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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    OllyT said:


    I think that's correct - he appears to me to be saying that any investigation that ends in acquittal should never have taken place. He comes across as a right little twerp to be honest.
    I don't think Carole could ever admit she was wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    FF43 said:

    Plus three years for ratification. So we will be looking at provisional implementation in 2029. If it happens at all. What will we be doing in the meantime?
    WTO terms, though as we are already much closer aligned to the EU than Canada was it should not take that long to negotiate and implement
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    HYUFD said:

    The LDs were up 4% on 2017 in 2019, Labour down 8%.

    Boris won more than enough working class Labour Leave voters to make up for middle class Remainers lost to the LDs (with Labour losing a few to the Brexit Party too).

    Working class Leave voters will still prefer Boris to Starmer, where Starmer might appeal is middle class Remain voters who hated Corbyn
    I think you are making a lot of assumptions about working class leave voters there. There is a good chance many of those depressed towns will look even worse by 2024 not better. Nobody really knows how they are going to react to that politically and many may just stay at home and say f**k the lot of you.

    Most of those Tory leave seat gains were won with small majorities. I can easily see most of them going back the other way. They are no where near in the bag for the Tories at future elections.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080





  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Mark, yeah, heard that from one person already.

    Mr. Jonathan, it coincidentally hit Wuhan incredibly hard before anybody else noticed it existed, and the Chinese covered it up, but it started somewhere else?

    Je suis not convinced.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    HYUFD said:

    WTO terms, though as we are already much closer aligned to the EU than Canada was it should not take that long to negotiate and implement
    What matters is the destination, not the starting point. If the UK commits to dynamically aligning with the EU indefinitely, it won't take long. Otherwise it will.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Barnesian said:






    A graph with a scale 1,10,100, 1000, 10,000, 100,000, 1million.

    Europe winning here!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,353
    Not a conga but still quite classy nevertheless.

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1259081611729084416?s=20
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Jonathan said:

    Don’t be daft. But it’s food for thought. The January Wuhan outbreak is what ties it to China. If it was cropping up around the world before that then it is at least possible it started elsewhere.

    I don’t buy it, but it’s an interesting question.

    It is now admitted to be in Wuhan by at least November. Clearly earlier - the CIA was preparing its report on WTF is happening in Wuhan by then. So maybe weeks before that. With a large proportion showing no symptoms, it is not at all beyond the bounds of possibility that people were on planes all over the place before anyone was aware there was any issue. And the US and UK for students and Italy for its "Made in Italy" badge factories for the Chinese markets would make sense as early hotspots.

    The question arises - even though nobody was looking, how did significant numbers of cases outside China not get picked up?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    Not a conga but still quite classy nevertheless.

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1259081611729084416?s=20

    It means nothing without a twat running around in a cardboard Gustav.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    If all else fails, making these will have to be my next business venture.

    https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1259083009220907008?s=21

    I may have to work on the marketing though ....... :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    FF43 said:

    What matters is the destination, not the starting point. If the UK commits to dynamically aligning with the EU indefinitely, it won't take long. Otherwise it will.
    "If the UK commits to dynamically aligning with the EU indefinitely"

    It isn't going to. Select a new start point.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Cyclefree said:

    If all else fails, making these will have to be my next business venture.

    https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1259083009220907008?s=21

    I may have to work on the marketing though ....... :)

    That is already very much the Devon look! We've been sporting similar home-made gear for weeks.

    It's going to make identity parades fun...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Mark, coinciding with the flu season, presumably?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Jonathan said:

    He’s more a younger Smith than Blair. That’s no bad thing given the state of the world and the party. Success will come from the team he forms around him.
    Jonathan said:

    He’s more a younger Smith than Blair. That’s no bad thing given the state of the world and the party. Success will come from the team he forms around him.
    Starmer is actually two years older than John Smith at the time of his death in 1994.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited May 2020

    Toby Young believes that his free speech is being infringed if he can't express his views without others also acting on their consequent view of him. Of course he believes he's being oppressed if he can't do as he pleases and hang the consequences.
    I am angrier at Young's article in the telegraph today than I think I have been at any article in many years. It is a long time since I openly swore whilst reading an article. Young needs to grow up and stop thinking every Government act is one step away from fascism.

