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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I am betting more on Warren being Biden’s VP pick

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    Ch4 reporting arrests in Hong Kong of protest leaders....good day to bury bad news.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,229

    The Sunday Times Insight team have an utterly damning article on the avoidable failures when it comes to Covid-19.

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1251563504118771712

    Surely an echo of the 37 days' sleepwalking into the First World War after the Archduke's assassination.
    Much worse, you see little snippets like this.

    The failure to obtain large amounts of testing equipment was another big error of judgment, according to the Downing Street source. It would later be one of the big scandals of the coronavirus crisis that the considerable capacity of Britain’s private laboratories to mass-produce tests was not harnessed during those crucial weeks of February.

    “We should have communicated with every commercial testing laboratory that might volunteer to become part of the government’s testing regime but that didn’t happen,” said the source.

    The lack of action was confirmed by Doris-Ann Williams, chief executive of the British In Vitro Diagnostics Association, which represents 110 companies that make up most of the UK’s testing sector. Amazingly, she says her organisation did not receive a meaningful approach from the government asking for help until April 1 — the night before Hancock bowed to pressure and announced a belated and ambitious target of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month.

    Oh and this

    It was a message repeated throughout February but the warnings appear to have fallen on deaf ears. The need, for example, to boost emergency supplies of protective masks and gowns for health workers was pressing, but little progress was made in obtaining the items from the manufacturers, mainly in China.

    Instead, the government sent supplies the other way — shipping 279,000 items of its depleted stockpile of protective equipment to China during this period, following a request for help from the authorities there.
    I would be reluctant to start the 'with-hindsight' critique whilst we are still mid-pandemic.

    I am no fan of Boris but kicking him while he is down doesn't seem fair.

    If mistakes have been made perhaps they should be called out after the awful event is over. As it stands the early schoolboy errors are now under control.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    MaxPB said:

    "The NHS could have contacted UK-based suppliers. The British Healthcare Trades Association (BHTA) was ready to help supply PPE in February — and throughout March — but it was only on April 1 that its offer of help was accepted. Dr Simon Festing, the organisation’s chief executive, said: “Orders undoubtedly went overseas instead of to the NHS because of the missed opportunities in the procurement process.”

    From that Sunday Times article. What a shambles.

    In fairness that’s all 4 of PHE, NHS Scotland, NHS Wales and Northern Ireland.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,660
    Reposted from previous thread...
    Nigelb said:

    Thank you to all for the kind wishes.

    In answer to the questions, yes it was almost certainly coronavirus. I am not entirely sure of the figures, but somewhere around half of the residents in his care home have died in the last week and a half. The index case was a diagnosed coronavirus patient discharged from hospital into the care home.

    My mother was allowed in two days ago in full PPE, but was the only one of the family able to get in.
    The care home staff themselves have been brilliant, working at considerable risk to themselves. One worked a full extra shift to sit with him through last night, for which I shall always be grateful.

    I’m genuinely touched by all those commenting, so again, thanks.

    As I understand it (and as someone who works for Public Health England confirmed to me), it is still policy for coronavirus patients to be discharged directly from hospital into care homes, as reported here:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/15/discharging-coronavirus-patients-care-homes-madness-government/

    This seems to me difficult to describe as anything but reckless endangerment of both residents and staff.

    I’m not going to comment further today, but I would like someone to ask at the next press conference, what proportion of coronavirus outbreaks in care homes have as the index patient someone directly discharged from hospital ?
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,451

    JonathanD said:

    A superb post about Brexit, Covid-19, ventilators and manufacturing innovation.


    "The government’s response to Covid-19 and Brexit are intimately connected...

    On the face of it there is a very great difference between the two policies.... But there is an underlying connection which is important. Brexiter arguments are centred on fantasies about British scientific and inventive genius. The government has sought to address Covid-19 at least in part on this deluded basis.

    At the beginning Boris Johnson stood behind ‘the science’ to justify a UK-only policy of ‘delay’ of the Covid-19 virus. This involved minimal intervention in what Johnson took to reminding us are the ‘freedom-loving’ proclivities of those ‘born in England’. Too late, what looked like a cunning plan to exemplify the virtues of the British way collapsed utterly. The UK is now broadly speaking following Europe and much of the rest of the world.

    But when it comes to ventilators a Brexiter innovation fixated logic applies. The current crisis has been an opportunity to illustrate the argument that the UK was a powerful innovation nation that could do very well without the EU....

    There were lots of allusions to the second world war as if Spitfires had been conjured out of thin air in the heat generated by patriotic enthusiasm. That wartime analogy was deeply misleading – the UK was a world leader in aircraft before the Battle of Britain. It had been making Spitfires since the late 1930s, and had huge long-planned specialist factories making them....

    One cannot magic an industry out of thin air, whether high end ventilators or batteries, but by referencing innovation one can pretend, for a while. And that is where the politics of Covid-19, and Brexit, are stuck, in cynical fantasies about innovation."

    https://www.davidedgerton.org/blog/2020/4/18/the-governments-response-to-covid-19-and-brexit-are-intimately-connectednbsp

    Well that is a complete load of rubbish that hasn't stood the test of time even before it was published. Turns out Remainer commentators are guilty of exactly the same blindness they are accusing Leaver's of.
    In fact, both the Spitfire and Hurricane were the successes of a crop of failures - a deliberate policy of ordering multiple designs, staggered over a range of technical levels.

    The initial Supermarine entry was so crap that the Air Minstry considered not bothering to ask them to tendered for another fighter.

    Backups included - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_M.20 - which was magical up in weeks.

    Both the Spitfire and Hurricane were supposed to be stop gaps - until the "proper" 1940/41 designs flew. These were for 450mph fighters, uniformly armed with cannon and powered by 2000hp engines. It was the failure of the planned replacements that resulted in the Spitfire serving until the end of the war.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1251528634155831297

    Some things are going to have to change after all this over. Social Care mess is another.

