politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson pours cold water on the idea of a early end to the shu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson pours cold water on the idea of a early end to the shutdown
With Boris still convalescing after his bout of the virus there have been mixed messages over the weekend about what the government intends to do. First there were reports that we were going to see a partial return to the normal state over a period of months with primary schools going back in a fortnight being the first step. Then it was being briefed that we’d see c would bigger Range of shops to remain open.
Comments
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Am I first?0
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Boris may well understand lived experience is the best teacher.
That may apply to those newly unemployed and on UC claims too.
Or not.0 -
FPT
It's made a huge difference to my life. I live alone. I didn't used to spend much time in pubs and restaurants, but I did have a very active social life, both around church and a steam railway. I don't particularly miss going for a meal and a couple of pints with the lads from the railway every couple of weeks, but I do miss spending Saturdays drinking tea and fixing steam engines with good mates, and church via YouTube stream is a rather dry experience compared to being there.Pagan2 said:An observation on lockdown I have been pondering for a few days. I think it bothers those with money more than those of us who don't. The only real difference lockdown has made to me for example is I work from home rather than go into the office and the wednesday night board games are no longer in person we play on line. Same for those of us I know personally.
Even before lockdown we weren't going to pubs and restaurants etc. Why buy two pints of beer in a bar when for not much more you could buy a bottle of smirnoff that lasts two nights. So not being well off even though I earn above median wage I don't see it has changed my life much
Also there's a young lady I'm getting quite fond of, who lives 150 miles away. I've not seen her for around 6 weeks now, and whilst playing board games together over video calls is better than nothing, I'd rather get to see her in person.
The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.6 -
Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/1 -
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/
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Trump really is losing it tonight. SAD.0
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Boris is back. That is the significance of this story. That's the spin. It follows the criticism that Boris was awol during cobra meetings and generally uninvolved. Will there be an accompanying video so we can study the background for clues as to when and where it was filmed?0
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A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/0 -
FPT: There were some posts re high deaths in Spain yesterday per Worldometers.
The number appears to have been revised back downwards to 410 - broadly similar to recent days.0 -
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/2 -
It's amazing what comes out at times like this:
https://tinyurl.com/yaano6kx
Novak Djokovic says his opposition to vaccinations may get in the way of his return to competitive tennis.
“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” the world No 1 said in a live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes on Sunday.0 -
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South Korea reported fewer than 20 new cases of coronavirus for the third day in a row.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.0 -
Coronavirus: 'I'm the nurse who switches off the ventilator'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-523451770 -
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This is a great resource for tracking the changes in infection rates in US states - and as it is based on changes in reported numbers, rather than absolute figures, it should be to some extent corrected for differences in testing.
https://twitter.com/kevin/status/12515851439086919680 -
Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....0 -
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Apart perhaps for a small minority of very introverted or misanthropic types, this isn't much fun for anybody. About the best that can be said is at least we've had a pretty consistent run of fine weather: you can imagine how much worse this experience would've been if our rationed outdoor time was spoilt by constant pissing rain, to say nothing of being made to stand in agonizingly slow-moving queues outside shops whilst getting saturated by it.theProle said:The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
I dare say that, given that I'm spending nothing on going out, new clothes and other treats anymore, my bank balance is gradually getting fatter. So long as my job is safe that may continue to be the case for a long time: after all, our incarceration may last for so long that few outlets will have survived in which to make discretionary spending by the time the restrictions finally begin to be lifted.0 -
Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?1
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Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.0 -
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/0 -
Wouldn't surprise me if we're all supertaxed as a one-off in the next budget so the Government can recoup £20-30bn.Black_Rook said:
Apart perhaps for a small minority of very introverted or misanthropic types, this isn't much fun for anybody. About the best that can be said is at least we've had a pretty consistent run of fine weather: you can imagine how much worse this experience would've been if our rationed outdoor time was spoilt by constant pissing rain, to say nothing of being made to stand in agonizingly slow-moving queues outside shops whilst getting saturated by it.theProle said:The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
I dare say that, given that I'm spending nothing on going out, new clothes and other treats anymore, my bank balance is gradually getting fatter. So long as my job is safe that may continue to be the case for a long time: after all, our incarceration may last for so long that few outlets will have survived in which to make discretionary spending by the time the restrictions finally begin to be lifted.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
What's interesting to consider is the manner of the lockdown being gradually lifted. I'd guess it'll vary according to vulnerability (age/medical conditions) but I wonder if it'll either be lifted or a re-imposition will be stricter on cities.0 -
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....0 -
It would surprise me. The economy is on the floor and interest rates are near-zero. Why recoup anything in year one?Casino_Royale said:
Wouldn't surprise me if we're all supertaxed as a one-off in the next budget so the Government can recoup £20-30bn.Black_Rook said:
Apart perhaps for a small minority of very introverted or misanthropic types, this isn't much fun for anybody. About the best that can be said is at least we've had a pretty consistent run of fine weather: you can imagine how much worse this experience would've been if our rationed outdoor time was spoilt by constant pissing rain, to say nothing of being made to stand in agonizingly slow-moving queues outside shops whilst getting saturated by it.theProle said:The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
I dare say that, given that I'm spending nothing on going out, new clothes and other treats anymore, my bank balance is gradually getting fatter. So long as my job is safe that may continue to be the case for a long time: after all, our incarceration may last for so long that few outlets will have survived in which to make discretionary spending by the time the restrictions finally begin to be lifted.0 -
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.3 -
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.0 -
I suspect that a lot of people are ending the lockdown of their accord.0
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His no-doubt traumatic personal experience may make him overly cautious the other way in lifting the lockdown too.dixiedean said:Boris may well understand lived experience is the best teacher.
