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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I am betting more on Warren being Biden’s VP pick
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I am betting more on Warren being Biden’s VP pick
Over the past 24 hours I’ve changed my betting position on Biden’s VP to put most of my money on Elizabeth Warren. This came after reading this from Taegan Goddard on his Politicalwire site under the heading “Warren Angling to Be Biden’s Veep” following her annoucement that she was seeking the job:
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My sympathy and condolences to you and all your family at this time
https://twitter.com/KirstieMAllsopp/status/1251466361601130496?s=20
Replication code for "Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries"
Code for modelling estimated deaths and cases for COVID19 from Report 13 published by MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London:
https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model
And the more human readable stuff,
https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/details/United_Kingdom
Regarding Japanese-German cooperation during WW2, the only notable campaign was the Germans and Italians sending U-boats into the Indian Ocean:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monsun_Gruppe
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1251256269366792194?s=20
However if Biden wants to add a youthful female then Whitmer is still a good bet, especially as she represents a swing state in Michigan while Warren represents Massachusetts which is already safely Democratic
Trump: "You want Pocahontas as President, when sleepy Joe finally falls asleep?"
I also don’t think it says too much for Warren if she’s using fundraising to angle for a personal position when she really isn’t the best candidate. Surely any thinking Democrat right now has only one priority - to get Trump out?
Sadly not the first PBer to suffer bereavement from this virus, and I fear there will be more.
Warren also gives off elitist Hillary vibes that would hinder Biden with key switch voters. Just going with Harris would be fine.
But...Biden was my best political bet ever...he ticked all the boxes.....
And on this one...I agree....I think Warren would be a great pic
"The government’s response to Covid-19 and Brexit are intimately connected...
On the face of it there is a very great difference between the two policies.... But there is an underlying connection which is important. Brexiter arguments are centred on fantasies about British scientific and inventive genius. The government has sought to address Covid-19 at least in part on this deluded basis.
At the beginning Boris Johnson stood behind ‘the science’ to justify a UK-only policy of ‘delay’ of the Covid-19 virus. This involved minimal intervention in what Johnson took to reminding us are the ‘freedom-loving’ proclivities of those ‘born in England’. Too late, what looked like a cunning plan to exemplify the virtues of the British way collapsed utterly. The UK is now broadly speaking following Europe and much of the rest of the world.
But when it comes to ventilators a Brexiter innovation fixated logic applies. The current crisis has been an opportunity to illustrate the argument that the UK was a powerful innovation nation that could do very well without the EU....
There were lots of allusions to the second world war as if Spitfires had been conjured out of thin air in the heat generated by patriotic enthusiasm. That wartime analogy was deeply misleading – the UK was a world leader in aircraft before the Battle of Britain. It had been making Spitfires since the late 1930s, and had huge long-planned specialist factories making them....
One cannot magic an industry out of thin air, whether high end ventilators or batteries, but by referencing innovation one can pretend, for a while. And that is where the politics of Covid-19, and Brexit, are stuck, in cynical fantasies about innovation."
https://www.davidedgerton.org/blog/2020/4/18/the-governments-response-to-covid-19-and-brexit-are-intimately-connectednbsp
Harris also represents California, so like Warren represents a safe Democratic state.
Whitmer who represents Michigan, a swing state Trump won in 2016, brings more to the table than either Harris or Warren
However Biden will appeal more in rustbelt swing states like Pennsylvania where he grew up and with blue collar voters (while still winning California and New York even by a smaller margin) so I expect a closer result in the Electoral College which actually decides the Presidency.
I am deeply sceptical that Biden is the person to do that. But Biden and Warren together? Pur-lease.
Read the whole article, as it expands itself more fully than what I've highlighted.
Gore didn't bring home his state in 2000....so the state stuff is a red herring...
Warren is what Biden needs....someone who can do the heavy lifting...he can be sleepy Joe...... and she can be the ballbuster....and for Trump you need someone who can bust balls...
"Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 2020-04-16: 4.19% [3.04%-5.75%] (mean [95% credible interval])."