    This makes me very cynical. "Can't do anything about homelessness". Suddenly we can sort it all out in the instant, when those homeless might give us the plague.
    A note of caution - we haven't actually sorted out homelessness, we've just corralled rough sleepers into temporary accommodation and made it very difficult for them to leave. This doesn't resolve the core issues most rough sleepers are facing; whether that's addiction, severe mental illness, inability to hold a job, etc. After this is all over, we could probably keep locking rough sleepers in hotels, but those core issues will still be there and resolving them is the primary challenge.
    It is a conundrum, to solve the issue you have to do the unthinkanle and override their human rights.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,609
    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    Not really, at that time the scientific assessment was low risk. The issue was with the assessment not being correct.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Social Distancing = Communism :D
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,265
    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    Not ordering PPE is more likely to be the charge that sticks. I mean, how stupid is that? Even if the whole thing failed to take off, the PPE could be put in storage for a few years, ready for the next one.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,609

    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    Not ordering PPE is more likely to be the charge that sticks. I mean, how stupid is that? Even if the whole thing failed to take off, the PPE could be put in storage for a few years, ready for the next one.
    I think Hancock takes the fall for that. It's in his shop, why wasn't he actively reaching out to UK industry. Instead he was ignoring them.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,265
    Nigelb said:

    Reposted from previous thread...

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you to all for the kind wishes.

    In answer to the questions, yes it was almost certainly coronavirus. I am not entirely sure of the figures, but somewhere around half of the residents in his care home have died in the last week and a half. The index case was a diagnosed coronavirus patient discharged from hospital into the care home.

    My mother was allowed in two days ago in full PPE, but was the only one of the family able to get in.
    The care home staff themselves have been brilliant, working at considerable risk to themselves. One worked a full extra shift to sit with him through last night, for which I shall always be grateful.

    I’m genuinely touched by all those commenting, so again, thanks.

    As I understand it (and as someone who works for Public Health England confirmed to me), it is still policy for coronavirus patients to be discharged directly from hospital into care homes, as reported here:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/15/discharging-coronavirus-patients-care-homes-madness-government/

    This seems to me difficult to describe as anything but reckless endangerment of both residents and staff.

    I’m not going to comment further today, but I would like someone to ask at the next press conference, what proportion of coronavirus outbreaks in care homes have as the index patient someone directly discharged from hospital ?
    Yep, that is the kind of searching question we need. Not yet another version of 'How long before you think we might have a vaccine/not need lockdown?"
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited April 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Reposted from previous thread...

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you to all for the kind wishes.

    In answer to the questions, yes it was almost certainly coronavirus. I am not entirely sure of the figures, but somewhere around half of the residents in his care home have died in the last week and a half. The index case was a diagnosed coronavirus patient discharged from hospital into the care home.

    My mother was allowed in two days ago in full PPE, but was the only one of the family able to get in.
    The care home staff themselves have been brilliant, working at considerable risk to themselves. One worked a full extra shift to sit with him through last night, for which I shall always be grateful.

    I’m genuinely touched by all those commenting, so again, thanks.

    As I understand it (and as someone who works for Public Health England confirmed to me), it is still policy for coronavirus patients to be discharged directly from hospital into care homes, as reported here:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/15/discharging-coronavirus-patients-care-homes-madness-government/

    This seems to me difficult to describe as anything but reckless endangerment of both residents and staff.

    I’m not going to comment further today, but I would like someone to ask at the next press conference, what proportion of coronavirus outbreaks in care homes have as the index patient someone directly discharged from hospital ?
    It's a clear and obvious incorrect policy. Whilst people who live in "normal" homes should be discharged whilst still symptomatic to free up hospital beds, the same policy should not apply to those who only have a care home to go back to.
    The policy needs changing, now.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2020
    Have we discussed this. Shops and businesses open in 3 weeks seems very errhhh hmmm "brave"

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-three-stage-exit-plan
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,996
    Thames Water says: “One of the unfortunate impacts of COVID-19 is that we are seeing an increase in blockages in our sewer networks, as people doing extra cleaning or who have had problems buying toilet tolls are flushing non-biodegradable alternatives, such as kitchen roll or antibacterial wipes. This is creating problems in our sewers, which can result in sewage backing up into people’s homes."

    Toilets overflowing with sewage could be the next chapter in this bad dream.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    Not really, at that time the scientific assessment was low risk. The issue was with the assessment not being correct.
    Risk level was raised from low to medium on 30th of January. To be skipping Cobra meetings in February...

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-from-the-four-uk-chief-medical-officers-on-novel-coronavirus

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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Social Distancing = Communism :D

    Brings out some in a zealous fervour not seen outside Mecca or the Vatican...
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?
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    SockySocky Posts: 404
    MaxPB said:

    I think Hancock takes the fall for that. It's in his shop, why wasn't he actively reaching out to UK industry. Instead he was ignoring them.

    Unless there is an email from PHE telling him they had it all under control.

    Granted, if he wasn't asking probing questions, he should resign as an MP as soon as things have calmed down. That is pretty much his entire role.

    In future Ms. Patel's robust handling of civil servants needs to happen in other departments.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,996
    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    Primary schools re-open.
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    SockySocky Posts: 404
    JonathanD said:

    Risk level was raised from low to medium on 30th of January. To be skipping Cobra meetings in February...

    Do we know who was chairing the meetings? If it was the health secretary that seems to me appropriate for that stage.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Barnesian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    Primary schools re-open.
    Schools has a really big economic impact... wonder if they will try to keep them open over the Summer (*ducks for incoming fire from teachers*).
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,451

    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    Not ordering PPE is more likely to be the charge that sticks. I mean, how stupid is that? Even if the whole thing failed to take off, the PPE could be put in storage for a few years, ready for the next one.
    Much of the disposable PPE has a shelf life. Early in this, California found it was the proud owner of millions of out of date n95 masks. There was an issue in France where PPE gowns that were out of date were issued - but literally fell apart when put on.

    Disposable PPE sounds like a good idea, if you have cheap-as-chip-prices and vast volumes being shipped in all the time.

    A question for Foxy - I have personally (for welding*) used both a face shield and a disposable mask, and as an alternative - a face covering mask with a powered air supply.

    The setup with the face shield and the disposable mask resembles to an extent the pictures of PPE setup being used in hospitals around the world.