    He has just managed to insult everyone of those men and women who died fighting to protect his right to whine and whinge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited May 2020
    Swedish top egg-head doubling down on their approach. Basically well we now building a level of community immunity, ~20% have had it, other Nordic countries more like 1-2%. And long term only widespread community immunity will keep spread down to manageable levels, as no vaccine for a long time. Care homes is where the big mistake was made.

    Not sold on idea of contact tracing, doesn't think it is really workable, due to the nature of Coronarvius versus say measles.

    Doesn't recommend masks, as masks science not good. Better to just have a policy of if you ill a bit sick, stay home. Where as if you tell people to use masks, they more likely to go out anyway.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8J9CvgB1AE
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    "If the UK commits to dynamically aligning with the EU indefinitely"

    It isn't going to. Select a new start point.
    The UK won't accept it now, agreed. I think there is a very high chance of there being no effective deal agreed by end 2020 and no transition period either. It won't be the end of the matter however and the UK is likely to be in a major crisis at that point centred on Northern Ireland. In the medium term I think it pretty likely the UK will in practice accept dynamic alignment just to put an end to the whole thing. The unspoken deal is that we won't attempt to rejoin the EU but we will do what they say anyway. Any thinking person would see that as the worst of both worlds, but there we go.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Had a look at this: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    The Tories are currently on 365 seats, Labour 202, Lib Dems 11.

    On a 5.5% swing in 2024, Labour would make 61 gains, 56 of which would be Tory seats, putting the Tories on 309. Labour would be on 263.

    5 of the 61 gains are SNP seats, so likely Labour won't take those. But really that's net negative for Labour since the SNP would presumably support them.

    If the SNP therefore hold around 40 seats, that is Labour + SNP = 303. Lib Dems hold 11 say and that's 314.

    Green MP is one more.

    SDLP is two more.

    So that's Labour alliance thingy on 317, Tories + DUP on 316.

    Imagine how buggered a Parliament that would be!

    Why would the DUP support the Tories now that Corbyn has ceased to be Labour leader?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    justin124 said:

    Why would the DUP support the Tories now that Corbyn has ceased to be Labour leader?
    Because they are a right-wing party.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    It is now admitted to be in Wuhan by at least November. Clearly earlier - the CIA was preparing its report on WTF is happening in Wuhan by then. So maybe weeks before that. With a large proportion showing no symptoms, it is not at all beyond the bounds of possibility that people were on planes all over the place before anyone was aware there was any issue. And the US and UK for students and Italy for its "Made in Italy" badge factories for the Chinese markets would make sense as early hotspots.

    The question arises - even though nobody was looking, how did significant numbers of cases outside China not get picked up?
    Not really. The Taiwanese knew it was in Wuhan in late December and told the WHO that it was displaying human to human transmission. They acted on their own information.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    RobD said:


    Because they are a right-wing party.
    But the Conservative and Unionist Party put a border down the Irish Sea.

    The DUP will never forgive or forget that betrayal.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,353
    Dura_Ace said:

    It means nothing without a twat running around in a cardboard Gustav.
    The Gs were only a bawhair from being made of cardboard by 1945.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited May 2020
    Swedish egghead - Very little evidence that children spread it easily to adults. In Nordic countries, in schools spread has been teacher to teacher, not pupils to teachers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    On topic, superb piece David.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    But the Conservative and Unionist Party put a border down the Irish Sea.

    The DUP will never forgive or forget that betrayal.

    signed up member are you ?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    But the Conservative and Unionist Party put a border down the Irish Sea.

    The DUP will never forgive or forget that betrayal.

    Besides Labour would presumably offer them a few £Billion.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Yep. For spanish flu. iirc there were three waves, before it burnt out, the second was the most brutal.
    Somemone here in Spain has predicted 2 further waves and no real recovery before 2022
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited May 2020
    Swedish egghead - ours is a workable long term strategy. Lockdown isn't feasible. Working vaccine for so far in the future, need a sustainable strategy to be maintained over the course of years.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222

    But the Conservative and Unionist Party put a border down the Irish Sea.

