Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I am betting more on Warren being Biden’s VP pick

1235»

Comments

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    I have assumed that that would be the case from the start. I have never been one of those who expected a vaccine inside a year. My concern going forward is that we might never find a vaccine and that even herd immunity is a pipe dream. Imagine a world where everyone knows that by the age of 70 at the latest they effectively have to isolate for the rest of their lives or run a very high risk they will catch this thing and die. The common cold but with far deadlier consequences.
    There are alternatives to a vaccine or herd immunity. If an effective treatments can be found then even if you do catch it over age 70 then it needn’t be deadly. Indeed even now most who get it over that age have a better than 50% chance, and those odds can be improved further. So we have either a vaccine, herd immunity, an effective treatment, or squashing the virus now. I’m reasonably confident one of those will be achieved, likely the third one on current reporting, particularly on the Gilead antiviral trials. Based on media reports, the prospects for the first appear to me to be reasonable, as do the second but the fourth vanishingly small.

    While I am less confident than some others on the prospects for a vaccine, the arguments on here that we have no vaccine common cold because it’s a Coronavirus are not strictly accurate. There are several hundred virus strains that cause the common cold and, according to the US CDC, the most common is a rhinovirus. I think the multiplicity of virus strains has more to do with the failure to find a vaccine against the common cold than the type of viruses that cause it. Do correct me me if I’m wrong.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    It would be interesting Malc
    There would be plenty of arse kicking G, that is for sure and Gove would be lucky to be allowed to sweep the streets.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    As I have already said we should lockdown pre peak but no further, otherwise mass test and isolate the oldest
    How many end up in ICU and also take up hospital beds ?

  • I have to say Big G you're as bad as I used to be with Corbyn. As somebody who's been there, I would advise just a tad of introspection might help. I say this respectfully.

    And with respect I see no problem in trying to balance an outbreak of anti HMG from all sides with their own agendas

  • It shouldn't be about political point scoring.

    When it is all over questions will need to be answered.
    I agree 100% - but it is not all over, we are barely in the foothills
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,683
    eadric said:

    Ease up, Alastair. PB-ers are now losing parents, and it will probably get worse.
    Thank you, HMG!
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    An effective treatment would be game changer and may be identified or developed before a vaccine. There are lots of lines of attack so let's strike a more optimistic note!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    And with respect I see no problem in trying to balance an outbreak of anti HMG from all sides with their own agendas

    If balanced debate on how the Government has handled the Coronavirus crisis is off limits you are in the realms of Trumpland.

    The time is clearly not right for a post-pandemic analysis, but the time will come.
  • If balanced debate on how the Government has handled the Coronavirus crisis is off limits you are in the realms of Trumpland.

    The time is clearly not right for a post-pandemic analysis, but the time will come.
    And I look forward to it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Floater said:

    How many end up in ICU and also take up hospital beds ?

    Very few at the moment, hence we have multiple spare beds at the Nightingale and this is as we begin to move past the peak.

  • I think in general the Government has probably done as well as it could have, except the clear failures on PPE and testing.

    This seems to be in spite of Johnson, not because of him. But the effect seems to be the same.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    It shouldn't be about political point scoring.

    When it is all over questions will need to be answered.
    But I get a sense that some on the Left think there won't be any opportunity to stick the boot in when this is all over, so you know, fuck it, do it now....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746


    Since April 5 this thing has started behaving most oddly
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    I agree 100% - but it is not all over, we are barely in the foothills
    With all due respect you come across as being partisan for the sake of being partisan.

    Personally I am sticking by the government's handling, and I am not sure the time is right for The Times's expose of Government action/inaction in late February and early March.

    The time will come, and from where I am sitting it might not be pretty.
  • @Mexicanpete Much agree although I have become concerned in recent days that anyone criticising the Government is being attacked.

    We must be able to criticise the Government, it is absolutely essential. It is also essential to critique any criticism.

    Personally it's refreshing to see Labour not being partisan for the sake of being partisan. I think they were right to call for an exit strategy, which the Tories now seem to tacitly agree with.
  • But I get a sense that some on the Left think there won't be any opportunity to stick the boot in when this is all over, so you know, fuck it, do it now....
    There will certainly be a place for sensible criticism, something I hope Labour can now provide.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    But I get a sense that some on the Left think there won't be any opportunity to stick the boot in when this is all over, so you know, fuck it, do it now....
    One of the criticisms of Starmer is he has pretty well left the Government to their own devices.

    I happen to think, for the moment at least, the Government should be supported, that is not to say NHS staff claiming to be poorly resourced in terms of testing and PPE haven't got every right to shout about it from the rooftops. There are plenty who will claim they are lying.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited April 2020

    One of the criticisms of Starmer is he has pretty well left the Government to their own devices.

    I happen to think, for the moment at least, the Government should be supported, that is not to say NHS staff claiming to be poorly resourced in terms of testing and PPE haven't got every right to shout about it from the rooftops. There are plenty who will claim they are lying.
    * One of the criticisms of Starmer by the cranky left
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Deafbloke said:

    It looks to me like the deaths from the lockdown recession will also be in six figures. Figures from the Euro crisis in Greece show annual excess deaths of 15-20k per year. Adjusting for the UK's population indicates a death toll of 100-135k per year. It's difficult to see how the recession could be less severe if there is an intermittent lockdown into 2021 whilst a vaccine is sought.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)60250-6/fulltext
    Fortunately Conservatives have rejected the notion that austerity policies caused any excess deaths over the last 10 years.

