I see the twats on twitter have WheresBoris trending.
I am surprised he hasn't recorded a short message TBH
It seems reasonable to assume that the virus has absolutely wiped him out: Recovery will be slow & if he takes an active role in politics inside the next fortnight I’ll be surprised.
If they could roll him out for the press, even if only to stand and wave & look the part, they would have done. That he can’t even manage that speaks to how ill he was & how slow his recovery is.
He managed a video before he went away and had no difficulties waxing lyrically about how he had arisen etc. I think you are one of these mugs that are easily taken in. More likely in hiding so he can avoid the blame but pop up if any glory going. If he was bad at all he would not have gotten out of hospital after a few days.
for goodness sake how cynical you be?
With these absolute chancers you can be sure it is being stage managed to their benefit, that is all they care about. Given their view on the herd it is very obvious , the daily lies and bollox about how the public can not see the data etc. I would not trust him or his crappy cabinet ministers as far as I could throw them, they would have their granny under the bus if they could benefit themselves.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Yep but Glouc covers a 620k population according to their AR Univ Hosp. Bristol 959k population according to theirs
How long can dentists realistically remain closed? Already two weeks. Yes there are specialist clinics for those in need of literal life saving emergency treatment, but people suffering with a cavatity? The longer you leave that, the more emergencies you are going to get.
One thing's for certain , when they open ,there are bound to be teething problems
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
Clothing is essential if your children forgot to stop growing. Chiropodists (and I fear some older people might find it hard to get their shoes on after a few weeks without care). Dentists are more problematic because of saliva and PPE shortages.
Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
Restaurants run on pretty fine margins. Even if they're allowed to reopen, I don't know how many would be profitable with 10% or 20% reduction in customers.
My understanding is the evidence is prolonged close contact = more spread. And with restaurants, you're eating while someone else is talking to you. Highest risk I would have thought.
School dining halls? Staff canteens? They are effectively very big restaurants but without (so far as I know) any clusters reported.
universities? slow to fully shutdown and running full lectures until the middle of March. Ours had the canteen open until the 23rd.
OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....
Channel 5 showed Oliver this afternoon. Such a classic. My favourite musical of all time. My wife has never seen it and she watched the Consider Yourself sequence and nearly wept. The virus makes us all emotional
Whisky Galore is a gold standard B&W classic.
I think Rain Man is still on BBC Iplayer too. I'd forgotten quite how good that is...
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
I see the twats on twitter have WheresBoris trending.
I am surprised he hasn't recorded a short message TBH
It seems reasonable to assume that the virus has absolutely wiped him out: Recovery will be slow & if he takes an active role in politics inside the next fortnight I’ll be surprised.
If they could roll him out for the press, even if only to stand and wave & look the part, they would have done. That he can’t even manage that speaks to how ill he was & how slow his recovery is.
He managed a video before he went away and had no difficulties waxing lyrically about how he had arisen etc. I think you are one of these mugs that are easily taken in. More likely in hiding so he can avoid the blame but pop up if any glory going. If he was bad at all he would not have gotten out of hospital after a few days.
Psephologist, psychiatrist and ICU specialist! My we are blessed with your words of wisdom!
Even if you don't understand what "devolved" means!
It means power retained by arseholes in Westminster to keep people subjugated. A sap for lickspittles to pretend. PS: be interesting to see if the PPE that arrives from Turkey gets devolved or will it be retained.
If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.
Not ordering PPE is more likely to be the charge that sticks. I mean, how stupid is that? Even if the whole thing failed to take off, the PPE could be put in storage for a few years, ready for the next one.
Much of the disposable PPE has a shelf life. Early in this, California found it was the proud owner of millions of out of date n95 masks. There was an issue in France where PPE gowns that were out of date were issued - but literally fell apart when put on.
Disposable PPE sounds like a good idea, if you have cheap-as-chip-prices and vast volumes being shipped in all the time.
A question for Foxy - I have personally (for welding*) used both a face shield and a disposable mask, and as an alternative - a face covering mask with a powered air supply.
The setup with the face shield and the disposable mask resembles to an extent the pictures of PPE setup being used in hospitals around the world.
The thing I noticed was that the face shield/helmet is quite restricting if you want to move your head - it also opens gaps in the protection easily**.
I found the face mask - the one covering the entire front of the head, sealing around the edge of the face, supplied with blown air (filtered) much more comfortable and manoeuvrable..
Have you tried such systems?
* When welding stainless steel, you have to deal with chromium vapour. Which will destroy your lungs in very small doses. Hence the sensible treat it like playing with cyanide. ** Some electric welding methods put out insane amounts of UV. You can literally get a hospital grade sun burn in a matter of a few seconds.
Yes, the filtering respirators are in use in ICU , hoods for those that don't fit, for AGP (Aerosol Generating Procedures). The masks and visors are used for non AGP work.
How comfortable are the full face mask systems? - I really appreciated the air-conditioning effect from the blown air, and the edge of face seal felt much more comfortable than a separate mask/face shield setup... Another thing was the ease of taking it off/putting it on - once the straps were setup for me, it was pull on/pull off.
The hoods are very comfy, but very poor acoustically, with the wearer effectively deaf, and that can be an issue.
Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
When I asked some years ago why all our office kitchens had dishwashers fitted, I was told that it is a H&S hygiene requirement that all commercial restaurants wash their dishes and cutlery at > 70c (i.e. too high for hand washing).
So the question is: is 70c enough?
Nope. Well not according to the piece I read a day or two ago. I may have even posted a link here. Researchers had to get to 90 degrees to kill the bastard iirc.
you did.
Longer report reproduced here, editing & bold is mine:
The new coronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperatures, according to an experiment by a team of French scientists.
Professor Remi Charrel and colleagues at the Aix-Marseille University in southern France heated the virus that causes Covid-19 to 60 degrees Celsius (140 Fahrenheit) for an hour and found that some strains were still able to replicate. The scientists had to bring the temperature to almost boiling point to kill the virus completely, according to their non-peer-reviewed paper released on bioRxiv.org on Saturday.
The team in France infected African green monkey kidney cells, a standard host material for viral activity tests, with a strain isolated from a patient in Berlin, Germany. The cells were loaded into tubes representing two different types of environments, one “clean” and the other “dirty” with animal proteins to simulate biological contamination in real-life samples, such as an oral swab.
After the heating, the viral strains in the clean environment were thoroughly deactivated. Some strains in the dirty samples, however, survived. The heating process resulted in a clear drop in infectivity but enough living strains remained to be able to start another round of infection, said the paper.
There had been hope that hotter weather, such as that in Singapore or northern hemisphere countries heading into summer, might reduce the spread of Covid-19. The heating process resulted in a clear drop in infectivity but enough living strains remained to be able to start another round of infection, said the paper.
