politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We could be heading for GE2015 outcome that’ll appear to be

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

auth0r said:

The thing that would almost guarantee to Scots voting NO would be for their to be a campaign in England indicating how many of us would dearly love to get shot of our whining Northern neighbours. Out of perversity they would vote not to leave.
I am reminded of the PG Wodehouse quotation " it is not hard to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scotsman with a grievance"

You are a credit to England and unionism. Keep polishing that bowler.

ethnically most bowler wearers are scots.

Alan,
Yes and luckily not that many left nowadays ( even if too many still ). However with online trolls they could be posting from anywhere, and sure a good few of them live in England in any case.

so like cybernats ? :-)

LOL, we know most unionists are from outside Scotland .

I hear Bath's nice.......

Very pleasant but not a patch on Scotland.

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Easterross said:

Just spotted this:

Scott Harrison @Harri159
Interesting letter in Sunday Herald about an #indyref poll being buried due to high Yes vote - from an employee of Ipsos Mori!

Any idea what the jist of the letter is?

a recent poll commissioned bu the Cabinet Office was "buried"as it returned a result which showed the YES vote was soaring. The poll was held by my employer Ipsos Mori

As the Cabinet Office has not published any polls, presumably this was a private poll and both Ipsos Mori and their alleged employee are in breach of contract - I expect Ipsos Mori will wish to clarify things promptly.

Further, since the Cabinet Office does not publish its polls, how was this one "buried"?

Yes if true I am sure they will be out shortly giving us the numbers.
Re the Cabinet Office , burying the truth is their stock in trade.

Much like governments suppressing legal advice. .*innocent face*

There was never anything to conceal, that was the point. Just Labour love wasting money on FOI. I am sure they are good at it as well though.

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

auth0r said:

The thing that would almost guarantee to Scots voting NO would be for their to be a campaign in England indicating how many of us would dearly love to get shot of our whining Northern neighbours. Out of perversity they would vote not to leave.
I am reminded of the PG Wodehouse quotation " it is not hard to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scotsman with a grievance"

You are a credit to England and unionism. Keep polishing that bowler.

ethnically most bowler wearers are scots.

Alan,
Yes and luckily not that many left nowadays ( even if too many still ). However with online trolls they could be posting from anywhere, and sure a good few of them live in England in any case.

so like cybernats ? :-)

LOL, we know most unionists are from outside Scotland , donations wise as well. Yes have some support outside Scotland but majority are local and all donations are from Scotland. Yet unionists whinge that YES have more money and that is why they are CRAP.

LOL malc I'm pretty sure about 80% of Yes funding comes from two people in Largs.

Alan, It does, but 2 nice people , whereas 80% of NO's comes from outsiders , war criminals , etc. They are in Troon now I think , after paying for all their friends and neighbours houses for them they bought a big pile in Troon, but have a modest £1M one in Largs as well I think.

PS after a Tory MSP labelled them dupes and numpties in the newspapers this week they threw in another million just to piss him off and show how pathetic he was.

TwistedFireStopper Wrong on both counts, Saddam Hussein is no longer killing and torturing his people and massacring the Kurds, Afghanistan no longer has the Taleban in control, Bin Laden is dead, and there was a vast turnout last month by the Afghan people to elect their new president and give him a mandate

taffys said:

.

The tories might do better than expected in the locals because they tend to collect bins more often and keep council tax down.

What's your view??

Cue for saying that is certainly the case in the Sultanate of Elmbridge where we've frozen Council Tax for six out eight years (and will do so again next year if re-elected). Just saying with a conspicuously innocent face, dear voter.

isam said:

Garethofthevale said:

Mike - if UKIP get 20% it will break all the seat calculators. The reason is that these take 2010's figures and apply a uniform swing. The problem is that UKIP did poorly across the country in 2010 and the calculators don't reflect the hotbeds of UKIP support shown by the locals. For example, if you enter the figures above into Baxter, you get the following UKIP shares:

Boston and Skegness - 25%
Great Yarmouth 20%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd - 17%
Banff and Buchan - 13%

In reality, if UKIP get 20% nationwide they'll be on +30% in Boston and Gt Yarmouth and still less than 10% in Banff and Dwyfor

In Thurrock UKIP have scored double their nationwide vote in the last three GE's. Last time it was 2.25 times the national.

