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  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    "80% of smartphone users" by definition won't include those who aren't smartphone users.

    That's like discussing what percentage of children should be in school and saying "x% of the UK is over 18 and don't go to school".
    Well in a few weeks if they ever release the tracking app we will see who is correct won't we. I still think under 50% take up
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    Nicola's trace, test, isolate policy will be a tremendous piece of Scottish ingenuity and a great idea not like chancer Boris's evil trace, track, isolate policy that will be almost identical.
    Captain Darling : So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshall Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.
    General Melchett : Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war!
    Captain Darling : And fortunately, one of our spies...
    General Melchett : Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!

    :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    You're surely not quite that stupid.
    I was being flippant.

    Some of them are Corbynista yeswomen.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    glw said:

    Android 5.0 is when Google added BLE support to the OS. Google thinks that's enough to do contact tracing by proximity detection, and I can't see any obvious reason why centralised data collection would change that.
    Because our public sector experts think they know better than the OS developers. It's going to be another disaster and we'll be wondering why Germany are doing so much better having asked Apple and Google to actively participate in their contact tracing app.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,310
    Sandpit said:

    E65, nice...
    730i so it's not a rocketship but the difference in the fit and finish between it and a modern BMW is immense and embarrassing. The interior is particularly good.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    Pagan2 said:

    Well in a few weeks if they ever release the tracking app we will see who is correct won't we. I still think under 50% take up
    Even if it is around 40-50% that would still be a huge help for the tracking and tracing program. Obviously most effective the more people use it, but better than nothing.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,320

    Nicola's trace, test, isolate policy will be a tremendous piece of Scottish ingenuity and a great idea not like chancer Boris's evil trace, track, isolate policy that will be almost identical.
    I think the more general view (mine certainly) is that there will be a much better chance of dicks not being in charge of it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    More like UK Coronavirus app never arrives in Apple's Appstore.
    Apple prevents UK government releasing us from lockdown

    They ain’t going to do that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    https://twitter.com/HSJnews/status/1257265605964713986

    No Chinese funnel then. Betting the house on contact tracing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    You're surely not quite that stupid.
    That does seem to be the make up of this group and alarm bells should be ringing when even Sky were expressing doubt about allowing them air time
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,512
    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/HSJnews/status/1257265605964713986

    No Chinese funnel then. Betting the house on contact tracing.

    Good that they are keeping it ready though.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pagan2 said:

    Well in a few weeks if they ever release the tracking app we will see who is correct won't we. I still think under 50% take up
    Even 50% would make a massive difference. Plus the higher the take up the more likely others take it up (education and awareness will be higher) and the more effective it will be.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Endillion said:

    "Apple bravely stands up to evil Tory Government using the virus as an excuse to spy on its citizens for nefarious purposes".
    Says the headline in the Liberatarian News. Circulation @Pagan2 - and his dog
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    RobD said:

    Even if it is around 40-50% that would still be a huge help for the tracking and tracing program. Obviously most effective the more people use it, but better than nothing.
    Only if people use it properly which I also doubt. An alert comes in you have been in contact with someone who thinks they now have covid. Stuff that I am not self isolating I feel fine and I am meeting friends later will be the general attitude I think
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    Nicola's trace, test, isolate policy will be a tremendous piece of Scottish ingenuity and a great idea not like chancer Boris's evil trace, track, isolate policy that will be almost identical.
    To be fair she did say the app is being developed by the UK government and she hopes to partake in the scheme
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Charles said:

    Says the headline in the Liberatarian News. Circulation @Pagan2 - and his dog
    It's a strange sort of spying that relies upon an app people voluntarily install and can disable or uninstall at will.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    Pagan2 said:

    Only if people use it properly which I also doubt. An alert comes in you have been in contact with someone who thinks they now have covid. Stuff that I am not self isolating I feel fine and I am meeting friends later will be the general attitude I think
    Do you think they'd also go and see their frail grandma?

