politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson pours cold water on the idea of a early end to the shu
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The pope asks politicians to seek "the good of the country and not that of his party": Pope Francis has asked the political parties of the different countries this Monday "to seek together for the good of the world at this time of pandemic country and not the good of his own party ", during the mass that he celebrates daily in the chapel of his residence, the Casa Santa Marta.
"Let us pray today for the men and women who have a political vocation: politics is a high form of charity. For the political parties of the different countries, so that at this time of pandemic they seek together the good of the country and not the good of its own party, "he said
Wise words1 -
Is Sweden really a fair comparator to the UK in terms of population density and distribution, social customs and norms, age distribution... I really doubt if you can learn that much. Belgium would be much closer....rottenborough said:Times:
"Mr Johnson is concerned that relatively little is known about the effect that easing individual restrictions could have on the transmission rate."
Er, Sweden?0 -
Every sympathy, Ms Cyclefree. I was wondering about your daughter only a day or so ago; hadn't seen a post from you, so it got me thinking.Cyclefree said:
On a personal level in terms of my daily life I am fine. The weather is lovely, I have great views and lots of countryside to walk in and I have close family around to do shopping etc. I have a routine to avoid the slumping in front of the TV issue.NickPalmer said:The Government could do with some detailed (telephone) polls on how people are actually coping - Casino and others are suggesting rampant depression, but is there evidence for this? Anecdotally in my circle, people see it as a nuisance but infrequently more than that in terms of mental distress, and are far more worried about the lockdown being released too soon. Financial worries may change that in due course.
We do have one advantage from having entered lockdown late - we get to see what happens in countries that relax it in different ways - small shops in Austria, schools in Denmark, etc.
But I worry about:-
(1) finances the longer this goes on;
(2) my daughter and her business - this is a very big worry for me;
(3) not seeing my sons and their employment prospects and general state of mind. It is very hard for them having to stay in and not be able to see friends etc or do anything worthwhile about employment / travel / other plans etc. One son has a history of serious anxiety disorders and if that were to happen again I would be out of my mind with worry for him - and his brother - and would do whatever it takes to help, even at the risk to my own life. So far he seems to be coping - fingers crossed;
(4) the prospect of having to stay shielded for a long while. I like to be up and about and doing stuff. Having an extended quasi-holiday over the spring/summer months is one thing. Doing so for 2 years with no income and no ability to help my children would be intolerable.
Everyone will have their own issues. There are no easy answers. But destroying the future for my children is too much. If I have to retreat and keep myself hidden away to allow my children to have a life and a future then I will do that and take the risk. I appreciate that the balance for others will be different and that what is right for individuals may not be right for the country as a whole.
As one who relies on pension income... State plus works ...... I feel secure but my investments don't seem at the moment to be doing so well. We're not touching those, but one son may need them when we no longer need that cushion.
I'm also not convinced that our pensions can go on doing as well if the general level of commercial activity declines.0 -
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We need to watch carefully and learn from these experiments, both the good and the bad.felix said:The Spanish plan of easing is moving to allow the regions less affected to ease the lockdown first. My region of Andalucia could well be first but even within the Community - the least affected provinces will move first. I believe my own province will be among those as we have extremely low figures. The key of course will be then to police movement between areas. Spain is a large country and in my own province it is relatively easy to limit ingress and egress. Nevertheless, although easing soon will be welcome we atre all pretty nervous about our future safety. The easing will almost certainly exclude most aspects of tourism until August for sure and probably for the rest of the year. Fascinating times.
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Fair to say John Pilger is not a Jeremy Hunt fan
https://twitter.com/johnpilger/status/1252107214396854272?s=200 -
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That statement is syrely meaningless without a precise definition of 'profit'.Andy_Cooke said:
Slight drawback to that first suggestion of yours: any non-monopolistic, non-gouging, non-rent-seeking company would be screwed, no matter how honest they've been.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
I was always taught that profit margins of 3% (for manufacturing) and 4% (for services) were about par. Above that, and they're doing something funky (maybe they are incredibly efficient (so why isn't everyone copying them?), or maybe they've got a dedicated band of customers who they can gouge at will, or maybe they're monopolistic, or dodgy). So, say you're at that level and you spend nothing on growth or paying down debt. You pay the full 20% on your profits. After three years, you've paid 1.8%-2.4% of your turnover on tax, so that's the limit of what you'd allow them.
That's 6 to 9 days of turnover.
The richest companies, and the most monopolistic and gouging and rent-seeking - they'd be fine, though. Those who have the least markup for their customers: bye-bye.
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Mr B,
If you want to wear a mask, do so. But be aware it isn't much help if you contaminate your hands when you take it off, or when you touch your face, which you will do. It will give you a feeling of confidence, and therein lies the potential problem.
As I say, I'm cynical, and I may be wrong.0 -
Of course it is, the government has 4 years of its term left and makes the laws for the UKDura_Ace said:
It's not going to be up to your beloved government soon. People have had enough. My mother (aged 81¼) has said, and I use her exact words, 'balls to it.'HYUFD said:Until we get mass testing expanded sufficiently then ending the lockdown is not an option
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Of course the media do not recognise this. At all.HYUFD said:1 -
You can compare Sweden to its neighbours and then ask whether we, if we went Swedish, would be as much worse than say France as Sweden is than Norway. A grim thought.felix said:
Is Sweden really a fair comparator to the UK in terms of population density and distribution, social customs and norms, age distribution... I really doubt if you can learn that much. Belgium would be much closer....rottenborough said:Times:
"Mr Johnson is concerned that relatively little is known about the effect that easing individual restrictions could have on the transmission rate."
Er, Sweden?2 -
The Daily Mirror supported Corbyn *innocent face*FF43 said:
Maybe it's the suspicion that the DM would still be supporting the black shirts if they were around now?ydoethur said:
It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.Alistair said:
Hurrah for the BlackshirtsMarqueeMark said:
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....3 -
The other things I find odd are these. It’s all very well worrying about lockdowns but at the same time we are allowing people to fly into the country, not just into Heathrow but via private planes, with no controls at all. And we’re discharging people into care homes thus increasing the risks for the most vulnerable - a point repeatedly made by @Nigelb.
Stopping people going to restaurants seems pretty pointless if we don’t do something about these sources of transmission. The latter policy seems criminally negligent to me and the first is both daft and completely out of line with what other countries are doing. Why should small businesses here suffer while rich people with private jets get to swan into the country unhindered?3 -
A nice rebuff to the endless stupid whining about the Government's response.HYUFD said:3 -
So - headline on Telegraph live updates
Ambulance manager who worked for NHS for 33 years dies with Covid-19
The impression I got from the headline was that this was another NHS worker who potentially contracted disease in the course of their work
I then read down the page
A retired NHS pharmacist has died after contracting Covid-19 while on a cruise ship.
