politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We could be heading for GE2015 outcome that’ll appear to be
For in terms of seat distribution a Ukip vote up to the mid-20s is only important if the party is taking more votes from CON than LAB. The big driver, as ever, is the swing between CON and LAB and in about 10% of constituencies the Lib Dems.
Comments
-
Home alone. Please join me.
(shouldn't that be Tories on 280 seats??)0 -
"I said they were stupid at the time because it was blindingly obvious that the main beneficiary of continuing with First Past the Post was always going to be Labour."
Surely it is better to oppose something in principle, than support something just for electoral advantage?0 -
The Tories are the Stupid Party.0
-
UKIP nul points.0
-
Positive campaigning from the NatsStuart_Dickson said:The Tories are the Stupid Party.
No bitterness in evidence.
Oh, wait...0 -
Good morning all and happy birthday OGH. On thread so much speculation and we are only 10 days away from a real poll with real votes. Let's see how things pan out a fortnight tonight before speculating about the GE next year.0
-
Reports are reaching JNN that Nick Clegg is shortly to launch "Operation Conchita". This post Euro Election strategy is for Clegg's party to rise like a LibDem phoenix and capture the hearts and souls of the British voting public.
Precise details are as yet unclear but leaked reports exclusively shared with JNN indicate that following historical precedent all LibDem candidates will have to sport a beard, wear a figure hugging evening dress and be able to trill a decent Shirley Bassey ballad to assembled husting meetings.
Sources close to Viscount Thurso conceded that whilst the beard was of little concern he would need to raid Vince Cable's stock of bejewelled evening dresses and might have trouble belting out a decent tune !!0 -
still way too early to call. a lot anfd and will happen between now and next May. Does seems though this one is going to be even harder to predict than GE2010.0
-
David Cameron makes clear he will not be PM if he cannot guarantee an In-Out Referendum after next GE0
-
anyone see the indy this morning. If it is true Miliband being very wily in giving the kippers more or less an easy run in Newark. Could cause Cameron a lot of issues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html.0 -
@RichardNabavi FPT
On the choice between Miliband and Farage
I disagree - Miliband would be better. He may be absolutely wrongheaded about everything, but he is a professional politician who understands the realities of the world in which we live. It will be a torrid 2 years but then, like Hollande, he will trim his sails. A bad 2 years followed by a wasted 3 years.
Farage relishing the fact that he is different to the rest. My fear - and perhaps I am wrong, so happy to consider any evidence to the contrary - is that he makes too many decisions based on gut feel and that he enjoys "teasing" the media. Those are absolutely the wrong attributes in a PM, who needs to be cool and analytical. Farage is unpredictable. That will scare the market and scare our partners (who will see him as unreliable)0 -
FPT: Mr. Llama, worth also pointing out the idiocy of a needless war in Iraq, wich had a similar impact on Afghanistan efforts as the Sicilian expedition did upon the Athenians in the Peloponnesian War.
Mr. Smithson, you've rather rewritten history there. The Conservatives delivered their side of the bargain, then the perfidious yellows welched on boundary reforms because they weren't allowed to ruin the Lords with utterly deranged changes.0 -
F1: pre-race piece is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/spain-pre-race.html0 -
The Tories didn’t see it and the tone of their campaign so poisoned relations with the LDs that they were never going to get the boundary change through.
Oh pulease! The Lib Dems lost the AV referendum (which was run less than brilliantly) and then offered up a dogs dinner of HoL reform.....0 -
"The Tories didn’t see it and the tone of their campaign so poisoned relations with the LDs that they were never going to get the boundary change through"
That's interesting, because until now you have stuck with the LD lie that boundary changes were renaged on because of Lords reform.0 -
spot on Mike. Tories shot selves in foot in AV referendum.0
-
Did Dave just go back to the 'cast-iron' firework?
Happy birthday OGH.0 -
Yeah. I saw that.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Risky strategy from Ed if true. Though it would be fun seeing Mr Helmer sitting on the opposition benches.Iggypop37 said:anyone see the indy this morning. If it is true Miliband being very wily in giving the kippers more or less an easy run in Newark. Could cause Cameron a lot of issues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html.0 -
MrsB, splendid to see you on, even if you are completely wrong. Parties should not support or oppose voting systems based on how much it would harm or advantage their own prospects.0
-
Yes. In any case, there's no reason to think that AV would be any better than FPTP. In terms of party advantage, the two would probably be about the same though much depends on the relative strengths of minor parties like UKIP and the Lib Dems.RobD said:"I said they were stupid at the time because it was blindingly obvious that the main beneficiary of continuing with First Past the Post was always going to be Labour."
Surely it is better to oppose something in principle, than support something just for electoral advantage?0 -
Look, Ed might not be my first choice of PM, but an Ed / Nigel comparison? Really? Farage couldn't run a district council, never mind a country.0
-
I was escorted personally to the (last) train by a guilt-ridden Neil and somehow contrived to stay awake and alight, albeit a little unsteadily, at Hersham Halt.JackW said:
Did you enjoy a post "Dirty Dick's" jaunt this time ?!?JohnO said:Home alone. Please join me.
