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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Wonder if this will come up in Sturgeon's Press conference?

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1249991803207647232?s=20
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228

    I suggest reading some works on how it is done - it's as real as the stage magic trick of getting you to pick a card etc...
    Yes, I suspect Derren Brown could probably do that too, but he doesn't claim to be a psychic!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300
    "Experts: know your limits
    The response to Covid-19 demands political judgement which goes way beyond the remit of epidemiologists.
    Norman Lewis"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/14/experts-know-your-limits/
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    Why are you such an angry man? Can you not conceive why a wing of Labour is so distressed to find that their close running campaigns were neutered by senior administrators. Tranches of funding used with no oversight, and favoured MPs given preferential access to money. There is even evidence of campaign data not being provided to those on the ground. This had a real effect on the 2017 campaign.

    Can you not see that this is systemic nepotism and it will cost the entity the trust of a significant percentage of its dues paying members?

    Your partisan comments on this site suggest that you see this as a war and you will not be happy until these MPs are removed. IMO this makes you no different from the Momentumites calling for mandatory reselection. You are the worst kind of party man, one that can only view the issue through their own prism and refuse to accept that labour will have a left wing element. No doubt, you will again leave the party when it won't conform to your blinkered sectarianism.
    Of course the report could just be another delusional exercise in self-justification by the Corbynistas explaining why nothing was their fault.

    I have rejoined in order to support Starmer candidates in NEC elections. Sir Keir needs to do what Kinnock did with Militant, publicly boot out Milne, Formby and co to make it crystal clear to voters that the party is no longer controlled by the Corbynites.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,231

    Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.

    So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.

    That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.

    This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    I suggest reading some works on how it is done - it's as real as the stage magic trick of getting you to pick a card etc...
    They subliminally talk you into being born on a particular date
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,836
    edited April 2020

    Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence, but, in the right meteorological conditions, planes can be responsible for a lot of cirrus cloud, which can make an otherwise cloudless day more than a little hazy.

    Worth noting that this April is currently vying with the April of the Cambridge's Royal Wedding (2011) to be the warmest in the Central England Temperature record (since 1659) and air traffic was pretty normal in 2011.

    So far this year the average Central England Temperature is so warm it is off the chart.
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif
    Yes, granted. Though it doesn't feel that warm in South Manchester! It is however beautiful, clear and cloudless. I don't know how this compares to the last twenty years, but it feels remarkable.

    However it compares, your first seven words are still relevant!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...
    As the ONS pointed out on Twitter, they have records back to the early 1800s... so perhaps not 2005 as regularly claimed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited April 2020

    Why should I not be surprised that a supporter/believer of Brexit also believes in astrology.
    Actually Remain voters were more likely to believe in Astrology than Leave voters (12% vs 8%).

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274

    They subliminally talk you into being born on a particular date
    It's a variant of social engineering. Which is now, quite a formal discipline.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300
    Interesting that there's a divergence in the figures between "tolerant" and "cares about ordinary people". You'd think they'd be fairly similar.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.

    So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.

    Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour Party was set up after Blair won the Labour leadership in 1994 and Clause IV was repealed of cause
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    I think it is unrealistic to expect that an objective measure could ever be put into place and be widely accepted.
    Why? One astrologer, one prediction, under controlled conditions. If it works, it'll be studied, and people will try and replicate the results and build on them. That's how science works.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.

    This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.
    That implies the reasoning why labour did so well, or so bad is purely something which labour controls. It wasn't. The Tory offering in 2017 (being May, and her disaster of a campaign both policy wise and personally), masked many issues for labour.

    Also, Corbyn in 2017 wasn't Corbyn in 2019. The public were far more forgiving on him.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited April 2020
    Cookie said:
    I think what they meant to say is "data since the oldest date we could get from goggling the ONS website".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    I'm not really a fan of retrofitting folk with descriptions post mortem; afaik Orwell described himself as a democratic socialist until his death.
    It can be overdone, true, but people are sometimes pretty bad at self labelling so how they think of themselves is not accurate.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?

    https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=21
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that there's a divergence in the figures between "tolerant" and "cares about ordinary people". You'd think they'd be fairly similar.
    The Tories are viewed as tolerant of ordinary people. :tongue:

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,866
    edited April 2020

    That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.

    This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.
    Hang on. This "report" alleges that the then HQ team actively conspired against the leader. And delivered +30 seats. The left didn't take over until 2019 when the result was -60.

    EDIT: In 2017 the professional Southside team worked to firstly defend Labour seats against the Tory threat where internal polls showed them taking seats like West Bromwich East. Then the agenda swung in a once-in-a-generation event as the Tories imploded their own campaign. We know that people were willing to vote Labour to stop Brexit. In 2019 the professionals had gone and instead Labour targeted all kinds of silly seats and chose to send activists into seats like Cities and Finchely to wreck the traitors.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,794

    That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.

    This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.
    Labour didn't do well in 2017. They lost. They didn't lose as badly as 2019 because no one then thought Corbyn was a threat, so many perhaps voted for Labour as a method of reducing the predicted TMay landslide. Corbyn was a disaster for Labour and a disaster for the country as his inept "leadership" enabled the election of one of the most right wing populist governments in recent history that has been able to pretend that it's victory was an endorsement of its Brexit strategy, when in reality it was a "Jeremy Corbyn-no-thanks" election.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,587

    That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.