That may apply to those newly unemployed and on UC claims too.
Or not.
That has repercussions for all of us.0 -
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.5 -
I am sure the companies are struggling with staff shortages due to covid 19. Call anyone .its the same story.Casino_Royale said:
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/
Noone will speak to you at Scottish Widows. The other day i was blanked by Vodafone.. they are all in the same boat.0 -
They've done really well. It helped that a lot of their early cases were traceable to one event. Nevertheless they got their act together and avoided total lockdown. There was one weekend - 22/23rd Feb - when they asked everyone to stay indoors and they went on a mass deep clean, including tankers spraying in the streets. They introduced social distancing, they invented the term, and of course made face mask wearing mandatory in certain public places.Nigelb said:South Korea reported fewer than 20 new cases of coronavirus for the third day in a row.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.
They're an exemplar.
We could have saved thousands of lives if we'd had the humility to learn from our betters.0 -
How clear is it that masks and street cleaning makes the difference. I have my doubts but hey i am not an expert. There are suddenly loads of experts on here with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.Mysticrose said:
They've done really well. It helped that a lot of their early cases were traceable to one event. Nevertheless they got their act together and avoided total lockdown. There was one weekend - 22/23rd Feb - when they asked everyone to stay indoors and they went on a mass deep clean, including tankers spraying in the streets. They introduced social distancing, they invented the term, and of course made face mask wearing mandatory in certain public places.Nigelb said:South Korea reported fewer than 20 new cases of coronavirus for the third day in a row.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.
They're an exemplar.
We could have saved thousands of lives if we'd had the humility to learn from our betters.0 -
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....0 -
Thanks, Mr R. Although we're around the same age as your mother we're fortunate in that it's (still) 'we' and we're reasonably technologically savvy.I reported yesterday that my wife and her friends had discovered Zoom. Fortunately she has her own iPad!Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
Seriously though, while we're used to communicating with family members on different continents, technology only provides a partial answer and in emergency, particularly if one of us was obviously coming to the end of our lives, I suspect those of our descendants who could would try to physically visit.0 -
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.0 -
The easing of lockdowns in many places will just bring them
Into line with the one we have here. I don’t see how easing things is workable until we have a better handle on tracing and testing.0 -
What a mess.SouthamObserver said:The easing of lockdowns in many places will just bring them
Into line with the one we have here. I don’t see how easing things is workable until we have a better handle on tracing and testing.
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Mass shooting in Canada:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-523464470 -
Indeed, I last filled the car a month ago, and it's still reading at the top of the dialSandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/1 -
It’s already not pretty, but it’s going to be really bad when that happens. Furloughed friends are already giving up hope of returning to their old jobs. Unemployment with no hope of work is a terrible place to be.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.
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That path leads to United Fruit tryi g to overthrow your government.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
I think we can take the banana fondlers so lets do this.0 -
Hurrah for the BlackshirtsMarqueeMark said:
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....3 -
speaking of Denmark, have friends who organised a three day party for dozens of people in Denmark for June.
they've hired a group accommodation type place (sole hire).
the Danish regulations seem very confusing but essentially it seems that you can't meet in groups of more than 10 people except this doesn't apply to private homes including those hired, and you can still go camping, etc.
https://politi.dk/en/coronavirus-in-denmark/extension-of-measures-during-the-covid19-outbreak-in-denmark
the upshot of this is 'no refund' on the hire fee....0 -
The furlough scheme will certainly have saved a great deal of jobs, as it’s allowed companies to suspend operations at minimal cost in the hope that they can stay afloat through the crisis. But this can’t continue indefinitely, and a lot of sectors, especially in the leisure, entertainment and sport industries, are not going to bounce back quickly and will be in real trouble.Jonathan said:
It’s already not pretty, but it’s going to be really bad when that happens. Furloughed friends are already giving up hope of returning to their old jobs. Unemployment with no hope of work is a terrible place to be.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.0 -
Well I guess you would say that as you said coronavirus was a hoax and confidently predicted that daily death rates from the virus would be fewer in the UK than suicides: 16 deaths a day.squareroot2 said:
There are suddenly loads of experts on here with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.Mysticrose said:
They've done really well. It helped that a lot of their early cases were traceable to one event. Nevertheless they got their act together and avoided total lockdown. There was one weekend - 22/23rd Feb - when they asked everyone to stay indoors and they went on a mass deep clean, including tankers spraying in the streets. They introduced social distancing, they invented the term, and of course made face mask wearing mandatory in certain public places.Nigelb said:South Korea reported fewer than 20 new cases of coronavirus for the third day in a row.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.