(shouldn't that be Tories on 280 seats??)0 -
AV would not give the Tories more chance of power. It was almost designed to keep them out of power. They made no mistake.
Which pb kipper would put Cameron's Tories as second choice on their ballot in an AV GE?Scott_P said:
They made the terminal mistake of taking the Lib Dems at their word.MrsB said:Tories shot selves in foot in AV referendum.
0 -
Good to see OGH having a happy birthday. Another cause for celebration is the retirement of Gordon Brown, as well as the Coalition. Keeping Labour out of power is no bad thing after all, even Cameron can recognise that.0
-
Getting their excuses in early, I see...Iggypop37 said:anyone see the indy this morning. If it is true Miliband being very wily in giving the kippers more or less an easy run in Newark. Could cause Cameron a lot of issues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html.
That said, given that they have claimed they are focusing their resources on the Euro and local elections that does rather up the ante in those contests0 -
Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html0 -
It takes more than one. Who would be in a UKIP cabinet? Roger Helmer, Neil Hamilton?MrsB said:
Look, Ed might not be my first choice of PM, but an Ed / Nigel comparison? Really? Farage couldn't run a district council, never mind a country.
0 -
I agree. I don't know why Mr Nabavi's usual judgement seems to have deserted him.MrsB said:Look, Ed might not be my first choice of PM, but an Ed / Nigel comparison? Really? Farage couldn't run a district council, never mind a country.
Admittedly he did post on Saturday night, so perhaps we should put it down to too much fine claret?0 -
How perversely disappointing .... especially for those of us awaiting with barely concealed anticipation at the prospect of your latest voyage of discovery to the south coast.JohnO said:
I was escorted persoanlly to the (last) train by a guilt-ridden Neil and somehow contrived to stay awake and alight, albeit a little unsteadily, at Hersham Halt.JackW said:
Did you enjoy a post "Dirty Dick's" jaunt this time ?!?JohnO said:Home alone. Please join me.
(shouldn't that be Tories on 280 seats??)
Next time ....
0 -
If we don't get an election result that's "unfair, undemocratic and perverse" in 2015, it'll happen before long.
I think ultimately we're going to have to move towards PR. I can only see the polarization of Con and Lab getting worse this century, with an increasing trend towards small, local political movements. FPTP doesn't work in such circumstances.
The duopoly of Lab and Con is over, if they want to retain some sort of legitimate power in the 21st century they will have to share it with smaller, like-minded parties.
Or to put it another way (and back in the day I never thought I'd say this) I agree with Rod.
0 -
dr_spyn said:
Good to see OGH having a happy birthday. Another cause for celebration is the retirement of Gordon Brown, as well as the Coalition. Keeping Labour out of power is no bad thing after all, even Cameron can recognise that.
Where is the confirmation Brown is to stand down? He absolutely refused to answer the question when Samantha Simmons tried to question him on SKY News this week.dr_spyn said:Good to see OGH having a happy birthday. Another cause for celebration is the retirement of Gordon Brown, as well as the Coalition. Keeping Labour out of power is no bad thing after all, even Cameron can recognise that.
0 -
He'd be being too clever for his own good. Does he really think it's a good idea allowing a party that lost its deposit finishing fourth last time, almost 20% behind Labour to overtake them? Newark was always going to be a tough take for Labour but if their own vote share drops, what message does that give to other Labour target seats where they might stand a decent chance?Iggypop37 said:anyone see the indy this morning. If it is true Miliband being very wily in giving the kippers more or less an easy run in Newark. Could cause Cameron a lot of issues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html.0 -
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd0 -
Ed wasn't first choice of the PLP either.0
-
I wonder whether Dave and Nick have already had discussions about what it would take for the Lib-Dems to agree to an IN/OUT?Easterross said:David Cameron makes clear he will not be PM if he cannot guarantee an In-Out Referendum after next GE
0 -
Tony Blair would have had a decent go at winning Newark 94-97. Indeed, he DID win it 1997.david_herdson said:
He'd be being too clever for his own good. Does he really think it's a good idea allowing a party that lost its deposit finishing fourth last time, almost 20% behind Labour to overtake them? Newark was always going to be a tough take for Labour but if their own vote share drops, what message does that give to other Labour target seats where they might stand a decent chance?Iggypop37 said:anyone see the indy this morning. If it is true Miliband being very wily in giving the kippers more or less an easy run in Newark. Could cause Cameron a lot of issues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html.0 -
I would be wary of MoS poll reporting - they frequently compare polls from different companies - the absolute numbers are probably ok, but any "trend" should be treated with caution.SeanT said:Better Together @UK_Together 40m
NEW POLL Sunday Mail Yougov poll for Progressive has NO lead growing by 6 points. YES 34% NO 54% #indyref pic.twitter.com/5plBNJXukG
0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
0 -
Since I am still in a jolly mood after last night's Eurovision here is my 1st prediction for the General Election next year:
Tories 38
Labour 32
LibDem 15
UKIP 10
David Cameron will in effect form a majority government as he will be promised support by the DUP/UUP.0 -
Of course it won't put off the hardcore, who seem every bit as nuts as the parade of alien conspiracists who plague a certain tv channel. It may make the "let's punish the buggers" crowd think again though.isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?0 -
I'm always wary of reaching conclusions based on a Mail story ;-)isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
However - if true - this is far far more important than the crap stories that people post about "random UKIP candidate says something vaguely nasty".