In 2010 Con scored 36.8 and Lab 36.6.. If UKIP are polling 15% next May surely they take the seat? 7/1 available

13% in Banff and Buchan, someone is criminally insane.

JohnO said:

taffys said:

.

The tories might do better than expected in the locals because they tend to collect bins more often and keep council tax down.

What's your view??

Cue for saying that is certainly the case in the Sultanate of Elmbridge where we've frozen Council Tax for six out eight years (and will do so again next year if re-elected). Just saying with a conspicuously innocent face, dear voter.

A PB PPB.

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

auth0r said:

The thing that would almost guarantee to Scots voting NO would be for their to be a campaign in England indicating how many of us would dearly love to get shot of our whining Northern neighbours. Out of perversity they would vote not to leave.
I am reminded of the PG Wodehouse quotation " it is not hard to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scotsman with a grievance"

You are a credit to England and unionism. Keep polishing that bowler.

ethnically most bowler wearers are scots.

Alan,
Yes and luckily not that many left nowadays ( even if too many still ). However with online trolls they could be posting from anywhere, and sure a good few of them live in England in any case.

so like cybernats ? :-)

LOL, we know most unionists are from outside Scotland , donations wise as well. Yes have some support outside Scotland but majority are local and all donations are from Scotland. Yet unionists whinge that YES have more money and that is why they are CRAP.

LOL malc I'm pretty sure about 80% of Yes funding comes from two people in Largs.

Well, that's what some Unionist bag of shite objective journal of record says:

The latest gift, on top of £1m donated last year, means the SNP-supporting Ayrshire couple have supplied Yes Scotland with almost 80% of its cash since it was founded in May 2012.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/lottery-winning-weirs-donate-25m-more-to-the-yes-campaign.24190350

Socrates said:

Charles said:

No. Because that would be a crap negotiating strategy.

Cameron has to get in a room and see what he can deliver. And then take it to the principals (the voters) for their decision.

Personally, I'd like to see (a) an opt-out from CAP (b) competence on financial services returned to the UK government (c) restrictions on welfare benefits for EU migrants for a period of time (say 3 years). I'm sure there will be others, but that's just off the top of my head.

Would you mind providing a quote from any negotiating expert that announcing your demands beforehand is a crap negotiating strategy? Because it's absurd. Have we ever seen Bob Crow refuse to issue demands before a strike? What about in football transfers? Did Harry Redknapp ever go into a discussion with another club to purchase a player, but not saying who he wanted to buy? Or maybe in business - have we ever had a CEO enter M&A negotiations not saying which unit of the other business they wish to buy?

This, "I can't say what I want because that's bad negotiation" is just a made up thing by loyalist Tories. They can't provide any theoretical argument for it, they can't provide any evidence of anyone else doing it in any other field, and they can't even logically deconstruct it. Because the real reason David Cameron won't say what he wants is not because it helps him with Brussels. It's because it helps him cover up the fact it'll be a massive let down with the British public.

My job is to negotiate. I've been doing it for 17 years. I reckon that I'm reasonably good at it. Certainly my clients are willing to pay handsomely for my services, which is a pretty good indication.

Of course when you discuss with your partners on the other side of the table you take positions and argue for what you want. But that is done in private. To announce in public what you want restricts flexibility and the ability to negotiate. Bob Crow's public announcements were just that: posturing for the public and the media. The actual deals done were more practical and nuanced.