They're an exemplar.
We could have saved thousands of lives if we'd had the humility to learn from our betters.
So, no wonder you are infected by bitterness.0 -
this is my 'English NHS deaths' spreadsheet if anyone is interested with graphs & filters by trust/etc.
https://gofile.io/?c=tShowr
Essentially London deaths are down possibly as much as 50%, but e.g. the NW not so much. The SW never got into 'mass deaths' in the first place.....
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True, but I’m fairly confident they’ll come eventually. I have less confidence about getting refunds eventually for lost plane flights.Casino_Royale said:
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/0 -
-
Well you guess wrong. I just question the experts who have suddenly appeared on here who seem to know all the answersand pillory the Govt.Mysticrose said:
Well I guess you would say that as you said coronavirus was a hoax and confidently predicted that daily death rates from the virus would be fewer in the UK than suicides: 16 deaths a day.squareroot2 said:
There are suddenly loads of experts on here with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.Mysticrose said:
They've done really well. It helped that a lot of their early cases were traceable to one event. Nevertheless they got their act together and avoided total lockdown. There was one weekend - 22/23rd Feb - when they asked everyone to stay indoors and they went on a mass deep clean, including tankers spraying in the streets. They introduced social distancing, they invented the term, and of course made face mask wearing mandatory in certain public places.Nigelb said:South Korea reported fewer than 20 new cases of coronavirus for the third day in a row.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.
They're an exemplar.
We could have saved thousands of lives if we'd had the humility to learn from our betters.
So, no wonder you are infected by bitterness.0 -
I think the impact will be universal, not limited to those sectors. Few companies will need or be able to afford everyone. Very few will now bounce back. Demand is going to be low and everyone will be cautious of investment.Sandpit said:
The furlough scheme will certainly have saved a great deal of jobs, as it’s allowed companies to suspend operations at minimal cost in the hope that they can stay afloat through the crisis. But this can’t continue indefinitely, and a lot of sectors, especially in the leisure, entertainment and sport industries, are not going to bounce back quickly and will be in real trouble.Jonathan said:
It’s already not pretty, but it’s going to be really bad when that happens. Furloughed friends are already giving up hope of returning to their old jobs. Unemployment with no hope of work is a terrible place to be.Sandpit said:
Companies shouldn’t be bailed out at all, unless they’re of national strategic importance to dealing with the crisis. People should be bailed out if they lose their jobs, which is what’s happening in practice.Foxy said:
Any bailout to any company should be limited to the amount of tax that they have paid in the last 3 years.Scott_xP said:
If they are registered in another tax domain, let that place bail them out. If an essential company for some reason, buy up the assets at firesale prices upon liquidation.
Companies need to learn the financial cost of off shoring, as well as the effect on stability of manufacturing chains.
The crunch will co e when the furlough scheme ends, and a lot of people move from earning £2k a month in support to the more usual unemployment benefit and universal credit.0 -
Really? From BBC news:alex_ said:
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”0 -
Even Ryanair emailed me offering a refund on my May Bank Holiday trip. I applied last week although it hasn't hit my credit card account yet.AlastairMeeks said:
True, but I’m fairly confident they’ll come eventually. I have less confidence about getting refunds eventually for lost plane flights.Casino_Royale said:
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/0 -
An impressive end product with good clear presentation, but underneath there is a lot of modelling and guesswork that puts a big ? over the accuracy and/or meaningfulness of this data.Nigelb said:This is a great resource for tracking the changes in infection rates in US states - and as it is based on changes in reported numbers, rather than absolute figures, it should be to some extent corrected for differences in testing.
https://twitter.com/kevin/status/12515851439086919680 -
To soak up excess income that many have squirreled away that would otherwise go into savings, as people can’t spend it now. So the economy can’t be boosted anyway.Philip_Thompson said:
It would surprise me. The economy is on the floor and interest rates are near-zero. Why recoup anything in year one?Casino_Royale said:
Wouldn't surprise me if we're all supertaxed as a one-off in the next budget so the Government can recoup £20-30bn.Black_Rook said:
Apart perhaps for a small minority of very introverted or misanthropic types, this isn't much fun for anybody. About the best that can be said is at least we've had a pretty consistent run of fine weather: you can imagine how much worse this experience would've been if our rationed outdoor time was spoilt by constant pissing rain, to say nothing of being made to stand in agonizingly slow-moving queues outside shops whilst getting saturated by it.theProle said:The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
I dare say that, given that I'm spending nothing on going out, new clothes and other treats anymore, my bank balance is gradually getting fatter. So long as my job is safe that may continue to be the case for a long time: after all, our incarceration may last for so long that few outlets will have survived in which to make discretionary spending by the time the restrictions finally begin to be lifted.