    The DUP will never forgive or forget that betrayal.

    Did Boris intend betraying the DUP over the Irish Sea border or did he just not understand the complexities of his own so-called oven-ready deal? That has never been clear.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited May 2020
    There are some Leave seats that Labour lost because of vote splitting to other parties other than the Tories.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Cyclefree said:

    If all else fails, making these will have to be my next business venture.

    https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1259083009220907008?s=21

    I may have to work on the marketing though ....... :)

    Can you provide them in Labour Red, Tory Blue, LibDem Yellow and Green Green?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I'm not advocating supporting Independence, my point is that trying to actively try to win seats in Scotland seems like a waste of resources. They can repeat publicly the views they are pro-Unionism, etc. I just think whether they lose in Scotland or not is really irrelevant at this point.
    Starmer is much more likely to recover seats lost to the SNP - beyond the gains made in 2017.If Labour hits 40% across GB , I cannot see them failing to get circa 30% in Scotland.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    Because they are a right-wing party.
    The Ulster Unionists were more natural Tory allies. On economic policy, the DUP is far from being right-wing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    signed up member are you ?
    Of the DUP? No, unless they start standing candidates in Great Britain.

    I think they’d do really well in parts of Scotland.

    I might join the Orange Order, I’m coming to the conclusion to that orange really is my colour, fashion wise.
  • For Toby Young, free speech means the right to speak without being challenged.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Swedish top egg-head doubling down on their approach. Basically well we now building a level of community immunity, ~20% have had it, other Nordic countries more like 1-2%. And long term only widespread community immunity will keep spread down to manageable levels, as no vaccine for a long time. Care homes is where the big mistake was made.

    Not sold on idea of contact tracing, doesn't think it is really workable, due to the nature of Coronarvius versus say measles.

    Doesn't recommend masks, as masks science not good. Better to just have a policy of if you ill a bit sick, stay home. Where as if you tell people to use masks, they more likely to go out anyway.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8J9CvgB1AE

    At 9 minits 20 seconds in he quotes 25% of the population as now immune, I has thought that was the finger for Stockholm only, but maybe its nationally.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    Did Boris intend betraying the DUP over the Irish Sea border or did he just not understand the complexities of his own so-called oven-ready deal? That has never been clear.
    He betrayed them like he regularly betrayed his wife.

    I mean he even went to a DUP conference and said no Brit PM could ever countenance putting a border down the Irish Sea.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222
    HMG is announcing lots more PPE which is good news although the references to government support through testing and regulatory phases mean there is still an element of jam tomorrow. Still, two cheers for Lord Deighton (insert reference to pb calls for a minister of production PPE Tsar here) .
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-more-items-of-ppe-for-frontline-staff-from-new-business-partnerships
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    Nasty.

    Still she’ll always be Lady Whiteadder to me.

    I mean if I can still enjoy listening to The Smiths despite knowing Morrissey is a cock end...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    No more than I would expect from her. She is a genuinely nasty piece of work.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    Jonathan said:

    If it started in October, maybe it didn’t start in China.
    Perhaps it started in a Greggs or a Weatherspoons.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited May 2020

    Of the DUP? No, unless they start standing candidates in Great Britain.

    I think they’d do really well in parts of Scotland.

    I might join the Orange Order, I’m coming to the conclusion to that orange really is my colour, fashion wise.
    Already do, sort of - [edit: OK, exaggerating a bit, but it's related]

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15270068.orange-order-elected-to-councils-as-labour-and-tory-members/

    Which is interesting in view of this ...
    justin124 said:

    The Ulster Unionists were more natural Tory allies. On economic policy, the DUP is far from being right-wing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    kinabalu said:

    Perhaps it started in a Greggs or a Weatherspoons.
    It was when a vegan sausage roll came into contact with a steak bake.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    But the Conservative and Unionist Party put a border down the Irish Sea.