    I think you have an incorrect view of the population at large. Compliance with the lockdown to date demonstrates that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    Charles said:

    Apple prevents UK government releasing us from lockdown

    They ain’t going to do that.
    But it's stupid because Apple (and Google) have offered to help the government utilise some OS developer only features. We've actively declined that help in favour of an untested solution that utilises a security hole in iOS.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    MaxPB said:

    But it's stupid because Apple (and Google) have offered to help the government utilise some OS developer only features. We've actively declined that help in favour of an untested solution that utilises a security hole in iOS.
    That does seem rather dumb indeed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Charles said:

    Apple prevents UK government releasing us from lockdown

    They ain’t going to do that.
    If the UK gov app works using a 0-day exploit (a software bug that is not generally known about) of the IOS bluetooth stack, as has been reported, Apple absolutely will ban it from the App Store.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Charles said:

    Says the headline in the Liberatarian News. Circulation @Pagan2 - and his dog
    Why do people keep labelling this as a libertarian view point? I hardly ever agree with Mr Meeks and he takes the same view, Cyclefree also is of the same view and a couple of others. They aren't libertarians. Neither is it a stretch to think that tracking us won't become a more than temporary measure. Governments of all colours always push for more data on us.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,361

    Good that they are keeping it ready though.
    Not that that's a surprise. I doubt there are many people in the health service who think this is all going to blow over soon.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited May 2020
    MaxPB said:

    But it's stupid because Apple (and Google) have offered to help the government utilise some OS developer only features. We've actively declined that help in favour of an untested solution that utilises a security hole in iOS.
    I am not sure how many other government are following our approach. Germany was, but ditched it, in favour of the Apple/Goole API.

    I think France are going for a similar centralized approach to ours. Anybody else?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Question for the PB Brains Trust

    I've just started taking on freelance work in the evenings and weekends, despite the fact that I am full-time employed on PAYE.

    What's my best option?

    Simply go into the SA system and declare the additional income to HMRC or some other mechanism?

    Thanks for your views!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    It's a strange sort of spying that relies upon an app people voluntarily install and can disable or uninstall at will.
    As I pointed out to you quite a few are saying it should be mandatory
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I am not sure how many other government are following our approach. Germany was, but ditched it, in favour of the Apple/Goole API.

    I think France are going for a similar centralized approach to ours. Anybody else?
    Here's a list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_apps
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2020
    Pagan2 said:

    Why do people keep labelling this as a libertarian view point? I hardly ever agree with Mr Meeks and he takes the same view, Cyclefree also is of the same view and a couple of others. They aren't libertarians. Neither is it a stretch to think that tracking us won't become a more than temporary measure. Governments of all colours always push for more data on us.
    I've no idea. People voluntarily sharing information via voluntarily downloading a temporary app they can disable or uninstall at will is perfectly libertarian. There is no libertarian reason not to engage with the app.

    If the government wants to track us permanently they'll need to do more than get us to download an app I will uninstall whenever I want to and certainly by the end of this pandemic.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    Pagan2 said:

    So you get to Tesco's find your mobile battery is dead or you left it at home. Sorry sir you can't come in. As I pointed out only 55% of over 55's have a smart phone. When people are told they can't shop because of the three reasons above the grumbling will start and continue to grow
    Surely the
    Floater said:
    Excellent news indeed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686

    Regarding treatment protocol for Coronavirus, I am pretty sure that variations on a theme of chloroquin and zinc are the gold standard, despite widespread media hype in the other direction. I follow Dr Berg (keto diet and intermittent fasting) and he has a very methodical way of explaining the science - very much pitched at the layman. This is well worth a watch.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SZEONtCP30g

    I can only think widespread attempts to discredit this treatment are a result of the early Trump endorsement.

    Absent some very surprising randomised clinical trial results, I don't think there's any need to discredit it; there is simply no evidence that it works, and significant evidence of potentially severe side effects.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited May 2020
    Scientists without an agenda would be very wary of trying to make massive claims about crucial public policy decisions without access to the full data. It is not how peer review science works.

    Remember the Sunday Times "scoop", that claimed an academic was against government policy. His reply was, I wasn't there in that particular meeting and (most importantly), as I wasn't present, I didn't see the data / evidence presented and therefore I am unable to pass informed judgement, so I must defer to the decision made by those who did.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Floater said:

    Because no one in any other party has ever done anything like that eh Malc?]