    This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.
    Turnout?
  • Fundamentally, Labour have the same problem the Tories had last year. Both parties like to talk about being "big tent" but there are limits as to how far you can stretch that.

    In the end, to unite the Tory party either the hardcore leavers or the hardcore remainers had to go to finally end the civil war on Europe (it ended up with the hardcore remainers leaving).

    In the same way to unite Labour, either the hardcore Corbynites or the hardcore Blairites have to go. It initially looked like the Blairites would leave with the foundation of the TIGs. Now it looks like the Corbynites have to go.

    That doesn't mean a purge and it doesn't mean everyone on the left has to leave but those who can't be reconciled to the direction of travel, will have to go (hopefully of their own volition). Bearing in mind a lot of them were previously in the Greens or Socialist Workers and tend to live in ultra-safe Labour seats, it wouldn't be a great loss.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    The chart is not particularly useful as it's impossible to see what the long-term damage is. Does the economy bounce back to where it was, or is it 5% smaller?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    kle4 said:

    It can be overdone, true, but people are sometimes pretty bad at self labelling so how they think of themselves is not accurate.
    Perhaps the best summary of Orwell's views was that he viewed the 1945 Labour Government as very, very good, but not perfect.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,363
    Socky said:

    “That rifle on the wall of the labourer's cottage or working class flat is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.”

    ― George Orwell
    I think that quote was in a newspaper piece about the Home Guard.

    'Even as it stands, the Home Guard could only exist in a country where men feel themselves free. The totalitarian states can do great things, but there is one thing they cannot do: they cannot give the factory-worker a rifle and tell him to take it home and keep it in his bedroom. That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage, is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.'

    Context etc.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    isam said:

    Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?

    https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=21

    Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.

    A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274

    Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.

    A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.



    Not necessarily - there has been justified concern that stopping routine NHS operations/treatments will have an effect. Also, people are definitely not seeking out medical attention - possibly when it is required.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923

    Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.

    A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.



    Readers of Daniel Defoe will recognise this feature of the mortality statistics.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...
    Not at all - the purpose of an earlier lockdown (or other measures to stop the spread) would be purposefully to avoid the graph looking like that.

    Plot a similar graph for Taiwan, say, and it won't look like ours.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    tlg86 said:

    The chart is not particularly useful as it's impossible to see what the long-term damage is. Does the economy bounce back to where it was, or is it 5% smaller?
    The bounce looks bigger. There are some real opportunities ahead here, I think it’s best to stop looking at the hit, but at what comes next instead. Robert’s post yesterday about the danger of crony capitalism and shoring up current wealth was on the money, it’s a time to let the new lead us instead.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,794

    Wonder if this will come up in Sturgeon's Press conference?

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1249991803207647232?s=20

    Usual nationalist divisive lies. How long before Brexiteers try to excuse our terrible death rate compared to Germany by some similarly mendacious story about Germans/EU/foreigners?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Fundamentally, Labour have the same problem the Tories had last year. Both parties like to talk about being "big tent" but there are limits as to how far you can stretch that.

    In the end, to unite the Tory party either the hardcore leavers or the hardcore remainers had to go to finally end the civil war on Europe (it ended up with the hardcore remainers leaving).

    In the same way to unite Labour, either the hardcore Corbynites or the hardcore Blairites have to go. It initially looked like the Blairites would leave with the foundation of the TIGs. Now it looks like the Corbynites have to go.

    That doesn't mean a purge and it doesn't mean everyone on the left has to leave but those who can't be reconciled to the direction of travel, will have to go (hopefully of their own volition). Bearing in mind a lot of them were previously in the Greens or Socialist Workers and tend to live in ultra-safe Labour seats, it wouldn't be a great loss.

    I think the point about the limits of being big tent is something the parties need to take to heart
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,231

    That implies the reasoning why labour did so well, or so bad is purely something which labour controls. It wasn't. The Tory offering in 2017 (being May, and her disaster of a campaign both policy wise and personally), masked many issues for labour.

    Also, Corbyn in 2017 wasn't Corbyn in 2019. The public were far more forgiving on him.

    Pundits underplay, I think, the impact of the terrorist attacks during the 2017 election campaign, which underscored May's police cuts and not in a good way. Look at the Conservative platform last year to see where Boris and CCHQ think 2017 went wrong and what they think May did right, like ducking debates.

    In 2019, below-the-radar social media campaigning by (or rather on behalf of) the Conservatives is also underestimated and unexplored, along with my own theory of Corbyn's glasses.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856

    Why should I not be surprised that a supporter/believer of Brexit also believes in astrology. Probably believes in fairies, pixies and Father Christmas also. lol.
    In the quoted post above I state explicitly that I don't believe in it. Should we be surprised that a continuity remainer misses the blinking obvious?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Not necessarily - there has been justified concern that stopping routine NHS operations/treatments will have an effect. Also, people are definitely not seeking out medical attention - possibly when it is required.
    My guess would be that the uptick in deaths from other illnesses will be lagging by quite a bit - we'll probably see it in the data for the next few years at least, but it's unlikely to be discernible yet.