    The DUP will never forgive or forget that betrayal.

    I agree, the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, the SDLP, the Greens, the Alliance and even now the DUP would all prefer a Starmer led Government and the whole UK back in the single market than a Boris led Government with GB on WTO terms and a border in the Irish Sea (though Boris will try and avoid checks in GB on goods from NI).

    If Boris wants to stay PM he will need to win another Tory majority at the next general election
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Nasty.

    Still she’ll always be Lady Whiteadder to me.

    I mean if I can still enjoy listening to The Smiths despite knowing Morrissey is a cock end...
    I think I do draw the line at wishing people dead.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Swedish egghead - ours is a workable long term strategy. Lockdown isn't feasible. Working vaccine for so far in the future, need a sustainable strategy to be maintained over the course of years.

    IF they are right, I really fear for our media class. They will have a mental breakdown in trying to come to terms with the horrible reality of the situation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    HMG is announcing lots more PPE which is good news although the references to government support through testing and regulatory phases mean there is still an element of jam tomorrow. Still, two cheers for Lord Deighton (insert reference to pb calls for a minister of production PPE Tsar here) .
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-more-items-of-ppe-for-frontline-staff-from-new-business-partnerships

    Given how absent PPE has been from the headlines in the last week or so I get the impression this area is now a bit more under control.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Anyone know of a AAA bond with a better than 10% return? Well, another one than the Dem VP market.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited May 2020
    RobD said:

    Given how absent PPE has been from the headlines in the last week or so I get the impression this area is now a bit more under control.
    Yes and no.

    Fewer cases/deaths means less urgency for PPE.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    Can you provide them in Labour Red, Tory Blue, LibDem Yellow and Green Green?
    https://twitter.com/Lloyd_Cole/status/1257723723739738118
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    Peter Hitchens has become an expert in stochastic modelling by looking up the word stochastic in the dictionary.

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1258679760902934528
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    It was when a vegan sausage roll came into contact with a steak bake.
    We all know it started when someone was eating a Hawaiian pizza whilst watching Die Hard in the run up to Christmas.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Two of the most unsuccessful countries in Europe argue about who has the better CV19 approach

    https://twitter.com/ambkcsingh/status/1259013289238880257
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Peter Hitchens has become an expert in stochastic modelling by looking up the word stochastic in the dictionary.

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1258679760902934528

    Doesn't it have a rather specific meaning in terms of statistics?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    HYUFD said:

    WTO terms, though as we are already much closer aligned to the EU than Canada was it should not take that long to negotiate and implement
    You don’t go Frictionless to WTO to FTA. That would be ludicrous. You go Frictionless to FTA. And it takes as long as it takes.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222
    kinabalu said:

    Perhaps it started in a Greggs or a Weatherspoons.
    That would explain why Greggs and Wetherspoons are still shut. You could be on to something.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,353

    It was when a vegan sausage roll came into contact with a steak bake.
    Only a teensy bit more meat in the steak bake.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    kinabalu said:

    You don’t go Frictionless to WTO to FTA. That would be ludicrous. You go Frictionless to FTA. And it takes as long as it takes.
    In that case the EU will just string along the transition period indefinitely with ultimately an EEA in all but name FTA, if we truly want a Canada style FTA we have to be prepared to go to WTO and Boris is
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    kinabalu said:

    You don’t go Frictionless to WTO to FTA. That would be ludicrous. You go Frictionless to FTA. And it takes as long as it takes.
    The government intends to be ludicrous.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    FF43 said:

    Two of the most unsuccessful countries in Europe argue about who has the better CV19 approach

    https://twitter.com/ambkcsingh/status/1259013289238880257

    Given they got to the same point with different approaches (I'd argue they aren't actually all that different in practice) perhaps suggests that outcomes depend on the circumstances of a particular country? Madness, I know.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited May 2020

    I think I do draw the line at wishing people dead.
    Normally I do as well but the episode Beer of Blackadder II really is one I loved and then became really relevant to me when one of my mother's friend slapped me around the face and called me a wicked child* when she learned I wasn't going to have an arranged marriage and was fornicating outside the faith. Ever since I've always called her Lady Whiteadder.