    As a result there is no chance that the lockdown recession could cause any deaths.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • Do we predict more austerity?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DougSeal said:



    Since April 5 this thing has started behaving most oddly

    The effect of lockdown in most countries kicked in.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    * One of the criticisms of Starmer by the cranky left
    I don't think that is necessarily true.

    Anyone who seems to be critical of some part of the Government's handling of the pandemic, irrespective of political stripe are frustrated that Starmer hasn't been more vocal. For now I agree with Starmer.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205

    I think in general the Government has probably done as well as it could have, except the clear failures on PPE and testing.

    This seems to be in spite of Johnson, not because of him. But the effect seems to be the same.

    The trouble is no-one was running the show. No Minister of Supply or Production was appointed, and then both Boris and Cummings, who'd centralised power at Number 10, left the scene leaving chaos behind. Although Raab was nominally in charge, it looks like everyone knew he wasn't really.

    Politically, his own illness means Boris will escape blame.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    Very few at the moment, hence we have multiple spare beds at the Nightingale and this is as we begin to move past the peak.

    err - we are locked down right now - you want that to change
  • With all due respect you come across as being partisan for the sake of being partisan.

    Personally I am sticking by the government's handling, and I am not sure the time is right for The Times's expose of Government action/inaction in late February and early March.

    The time will come, and from where I am sitting it might not be pretty.
    I largely agree with that but most posters seem to be partisan to their cause, be it their party or brexit

    And I will call out Boris when I consider it is fair but right now is not the time

    I do think Matt Hancock has more of a problem, especially over his 100, 000 test promise
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    I largely agree with that but most posters seem to be partisan to their cause, be it their party or brexit

    And I will call out Boris when I consider it is fair but right now is not the time

    I do think Matt Hancock has more of a problem, especially over his 100, 000 test promise
    Hancock could argue he was just being ambitious. When everything shakes down Hancock will have more problems explaining away his comments that NHS staff were uneconomical with their PPE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Floater said:

    err - we are locked down right now - you want that to change
    Once we have passed the peak yes, then just control by mass testing and only lockdown again at the next peak.

    ICU capacity only becomes an issue at the peak
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    Any exit strategy has to come with a policy of telling the people the truth: Many tens of thousands will die, if we want to come out of lockdown.

    I don’t believe the Labour Party has the wits and guts to do that. But they may prove me wrong.
    Such remarks would have more credence if they came from someone not hiding out in a bunker full of handsanitiser and masks.

    Personally, I think a gradual relaxation, probably regional initially, and specific to strands of the economy could apply from early May.

    The time does need to be used productively, on research into better testing and treatment, and also acquisition of equipment and PPE.

    The country also would need to be accustomed to deaths running into the hundreds every day. Those who speak of herd immunity are mostly keen on other people dying, not themselves or their kin.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    Well, the logical alternative to not re-opening the schools is to abolish them and legislate to force one parent or guardian to remain at home with a child until they reach the age of 18. We dig out some of the ideas from the last Labour manifesto - give every household free broadband and IT equipment - and then the children do all of their learning remotely. We establish a central educational institute for providing lessons in all the various specialisms, assign each child one tutor to counsel them and to check personally on their progress, make the remainder of the teaching profession redundant and sell all the schools off for housing, which would help to pay off some of the costs of dealing with the pandemic and release an enormous bank of brownfield land for development.

    The first priority in all of this is to educate the children. If we then take it as read that we have no idea when we'll be able to abandon social distancing (and it could be years); that it is impossible to implement social distancing in the school environment; and that equipping every child and teacher with disposable full-body hazmat suits would result in an impossibly large requirement both for fresh PPE and the disposal of contaminated waste; then whatever solution to providing education that then remains, however radical, must be correct?

    School's out forever it is, then.
    That’s state schools. Independent schools would be face to face used by those who can afford them. That would go down well. Online learning is actually seen as a likely change in time but your idea of punishing parents for daring to have children would be a particularly hard sell.

    On the other hand, we could just plan for schools to restart in September when we are likely to have testing, tracking and tracing setup and so we don’t have to spread PPE even further, which seems a lot easier. Better than having it used as a ritual sacrifice to the gods of whatever for no measurable gain.

    There’s something to be said for changing the start of the school year to January, that would be an interesting idea. There is no real reason why we couldn’t have whatbwould have been the missed term starting in September and moving the start of the next year then.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,231
    Scott_xP said:
    Ah. The classic reasoning for criticism of criticism in politics. It's another irregular verb -

    I am completely objective
    You are partisan
    He is an idiot mouthpiece.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670

    Ah. The classic reasoning for criticism of criticism in politics. It's another irregular verb -

    I am completely objective
    You are partisan
    He is an idiot mouthpiece.
    Football players are as mercenary as it comes :-)
This discussion has been closed.