago the most productive plant, and the one with the best worker contributions to improving productivity, that Toyota has was in the UK.
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ITV always packs too many people (of either sex) on its panels imo.FrancisUrquhart said:Looks like it is going to be painful watching World Cup games that are shown on ITV this summer....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2627602/Why-mans-World-Cup-ITV-Channel-defends-unveiling-16-strong-male-line-presenters-pundits.html0 -
Yep. We can only hope that Edinburgh Council sees sense and allows them to display their optimistic and joyful message to the voters.TheScreamingEagles said:
The ones who are planning to hold a rally in Scotland just prior to the referendum?Theuniondivvie said:
They did it in Glasgow too. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain local sect wasn't over represented in their ranks.TheScreamingEagles said:As we were talking about Britain First last night
Far right activists have targeted mosques in Bradford attempting to hand out Bibles and distribute leaflets accusing community elders of failing to stop grooming gangs.
It is believed members of Britain First, some wearing uniforms, staged the protests at 10 places of worship in the city centre. The group posted images of themselves on Facebook confronting members of the Asian community.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/farright-activists-hand-out-bibles-outside-mosques-in-bradford-9352271.html
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Really sorry to see the news that Stephen Sutton has passed. I just hope his family get to grieve in private.0
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Yes are very fortunate in that some of their opponents are so rubbish and voter repellents.Theuniondivvie said:
Yep. We can only hope that Edinburgh Council sees sense and allows them to display their optimistic and joyful message to the voters.TheScreamingEagles said:
The ones who are planning to hold a rally in Scotland just prior to the referendum?Theuniondivvie said:
They did it in Glasgow too. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain local sect wasn't over represented in their ranks.TheScreamingEagles said:As we were talking about Britain First last night
Far right activists have targeted mosques in Bradford attempting to hand out Bibles and distribute leaflets accusing community elders of failing to stop grooming gangs.
It is believed members of Britain First, some wearing uniforms, staged the protests at 10 places of worship in the city centre. The group posted images of themselves on Facebook confronting members of the Asian community.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/farright-activists-hand-out-bibles-outside-mosques-in-bradford-9352271.html0 -
RIP Stephen. You took something terrible and turned it into something fantastic. Far too short a life but one very well lived.0
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Some deliciously Neanderthal comments on the Mail/ITV/Kickball story.
Someone actually went for the 'have a woman along to make the tea' classic. Bravo!0 -
IPSOS MORI OUT
abour is down three points since April to 34 per cent. This equals its lowest share since June 2010 when the defeated party was leaderless after the resignation of Gordon Brown.
However, Mr Miliband’s party is still three points ahead of the Conservatives, on 31 per cent. It will fuel anxiety in Tory ranks that Mr Cameron is shedding support to Ukip.
Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are frozen on nine per cent. Nigel Farage’s post-debates bounce fizzled out, with his party dropping four points to 11.
Today’s big winners are the Greens, whose support has shot up from three to eight points on the back of higher exposure in the campaign period. Green leader Natalie Bennett claimed voters were disenchanted with the big parties and that the polls “chime with what I am hearing around the country”.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labours-poll-ratings-take-a-dive-as-confidence-in-uk-economy-higher-than-ever-9368495.html?origin=internalSearch0 -
No more PMQ's until 18th June .... Ed will be relieved !!0
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Quite - there's an embedded false dichotomy in the argument that "our" manufacturers are all foreign in that it implies they could all somehow be British. We had our chance to try that and it flopped.MaxPB said:
Why does it matter if their car makers are French and ours aren't British? Do Tata, Nissan or GM not employ people? The UK car industry has been highly successful under foreign management with the threat of mass closures if unions get uppity. It's a good balance and everyone benefits. French car companies are in a complete state, there are no profits to be had. I would rather have a foreign owned industry which employs people and is growing than a domestically owned one which is contracting filled with militant unions and idiotic management. Obviously the best scenario would be that of Japan or Germany, but that doesn't seem possible unless Tata were to float JLR in London.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but their car-makers are French and ours are German, Japanese and Indian.SeanT said:Underlining the UK industrial renaissance. I wonder how many people noticed this? -
The UK now makes more cars than France.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2535625/British-carmakers-overtake-French-time-40-years-output-hits-record-high.html
And what has changed since the 1980s when our car plants were closing? Unions, perhaps; management, certainly.