It would only be clawing back c.10% of what the Government had spent on the crisis though.0 -
..and i never said anything about hoaxes..that is a figment of your imaginationsquareroot2 said:
Well you guess wrong. I just question the experts who have suddenly appeared on here who seem to know all the answersand pillory the Govt.Mysticrose said:
Well I guess you would say that as you said coronavirus was a hoax and confidently predicted that daily death rates from the virus would be fewer in the UK than suicides: 16 deaths a day.squareroot2 said:
There are suddenly loads of experts on here with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.Mysticrose said:
They've done really well. It helped that a lot of their early cases were traceable to one event. Nevertheless they got their act together and avoided total lockdown. There was one weekend - 22/23rd Feb - when they asked everyone to stay indoors and they went on a mass deep clean, including tankers spraying in the streets. They introduced social distancing, they invented the term, and of course made face mask wearing mandatory in certain public places.Nigelb said:South Korea reported fewer than 20 new cases of coronavirus for the third day in a row.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.
They're an exemplar.
We could have saved thousands of lives if we'd had the humility to learn from our betters.
So, no wonder you are infected by bitterness.0 -
The problem with masks is that if they work, stopping people from inhaling all the droplets, the droplets don’t disappear they just build up in the mask ready to be touched or inhaled later. Everyone needs lots of masks.0
-
Well, that's mixed. We haven't (mostly) closed parks and forests and my local market is certainly still operating.Casino_Royale said:
Really? From BBC news:alex_ said:
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”0 -
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.0 -
It'd be helpful if you had the humility to fess up to screwing up, as did your beloved Government. I'm rather fond of Boris right now but he made an utter hash of this until late March and has caused thousand more deaths than were necessary.squareroot2 said:
Well you guess wrong. I just question the experts who have suddenly appeared on here who seem to know all the answersand pillory the Govt.Mysticrose said:
Well I guess you would say that as you said coronavirus was a hoax and confidently predicted that daily death rates from the virus would be fewer in the UK than suicides: 16 deaths a day.squareroot2 said:
There are suddenly loads of experts on here with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.Mysticrose said:
They've done really well. It helped that a lot of their early cases were traceable to one event. Nevertheless they got their act together and avoided total lockdown. There was one weekend - 22/23rd Feb - when they asked everyone to stay indoors and they went on a mass deep clean, including tankers spraying in the streets. They introduced social distancing, they invented the term, and of course made face mask wearing mandatory in certain public places.Nigelb said:South Korea reported fewer than 20 new cases of coronavirus for the third day in a row.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.
They're an exemplar.
We could have saved thousands of lives if we'd had the humility to learn from our betters.
So, no wonder you are infected by bitterness.
Some of us, especially those of us who have spent time in Asia like myself and Sean, had a fairly good idea of how dangerous this could turn out to be. We posted so many weeks back and the pillorying came from the likes of you. So, we're not jumped up experts. It's more that, like Fiver in Watership Down, we sniffed the ill wind that was blowing our way.
0 -
It’ll probably come just as I need to buy a new one again, in June.AlastairMeeks said:
True, but I’m fairly confident they’ll come eventually. I have less confidence about getting refunds eventually for lost plane flights.Casino_Royale said:
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/
If I was ultra-cynical I’d say the “delays” are at least partly a go-slow to help the rail companies with their cash flow.0 -
The U.K. lockdown is not as strict as measures imposed in many other countries, who are not allowing any leaving of the house except to buy groceries or medicines, and have police and even army on the streets enforcing the measures.JohnLilburne said:
Well, that's mixed. We haven't (mostly) closed parks and forests and my local market is certainly still operating.Casino_Royale said:
Really? From BBC news:alex_ said:
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”1 -
It’s no way to describe The Guardian.MarqueeMark said:
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....0 -
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
1 -
Rail companies find it remarkably easy to price, sell and take the money of hundreds of thousands of commuters in just a few days every January. They shouldn’t have a problem doing it in reverse.squareroot2 said:
I am sure the companies are struggling with staff shortages due to covid 19. Call anyone .its the same story.Casino_Royale said:
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/
Noone will speak to you at Scottish Widows. The other day i was blanked by Vodafone.. they are all in the same boat.
In my case they’ve already processed the refund and given me a receipt with my card at a staffed rail station nearby - I’m just waiting for a BACS payment, which is a case of just pressing the button.
Colour me sceptical that it’s too much hard work.0 -
They are nothing to do with stopping you inhaling virus and in fact are ineffective in doing so. There was an expert on the BBC last week, he said that when you exhale virus, the particles are enclosed in water droplets so are large enough to be trapped in a mask. Once they have (very quickly) dried out, they are far too small to be stopped. So masks are about stopping infected people from spreading it.Jonathan said:The problem with masks is that if they work, stopping people from inhaling all the droplets, the droplets don’t disappear they just build up in the mask ready to be touched or inhaled later. Everyone needs lots of masks.