Bruce Hammond, who ran pharmacies in Leeds died from coronavirus on April 6 aged 89.
Mr Hammond and his wife Angela were both admitted to hospital suffering from Covid-19 on returning home after a Caribbean cruise.
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Or the Guardian having as one of its main columnists a man who supported Stalin. The tolerance of those who supported or excused the crimes of Communism is both baffling and morally repellent.ydoethur said:
The Daily Mirror supported Corbyn *innocent face*FF43 said:
Maybe it's the suspicion that the DM would still be supporting the black shirts if they were around now?ydoethur said:
It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.Alistair said:
Hurrah for the BlackshirtsMarqueeMark said:
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....5 -
That was a complaint made in the "rebuttal". That infectivity is irrelevant without also discussing morbidity (and therefore the ST was being sloppy). Ferguson's report also contained morbidity so the complaint is disingenuous.rkrkrk said:
It looks to me like their defence is weakest on:AlastairMeeks said:
Notable for its distinct lack of denials of many of the substantive claims. The general tone is "we were taking it very seriously so of course the Prime Minister had nothing to do with it." I'm not sure that helps the government's defence.Gadfly said:Comprehensive Government response to yesterday's Sunday Times article...
https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/
a) exercise cygnus planning
b) PPE stocks and preparation
As an aside - it was really sloppy of the Times writer to say "Imperial’s Ferguson was already working on his own estimate — putting infectivity at 2.6 and possibly as high as 3.5 — which he sent to ministers and officials in a report on the day of the Cobra meeting on January 24. The Spanish flu had an estimated infectivity rate of between 2.0 and 3.0, so Ferguson’s finding was shocking."
The rebuttal's key arguments seem to be that there was no scientific consensus on seriousness at the time and also that they were strictly following scientific advice. Those arguments are somewhat contradictory. For the ST claims to stand that the government failed to act in the light of a credible threat, there doesn't need to be a full consensus. The rebuttal's claim that the government did take it seriously is very half-hearted. Most of the other points in the rebuttal are very pedantic and don't address the impression of Johnson's government fiddling while the UK burns.
I did learn one thing from the rebuttal. Apparently the threat level only refers to what's happening now and not what's coming up. As people weren't dropping like flies in February, the threat level was set at "low". This astonishes me, but if so, it lets the committees off the hook a little bit.
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The Brexit Party?squareroot2 said:0 -
You're not understanding my point.CD13 said:Mr B,
If you want to wear a mask, do so. But be aware it isn't much help if you contaminate your hands when you take it off, or when you touch your face, which you will do. It will give you a feeling of confidence, and therein lies the potential problem.
As I say, I'm cynical, and I may be wrong.
If I wear a mask, it's mainly for my own protection, and I'm quite aware of how to handle it.
If everyone wears masks, irrespective of whether they follow any particular procedure, it would significantly reduce transmission (particularly in enclosed spaces), as it would greatly reduce the amount of aerosol generated.1 -
I'd be more general. Until we have more knowledge, the lockdown buys us time.HYUFD said:Until we get mass testing expanded sufficiently then ending the lockdown is not an option
- What is the actual R0?
- What methods are best for reducing Rt below 1 with least impact on the rest of us?
- What is the true IFR?
- What treatments are best?
- Do infection-caused antibodies provide immunity, and if so, for how long?
- Will a reliable vaccine be produced?
- If so, when?
- Who has it, and how can we rapidly and reliably mass-test for it?
Get answers to these, and we can work out a solution.
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A good question. It could be argued that China did well at compliance, because of cultural reasons and the fact that the army were using live rounds against people.kle4 said:
Has there been notably better compliance in places with the army out on the streets? Genuine question.Sandpit said:
The U.K. lockdown is not as strict as measures imposed in many other countries, who are not allowing any leaving of the house except to buy groceries or medicines, and have police and even army on the streets enforcing the measures.JohnLilburne said:
Well, that's mixed. We haven't (mostly) closed parks and forests and my local market is certainly still operating.Casino_Royale said:
Really? From BBC news:alex_ said:
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”
In my part of the world it's mostly police doing the policing, and compliance is high. They've set the many speed cameras to zero, so anyone driving around is going to get caught and the fines are very high ($3k) for being out in public without permission. Army are around, but they seem to be mostly blocking road junctions and helping with logistics issues.
I've not left my apartment for three weeks now, wife has been out twice to go shopping in that time.0 -
my ukranian table tennis tip of the day.
setka cup women 15:10
yuliya orobinskaya v tatyana yaroshenko
cant find any form for YO and she's a big price to win her other two matches today but 365 offering 9/4 on TY. I'd be more like 4/11.
DYOR.0 -
New Zealand planning to ease lockdown in a week's time. They went into lockdown with under 150 cases and no deaths - impressively early.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/new-zealand-plans-to-ease-coronavirus-lockdown-in-a-week0 -
All fair pointsCyclefree said:The other things I find odd are these. It’s all very well worrying about lockdowns but at the same time we are allowing people to fly into the country, not just into Heathrow but via private planes, with no controls at all. And we’re discharging people into care homes thus increasing the risks for the most vulnerable - a point repeatedly made by @Nigelb.
Stopping people going to restaurants seems pretty pointless if we don’t do something about these sources of transmission. The latter policy seems criminally negligent to me and the first is both daft and completely out of line with what other countries are doing. Why should small businesses here suffer while rich people with private jets get to swan into the country unhindered?
A comment was made to me that the ultra rich are using their private jets to look for safe havens
Not sure we would currently be classed as a safe haven TBH0 -
If you take a second order of derivate of the data, and right censor the data and stick a polynomial trend line through that then it is clearly flattening.FF43 said:London seeing more than twice the normal number of deaths, from any cause.
https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/12506629024256819201 -
Most countries have either as much CV as us, or less. There seems little point restricting entry. On entry, they are subject to the same lockdown rules as the rest of us.Cyclefree said:The other things I find odd are these. It’s all very well worrying about lockdowns but at the same time we are allowing people to fly into the country, not just into Heathrow but via private planes, with no controls at all. And we’re discharging people into care homes thus increasing the risks for the most vulnerable - a point repeatedly made by @Nigelb.
Stopping people going to restaurants seems pretty pointless if we don’t do something about these sources of transmission. The latter policy seems criminally negligent to me and the first is both daft and completely out of line with what other countries are doing. Why should small businesses here suffer while rich people with private jets get to swan into the country unhindered?