The most powerful weapon that Cameron has is the in/out referendum. It's the classic strategy of putting someone in the room who has to refer back to the principals for final approval. You want to keep the principals out of the room for as long as possible - and only bring them in when there are the last few points to be closed out.

That's also why Cameron has said that he would argue to stay in. He's posing as the reasonable guy, who wants to do a deal, but you (the other EU countries) have to help him convince his boss.

TwistedFireStopper said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT Iraq was no triumph, but it did remove Saddam Hussein so was hardly a failure either

It was for most of the Iraqi people. Just like Afghanistan will be.

How good were the ancien regimes for the Kurds, or the Marsh Arabs, or the young women of Afghanistan?

Easterross said:

David Cameron will in effect form a majority government as he will be promised support by the DUP/UUP.

Just a reminder that the UUP have no MPs and few prospects of improving on that and the DUP are for sale rather than automatically in the Tory camp. You might be disappointed if you're relying on Northern Irish unionists to prop up your government. Or at least significantly the poorer for it.

Further to my post, I have been looking at the seat calculators further. As it is saying the biggest swing will be from the Conservatives, they are giving the largest UKIP shares to seats with high numbers of Conservatives so you get:

Kensington - 20% UKIP
Hampstead - 19% UKIP

even though these are far too prosperous to have high UKIP shares.

Barking is one Labour seat where UKIP have been predicted to do well but the predicted share is 14% compared to 16% in Brent Central and 17% in Tottenham!

Isam - for Thurrock the seat calculator gives 20% UKIP compared to 27% Con, 39% Lab but not sure I believe this when the UKIP share is less than that in St Albans (22%), Buckingham (24%) and Aylesbury (25%)

Afternoon all. I wish to pick the brains of the good people of pb.com with a question about a very common drink. I am contemplating entering the world of tea drinking. Ordinary, decaf, green and a fruit have been bought to trial. Any tips and recommendations for a nearly new tea drinker? I say 'nearly' as I have had about two cups about seven years ago!

JamesM said:

Afternoon all. I wish to pick the brains of the good people of pb.com with a question about a very common drink. I am contemplating entering the world of tea drinking. Ordinary, decaf, green and a fruit have been bought to trial. Any tips and recommendations for a nearly new tea drinker? I say 'nearly' as I have had about two cups about seven years ago!

James, Tea Pigs Mao Feng Green Tea is excellent. You can get it online and some big supermarkets do it , Sainsbury's definitely.

JamesM said:

Afternoon all. I wish to pick the brains of the good people of pb.com with a question about a very common drink. I am contemplating entering the world of tea drinking. Ordinary, decaf, green and a fruit have been bought to trial. Any tips and recommendations for a nearly new tea drinker? I say 'nearly' as I have had about two cups about seven years ago!

English or Scottish breakfast tea. Simple and delicious.

1) Twinings English Breakfast tea with a dash of milk is the one.

2) Shame the Tories can't see that electoral reform would suit them (and realign British politics). The Eurosceptics would leave to fuse with UKIP, and the modernists join with Orange Bookers and ultra Blairites. I suspect the LDs would disappear, and a new Social Democratic and Labour party (? New Democrats ?) form. Shame it will rake many years for this to sink in.

HurstLlama How do you know, had Saddam stayed in power he would have continued killing and who knows what unsavoury elements he would have linked too, post-invasion Iraq was botched, but at least it is now electing its own government again in elections this month

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

auth0r said:

The thing that would almost guarantee to Scots voting NO would be for their to be a campaign in England indicating how many of us would dearly love to get shot of our whining Northern neighbours. Out of perversity they would vote not to leave.
I am reminded of the PG Wodehouse quotation " it is not hard to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scotsman with a grievance"

You are a credit to England and unionism. Keep polishing that bowler.

ethnically most bowler wearers are scots.

