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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We could be heading for GE2015 outcome that’ll appear to be grossly unfair, undemocratic and peverse
For in terms of seat distribution a Ukip vote up to the mid-20s is only important if the party is taking more votes from CON than LAB. The big driver, as ever, is the swing between CON and LAB and in about 10% of constituencies the Lib Dems.
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(shouldn't that be Tories on 280 seats??)
Surely it is better to oppose something in principle, than support something just for electoral advantage?
No bitterness in evidence.
Oh, wait...
Precise details are as yet unclear but leaked reports exclusively shared with JNN indicate that following historical precedent all LibDem candidates will have to sport a beard, wear a figure hugging evening dress and be able to trill a decent Shirley Bassey ballad to assembled husting meetings.
Sources close to Viscount Thurso conceded that whilst the beard was of little concern he would need to raid Vince Cable's stock of bejewelled evening dresses and might have trouble belting out a decent tune !!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html.
On the choice between Miliband and Farage
I disagree - Miliband would be better. He may be absolutely wrongheaded about everything, but he is a professional politician who understands the realities of the world in which we live. It will be a torrid 2 years but then, like Hollande, he will trim his sails. A bad 2 years followed by a wasted 3 years.
Farage relishing the fact that he is different to the rest. My fear - and perhaps I am wrong, so happy to consider any evidence to the contrary - is that he makes too many decisions based on gut feel and that he enjoys "teasing" the media. Those are absolutely the wrong attributes in a PM, who needs to be cool and analytical. Farage is unpredictable. That will scare the market and scare our partners (who will see him as unreliable)
Mr. Smithson, you've rather rewritten history there. The Conservatives delivered their side of the bargain, then the perfidious yellows welched on boundary reforms because they weren't allowed to ruin the Lords with utterly deranged changes.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/spain-pre-race.html
Oh pulease! The Lib Dems lost the AV referendum (which was run less than brilliantly) and then offered up a dogs dinner of HoL reform.....
That's interesting, because until now you have stuck with the LD lie that boundary changes were renaged on because of Lords reform.
Happy birthday OGH.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Risky strategy from Ed if true. Though it would be fun seeing Mr Helmer sitting on the opposition benches.
Which pb kipper would put Cameron's Tories as second choice on their ballot in an AV GE?
That said, given that they have claimed they are focusing their resources on the Euro and local elections that does rather up the ante in those contests
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Admittedly he did post on Saturday night, so perhaps we should put it down to too much fine claret?
Next time ....
I think ultimately we're going to have to move towards PR. I can only see the polarization of Con and Lab getting worse this century, with an increasing trend towards small, local political movements. FPTP doesn't work in such circumstances.
The duopoly of Lab and Con is over, if they want to retain some sort of legitimate power in the 21st century they will have to share it with smaller, like-minded parties.
Or to put it another way (and back in the day I never thought I'd say this) I agree with Rod.
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
Tories 38
Labour 32
LibDem 15
UKIP 10
David Cameron will in effect form a majority government as he will be promised support by the DUP/UUP.
However - if true - this is far far more important than the crap stories that people post about "random UKIP candidate says something vaguely nasty".
Helmer is a senior member of the party - and this is (a) a breach of employment law (b) sexual harassment and (c) deeply deeply unpleasant.
For those interested, a brief piece about why polygraphs are rubbish (been meaning to write it since I started my blog, but the use of one in Supermodels of SHIELD reminded me): http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Once the Don’t Knows were excluded, the poll in September put Yes on 31% and the one in November on 33%. Both polls represented a lower Yes tally than recorded by any other poll conducted at around the same time.
So we should not be surprised that in its third outing, after a gap of nearly six months, the company (for the Sunday Mail) should have once again produced a relatively low Yes vote. It puts Yes on 34%, twenty points behind No on 54%. Once the Don’t Knows are excluded this represents a Yes vote of 39% – the lowest in any poll since the end of February.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/progressive-big-swing-to-yes-but-yes-still-far-behind/
I wouldn't read too much into the third of a pollster's polls.
Has the YeSNP momentum slowed? Possibly - but since that's also what I'd wish for, I'm reluctant to diagnose it.
Shows how worthless an EU referendum would be under Cameron.
Happy Birthday anyway, Mike.
What>? Going for a beer in a strip bar?
Honestly, I know Conservatives are desperate for UKIP to fail and I can understand why, but you are sounding like Loony lefties with your faux outrage and rules and regs
They went for a beer after work and ended up in a seedy dive, shit happens.
The trick is how to extract the maximum price for a concession they will ultimately make.
So you think the article is a lie?
You don't think that what is alleged is an issue?
Another reason?
Genuinely interested in your mind set over issues like this, that for an NO of any other party would be seen as a real problem.
Continued UKIP sensitivity to scrutiny of their candidates (something Con & Lab have learned to live with) is however noted.
If she is correct, that she felt that she had to go because of a threat to her job/career then that is disgraceful.
It would be a sacking offence at any of the firms that I have worked at.
Edited extra bit: I did check the forecasts for the race, and it's likely to be dry throughout.
Nor why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change in Europe'.
Having said that, Eastleigh was once a target seat for Labour.
At the 1980s by-election, Labour were predicting they would win it, based on the national opinion polls at the time.
I have used the idea of innoculation of public opinion to describe the effect of these stories on UKIP support.
Now, what this means is this tactic won't work at the GE, when it really matters. They've wasted it on the Euro elections, a grandiose by-election.