    Tories would be world champions every year , trust you to try and excuse their constant abuses of power by justifying it by saying a few others have done some bad things. Bit like Tories murder hundreds but it is OK as that guy up the road murdered someone 10 years ago.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    edited May 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Here's a list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_apps
    Looks like we'll all be getting the Apple and Google one anyway:

    Google and Apple plan to address the take-up and persistent surveillance problems by first distributing the system through operating system updates, and later removing it in the same way once the threat has passed.[32]
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732

    Question for the PB Brains Trust

    I've just started taking on freelance work in the evenings and weekends, despite the fact that I am full-time employed on PAYE.

    What's my best option?

    Simply go into the SA system and declare the additional income to HMRC or some other mechanism?

    Thanks for your views!

    Depends how much freelance work you are doing.

    If it's going to be less than £1000 I don't believe you have to otherwise you do need to as you will need to fill in a self assessment form. https://www.freelanceuk.com/tax_matters/mistakes-freelancers-make-when-filing-self-assessment-tax-return.shtml has a decent overview.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    RobD said:

    Looks like we'll all be getting the Apple and Google one anyway:

    Google and Apple plan to address the take-up and persistent surveillance problems by first distributing the system through operating system updates, and later removing it in the same way once the threat has passed.[32]
    Are you also forced to listen to a terrible U2 album at the same time?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Charles said:

    Says the headline in the Liberatarian News. Circulation @Pagan2 - and his dog
    Possibly, but you might be underestimating the verve with which Apple fanboys tend to defend the company, even when it's obviously in the wrong.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pagan2 said:

    As I pointed out to you quite a few are saying it should be mandatory
    By quite a few do you mean HYUFD?

    And as I have said that is moronic. For one thing even if you install the app you can then uninstall it and/or disable Bluetooth. Or turn your phone off. Or turn your phone on airplane mode. Or whatever.

    Much ado about nothing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    RobD said:

    Looks like we'll all be getting the Apple and Google one anyway:

    Google and Apple plan to address the take-up and persistent surveillance problems by first distributing the system through operating system updates, and later removing it in the same way once the threat has passed.[32]
    All they are doing themselves is a framework API (software interface) - it will still be up to individual governments to write the front-end apps themselves.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    Sandpit said:

    All they are doing themselves is a framework API (software interface) - it will still be up to individual governments to write the front-end apps themselves.
    Ah, okay. I suppose it makes a pivot a little easier if our hacker version does get banned. :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    Interesting, if rather jargon laden paper.

    Clinical classifiers of COVID-19 infection from novel ultra-high-throughput proteomics
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081810v1.full.pdf
    The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global challenge. Highly variable in its presentation, spread and clinical outcome, novel point-of-care diagnostic classifiers are urgently required. Here, we describe a set of COVID-19 clinical classifiers discovered using a newly designed low-cost high-throughput mass spectrometry-based platform. Introducing a new sample preparation pipeline coupled with short-gradient high-flow liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry, our methodology facilitates clinical implementation and increases sample throughput and quantification precision. Providing a rapid assessment of serum or plasma samples at scale, we report 27 biomarkers that distinguish mild and severe forms of COVID-19, of which some may have potential as therapeutic targets. These proteins highlight the role of complement factors, the coagulation system, inflammation modulators as well as pro-inflammatory signalling upstream and downstream of Interleukin 6. Application of novel methodologies hence transforms proteomics from a research tool into a rapid-response, clinically actionable technology adaptable to infectious outbreaks....
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    eek said:

    Depends how much freelance work you are doing.

    If it's going to be less than £1000 I don't believe you have to otherwise you do need to as you will need to fill in a self assessment form. https://www.freelanceuk.com/tax_matters/mistakes-freelancers-make-when-filing-self-assessment-tax-return.shtml has a decent overview.

    assuming your clients have got standard freelance contracts the tax man will only know about it when you tell them. as we are in 20/21 you won't need to declare it for quite some time. IIRC December 2021. You are not doing anything wrong so don't worry. Good luck.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    Funnily enough Nicola is outlining the same test trace isolate policy just now on Sky and it will be a key part but will need to combine safe distancing and use of masks. Also people will need to self isolate if they have been near a covid infection

    Also increased testing and the use of a digital system. Proximity app is being led by UK government and is an important part of any system

    To be fair Nicola is doing a good job

    Maybe a bit more constructive comments Malc would add to the debate.