Helmer is a senior member of the party - and this is (a) a breach of employment law (b) sexual harassment and (c) deeply deeply unpleasant.0 -
AV's an awful system. It can lead to loneliness, depression, and Ed Miliband.
For those interested, a brief piece about why polygraphs are rubbish (been meaning to write it since I started my blog, but the use of one in Supermodels of SHIELD reminded me): http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html0 -
Compared to their last poll (Nov) this poll actually shows an increase for yes!SeanT said:
I think they have indeed extrapolated a trend by wrongly comparing different pollsters, however a trend exists:.CarlottaVance said:
I would be wary of MoS poll reporting - they frequently compare polls from different companies - the absolute numbers are probably ok, but any "trend" should be treated with caution.SeanT said:Better Together @UK_Together 40m
NEW POLL Sunday Mail Yougov poll for Progressive has NO lead growing by 6 points. YES 34% NO 54% #indyref pic.twitter.com/5plBNJXukG
Once the Don’t Knows were excluded, the poll in September put Yes on 31% and the one in November on 33%. Both polls represented a lower Yes tally than recorded by any other poll conducted at around the same time.
So we should not be surprised that in its third outing, after a gap of nearly six months, the company (for the Sunday Mail) should have once again produced a relatively low Yes vote. It puts Yes on 34%, twenty points behind No on 54%. Once the Don’t Knows are excluded this represents a Yes vote of 39% – the lowest in any poll since the end of February.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/progressive-big-swing-to-yes-but-yes-still-far-behind/
I wouldn't read too much into the third of a pollster's polls.
Has the YeSNP momentum slowed? Possibly - but since that's also what I'd wish for, I'm reluctant to diagnose it.0 -
I'm sure that is right. The referendum would be the key item for the Tories in any coalition negotiations and at the end of the day the LDs would agree.GIN1138 said:
I wonder whether Dave and Nick have already had discussions about what it would take for the Lib-Dems to agree to an IN/OUT?Easterross said:David Cameron makes clear he will not be PM if he cannot guarantee an In-Out Referendum after next GE
0 -
Don't mention this, you'll upset the PB Tories.Mike Smithson said:Only three years ago the Conservatives were the biggest backer of the status quo in the AV referendum.
Shows how worthless an EU referendum would be under Cameron.
Happy Birthday anyway, Mike.0 -
"deeply, deeply unpleasant" ?Charles said:
I'm always wary of reaching conclusions based on a Mail story ;-)isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
However - if true - this is far far more important than the crap stories that people post about "random UKIP candidate says something vaguely nasty".
Helmer is a senior member of the party - and this is (a) a breach of employment law (b) sexual harassment and (c) deeply deeply unpleasant.
What>? Going for a beer in a strip bar?
Honestly, I know Conservatives are desperate for UKIP to fail and I can understand why, but you are sounding like Loony lefties with your faux outrage and rules and regs
They went for a beer after work and ended up in a seedy dive, shit happens.
0 -
Frankly I don't see how they could refuse it: the optics of preventing the British people from having a vote would be absolutely terrible.MikeSmithson said:
I'm sure that is right. The referendum would be the key item for the Tories in any coalition negotiations and at the end of the day the LDs would agree.GIN1138 said:
I wonder whether Dave and Nick have already had discussions about what it would take for the Lib-Dems to agree to an IN/OUT?Easterross said:David Cameron makes clear he will not be PM if he cannot guarantee an In-Out Referendum after next GE
The trick is how to extract the maximum price for a concession they will ultimately make.0 -
Why wouldn't it?isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
So you think the article is a lie?
You don't think that what is alleged is an issue?
Another reason?
Genuinely interested in your mind set over issues like this, that for an NO of any other party would be seen as a real problem.0 -
Of course not, but it might make potential UKIP voters (both significantly more important and numerous) who read it in the Sunday Mail think that this "different from all the others" political party, isn't so different after all.isam said:
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
Continued UKIP sensitivity to scrutiny of their candidates (something Con & Lab have learned to live with) is however noted.
0 -
My argument is entirely based on Alexandra Swann's account - which clearly Helmer denies. Who knows what the truth is.isam said:
"deeply, deeply unpleasant" ?Charles said:
I'm always wary of reaching conclusions based on a Mail story ;-)isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
However - if true - this is far far more important than the crap stories that people post about "random UKIP candidate says something vaguely nasty".
Helmer is a senior member of the party - and this is (a) a breach of employment law (b) sexual harassment and (c) deeply deeply unpleasant.
What>? Going for a beer in a strip bar?
Honestly, I know Conservatives are desperate for UKIP to fail and I can understand why, but you are sounding like Loony lefties with your faux outrage and rules and regs
They went for a beer after work and ended up in a seedy dive, shit happens.
If she is correct, that she felt that she had to go because of a threat to her job/career then that is disgraceful.