But you are right about the quantities required. If they are disposable, and I go out three times a day, that's 1000 a year or 66 billion for the country. While we can't supply the NHS, that isn't going to happen1 -
Yes. There definitely comes a time when that’s a case - and it becomes more and more unbalanced every week longer it goes on.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
How do you price in grandparents never seeing their grandchildren again (whilst dying of something else), mass growth of mental health disorders and depression, the destruction of hundreds of thousands of people’s livelihoods, a semi-permanent reduction in the ability of the UK to fund a decent healthcare system, due to the reduced size of its economy, which means it can no longer treat nasty cancers and heart disorders leading to deaths there?
Your view is as incomplete as it gets.0 -
Lucky you. I can’t get Ryanair to reply to my emails. I’m now pursuing alternative routes.JohnLilburne said:
Even Ryanair emailed me offering a refund on my May Bank Holiday trip. I applied last week although it hasn't hit my credit card account yet.AlastairMeeks said:
True, but I’m fairly confident they’ll come eventually. I have less confidence about getting refunds eventually for lost plane flights.Casino_Royale said:
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/0 -
Nurseries and schools reopening is definitely a let up. And we have closed some parks.JohnLilburne said:
Well, that's mixed. We haven't (mostly) closed parks and forests and my local market is certainly still operating.Casino_Royale said:
Really? From BBC news:alex_ said:
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”
Denmark has gone even further.0 -
But that's frankly pointless.Casino_Royale said:
To soak up excess income that many have squirreled away that would otherwise go into savings, as people can’t spend it now. So the economy can’t be boosted anyway.Philip_Thompson said:
It would surprise me. The economy is on the floor and interest rates are near-zero. Why recoup anything in year one?Casino_Royale said:
Wouldn't surprise me if we're all supertaxed as a one-off in the next budget so the Government can recoup £20-30bn.Black_Rook said:
Apart perhaps for a small minority of very introverted or misanthropic types, this isn't much fun for anybody. About the best that can be said is at least we've had a pretty consistent run of fine weather: you can imagine how much worse this experience would've been if our rationed outdoor time was spoilt by constant pissing rain, to say nothing of being made to stand in agonizingly slow-moving queues outside shops whilst getting saturated by it.theProle said:The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
I dare say that, given that I'm spending nothing on going out, new clothes and other treats anymore, my bank balance is gradually getting fatter. So long as my job is safe that may continue to be the case for a long time: after all, our incarceration may last for so long that few outlets will have survived in which to make discretionary spending by the time the restrictions finally begin to be lifted.
It would only be clawing back c.10% of what the Government had spent on the crisis though.
There are some who are squirrelling away excess and some who are desperate and struggling more than normal. Identifying and taxing either group without catching the other is going to be impossible.
After this ends we will need those who are squirrelling away to be spending in the economy some of what they've squirrelled away more than we will need the Treasury to replenish its funds.
Short term the government should be looking at what taxes it can cut to get the economy rebooted not which it can increase. Long term tax rises may be necessary but that's tomorrow's problem not today's.2 -
I wish you well, and how can you?AlastairMeeks said:
Lucky you. I can’t get Ryanair to reply to my emails. I’m now pursuing alternative routes.JohnLilburne said:
Even Ryanair emailed me offering a refund on my May Bank Holiday trip. I applied last week although it hasn't hit my credit card account yet.AlastairMeeks said:
True, but I’m fairly confident they’ll come eventually. I have less confidence about getting refunds eventually for lost plane flights.Casino_Royale said:
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/
Surely the courts will be bunged up for months?0 -
London seeing more than twice the normal number of deaths, from any cause.
https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/12506629024256819200 -
There are some fates worse than death which comes to all eventually.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
There are pros and cons and only a fool looks at one side of the coin.0 -
What sacrifices are you and your family prepared to make for the economy? How many in your family would be an acceptable loss?Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There definitely comes a time when that’s a case - and it becomes more and more unbalanced every week longer it goes on.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
How do you price in grandparents never seeing their grandchildren again (whilst dying of something else), mass growth of mental health disorders and depression, the destruction of hundreds of thousands of people’s livelihoods, a semi-permanent reduction in the ability of the UK to fund a decent healthcare system, due to the reduced size of its economy, which means it can no longer treat nasty cancers and heart disorders leading to deaths there?
Your view is as incomplete as it gets.1 -
Morning all,
R4 Today leading on the story that Johnson has decided that an extension of the lockdown in three weeks, with some minor tweeks, is required.
We'll have no economy by the end of this.1 -
Stick to the day job!tlg86 said:It's amazing what comes out at times like this:
https://tinyurl.com/yaano6kx
Novak Djokovic says his opposition to vaccinations may get in the way of his return to competitive tennis.
“Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel,” the world No 1 said in a live Facebook chat with several fellow Serbian athletes on Sunday.0 -
Who are you prepared to lose?Philip_Thompson said:
There are some fates worse than death which comes to all eventually.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
There are pros and cons and only a fool looks at one side of the coin.0 -
Not a company known for their customer service, even in the best of times. After the flight date, the credit card chargeback route should elicit a timely response, they won’t want to end up blacklisted by the banks.AlastairMeeks said:
Lucky you. I can’t get Ryanair to reply to my emails. I’m now pursuing alternative routes.JohnLilburne said:
Even Ryanair emailed me offering a refund on my May Bank Holiday trip. I applied last week although it hasn't hit my credit card account yet.AlastairMeeks said:
True, but I’m fairly confident they’ll come eventually. I have less confidence about getting refunds eventually for lost plane flights.Casino_Royale said:
Hardly anyone who applied for a commuting refund from a major rail company has yet got one.Sandpit said:
They’ll be insignificant, compared to their old commuting bills.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will be surprised by their new, improved, WFH electricity bills.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/1 -
Indeed. Ideal cirumstances for the government to borrow to invest to get the economy moving again. At the moment it is hard to know where this will be needed, since this is not a classic market failure but rather a voluntary (by HMG diktat) suspension of activity, but in any case, the manifesto included large infrastructure projects. We won't see huge tax hikes but we do need to transition from Opex to Capex, as the management consultants like to say.Philip_Thompson said:
It would surprise me. The economy is on the floor and interest rates are near-zero. Why recoup anything in year one?Casino_Royale said:
Wouldn't surprise me if we're all supertaxed as a one-off in the next budget so the Government can recoup £20-30bn.Black_Rook said:
Apart perhaps for a small minority of very introverted or misanthropic types, this isn't much fun for anybody. About the best that can be said is at least we've had a pretty consistent run of fine weather: you can imagine how much worse this experience would've been if our rationed outdoor time was spoilt by constant pissing rain, to say nothing of being made to stand in agonizingly slow-moving queues outside shops whilst getting saturated by it.theProle said:The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
I dare say that, given that I'm spending nothing on going out, new clothes and other treats anymore, my bank balance is gradually getting fatter. So long as my job is safe that may continue to be the case for a long time: after all, our incarceration may last for so long that few outlets will have survived in which to make discretionary spending by the time the restrictions finally begin to be lifted.1 -
Human beings are very poor at looking at and assessing risk in the round, soberly. The reaction to 9/11 (with a very large number of previously flying Americans decanting onto the roads in the year after, and thus dying in increased numbers from accidents, being a classic example) There are some excellent books on this. We use our visceral fight or flight response - it’s a very poor cognitive ready reckoner.Philip_Thompson said:
There are some fates worse than death which comes to all eventually.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
There are pros and cons and only a fool looks at one side of the coin.
In this case we have a very high-profile dramatic and terrifying risk that is crowding out assessment of any other, and warping decision making.
It’s great for ensuring survival by escaping from a big scary lion. It’s terrible for managing many complex risk vectors in a very sophisticated society with tens of millions of people.2 -
I don't want to lose anyone but eventually will lose everyone, its a fact of life.Jonathan said:
Who are you prepared to lose?Philip_Thompson said:
There are some fates worse than death which comes to all eventually.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
There are pros and cons and only a fool looks at one side of the coin.
Its what we do in between that matters.0 -
If others unlock more and don't see a shoot up, then the pressure here to do the same will be unstoppable.Casino_Royale said:
Nurseries and schools reopening is definitely a let up. And we have closed some parks.JohnLilburne said:
Well, that's mixed. We haven't (mostly) closed parks and forests and my local market is certainly still operating.Casino_Royale said:
Really? From BBC news:alex_ said:
Although for many, that is involving returning to a lockdown state that is still no less restrictive than the U.K.Casino_Royale said:Just as we were slow to enter I suspect we'll be slow to exit.
Most European countries are starting to lift some restrictions now.
“ On Monday, in Germany small shops will be allowed to open and schools will resume for those classes that have graduation exams coming up.
Last week Berlin said the infection rate had slowed and that the outbreak was under control - while warning that people had to remain vigilant to avoid a second wave of infections.
Also from Monday, Poland will re-open parks and forests and in Norway, nursery schools will reopen their doors to children. The Czech Republic will allow open-air markets to trade and in Albania, the mining and oil industries can operate again.”
Denmark has gone even further.
1 -
Let’s hypothesise that the virus arose as was thought, via strange eating habits in Wuhan, and the local government hushed up the figures for fear of the reaction from the central government. This is the key point. The whistle blowers appeared and spoilt things, but the official figures remained (the numbers jumped by 50% last week for some reason). In January, the Chinese government had allowed some of the facts about the virus out, but not the full casualty figures in Wuhan. Too embarrassing
Imperial College modelled the official data (based on China) and calculated an R (infection rate) that was low. Hence the light precautions in the UK initially. Only when the horrific Italian date began to trickle out, did they smell a large Chinese rat. Trump has already accused the Chinese government of duplicity and he might be right for a change. The UK government can’t, or won’t follow suit without solid and direct evidence which is probably lacking. In the meantime, the Central Chinese government had for some time imposed a full belt and braces lockdown on Wuhan.
When Imperial tweaked their graphs with the new Italian data, they had a nasty shock. Lockdown in late March resulted. The UK government can claim they followed the science. Imperial can claim they took the only available data at face value, and their models would have been accurate had China told the truth.