    G, I go by what I see and the current government leaders are a bunch of lying , cheating , shysters. I would not trust a word that comes out of their mouths.
    Total belief in a cult is not for me I am afraid, I use my brain and look at the facts.
    I am exactly the same with the only Scottish political party as well, I do not slavishly believe all they say, though they are amateurs in respect to the lying cheating Tory mob.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    Sandpit said:

    All they are doing themselves is a framework API (software interface) - it will still be up to individual governments to write the front-end apps themselves.
    Best solution would just be to integrate it into the OS itself :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    No, the Cheltenham thing is a complete red herring created by CCHQ to distract attention from Boris watching the rugby at Twickers three days earlier.
    If so It worked.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    Pagan2 said:

    Only if people use it properly which I also doubt. An alert comes in you have been in contact with someone who thinks they now have covid. Stuff that I am not self isolating I feel fine and I am meeting friends later will be the general attitude I think
    Fair enough but please don't moan when we are back in lockdown again in a couple of months time because that's exactly where we are headed in this country because too many people will not act responsibly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    All they are doing themselves is a framework API (software interface) - it will still be up to individual governments to write the front-end apps themselves.
    Makes me wonder if the various national apps will interface at all? Eg if a traveller comes into contact in an airport will that be identified? Or would you need to be on same apps.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,589
    Nigelb said:

    Absent some very surprising randomised clinical trial results, I don't think there's any need to discredit it; there is simply no evidence that it works, and significant evidence of potentially severe side effects.
    I've been drinking plenty of G&T just in case quinine helps. But doctors aren't stupid. If there was any evidence this worked, they'd all be using it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Best solution would just be to integrate it into the OS itself :)
    Excludes anyone not on latest OS.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    SAGE membership list released in full. I wonder how many Corbynistas are on it?

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/04/read-full-government-reveals-sage-membership/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222

    Makes me wonder if the various national apps will interface at all? Eg if a traveller comes into contact in an airport will that be identified? Or would you need to be on same apps.
    I expect other countries will make having THEIR app a requirement of entry whereas we'll probably just say well it's not going to affect the overall prevalence and let travellers carry on their merry way.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    RobD said:

    From the Telegraph live blog

    "I think the main point I’m making is that an independent science advisory group really needs to be dominated by people whose income is not determined by the fact they are working for the Government."

    I'd be surprised if the people on SAGE were salaried employees of the government. They seem to be under the impression SAGE are just a bunch of yes-men.
    Does anyone think otherwise apart from Tory fanboys.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,589

    I've no idea. People voluntarily sharing information via voluntarily downloading a temporary app they can disable or uninstall at will is perfectly libertarian. There is no libertarian reason not to engage with the app.

    If the government wants to track us permanently they'll need to do more than get us to download an app I will uninstall whenever I want to and certainly by the end of this pandemic.
    It is also surely possible to be a libertarian and not believe in a right to privacy.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    Your post fails in its first paragraph. Tesco and Jaguar won't say "thats us fucked then" as they won't be fucked. In fact Tesco and Jaguar are more than capable of dealing with paperwork which they already deal with for non-EU trade. Its no big deal for them.

    The third paragraph is equally absurd. The shelves won't be empty.

    The fourth paragraph is nonsense too. NI wasn't surrendered, the protocol requires ongoing Stormont consent to stay in place. Devolution is well established in this nation now.

    The second and fifth paragraphs are just ranting and insulting the intelligence of people, it has no actual point.

    But apart from that . . .
    As I said, you evidently know more about supply chain logistics than supply chains and logistics do. Go ask the Port of Dover what impact all of these checks will have. Don't say "use another port" as it'll be the same there as well" The queues will back up forever, trucks won't get through and that means stuff won't get through. Which means food and car parts.