The 60-degrees Celsius, hour-long protocol has been adapted in many testing labs to suppress a wide range of deadly viruses, including Ebola. For the new coronavirus, this temperature may be enough for samples with low viral loads because it could kill a large proportion of the strains. But it may be dangerous for samples with extremely high amounts of the virus, according to the researchers.
The French team found a higher temperature could help solve the problem. For instance, heating the samples to 92 degrees Celsius for 15 minutes rendered the virus completely inactive.
“The results presented in this study should help to choose the best suited protocol for inactivation in order to prevent exposure of laboratory personnel in charge of direct and indirect detection of Sars-CoV-2 for diagnostic purpose,” wrote the authors.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
Clothing is essential if your children forgot to stop growing. Chiropodists (and I fear some older people might find it hard to get their shoes on after a few weeks without care). Dentists are more problematic because of saliva and PPE shortages.
Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
Hairdressers? I'm looking a bit like Tom Hanks in Cast Away.
At the risk of sounding like an armchair epidemiologist that I've just been bemoaning, can anyone see how any lifting of the lockdown doesn't increase the R0 - hence my guess that we're in for the long haul.....especially whilst numbers in hospitals are still high from BEFORE the lockdown.
OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....
Channel 5 showed Oliver this afternoon. Such a classic. My favourite musical of all time. My wife has never seen it and she watched the Consider Yourself sequence and nearly wept. The virus makes us all emotional
I gather some Americans raised eyebrows about school productions of Oliver, with its songs about pickpocketing, drinking, prostitution and all the rest.
OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....
Channel 5 showed Oliver this afternoon. Such a classic. My favourite musical of all time. My wife has never seen it and she watched the Consider Yourself sequence and nearly wept. The virus makes us all emotional
Whisky Galore is a gold standard B&W classic.
I think Rain Man is still on BBC Iplayer too. I'd forgotten quite how good that is...
OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....
Channel 5 showed Oliver this afternoon. Such a classic. My favourite musical of all time. My wife has never seen it and she watched the Consider Yourself sequence and nearly wept. The virus makes us all emotional
Oliver Reed is genuinely a scary man in that film. Probably true to life.
I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant
Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.
The Sunday Times article also includes plenty of snide comments about the PM and seems to be largely sourced from an unnamed "Downing Street Adviser" who seems to be blaming the PM personally for the perceived errors in the government's response to the virus.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the article it reads like a hatchet job.
It is strange. For two weeks we had no leaks from "unnamed Downing Street advisor". Then this appears shortly after Mr Cummings returned to work. Join the dots.
How long can dentists realistically remain closed? Already two weeks. Yes there are specialist clinics for those in need of literal life saving emergency treatment, but people suffering with a cavatity? The longer you leave that, the more emergencies you are going to get.
One thing's for certain , when they open ,there are bound to be teething problems
If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.
Not ordering PPE is more likely to be the charge that sticks. I mean, how stupid is that? Even if the whole thing failed to take off, the PPE could be put in storage for a few years, ready for the next one.
Much of the disposable PPE has a shelf life. Early in this, California found it was the proud owner of millions of out of date n95 masks. There was an issue in France where PPE gowns that were out of date were issued - but literally fell apart when put on.
Disposable PPE sounds like a good idea, if you have cheap-as-chip-prices and vast volumes being shipped in all the time.
A question for Foxy - I have personally (for welding*) used both a face shield and a disposable mask, and as an alternative - a face covering mask with a powered air supply.
The setup with the face shield and the disposable mask resembles to an extent the pictures of PPE setup being used in hospitals around the world.
The thing I noticed was that the face shield/helmet is quite restricting if you want to move your head - it also opens gaps in the protection easily**.
I found the face mask - the one covering the entire front of the head, sealing around the edge of the face, supplied with blown air (filtered) much more comfortable and manoeuvrable..
Have you tried such systems?
* When welding stainless steel, you have to deal with chromium vapour. Which will destroy your lungs in very small doses. Hence the sensible treat it like playing with cyanide. ** Some electric welding methods put out insane amounts of UV. You can literally get a hospital grade sun burn in a matter of a few seconds.
Yes, the filtering respirators are in use in ICU , hoods for those that don't fit, for AGP (Aerosol Generating Procedures). The masks and visors are used for non AGP work.
How comfortable are the full face mask systems? - I really appreciated the air-conditioning effect from the blown air, and the edge of face seal felt much more comfortable than a separate mask/face shield setup... Another thing was the ease of taking it off/putting it on - once the straps were setup for me, it was pull on/pull off.
They are reasonably comfortable, or so I am told by those who have them, at least for a few hours. The hoods are very comfy, but very poor acoustically, with the wearer effectively deaf, and that can be an issue.
Sounds like someone should talk to industry - speaker/mike system to make PPE kit "transparent" to the outside world exist already. Being able to speak and hear on a construction site is a massive safety issue.
Hell, the military (now popular with civilians in the US) have rigs for use with ear defender/NBC which cut down loud sounds, like gun shots, while giving *enhanced* hearing for soft sounds.
I tried one system - Standing next to a pneumatic drill going full bore, I had a normal conversation with someone wearing a similar rig.
Not sure why he promised such a huge number if his SK point is true.
Well, we've got far more infections than SK ever did.
SK's max was 18k tests on a single day in early March, but that was an isolated peak - they did 94k that week (ie 13.5k/day), and 10.5k/day over March. They were never doing massive amounts, it was always very targeted.
Schools has a really big economic impact... wonder if they will try to keep them open over the Summer (*ducks for incoming fire from teachers*).
I have said this before, why not start an extended autumn term in July?
Gove is a fan of a longer school year anyway I believe. I think it's very plausible they will try this. Expect a Summer of arguments about how many hours teachers work/how long school holidays are or should be...
If the summer holidays are abolished, does that mean I get to book annual leave when I like and not based on the tradition that children need to help with the harvest?
More seriously, I would be more than willing to see holidays shortened, but only if the teaching week was cut from five days to four. That way, I would have time to get on with all my out of classroom work on the extra day, leaving the weekend to catch up on (a) sleep and (b) all my housework, gardening, personal finances etc that I never have time for in the school term because of the insane hours.
However, Gove was a fan of longer school days and longer school terms largely because he saw it as a way of punishing teachers for daring to question the genius of himself and Cummings. He doesn’t have a clue what would be involved or how many teachers would instantly walk away, and because he’s an arrogant and petty little shit he wouldn’t care either.
or he'd seen the various studies that strongly suggest that discrepancies in pupil performance develop not when they are in the classroom but when they are out of it.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics
Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
Firstly, 200,000 people did not attend Cheltenham. The Festival lasts four days and many racegoers will go for more than one day; you can't naively multiply the daily attendance by four. Let's call it 80,000. And around 15,000 of those will be from Ireland so why have the Irish doctors not reported hundreds of patients back from the races?