    *Well she didn't call me wicked child, she called me a dahla and a haramzaada which are really strong words in Punjabi.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,353
    FF43 said:

    Two of the most unsuccessful countries in Europe argue about who has the better CV19 approach

    https://twitter.com/ambkcsingh/status/1259013289238880257

    It's my comb.

    Nej, it's mine!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    tlg86 said:

    IF they are right, I really fear for our media class. They will have a mental breakdown in trying to come to terms with the horrible reality of the situation.
    If they are right it would unfortunately still not have been a course we could have followed. They have had death rates probably 5 times of what they would have had with lockdown and there is no way that the Government would have survived 150,000+ deaths. We would simply have ended up in lockdown much later but with many more dead.

    I really really hope the Swedes are right that this was the best way for their country. But it needs a small population and the willingness to have significant 'necessary' deaths to make it work as an experiment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    RobD said:

    Doesn't it have a rather specific meaning in terms of statistics?
    Also highlighted in this piece:
    https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-convincing-is-imperial-colleges-covid-19-model/

    But the author says 'educated guess'.

    wiki says:

    "The word stochastic in English was originally used as an adjective with the definition "pertaining to conjecturing" , and stemming from a Greek word meaning "to aim at a mark, guess", and the Oxford English Dictionary gives the year 1662 as its earliest occurrence"
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    edited May 2020

    Yep. For spanish flu. iirc there were three waves, before it burnt out, the second was the most brutal.
    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    ONline OED:

    stochastic
    "ADJECTIVE
    technical
    Having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analysed statistically but may not be predicted precisely."
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222

    Only a teensy bit more meat in the steak bake.
    Greggs vegan sausage roll is a thing of beauty, and better than the actual sausage sausage roll. That was the verdict of colleagues when it was trialled round here.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    Peter Hitchens has become an expert in stochastic modelling by looking up the word stochastic in the dictionary.

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1258679760902934528

    Blimey, is he really is that dense?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    ONline OED:

    stochastic
    "ADJECTIVE
    technical
    Having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analysed statistically but may not be predicted precisely."

    I suppose like tossing a coin? You can't predict each one precisely, but you can measure the probability distribution. Seems like they are trying to say that using this word somehow discredits this entire field of statistics?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222

    Also highlighted in this piece:
    https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-convincing-is-imperial-colleges-covid-19-model/

    But the author says 'educated guess'.

    wiki says:

    "The word stochastic in English was originally used as an adjective with the definition "pertaining to conjecturing" , and stemming from a Greek word meaning "to aim at a mark, guess", and the Oxford English Dictionary gives the year 1662 as its earliest occurrence"
    Stochasticgate is reminiscent of idiots creaming themselves over the phrase "mathematical trick" in the UEA climate emails.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    edited May 2020
    RobD said:

    Doesn't it have a rather specific meaning in terms of statistics?
    Yes - one of the latest things on social media is a criticism of the Imperial College modelling by someone who presents herself as an expert in "coding" but who apparently doesn't have much of a clue about mathematical modelling. To the extent that if she understands the concept of Monte Carlo modelling she doesn't show any sign of it.

    Of course this has been eagerly seized on by the crazies who say the lockdown has all been for nothing. As if it wasn't possible to estimate on the back of an envelope how many people were likely to die from a disease with an infection fatality rate of 0.5-1% and a basic reproduction number of 2-3, to which there is no known immunity in the population, if it were allowed to propagate unhindered.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2020
    BigRich said:


    At 9 minits 20 seconds in he quotes 25% of the population as now immune, I has thought that was the finger for Stockholm only, but maybe its nationally.

    They quoted 25% for Stockholm a little while back:
    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/28/coronavirus-covid-19-sweden-anders-tegnell-herd-immunity/3031536001/

    New York City found pretty much an identical figure via antibody tests, although the rest of the state was at ~4%.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    tlg86 said:

    IF they are right, I really fear for our media class. They will have a mental breakdown in trying to come to terms with the horrible reality of the situation.
    It's an awful balancing act. Everyone is going to get this sooner or later, all we can do is reach herd immunity in such a way that minimises deaths without crippling the economy.