    So yes, they will be fucked. As their industries have detailed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    malcolmg said:

    Does anyone think otherwise apart from Tory fanboys.
    Sometimes I worry about just how cynical you are.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    Regarding the book row, I am uncomfortable with the idea that if you have a book on a bookshelf it means you must endorse the contents. Some people no doubt have carefully curated bookshelves but for other people they just use their bookshelves as a dumping ground and never throw anything out.

    Do we even know Gove even read the book? Could easily be an unwanted birthday or Christmas present. Could belong to someone else in the family.

    Fanny alert
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pulpstar said:

    Best solution would just be to integrate it into the OS itself :)
    The problem is that it would still require inputs from government or medical professionals, such as positive and negative test results, number of days to go back or forwards for 'contacts' etc. These will vary by jurisdiction, as will the precise language and instructions used for alerts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793

    Winning depends upon building a big tent yes but he never fooled anyone and never pretended to be (or campaigned with) Farage.
    "Boris" Johnson never fooled anyone. Priti Patel is a "social liberal".

    These are fabulous. But don't go thinking you can never top them. That way lies decline.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, the next general election looks like continued hard Brexit and WTO terms with Boris or rejoin the single market with Starmer and the LDs and SNP
    Very unlikely. Most people will have moved on and won't be interested.Not much different to the Iraq War , Suez or Rhodesia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300117?via=ihub
    Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for assessing the community-wide impact of mask use by the general, asymptomatic public, a portion of which may be asymptomatically infectious. Model simulations, using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Washington, suggest that broad adoption of even relatively ineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, mask use decreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to the product of mask effectiveness (as a fraction of potentially infectious contacts blocked) and coverage rate (as a fraction of the general population), while the impact on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) is highly nonlinear, indicating masks could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures. Notably, masks are found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthy persons and preventing asymptomatic transmission. Hypothetical mask adoption scenarios, for Washington and New York state, suggest that immediate near universal (80%) adoption of moderately (50%) effective masks could prevent on the order of 17–45% of projected deaths over two months in New York, while decreasing the peak daily death rate by 34–58%, absent other changes in epidemic dynamics. Even very weak masks (20% effective) can still be useful if the underlying transmission rate is relatively low or decreasing: In Washington, where baseline transmission is much less intense, 80% adoption of such masks could reduce mortality by 24–65% (and peak deaths 15–69%), compared to 2–9% mortality reduction in New York (peak death reduction 9–18%). Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic. The community-wide benefits are likely to be greatest when face masks are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical practices (such as social-distancing), and when adoption is nearly universal (nation-wide) and compliance is high....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    Question for the PB Brains Trust

    I've just started taking on freelance work in the evenings and weekends, despite the fact that I am full-time employed on PAYE.

    What's my best option?

    Simply go into the SA system and declare the additional income to HMRC or some other mechanism?

    Thanks for your views!

    Stick it in your pocket or put it in your wife/mother's name.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    .

    Question for the PB Brains Trust

    I've just started taking on freelance work in the evenings and weekends, despite the fact that I am full-time employed on PAYE.

    What's my best option?

    Simply go into the SA system and declare the additional income to HMRC or some other mechanism?

    Thanks for your views!

    Declare everything and/or ask HMRC for the correct means of doing this.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    Nigelb said:

    To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300117?via=ihub
    Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for assessing the community-wide impact of mask use by the general, asymptomatic public, a portion of which may be asymptomatically infectious. Model simulations, using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Washington, suggest that broad adoption of even relatively ineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, mask use decreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to the product of mask effectiveness (as a fraction of potentially infectious contacts blocked) and coverage rate (as a fraction of the general population), while the impact on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) is highly nonlinear, indicating masks could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures. Notably, masks are found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthy persons and preventing asymptomatic transmission. Hypothetical mask adoption scenarios, for Washington and New York state, suggest that immediate near universal (80%) adoption of moderately (50%) effective masks could prevent on the order of 17–45% of projected deaths over two months in New York, while decreasing the peak daily death rate by 34–58%, absent other changes in epidemic dynamics. Even very weak masks (20% effective) can still be useful if the underlying transmission rate is relatively low or decreasing: In Washington, where baseline transmission is much less intense, 80% adoption of such masks could reduce mortality by 24–65% (and peak deaths 15–69%), compared to 2–9% mortality reduction in New York (peak death reduction 9–18%). Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic. The community-wide benefits are likely to be greatest when face masks are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical practices (such as social-distancing), and when adoption is nearly universal (nation-wide) and compliance is high....