With care homes, I suspect it's a proxy for discharging to home, where people can't go home. They should of course be discharged to a fever hospital. Not sure we've set any up yet (maybe one wing of the Nightingale hospitals should be for convalescents?). We are not really geared up for major infectious diseases in the 21st century, but going forward anyone suspected of having CV should surely be kept out of the general medical service as far as possible.2 -
I have a feeling that, some years ago, I met Bruce Hammond.Floater said:So - headline on Telegraph live updates
Ambulance manager who worked for NHS for 33 years dies with Covid-19
The impression I got from the headline was that this was another NHS worker who potentially contracted disease in the course of their work
I then read down the page
A retired NHS pharmacist has died after contracting Covid-19 while on a cruise ship.
Bruce Hammond, who ran pharmacies in Leeds died from coronavirus on April 6 aged 89.
Mr Hammond and his wife Angela were both admitted to hospital suffering from Covid-19 on returning home after a Caribbean cruise.0 -
Saturday 7 March: 10 Premier League matches and Boris at the England vs Wales game at Twickerskle4 said:
One specific measure, that is interesting and thank you. But in general terms Youd still have had a dozen tweets up in an instant showing people ranting about the government not listening to experts, about Boris thinking he knows things he doesnt and bluffing his way through, and hoe reckless that was.Scott_xP said:
I would absolutely have supported cancelling the Cheltenham Festival. I declined to attend for the first time in yearskle4 said:To an extent they are, but would you have supported them doing otherwise? I think not.
Sunday 8 March: Two Premier League matches
Monday 9 March: One Premier League match
Tuesday 10 March: Cheltenham starts
Funny how all the attention is on Cheltenham, from Downing Street's useful idiots in the media. Can't think why.0 -
There was a story a couple of weeks ago about a group of people who chartered a plane to fly from the UK to the south of France. They got refused admission by the French authorities and had to go back to the UK. They weren't UK nationals.Floater said:
All fair pointsCyclefree said:The other things I find odd are these. It’s all very well worrying about lockdowns but at the same time we are allowing people to fly into the country, not just into Heathrow but via private planes, with no controls at all. And we’re discharging people into care homes thus increasing the risks for the most vulnerable - a point repeatedly made by @Nigelb.
Stopping people going to restaurants seems pretty pointless if we don’t do something about these sources of transmission. The latter policy seems criminally negligent to me and the first is both daft and completely out of line with what other countries are doing. Why should small businesses here suffer while rich people with private jets get to swan into the country unhindered?
A comment was made to me that the ultra rich are using their private jets to look for safe havens
Not sure we would currently be classed as a safe haven TBH
https://simpleflying.com/private-jet-holidaymakers-from-britain-refused-entry-to-france/0 -
Not really. During a crisis, people want the government to succeed and incline toward supporting it. If there is any punishment to be deserved, it will be meted out afterwards.BluestBlue said:
A nice rebuff to the endless stupid whining about the Government's response.HYUFD said:2 -
Good morning
Have received an e mail from British Airways cancelling our flights to Vancouver on the 12th May and return on the 25th May. They direct me to their website for a voucher or refund and provide a telephone number. Their website only processes a voucher and requires you to telephone for the refund. Needless to say it is impossible to get through and to be honest this strikes me as sharp practice. The website should have the two options of voucher or refund, which of course would reduce the phone calls enormously. They are in effect using us to control their cash flows and, while understandable, is just wrong
However the good news is that we will be refunded all our travel costs including train to heathrow and premier inn at terminal 4, (both have already refunded) and we were able to cancel the holiday inn in North Vancouver free of charge.
In addition we have had our travel insurance refunded apart from a fair adminstration fee
So we have been fortunate to recover virtually all our costs without even trying to use our insurance policy2 -
Morning all. A weekend largely away from PB clearing my head via the medium of painting the kitchen.rottenborough said:
When I did go out it was noticeable that traffic levels were higher. Still a long way from normal, but the "no people or cars is everyone dead" vibe has gone. As is so often the case I think we saw a pretty rapid adoption of the lockdown and a slow bleed off as people say balls to it and resume limited activities they had stopped at the beginning.
CV19 is here. We can't cure it yet. We may not be able to cure it for a good while. We can't / won't sit and wait for a cure, so life will resume with some restrictions on what is advisable / acceptable.0 -
How did you pay? If you paid by credit card, enlist the credit card company's help with BA.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Have received an e mail from British Airways cancelling our flights to Vancouver on the 12th May and return on the 25th May. They direct me to their website for a voucher or refund and provide a telephone number. Their website only processes a voucher and requires you to telephone for the refund. Needless to say it is impossible to get through and to be honest this strikes me as sharp practice. The website should have the two options of voucher or refund, which of course would reduce the phone calls enormously.
They are in effect using us to control their cash flows and, while understandable, is just wrong
However the good news is that we will be refunded all our travel costs including train to heathrow and premier inn at terminal 4, (both have already refunded) and we were able to cancel the holiday inn in North Vancouver free of charge.
In addition we have had our travel insurance refunded apart from a fair adminstration fee
So we have been fortunate to recover virtually all our costs without even trying to use our insurance policy0 -
Not that unreasonable though smaller - three big cities, a bunch of medium-sized towns, and lots of villages with some open space in the north. Social customs reasonably similar in many ways - not big huggers like Italy. More of a "civic sense" than the UK, maybe - not doing stuff because it damages the environment is more rigidly adhered to. You never get an exact match but it's more like Britain than most.felix said:
Is Sweden really a fair comparator to the UK in terms of population density and distribution, social customs and norms, age distribution... I really doubt if you can learn that much. Belgium would be much closer....rottenborough said:Times:
"Mr Johnson is concerned that relatively little is known about the effect that easing individual restrictions could have on the transmission rate."
Er, Sweden?
Not sure what that tells us though. Their relatively relaxed policy has led to higher death rate, though not a wildly escalating one, so one can read it either way.1 -
it's a 4-day-old tweet showing a big increase in deaths in London compared to the very long term trend.Alistair said:
If you take a second order of derivate of the data, and right censor the data and stick a polynomial trend line through that then it is clearly flattening.FF43 said:London seeing more than twice the normal number of deaths, from any cause.
https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1250662902425681920
what it ignores is the very substantial decrease in deaths since those data which are now about 3 weeks out of date. The next week's release (due tomorrow) won't be any better, but the daily deaths reported from hospitals are very significantly down from the peak which was now SIXTEEN days ago (April 4)
Statistics is just a matter of ignoring the data you don't like and then presenting the ones you do in the manner that best suits your purposes.2 -
Tony Blair just said we rely upon people coming into the country.0
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Not much social distancing going on here....
https://twitter.com/GranadaReports/status/12518340568594391070 -
Thank you Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:
How did you pay? If you paid by credit card, enlist the credit card company's help with BA.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Have received an e mail from British Airways cancelling our flights to Vancouver on the 12th May and return on the 25th May. They direct me to their website for a voucher or refund and provide a telephone number. Their website only processes a voucher and requires you to telephone for the refund. Needless to say it is impossible to get through and to be honest this strikes me as sharp practice. The website should have the two options of voucher or refund, which of course would reduce the phone calls enormously.