Quite. It is AMAZING how successful this panic has been at creating armchair epidemiologists. I suspect none will be held accountable at the inquiry, afterwards, however...
I think I preferred them when they were all experts in psephology, or before that, constitutional law.
OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....
Channel 5 showed Oliver this afternoon. Such a classic. My favourite musical of all time. My wife has never seen it and she watched the Consider Yourself sequence and nearly wept. The virus makes us all emotional
Whisky Galore is a gold standard B&W classic.
I think Rain Man is still on BBC Iplayer too. I'd forgotten quite how good that is...
Great music
Yes! Something I only noticed re-watching it this time.
How long can dentists realistically remain closed? Already two weeks. Yes there are specialist clinics for those in need of literal life saving emergency treatment, but people suffering with a cavatity? The longer you leave that, the more emergencies you are going to get.
One thing's for certain , when they open ,there are bound to be teething problems
No problems filling slots
Or maybe dentist reopening would be a bridge too far
I applaud the sentiment, and am a big fan of liberty for its own sake, but I don't think prosperity does actually need it.
Hong Kong is by far the most prosperous part of China
That's wonderful. That doesn't change the fact that many places have seen increases in prosperity without being huge on liberty. A certain amount of it seems to be key, but you can achieve great increases in prosperity without being keen on it. It'd be great if you did have to be, there's be less risk of places backsliding or remaining authoritarian dictatorships if it were an absolute requirement.
Just read the speech and it could reasonably be interpreted as opposing moves to mercantalist economic restrictions in the aftermath of a virus.
I think it was more of a veiled criticism of Trump's travel ban on foreign nationals who had been to China, that was announced a couple of days before the speech.
Not sure why he promised such a huge number if his SK point is true.
Well, we've got far more infections than SK ever did.
SK's max was 18k on a single day in early March, but that was an isolated peak - they did 94k that week (ie 13.5k/day), and 10.5k/day over March. They were never doing massive amounts, it was always very targeted.
Not just targetted. Fast and carefully prioritized. Its no good doing 20k tests if you don't get the results for 2-3 days.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics
Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
I went to Cheltenham for a couple of days this year .I can assure you not many of the 200K were actually from Cheltenham
I was thinking that. Cheltenham Festival is hardly full of locals
Errrr. The theory would be that all those festival-goers brought the virus TO Cheltenham, infecting the locals in bars and shops and hotels. Hence now a possible cluster in Cheltenham
Christ. This isn’t quantum physics
Errrr - a bit like a London resident moving to the country to escape the plague? This is what you were at least saying you were going to do ? Presumably you did?
OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....
DEVS on iPlayer BBC3 is an interesting thriller involving Copenhagen, pilot waves and Everett.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics
Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
Firstly, 200,000 people did not attend Cheltenham. The Festival lasts four days and many racegoers will go for more than one day; you can't naively multiply the daily attendance by four. Let's call it 80,000. And around 15,000 of those will be from Ireland so why have the Irish doctors not reported hundreds of patients back from the races?
Quite. It is AMAZING how successful this panic has been at creating armchair epidemiologists. I suspect none will be held accountable at the inquiry, afterwards, however...
I think I preferred them when they were all experts in psephology, or before that, constitutional law.
:-)
My single favourite polling story (was it ever verified?) was the 52/48 predicted by the huge poll of cash machine users just before the referendum.
It annoyed me slightly, as I suggested a similar poll by inserting a question on pin machines in supermarkets to a techy friend only a year or so earlier!
Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
When I asked some years ago why all our office kitchens had dishwashers fitted, I was told that it is a H&S hygiene requirement that all commercial restaurants wash their dishes and cutlery at > 70c (i.e. too high for hand washing).
So the question is: is 70c enough?
Detergent.
IIRC a number of years ago some studies were done in the NHS - they found that dishwashers on a high temperature cycle were just as effective at sterilising as specialist systems. The combination of blasting hot water everywhere, combined with the detergent was very effective.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I applaud the sentiment, and am a big fan of liberty for its own sake, but I don't think prosperity does actually need it.
Hong Kong is by far the most prosperous part of China
That's wonderful. That doesn't change the fact that many places have seen increases in prosperity without being huge on liberty. A certain amount of it seems to be key, but you can achieve great increases in prosperity without being keen on it. It'd be great if you did have to be, there's be less risk of places backsliding or remaining authoritarian dictatorships if it were an absolute requirement.
Like where? East Germany is still less prosperous than West Germany.
Cuba is still one of the poorest parts of Latin America and South Korea is far nore prosperous than North Korea.
The only exception is the Gulf states but that is only because they have masses of oil
At the risk of sounding like an armchair epidemiologist that I've just been bemoaning, can anyone see how any lifting of the lockdown doesn't increase the R0 - hence my guess that we're in for the long haul.....especially whilst numbers in hospitals are still high from BEFORE the lockdown.
@EdmundInTokyo was talking about targeted measures earlier. As we learn more about the virus we might conclude, for example, that retail is generally quite safe (if, say, the virus generally doesn't spread via objects), that parents don't catch the virus from their children, etc, so that we could reopen large parts of society while keeping others (audience events, choirs and office meetings, perhaps) restricted.
How long can dentists realistically remain closed? Already two weeks. Yes there are specialist clinics for those in need of literal life saving emergency treatment, but people suffering with a cavatity? The longer you leave that, the more emergencies you are going to get.
One thing's for certain , when they open ,there are bound to be teething problems
No problems filling slots
The problem is that all dental procedures are aerosol generating, so require either reliable testing or full PPE under present guidance, and as we know that is in short supply.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics
Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
I went to Cheltenham for a couple of days this year .I can assure you not many of the 200K were actually from Cheltenham
I was thinking that. Cheltenham Festival is hardly full of locals
Errrr. The theory would be that all those festival-goers brought the virus TO Cheltenham, infecting the locals in bars and shops and hotels. Hence now a possible cluster in Cheltenham
Christ. This isn’t quantum physics
Oh is that why everyone’s looking for a Cheltenham related outbreak in Ireland?
Schools has a really big economic impact... wonder if they will try to keep them open over the Summer (*ducks for incoming fire from teachers*).
I have said this before, why not start an extended autumn term in July?
Gove is a fan of a longer school year anyway I believe. I think it's very plausible they will try this. Expect a Summer of arguments about how many hours teachers work/how long school holidays are or should be...
If the summer holidays are abolished, does that mean I get to book annual leave when I like and not based on the tradition that children need to help with the harvest?