Next year, when the enquiry begins, it will be established that the local Chinese bosses were, as is likely, ‘economical with the truth’. And by then the Wuhan data might even be accurate. The main criticism will be that the British government and Imperial were gullible. But they will claim they followed the scientific evidence. Yes, there was a delay after the Italian numbers started to appear, but the UK scientists had to wait for more data in case it was only a blip.
2 -
Same kind of person who uses “Keith Stormer”. But the DM does at least have a verifiable history of supporting fascism.MarqueeMark said:
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....0 -
Between them Air India and Aeroflot owe me nearly 10 grand.AlastairMeeks said:
True, but I’m fairly confident they’ll come eventually. I have less confidence about getting refunds eventually for lost plane flights.
0 -
If you are advocating a rise in death stats to free up the economy then you must have some people in mind. Who are you prepared to lose to get things moving again?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't want to lose anyone but eventually will lose everyone, its a fact of life.Jonathan said:
Who are you prepared to lose?Philip_Thompson said:
There are some fates worse than death which comes to all eventually.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
There are pros and cons and only a fool looks at one side of the coin.
Its what we do in between that matters.0 -
America is so screwed.0
-
I hope I’m wrong but it wouldn’t surprise me if some mandarins in the Treasury cook it up. They will target excess income and savings.Philip_Thompson said:
But that's frankly pointless.Casino_Royale said:
To soak up excess income that many have squirreled away that would otherwise go into savings, as people can’t spend it now. So the economy can’t be boosted anyway.Philip_Thompson said:
It would surprise me. The economy is on the floor and interest rates are near-zero. Why recoup anything in year one?Casino_Royale said:
Wouldn't surprise me if we're all supertaxed as a one-off in the next budget so the Government can recoup £20-30bn.Black_Rook said:
Apart perhaps for a small minority of very introverted or misanthropic types, this isn't much fun for anybody. About the best that can be said is at least we've had a pretty consistent run of fine weather: you can imagine how much worse this experience would've been if our rationed outdoor time was spoilt by constant pissing rain, to say nothing of being made to stand in agonizingly slow-moving queues outside shops whilst getting saturated by it.theProle said:The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
I dare say that, given that I'm spending nothing on going out, new clothes and other treats anymore, my bank balance is gradually getting fatter. So long as my job is safe that may continue to be the case for a long time: after all, our incarceration may last for so long that few outlets will have survived in which to make discretionary spending by the time the restrictions finally begin to be lifted.
It would only be clawing back c.10% of what the Government had spent on the crisis though.
There are some who are squirrelling away excess and some who are desperate and struggling more than normal. Identifying and taxing either group without catching the other is going to be impossible.
After this ends we will need those who are squirrelling away to be spending in the economy some of what they've squirrelled away more than we will need the Treasury to replenish its funds.
Short term the government should be looking at what taxes it can cut to get the economy rebooted not which it can increase. Long term tax rises may be necessary but that's tomorrow's problem not today's.
If the Government is going to take unpopular financial decisions it makes sense to do so 3-4 years away from the next election.0 -
A price well worth paying.Malmesbury said:
Ha - more like "Welcome to your new office - and you pay for it! WFH! Trebles All Round!"Andy_JS said:Graeme Archer:
"What have five weeks (I started early) of social isolation taught me? First, that hot-desking is dead, thank God. The idea that you should be forced to spend today at the desk where yesterday Eunice from Chemistry was hacking up her lungs (“Some sort of 24 hour thing”) will be illegal by the end of next year. Everyone who was part of the “abolish private office space” movement should be forced to march through the streets — at two metres separation — with a placard round their necks saying “Sorry for our unwarranted attack on human dignity”."
https://unherd.com/2020/04/i-dont-want-life-to-go-back-to-normal/0 -
"There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic."Philip_Thompson said:
I don't want to lose anyone but eventually will lose everyone, its a fact of life.Jonathan said:
Who are you prepared to lose?Philip_Thompson said:
There are some fates worse than death which comes to all eventually.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
There are pros and cons and only a fool looks at one side of the coin.
Its what we do in between that matters.
I have already spoken to one older relative this weekend, who has said precisely this.2 -
It has always intrigued me that the Daily Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Mosley while nobody ever mentions that the Daily Mirror was far more enthusiastic about them for far longer.Alistair said:
Hurrah for the BlackshirtsMarqueeMark said:
What the fuck is the "Daily Jackboot"? And what kind of twat uses that term?squareroot2 said:
At least its ahowing a lot more sense than the Daily Jackboot.Nigelb said:Blimey, a Telegraph article I am in 100% agreement with.
And on topic, too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/britain-can-avoid-second-peak-covid-19-restart-economy/
... The challenge for the Prime Minister is how to tread this middle path between lockdown and normalcy; how to make the number his epidemiologists give him work for Britain PLC.
There are a number of prerequisites, the most important of which is getting a nationwide network of test and trace teams in place in order that new cases can be quickly detected and isolated.