It would be a sacking offence at any of the firms that I have worked at.0 -
F1: apparently it rained overnight, so the track will be greener, diminishing the advantage of those on the clean side of the track. Probably won't make a huge difference, to be honest.
Edited extra bit: I did check the forecasts for the race, and it's likely to be dry throughout.0 -
So I see that none of the Conservative cheerleaders are able to explain what 'For real change in Europe' actually means.
Nor why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change in Europe'.
0 -
The key aspect of the referendum in any coalition negotiations is that it would make a deal easier for CON back-benchers to swallow.Charles said:
Frankly I don't see how they could refuse it: the optics of preventing the British people from having a vote would be absolutely terrible.MikeSmithson said:
I'm sure that is right. The referendum would be the key item for the Tories in any coalition negotiations and at the end of the day the LDs would agree.GIN1138 said:
I wonder whether Dave and Nick have already had discussions about what it would take for the Lib-Dems to agree to an IN/OUT?Easterross said:David Cameron makes clear he will not be PM if he cannot guarantee an In-Out Referendum after next GE
The trick is how to extract the maximum price for a concession they will ultimately make.
0 -
So. Mike you admit that the argument used by the LDs to scupper boundary changes which was House of. LEDs reform was a lie?0
-
Different boundaries.GIN1138 said:
Tony Blair would have had a decent go at winning Newark 94-97. Indeed, he DID win it 1997.david_herdson said:
He'd be being too clever for his own good. Does he really think it's a good idea allowing a party that lost its deposit finishing fourth last time, almost 20% behind Labour to overtake them? Newark was always going to be a tough take for Labour but if their own vote share drops, what message does that give to other Labour target seats where they might stand a decent chance?Iggypop37 said:anyone see the indy this morning. If it is true Miliband being very wily in giving the kippers more or less an easy run in Newark. Could cause Cameron a lot of issues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html.
Having said that, Eastleigh was once a target seat for Labour.
At the 1980s by-election, Labour were predicting they would win it, based on the national opinion polls at the time.
0 -
Mr. Richard, the Morris Dancer Party will commit to real change in Europe, beginning with the invasion of France.0
-
Interesting point.isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
I have used the idea of innoculation of public opinion to describe the effect of these stories on UKIP support.
Now, what this means is this tactic won't work at the GE, when it really matters. They've wasted it on the Euro elections, a grandiose by-election.0 -
The main reason is that many non PC people just don't care about stuff like this enoughsaddened said:
Why wouldn't it?isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
So you think the article is a lie?
You don't think that what is alleged is an issue?
Another reason?
Genuinely interested in your mind set over issues like this, that for an NO of any other party would be seen as a real problem.
They went to a bar where there were strippers, so what? Its not like she was 15
I am not saying its something I would do myself, I just don't think your average bloke down the pub, where UKIP supporters seem to be drawn from, would bat an eyelid at something like this.0 -
Real change in Europe = (a) renegotiation of the terms of our relationship followed by an in/out referendum and (b) fighting for the UK's interests rather than rolling over as Labour too often does or not engaging as UKIP doesanother_richard said:So I see that none of the Conservative cheerleaders are able to explain what 'For real change in Europe' actually means.
Nor why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change in Europe'.
Why haven't they achieved it yet? On (a) because it is a project for the next parliament and (b) because they are in a minority int he European Parliament, but they can and do make plenty of incremental changes that are a positive0 -
I'd put it stronger than that: they wouldn't accept a coalition agreement without a referendum. Cameron has pledged to seek their approval (but don't know how binding that is) - but in any even if he didn't seek their approval and they didn't like the deal he'd be defenestrated in short orderMikeSmithson said:
The key aspect of the referendum in any coalition negotiations is that it would make a deal easier for CON back-benchers to swallow.Charles said:
Frankly I don't see how they could refuse it: the optics of preventing the British people from having a vote would be absolutely terrible.MikeSmithson said:
I'm sure that is right. The referendum would be the key item for the Tories in any coalition negotiations and at the end of the day the LDs would agree.GIN1138 said:
I wonder whether Dave and Nick have already had discussions about what it would take for the Lib-Dems to agree to an IN/OUT?Easterross said:David Cameron makes clear he will not be PM if he cannot guarantee an In-Out Referendum after next GE
The trick is how to extract the maximum price for a concession they will ultimately make.0 -
I don't think this was the Mail "digging on" Mr Helmer (he's too obscure a figure). This seems to have been Ms Swann approaching the Mail with a story.CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
http://www.alexandraswann.co.uk/2014/05/1272/0 -
Scotland will vote no. Indepence votes are overwhelming, like Crimea, not close run. A close run vote that was yes has sad consequences and questionable legitimacy.
The interesting element will be the reaction to no, devo-max with the neutering of labour in England? Don't count on it with Osbourne, the master strategist, determining affairs.0 -
You're completely missing the point.isam said:
The main reason is that many non PC people just don't care about stuff like this enoughsaddened said:
Why wouldn't it?isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
So you think the article is a lie?
You don't think that what is alleged is an issue?
Another reason?