Alan,
Yes and luckily not that many left nowadays ( even if too many still ). However with online trolls they could be posting from anywhere, and sure a good few of them live in England in any case.

so like cybernats ? :-)

LOL, we know most unionists are from outside Scotland , donations wise as well. Yes have some support outside Scotland but majority are local and all donations are from Scotland. Yet unionists whinge that YES have more money and that is why they are CRAP.

LOL malc I'm pretty sure about 80% of Yes funding comes from two people in Largs.

Alan, It does, but 2 nice people , whereas 80% of NO's comes from outsiders , war criminals , etc. They are in Troon now I think , after paying for all their friends and neighbours houses for them they bought a big pile in Troon, but have a modest £1M one in Largs as well I think.

PS after a Tory MSP labelled them dupes and numpties in the newspapers this week they threw in another million just to piss him off and show how pathetic he was.

LOL war criminals. Oh dear

Rob, most of their cash from outside Scotland as well , shows their support. YES have all theirs from inside Scotland. Also if you count all the crowdfunding by the various YES groups and websites etc, the results are informative.

TwistedFireStopper said:

Charles said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT Iraq was no triumph, but it did remove Saddam Hussein so was hardly a failure either

It was for most of the Iraqi people. Just like Afghanistan will be.

How good were the ancien regimes for the Kurds, or the Marsh Arabs, or the young women of Afghanistan?

Not good. I'm not defending the old regimes, I'm just not convinced that all the blood spilled, and all the treasure expended have really been worth it. Not for us, and probably not for the nationals of those countries.

Charles on this thread has shown the frivolity and perversity of the political class. A female employee being mistakenly invited into a strip club is an outrage but the Iraq blood bath is reasonable.
Grotesque.

AJK said:

1) Twinings English Breakfast tea with a dash of milk is the one.

2) Shame the Tories can't see that electoral reform would suit them (and realign British politics). The Eurosceptics would leave to fuse with UKIP, and the modernists join with Orange Bookers and ultra Blairites. I suspect the LDs would disappear, and a new Social Democratic and Labour party (? New Democrats ?) form. Shame it will rake many years for this to sink in.

AJK, Twinings is excellent but too strong with soft Scottish water, hard to get it just right.

JamesM said:

Afternoon all. I wish to pick the brains of the good people of pb.com with a question about a very common drink. I am contemplating entering the world of tea drinking. Ordinary, decaf, green and a fruit have been bought to trial. Any tips and recommendations for a nearly new tea drinker? I say 'nearly' as I have had about two cups about seven years ago!

Yes. ignore the pretentious and do what you like.

Personally I like Ceylon (preferably Orange Pekoe) or Assam, with milk, but without sugar. You can get them in Tescos (I tend to pay up for the Twinings brand though)

HYUFD said:

Isam They accept it yes, although Farage has said he will do more to enforce exemption, but UKIP are not a party you will vote for if you want one which is socially liberal

All the main parties are socially authoritarian in different ways. In the round, UKIP are not more socially authoritarian than the other three. Perhaps it just isn't in the nature of legislators to be anything other than socially authoritarian.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Isam They accept it yes, although Farage has said he will do more to enforce exemption, but UKIP are not a party you will vote for if you want one which is socially liberal

All the main parties are socially authoritarian in different ways. In the round, UKIP are not more socially authoritarian than the other three. Perhaps it just isn't in the nature of legislators to be anything other than socially authoritarian.

The Greens are probably the most socially authoritarian party out there for example.

dyedwoolie Labour would not disappear, large numbers of voters want higher taxes on the rich, not to mention its public sector client state which wants increased spending, most of the BNP may shift to UKIP though

MonikerDiCanio said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Charles said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT Iraq was no triumph, but it did remove Saddam Hussein so was hardly a failure either

It was for most of the Iraqi people. Just like Afghanistan will be.

How good were the ancien regimes for the Kurds, or the Marsh Arabs, or the young women of Afghanistan?