More seriously, I would be more than willing to see holidays shortened, but only if the teaching week was cut from five days to four. That way, I would have time to get on with all my out of classroom work on the extra day, leaving the weekend to catch up on (a) sleep and (b) all my housework, gardening, personal finances etc that I never have time for in the school term because of the insane hours.
However, Gove was a fan of longer school days and longer school terms largely because he saw it as a way of punishing teachers for daring to question the genius of himself and Cummings. He doesn’t have a clue what would be involved or how many teachers would instantly walk away, and because he’s an arrogant and petty little shit he wouldn’t care either.
or he'd seen the various studies that strongly suggest that discrepancies in pupil performance develop not when they are in the classroom but when they are out of it.
Formulating policies based on studies rather than spite would have been out of character.
At the risk of sounding like an armchair epidemiologist that I've just been bemoaning, can anyone see how any lifting of the lockdown doesn't increase the R0 - hence my guess that we're in for the long haul.....especially whilst numbers in hospitals are still high from BEFORE the lockdown.
@EdmundInTokyo was talking about targeted measures earlier. As we learn more about the virus we might conclude, for example, that retail is generally quite safe (if, say, the virus generally doesn't spread via objects), that parents don't catch the virus from their children, etc, so that we could reopen large parts of society while keeping others (audience events, choirs and office meetings, perhaps) restricted.
But the issue is surely that it is still spreading despite the lockdown, at around an R of 1. So even if retail is relatively safe (I can promise you that I won't be opening my shop to put my staff at risk, anytime soon), that bit which isn't (talking to staff, paying etc) is going to increase the spread and then create another peak....
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I have no idea. But it is happening in other countries.
So in the end Boris capitulated and it was left to Sweden to be the libertarian champion against lockdown ironically
Yes . at least it was not his instinct to impose lockdown , made people warm to him unlike a lot in power who seem to relish it (especially some high ranking police )
At the risk of sounding like an armchair epidemiologist that I've just been bemoaning, can anyone see how any lifting of the lockdown doesn't increase the R0 - hence my guess that we're in for the long haul.....especially whilst numbers in hospitals are still high from BEFORE the lockdown.
R or R_t.
R_0 is the base rate. Although its a bit more complicated than that.
There will be policies that increase R only by very small amounts and others that will increase it by much more.
And on the other hand, you have police threatening to arrest lone people sunbathing in the park while gathering with large crowds on Westminster Bridge to 'Clap the NHS'. There is only a certain amount of sustainability to any lockdown, let alone ours which is being policed mostly by a general sense of shared purpose.
How long can dentists realistically remain closed? Already two weeks. Yes there are specialist clinics for those in need of literal life saving emergency treatment, but people suffering with a cavatity? The longer you leave that, the more emergencies you are going to get.
One thing's for certain , when they open ,there are bound to be teething problems
No problems filling slots
The problem is that all dental procedures are aerosol generating, so require either reliable testing or full PPE under present guidance, and as we know that is in short supply.
Yes but that answer hasnt got the words bridge or filling or any other dental term so although interesting is not a winner in the dentist opening wide pun game!!
I applaud the sentiment, and am a big fan of liberty for its own sake, but I don't think prosperity does actually need it.
Hong Kong is by far the most prosperous part of China
That's wonderful. That doesn't change the fact that many places have seen increases in prosperity without being huge on liberty. A certain amount of it seems to be key, but you can achieve great increases in prosperity without being keen on it. It'd be great if you did have to be, there's be less risk of places backsliding or remaining authoritarian dictatorships if it were an absolute requirement.
Like where? East Germany is still less prosperous than West Germany.
Cuba is still one of the poorest parts of Latin America and South Korea is far nore prosperous than North Korea.
The only exception is the Gulf states but that is only because they have masses of oil
As is ever the case you ignore the point so you can make a completely different one which you prefer. I don't recall saying that places without liberty were more properous than those with more liberty, I said you can be prosperous without it. It was a point about how for instance, in a good news story as it happens, there have been vast improvements against global poverty in recent decades, even in places without great liberty. Places run by awful regimes have seen some great improvements in that regard. If liberty were a prerequisite, they could not have done so.
So I don't think I'll take your circular evasiveness on this occasion. If you're trying to make the argument that you cannot be pretty prosperous if you are less prosperous than somewhere else, you're an idiot. If you think I'm saying liberty is not something people should want, you're a bigger idiot. I think people would be better off being prosperous and having as much liberty as we enjoy, and more. But people have demonstrably seen improvements in the former without getting the latter.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
But much better than the England average. Isn't that telling us the effect was small? (Probably because all the punters left Cheltenham afterwards!)
How long can dentists realistically remain closed? Already two weeks. Yes there are specialist clinics for those in need of literal life saving emergency treatment, but people suffering with a cavatity? The longer you leave that, the more emergencies you are going to get.
One thing's for certain , when they open ,there are bound to be teething problems
I applaud the sentiment, and am a big fan of liberty for its own sake, but I don't think prosperity does actually need it.
Hong Kong is by far the most prosperous part of China
That's wonderful. That doesn't change the fact that many places have seen increases in prosperity without being huge on liberty. A certain amount of it seems to be key, but you can achieve great increases in prosperity without being keen on it. It'd be great if you did have to be, there's be less risk of places backsliding or remaining authoritarian dictatorships if it were an absolute requirement.
Like where? East Germany is still less prosperous than West Germany.
Cuba is still one of the poorest parts of Latin America and South Korea is far nore prosperous than North Korea.
The only exception is the Gulf states but that is only because they have masses of oil
As is ever the case you ignore the point so you can make a completely different one which you prefer. I don't recall saying that places without liberty were more properous than those with more liberty, I said you can be prosperous without it. It was a point about how for instance, in a good news story as it happens, there have been vast improvements against global poverty in recent decades, even in places without great liberty. Places run by awful regimes have seen some great improvements in that regard. If liberty were a prerequisite, they could not have done so.
So I don't think I'll take your circular evasiveness on this occasion. If you're trying to make the argument that you cannot be pretty prosperous if you are less prosperous than somewhere else, you're an idiot. If you think I'm saying liberty is not something people should want, you're a bigger idiot. I think people would be better off being prosperous and having as much liberty as we enjoy, and more. But people have demonstrably seen improvements in the former without getting the latter.
Eastern Europe for example only became more prosperous once the Berlin Wall fell down and the USSR collapsed
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
But much better than the England average. Isn't that telling us the effect was small? (Probably because all the punters left Cheltenham afterwards!)
I can’t imagine many people who go to Cheltenham Races spend any time in Cheltenham itself. The racecourse is on the northern edge of the town and it’s not that easy to get to from the town. You’d be better off going in from Bishop’s Cleeve, Winchcombe or Tewkesbury.