Genuinely interested in your mind set over issues like this, that for an NO of any other party would be seen as a real problem.
They went to a bar where there were strippers, so what? Its not like she was 15
I am not saying its something I would do myself, I just don't think your average bloke down the pub, where UKIP supporters seem to be drawn from, would bat an eyelid at something like this.
It's not going to a strip club. It's that she felt she *had* to go because otherwise it would damage her career.
That's as bad as groping junior staff who don't want to complain because they may lose their jobs.
It's all about *attitude* and abuse of power.0 -
I wasn't convinced by either side in the AV referendum. I voted to keep FPTP not because I like it but because I dislike AV even more. I'd jump at the chance to vote for some kind of genuine PR.0
-
Has Prof Curtice made a mistake or has someone been economical with the truth or using misleading headline there. So both Scottp and his twin SeanT now trying to mislead or are mentally confused.SeanT said:Better Together @UK_Together 40m
NEW POLL Sunday Mail Yougov poll for Progressive has NO lead growing by 6 points. YES 34% NO 54% #indyref pic.twitter.com/5plBNJXukG
Prof Curtice highlights it slightly differently.
Progressive: Big Swing to Yes but Yes Still Far Behind!
Until now, Progressive Scottish Opinion had conducted only a couple of polls of voting intentions in the referendum – one last September, on the occasion of a year to go to polling day, and one at the very end of November, immediately after the publication of the Scottish Government’s White Paper. Even so, those two polls were enough to suggest that the company was amongst the more pessimistic of the pollsters so far as the Yes side was concerned.
Once the Don’t Knows were excluded, the poll in September put Yes on 31% and the one in November on 33%. Both polls represented a lower Yes tally than recorded by any other poll conducted at around the same time.
So we should not be surprised that in its third outing, after a gap of nearly six months, the company (for the Sunday Mail) should have once again produced a relatively low Yes vote. It puts Yes on 34%, twenty points behind No on 54%. Once the Don’t Knows are excluded this represents a Yes vote of 39% – the lowest in any poll since the end of February.
Yet at the same time, this also means that the poll shows a six point swing to Yes compared with last November. Since then, of course, every other pollster has recorded a narrowing of the No lead. To that extent today’s poll is simply further evidence of that narrowing.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/progressive-big-swing-to-yes-but-yes-still-far-behind/0 -
Not t all.CarlottaVance said:
Of course not, but it might make potential UKIP voters (both significantly more important and numerous) who read it in the Sunday Mail think that this "different from all the others" political party, isn't so different after all.isam said:
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
Continued UKIP sensitivity to scrutiny of their candidates (something Con & Lab have learned to live with) is however noted.
I am just saying that the type of person that is attracted to voting UKIP, in the main doesn't bat an eyelid at this kind of stuff..
"Old bloke takes young assistant to strip bar"... so what?
If it was that he had sexually assaulted her in some way, of course that would be completely different
You only have to look at the other "terrible stories" that have emerged about UKIP members, even Farage and his "allowances", over the last month, and the lack of impact they have, to see that these things don't hamper UKIP in the way they might other parties
Its like bowling bouncers to a batsman because it worked against other batsman, then wondering why they keep getting hit for six.. then bowling another bouncer
I voted Labour at the last election, am a relatively new convert to UKIP... these stories barely register, and I am a political anorak. But most important, it doesn't even make me consider not voting for them.0 -
I think Dave is in a bit of trouble here.
Its not surprising. He's an imposter.
No conservative would dream of proposing that an organ of state like HRMC to run riot unchecked with the bank accounts of ordinary citizens.
0 -
I disagree. Just because it is psychological not physical that doesn't make it not bullying.SeanT said:
Total tripe. Taking someone to a strip bar, however reprehensible, is NOT the same as sexually assaulting them. You are insulting victims of real sexual abuse.Charles said:
You're completely missing the point.isam said:
The main reason is that many non PC people just don't care about stuff like this enoughsaddened said:
Why wouldn't it?isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
So you think the article is a lie?
You don't think that what is alleged is an issue?
Another reason?
Genuinely interested in your mind set over issues like this, that for an NO of any other party would be seen as a real problem.
They went to a bar where there were strippers, so what? Its not like she was 15
I am not saying its something I would do myself, I just don't think your average bloke down the pub, where UKIP supporters seem to be drawn from, would bat an eyelid at something like this.
It's not going to a strip club. It's that she felt she *had* to go because otherwise it would damage her career.
That's as bad as groping junior staff who don't want to complain because they may lose their jobs.
It's all about *attitude* and abuse of power.0 -
Unless he has had a knock on the head since yesterday he will be of the same opinion as he has been stating for the last year at least , YES will win. Read his posts from yesterday or Friday and hear what is really the position in Scotland, not the wet dreams of some London hack after a liquid lunch.SeanT said:
What's your latest predix for the indyref? I have recovered my composure, somewhat, and I now think NO will win, maybe 56/44. This latest poll is pretty hard evidence that YES has a long way to go. But who knows.Easterross said:Since I am still in a jolly mood after last night's Eurovision here is my 1st prediction for the General Election next year:
Tories 38
Labour 32
LibDem 15
UKIP 10
David Cameron will in effect form a majority government as he will be promised support by the DUP/UUP.