    The last bit is sort of stating the obvious. Staying apart from people is probably the most effective way of stopping transmission. If you are doing that, a mask isn't going to do much more.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Interesting snippet:

    I had cause to buy something from CeX which resulted in them giving me a voucher for £15. All CeX's vouchers are valid for 1,000 years and a week.

    I asked them if they could possibly notify me two weeks before the voucher expires.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,589
    RobD said:

    The last bit is sort of stating the obvious. Staying apart from people is probably the most effective way of stopping transmission. If you are doing that, a mask isn't going to do much more.
    It may be useful for situations where it is difficult to stay far enough apart though, eg public transport and shops
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    malcolmg said:

    Stick it in your pocket or put it in your wife/mother's name.
    @Anabobazina don't do this, you'll end up facing tax fraud charges.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    RobD said:

    The last bit is sort of stating the obvious. Staying apart from people is probably the most effective way of stopping transmission. If you are doing that, a mask isn't going to do much more.
    Good luck with that at any supermarket near where I live
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    Probably, as he behaved both poorly in a serious way and dishonestly in reaction saving any genuine apology until the very end (ergo it was not in any way genuine but extracted grudgingly) though I hope we don’t one day go extreme and expect resignation over any breach.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    malcolmg said:

    Stick it in your pocket or put it in your wife/mother's name.
    I cannot believe you said that Malc
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    malcolmg said:

    Stick it in your pocket or put it in your wife/mother's name.
    Tax advice you can trust :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    As I said, you evidently know more about supply chain logistics than supply chains and logistics do. Go ask the Port of Dover what impact all of these checks will have. Don't say "use another port" as it'll be the same there as well" The queues will back up forever, trucks won't get through and that means stuff won't get through. Which means food and car parts.

    So yes, they will be fucked. As their industries have detailed.
    The Port of Dover have said they can cope. That Port of Dover?

    If queues are what you are worried about then coronavirus minimises that risk does it not?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    RobD said:

    Sometimes I worry about just how cynical you are.
    It is based on what I see in reality Rob, unfortunately. I don't wear rosy specs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Makes me wonder if the various national apps will interface at all? Eg if a traveller comes into contact in an airport will that be identified? Or would you need to be on same apps.
    Theoretically the Apple/Google solution would work across different apps, the issues would arise when the local apps themselves are not designed to be compatible.

    Also all the usual international App Store issues - so if I'm in a foreign country who won't put their own app on the UK App Store for GDPR reasons but make it compulsory to download as a condition of entry or access to services, or the NHS app that can't be downloaded by foreign visitors for similar reasons - remembering that tens of millions of people (at least) reside somewhere other than the location of their phone's App Store.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    "Boris" Johnson never fooled anyone. Priti Patel is a "social liberal".

    These are fabulous. But don't go thinking you can never top them. That way lies decline.
    I never said Patel is a social liberal I said she is more liberal than people give her credit for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    These are the types of people that sadly now hold positions of influence in the modern Conservative Party thanks to Bozo and his cabal. If this is true it is an absolute disgrace.
    He’s behaved very poorly and that reflects on those that appointed him but you seem to be suggesting no mp in a position of influence had ever behaved so prior to Boris. That’s insane.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    It may be useful for situations where it is difficult to stay far enough apart though, eg public transport and shops
    Of course!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    RobD said:

    SAGE membership list released in full. I wonder how many Corbynistas are on it?

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/04/read-full-government-reveals-sage-membership/

    More like how many government Tory stooges.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    I've got Michael Owen's autobiography. It has the air of something dashed off to cash in on celebrity. Very few interesting insights in it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    I've been drinking plenty of G&T just in case quinine helps. But doctors aren't stupid. If there was any evidence this worked, they'd all be using it.
    Be keeping it quiet for themselves.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "The London NHS Nightingale hospital is to be put "on standby" as no new coronavirus admissions are expected in the coming days, Downing Street has said.