Although it's a shame that Triumph, the British BMW, was never somehow spun out of BLMC and saved. Why they put the MG back into production instead of the Stag I will never know. OK, I do know (the tools don't exist) but the 2 + 2 droptop was genius, poorly executed.0 -
From a not unsympathetic FT article linked to down thread:
"Mr Balls admitted that voters needed reassuring that Labour would “make the sums add up” and that the party understood the need for wealth creation and supported entrepreneurs.
Lord Jones, a business minister in the last Labour government, said on Tuesday that he believed Mr Miliband was “one of the least business friendly leaders of political parties I’ve seen for years”.
But Mr Balls, seen as a supporter of business and the City in the Labour leadership team, said: “I don’t think Labour will win the next election as an anti-business party.”
How does that explain that performance at PMQs? How many more times will it take for the penny to drop that whatever the short term populism this constant attack on business is going to be fatal to the Labour party? Balls gets it. His boss really needs to rethink.
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Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)0 -
Very. What a lovely chap. I am so glad we thought to send him some money.fitalass said:That is very sad news.
TheScreamingEagles said:Stephen Sutton has died.
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Neil is going to be full to the brim with girlish glee0
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Off Topic Molybdenum has picked up from $20000/Tonne at Year Start to $30000/Tonne now.
Non ferrous general basket $1750 -> $2100...
Forward indicator of incoming imported inflation perhaps ?0 -
Moronic reporting. Fuel fears that Cons are leaking to a party that is down 4 points!TheScreamingEagles said:IPSOS MORI OUT
abour is down three points since April to 34 per cent. This equals its lowest share since June 2010 when the defeated party was leaderless after the resignation of Gordon Brown.
However, Mr Miliband’s party is still three points ahead of the Conservatives, on 31 per cent. It will fuel anxiety in Tory ranks that Mr Cameron is shedding support to Ukip.
Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are frozen on nine per cent. Nigel Farage’s post-debates bounce fizzled out, with his party dropping four points to 11.
Today’s big winners are the Greens, whose support has shot up from three to eight points on the back of higher exposure in the campaign period. Green leader Natalie Bennett claimed voters were disenchanted with the big parties and that the polls “chime with what I am hearing around the country”.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labours-poll-ratings-take-a-dive-as-confidence-in-uk-economy-higher-than-ever-9368495.html?origin=internalSearch
Greens on 8?!
What are the all naming a party figures? labour usually do better in those, although last month, spookily enough, they didn't.0 -
That looks like a classic Euro period poll.TheScreamingEagles said:IPSOS MORI OUT
abour is down three points since April to 34 per cent. This equals its lowest share since June 2010 when the defeated party was leaderless after the resignation of Gordon Brown.
However, Mr Miliband’s party is still three points ahead of the Conservatives, on 31 per cent. It will fuel anxiety in Tory ranks that Mr Cameron is shedding support to Ukip.
Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are frozen on nine per cent. Nigel Farage’s post-debates bounce fizzled out, with his party dropping four points to 11.
Today’s big winners are the Greens, whose support has shot up from three to eight points on the back of higher exposure in the campaign period. Green leader Natalie Bennett claimed voters were disenchanted with the big parties and that the polls “chime with what I am hearing around the country”.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labours-poll-ratings-take-a-dive-as-confidence-in-uk-economy-higher-than-ever-9368495.html?origin=internalSearch0 -
Can we spot the the trend?
Ed Miliband suffered a new blow as the poll revealed Labour crashing to one of its worst shares since the party’s 2010 general election disaster.0 -
IndyRef betting news.
Fantastic timing: the "Crossover" has stimulated the first move in the IndyRef market in weeks. The new best prices are:
Yes 5/2 (PP, Lad)
No 2/5 SJ (from 4/11)0 -
@DecriptJohnL
You asked why so few British Companies are doing high end production, well here might be your answer:
"As an observation, it sucks to hire young people and train them up. Why? Because training people is expensive, and the moment they have marketable skills, they move on to someone paying full rate"
Management don't want to invest in their people because said people might leave once they are trained. I have been listening to that shit for thirty years and to find someone like RCS100 still spouting it in 2014 makes me furious.0 -
So on average the Tories are ahead with the phone pollsters, with a year to go.
That is splendiferous0 -
@ThescreamingEagles Great poll for the Greens, poor for UKIP, bad for Labour, not good enough for the Conservatives.ToryJim said:
That looks like a classic Euro period poll.TheScreamingEagles said:IPSOS MORI OUT
abour is down three points since April to 34 per cent. This equals its lowest share since June 2010 when the defeated party was leaderless after the resignation of Gordon Brown.
However, Mr Miliband’s party is still three points ahead of the Conservatives, on 31 per cent. It will fuel anxiety in Tory ranks that Mr Cameron is shedding support to Ukip.
Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are frozen on nine per cent. Nigel Farage’s post-debates bounce fizzled out, with his party dropping four points to 11.
Today’s big winners are the Greens, whose support has shot up from three to eight points on the back of higher exposure in the campaign period. Green leader Natalie Bennett claimed voters were disenchanted with the big parties and that the polls “chime with what I am hearing around the country”.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labours-poll-ratings-take-a-dive-as-confidence-in-uk-economy-higher-than-ever-9368495.html?origin=internalSearch
Wonder if Greens are ahead of Lib Dems in raw unweighted ?0 -
Mr Clegg and Mr Farage have both suffered a fall in their approval ratings over the month. The Lib-Dem leader fared worst, with two-thirds saying they are dissatisfied with his performance. Only 23 per cent are satisfied with him — one of his worst ratings.
Mr Farage’s numbers, which were uniquely positive last month, have declined markedly and are close to Mr Cameron’s. The Prime Minister and Mr Miliband both boast slightly better satisfaction ratings than a month ago.0 -
Great for the Greens - Also Others up at 7 - is that the SNP/PC or genuine 'Other Others' due to the increased campaign period?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)0 -
For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
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Generally everyone else including the Nats.Lennon said:
Great for the Greens - Also Others up at 7 - is that the SNP/PC or genuine 'Other Others' due to the increased campaign period?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
PS - Good luck with your campaign.0 -
I wonder which numpty advised EdM not to meet AstraZeneca? I shudder to think it might have been his own bright idea. It led to him being eviscerated in PMQ's.0
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It was his own intellectual self confidence and competence that helped him make that decision.MarqueeMark said:I wonder which numpty advised EdM not to meet AstraZeneca? I shudder to think it might have been his own bright idea. It led to him being eviscerated in PMQ's.
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Labour are going to have to think about bringing Gordon back.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
The 29% in 2010 will soon be looking more like a ceiling than a floor.
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Seeing as there is a 100% book and Stan James odds compilers tend to be on the generous side if I had to pick I'd probably take the 2/5 No...Stuart_Dickson said:IndyRef betting news.
Fantastic timing: the "Crossover" has stimulated the first move in the IndyRef market in weeks. The new best prices are:
Yes 5/2 (PP, Lad)
No 2/5 SJ (from 4/11)0 -
Weird commentary on that poll. The tories are worried about shedding support to UKIP in a poll where they remain the same and UKIP are down 4? They might more usefully worry about where the votes have gone now. Also if Labour are down 3 and UKIP 4 where did all the votes go? Even the slightly bizarre increase in the greens doesn't cover that.
Still, there is something quaint about having a poll with a Labour lead. It's like old times.0 -
TUSC did very poorly in the 2010 general election - less than 12,000 votes. This compares with Respect taking 68,000 votes in 2005 and the Socialist Alliance 55,000 votes in 2001.Lennon said:Maybe I'm being overly influenced by my hustings experience last night - but I wonder if (in the London locals particularly) the TUSC might do surprisingly well (in votes if not seats). If Labour are genuinely shedding voters due to a lack of policies - what does a left leaning pro immigration voter do? Assuming that UKIP, Tory and LD are definite no goes, and you're disenchanted by Labour, your options are basically Green or TUSC. I expect Green to take the majority of this, but a fair amount of 'Old' Labour and Union type voters will be attracted to them. Not sure what the consequence of this could be but something to consider...
Since 2010 some of the organisations who were behind TUSC have left to create another new left-of_labour grouping, the non-satirically named Left Unity Party.
I don't think TUSC will surprise anyone. However, if the left-of-Labour does decide to get its act together there is definitely a space waiting to be filled.
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Betting News.
Shadsy has priced up a large number of ultra-safe seats, mostly CON-held, where the top party is priced at 1/100, eg:
Worthing East and Shoreham
Witham
Tonbridge and Malling
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Rutland and Melton
Rushcliffe
Rayleigh and Wickford
Nottingham North
Nottingham East
Maldon
etc etc etc0 -
@nedsimons: Ipsos MORI poll says more people are optimistic that the economy will improve than at any point since 1978.
Ask not for whom the bell tolls, Ed.0 -
I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.0
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Probably thinks he's intellectually superior to the Chief Exec of AZ, and therefore meeting an inferior mind would be a pointless exercise.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was his own intellectual self confidence and competence that helped him make that decision.MarqueeMark said:I wonder which numpty advised EdM not to meet AstraZeneca? I shudder to think it might have been his own bright idea. It led to him being eviscerated in PMQ's.
