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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls aren’t moving but Labour shouldn’t be too concerned

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  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    kinabalu said:

    55,000 is the best estimate atm.

    It''s going to kill a lot more than 55k...we are in wave one with perhaps 5-10% infected.....

    We are going be living with this virus for a long time sadly....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    alterego said:

    That's alright then. A Liberal viewpoint. Didn't Hitler even like other people's children and his dog?
    He rather enjoyed the great outdoors too
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    I mistrust the stats not your reporting of them.
    Why?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,622
    justin124 said:

    So it was a bit like Kensington in 2019 with tactical voters confusing themselves and handing seats to the Tories.
    Yeah, the Evening Standard published stuff indicating which seats the LDs were in with a shout, based on Cleggasm polling that wasn't sustained until polling day.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Foxy said:

    He rather enjoyed the great outdoors too
    Did he have an allotment too? You'll be telling me next he photographed manhole covers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    eadric said:

    No, they’re not. I think for that reason we just have to take this ‘on the chin’. Let the virus rip. Let many old and enormously fat people die. We will endure
    But second-hand mobility scooter prices will crash.....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,622
    I'm able to stay at home because other people are going out to work. I want them to be as safe as possible and not be risking their lives just to deliver me my food and keep my lights on.

    I'm privileged to be able to lockdown. I'm certainly not going to abuse that privilege.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    eadric said:

    Agreed. So we just suck it up and deal with a dimensional increase in risk in our lives.

    We’ve done it for war and terrorism, we can do it for corona

    The alternative of semi permanent lockdown is far far worse. A shrinkage in global GDP of, say, 10%, will kill tens of millions, and fuel intense conflict.
    As long as the health service doesn't collapse...I agree with you...

    And the Tories, for all their catastrophic handling of this pandemic, have proved they can keep the NHS afloat...but they need to ensure now that the NHS returns to business as usual and Covid patients are treated separately in the numbers that come in.......


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,091
    alterego said:

    My wife and I, watching this, both said "2 metres?" and I bet that 90%+ of the national audience said something similar with a few expletives thrown in. The BBC is peopled with prats. Disgraceful.
    With respect,how do you know?

    Camera lens and perspectives can be deceptive.

    That could easily be (and very probably is) various household groups with kids standing 2m apart - all the more so because they knew they'd be on national TV.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,664
    WEDNESDAY: SKS shish-kebabs Bozza at PMQs. Panic Waffle Blah we're listing lockdown on Sunday improv. Friendly hacks briefed to write pro-Boris Huzzah headlines like LOCKDOWN LIBERATION
    THURSDAY: Tory press has a massive orgasm celebrating Johnson about to Announce The End of Lockdown. WE'RE GOING TO THE PUB says the Sun. PM update - pants shat in Downing Street as scientists point out how dead we all are
    FRIDAY: Wonderful headlines for Bozza as people fuck the lockdown at direct invitation of Churchill 2020 and have big street parties with a special Covid guest
    SATURDAY: AS YOU WERE headlines as the press realise they have been sold a pup by number 10
    SUNDAY: Scripted Waffle Blah No Change to Lockdown
    MONDAY: WTF?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    alterego said:

    Did he have an allotment too? You'll be telling me next he photographed manhole covers.
    I'll tell you who else liked visiting Eastern Europe...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,091
    eadric said:

    Agreed. So we just suck it up and deal with a dimensional increase in risk in our lives.

    We’ve done it for war and terrorism, we can do it for corona

    The alternative of semi permanent lockdown is far far worse. A shrinkage in global GDP of, say, 10%, will kill tens of millions, and fuel intense conflict.
    Hang on... I agree but...

    Who are you and how did you hack Eadrics account?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    eadric said:

    Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved

    It has served a purpose to stop the NHS collapsing...and given us a bit of headspace on how to manage this thing.....

    Probably big Covid hospitals like the Nightingales are the way now for the foreseeable once we get over this first wave....

    The Bank of England bounce back predictions for 2021 of 15% is nonsense.....the UK is going to b 25% impacted by this virus..and that is a good prediction....
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited May 2020
    eadric said:

    Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved

    But it was the ones whose parents rebelled and brought them back that died.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,091
    I see some proper strawmanning going on with my posts earlier..

    I was not and am *not* arguing for "let rip". I am arguing for an end to the lockdown, and a Swedish approach.

    I would accept the extra Covid-19 deaths.

    These wouldn't be north of half a million in such a scenario, which is where I could my extra 40k from as a "for instance" flag.