The staff, of course, are a different matter, but I would have thought at least as many would come from Gloucester as from Cheltenham. Many of them will be outside contractors as well.
Indeed, if I were feeling mischievous I might speculate that the cluster is just as likely to be caused by all those ER protestors based in Stroud taking their swanky land rovers, er, bicycles up to London to put up cretinous posters boasting about how mass death is a good thing - and bringing the plague back with them.
I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant
Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.
The Sunday Times article also includes plenty of snide comments about the PM and seems to be largely sourced from an unnamed "Downing Street Adviser" who seems to be blaming the PM personally for the perceived errors in the government's response to the virus.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the article it reads like a hatchet job.
It is strange. For two weeks we had no leaks from "unnamed Downing Street advisor". Then this appears shortly after Mr Cummings returned to work. Join the dots.
They are a pretty compelling set of dots to join, but... The PM's chief SPAD briefing against the PM? That can't end well.
On Cheltenham I assume we have a fair few gamblers here .I know we have a fair few drinkers. When this is over I recommend a trip to the Cheltenham Festival strongly - To me it is the best sporting event in the world . The mix of drinking , people having a good time but not loutishly like you can get at football or certainly around football or rugby , gambling (no need to do it to excess to experience the thrill at Cheltenham and the drama as most races come down to a close finish with horses thundering up the finishing hill is electric.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I have no idea. But it is happening in other countries.
With parents keeping their children away, with schools having to use tents to keep students apart and so on. Some people are too dim to read beyond a headline. It’s a travesty of education. The teaching union demands are clear. Not until all staff and students have been tested and that this continues to be done as a matter of routine, that all existing social distancing requirements are fully met and class sizes reduced accordingly, that all students and parents opting in to it are connected to tracking/tracing and that PPE is given to all students and staff. Once we are promised that, we can discuss when it will happen.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I have no idea. But it is happening in other countries.
With parents keeping their children away, with schools having to use tents to keep students apart and so on. Some people are too dim to read beyond a headline. It’s a travesty of education. The teaching union demands are clear. Not until all staff and students have been tested and that this continues to be done as a matter of routine, that all students and parents are connected to tracking/tracing and that PPE is given to all students and staff. Once we are promised that, we can discuss when it will happen.
I mean, that isn't going to happen in weeks, let alone months. I can't see any return of children to school this school year.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
It spreads where people forcefully expel air. Cheering, shouting, singing, yelling.
If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.
I sense after weeks of giving the media pelters for asking the wrong questions that there's going to be a sustained period of the usual suspects slagging the media for asking the right questions.
I sense the new PB Tory strategy is that if goes right it's all down to Boris, if it goes tits up it's all down to the Civil Servants.
If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.
Not really, at that time the scientific assessment was low risk. The issue was with the assessment not being correct.
Risk level was raised from low to medium on 30th of January. To be skipping Cobra meetings in February...
So in the end Boris capitulated and it was left to Sweden to be the libertarian champion against lockdown ironically
Boris should be okay. Politically he doesn’t need the anti-lockdown brigade. And many/most of them are turning their ire squarely on the Civil Service and (lefty academic) scientists anyway (in accordance with their ‘us versus the ruling elite’ comfort zone). The libertarian cohort no longer has the focus or the numbers to cause Boris much bother.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I have no idea. But it is happening in other countries.
With parents keeping their children away, with schools having to use tents to keep students apart and so on. Some people are too dim to read beyond a headline. It’s a travesty of education. The teaching union demands are clear. Not until all staff and students have been tested and that this continues to be done as a matter of routine, that all students and parents are connected to tracking/tracing and that PPE is given to all students and staff. Once we are promised that, we can discuss when it will happen.
I mean, that isn't going to happen in weeks, let alone months. I can't see any return of children to school this school year.
I think most parents appreciate that too. When a major vector of transmission is small indoor spaces with people breathing around each other, where groups that gather and then disperse are major multipliers of infection and where the silent spreaders (young people mainly it appears) do so whilst barely knowing they have it, you are primed to kill staff, parents and grandparents. It’s nothing short of manslaughter and that’s how I envisage anyone who, from their position of ignorance, demands that it should happen. It would be useful if they put their bravery to the test and volunteered for such an experiment instead.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I have no idea. But it is happening in other countries.
I can only assume that the countries contemplating re-opening the schools believe that the benefits of so doing outweigh those of increasing transmission of the disease, and that said increase will be sufficiently small that they can get away with it. Well, I suppose we'll soon find out. Aren't the Danes all set to re-open their primary schools, for example?
Certainly it's impossible to freeze all the students in place, because children do have this annoying habit of getting older. If we're going to wait until social distancing can be dispensed with before opening the schools then it's certainly going to be later than September, it's unlikely to happen before Christmas even if the Oxford research group or a similar vaccine project elsewhere in the world strikes gold, and it might not happen until the Christmas after that or even later. So what the Hell happens then?
The children who have a parent who can stay at home the whole time *and* who has the discipline and wherewithal to make them sit in front of all their remote lessons and ensure that they do them - which certainly won't be more than a minority - might be able to keep up successfully with their learning. All the rest of them will require remedial classes for God knows how long to catch up, or will simply end up pig ignorant and feral.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I have no idea. But it is happening in other countries.
I can only assume that the countries contemplating re-opening the schools believe that the benefits of so doing outweigh those of increasing transmission of the disease, and that said increase will be sufficiently small that they can get away with it. Well, I suppose we'll soon find out. Aren't the Danes all set to re-open their primary schools, for example?
Certainly it's impossible to freeze all the students in place, because children do have this annoying habit of getting older. If we're going to wait until social distancing can be dispensed with before opening the schools then it's certainly going to be later than September, it's unlikely to happen before Christmas even if the Oxford research group or a similar vaccine project elsewhere in the world strikes gold, and it might not happen until the Christmas after that or even later. So what the Hell happens then?
The children who have a parent who can stay at home the whole time *and* who has the discipline and wherewithal to make them sit in front of all their remote lessons and ensure that they do them - which certainly won't be more than a minority - might be able to keep up successfully with their learning. All the rest of them will require remedial classes for God knows how long to catch up, or will simply end up pig ignorant and feral.
Schools need to re-open for all sorts of reasons including fairness and a respite for a significant number who don't have nice cosy homes.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics
Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
Both the Spitfire and Hurricane were supposed to be stop gaps - until the "proper" 1940/41 designs flew. These were for 450mph fighters, uniformly armed with cannon and powered by 2000hp engines. It was the failure of the planned replacements that resulted in the Spitfire serving until the end of the war.
Well they just about managed that by '43-44ish with the Spitfire.