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Still no rise for the tories in the poll.AveryLP said:
Labour are going to have to think about bringing Gordon back.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
The 29% in 2010 will soon be looking more like a ceiling than a floor.
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A national Green score of 8 at a GE would see them holding Brighton, winning Norwich South and maybe another. Scary.0
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Sorry if I wasn't clear - what I meant was "Others have moved from 4 to 7, so +3 . Do you have the splits to know if that is SNP/PC going from 3 to 6, or 'Other Others' going from 1 to 4"?TheScreamingEagles said:
Generally everyone else including the Nats.Lennon said:
Great for the Greens - Also Others up at 7 - is that the SNP/PC or genuine 'Other Others' due to the increased campaign period?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)0 -
People who declared the immigration from the a8 countries was less than predicted after 3 months were made to look very sillyScott_P said:
UKIP was more entertaining.TCPoliticalBetting said:On thread.
Labour's Mary Creagh is on BBC2 DP. Humourless, uninspiring performance by one of Ed's team.
"When we said ending transitional controls would mean hundreds of thousands of Bulgarian immigrants, we meant at some unspecified point in the future. Honest"0 -
Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:anotherDave said:
For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/40 -
Why do you say that?DavidL said:I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.
UKIP has led the EU Parliament polls all month. The one EU Parliament poll that put the Conservatives in the lead, was downplayed by ICM's bod on the Daily Politics yesterday.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014
(ICM bod starts 1m40s into video)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0441q49
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Is that Local or EU Votes?Stuart_Dickson said:
Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:anotherDave said:
For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/4
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@Lennon, not yet, am awaiting the full Ipsos-Mori tables to go up0
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Happened near me this
Thousands chickens escape on motorway and some hop into cars
Thousands of chickens were strewn across a motorway with hundreds making a break for freedom after the lorry carrying them crashed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howaboutthat/10830118/Thousands-chickens-escape-on-motorway-and-some-hop-into-cars.html0 -
Of course the term 'crossover' implies two lines making an X. In reality the polls are not sharp, crisp and certain lines so much as zones of wooliness with a margin of error. What we are seeing now is that the Tory fuzz is merging with and starting to pass the Labour fuzz. At some point soonish we'll see the fuzzes no longer touching or overlapping at all.0
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Alot of journalists get a particular narrative in their heads and then stick to it come hell or high water. Like a Dan Hodges cuckoo clock they are right twice a day.DavidL said:Weird commentary on that poll. The tories are worried about shedding support to UKIP in a poll where they remain the same and UKIP are down 4? They might more usefully worry about where the votes have gone now. Also if Labour are down 3 and UKIP 4 where did all the votes go? Even the slightly bizarre increase in the greens doesn't cover that.
Still, there is something quaint about having a poll with a Labour lead. It's like old times.0 -
The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :
Sep 2013 - 21.6%
Sep 2013 - 21.4%
Sep 2013 - 19.4%
Oct 2013 - 18.8%
Oct 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 18.2%
Nov 2013 - 18.4%
Nov 2013 - 18.0%
Dec 2013 - 17.0%
Dec 2013 - 16.8%
Dec 2013 - 16.4%
Jan 2014 - 14.4%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 15.2%
Feb 2014 - 15.0%
Feb 2014 - 15.5%
Feb 2014 - 15.5%
Feb 2014 - 13.7%
Feb 2014 - 13.3%
Feb 2014 - 14.2%
Mar 2014 - 14.2%
Mar 2014 - 14.5%
Mar 2014 - 14.5%
Mar 2014 - 14.7%
Mar 2014 - 13.8%
Mar 2014 - 13.0%
Mar 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.3%
Apr 2014 - 11.4%
May 2014 - 11.2%
May 2014 - 11.2%0 -
Tories are baked with self-raising floor.Tykejohnno said:
Still no rise for the tories in the poll.AveryLP said:
Labour are going to have to think about bringing Gordon back.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
The 29% in 2010 will soon be looking more like a ceiling than a floor.
Just sit back and watch.
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I put a bet on with PP for the LDs to be under 4.5 MEP seats. I wouldn't be confident enough to bet on Greens vs LDs.Stuart_Dickson said:
Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:anotherDave said:
For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/4
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Euros.Lennon said:
Is that Local or EU Votes?Stuart_Dickson said:
Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:anotherDave said:
For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/40 -
I was wondering when or whether the Green vote would increase. Maybe some unhappy Labourites will jump ship over the coming months and bring some post-Euro momentum to the Greens0
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I remember the year the Greens got 14% in the Euros. It could happen again one day. Perhaps even soon.anotherDave said:
I put a bet on with PP for the LDs to be under 4.5 MEP seats. I wouldn't be confident enough to bet on Greens vs LDs.Stuart_Dickson said:
Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:anotherDave said:
For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/4
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Mori is another bad poll --- for both big parties.