    The thing I noticed was that the face shield/helmet is quite restricting if you want to move your head - it also opens gaps in the protection easily**.

    I found the face mask - the one covering the entire front of the head, sealing around the edge of the face, supplied with blown air (filtered) much more comfortable and manoeuvrable..

    Have you tried such systems?

    * When welding stainless steel, you have to deal with chromium vapour. Which will destroy your lungs in very small doses. Hence the sensible treat it like playing with cyanide.
    ** Some electric welding methods put out insane amounts of UV. You can literally get a hospital grade sun burn in a matter of a few seconds.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    Socky said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Hancock takes the fall for that. It's in his shop, why wasn't he actively reaching out to UK industry. Instead he was ignoring them.

    Unless there is an email from PHE telling him they had it all under control.

    Granted, if he wasn't asking probing questions, he should resign as an MP as soon as things have calmed down. That is pretty much his entire role.

    In future Ms. Patel's robust handling of civil servants needs to happen in other departments.
    Another post where I'm agreeing to it completely - but then it's ruined by the last sentence.
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    SockySocky Posts: 404
    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    Private transport, offices and shops that can implement social distancing.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,166
    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    I sense after weeks of giving the media pelters for asking the wrong questions that there's going to be a sustained period of the usual suspects slagging the media for asking the right questions.
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    SockySocky Posts: 404
    rkrkrk said:

    Schools has a really big economic impact... wonder if they will try to keep them open over the Summer (*ducks for incoming fire from teachers*).

    I have said this before, why not start an extended autumn term in July?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Another (probably very obvious) thought on easing lockdown... some businesses are probably going to find lockdown lite harder than complete lockdown. Complete lockdown they can furlough staff, lockdown lite they might be allowed to open, but they may not see the customers they need.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    I don't expect any meaningful changes until the end of June.

    The furlough scheme extension is the weathervane here....
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,964
    Nigelb said:

    Reposted from previous thread...

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you to all for the kind wishes.

    In answer to the questions, yes it was almost certainly coronavirus. I am not entirely sure of the figures, but somewhere around half of the residents in his care home have died in the last week and a half. The index case was a diagnosed coronavirus patient discharged from hospital into the care home.

    My mother was allowed in two days ago in full PPE, but was the only one of the family able to get in.
    The care home staff themselves have been brilliant, working at considerable risk to themselves. One worked a full extra shift to sit with him through last night, for which I shall always be grateful.

    I’m genuinely touched by all those commenting, so again, thanks.

    As I understand it (and as someone who works for Public Health England confirmed to me), it is still policy for coronavirus patients to be discharged directly from hospital into care homes, as reported here:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/15/discharging-coronavirus-patients-care-homes-madness-government/

    This seems to me difficult to describe as anything but reckless endangerment of both residents and staff.

    I’m not going to comment further today, but I would like someone to ask at the next press conference, what proportion of coronavirus outbreaks in care homes have as the index patient someone directly discharged from hospital ?
    This is one of a number of areas where I believe the Government or their advisors have been seriously, dangerously wrong. If they could not have tested those being released back to care homes then they should have arranged for separate homes for those coming out of hospital to be released into under quarantine. Releasing them into the general elderly population was and is criminal.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    Barnesian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    Primary schools re-open.
    Clothing is essential if your children forgot to stop growing. Chiropodists (and I fear some older people might find it hard to get their shoes on after a few weeks without care). Dentists are more problematic because of saliva and PPE shortages.

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Socky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Schools has a really big economic impact... wonder if they will try to keep them open over the Summer (*ducks for incoming fire from teachers*).

    I have said this before, why not start an extended autumn term in July?
    Gove is a fan of a longer school year anyway I believe. I think it's very plausible they will try this. Expect a Summer of arguments about how many hours teachers work/how long school holidays are or should be...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    Scott_xP said:
    Are those trusts all the same size?
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    PhilPhil Posts: 1,943

    I see the twats on twitter have WheresBoris trending.

    I am surprised he hasn't recorded a short message TBH
    It seems reasonable to assume that the virus has absolutely wiped him out: Recovery will be slow & if he takes an active role in politics inside the next fortnight I’ll be surprised.

    If they could roll him out for the press, even if only to stand and wave & look the part, they would have done. That he can’t even manage that speaks to how ill he was & how slow his recovery is.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Also - if you're stuck at home - here's a top tip for something fun to do that others will also enjoy. Dig out old family photos from way back, send a few to family members via whatsapp/viber/platform of choice.

    I just spent a very nostalgic hour and managed to entertain the wider family with some classic photos of happier times. Now's a good time!
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are those trusts all the same size?
    No, they are completely different sizes. Some will have a % percentage acute beds.

    Somerset Partnership for example is community and mental health, it will not be treating COVID patients.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    edited April 2020
    Barnesian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    Primary schools re-open.
    Schools? Maybe but again I can take the opportunity to bang on about the lack of data on spread. Should schools stop pupils walking between classes in crowded corridors and make the teachers move between classrooms instead? Should playtimes be staggered? What about school meals and just what is the difference between a restaurant and a school dining room?

    Should children wear masks? If teachers projecting their voices to the back of the room risks spreading saliva, should they be given microphones and speakers? Should desks be placed 2 meters apart? Can windows be opened, or the air conditioning turned on?

    In order to answer this sort of question, we'd need to know more about how the virus spreads. Otherwise we are back to guessing and praying for herd immunity.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    RobD said:

    JonathanD said:

    A superb post about Brexit, Covid-19, ventilators and manufacturing innovation.


    "The government’s response to Covid-19 and Brexit are intimately connected...

    On the face of it there is a very great difference between the two policies.... But there is an underlying connection which is important. Brexiter arguments are centred on fantasies about British scientific and inventive genius. The government has sought to address Covid-19 at least in part on this deluded basis.

    At the beginning Boris Johnson stood behind ‘the science’ to justify a UK-only policy of ‘delay’ of the Covid-19 virus. This involved minimal intervention in what Johnson took to reminding us are the ‘freedom-loving’ proclivities of those ‘born in England’. Too late, what looked like a cunning plan to exemplify the virtues of the British way collapsed utterly. The UK is now broadly speaking following Europe and much of the rest of the world.