Others: Germany 0.82%, Italy 3.95%, France 4.14%, Spain 6.22%, Sweden 10.56%, Belgium 10.65%
Biden needs a presence....and Warren gives him that....
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1251468056397787136?s=20
In a tight race...Gore couldn't bring in his home state....
I think this is going to be a Democratic landslide btw....but..if it's tight, I would want someone who can fight hard and fight dirty against Trump....Biden cannot do that, but Warren can.....she is knuckleduster kick ass operator....
"The [Reopen America] rally in Austin was organized by Owen Shroyer, the host of a show on Infowars, a website based in Austin that was founded by Alex Jones and traffics in conspiracy theories. Mr. Shroyer told his Infowars audience this week that the coronavirus was part of a scheme by the Chinese Communist Party and the so-called deep state to undermine Mr. Trump , and that reports of overwhelmed hospitals like those in New York were “propaganda.” "
Those infections between 12th and 23rd March, you can see why people are seeing this as a massive mistake.
Looking at other countries the Belgian graph is shocking. What is happening, are they ignoring the lockdown?
I do wonder if the betting value is on the men. Joe may forget choosing a woman
I dread similar news of my Mother in Law in her nursing home on the Isle of Wight.
The comment about Mark I s ain't far off as an analogy goes, just remember that Defiants found a use.
https://twitter.com/thomalexday/status/1251510236931928064?s=19
Seems so wrt the UK 12th-23rd. Hindsight and all, of course.
wrt Belgium, their problem is apparently particularly acute in care homes - friend in Brussels heard rumours of near 100% infection rates in some of them.
Just not who they voted for to be nominee.
Hardcore Bernie Bros don't like anyone, their twisted logic has got many of them saying they will vote for Trump.
All best wishes.
That's also precisely the situation in hand in the UK wrt these ventilators.
We aren't moving out of lockdown until he's back. What sort of a country puts such an important decision on hold until an ill PM happens to be ready to return to work.
It's ludicrous.
Oh and I know we are in for another three weeks but if you can't see the principle here then you are beyond helping.
The rest is just an excuse for Johnson-hate.
Of course it's another three weeks because we have had the scientists tell us that. But what if it wasn't?
What if it isn't in three weeks time but Boris is still out of action?
Evidence also that countries implementing lockdown early have had more success getting their Rt number below 1.
That doesn't absolve the UK of anything wrt testing and PPE. The government (specifically Hancock) has been been asleep at the wheel and we have no way out because we can't test up to 300k people per day like Germany and our doctors and nurses are being put in harm's way because the government failed to procure enough PPE or bring UK industry into the picture early enough to get domestic supplies in place in time for the expected shortage.
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1251563504118771712
So sorry to hear about your father.
We come in here, retweeting and posting stuff that confirms our world view, slag each other off because we can't understand why some bloke can't cope with lockdown or cry because we can't buy bread yeast, but it's easy to forget the bottom line. That bottom line is that this virus is real, and for some families it has taken loved ones.
Look after yerself, marra.
The failure to obtain large amounts of testing equipment was another big error of judgment, according to the Downing Street source. It would later be one of the big scandals of the coronavirus crisis that the considerable capacity of Britain’s private laboratories to mass-produce tests was not harnessed during those crucial weeks of February.
“We should have communicated with every commercial testing laboratory that might volunteer to become part of the government’s testing regime but that didn’t happen,” said the source.
The lack of action was confirmed by Doris-Ann Williams, chief executive of the British In Vitro Diagnostics Association, which represents 110 companies that make up most of the UK’s testing sector. Amazingly, she says her organisation did not receive a meaningful approach from the government asking for help until April 1 — the night before Hancock bowed to pressure and announced a belated and ambitious target of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month.
Oh and this
It was a message repeated throughout February but the warnings appear to have fallen on deaf ears. The need, for example, to boost emergency supplies of protective masks and gowns for health workers was pressing, but little progress was made in obtaining the items from the manufacturers, mainly in China.
Instead, the government sent supplies the other way — shipping 279,000 items of its depleted stockpile of protective equipment to China during this period, following a request for help from the authorities there.
From that Sunday Times article. What a shambles.