    The prime minister's spokesman said the move was due to limited demand."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-london-nhs-nightingale-hospital-to-be-placed-on-standby-11982949
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited May 2020
    Guardian's criticism of SAGE from a week or so ago..

    It is hard to look at the list and not feel it needs more mathematical modellers or more statisticians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/24/case-for-transparency-over-sage-has-never-been-clearer

    ....

    No, not enough maths people....I haven't even been through the list properly, just the ones that popped out at me. Clearly a group of retards this lot...

    Professor Neil Ferguson - We all know him

    Professor Julia Gog - Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (DAMTP) Mathematics of infectious diseases,viral bioinformatics,influenza modelling

    Sir David Spiegelhalter - Very famous Cambridge stats guy

    Professor Sir Ian Diamond - National Statistician, Office for National Statistics

    Tim Gowers - Cambridge maths professor and Fields Medal winner

    Dr Demis Hassabis FRS - All round ML / AI genius and brains behind Deep Mind
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    malcolmg said:

    More like how many government Tory stooges.
    Is Professor Mark Woolhouse a Tory stooge?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    malcolmg said:

    More like how many government Tory stooges.
    Knock yourself out, give us a list of them and why they are stooges.

    Right now I'll go with my previous assumption that it's a reasonable group of respected experts.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,310
    kle4 said:

    He’s behaved very poorly and that reflects on those that appointed him but you seem to be suggesting no mp in a position of influence had ever behaved so prior to Boris. That’s insane.
    So why isn't Johnson throwing this piece of shit out of the party? He had no problem withdrawing the whip from MPs who committed the terrible offence of voting against his government.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    MaxPB said:

    @Anabobazina don't do this, you'll end up facing tax fraud charges.
    Max, I hardly think he/she is that stupid or they would not be asking about HMRC and SA. Have you no sense of humour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    Guardian's criticism of SAGE from a week or so ago..

    It is hard to look at the list and not feel it needs more mathematical modellers or more statisticians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/24/case-for-transparency-over-sage-has-never-been-clearer

    ....

    No, not enough maths people....I haven't even been through the list properly, just the ones that popped out at me. Clearly a group of retards this lot...

    Professor Neil Ferguson - We all know him

    Professor Julia Gog - Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (DAMTP) Mathematics of infectious diseases,viral bioinformatics,influenza modelling

    Sir David Spiegelhalter - Very famous Cambridge stats guy

    Professor Sir Ian Diamond - National Statistician, Office for National Statistics

    Tim Gowers - Cambridge maths professor and Fields Medal winner

    Dr Demis Hassabis FRS - All round ML / AI genius and brains behind Deep Mind

    More bollocks from the Guardian then!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    kle4 said:

    He’s behaved very poorly and that reflects on those that appointed him but you seem to be suggesting no mp in a position of influence had ever behaved so prior to Boris. That’s insane.
    He has surrounded himself with a right bunch of shysters though, no bad egg here, they are all rotten to the core to mix my metaphors.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    I never said Patel is a social liberal I said she is more liberal than people give her credit for.
    Yes bit like goebbels
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    I cannot believe you said that Malc
    Has everybody lost their sense of humour on here.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Pulpstar said:

    Tax advice you can trust :)
    I was thinking of a new career , where I could make use of my expertise.
  • rjkrjk Posts: 72
    Sandpit said:

    If the UK gov app works using a 0-day exploit (a software bug that is not generally known about) of the IOS bluetooth stack, as has been reported, Apple absolutely will ban it from the App Store.
    Is that confirmed anywhere?

    As I understand it, by default, apps can't access Bluetooth LE unless they're actively running, meaning that you need to have the app open. This prevents regular apps from tracking you using Bluetooth LE, or from draining the battery excessively, which is the kind of security we expect Apple and Google to provide. Apple/Google have made available a special feature to support background use of Bluetooth LE for anonymous contact tracing, which governments can use, but the UK government is apparently not using it?