    I think the continued lockdown isn't working and is doing more harm than good.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    eadric said:

    Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved

    Some were evacuated from London to the Welsh countryside, I believe...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,091
    eadric said:

    I’ve been strident about the threat of this bug, but I have ALWAYS been ambivalent about our reaction. From about mid February, when the rest of you (*cough*) were telling me to shut up about corona so you could talk about log fire regulations, I was speculating that a wise reaction might be just: accept it. Roll with it. Sweden,

    I didn’t know the right answer then and I don’t know now, but I am edging towards the Swedish approach, given that we can’t do South Korea now (and maybe never could)
    I was warning about Coronavirus in late January and stocked up my house with supplies then, but whatever. I never went in for the extreme bedwetting.

    You've changed your mind. Fair enough.

    Good to see.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    The Opposition had blocked it three times!
    Yes when an election meant Hard Brexit by default during the campaign. Once the extension was granted that excuse vanished and you didn't have a leg to cower behind anymore.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    tyson said:

    As long as the health service doesn't collapse...I agree with you...

    And the Tories, for all their catastrophic handling of this pandemic, have proved they can keep the NHS afloat...but they need to ensure now that the NHS returns to business as usual and Covid patients are treated separately in the numbers that come in.......


    Priorities are difficult to get right without the blessing of hindsight
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Think I've found peak lockdown, watching a DnD twitch stream with Ed Gamble and Sue Perkins.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,169

    Hang on... I agree but...

    Who are you and how did you hack Eadrics account?
    Lol!

    Surely @eadric has been telling us since February that we are over-reacting to CV-19 and just need to take it on the chin, no need to panic and all that?

    Surely?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,091
    Breaking (sun): garden centres to reopen from Wednesday and unlimited exercise outside.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    eadric said:

    Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved

    I thought there was no firmer supporter of the lockdown than you.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886

    Judging by the number of "fuck the virus" VE parties happening today, we can expect another spike in a couple of weeks...

    Much drama in the Village Matters FB page round my way. Wife and I glanced up one of the vast drives of Posho Road to see an amazing sight of 30-40 of the wellest heeled residents tucking into a huge buffet with plenty of accompanying vino and braying. Kids running riot.
    Got home to witness a furious online row about it.
    Ending with the line Which one of you bastards phoned the filth?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,091

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    rpjs said:

    But it was the ones whose parents rebelled and brought them back that died.
    My mother was evacuated from Manchester to a farm in the High Peak. After walking miles in the snow to school in the winter of 1939-40, my grandfather figured that she was safer in suburban Manchester.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,169
    Foxy said:

    Some were evacuated from London to the Welsh countryside, I believe...
    ... and then went back to London. And they say history never repeats itself.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,392

    Breaking (sun): garden centres to reopen from Wednesday and unlimited exercise outside.

    Presumably with social distancing so I can walk the streets of East London as long as I'm six feet from anyone else - a bit like human dodgems.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,169
    eadric said:

    I hope they were evacuated to Tintern Abbey and environs. I did a walk there today (the walk was longer than the drive!) and OMFG. I had forgotten how beautiful it is. And, of course, uniquely deserted on a gorgeously sunny holiday

    It is a sublime place and I can see why the concept of The Sublime evolved there. Just wondrous.

    For the next year or so we are going to rediscover the beauties of the British Isles and this is my first revelation. The Wye Valley around Tintern is World Class Blissful
    Tintern? I thought you were in Penarth!?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    dixiedean said:

    Much drama in the Village Matters FB page round my way. Wife and I glanced up one of the vast drives of Posho Road to see an amazing sight of 30-40 of the wellest heeled residents tucking into a huge buffet with plenty of accompanying vino and braying. Kids running riot.
    Got home to witness a furious online row about it.
    Ending with the line Which one of you bastards phoned the filth?
    Village Facebooks have fierce online battles !
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    stodge said:

    Presumably with social distancing so I can walk the streets of East London as long as I'm six feet from anyone else - a bit like human dodgems.
    Nothing's changed...so just make sure you stay the fuck away from people when you leave the house....

  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    With respect,how do you know?

    Camera lens and perspectives can be deceptive.

    That could easily be (and very probably is) various household groups with kids standing 2m apart - all the more so because they knew they'd be on national TV.
    As you will hopefully be aware, particularly being on here, betting doesn't correlate with knowledge, and I certainly wouldn't lay my bet. If this was a matter of deception then the BBC was stupid for different reasons.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,169
    This thread has been evacuated
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    WEDNESDAY: SKS shish-kebabs Bozza at PMQs. Panic Waffle Blah we're listing lockdown on Sunday improv. Friendly hacks briefed to write pro-Boris Huzzah headlines like LOCKDOWN LIBERATION
    THURSDAY: Tory press has a massive orgasm celebrating Johnson about to Announce The End of Lockdown. WE'RE GOING TO THE PUB says the Sun. PM update - pants shat in Downing Street as scientists point out how dead we all are
    FRIDAY: Wonderful headlines for Bozza as people fuck the lockdown at direct invitation of Churchill 2020 and have big street parties with a special Covid guest
    SATURDAY: AS YOU WERE headlines as the press realise they have been sold a pup by number 10
    SUNDAY: Scripted Waffle Blah No Change to Lockdown
    MONDAY: WTF?