However I am interested in an insider's viewpoint (i.e. a Scot like yourself, but not a Nat).
What's yr hunch right now?0 -
Do you understand how the EU works? MEPs don't make any laws of any relevance in the way domestic MPs do. Most EU laws come from either the Commission or Council of Ministers. MEPs just tinker with clauses etc at the edges. The real policy comes from member governments, all 28 of them. That is why DC needs to renegotiate with his 27 fellow heads of government.another_richard said:So I see that none of the Conservative cheerleaders are able to explain what 'For real change in Europe' actually means.
Nor why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change in Europe'.
0 -
@JGForsyth: Cameron’s 1st class reply 2 Miliband’s intellectual self-confidence boast, ‘I’m sure he worked very hard for his 2:1’ http://t.co/BfhfEvoNxB0
-
The usual meaninglessly vague crap and mealy-mouthed excuses.Charles said:
Real change in Europe = (a) renegotiation of the terms of our relationship followed by an in/out referendum and (b) fighting for the UK's interests rather than rolling over as Labour too often does or not engaging as UKIP doesanother_richard said:So I see that none of the Conservative cheerleaders are able to explain what 'For real change in Europe' actually means.
Nor why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change in Europe'.
Why haven't they achieved it yet? On (a) because it is a project for the next parliament and (b) because they are in a minority int he European Parliament, but they can and do make plenty of incremental changes that are a positive
Perhaps you might like to be more specific as to what 'renegotiation of the terms of our membership' actually means.
0 -
"...washing my hair after a visit to the barber I realised that I wasn’t so much washing my hair as washing my head. The forehead went on forever."
Ouch.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/andrewmcfbrown/100270900/would-politicians-rather-thought-vain-than-bald/0 -
They'd be better off attacking UKIP for their economic innumeracy; it might even be better to simply ignore them.
For many voters, the main parties have not done what it says on the tin.
Labour did many un labour things in government to keep the middle classes on side. The tories are doing some un tory things to keep the liberals in government.
The main parties would all rather be in power than campaign for what they believe in and lose.0 -
And yet 'Lurd Taffie (Fat-[MODERATED]) of ''Ull' shagged his employee and got the English taxpayer to fund her silence-clause! Very dubious to complain about others when Sven's mob legitimised* it...!Charles said:I'm always wary of reaching conclusions based on a Mail story ;-)
However - if true - this is far far more important than the crap stories that people post about "random UKIP candidate says something vaguely nasty".
Helmer is a senior member of the party - and this is (a) a breach of employment law (b) sexual harassment and (c) deeply deeply unpleasant.
* Prostitution in all but name. 'Arriet must be happy-clappy!0 -
Quebec? proves you are talking bollocks and just trollingFalseFlag said:Scotland will vote no. Indepence votes are overwhelming, like Crimea, not close run. A close run vote that was yes has sad consequences and questionable legitimacy.
The interesting element will be the reaction to no, devo-max with the neutering of labour in England? Don't count on it with Osbourne, the master strategist, determining affairs.0 -
That just comes across as arrogant and sneering.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Cameron’s 1st class reply 2 Miliband’s intellectual self-confidence boast, ‘I’m sure he worked very hard for his 2:1’ http://t.co/BfhfEvoNxB
(Admittedly, Miliband's comment was ludicrous in the first place)0 -
Almost all law is now (thankfully, because for a long time it was perverse) initiated by the Commission (like the government in government bills in the UK) and then passed by a tennis match of a procedure between Council and Parliament. Some power does lie in the Parliament, but I agree governmental support is important - but Treaty change isn't needed. Important aspects of regulation, e.g. Directive 2004/38/EC on residence and immigration would not so require.Easterross said:
Do you understand how the EU works? MEPs don't make any laws of any relevance in the way domestic MPs do. Most EU laws come from either the Commission or Council of Ministers. MEPs just tinker with clauses etc at the edges. The real policy comes from member governments, all 28 of them. That is why DC needs to renegotiate with his 27 fellow heads of government.another_richard said:So I see that none of the Conservative cheerleaders are able to explain what 'For real change in Europe' actually means.
Nor why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change in Europe'.
0 -
She is a pathetic brown noser then. If she had any principles or morals she would have told him where to get off and where to stick his career. Too many of these yes sir no sir ar** lickers about nowadays.Charles said:
You're completely missing the point.isam said:
The main reason is that many non PC people just don't care about stuff like this enoughsaddened said:
Why wouldn't it?isam said:CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign
Former UKIP researcher accuses MEP of sacking her after strip club visit
Alexandra Swann said she felt 'deeply uncomfortable' about Roger Helmer's behaviour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html#ixzz31OZ2S4xd
When you post stuff like this, do you really think it is going to put UKIP supporters off voting UKIP?
So you think the article is a lie?
You don't think that what is alleged is an issue?
Another reason?
Genuinely interested in your mind set over issues like this, that for an NO of any other party would be seen as a real problem.