Not good. I'm not defending the old regimes, I'm just not convinced that all the blood spilled, and all the treasure expended have really been worth it. Not for us, and probably not for the nationals of those countries.

Charles on this thread has shown the frivolity and perversity of the political class. A female employee being mistakenly invited into a strip club is an outrage but the Iraq blood bath is reasonable.
Grotesque.

Where did I say the Iraq blood bath was reasonable?

I said, on balance, life was better for the majority of residents of those countries, but that it wasn't worth the cost to the West.

And, yes, a young female employee feeling she had no practical choice but to go to a strip joint with her boss is an outrage.

But the points are in no way comparable. One relates to the kind of society that I would like to live in. The other relates to the Game of Nations.

Charles said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Charles said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT Iraq was no triumph, but it did remove Saddam Hussein so was hardly a failure either

It was for most of the Iraqi people. Just like Afghanistan will be.

How good were the ancien regimes for the Kurds, or the Marsh Arabs, or the young women of Afghanistan?

Not good. I'm not defending the old regimes, I'm just not convinced that all the blood spilled, and all the treasure expended have really been worth it. Not for us, and probably not for the nationals of those countries.

Charles on this thread has shown the frivolity and perversity of the political class. A female employee being mistakenly invited into a strip club is an outrage but the Iraq blood bath is reasonable.
Grotesque.

Where did I say the Iraq blood bath was reasonable?

I said, on balance, life was better for the majority of residents of those countries, but that it wasn't worth the cost to the West.

And, yes, a young female employee feeling she had no practical choice but to go to a strip joint with her boss is an outrage.

But the points are in no way comparable. One relates to the kind of society that I would like to live in. The other relates to the Game of Nations.

It isn't better, it's worse.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/01/01/un-iraq-death-toll/4277451/

Tories have to scrap their annual Youth party conference in Scotland due to lack of support. Even dropping entrance fees to £6.50 from £15 could not get them more than 12 tickets sold. Bodes well for the future of Tory party in Scotland as all the old duffers disappear.

Many thanks so far to @Malcolmg @dyedwoolie @AJK @CarlottaVance and @Charles for your suggestions. Wow, it is far more complex than I could have imagined! I have had a few friends via social media recommend English Breakfast Tea too. Are there any introductory websites on tea? Finally, I try to keep off caffeine where I can, does a decaf tea really ruin the taste for limited benefit?

Charles said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Charles said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT Iraq was no triumph, but it did remove Saddam Hussein so was hardly a failure either

It was for most of the Iraqi people. Just like Afghanistan will be.

How good were the ancien regimes for the Kurds, or the Marsh Arabs, or the young women of Afghanistan?

Not good. I'm not defending the old regimes, I'm just not convinced that all the blood spilled, and all the treasure expended have really been worth it. Not for us, and probably not for the nationals of those countries.

I suspect that life is a lot better (despite the reported violence) for the nationals of those countries. Whether it was worth the Western blood, treasure and loss of prestige/moral authority is much more open to question.

It's difficult to get accurate figures, but I guess this is as good a report as any.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25568687

I'm sure Saddam killed more, but a country that still suffers 10000+ casualties a year since our intervention can't be classed as anything other than a failure.
I'm nowhere near an expert, but I do have lots of anecdotal evidence from forces friends and family, that Afghanistan will go the same way. Once the West announced it was bailing out, the Taliban knew they had won. They don't need to do much to take control, outside of Kabul.

JamesM said:

Many thanks so far to @Malcolmg @dyedwoolie @AJK @CarlottaVance and @Charles for your suggestions. Wow, it is far more complex than I could have imagined! I have had a few friends via social media recommend English Breakfast Tea too. Are there any introductory websites on tea? Finally, I try to keep off caffeine where I can, does a decaf tea really ruin the taste for limited benefit?