They are in effect using us to control their cash flows and, while understandable, is just wrong
However the good news is that we will be refunded all our travel costs including train to heathrow and premier inn at terminal 4, (both have already refunded) and we were able to cancel the holiday inn in North Vancouver free of charge.
In addition we have had our travel insurance refunded apart from a fair adminstration fee
So we have been fortunate to recover virtually all our costs without even trying to use our insurance policy
Yes I paid by credit card last October and am aware the Nationwide will refund if necessary but I do expect to receive the refund in due course from BA. I have flown with BA across the world for years and do have sympathy with them0 -
My brother sent me a picture of himself in his "I am literally a communist" T-shirt and didn't understand why I might not think it "amusing" - having a wife with family members deliberately starved to death by Stalin, thrown out of a window by the KGB (suicide natch), a mother in law refused a place at Moscow university because "the Jew quota is filled and no more will be admitted" might have something to do with it.Cyclefree said:
Or indeed all those people who supported Communism and far more recently than fascism in the 1930’s. Look at the lionisation of Eric Hobsbawm for instance.ydoethur said:
It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.Alistair said:
Hurrah for the BlackshirtsMarqueeMark said:
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....
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On an utterly trivial and unrelated note, this demography talk reminds me that the demographics stats present in Civ II aren't in Civ VI. Which is a shame. You used to be able to get average number of children up to about 7,000 in the former, if you focused on settlers early on.0
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Why don't the entrepreneurs and wealth creators just create more wealth?DavidL said:
Not sure I agree with this. We need a viable working economy. If enough companies fall over even those that might have survived will fall too. Bad debt and supply issues will kill them. These are extraordinary times but I think that the public purse is going to have to take the strain of this so that people remain employed, taxes continue to be paid in the medium turn and life returns to something approaching normalcy. The cost is mind boggling and QE still scares me but the alternatives are worse.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.
That's what they do isn't it?0 -
168 Spanish cruise passengers disembarking in Barcelona: the Government of Spain is coordinating an operation to facilitate the disembarkation of 168 Spaniards and other European passengers who had been sailing on a cruise ship since January and which, due to severe restrictions due to the COVID19 pandemic , had not been able to touch land since last March 14, as reported by the Government itself in a statement. The operation, which is taking place from early this morning in the Port of Barcelona thanks to a special authorization from the Ministry of Healthcare that exempts the ship from the general prohibition of docking in Spanish ports, is making it easier for Spaniards to return to their homes, from which they left earlier this year to enjoy a cruise whose final destination was Venice. Can’t imagine that was fun!0
-
Listening to Tony Blair with Boulton he is making good sense. (Not Boulton)
Boris would be wise to co-opt him to the cause1 -
Sweden is 10 million people. Add up Finland, Norway and Denmark and you have 15 million total. More than 50% more people than Sweden but less than half as many absolute Covid deaths.eek said:
Yep deaths 9 times higher than Norway and 3 times high than Germany see https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/swedish-coronavirus-no-lockdown-model-proves-lethal-by-hans-bergstrom-2020-04rottenborough said:Times:
"Mr Johnson is concerned that relatively little is known about the effect that easing individual restrictions could have on the transmission rate."
Er, Sweden?
And I use Norway as it's a valid example where most other factors will be equal
Now it's possible that in 2 years time we will look back and say Sweden did well but I wouldn't be using it as an example at the moment (those that do don't seem to look at the detail, just what they want their argument to say).1 -
Really? He just said we need to get international travel going again!Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Tony Blair with Boulton he is making good sense. (Not Boulton)
Boris would be wise to co-opt him to the cause0 -
Russia has. One of my Russian friends on Strava is running laps of his dacha. Both Italy and France have brought in much stricter conditions - in France it has to be a maximum of 1 hour and within a km of your home, and at least in some places including Paris, not during daytime.HYUFD said:
I think it is only Spain in Europe that has even banned outside exerciseSandpit said:
The U.K. lockdown is not as strict as measures imposed in many other countries, who are not allowing any leaving of the house except to buy groceries or medicines, and have police and even army on the streets enforcing the measures.JohnLilburne said:
Well, that's mixed. We haven't (mostly) closed parks and forests and my local market is certainly still operating.Casino_Royale said:
Really? From BBC news:alex_ said:
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”1 -
Because the government isn't permitting them to do so?Alistair said:
Why don't the entrepreneurs and wealth creators just create more wealth?DavidL said:
Not sure I agree with this. We need a viable working economy. If enough companies fall over even those that might have survived will fall too. Bad debt and supply issues will kill them. These are extraordinary times but I think that the public purse is going to have to take the strain of this so that people remain employed, taxes continue to be paid in the medium turn and life returns to something approaching normalcy. The cost is mind boggling and QE still scares me but the alternatives are worse.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.
That's what they do isn't it?0 -
The rejection of the Sunday Times accusations by number 10 has been thorough and shown it as inaccurate and irresponsible journalism at this moment in the crisisIanB2 said:
Not really. During a crisis, people want the government to succeed and incline toward supporting it. If there is any punishment to be deserved, it will be meted out afterwards.BluestBlue said:
A nice rebuff to the endless stupid whining about the Government's response.HYUFD said:
3 -
This will be the measure of Johnson's leadership. He needs to be able to inspire the country to follow him, to stay home when asked to do so, and to abide by all continuing restrictions when others are eased.Dura_Ace said:
It's not going to be up to your beloved government soon. People have had enough. My mother (aged 81¼) has said, and I use her exact words, 'balls to it.'HYUFD said:Until we get mass testing expanded sufficiently then ending the lockdown is not an option
Although I think questions about whether he could have done more in February to prepare the country are important, they do not constitute the central test of leadership that Johnson and the country faces.1 -
So thats what Boris is up to. A real life attempt to beat the Civ 'average number of children' score.Morris_Dancer said:On an utterly trivial and unrelated note, this demography talk reminds me that the demographics stats present in Civ II aren't in Civ VI. Which is a shame. You used to be able to get average number of children up to about 7,000 in the former, if you focused on settlers early on.