Greens looking very squeezable. Is that where the Lab vote has gone???
Green Reds anyone? Threader???0 -
You right sam,and I think people like scott who post the crap on immigration proberly lives in a low immigration area,proberly Scotland,am I right ;-)isam said:
People who declared the immigration from the a8 countries was less than predicted after 3 months were made to look very sillyScott_P said:
UKIP was more entertaining.TCPoliticalBetting said:On thread.
Labour's Mary Creagh is on BBC2 DP. Humourless, uninspiring performance by one of Ed's team.
"When we said ending transitional controls would mean hundreds of thousands of Bulgarian immigrants, we meant at some unspecified point in the future. Honest"
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Because the UKIP bubble is at least deflating slightly. Down 4 at their level of support is quite a lot and the ratings for Nige are sliding as well.anotherDave said:
Why do you say that?DavidL said:I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.
UKIP has led the EU Parliament polls all month. The one EU Parliament poll that put the Conservatives in the lead, was downplayed by ICM's bod on the Daily Politics yesterday.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014
(ICM bod starts 1m40s into video)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/(programmes/b0441q49
Given that Labour voters can be counted on not to vote in the Euros (they never have really) unless there is also a local election to turn out for a relative decline in UKIP support makes it more likely that the tories (who in many cases will vote for almost anything) will pip UKIP.
I am not saying it is the most likely outcome yet. Just that 25/1 was a fabulous price and it was there for the grabbing if only their websites didn't think I was in the US.
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Perhaps they belong to Ed and are desperate to come home to roostTheScreamingEagles said:Happened near me this
Thousands chickens escape on motorway and some hop into cars
Thousands of chickens were strewn across a motorway with hundreds making a break for freedom after the lorry carrying them crashed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howaboutthat/10830118/Thousands-chickens-escape-on-motorway-and-some-hop-into-cars.html
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You know how for weeks the commentary has been that the closer you get to the Euros the more the Westminster VI gets distorted by them?
Now that this has once again happened its funny how the commentary is that there is absolutely no distortion because the result has gone back the way PB Tories want it to be - despite no real upswing for the Blues.
But no matter. The European parliament elections on GE day next year will doubtless replicate these polls.....0 -
IPSOS has UKIP down 4.DavidL said:
Because the UKIP bubble is at least deflating slightly. Down 4 at their level of support is quite a lot and the ratings for Nige are sliding as well.anotherDave said:
Why do you say that?DavidL said:I am really disappointed that I was not able to get on the tories at 25/1 for most votes in the Euros. This poll makes that seem increasingly likely.
UKIP has led the EU Parliament polls all month. The one EU Parliament poll that put the Conservatives in the lead, was downplayed by ICM's bod on the Daily Politics yesterday.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014
(ICM bod starts 1m40s into video)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/(programmes/b0441q49
Given that Labour voters can be counted on not to vote in the Euros (they never have really) unless there is also a local election to turn out for a relative decline in UKIP support makes it more likely that the tories (who in many cases will vote for almost anything) will pip UKIP.
I am not saying it is the most likely outcome yet. Just that 25/1 was a fabulous price and it was there for the grabbing if only their websites didn't think I was in the US.
ICM has UKIP at their 2014 high. Populus has UKIP at their all time high. Opinium/Survation/YouGov all have UKIP at the upper end of their range.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
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I note @Tyke has been unimpressed since the start of Labour's collapse.Stuart_Dickson said:
I remember the year the Greens got 14% in the Euros. It could happen again one day. Perhaps even soon.anotherDave said:
I put a bet on with PP for the LDs to be under 4.5 MEP seats. I wouldn't be confident enough to bet on Greens vs LDs.Stuart_Dickson said:
Shadsy has a GB Vote Share Match Bet:anotherDave said:
For the Greens, that is astonishing. The local/EUP results are going to be interesting! :-)TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos-Mori figures
Lab 34 (-3) Con 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc), UKIP 11 (-4) Greens 8 (+5)
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/4
Because that Tories are not benefitting.
Hmm.0 -
O/T
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27381656
I am not saying the idea is without merit....but it kind of reminds me of....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_2lGkEU4Xs0 -
@RichardNabavi
Have they? Bold predication...0
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