They went to a bar where there were strippers, so what? Its not like she was 15
I am not saying its something I would do myself, I just don't think your average bloke down the pub, where UKIP supporters seem to be drawn from, would bat an eyelid at something like this.
Why haven't they achieved it yet? On (a) because it is a project for the next parliament and (b) because they are in a minority int he European Parliament, but they can and do make plenty of incremental changes that are a positive
http://www.alexandraswann.co.uk/2014/05/1272/
The interesting element will be the reaction to no, devo-max with the neutering of labour in England? Don't count on it with Osbourne, the master strategist, determining affairs.
It's not going to a strip club. It's that she felt she *had* to go because otherwise it would damage her career.
That's as bad as groping junior staff who don't want to complain because they may lose their jobs.
It's all about *attitude* and abuse of power.
Prof Curtice highlights it slightly differently.
Progressive: Big Swing to Yes but Yes Still Far Behind!
Until now, Progressive Scottish Opinion had conducted only a couple of polls of voting intentions in the referendum – one last September, on the occasion of a year to go to polling day, and one at the very end of November, immediately after the publication of the Scottish Government’s White Paper. Even so, those two polls were enough to suggest that the company was amongst the more pessimistic of the pollsters so far as the Yes side was concerned.
Once the Don’t Knows were excluded, the poll in September put Yes on 31% and the one in November on 33%. Both polls represented a lower Yes tally than recorded by any other poll conducted at around the same time.
So we should not be surprised that in its third outing, after a gap of nearly six months, the company (for the Sunday Mail) should have once again produced a relatively low Yes vote. It puts Yes on 34%, twenty points behind No on 54%. Once the Don’t Knows are excluded this represents a Yes vote of 39% – the lowest in any poll since the end of February.
Yet at the same time, this also means that the poll shows a six point swing to Yes compared with last November. Since then, of course, every other pollster has recorded a narrowing of the No lead. To that extent today’s poll is simply further evidence of that narrowing.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/progressive-big-swing-to-yes-but-yes-still-far-behind/
I am just saying that the type of person that is attracted to voting UKIP, in the main doesn't bat an eyelid at this kind of stuff..
"Old bloke takes young assistant to strip bar"... so what?
If it was that he had sexually assaulted her in some way, of course that would be completely different
You only have to look at the other "terrible stories" that have emerged about UKIP members, even Farage and his "allowances", over the last month, and the lack of impact they have, to see that these things don't hamper UKIP in the way they might other parties
Its like bowling bouncers to a batsman because it worked against other batsman, then wondering why they keep getting hit for six.. then bowling another bouncer
I voted Labour at the last election, am a relatively new convert to UKIP... these stories barely register, and I am a political anorak. But most important, it doesn't even make me consider not voting for them.
Its not surprising. He's an imposter.
No conservative would dream of proposing that an organ of state like HRMC to run riot unchecked with the bank accounts of ordinary citizens.
Perhaps you might like to be more specific as to what 'renegotiation of the terms of our membership' actually means.
Ouch.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/andrewmcfbrown/100270900/would-politicians-rather-thought-vain-than-bald/
For many voters, the main parties have not done what it says on the tin.
Labour did many un labour things in government to keep the middle classes on side. The tories are doing some un tory things to keep the liberals in government.
The main parties would all rather be in power than campaign for what they believe in and lose.
* Prostitution in all but name. 'Arriet must be happy-clappy!
(Admittedly, Miliband's comment was ludicrous in the first place)
Sean T has asked my view on how things are going? In the past couple of days I posted a couple of detailed thoughts as to why I believe the pollsters are not reaching most of the YES voters. My greatest worry is that it is getting really nasty and over the summer it is only going to get worse.
Cameron has to get in a room and see what he can deliver. And then take it to the principals (the voters) for their decision.
Personally, I'd like to see (a) an opt-out from CAP (b) competence on financial services returned to the UK government (c) restrictions on welfare benefits for EU migrants for a period of time (say 3 years). I'm sure there will be others, but that's just off the top of my head.
Also interesting book review here: http://www.spiked-online.com/review_of_books/article/ukip-the-revolt-of-the-left-behind/15000
Some odd polls about this weekend. I'm not setting much store by the Scottish poll, nor the very Red YouGov, nor the two polls showing the Tories in the 20s. None of the surveys seem plausible to me.
I note you are also emulating Mick Pork by stealing his trade marked "CHORTLE".
It is not the YES camp that are panicking. Where is Alastair Darling , not seen for months, where are labour in Scotland , again nowhere to be seen. All is not well.
Lib Dems accused of 'smearing' David Cameron's marriage and spreading lies that it is 'in trouble' in vicious feud which threatens to wreck the Coalition
Conservatives angry over Liberal Democrat rumours that the Prime Minister's marriage is 'on the rocks'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625379/Coaliting-feud-hits-vicious-new-low-Lib-Dems-smear-PMs-marriage.html
Their defence is that the leadership had to reassure the party it was fighting the Lib Dems and not preparing for a coalition."
I think the UKIP factor means the ground is shifting very fast, and the polls are struggling to reflect that.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Slide11.jpg
As predicted, when ENP rises above 4, FPTP... implodes.
We would join Grenada, Bhutan, Monaco, Singapore and a couple of other tinpot places as having the most disproportional election results in the world.
A quasi-democracy, at best...
No other large, mature 'democracy' has ever suffered such a freakish election outcome.
We would be a laughing-stock.
That wouldn't be "arrogant and sneering" by any chance, would it?