They went to a bar where there were strippers, so what? Its not like she was 15
I am not saying its something I would do myself, I just don't think your average bloke down the pub, where UKIP supporters seem to be drawn from, would bat an eyelid at something like this.
It's not going to a strip club. It's that she felt she *had* to go because otherwise it would damage her career.
That's as bad as groping junior staff who don't want to complain because they may lose their jobs.
It's all about *attitude* and abuse of power.0 -
Not true. In 1979 Scotland voted YES to the devolution on offer but as Callaghan had inserted an artificial threshold of 40%, it was ruled to have failed. This time YES just needs to win by a single vote. The worst possible result is a NO vote with a majority under 5%. That would just result in 5 more years of uncertainty until the next vote.FalseFlag said:Scotland will vote no. Indepence votes are overwhelming, like Crimea, not close run. A close run vote that was yes has sad consequences and questionable legitimacy.
The interesting element will be the reaction to no, devo-max with the neutering of labour in England? Don't count on it with Osbourne, the master strategist, determining affairs.
Sean T has asked my view on how things are going? In the past couple of days I posted a couple of detailed thoughts as to why I believe the pollsters are not reaching most of the YES voters. My greatest worry is that it is getting really nasty and over the summer it is only going to get worse.
0 -
No. Because that would be a crap negotiating strategy.another_richard said:
The usual meaninglessly vague crap and mealy-mouthed excuses.Charles said:
Real change in Europe = (a) renegotiation of the terms of our relationship followed by an in/out referendum and (b) fighting for the UK's interests rather than rolling over as Labour too often does or not engaging as UKIP doesanother_richard said:So I see that none of the Conservative cheerleaders are able to explain what 'For real change in Europe' actually means.
Nor why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change in Europe'.
Why haven't they achieved it yet? On (a) because it is a project for the next parliament and (b) because they are in a minority int he European Parliament, but they can and do make plenty of incremental changes that are a positive
Perhaps you might like to be more specific as to what 'renegotiation of the terms of our membership' actually means.
Cameron has to get in a room and see what he can deliver. And then take it to the principals (the voters) for their decision.
Personally, I'd like to see (a) an opt-out from CAP (b) competence on financial services returned to the UK government (c) restrictions on welfare benefits for EU migrants for a period of time (say 3 years). I'm sure there will be others, but that's just off the top of my head.0 -
That is an interesting piece by a woman who was at the Centre of UKIP and now disillusioned. The culture of mysogyny is not very different politics is it?
Also interesting book review here: http://www.spiked-online.com/review_of_books/article/ukip-the-revolt-of-the-left-behind/15000anotherDave said:
I don't think this was the Mail "digging on" Mr Helmer (he's too obscure a figure). This seems to have been Ms Swann approaching the Mail with a story.CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
http://www.alexandraswann.co.uk/2014/05/1272/0 -
Haven't read the rest of the thread, but if Labour voters are not turning out in safe seats, and for that reason Labour's seat/vote ratio is improved, then I would struggle to describe that result as perverse.0
-
They have always been the lowest of the low and do very few polls. As Prof Curtice , that great unionist , said , it shows the trend to YES continues. Every poll this year has had an increase for YES.SeanT said:
Latest indyref poll:malcolmg said:
Unless he has had a knock on the head since yesterday he will be of the same opinion as he has been stating for the last year at least , YES will win. Read his posts from yesterday or Friday and hear what is really the position in Scotland, not the wet dreams of some London hack after a liquid lunch.SeanT said:
What's your latest predix for the indyref? I have recovered my composure, somewhat, and I now think NO will win, maybe 56/44. This latest poll is pretty hard evidence that YES has a long way to go. But who knows.Easterross said:Since I am still in a jolly mood after last night's Eurovision here is my 1st prediction for the General Election next year:
Tories 38
Labour 32
LibDem 15
UKIP 10
David Cameron will in effect form a majority government as he will be promised support by the DUP/UUP.
However I am interested in an insider's viewpoint (i.e. a Scot like yourself, but not a Nat).
What's yr hunch right now?
YES 34%
NO 54%
20 points behind. I think this calls for a modest...
CHORTLE.
I note you are also emulating Mick Pork by stealing his trade marked "CHORTLE".
It is not the YES camp that are panicking. Where is Alastair Darling , not seen for months, where are labour in Scotland , again nowhere to be seen. All is not well.0 -
What does an optout from the CAP look like? I mean, if we're in a free trade area of agricultural goods, whose French production in being subsidised, then aren't we inextricably linked with it anyway?Charles said:
No. Because that would be a crap negotiating strategy.another_richard said:
The usual meaninglessly vague crap and mealy-mouthed excuses.Charles said:
Real change in Europe = (a) renegotiation of the terms of our relationship followed by an in/out referendum and (b) fighting for the UK's interests rather than rolling over as Labour too often does or not engaging as UKIP doesanother_richard said:So I see that none of the Conservative cheerleaders are able to explain what 'For real change in Europe' actually means.
Nor why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change in Europe'.
Why haven't they achieved it yet? On (a) because it is a project for the next parliament and (b) because they are in a minority int he European Parliament, but they can and do make plenty of incremental changes that are a positive
Perhaps you might like to be more specific as to what 'renegotiation of the terms of our membership' actually means.