Pretty much by accident - Joe Smith managed that, those his later jet designs were... not inspiring. The Griffon was a happy accident.... though it made some Spitfires a pilot killer. The Seafire Mk15 was death trap, for example.
The Mustang showed what a proper clean sheet design could have done - the bit that gets missed all the time was the massive difference in economical cruise speed.
The very Mustangy Martin Baker 5 might have ticked all these boxes.
Edit: in checking Wiki, Eric Winkle Brown thought the MB 5 was 'outstanding'.
I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant
Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.
The Sunday Times article also includes plenty of snide comments about the PM and seems to be largely sourced from an unnamed "Downing Street Adviser" who seems to be blaming the PM personally for the perceived errors in the government's response to the virus.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the article it reads like a hatchet job.
Either he attended the Feb Cobra meetings or he didn't. Must be easy to verify one way or the other.
I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant
Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.
The Sunday Times article also includes plenty of snide comments about the PM and seems to be largely sourced from an unnamed "Downing Street Adviser" who seems to be blaming the PM personally for the perceived errors in the government's response to the virus.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the article it reads like a hatchet job.
Either he attended the Feb Cobra meetings or he didn't. Must be easy to verify one way or the other.
Not sure it matters - He had no immediate decision to make in Feb other than let the experts advise and gather stats
Both the Spitfire and Hurricane were supposed to be stop gaps - until the "proper" 1940/41 designs flew. These were for 450mph fighters, uniformly armed with cannon and powered by 2000hp engines. It was the failure of the planned replacements that resulted in the Spitfire serving until the end of the war.
Well they just about managed that by '43-44ish with the Spitfire.
Pretty much by accident - Joe Smith managed that, those his later jet designs were... not inspiring. The Griffon was a happy accident.... though it made some Spitfires a pilot killer. The Seafire Mk15 was death trap, for example.
The Mustang showed what a proper clean sheet design could have done - the bit that gets missed all the time was the massive difference in economical cruise speed.
The very Mustangy Martin Baker 5 might have ticked all these boxes.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
It spreads where people forcefully expel air. Cheering, shouting, singing, yelling.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I have no idea. But it is happening in other countries.
With parents keeping their children away, with schools having to use tents to keep students apart and so on. Some people are too dim to read beyond a headline. It’s a travesty of education. The teaching union demands are clear. Not until all staff and students have been tested and that this continues to be done as a matter of routine, that all existing social distancing requirements are fully met and class sizes reduced accordingly, that all students and parents opting in to it are connected to tracking/tracing and that PPE is given to all students and staff. Once we are promised that, we can discuss when it will happen.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
It spreads where people forcefully expel air. Cheering, shouting, singing, yelling.
As per that choral group in Oregon, or was it Washington State, where all those people got infected in one go and several of them died?
It's possibly not a bad rule of thumb. Thus, discretionary retail, cafes, restaurants, museums, country houses and gardens (and possibly places of worship, if they're sensible and stick to prayer and preaching but avoid singing) could all reopen subject to social distancing constraints. Rowdy places like bars, music venues, amusement parks and sports grounds, as well as gyms and leisure centres, stay shut.
That might be how things unfold, but we'll just have to wait and see what the scientists think they can get away with I suppose.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
It spreads where people forcefully expel air. Cheering, shouting, singing, yelling.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
It spreads where people forcefully expel air. Cheering, shouting, singing, yelling.
As per that choral group in Oregon, or was it Washington State, where all those people got infected in one go and several of them died?
It's possibly not a bad rule of thumb. Thus, discretionary retail, cafes, restaurants, museums, country houses and gardens (and possibly places of worship, if they're sensible and stick to prayer and preaching but avoid singing) could all reopen subject to social distancing constraints. Rowdy places like bars, music venues, amusement parks and sports grounds, as well as gyms and leisure centres, stay shut.
That might be how things unfold, but we'll just have to wait and see what the scientists think they can get away with I suppose.
Looks like they have hit their goal but this really was a bit of and "Oh" moment for me about the effect of the lockdown, more even than me being moved to a 3 day week.
Some things are going to have to change after all this over. Social Care mess is another.
This makes me very cynical. "Can't do anything about homelessness". Suddenly we can sort it all out in the instant, when those homeless might give us the plague.
A note of caution - we haven't actually sorted out homelessness, we've just corralled rough sleepers into temporary accommodation and made it very difficult for them to leave. This doesn't resolve the core issues most rough sleepers are facing; whether that's addiction, severe mental illness, inability to hold a job, etc. After this is all over, we could probably keep locking rough sleepers in hotels, but those core issues will still be there and resolving them is the primary challenge.
A very good note of caution. Nevertheless I welcome them finding accommodation for homeless people, when it was impossible before, at the point when they might become a problem for the rest of us. Even if it makes me a little cynical.
I think it's more that the immediate, 'blunt force' option of essentially sectioning rough sleepers (without spending very large sums of money providing specialist support to solve the fact they're sleeping rough to begin with) is now politically viable when it wasn't before. Before the outbreak, if the government had tried to do what they're doing now, they would be crucified in the court of public opinion, there would be parallels drawn with the Nazis rounding up undesirables to put them in camps, and on top of that it would be extremely difficult to justify the large per capita spending on specialists, therapists and social workers needed to help rough sleepers at a time where other priorities are being squeezed. The shift in the Overton Window created by the outbreak, hopefully, will lead to public opinion changing and the government will have room to spend the money needed to solve the issues that lead to rough sleeping.
So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with: biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.
So my guess would be: non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back. some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football museums, national trust properties etc.
On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.
The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family. Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...
What do others reckon?
Primary schools re-open.
You clearly have no idea.
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
I have no idea. But it is happening in other countries.
With parents keeping their children away, with schools having to use tents to keep students apart and so on. Some people are too dim to read beyond a headline. It’s a travesty of education. The teaching union demands are clear. Not until all staff and students have been tested and that this continues to be done as a matter of routine, that all existing social distancing requirements are fully met and class sizes reduced accordingly, that all students and parents opting in to it are connected to tracking/tracing and that PPE is given to all students and staff. Once we are promised that, we can discuss when it will happen.
You might be disappointed.
Err, did you miss the word union? You’re happy to spread this virus, though. I was demanding lockdown while you were swanning around the slopes. You and people like you should be taking these risks, not those who actually gave a damn when it was necessary.
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..
Thank you for taking the time to find this. I did try to find something similar but gave up. Doesn’t seem unusually bad in Cheltenham, despite what the tweeter is claiming.
Gloucestershire is the worst in the southwest. It is certainly circumstantial evidence to support the thesis.
We know this bug loves to spread with big crowds in bars, cafes. Churches. Shrines. Restaurants. Stadia.
It spreads where people forcefully expel air. Cheering, shouting, singing, yelling.