0 -
One thing that the BBC should do, that would be educationalist to follow some small businesses through startup etc. Documentary style.Andy_Cooke said:
Slight drawback to that first suggestion of yours: any non-monopolistic, non-gouging, non-rent-seeking company would be screwed, no matter how honest they've been.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
I was always taught that profit margins of 3% (for manufacturing) and 4% (for services) were about par. Above that, and they're doing something funky (maybe they are incredibly efficient (so why isn't everyone copying them?), or maybe they've got a dedicated band of customers who they can gouge at will, or maybe they're monopolistic, or dodgy). So, say you're at that level and you spend nothing on growth or paying down debt. You pay the full 20% on your profits. After three years, you've paid 1.8%-2.4% of your turnover on tax, so that's the limit of what you'd allow them.
That's 6 to 9 days of turnover.
The richest companies, and the most monopolistic and gouging and rent-seeking - they'd be fine, though. Those who have the least markup for their customers: bye-bye.
One thing that became clear when that comedy about the cereal cafe near Brick Lane in London came up - a big portion of the population have absolutely no idea of how a business works, the bills they pay and legal obligations they have.
I reduced a couple of people I know to slack jawed astonishment... I just pointed that even if you are selling nothing, just providing a chair in an inhabitable space, and maybe Wifi, *someone* need to pay a serious amount per hour for it to work.1 -
But they're not quarantined - which is what other countries did before they stopped foreign arrivals altogether. So they can still go out for daily exercise, for essential groceries and medical needs. In Guernsey the head of government remarked that travel restrictions (mandatory self quarantine for 14 days from arrival) would likely be the last part of lockdown lifted.JohnLilburne said:
On entry, they are subject to the same lockdown rules as the rest of us.Cyclefree said:The other things I find odd are these. It’s all very well worrying about lockdowns but at the same time we are allowing people to fly into the country, not just into Heathrow but via private planes, with no controls at all. And we’re discharging people into care homes thus increasing the risks for the most vulnerable - a point repeatedly made by @Nigelb.
Stopping people going to restaurants seems pretty pointless if we don’t do something about these sources of transmission. The latter policy seems criminally negligent to me and the first is both daft and completely out of line with what other countries are doing. Why should small businesses here suffer while rich people with private jets get to swan into the country unhindered?
On care homes this is verging on criminal negligence - the cynic in me wonders if its a way to keep the hospital deaths low and "they were going to die soon anyway". I await a more convincing rationale.
0 -
As with every recession, there will be opportunities for new investment as we come out of it.Alistair said:
Why don't the entrepreneurs and wealth creators just create more wealth?DavidL said:
Not sure I agree with this. We need a viable working economy. If enough companies fall over even those that might have survived will fall too. Bad debt and supply issues will kill them. These are extraordinary times but I think that the public purse is going to have to take the strain of this so that people remain employed, taxes continue to be paid in the medium turn and life returns to something approaching normalcy. The cost is mind boggling and QE still scares me but the alternatives are worse.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.
That's what they do isn't it?
To think of one example, it’s going to be really cheap to buy aeroplanes in the next couple of years, as many of the established airlines are forced to downsize or go bust. This is an opportunity for a new player to establish themselves with a lower cost base than their competition.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good morning
Have received an e mail from British Airways cancelling our flights to Vancouver on the 12th May and return on the 25th May. They direct me to their website for a voucher or refund and provide a telephone number. Their website only processes a voucher and requires you to telephone for the refund. Needless to say it is impossible to get through and to be honest this strikes me as sharp practice. The website should have the two options of voucher or refund, which of course would reduce the phone calls enormously. They are in effect using us to control their cash flows and, while understandable, is just wrong
However the good news is that we will be refunded all our travel costs including train to heathrow and premier inn at terminal 4, (both have already refunded) and we were able to cancel the holiday inn in North Vancouver free of charge.
In addition we have had our travel insurance refunded apart from a fair adminstration fee
So we have been fortunate to recover virtually all our costs without even trying to use our insurance policy
Get in touch with them via twitter. They have processed my refund that way - though I'm yet to see the £££.0 -
Mr. Pioneers, in his difference, pumping out new settlements is highly effective.
Edited extra bit: defence*, even.0 -
That's a new name in the polling game isn't it?HYUFD said:1 -
They were both owned by Rothermere at that point weren't they, hence the Fascist flirting?ydoethur said:
It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.Alistair said:
Hurrah for the BlackshirtsMarqueeMark said:
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....1 -
Useful-looking open and evolving compilation of everything Covid:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1eH0d3sldy_bocJpgvnCIsRXaguumDpiEzgDd2TjfJFI/edit0 -
Do you know the ship's name. We have disembarked cruise ships twice in Barcelonanichomar said:168 Spanish cruise passengers disembarking in Barcelona: the Government of Spain is coordinating an operation to facilitate the disembarkation of 168 Spaniards and other European passengers who had been sailing on a cruise ship since January and which, due to severe restrictions due to the COVID19 pandemic , had not been able to touch land since last March 14, as reported by the Government itself in a statement. The operation, which is taking place from early this morning in the Port of Barcelona thanks to a special authorization from the Ministry of Healthcare that exempts the ship from the general prohibition of docking in Spanish ports, is making it easier for Spaniards to return to their homes, from which they left earlier this year to enjoy a cruise whose final destination was Venice. Can’t imagine that was fun!
0 -
He is right but of course it is a long way awaytlg86 said:
Really? He just said we need to get international travel going again!Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Tony Blair with Boulton he is making good sense. (Not Boulton)
Boris would be wise to co-opt him to the cause0 -
And you would indubitably say that the wet stuff strengthens the Union.HYUFD said:
Firstly the UK does not have the highest death toll in Europe but only the 4th highest and second if it was raining today scotgoespop would say that made a powerful new case for independence.malcolmg said:From an old poster.......