Cameron has to get in a room and see what he can deliver. And then take it to the principals (the voters) for their decision.
Personally, I'd like to see (a) an opt-out from CAP (b) competence on financial services returned to the UK government (c) restrictions on welfare benefits for EU migrants for a period of time (say 3 years). I'm sure there will be others, but that's just off the top of my head.0 -
Charles , that describes Scott to a tee, though I doubt he understood what 2:1 meant.Charles said:
That just comes across as arrogant and sneering.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Cameron’s 1st class reply 2 Miliband’s intellectual self-confidence boast, ‘I’m sure he worked very hard for his 2:1’ http://t.co/BfhfEvoNxB
(Admittedly, Miliband's comment was ludicrous in the first place)0 -
Trouble at t'mill:
Lib Dems accused of 'smearing' David Cameron's marriage and spreading lies that it is 'in trouble' in vicious feud which threatens to wreck the Coalition
Conservatives angry over Liberal Democrat rumours that the Prime Minister's marriage is 'on the rocks'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625379/Coaliting-feud-hits-vicious-new-low-Lib-Dems-smear-PMs-marriage.html0 -
"Mention the [Labour PEB] broadcast to senior Labour figures and reactions vary from a shake of the head to nervous laughter.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Cameron’s 1st class reply 2 Miliband’s intellectual self-confidence boast, ‘I’m sure he worked very hard for his 2:1’ http://t.co/BfhfEvoNxB
Their defence is that the leadership had to reassure the party it was fighting the Lib Dems and not preparing for a coalition."
0 -
Without judging the specific case, I don't agree at all - you're not in the real world where people worry about their jobs and the availability of alternatives. I'm a confident bloke with at least three career options but in the unimaginable event that my boss suggested visiting somewhere I'd never heard of that might conceivably be dodgy, I would be very unlikely to take the line that you suggest. To expect it of a young woman assistant is ridiculous.malcolmg said:
She is a pathetic brown noser then. If she had any principles or morals she would have told him where to get off and where to stick his career. Too many of these yes sir no sir ar** lickers about nowadays.
0 -
Which is why it was axed from his PMQ responses.......Charles said:
That just comes across as arrogant and sneering.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Cameron’s 1st class reply 2 Miliband’s intellectual self-confidence boast, ‘I’m sure he worked very hard for his 2:1’ http://t.co/BfhfEvoNxB
(Admittedly, Miliband's comment was ludicrous in the first place)
0 -
None of the surveys seem plausible to me.
I think the UKIP factor means the ground is shifting very fast, and the polls are struggling to reflect that.0 -
Just a point of clarification, Malcolm is incorrect. In the past week alone I have seen more than 50 photos on Twitter of Tory, Labour or LibDem politicians and activists out promoting Better Together. Indeed Murdo Fraser has shared a platform with Labour and LibDem MSPs in 3 or 4 hustings in the past week alone. There is some cross-party shared campaigning but there is no doubt Gordon Brown seriously holed the Better Together campaign below the waterline because of his pathological hatred of all things Tory.0
-
The latest SINDYRef poll does affect the What Scotland Thinks "Poll of Polls" - showing the gap widening, after steadily closing;
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Slide11.jpg0 -
Such a result would by delivered by an ENP (Effective number of Parties) of 4.2.
As predicted, when ENP rises above 4, FPTP... implodes.
We would join Grenada, Bhutan, Monaco, Singapore and a couple of other tinpot places as having the most disproportional election results in the world.
A quasi-democracy, at best...
No other large, mature 'democracy' has ever suffered such a freakish election outcome.
We would be a laughing-stock.0 -
That is a good piece. Many thanks for pointing it out.foxinsoxuk said:
Also interesting book review here: http://www.spiked-online.com/review_of_books/article/ukip-the-revolt-of-the-left-behind/15000anotherDave said:
I don't think this was the Mail "digging on" Mr Helmer (he's too obscure a figure). This seems to have been Ms Swann approaching the Mail with a story.CarlottaVance said:
Especially since the tabloids have started digging on Helmer:Easterross said:Interesting that Labour isn't going to try in a constituency it won in 1997. Hardly the actions of a party sure of winning next year. Tories will also be able to truthfully claim a vote for UKIP helps Labour since Labour is trying to help Roger Helmer win.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html
http://www.alexandraswann.co.uk/2014/05/1272/
0 -
Would you like to make a prediction for the local elections result?taffys said:None of the surveys seem plausible to me.
I think the UKIP factor means the ground is shifting very fast, and the polls are struggling to reflect that.
0 -
I doubt he understood what 2:1 meant.malcolmg said:
Charles , that describes Scott to a tee, though I doubt he understood what 2:1 meant.Charles said:
That just comes across as arrogant and sneering.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Cameron’s 1st class reply 2 Miliband’s intellectual self-confidence boast, ‘I’m sure he worked very hard for his 2:1’ http://t.co/BfhfEvoNxB
(Admittedly, Miliband's comment was ludicrous in the first place)
That wouldn't be "arrogant and sneering" by any chance, would it?0