    At the moment we have gone with lockdown, which is a lowest-possible-deaths at the cost of total economic meltdown. But it won't work. Not just because it will destroy the economy, but also because lockdown cannot be maintained indefinitely. People are already breaking the rules, meeting up, etc.

    Indefinite lockdown is not an option. That means herd immunity is still the only game in town. The only question is how we get there and how many lives will be lost.

    An initial lockdown to build NHS capacity and prepare e.g. ramp up PPE production, hand sanitiser etc, was a good idea. But now lockdown has become a can kicking exercise. Nobody wants to face up to the truth. "Some of you will die" is not a vote winner. But it is the only option.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    RobD said:

    Given they got to the same point with different approaches (I'd argue they aren't actually all that different in practice) perhaps suggests that outcomes depend on the circumstances of a particular country? Madness, I know.
    and all this analysis is "so far".

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, Esher and Walton and Wokingham and Cities of London and Westminster are now more likely to be lost by the Tories to the LDs than Great Grimsby or Bishop Auckland or Harlow are to be lost to Labour.

    Blair never won the former unlike the latter yet the latter have bigger Tory majorities now than the former
    In reality , I suspect that is unlikely. Voters who swung massively against Labour in Grimsby and Bishop Auckland over a two and a half year period might swing back in 2024 on a similar scale post-Corbyn with Brexit no longer being an issue to many.Labour is also likely to regain second place in seats such as Cities of London & Westminster and Finchley.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Chris said:

    Yes - one of the latest things on social media is a criticism of the Imperial College modelling by someone who presents herself as an expert in "coding" but who apparently doesn't have much of a clue about mathematical modelling. To the extent that if she understands the concept of Monte Carlo modelling she doesn't show any sign of it.

    Of course this has been eagerly seized on by the crazies who say the lockdown has all been for nothing. As if it wasn't possible to estimate on the back of an envelope how many people were likely to die from a disease with an infection fatality rate of 0.5-1% and a basic reproduction number of 2-3, to which there is no known immunity in the population.
    Monte carlo should be a pretty basic concept for someone critiquing mathematical models.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    HMG is announcing lots more PPE which is good news although the references to government support through testing and regulatory phases mean there is still an element of jam tomorrow. Still, two cheers for Lord Deighton (insert reference to pb calls for a minister of production PPE Tsar here) .
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-more-items-of-ppe-for-frontline-staff-from-new-business-partnerships

    All of that is undoubtedly good news, the investigation needs to look into why Lord Deighton wasn't appointed in March so that these initiatives would be ready for the beginning of April rather than in April for May.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550

    Blimey, is he really is that dense?
    Journalists & maths don't mix do they....
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    edited May 2020

    Blimey, is he really is that dense?
    yeah, jesus christ, that's witless.

    Stochastic has a specific technical meaning in physical science/numerical methods.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    Journalists & maths don't mix do they....
    They don't, like pineapple on pizza.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,568
    On topic:
    This thread segues very well with Southams Starmer thread and the BTL discussion of Isam of wondering what c the centre left actually stands for.

    They could do worse than start with this Herdson thread and a few similar he has done in the past. So much of today's politics, despite Thatcher, is still predicated on now largely unspoken assumptions from the post-war era. Their unspokenness has weakened them.

    Simply starting by renewing, restating and arguing for such basic things from the ground up would be a fantastic first step.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    A graph with a scale 1,10,100, 1000, 10,000, 100,000, 1million.

    Europe winning here!
    Otherwise known as a log scale. Used all the time in science and maths.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    It was when a vegan sausage roll came into contact with a steak bake.
    That's some jump across the divide.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    If they are right it would unfortunately still not have been a course we could have followed. They have had death rates probably 5 times of what they would have had with lockdown and there is no way that the Government would have survived 150,000+ deaths. We would simply have ended up in lockdown much later but with many more dead.