New blogpost: The "British family coming together" has directly led to Scotland being part of (probably) the worst death toll in Europe - and that in itself makes a powerful new case for independence:
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-british-family-coming-together-has.html #indyref20 -
I understand this. Problem is, the lack of action in February is causing massive problems down the line. Allowing the epidemic to get out of control and then trying to impose it again makes it difficult to exit from lockdown safely. Those that prepared and acted sooner are in a much never place now.LostPassword said:
This will be the measure of Johnson's leadership. He needs to be able to inspire the country to follow him, to stay home when asked to do so, and to abide by all continuing restrictions when others are eased.Dura_Ace said:
It's not going to be up to your beloved government soon. People have had enough. My mother (aged 81¼) has said, and I use her exact words, 'balls to it.'HYUFD said:Until we get mass testing expanded sufficiently then ending the lockdown is not an option
Although I think questions about whether he could have done more in February to prepare the country are important, they do not constitute the central test of leadership that Johnson and the country faces.1 -
R4 - head of HMRC said they'd handled over 60,000 in the first half hour.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Thank you. Will tryCarlottaVance said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Have received an e mail from British Airways cancelling our flights to Vancouver on the 12th May and return on the 25th May. They direct me to their website for a voucher or refund and provide a telephone number. Their website only processes a voucher and requires you to telephone for the refund. Needless to say it is impossible to get through and to be honest this strikes me as sharp practice. The website should have the two options of voucher or refund, which of course would reduce the phone calls enormously. They are in effect using us to control their cash flows and, while understandable, is just wrong
However the good news is that we will be refunded all our travel costs including train to heathrow and premier inn at terminal 4, (both have already refunded) and we were able to cancel the holiday inn in North Vancouver free of charge.
In addition we have had our travel insurance refunded apart from a fair adminstration fee
So we have been fortunate to recover virtually all our costs without even trying to use our insurance policy
Get in touch with them via twitter. They have processed my refund that way - though I'm yet to see the £££.0 -
We could certainly do with some rain. The woodland paths I am frequenting on my daily permitted exercise are turning into dust bowls and the burns are as low as mid summer. Time @SouthamObserver was forecasting a drought. That always brings a good dose of rain.Theuniondivvie said:
And you would indubitably say that the wet stuff strengthens the Union.HYUFD said:
Firstly the UK does not have the highest death toll in Europe but only the 4th highest and second if it was raining today scotgoespop would say that made a powerful new case for independence.malcolmg said:From an old poster.......
New blogpost: The "British family coming together" has directly led to Scotland being part of (probably) the worst death toll in Europe - and that in itself makes a powerful new case for independence:
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-british-family-coming-together-has.html #indyref22 -
Have checked with a mutual acquaintance and we both feel that Mr H retired from any significant NHS association 20+ years ago.OldKingCole said:
I have a feeling that, some years ago, I met Bruce Hammond.Floater said:So - headline on Telegraph live updates
Ambulance manager who worked for NHS for 33 years dies with Covid-19
The impression I got from the headline was that this was another NHS worker who potentially contracted disease in the course of their work
I then read down the page
A retired NHS pharmacist has died after contracting Covid-19 while on a cruise ship.
Bruce Hammond, who ran pharmacies in Leeds died from coronavirus on April 6 aged 89.
Mr Hammond and his wife Angela were both admitted to hospital suffering from Covid-19 on returning home after a Caribbean cruise.0 -
Why don't they tell businesses to apply in alphabetical order by company name? Each day, new letter.Scott_xP said:
Everyone could be processed in less than a month.0 -
What, better than PB?NickPalmer said:Useful-looking open and evolving compilation of everything Covid:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1eH0d3sldy_bocJpgvnCIsRXaguumDpiEzgDd2TjfJFI/edit
0 -
Where are people going to fly to? Many, if not most, countries have banned entry to foreigners - in some cases even foreign long term residentstlg86 said:
Really? He just said we need to get international travel going again!Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Tony Blair with Boulton he is making good sense. (Not Boulton)
Boris would be wise to co-opt him to the cause2 -
much better place.FF43 said:
I understand this. Problem is, the lack of action in February is causing massive problems down the line. Allowing the epidemic to get out of control and then trying to impose it again makes it difficult to exit from lockdown safely. Those that prepared and acted sooner are in a much never place now.LostPassword said:
This will be the measure of Johnson's leadership. He needs to be able to inspire the country to follow him, to stay home when asked to do so, and to abide by all continuing restrictions when others are eased.Dura_Ace said:
It's not going to be up to your beloved government soon. People have had enough. My mother (aged 81¼) has said, and I use her exact words, 'balls to it.'HYUFD said:Until we get mass testing expanded sufficiently then ending the lockdown is not an option
Although I think questions about whether he could have done more in February to prepare the country are important, they do not constitute the central test of leadership that Johnson and the country faces.
This isn't a battle. It's about putting in place the organisation and system that people actually follow, which allow us to live with a deadly epidemic.0 -
They can just fire up the presses David or cancel all the debt to themselves. It is mostly funny money smoke and mirrors.DavidL said:
Not sure I agree with this. We need a viable working economy. If enough companies fall over even those that might have survived will fall too. Bad debt and supply issues will kill them. These are extraordinary times but I think that the public purse is going to have to take the strain of this so that people remain employed, taxes continue to be paid in the medium turn and life returns to something approaching normalcy. The cost is mind boggling and QE still scares me but the alternatives are worse.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.0 -
Mayor of Middlesbrough has a problem; he has closed all the parks near where people live on the basis of questionable spreadsheet from an obscure thinktank.
Now he is making unnecessary journeys around the city making videos telling people where he thinks they should be exercising. Including dogs off leads and small children in the same place.
Ouch.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=213533076613654
https://twitter.com/Tees_Issues/status/1252146888398327808
0 -
Can you give us anything positive about him.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Singapore's having a nasty run:
SINGAPORE - The Ministry of Health (MOH) has preliminarily confirmed 1,426 new cases of Covid-19 infection in Singapore as of Monday noon (April 20), the single highest daily spike in numbers since the outbreak began in January....
...This brings the total number of cases in Singapore to 8,014.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/1426-new-coronavirus-cases-in-spore-in-new-daily-high
We do care homes, they do foreign worker dormitories.0 -
Is he doing more than 1 walk / video a day?MattW said:Mayor of Middlesbrough has a problem; he has closed all the parks near where people live on the basis of questionable spreadsheet from an obscure thinktank.
Now he is making unnecessary journeys around the city making videos telling people where he thinks they should be exercising. Including dogs off leads and small children in the same place.
Ouch.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=213533076613654
https://twitter.com/Tees_Issues/status/1252146888398327808
Somehow I suspect he won't be getting re-elected.0 -
People think stuff just happens. Local yokels on Twitbook very upset with the council owned hotel wanting to charge for rooms for key workers. "JUST GIVE THEM AWAY AT COST" is the cry. Yes. A partially closed hotel unable to generate any revenue other than rooms to keyworkers will have a pretty heavy loading of fixed costs per room. That it is partially closed does nothing to reduce / remove its fixed costs, and its operating costs won't have shrunk by that much. Nor would they be happy picking up these bills...Malmesbury said:ne thing that the BBC should do, that would be educationalist to follow some small businesses through startup etc. Documentary style.
One thing that became clear when that comedy about the cereal cafe near Brick Lane in London came up - a big portion of the population have absolutely no idea of how a business works, the bills they pay and legal obligations they have.