It’s a good idea to get people who volunteered as NHS helpers to do this, but perhaps managed by someone from Sandhurst rather than PHE.
Concise public communications is also going to be vital. Telling everyone to stay put is one thing, a more nuanced message quite another.
But this is not the same as treating us like fools....1 -
I'm not advocating that.Jonathan said:
If you are advocating a rise in death stats to free up the economy then you must have some people in mind. Who are you prepared to lose to get things moving again?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't want to lose anyone but eventually will lose everyone, its a fact of life.Jonathan said:
Who are you prepared to lose?Philip_Thompson said:
There are some fates worse than death which comes to all eventually.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.
There are pros and cons and only a fool looks at one side of the coin.
Its what we do in between that matters.
Even forgetting the economy it is worth remembering that the lockdown causes both direct and indirect deaths too. There will come a point when stopping things from moving will cause more deaths than it saves.
Who are you prepared to sacrifice to prevent others from dying due to a virus?0 -
Boris Johnson rose on Easter Sunday to save us all, no early exit from the /easing of the lockdown is further proof of that.
Can I get a testify?0 -
What we need now is more wartime metaphors.
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1251875182559494150/photo/1
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Has Johnson's near death experience turned him into a virus dove, who does not want to unlock until vaccine/sure the plague has passed? Before he became ill we were told his libertarian instincts were to the fore and kept the pubs open. Discuss?0
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Too many self seeking callous gits on here, only interests are their own petty lives and pockets and care not a jot for the rest, it is a very Tory centric view.Jonathan said:
Is it really better to put others at risk than suffer in purgatory?Casino_Royale said:
Excellent post. People will not tolerate purgatory.Black_Rook said:
I don't blame you: an awful lot of people will have been having thoughts along precisely the same lines. We have similar concerns about my husband's 80-year-old Mother, who lives on her own several hundred miles away. We would have been going on a visit next month but needless to say that's already been canned.OldKingCole said:Good morning pb-ers. Mournful thought from my wife and myself last night; will we ever get to hug our grandchildren again?
There are regular reports/speculation in the newspapers to the effect that older and medically vulnerable people will be made to lock themselves away for a year/eighteen months/until there's a vaccine/for the rest of their lives. None of this is realistic. Once this disaster has been ongoing for long enough, and the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations has been squashed down to a sufficiently low level, then I'm quite sure that people will venture out to make more visits to family and friends (regardless of whatever regulations are still in force at the time.)
Firstly there is an issue here of quality as well as quantity of life; secondly, to be blunt, there will come a point when a lot of people who are very old and/or in ill health reason that their chances of dying of something other than the virus whilst still observing lockdown are probably greater than those of dying prematurely of the virus itself, and that they might as well therefore roll the dice and enjoy being with people they love again.
As with the health versus economy dilemma, so there is also a health versus quality of life dilemma. There's clearly going to be no magic bullet solution to this disease in the next few weeks, so absent that governments and individuals will find their way towards a compromise that they can tolerate. Shielding for twelve weeks is going to knock the stuffing out of people as it is: they're not going to keep doing it indefinitely.
I fear those complaining about the pains of the lockdown haven’t experienced the pains of illness, hospitalisation or death and thereby are lucky enough to have an incomplete view of the situation.0 -
Sean, when you talk about yourself try not to be so obvious.Mysticrose said:
It'd be helpful if you had the humility to fess up to screwing up, as did your beloved Government. I'm rather fond of Boris right now but he made an utter hash of this until late March and has caused thousand more deaths than were necessary.squareroot2 said:
Well you guess wrong. I just question the experts who have suddenly appeared on here who seem to know all the answersand pillory the Govt.Mysticrose said:
Well I guess you would say that as you said coronavirus was a hoax and confidently predicted that daily death rates from the virus would be fewer in the UK than suicides: 16 deaths a day.squareroot2 said:
There are suddenly loads of experts on here with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.Mysticrose said:
They've done really well. It helped that a lot of their early cases were traceable to one event. Nevertheless they got their act together and avoided total lockdown. There was one weekend - 22/23rd Feb - when they asked everyone to stay indoors and they went on a mass deep clean, including tankers spraying in the streets. They introduced social distancing, they invented the term, and of course made face mask wearing mandatory in certain public places.Nigelb said:South Korea reported fewer than 20 new cases of coronavirus for the third day in a row.
On Monday it announced 13 new infections, bringing the nation’s total infections to 10,674.
On Sunday the country reported single-digit figures (8) of new cases, for the first time in two months. The country’s centre for disease control said seven of those cases came from overseas.
They're an exemplar.
We could have saved thousands of lives if we'd had the humility to learn from our betters.
So, no wonder you are infected by bitterness.
Some of us, especially those of us who have spent time in Asia like myself and Sean, had a fairly good idea of how dangerous this could turn out to be. We posted so many weeks back and the pillorying came from the likes of you. So, we're not jumped up experts. It's more that, like Fiver in Watership Down, we sniffed the ill wind that was blowing our way.0