    But when it comes to ventilators a Brexiter innovation fixated logic applies. The current crisis has been an opportunity to illustrate the argument that the UK was a powerful innovation nation that could do very well without the EU....

    There were lots of allusions to the second world war as if Spitfires had been conjured out of thin air in the heat generated by patriotic enthusiasm. That wartime analogy was deeply misleading – the UK was a world leader in aircraft before the Battle of Britain. It had been making Spitfires since the late 1930s, and had huge long-planned specialist factories making them....

    One cannot magic an industry out of thin air, whether high end ventilators or batteries, but by referencing innovation one can pretend, for a while. And that is where the politics of Covid-19, and Brexit, are stuck, in cynical fantasies about innovation."

    https://www.davidedgerton.org/blog/2020/4/18/the-governments-response-to-covid-19-and-brexit-are-intimately-connectednbsp

    Except the ventilator scheme has worked, hasn't it?
    I think so although only a tiny number from "new suppliers"

  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Nigelb said:

    Reposted from previous thread...

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you to all for the kind wishes.

    In answer to the questions, yes it was almost certainly coronavirus. I am not entirely sure of the figures, but somewhere around half of the residents in his care home have died in the last week and a half. The index case was a diagnosed coronavirus patient discharged from hospital into the care home.

    My mother was allowed in two days ago in full PPE, but was the only one of the family able to get in.
    The care home staff themselves have been brilliant, working at considerable risk to themselves. One worked a full extra shift to sit with him through last night, for which I shall always be grateful.

    I’m genuinely touched by all those commenting, so again, thanks.

    As I understand it (and as someone who works for Public Health England confirmed to me), it is still policy for coronavirus patients to be discharged directly from hospital into care homes, as reported here:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/15/discharging-coronavirus-patients-care-homes-madness-government/

    This seems to me difficult to describe as anything but reckless endangerment of both residents and staff.

    I’m not going to comment further today, but I would like someone to ask at the next press conference, what proportion of coronavirus outbreaks in care homes have as the index patient someone directly discharged from hospital ?
    This is one of a number of areas where I believe the Government or their advisors have been seriously, dangerously wrong. If they could not have tested those being released back to care homes then they should have arranged for separate homes for those coming out of hospital to be released into under quarantine. Releasing them into the general elderly population was and is criminal.
    Yes - criminal was the word I was thinking about this sorry state of affairs
  • Options
    SockySocky Posts: 404
    edited April 2020


    "In future Ms. Patel's robust handling of civil servants needs to happen in other departments."

    Another post where I'm agreeing to it completely - but then it's ruined by the last sentence.

    I worry that government ministers trust their top civil servants too much, and allow themselves to receive a filtered version of reality*.

    Perhaps the only long term solution is for all ministers to have their own teams of Dominic Cummingses who do the dirty work of applying the thumb screws.

    * I am sure we all know of organisations where the top level management is deliberately kept in the dark.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,166


    Both the Spitfire and Hurricane were supposed to be stop gaps - until the "proper" 1940/41 designs flew. These were for 450mph fighters, uniformly armed with cannon and powered by 2000hp engines. It was the failure of the planned replacements that resulted in the Spitfire serving until the end of the war.

    Well they just about managed that by '43-44ish with the Spitfire.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    edited April 2020
    Moved.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,029
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Artist said:

    A lot of Sanders supporters in the Democratic Party don't like Warren any more though.

    Warren also gives off elitist Hillary vibes that would hinder Biden with key switch voters. Just going with Harris would be fine.

    Harris also comes across as elitist with even less charisma than Warren.

    Harris also represents California, so like Warren represents a safe Democratic state.

    Whitmer who represents Michigan, a swing state Trump won in 2016, brings more to the table than either Harris or Warren
    Warren is by far the Democrats best operator...she skewered Bloomberg..she is fearless, intelligent and carries the base and fundraising....

    Gore didn't bring home his state in 2000....so the state stuff is a red herring...

    Warren is what Biden needs....someone who can do the heavy lifting...he can be sleepy Joe...... and she can be the ballbuster....and for Trump you need someone who can bust balls...
    Gore did bring his home state in 1992 for Bill Clinton though and again in 1996 when Tennessee voted Democrat for the first time since 1976
    When you win by a landslide the state doesn't matter.....

    In a tight race...Gore couldn't bring in his home state....

    I think this is going to be a Democratic landslide btw....but..if it's tight, I would want someone who can fight hard and fight dirty against Trump....Biden cannot do that, but Warren can.....she is knuckleduster kick ass operator....
    If it is going to be tight, as in ny view is likely, Biden will need Pennsylvania and Michigan to win, Massachusetts is already in the bag
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,013

    MaxPB said:

    "The NHS could have contacted UK-based suppliers. The British Healthcare Trades Association (BHTA) was ready to help supply PPE in February — and throughout March — but it was only on April 1 that its offer of help was accepted. Dr Simon Festing, the organisation’s chief executive, said: “Orders undoubtedly went overseas instead of to the NHS because of the missed opportunities in the procurement process.”

    From that Sunday Times article. What a shambles.

    In fairness that’s all 4 of PHE, NHS Scotland, NHS Wales and Northern Ireland.
    You trying to spread the blame away from your heroes, I would bet it was handled from down south on Westminster orders.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    Socky said:


    "In future Ms. Patel's robust handling of civil servants needs to happen in other departments."

    Another post where I'm agreeing to it completely - but then it's ruined by the last sentence.

    I worry that government ministers trust their top civil servants too much, and allow themselves to receive a filtered version of reality*.

    Perhaps the only long term solution is for all ministers to have their own teams of Dominic Cummingses who do the dirty work of applying the thumb screws.

    * I am sure we all know of organisations where the top level management is deliberately kept in the dark.
    Funny how the ST's story follows the Chief SpAd's return to action.
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    edited April 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,029
    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1251528634155831297

    Some things are going to have to change after all this over. Social Care mess is another.