    I really really hope the Swedes are right that this was the best way for their country. But it needs a small population and the willingness to have significant 'necessary' deaths to make it work as an experiment.
    And a culture that isn't social. Swedish culture lends itself to social distancing a lot more easily than ours.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    edited May 2020

    Blimey, is he really is that dense?
    He really is so dense that he can quote a dictionary definition of a scientific term without noticing that the definition he's quoting is labelled "now rare or obsolete" and dated to the 17th century.

    Perhaps if he'd looked up the dictionary definitions of "rare" and "obsolete" it would have helped.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    yeah, jesus christ, that's witless.

    Stochastic has a specific technical meaning in physical science/numerical methods.
    Like taking your car to the garage and complaining when they start using these show-off technical terms like "carburettor."

    What will happen if someone introduces the concept of Monte Carlo simulations to him?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Otherwise known as a log scale. Used all the time in science and maths.
    :D
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Quincel said:

    Anyone know of a AAA bond with a better than 10% return? Well, another one than the Dem VP market.


    Thanks, good spot! You can also lay Barack at 100 if you really want to take on the Obamas!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    justin124 said:

    In reality , I suspect that is unlikely. Voters who swung massively against Labour in Grimsby and Bishop Auckland over a two and a half year period might swing back in 2024 on a similar scale post-Corbyn with Brexit no longer being an issue to many.Labour is also likely to regain second place in seats such as Cities of London & Westminster and Finchley.
    Might swing back? Or...


    *Mansfield waves....*

    2017 Con majority - 1,057

    2019 Con majority - 16,306

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    Otherwise known as a log scale. Used all the time in science and maths.
    Also used a lot by the Lib Dems in their bar charts.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222
    edited May 2020

    yeah, jesus christ, that's witless.

    Stochastic has a specific technical meaning in physical science/numerical methods.
    Witless probably is the mot juste, you are right. I don't mind hacks not knowing what stochastic means but it really ought to have been obvious this was a technical or jargon word. Shades of Bernard and Sir Humphrey trying to explain meta-dioxin by parsing meta as a Latin or Greek term rather than a chemical one.
  • It is a gorgeous view, south Devon, looking out towards the coast west of Dartmouth. We can glimpse the sea - was more than that, but a plantation of conifers on the horizon has pretty much done for the view.

    You have to go upstairs for the view, Peter.....guest bedroom. Dwarf lilac in the foreground. Sadly, CV-19 means no guests getting the benefit:


    Thanks for the further superb view from your home MM ... I think I can well understand why you seldom manage to find the time to attend NFFC's games!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    Spare a thought for Googlers at this time...no more free food, coffee, gym and worse of all having to do their own washing!

    https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-cannot-expense-food-and-other-perks-2020-5
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Stochasticgate is reminiscent of idiots creaming themselves over the phrase "mathematical trick" in the UEA climate emails.
    No, that was deliberately misleading. It is perfectly possible to believe in and be concerned about climate change, while also recognising that some of its proponents are, in your own word, idiots. You are not obliged to defend the indefensible.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    Of the DUP? No, unless they start standing candidates in Great Britain.

    I think they’d do really well in parts of Scotland.

    I might join the Orange Order, I’m coming to the conclusion to that orange really is my colour, fashion wise.
    Don't forget the bowler hat and sash.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680

    There are some Leave seats that Labour lost because of vote splitting to other parties other than the Tories.

    Did that not cut both ways?

    IIRC there were 60 'Remain Alliance' seats, though that may have been on the same other planet as Jo Swinson being PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390

    If they are right it would unfortunately still not have been a course we could have followed. They have had death rates probably 5 times of what they would have had with lockdown and there is no way that the Government would have survived 150,000+ deaths. We would simply have ended up in lockdown much later but with many more dead.

    I really really hope the Swedes are right that this was the best way for their country. But it needs a small population and the willingness to have significant 'necessary' deaths to make it work as an experiment.
    I would have taken those terms.
This discussion has been closed.