I reduced a couple of people I know to slack jawed astonishment... I just pointed that even if you are selling nothing, just providing a chair in an inhabitable space, and maybe Wifi, *someone* need to pay a serious amount per hour for it to work.
1 -
I’d assumed that that the idea was to let people get some fresh air, walk the dog etc. I was surprised to hear that people are doing 10km runs, 40km bike rides and getting in cars to go to parks - none of which seem to me to be in the spirit of the regulations.JohnLilburne said:
Russia has. One of my Russian friends on Strava is running laps of his dacha. Both Italy and France have brought in much stricter conditions - in France it has to be a maximum of 1 hour and within a km of your home, and at least in some places including Paris, not during daytime.HYUFD said:
I think it is only Spain in Europe that has even banned outside exerciseSandpit said:
The U.K. lockdown is not as strict as measures imposed in many other countries, who are not allowing any leaving of the house except to buy groceries or medicines, and have police and even army on the streets enforcing the measures.JohnLilburne said:
Well, that's mixed. We haven't (mostly) closed parks and forests and my local market is certainly still operating.Casino_Royale said:
Really? From BBC news:alex_ said:
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”1 -
Yep, a few well timed cloudbursts between 1am-6am would be just the thing.DavidL said:
We could certainly do with some rain. The woodland paths I am frequenting on my daily permitted exercise are turning into dust bowls and the burns are as low as mid summer. Time @SouthamObserver was forecasting a drought. That always brings a good dose of rain.Theuniondivvie said:
And you would indubitably say that the wet stuff strengthens the Union.HYUFD said:
Firstly the UK does not have the highest death toll in Europe but only the 4th highest and second if it was raining today scotgoespop would say that made a powerful new case for independence.malcolmg said:From an old poster.......
New blogpost: The "British family coming together" has directly led to Scotland being part of (probably) the worst death toll in Europe - and that in itself makes a powerful new case for independence:
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-british-family-coming-together-has.html #indyref22 -
I still remember Harvey Jones's "Troubleshooter" series which sadly ended 20 years ago now. It was a little simplistic but gave some idea of how to run a business. In more recent times there was Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares which included explanations to those who thought that they could run a restaurant because they could cook. But the lack of interest in business and indeed making money is endemic in our media, not just the BBC.Malmesbury said:
One thing that the BBC should do, that would be educationalist to follow some small businesses through startup etc. Documentary style.Andy_Cooke said:
Slight drawback to that first suggestion of yours: any non-monopolistic, non-gouging, non-rent-seeking company would be screwed, no matter how honest they've been.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
I was always taught that profit margins of 3% (for manufacturing) and 4% (for services) were about par. Above that, and they're doing something funky (maybe they are incredibly efficient (so why isn't everyone copying them?), or maybe they've got a dedicated band of customers who they can gouge at will, or maybe they're monopolistic, or dodgy). So, say you're at that level and you spend nothing on growth or paying down debt. You pay the full 20% on your profits. After three years, you've paid 1.8%-2.4% of your turnover on tax, so that's the limit of what you'd allow them.
That's 6 to 9 days of turnover.
The richest companies, and the most monopolistic and gouging and rent-seeking - they'd be fine, though. Those who have the least markup for their customers: bye-bye.
One thing that became clear when that comedy about the cereal cafe near Brick Lane in London came up - a big portion of the population have absolutely no idea of how a business works, the bills they pay and legal obligations they have.
I reduced a couple of people I know to slack jawed astonishment... I just pointed that even if you are selling nothing, just providing a chair in an inhabitable space, and maybe Wifi, *someone* need to pay a serious amount per hour for it to work.2 -
The issue is that their stats are worth precisely zero. It's not a cover up there so much as it is purposefully under counting by not testing and not hospitalising likely cases and they only count deaths in hospitals and don't have a general data release on total weekly/monthly deaths like we do to see what's happening outside of hospitals.rottenborough said:Times:
"Mr Johnson is concerned that relatively little is known about the effect that easing individual restrictions could have on the transmission rate."
Er, Sweden?0 -
This chap from the American religious right wants to make spanking great again.
https://twitter.com/bryanjfischer/status/1251914803188125697?s=210 -
London based political journalists are on whole not rational creatures. Perhaps.CrispyRendang said:
it's a 4-day-old tweet showing a big increase in deaths in London compared to the very long term trend.Alistair said:
If you take a second order of derivate of the data, and right censor the data and stick a polynomial trend line through that then it is clearly flattening.FF43 said:London seeing more than twice the normal number of deaths, from any cause.
https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1250662902425681920
what it ignores is the very substantial decrease in deaths since those data which are now about 3 weeks out of date. The next week's release (due tomorrow) won't be any better, but the daily deaths reported from hospitals are very significantly down from the peak which was now SIXTEEN days ago (April 4)
Statistics is just a matter of ignoring the data you don't like and then presenting the ones you do in the manner that best suits your purposes.
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A lot of people are enjoying it , there are many people still working , many getting paid to do nothing and it is most likely the people who were living beyond their means that are in trouble, ie most people living in London apart from the rich and others who thought having big houses , fancy cars would never be an issue. For great swathes of the population the only impact is not being able to go out freely and that will end at some point in near future even if some restrictions remain.Cyclefree said:
On a personal level in terms of my daily life I am fine. The weather is lovely, I have great views and lots of countryside to walk in and I have close family around to do shopping etc. I have a routine to avoid the slumping in front of the TV issue.NickPalmer said:The Government could do with some detailed (telephone) polls on how people are actually coping - Casino and others are suggesting rampant depression, but is there evidence for this? Anecdotally in my circle, people see it as a nuisance but infrequently more than that in terms of mental distress, and are far more worried about the lockdown being released too soon. Financial worries may change that in due course.
We do have one advantage from having entered lockdown late - we get to see what happens in countries that relax it in different ways - small shops in Austria, schools in Denmark, etc.
But I worry about:-
(1) finances the longer this goes on;
(2) my daughter and her business - this is a very big worry for me;
(3) not seeing my sons and their employment prospects and general state of mind. It is very hard for them having to stay in and not be able to see friends etc or do anything worthwhile about employment / travel / other plans etc. One son has a history of serious anxiety disorders and if that were to happen again I would be out of my mind with worry for him - and his brother - and would do whatever it takes to help, even at the risk to my own life. So far he seems to be coping - fingers crossed;
(4) the prospect of having to stay shielded for a long while. I like to be up and about and doing stuff. Having an extended quasi-holiday over the spring/summer months is one thing. Doing so for 2 years with no income and no ability to help my children would be intolerable.