    This makes me very cynical. "Can't do anything about homelessness". Suddenly we can sort it all out in the instant, when those homeless might give us the plague.
    Yes but most of them are in empty hotel rooms as hotels are closed to the public due to the lockdown
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 709

    Social Distancing = Communism :D

    Sounds like one of Sunil’s equivalences.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946

    Barnesian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    Primary schools re-open.
    Clothing is essential if your children forgot to stop growing. Chiropodists (and I fear some older people might find it hard to get their shoes on after a few weeks without care). Dentists are more problematic because of saliva and PPE shortages.

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
    Indoor areas, especially those air-conditioned, are perfect vectors. No way that pubs or restaurants will be opening any time soon.

    There is a reason why Macron has told France that it isn't going to be open for leisure activities till July....
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,695

    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    Not ordering PPE is more likely to be the charge that sticks. I mean, how stupid is that? Even if the whole thing failed to take off, the PPE could be put in storage for a few years, ready for the next one.
    Much of the disposable PPE has a shelf life. Early in this, California found it was the proud owner of millions of out of date n95 masks. There was an issue in France where PPE gowns that were out of date were issued - but literally fell apart when put on.

    Disposable PPE sounds like a good idea, if you have cheap-as-chip-prices and vast volumes being shipped in all the time.

    A question for Foxy - I have personally (for welding*) used both a face shield and a disposable mask, and as an alternative - a face covering mask with a powered air supply.

    The setup with the face shield and the disposable mask resembles to an extent the pictures of PPE setup being used in hospitals around the world.

    The thing I noticed was that the face shield/helmet is quite restricting if you want to move your head - it also opens gaps in the protection easily**.

    I found the face mask - the one covering the entire front of the head, sealing around the edge of the face, supplied with blown air (filtered) much more comfortable and manoeuvrable..

    Have you tried such systems?

    * When welding stainless steel, you have to deal with chromium vapour. Which will destroy your lungs in very small doses. Hence the sensible treat it like playing with cyanide.
    ** Some electric welding methods put out insane amounts of UV. You can literally get a hospital grade sun burn in a matter of a few seconds.
    Yes, the filtering respirators are in use in ICU , hoods for those that don't fit, for AGP (Aerosol Generating Procedures). The masks and visors are used for non AGP work.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,013
    Phil said:

    I see the twats on twitter have WheresBoris trending.

    I am surprised he hasn't recorded a short message TBH
    It seems reasonable to assume that the virus has absolutely wiped him out: Recovery will be slow & if he takes an active role in politics inside the next fortnight I’ll be surprised.

    If they could roll him out for the press, even if only to stand and wave & look the part, they would have done. That he can’t even manage that speaks to how ill he was & how slow his recovery is.
    He managed a video before he went away and had no difficulties waxing lyrically about how he had arisen etc. I think you are one of these mugs that are easily taken in. More likely in hiding so he can avoid the blame but pop up if any glory going.
    If he was bad at all he would not have gotten out of hospital after a few days.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    eadric said:

    I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant

    Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.

    Hang on, didn't you flounce off to Penarth in a panic? Not exactly leading from the front is it....
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Artist said:

    A lot of Sanders supporters in the Democratic Party don't like Warren any more though.

    Warren also gives off elitist Hillary vibes that would hinder Biden with key switch voters. Just going with Harris would be fine.

    Harris also comes across as elitist with even less charisma than Warren.

    Harris also represents California, so like Warren represents a safe Democratic state.

    Whitmer who represents Michigan, a swing state Trump won in 2016, brings more to the table than either Harris or Warren
    Warren is by far the Democrats best operator...she skewered Bloomberg..she is fearless, intelligent and carries the base and fundraising....

    Gore didn't bring home his state in 2000....so the state stuff is a red herring...

    Warren is what Biden needs....someone who can do the heavy lifting...he can be sleepy Joe...... and she can be the ballbuster....and for Trump you need someone who can bust balls...
    Gore did bring his home state in 1992 for Bill Clinton though and again in 1996 when Tennessee voted Democrat for the first time since 1976
    When you win by a landslide the state doesn't matter.....

    In a tight race...Gore couldn't bring in his home state....

    I think this is going to be a Democratic landslide btw....but..if it's tight, I would want someone who can fight hard and fight dirty against Trump....Biden cannot do that, but Warren can.....she is knuckleduster kick ass operator....
    If it is going to be tight, as in ny view is likely, Biden will need Pennsylvania and Michigan to win, Massachusetts is already in the bag
    Looking at recent VP picks, I'm not sure this is a consideration. Was Cheney needed to bring Montana to the GOP, or Palin for Alaska, or Quayle the potatoe guy for Indiana? My fear is it will be someone the average British punter (like yours truly) has never heard of.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721

    NYT:

    "The [Reopen America] rally in Austin was organized by Owen Shroyer, the host of a show on Infowars, a website based in Austin that was founded by Alex Jones and traffics in conspiracy theories. Mr. Shroyer told his Infowars audience this week that the coronavirus was part of a scheme by the Chinese Communist Party and the so-called deep state to undermine Mr. Trump , and that reports of overwhelmed hospitals like those in New York were “propaganda.” "

    Wot, not George Soros this time?
    Looks like there will be more Republicans than Democrats made ill by the virus before November. Some may even turn against Trump.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Phil said:

    I see the twats on twitter have WheresBoris trending.

    I am surprised he hasn't recorded a short message TBH
    It seems reasonable to assume that the virus has absolutely wiped him out: Recovery will be slow & if he takes an active role in politics inside the next fortnight I’ll be surprised.

    If they could roll him out for the press, even if only to stand and wave & look the part, they would have done. That he can’t even manage that speaks to how ill he was & how slow his recovery is.
    He managed a video before he went away and had no difficulties waxing lyrically about how he had arisen etc. I think you are one of these mugs that are easily taken in. More likely in hiding so he can avoid the blame but pop up if any glory going.
    If he was bad at all he would not have gotten out of hospital after a few days.
    for goodness sake how cynical you be?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    "The NHS could have contacted UK-based suppliers. The British Healthcare Trades Association (BHTA) was ready to help supply PPE in February — and throughout March — but it was only on April 1 that its offer of help was accepted. Dr Simon Festing, the organisation’s chief executive, said: “Orders undoubtedly went overseas instead of to the NHS because of the missed opportunities in the procurement process.”