    This post - wtf?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819


    Of course, if the rate in Malmo is as low as stated, there is no herd immunity in Sweden either...
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Foxy said:

    I'll tell you who else liked visiting Eastern Europe...
    Was it Ms Abbott's mum?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,664
    Breaking News: What we can already do we can do from Wednesday. Garden Centres? My local Morrisons has a large tent thing selling fuckloads of plants already. Letting the people swarming around that do so in a proper garden centre is a big difference because?

    As I have pointed out repeatedly - right here and now we can do unlimited exercise outside. Always have been able to do
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,091
    eadric said:

    This is so desperately poor. Why now, and not in Feb or even March?

    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1258865810686214145?s=21

    It's a good question.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    tyson said:

    It has served a purpose to stop the NHS collapsing...and given us a bit of headspace on how to manage this thing.....

    Probably big Covid hospitals like the Nightingales are the way now for the foreseeable once we get over this first wave....

    The Bank of England bounce back predictions for 2021 of 15% is nonsense.....the UK is going to b 25% impacted by this virus..and that is a good prediction....
    The expertise on here is sometimes astounding.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Foxy said:

    My mother was evacuated from Manchester to a farm in the High Peak. After walking miles in the snow to school in the winter of 1939-40, my grandfather figured that she was safer in suburban Manchester.
    My particular cross to bear is that I was born in Northamptonshire instead of London. But I cannot remember it so wtf.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    eadric said:

    This is so desperately poor. Why now, and not in Feb or even March?

    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1258865810686214145?s=21

    Do we know how many Brits were abroad back in Feb or even March?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    alterego said:

    The expertise on here is sometimes astounding.
    Well I took out a wedge from the stock market at the end of Jan....and did my mega, panic shop at the same time.....

    I wish I had been more vocal then because it seemed obvious to me then....

    Do you seriously think we are going to bounce back 15% next year?......

    A cumulative GDP 25% hit before the slow road to recovery sets in is my estimate....

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    alterego said:

    My particular cross to bear is that I was born in Northamptonshire instead of London. But I cannot remember it so wtf.

    Whistler was prepared when a snobbish society woman turned up her nose at his real place of birth in Lowell, Massachusetts: 'Whatever possessed you to be born in a place like that?'

    'The explanation is quite simple,' said Whistler. 'I wished to be near my mother.'
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Foxy said:

    Of course, if the rate in Malmo is as low as stated, there is no herd immunity in Sweden either...
    What we will see is those places that might have had 10-15% spikes, like Lombardy and New York, and possibly Stockholm...and the rest....waiting for the next wave....

    It'll take about 4 spikey waves in hotspots to get to herd immunity rates over the next 2 years or so....and even then I doubt it.....




  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Breaking News: What we can already do we can do from Wednesday. Garden Centres? My local Morrisons has a large tent thing selling fuckloads of plants already. Letting the people swarming around that do so in a proper garden centre is a big difference because?

    As I have pointed out repeatedly - right here and now we can do unlimited exercise outside. Always have been able to do


    We can enjoy the unlimited exercise by walking past the pub and dreaming...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,048

    It's a good question.
    The answer has been given many times.

    No-one was calling for it in February. It would have been seen as a massive overreaction. And it is unclear why we wouldnt then have done the same for SARS, MERS, Swine flu, Zika etc given those had similar potential to reach global pandemic levels.

    By middle of March people were calling for it, but the UK infection levels were above those of the people coming in, so it would have made virtually no difference. Govt time and energy was directed to the things that needed doing not the things people wanted that were ineffective.

    End of May seems like a good time to introduce this policy.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    dixiedean said:

    Much drama in the Village Matters FB page round my way. Wife and I glanced up one of the vast drives of Posho Road to see an amazing sight of 30-40 of the wellest heeled residents tucking into a huge buffet with plenty of accompanying vino and braying. Kids running riot.
    Got home to witness a furious online row about it.
    Ending with the line Which one of you bastards phoned the filth?
    Awful round my way as well. I ventured out and kept my distance but I saw a number of large groups (more than ten people), maybe half a dozen or so. over a couple of streets. A sound system blaring out until half ten so they were advertising their presence and you could hear it a mile away. Plenty appear to have rung the police but it's down to the council, so they'll be getting some photo and video evidence, I imagine.

    If they don't crack down now then millions are going to be staying indoors for the foreseeable future as a result whilst the ones who couldn't stick it get 'harvested'. Still, it's a sort of justice, I suppose.
This discussion has been closed.