Everyone will have their own issues. There are no easy answers. But destroying the future for my children is too much. If I have to retreat and keep myself hidden away to allow my children to have a life and a future then I will do that and take the risk. I appreciate that the balance for others will be different and that what is right for individuals may not be right for the country as a whole.
Many will need to reassess their lives and goals.1 -
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Middle East does the foreign worker dorms too. Very crowded by Western standards — although not as bad as you’d see in Mumbai and Manila, which is where most of the inhabitants originate.CarlottaVance said:Singapore's having a nasty run:
SINGAPORE - The Ministry of Health (MOH) has preliminarily confirmed 1,426 new cases of Covid-19 infection in Singapore as of Monday noon (April 20), the single highest daily spike in numbers since the outbreak began in January....
...This brings the total number of cases in Singapore to 8,014.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/1426-new-coronavirus-cases-in-spore-in-new-daily-high
We do care homes, they do foreign worker dormitories.0 -
A local hotel in West London was advertising (big banners) £20-30 a night for NHS and essential workers. Within 1 hours walk of a bunch of hospitals (probably 30 min for a couple).RochdalePioneers said:
People think stuff just happens. Local yokels on Twitbook very upset with the council owned hotel wanting to charge for rooms for key workers. "JUST GIVE THEM AWAY AT COST" is the cry. Yes. A partially closed hotel unable to generate any revenue other than rooms to keyworkers will have a pretty heavy loading of fixed costs per room. That it is partially closed does nothing to reduce / remove its fixed costs, and its operating costs won't have shrunk by that much. Nor would they be happy picking up these bills...Malmesbury said:ne thing that the BBC should do, that would be educationalist to follow some small businesses through startup etc. Documentary style.
One thing that became clear when that comedy about the cereal cafe near Brick Lane in London came up - a big portion of the population have absolutely no idea of how a business works, the bills they pay and legal obligations they have.
I reduced a couple of people I know to slack jawed astonishment... I just pointed that even if you are selling nothing, just providing a chair in an inhabitable space, and maybe Wifi, *someone* need to pay a serious amount per hour for it to work.
A number of people on a local forum tried to have a go for price gouging. Has anyone *outside* London seen a hotel room that cheap in decades?
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Yes and I have no doubt that is what is going to happen but at what price Malcolm? As an investor you should be worried that your capital is going to be further depreciated.malcolmg said:
They can just fire up the presses David or cancel all the debt to themselves. It is mostly funny money smoke and mirrors.DavidL said:
Not sure I agree with this. We need a viable working economy. If enough companies fall over even those that might have survived will fall too. Bad debt and supply issues will kill them. These are extraordinary times but I think that the public purse is going to have to take the strain of this so that people remain employed, taxes continue to be paid in the medium turn and life returns to something approaching normalcy. The cost is mind boggling and QE still scares me but the alternatives are worse.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.0 -
Costa Deliziosa - there are two other ships docking today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52350262Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you know the ship's name. We have disembarked cruise ships twice in Barcelonanichomar said:168 Spanish cruise passengers disembarking in Barcelona: the Government of Spain is coordinating an operation to facilitate the disembarkation of 168 Spaniards and other European passengers who had been sailing on a cruise ship since January and which, due to severe restrictions due to the COVID19 pandemic , had not been able to touch land since last March 14, as reported by the Government itself in a statement. The operation, which is taking place from early this morning in the Port of Barcelona thanks to a special authorization from the Ministry of Healthcare that exempts the ship from the general prohibition of docking in Spanish ports, is making it easier for Spaniards to return to their homes, from which they left earlier this year to enjoy a cruise whose final destination was Venice. Can’t imagine that was fun!
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Robert Jenrick said the other day that parks should remain open.MattW said:Mayor of Middlesbrough has a problem; he has closed all the parks near where people live on the basis of questionable spreadsheet from an obscure thinktank.
Now he is making unnecessary journeys around the city making videos telling people where he thinks they should be exercising. Including dogs off leads and small children in the same place.
Ouch.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=213533076613654
https://twitter.com/Tees_Issues/status/12521468883983278080 -
If they do it enough, you can make up the money by investing in fashion houses.DavidL said:
Yes and I have no doubt that is what is going to happen but at what price Malcolm? As an investor you should be worried that your capital is going to be further depreciated.malcolmg said:
They can just fire up the presses David or cancel all the debt to themselves. It is mostly funny money smoke and mirrors.DavidL said:
Not sure I agree with this. We need a viable working economy. If enough companies fall over even those that might have survived will fall too. Bad debt and supply issues will kill them. These are extraordinary times but I think that the public purse is going to have to take the strain of this so that people remain employed, taxes continue to be paid in the medium turn and life returns to something approaching normalcy. The cost is mind boggling and QE still scares me but the alternatives are worse.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.0 -
Thank youCarlottaVance said:
Costa Deliziosa - there are two other ships docking today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52350262Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you know the ship's name. We have disembarked cruise ships twice in Barcelonanichomar said:168 Spanish cruise passengers disembarking in Barcelona: the Government of Spain is coordinating an operation to facilitate the disembarkation of 168 Spaniards and other European passengers who had been sailing on a cruise ship since January and which, due to severe restrictions due to the COVID19 pandemic , had not been able to touch land since last March 14, as reported by the Government itself in a statement. The operation, which is taking place from early this morning in the Port of Barcelona thanks to a special authorization from the Ministry of Healthcare that exempts the ship from the general prohibition of docking in Spanish ports, is making it easier for Spaniards to return to their homes, from which they left earlier this year to enjoy a cruise whose final destination was Venice. Can’t imagine that was fun!
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I'm not at all sure Johnson is 'wary' of an early end to lockdown at all.
The government is concerned that if they name dates then people will think this is all over bar the shouting and change their behaviour early.
We might not find out the actual dates until very near.....er.....the actual dates.1 -
If Nicola can't organise this I may never vote SNP again!Theuniondivvie said:
Yep, a few well timed cloudbursts between 1am-6am would be just the thing.DavidL said:
We could certainly do with some rain. The woodland paths I am frequenting on my daily permitted exercise are turning into dust bowls and the burns are as low as mid summer. Time @SouthamObserver was forecasting a drought. That always brings a good dose of rain.Theuniondivvie said:
And you would indubitably say that the wet stuff strengthens the Union.HYUFD said:
Firstly the UK does not have the highest death toll in Europe but only the 4th highest and second if it was raining today scotgoespop would say that made a powerful new case for independence.malcolmg said:From an old poster.......
New blogpost: The "British family coming together" has directly led to Scotland being part of (probably) the worst death toll in Europe - and that in itself makes a powerful new case for independence:
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-british-family-coming-together-has.html #indyref24