    From that Sunday Times article. What a shambles.

    In fairness that’s all 4 of PHE, NHS Scotland, NHS Wales and Northern Ireland.
    You trying to spread the blame away from your heroes, I would bet it was handled from down south on Westminster orders.
    Which part of "devolved" do you not understand?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,080
    eadric said:

    I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant

    Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.

    To be fair, Johnson explicitly made a link between Brexit and taking a laissez-faire attitude to the virus in his Greenwich speech in early February.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-in-greenwich-3-february-2020

    ...there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange...
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Scott_xP said:
    I went to Cheltenham for a couple of days this year .I can assure you not many of the 200K were actually from Cheltenham
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant

    Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.

    Hang on, didn't you flounce off to Penarth in a panic? Not exactly leading from the front is it....
    Lol. What was I meant to do, rock up to number 10 with a g&t, offering to take over from bojo?
    Doesn't exactly suggest you were made of sterner stuff, though, does it?

    'So, I have to level with you, you really should think about flouncing off to the country'
  • Options
    SockySocky Posts: 404

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.

    When I asked some years ago why all our office kitchens had dishwashers fitted, I was told that it is a H&S hygiene requirement that all commercial restaurants wash their dishes and cutlery at > 70c (i.e. too high for hand washing).

    So the question is: is 70c enough?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
    But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics

    Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
    Firstly, 200,000 people did not attend Cheltenham. The Festival lasts four days and many racegoers will go for more than one day; you can't naively multiply the daily attendance by four. Let's call it 80,000. And around 15,000 of those will be from Ireland so why have the Irish doctors not reported hundreds of patients back from the races?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are those trusts all the same size?
    No Univ Hospitals Bristol for example has a £591m Turnover compared to the one with most deaths which is smaller £458m The former has 20% more beds too
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    edited April 2020
    malcolmg said:

    Phil said:

    I see the twats on twitter have WheresBoris trending.

    I am surprised he hasn't recorded a short message TBH
    It seems reasonable to assume that the virus has absolutely wiped him out: Recovery will be slow & if he takes an active role in politics inside the next fortnight I’ll be surprised.

    If they could roll him out for the press, even if only to stand and wave & look the part, they would have done. That he can’t even manage that speaks to how ill he was & how slow his recovery is.
    He managed a video before he went away and had no difficulties waxing lyrically about how he had arisen etc. I think you are one of these mugs that are easily taken in. More likely in hiding so he can avoid the blame but pop up if any glory going.
    If he was bad at all he would not have gotten out of hospital after a few days.
    Psephologist, psychiatrist and ICU specialist! My we are blessed with your words of wisdom!

    Even if you don't understand what "devolved" means!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,265
    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant

    Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.

    Hang on, didn't you flounce off to Penarth in a panic? Not exactly leading from the front is it....
    Lol. What was I meant to do, rock up to number 10 with a g&t, offering to take over from bojo?
    Have you been told to fuck off home yet by any of the locals? :smiley:
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    edited April 2020

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
    But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics

    Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
    Firstly, 200,000 people did not attend Cheltenham. The Festival lasts four days and many racegoers will go for more than one day; you can't naively multiply the daily attendance by four. Let's call it 80,000. And around 15,000 of those will be from Ireland so why have the Irish doctors not reported hundreds of patients back from the races?
    Quite. It is AMAZING how successful this panic has been at creating armchair epidemiologists. I suspect none will be held accountable at the inquiry, afterwards, however...
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,451
    Foxy said:

    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    Not ordering PPE is more likely to be the charge that sticks. I mean, how stupid is that? Even if the whole thing failed to take off, the PPE could be put in storage for a few years, ready for the next one.
    Much of the disposable PPE has a shelf life. Early in this, California found it was the proud owner of millions of out of date n95 masks. There was an issue in France where PPE gowns that were out of date were issued - but literally fell apart when put on.

    Disposable PPE sounds like a good idea, if you have cheap-as-chip-prices and vast volumes being shipped in all the time.

    A question for Foxy - I have personally (for welding*) used both a face shield and a disposable mask, and as an alternative - a face covering mask with a powered air supply.

    The setup with the face shield and the disposable mask resembles to an extent the pictures of PPE setup being used in hospitals around the world.

    The thing I noticed was that the face shield/helmet is quite restricting if you want to move your head - it also opens gaps in the protection easily**.

    I found the face mask - the one covering the entire front of the head, sealing around the edge of the face, supplied with blown air (filtered) much more comfortable and manoeuvrable..

    Have you tried such systems?

    * When welding stainless steel, you have to deal with chromium vapour. Which will destroy your lungs in very small doses. Hence the sensible treat it like playing with cyanide.
    ** Some electric welding methods put out insane amounts of UV. You can literally get a hospital grade sun burn in a matter of a few seconds.
    Yes, the filtering respirators are in use in ICU , hoods for those that don't fit, for AGP (Aerosol Generating Procedures). The masks and visors are used for non AGP work.
    How comfortable are the full face mask systems? - I really appreciated the air-conditioning effect from the blown air, and the edge of face seal felt much more comfortable than a separate mask/face shield setup... Another thing was the ease of taking it off/putting it on - once the straps were setup for me, it was pull on/pull off.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,265
    Socky said:

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.

    When I asked some years ago why all our office kitchens had dishwashers fitted, I was told that it is a H&S hygiene requirement that all commercial restaurants wash their dishes and cutlery at > 70c (i.e. too high for hand washing).

    So the question is: is 70c enough?
    Nope. Well not according to the piece I read a day or two ago. I may have even posted a link here. Researchers had to get to 90 degrees to kill the bastard iirc.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    Primary schools re-open.
    Clothing is essential if your children forgot to stop growing. Chiropodists (and I fear some older people might find it hard to get their shoes on after a few weeks without care). Dentists are more problematic because of saliva and PPE shortages.

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
    Indoor areas, especially those air-conditioned, are perfect vectors. No way that pubs or restaurants will be opening any time soon.