As per that choral group in Oregon, or was it Washington State, where all those people got infected in one go and several of them died?
It's possibly not a bad rule of thumb. Thus, discretionary retail, cafes, restaurants, museums, country houses and gardens (and possibly places of worship, if they're sensible and stick to prayer and preaching but avoid singing) could all reopen subject to social distancing constraints. Rowdy places like bars, music venues, amusement parks and sports grounds, as well as gyms and leisure centres, stay shut.
That might be how things unfold, but we'll just have to wait and see what the scientists think they can get away with I suppose.
Old Trafford will be ok to open then
Nobody caught it going to the Emirates that's for certain.
The UK government (right or wrongly ) deliberately killed 25,000 in the fire bombing of Dresden in one night. Not sure why we are destroying the economy and kids lives to protect against a virus that will need to be got by a large amount of the population anyway before it goes away.
The UK government (right or wrongly ) deliberately killed 25,000 in the fire bombing of Dresden in one night. Not sure why we are destroying the economy and kids lives to protect against a virus that will need to be got by a large amount of the population anyway before it goes away.
So recommendation is no precautions should be taken at all then?
Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics
Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
I went to Cheltenham for a couple of days this year .I can assure you not many of the 200K were actually from Cheltenham
I was thinking that. Cheltenham Festival is hardly full of locals
Errrr. The theory would be that all those festival-goers brought the virus TO Cheltenham, infecting the locals in bars and shops and hotels. Hence now a possible cluster in Cheltenham
Christ. This isn’t quantum physics
Oh is that why everyone’s looking for a Cheltenham related outbreak in Ireland?
The Irish race goers would be dispersed throughout the country so unlikely to create a hot spot. If there is a hot spot around Cheltenham it will have started with the staff in the bars and hotels and spread from there. Same reason that the Health Director of Liverpool Council has recently stated that letting the Liverpool/Madrid match go ahead was a mistake.
The UK government (right or wrongly ) deliberately killed 25,000 in the fire bombing of Dresden in one night. Not sure why we are destroying the economy and kids lives to protect against a virus that will need to be got by a large amount of the population anyway before it goes away.
So recommendation is no precautions should be taken at all then?
well I get the trying to slow it to allow the NHS to not get overwhelmed to some extent and sensible social distancing measures are fine but schools need to open as to large parts of the economy as soon as possible . We will have an awful time coping with the poverty and inflation and depression that is coming becasue of this lockdown
Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
When I asked some years ago why all our office kitchens had dishwashers fitted, I was told that it is a H&S hygiene requirement that all commercial restaurants wash their dishes and cutlery at > 70c (i.e. too high for hand washing).
So the question is: is 70c enough?
Nope. Well not according to the piece I read a day or two ago. I may have even posted a link here. Researchers had to get to 90 degrees to kill the bastard iirc.
you did.
Longer report reproduced here, editing & bold is mine:
The new coronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperatures, according to an experiment by a team of French scientists.
Professor Remi Charrel and colleagues at the Aix-Marseille University in southern France heated the virus that causes Covid-19 to 60 degrees Celsius (140 Fahrenheit) for an hour and found that some strains were still able to replicate. The scientists had to bring the temperature to almost boiling point to kill the virus completely, according to their non-peer-reviewed paper released on bioRxiv.org on Saturday.
The team in France infected African green monkey kidney cells, a standard host material for viral activity tests, with a strain isolated from a patient in Berlin, Germany. The cells were loaded into tubes representing two different types of environments, one “clean” and the other “dirty” with animal proteins to simulate biological contamination in real-life samples, such as an oral swab.
After the heating, the viral strains in the clean environment were thoroughly deactivated. Some strains in the dirty samples, however, survived. The heating process resulted in a clear drop in infectivity but enough living strains remained to be able to start another round of infection, said the paper.
There had been hope that hotter weather, such as that in Singapore or northern hemisphere countries heading into summer, might reduce the spread of Covid-19. The heating process resulted in a clear drop in infectivity but enough living strains remained to be able to start another round of infection, said the paper.
The 60-degrees Celsius, hour-long protocol has been adapted in many testing labs to suppress a wide range of deadly viruses, including Ebola. For the new coronavirus, this temperature may be enough for samples with low viral loads because it could kill a large proportion of the strains. But it may be dangerous for samples with extremely high amounts of the virus, according to the researchers.
The French team found a higher temperature could help solve the problem. For instance, heating the samples to 92 degrees Celsius for 15 minutes rendered the virus completely inactive.
“The results presented in this study should help to choose the best suited protocol for inactivation in order to prevent exposure of laboratory personnel in charge of direct and indirect detection of Sars-CoV-2 for diagnostic purpose,” wrote the authors.
--- "it's a bit more complicated than that"
Combined with the news today from the WHO that there is so far no evidence that having the virus confers long term immunity, this has been a pretty rotten day for the fight against CV-19.
Looks like they have hit their goal but this really was a bit of and "Oh" moment for me about the effect of the lockdown, more even than me being moved to a 3 day week.
the twitter thread about the history of that street and that bar. well well worth 10 + minutes.
So in the end Boris capitulated and it was left to Sweden to be the libertarian champion against lockdown ironically
It will be interesting to compare the Swedish economy with others after this. It may not have fared much better as I understand that the bulk of Swedes are voluntarily behaving pretty much as we are. I suppose it depends whether thy have kept their factories open and I haven't followed it that closely. I'm sure someone will be along to enlighten me!
The UK government (right or wrongly ) deliberately killed 25,000 in the fire bombing of Dresden in one night. Not sure why we are destroying the economy and kids lives to protect against a virus that will need to be got by a large amount of the population anyway before it goes away.
So recommendation is no precautions should be taken at all then?
well I get the trying to slow it to allow the NHS to not get overwhelmed to some extent and sensible social distancing measures are fine but schools need to open as to large parts of the economy as soon as possible . We will have an awful time coping with the poverty and inflation and depression that is coming becasue of this lockdown
So in the end Boris capitulated and it was left to Sweden to be the libertarian champion against lockdown ironically
It will be interesting to compare the Swedish economy with others after this. It may not have fared much better as I understand that the bulk of Swedes are voluntarily behaving pretty much as we are. I suppose it depends whether thy have kept their factories open and I haven't followed it that closely. I'm sure someone will be along to enlighten me!
I've been looking at a few webcam in Stockholm. Last week everything was totally dead. A car would pass by occasionally. Last couple of days however and things are much busier.
Comments
Univ Hosp. Bristol 959k population according to theirs
PS: be interesting to see if the PPE that arrives from Turkey gets devolved or will it be retained.
Longer report reproduced here, editing & bold is mine:
The new coronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperatures, according to an experiment by a team of French scientists.