    This raises the question of how the app is meant to work at all. If it works by exploiting a security issue, then that means that any other app could be doing the same thing, and you would expect Apple/Google to rectify the security issue promptly. One presumes that GCHQ jealously guards its knowledge of such security loopholes for targeted attacks on important targets, and drawing attention to them in this way would not be ideal for them. It would also justify the otherwise outlandish-seeming claim that there is something "dodgy" about the contact tracing app, precisely the kind of thing that would cause people to avoid using it (by not installing the app, or by switching their phones off or leaving them at home). I find it hard to believe that the UK government would take this approach, though hard-to-believe things happen quite often these days.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Question for the PB Brains Trust

    I've just started taking on freelance work in the evenings and weekends, despite the fact that I am full-time employed on PAYE.

    What's my best option?

    Simply go into the SA system and declare the additional income to HMRC or some other mechanism?

    Thanks for your views!

    You are legally obliged to tell HMRC of any income which is not taxed. So just write to them with details. They may then adjust your PAYE code and/or send you a Self Assessment form at the end of the tax year (assuming that the amount isn't trivial).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222

    Guardian's criticism of SAGE from a week or so ago..

    It is hard to look at the list and not feel it needs more mathematical modellers or more statisticians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/24/case-for-transparency-over-sage-has-never-been-clearer

    ....

    No, not enough maths people....I haven't even been through the list properly, just the ones that popped out at me. Clearly a group of retards this lot...

    Professor Neil Ferguson - We all know him

    Professor Julia Gog - Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (DAMTP) Mathematics of infectious diseases,viral bioinformatics,influenza modelling

    Sir David Spiegelhalter - Very famous Cambridge stats guy

    Professor Sir Ian Diamond - National Statistician, Office for National Statistics

    Tim Gowers - Cambridge maths professor and Fields Medal winner

    Dr Demis Hassabis FRS - All round ML / AI genius and brains behind Deep Mind

    I can't see Tim Gowers on the list.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    The Port of Dover have said they can cope. That Port of Dover?

    If queues are what you are worried about then coronavirus minimises that risk does it not?
    "Doug Bannister, the chief executive at the port of Dover, told a fringe event at the Conservative conference that the government’s assumed drop in traffic under a no-deal scenario would cut £1bn a week from the flow of goods.

    He said the port had made extensive preparations for 31 October to function as usual but added: “That’s how critical it is. If there’s a no-deal Brexit, it’s not going to be OK. But people are doing all they can to ensure Britain keeps trading.”

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/01/dover-could-lose-1bn-of-trade-a-week-with-no-deal-brexit
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    He has surrounded himself with a right bunch of shysters though, no bad egg here, they are all rotten to the core to mix my metaphors.
    Considering Burns has been made to resign immediately and was already in the party and had been a PPS under both Cameron and May it seems odd to blame Johnson for his impropriety.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited May 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't see Tim Gowers on the list.
    Firstly, two people asked not to be named on the list. Journalists have reported he was definitely in meetings. Might be a "attended, but not formally on panel".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222


    You are legally obliged to tell HMRC of any income which is not taxed.

    That's not quite true ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't see Tim Gowers on the list.
    The actual list - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership/list-of-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    rjk said:

    Is that confirmed anywhere?

    The BBC reported that experts from the cyber security arm of the spy agency, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), had "aided the effort".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428

    -----

    The committee also asked Gould directly whether UK spy agency, GCHQ, was involved in the decision to choose a centralized approach for the app. The BBC reported yesterday that experts from the cyber security arm of the spy agency, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), had aided the effort.

    At first pass Gould dodged the question. Pressed a second time he dodged a direct answer, saying only that the NCSC was “part of the discussions in which we decided to take the approach that we’ve taken”.

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/28/uks-coronavirus-contacts-tracing-app-could-ask-users-to-share-location-data/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited May 2020

    twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1257280667739619329

    This is again really irresponsible to be publishing leaks on this stuff. Things are still in motion. This is a crucial moment, lots of false reporting or reporting certain rules (which are still under discussion) as fact, will only likely lead to confusion.

    I have no problem with posting leaks when governments have shown to lie or mislead the public, but this isn't the case.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222

    This is again really irresponsible to be publishing leaks on this stuff. Things are still in motion. This is a crucial moment, lots of false reporting or reporting certain rules (which are still under discussion) as fact, will only likely lead to confusion.
    Don't forget Mark Di Stefano was a previous employee of Buzzgarbage news.
This discussion has been closed.