    There is a reason why Macron has told France that it isn't going to be open for leisure activities till July....
    If that is true then we cannot reopen schools in a hurry, and why have offices and factories not been told to turn the air conditioning off? (Or have they?)

    That's the trouble. Too much guesswork on how it spreads.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,695

    Scott_xP said:
    Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
    Looking at deaths per capita, Gloucestershire does appear to be the highest in the West Country, though all are below the national average..


  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Barnesian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    Primary schools re-open.
    Clothing is essential if your children forgot to stop growing. Chiropodists (and I fear some older people might find it hard to get their shoes on after a few weeks without care). Dentists are more problematic because of saliva and PPE shortages.

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
    Restaurants run on pretty fine margins. Even if they're allowed to reopen, I don't know how many would be profitable with 10% or 20% reduction in customers.

    My understanding is the evidence is prolonged close contact = more spread.
    And with restaurants, you're eating while someone else is talking to you.
    Highest risk I would have thought.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,609
    Socky said:

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.

    When I asked some years ago why all our office kitchens had dishwashers fitted, I was told that it is a H&S hygiene requirement that all commercial restaurants wash their dishes and cutlery at > 70c (i.e. too high for hand washing).

    So the question is: is 70c enough?
    Detergent.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721

    Socky said:

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.

    When I asked some years ago why all our office kitchens had dishwashers fitted, I was told that it is a H&S hygiene requirement that all commercial restaurants wash their dishes and cutlery at > 70c (i.e. too high for hand washing).

    So the question is: is 70c enough?
    Nope. Well not according to the piece I read a day or two ago. I may have even posted a link here. Researchers had to get to 90 degrees to kill the bastard iirc.
    I think the detergent would get it.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    rkrkrk said:

    Barnesian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So moving out of lockdown... makes sense to prioritize changes with:
    biggest economic impact/smallest public health risk.

    So my guess would be:
    non-essential shops (clothing etc.) are likely to come back.
    some sports clubs etc. like tennis, golf... but perhaps not football
    museums, national trust properties etc.

    On the other hand - restaurants and bars probably stay closed.

    The big one will be whether to allow visits to friends and family.
    Risky, and of negligible economic benefit, but a huge deal socially speaking...

    What do others reckon?

    Primary schools re-open.
    Clothing is essential if your children forgot to stop growing. Chiropodists (and I fear some older people might find it hard to get their shoes on after a few weeks without care). Dentists are more problematic because of saliva and PPE shortages.

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.
    Restaurants run on pretty fine margins. Even if they're allowed to reopen, I don't know how many would be profitable with 10% or 20% reduction in customers.

    My understanding is the evidence is prolonged close contact = more spread.
    And with restaurants, you're eating while someone else is talking to you.
    Highest risk I would have thought.
    School dining halls? Staff canteens? They are effectively very big restaurants but without (so far as I know) any clusters reported.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,302
    rkrkrk said:

    Socky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Schools has a really big economic impact... wonder if they will try to keep them open over the Summer (*ducks for incoming fire from teachers*).

    I have said this before, why not start an extended autumn term in July?
    Gove is a fan of a longer school year anyway I believe. I think it's very plausible they will try this. Expect a Summer of arguments about how many hours teachers work/how long school holidays are or should be...
    If the summer holidays are abolished, does that mean I get to book annual leave when I like and not based on the tradition that children need to help with the harvest?

    More seriously, I would be more than willing to see holidays shortened, but only if the teaching week was cut from five days to four. That way, I would have time to get on with all my out of classroom work on the extra day, leaving the weekend to catch up on (a) sleep and (b) all my housework, gardening, personal finances etc that I never have time for in the school term because of the insane hours.

    However, Gove was a fan of longer school days and longer school terms largely because he saw it as a way of punishing teachers for daring to question the genius of himself and Cummings. He doesn’t have a clue what would be involved or how many teachers would instantly walk away, and because he’s an arrogant and petty little shit he wouldn’t care either.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,609
    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
    But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics

    Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
    Firstly, 200,000 people did not attend Cheltenham. The Festival lasts four days and many racegoers will go for more than one day; you can't naively multiply the daily attendance by four. Let's call it 80,000. And around 15,000 of those will be from Ireland so why have the Irish doctors not reported hundreds of patients back from the races?
    Quite. It is AMAZING how successful this panic has been at creating armchair epidemiologists. I suspect none will be held accountable at the inquiry, afterwards, however...
    Tbf, no one on the internet is in charge of public policy.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I went to Cheltenham for a couple of days this year .I can assure you not many of the 200K were actually from Cheltenham
    I don’t think you understand the principle of infection. Which is not surprising from someone who was dim enough to go to Cheltenham 2020
    Ok - well not sure what the point is of stopping this plague before it started given it will spread anyway (btw the tube/Westfield shopping centre etc was rammed on the days of Cheltenham as well).I thought the idea was to have a consistent flat level of numbers anyway -so the NHS could cope. Unlike you I have stayed in my main residence and not sent the plague to the countyr by you moving out of a hot zone in London to the country. For a supposed hedonist you seem surprisingly prudish about enjoyment that was allowed even by HMG at the time
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
    But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics

    Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?

    Scott_xP said:
    I went to Cheltenham for a couple of days this year .I can assure you not many of the 200K were actually from Cheltenham
    I was thinking that. Cheltenham Festival is hardly full of locals
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,695
    Socky said:

    Beyond that we still need more data on how (and where) the virus spreads. Bars and restaurants might be safe: hot food and alcohol; washed up plates and glasses. I think HMG was taken by surprise when the big chains closed their takeaway operations which were OK under the guidelines.

    When I asked some years ago why all our office kitchens had dishwashers fitted, I was told that it is a H&S hygiene requirement that all commercial restaurants wash their dishes and cutlery at > 70c (i.e. too high for hand washing).

    So the question is: is 70c enough?
    I think that hot water requirement is to prevent Legionella, which thrives in tepid water systems.

    It is also why hospital hot water and heating systems are so hot. Full blast or not at all.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    Scott_xP said:
    Hardly unseen, I posted it this morning
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,451


    Both the Spitfire and Hurricane were supposed to be stop gaps - until the "proper" 1940/41 designs flew. These were for 450mph fighters, uniformly armed with cannon and powered by 2000hp engines. It was the failure of the planned replacements that resulted in the Spitfire serving until the end of the war.