Decaf tea tastes terrible

I am drinking a cup of PG Tips "The Fresh One", my current favourite tea

JamesM said:

Many thanks so far to @Malcolmg @dyedwoolie @AJK @CarlottaVance and @Charles for your suggestions. Wow, it is far more complex than I could have imagined! I have had a few friends via social media recommend English Breakfast Tea too. Are there any introductory websites on tea? Finally, I try to keep off caffeine where I can, does a decaf tea really ruin the taste for limited benefit?

Redbush is naturally caffeine free - I have always been wary of consuming decaffeinated drinks because of the process - probably irrational, but there we are!

TwistedFireStopper It is all relative, in 10 years time will Iraq be better than under Saddam Hussein is the question. In Afghanistan the Taliban will not take control out of the regions they control, 10,000 NATO troops are staying to support the new government, there was a vast turnout last month to give the new president a mandate and Abdullah Abdullah, who leads the first round of polling has experience fighting the Russians and the Taliban even before 9/11 when they controlled most of the country

dyedwoolie Under FPTP the public sector will vote en masse for Labour, especially now the LDs are in Coalition with the Tories. Under PR, a few more public sector workers would vote Green as they do for the Euros, but most would never vote Tory or UKIP

malcolmg said:

Tories have to scrap their annual Youth party conference in Scotland due to lack of support. Even dropping entrance fees to £6.50 from £15 could not get them more than 12 tickets sold. Bodes well for the future of Tory party in Scotland as all the old duffers disappear.

Conservatives can win without a single Scottish vote, as they do in Quebec by ignoring the French and chasing votes from their own. Maybe someday the Republicans will win an election when they realise picking up one Hispanic vote by pandering is not worth it if they lose 10 white votes, oh for the days of Nixon and his Southern strategy.

Thanks @Charles. I regard my opening knowledge search on tea well met by pb.com. Thanks one and all!

HYUFD said:

dyedwoolie Under FPTP the public sector will vote en masse for Labour, especially now the LDs are in Coalition with the Tories. Under PR, a few more public sector workers would vote Green as they do for the Euros, but most would never vote Tory or UKIP

I'm public sector and a union member. I'm not a Labour voter.
Under this government, I'm facing redundancy, pension cuts and 1% payrises. Why would the public sector vote Tory?
From your tone, Tories clearly despise us, you're virtually giving us no option but to go to Labour, even if it'll only be more of the same from them.

TwistedFireStopper said:

We could be heading for a perfect storm of political chaos over the next year.
UKIP win the Euros.
Labour or Conservatives come third in the Euros. Doesn't matter which, it's all good.
LDs get slaughtered in the Euros.
The locals might throw up some interesting results.
Newark goes purple.
Scotland votes yes.
The GE conforms to the thread header.

Cameron, Clegg and Milliband won't know what's hit them.

I pray it happens. The country needs shaking up.

Agree,Good post mr stopper.

The Express says the people are salivating at the thought of murdering furry animals by hounds ripping their flesh apart bit by bit but why won't Dave act to let the people enjoy these simple country pleasures?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/475214/Lift-the-ban-and-sweep-back-into-power-Fox-hunt-lobby-holds-key-to-Conservative-victory

dyedwoolie No, because the public sector base for Labour will always mean it is potentially electable

TwistedFireStopper Labour would put up taxes on the rich more and has promised to spread the cuts out over a longertime frame, it was of course Brown's public sector spending splurge which was responsible for much of the deficit in the first place so of course the public sector will vote for the party which feeds them. The armed forces and police are the only areas of the public sector which are more Tory, maybe firefighters are not that different

Charles said:

another_richard said:

Bollox. Those who negotiate from a position of strength aren't afraid to announce what they're going to negotiate because they know they're going to win.

Cameron can't deliver anything, that's the reason he wont announce what he's going to renegotiate.

Contrast that with Thatcher who did announce beforehand and achieved things.

All Cameron is planning is the facade of renegotiation after which he will claim 'victory' even if he's given away even more powers.