Professor Remi Charrel and colleagues at the Aix-Marseille University in southern France heated the virus that causes Covid-19 to 60 degrees Celsius (140 Fahrenheit) for an hour and found that some strains were still able to replicate. The scientists had to bring the temperature to almost boiling point to kill the virus completely, according to their non-peer-reviewed paper released on bioRxiv.org on Saturday.
The team in France infected African green monkey kidney cells, a standard host material for viral activity tests, with a strain isolated from a patient in Berlin, Germany. The cells were loaded into tubes representing two different types of environments, one “clean” and the other “dirty” with animal proteins to simulate biological contamination in real-life samples, such as an oral swab.
After the heating, the viral strains in the clean environment were thoroughly deactivated. Some strains in the dirty samples, however, survived. The heating process resulted in a clear drop in infectivity but enough living strains remained to be able to start another round of infection, said the paper.
There had been hope that hotter weather, such as that in Singapore or northern hemisphere countries heading into summer, might reduce the spread of Covid-19.
The heating process resulted in a clear drop in infectivity but enough living strains remained to be able to start another round of infection, said the paper.
The 60-degrees Celsius, hour-long protocol has been adapted in many testing labs to suppress a wide range of deadly viruses, including Ebola. For the new coronavirus, this temperature may be enough for samples with low viral loads because it could kill a large proportion of the strains. But it may be dangerous for samples with extremely high amounts of the virus, according to the researchers.
The French team found a higher temperature could help solve the problem. For instance, heating the samples to 92 degrees Celsius for 15 minutes rendered the virus completely inactive.
“The results presented in this study should help to choose the best suited protocol for inactivation in order to prevent exposure of laboratory personnel in charge of direct and indirect detection of Sars-CoV-2 for diagnostic purpose,” wrote the authors.
---
"it's a bit more complicated than that"
It's much quicker playing online - no moving little plastic men, dice rolled automatically...
Hell, the military (now popular with civilians in the US) have rigs for use with ear defender/NBC which cut down loud sounds, like gun shots, while giving *enhanced* hearing for soft sounds.
I tried one system - Standing next to a pneumatic drill going full bore, I had a normal conversation with someone wearing a similar rig.
SK's max was 18k tests on a single day in early March, but that was an isolated peak - they did 94k that week (ie 13.5k/day), and 10.5k/day over March. They were never doing massive amounts, it was always very targeted.
My single favourite polling story (was it ever verified?) was the 52/48 predicted by the huge poll of cash machine users just before the referendum.
It annoyed me slightly, as I suggested a similar poll by inserting a question on pin machines in supermarkets to a techy friend only a year or so earlier!
Social distancing is non existent, even if it was the classes would only be about eight students each to cope with that. That means primary students in school for maybe one day a week, two tops, so how the hell is that going to help people get back to work? After school who is going to pick them up if the grandparents aren’t able to? Seriously, people parrot an idea without realising that it’s completely barking. It doesn’t take much to realise how stupid it is to ask a bunch of five year olds to social distance. Pure tokenism for no benefit.
Anyway, it’s moot because of the movement by parents to keep their children off school until September. Are they going to arrest them for nor non attendance or something?
Cuba is still one of the poorest parts of Latin America and South Korea is far nore prosperous than North Korea.
The only exception is the Gulf states but that is only because they have masses of oil
Nice one. Create an account on Risk: World Domination (PC, mobile, etc) and I'll message you my username to add me.
R_0 is the base rate. Although its a bit more complicated than that.
There will be policies that increase R only by very small amounts and others that will increase it by much more.
And on the other hand, you have police threatening to arrest lone people sunbathing in the park while gathering with large crowds on Westminster Bridge to 'Clap the NHS'. There is only a certain amount of sustainability to any lockdown, let alone ours which is being policed mostly by a general sense of shared purpose.
So I don't think I'll take your circular evasiveness on this occasion. If you're trying to make the argument that you cannot be pretty prosperous if you are less prosperous than somewhere else, you're an idiot. If you think I'm saying liberty is not something people should want, you're a bigger idiot. I think people would be better off being prosperous and having as much liberty as we enjoy, and more. But people have demonstrably seen improvements in the former without getting the latter.
The staff, of course, are a different matter, but I would have thought at least as many would come from Gloucester as from Cheltenham. Many of them will be outside contractors as well.
Indeed, if I were feeling mischievous I might speculate that the cluster is just as likely to be caused by all those ER protestors based in Stroud taking their swanky land rovers, er, bicycles up to London to put up cretinous posters boasting about how mass death is a good thing - and bringing the plague back with them.
The PM's chief SPAD briefing against the PM?
That can't end well.
China gdp per capita $10,098
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
Perhaps a 30 minute debrief from the chairman of the committee meeting is more efficient than sitting in the entire meeting?
Certainly it's impossible to freeze all the students in place, because children do have this annoying habit of getting older. If we're going to wait until social distancing can be dispensed with before opening the schools then it's certainly going to be later than September, it's unlikely to happen before Christmas even if the Oxford research group or a similar vaccine project elsewhere in the world strikes gold, and it might not happen until the Christmas after that or even later. So what the Hell happens then?
The children who have a parent who can stay at home the whole time *and* who has the discipline and wherewithal to make them sit in front of all their remote lessons and ensure that they do them - which certainly won't be more than a minority - might be able to keep up successfully with their learning. All the rest of them will require remedial classes for God knows how long to catch up, or will simply end up pig ignorant and feral.
"This condition is like nothing I have ever seen before"
"I could not continue the current protocols"
Is the virus for the very ill, more like high altitude sickness than flu?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Elgct0nOcKY
Edit: in checking Wiki, Eric Winkle Brown thought the MB 5 was 'outstanding'.
Either he attended the Feb Cobra meetings or he didn't. Must be easy to verify one way or the other.
It's possibly not a bad rule of thumb. Thus, discretionary retail, cafes, restaurants, museums, country houses and gardens (and possibly places of worship, if they're sensible and stick to prayer and preaching but avoid singing) could all reopen subject to social distancing constraints. Rowdy places like bars, music venues, amusement parks and sports grounds, as well as gyms and leisure centres, stay shut.
That might be how things unfold, but we'll just have to wait and see what the scientists think they can get away with I suppose.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/keep-bradleys-spanish-bar-alive
Looks like they have hit their goal but this really was a bit of and "Oh" moment for me about the effect of the lockdown, more even than me being moved to a 3 day week.
https://twitter.com/garius/status/1251202137738162179
It will be interesting to compare the Swedish economy with others after this. It may not have fared much better as I understand that the bulk of Swedes are voluntarily behaving pretty much as we are. I suppose it depends whether thy have kept their factories open and I haven't followed it that closely. I'm sure someone will be along to enlighten me!
So no social distancing at all then?