    Well they just about managed that by '43-44ish with the Spitfire.

    Pretty much by accident - Joe Smith managed that, those his later jet designs were... not inspiring. The Griffon was a happy accident.... though it made some Spitfires a pilot killer. The Seafire Mk15 was death trap, for example.

    The Mustang showed what a proper clean sheet design could have done - the bit that gets missed all the time was the massive difference in economical cruise speed.
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    humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    eadric said:

    I sense a Remainer agenda in that Sunday Times article. A lot of comments about Brexit, some of them tellingly irrelevant

    Nonetheless it is depressing that the UK would probably have been better off with me, paranoid and drunk, as the prime minister since early February.

    The Sunday Times article also includes plenty of snide comments about the PM and seems to be largely sourced from an unnamed "Downing Street Adviser" who seems to be blaming the PM personally for the perceived errors in the government's response to the virus.

    Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the article it reads like a hatchet job.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,695
    edited April 2020

    Foxy said:

    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If that Times article proves to be anything like accurate and Johnson skipped 5 COBRA meetings on the virus in February then he is going to be in very deep trouble.

    Not ordering PPE is more likely to be the charge that sticks. I mean, how stupid is that? Even if the whole thing failed to take off, the PPE could be put in storage for a few years, ready for the next one.
    Much of the disposable PPE has a shelf life. Early in this, California found it was the proud owner of millions of out of date n95 masks. There was an issue in France where PPE gowns that were out of date were issued - but literally fell apart when put on.

    Disposable PPE sounds like a good idea, if you have cheap-as-chip-prices and vast volumes being shipped in all the time.

    A question for Foxy - I have personally (for welding*) used both a face shield and a disposable mask, and as an alternative - a face covering mask with a powered air supply.

    The setup with the face shield and the disposable mask resembles to an extent the pictures of PPE setup being used in hospitals around the world.

    The thing I noticed was that the face shield/helmet is quite restricting if you want to move your head - it also opens gaps in the protection easily**.

    I found the face mask - the one covering the entire front of the head, sealing around the edge of the face, supplied with blown air (filtered) much more comfortable and manoeuvrable..

    Have you tried such systems?

    * When welding stainless steel, you have to deal with chromium vapour. Which will destroy your lungs in very small doses. Hence the sensible treat it like playing with cyanide.
    ** Some electric welding methods put out insane amounts of UV. You can literally get a hospital grade sun burn in a matter of a few seconds.
    Yes, the filtering respirators are in use in ICU , hoods for those that don't fit, for AGP (Aerosol Generating Procedures). The masks and visors are used for non AGP work.
    How comfortable are the full face mask systems? - I really appreciated the air-conditioning effect from the blown air, and the edge of face seal felt much more comfortable than a separate mask/face shield setup... Another thing was the ease of taking it off/putting it on - once the straps were setup for me, it was pull on/pull off.
    They are reasonably comfortable, or so I am told by those who have them, at least for a few hours. The hoods are very comfy, but very poor acoustically, with the wearer effectively deaf, and that can be an issue.

    I don't get either at present. Mask, visor and gloves, but I am looking after non covid19 patients.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,811

    Ch4 reporting arrests in Hong Kong of protest leaders....good day to bury bad news.

    After the results in the local elections last year I imagine the authorities were a bit worried about the legislative elections that are due for this year.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Dodgy statistical reasoning. For instance Gloucestershire cover 25% more people than the next one down on that list (Great Western). You have to look at all the population aspects before drawing a conclusion especially density of population. It is suggestive but wrong to present it as conclusive.
    But there is another cluster in South Wales - Stereophonics

    Is there a similar cluster in Liverpool after the atletico match and Edinburgh after the rugger?
    Firstly, 200,000 people did not attend Cheltenham. The Festival lasts four days and many racegoers will go for more than one day; you can't naively multiply the daily attendance by four. Let's call it 80,000. And around 15,000 of those will be from Ireland so why have the Irish doctors not reported hundreds of patients back from the races?
    Quite. It is AMAZING how successful this panic has been at creating armchair epidemiologists. I suspect none will be held accountable at the inquiry, afterwards, however...
    You’re wrong. Several clusters in Europe have now been credibly linked to public events. Football matches in Italy etc. This is how pandemics spread. This is why public gatherings are banned by all nations now.

    Cheltenham certainly spread the disease. The question is: how much
    I'm not wrong. Lots of people with few or no qualifications are suggesting they have expertise.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2020
    How long can dentists realistically remain closed? Already two weeks. Yes there are specialist clinics for those in need of literal life saving emergency treatment, but people suffering with say a cavatity? The longer you leave that, the more emergencies you are going to get.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,430
    HYUFD said:
    I'd be more worried about how much personal data is being handed over to foreign tech giants (and the CIA) in the search for a cure.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/17/rolls_royce_data_science_alliance_coronavirus/

    Not to mention Cabinet meetings held via Zoom so the Chinese government can listen in.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,265
    eadric said:

    OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....

    Channel 5 showed Oliver this afternoon. Such a classic. My favourite musical of all time. My wife has never seen it and she watched the Consider Yourself sequence and nearly wept. The virus makes us all emotional
    Whisky Galore is a gold standard B&W classic.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Hardly unseen, I posted it this morning
    We discussed it at the time in a Brexit context, which is what it was aimed at.

    The barriers Johnson mentioned weren't really temporary ones, the speech was about setting the UK up as some European Singapore.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    eadric said:

    OT - BBC iPlayer has some cracking movies - binged on Indiana Jones, and as contrast watched two Ealing comedies - The Titfield Thunderbolt (Sunil, if you haven't seen it you should) and Whisky Galore. The curmudgeon was English, if anyone thought Malc was cast....

    Channel 5 showed Oliver this afternoon. Such a classic. My favourite musical of all time. My wife has never seen it and she watched the Consider Yourself sequence and nearly wept. The virus makes us all emotional
    And then there's this.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUspLVStPbk
This discussion has been closed.