Cameron deals in facades - the facade of EU renegotiation, the facade of 'cast iron guarantees' and fake flounces, the facade of austerity, the facade of "paying down Britain's debts", the facade of 'economic rebalancing', the facade of immigration control.

He's not alone in this, its a mentality prevalent throughout the political establishment.

And its why the people planning to vote UKIP despise it.

Would love to negotiate against you! Anything you want to sell?

You need to prepare the ground for a negotiation first. That's what they seem to be doing behind the scenes. There's no point in taking some grand position if you can't get any support for it.

You should also remember that a good negotiation is not about "winning" or "losing". It's about achieving a mutually acceptable outcome for both sides.

There speaks the voice of surrender.

While you're seeking your 'mutually acceptable outcome' the other side are seeking to win.

isam said:

Labour Council Candidate & Head of Policy at New Local Government Network

Laura Wilkes @Laurawilkes 14m
Speechless. Just met a Pakistani man on the doorstep leafleting for the local UKIP candidate. Am I missing something?! @redbridgelabour

Unbelievable.

UNS doesnt work with when a party hits the zero bound of votes like LD do today or UKIP did last time so I used the same methodology used in exit polls as described here: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/
With the latest 13 constituency polls which are all english seats and perhaps not a represantative sample of seats, are for England only CON 128 LAB 338 LD 24 UKIP 36, if I try and use a mix of constituency polls and national polls (a regional mix of ComRes and yougov), plus I break Southern and Eastern coasts of England as a potencial UKIP stronghold, I get a range of results for the whole UK: CON 198-241, LAB 345-390, LD 19-31, UKIP 1-20 seats. The swings vary greatly from a small swing to CON in Scotland and a small swing to LAB in London to double digit swings to LAB in the coasts, the midlands and the north.

Intersting fact, the average swing of constituency polls so far is 10 to LAB, the average westminster by election results is swing of 9 to LAB.

anotherDave said:

"UKIP today reveals two new posters exposing the added cost of living that EU membership brings to people’s every day lives."

http://www.ukip.org/new_ukip_posters_reveal_added_eu_cost_of_living

1. Without the EU, food bills in every UK household would be £400 cheaper.

2. Without the EU, every UK fuel bill would be £112 cheaper.

If true, that's quite a powerful message.

Ninoinoz said:

Charles said:

The most powerful weapon that Cameron has is the in/out referendum. It's the classic strategy of putting someone in the room who has to refer back to the principals for final approval. You want to keep the principals out of the room for as long as possible - and only bring them in when there are the last few points to be closed out.

Hardly democratic though, is it?

You can, of course, show the huge business he built through successive deals due to his negotiating 'skills'.

One of the reasons Cameron failed to win a majority in 2010 was that it was focused on the Big Society when Cameron hadn't run a voluntary group in his life, except the Conservative Party whose membership has collapsed under his leadership.

You are trying the same, unsuccessful, trick again. Even fewer people will be fooled this time.

The alternative, e.g. Brown announcing our gold sales in advance, was not exactly effective*.

* Unless the goal was getting the lowest price.

Off topic, but I need to get a car road legal for tomorrow. It's MOTd, I've just insured it online, but need to tax it.
Does anyone know how long it takes for the DVLA and Insurers databases to get synched?
My son needs to use it tomorrow, but can't get to a post office to physically tax it.

Next said:

anotherDave said:

"UKIP today reveals two new posters exposing the added cost of living that EU membership brings to people’s every day lives."

http://www.ukip.org/new_ukip_posters_reveal_added_eu_cost_of_living

1. Without the EU, food bills in every UK household would be £400 cheaper.

2. Without the EU, every UK fuel bill would be £112 cheaper.

If true, that's quite a powerful message.

I've always thought UKIP's fuel policy was a good "better off with UKIP" offer. I'd never considered food prices, but £400 does look like a powerful 'vote UKIP/leave the EU' argument!