    Reduction in road traffic deaths will be having an immediate impact, but in the other direction.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923

    If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...
    Thankfully not since records began. It would be interesting to see a comparison with the numbers for 1918-1919.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829

    That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.

    This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.

    I think the answer is the same for both elections - Brexit. In 17 it worked for Labour and in 19 against them. Run a GE with Corbyn Labour versus Generic Tory with no Brexit and I think they win 240 seats. So GE17 flatters them. But by the same token GE19 is too harsh a measure.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,363
    edited April 2020
    kle4 said:

    It can be overdone, true, but people are sometimes pretty bad at self labelling so how they think of themselves is not accurate.
    If Orwell was to be defined by all the groups who want to co-opt him postmortem for their cause, he'd need to be called an anarcho libertarian, antifascist, anticommunist, British nationalist, English nationalist, unionist, Eurosceptic, Europhiliac, liberal, conservative socialist (and that's just a few of them).

    I think I'll stick with the simpler self description.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Endillion said:

    My guess would be that the uptick in deaths from other illnesses will be lagging by quite a bit - we'll probably see it in the data for the next few years at least, but it's unlikely to be discernible yet.

    Reduction in road traffic deaths will be having an immediate impact, but in the other direction.
    RT deaths are negligible - 1770 a year
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    If Orwell was to be defined by all the groups who want to co-opt him postmortem for their cause, he'd need to be called an anarcho, libertarian, antifascist, anticommunist, British nationalist, English nationalist, unionist, Eurosceptic, Europhiliac, liberal, conservative socialist (and that's just a few of them).

    I think I'll stick with the simpler self description.
    I wasnt making a point about Orwell specifically - I dont know enough about him to dispute his own labelling - just that retrofitted descriptions can potentially be reasonable particularly when politicians can be pretty shameless in claiming one position while embodying another.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    Cookie said:

    Yes, granted. Though it doesn't feel that warm in South Manchester! It is however beautiful, clear and cloudless. I don't know how this compares to the last twenty years, but it feels remarkable.

    However it compares, your first seven words are still relevant!
    I'm sure there will be some interesting papers soon on the cloud differences. We didn't have as good satellite observations when air traffic was last this low, so it makes for an interesting observational experiment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,231

    Labour didn't do well in 2017. They lost. They didn't lose as badly as 2019 because no one then thought Corbyn was a threat, so many perhaps voted for Labour as a method of reducing the predicted TMay landslide. Corbyn was a disaster for Labour and a disaster for the country as his inept "leadership" enabled the election of one of the most right wing populist governments in recent history that has been able to pretend that it's victory was an endorsement of its Brexit strategy, when in reality it was a "Jeremy Corbyn-no-thanks" election.
    Trouble with that analysis is it does not explain the difference two years made, and blames Corbyn and not Corbynism. That might be correct but if so, the logical thing to have done was elect Rebecca Long-Bailey to succeed him. Indeed, Boris ran on large parts of Labour's 2017 platform so perhaps he agrees with you!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539
    Option 1 I think. Probably too early for lockdown to be leading to more deaths than usual. If anything I think other deaths might be down a bit.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Thankfully not since records began. It would be interesting to see a comparison with the numbers for 1918-1919.
    Interesting, but not necessarily that helpful. 1918 was a much less connected world, and Spanish flu (as best as we can tell) was less infectious than Covid-19. Plus I'd guess that requirements for registering deaths promptly were less stringent?

    All of which, coupled with difficulties in separating out deaths due to the War (direct and indirect) at the start of the epidemic means you'd probably see less of an obvious peak and more of a continuous pattern of deaths in excess of the baseline. Although that baseline would presumably have to be taken as pre-1914, for obvious reasons.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829

    Pundits underplay, I think, the impact of the terrorist attacks during the 2017 election campaign, which underscored May's police cuts and not in a good way. Look at the Conservative platform last year to see where Boris and CCHQ think 2017 went wrong and what they think May did right, like ducking debates.

    In 2019, below-the-radar social media campaigning by (or rather on behalf of) the Conservatives is also underestimated and unexplored, along with my own theory of Corbyn's glasses.

    The glasses were IMO not a trivial issue but were marginal. Cost maybe 5 seats.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy

    Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.

    KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame

    Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.

    These people are racist apologists.
  • Dodds the first vaguely sensible Labour politician in some time.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,016
    .
    tlg86 said:

    Option 1 I think. Probably too early for lockdown to be leading to more deaths than usual. If anything I think other deaths might be down a bit.
    Option 2 is also significant. My daughter-in-law's father died of cancer in a Madrid hospital undergoing massive disruption due to CV19. Who's to say how much that disruption shortened his life?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670



    Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.

    KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame

    No, absolutely not true. The conversation is the people DISCUSSING A CONSPIRACY THEORY about that. They absolutely did not say that is what they were doing.

    Their conversation has been edited for the consumption of Twitter to make it seem like they were doing it. If you had actually read the full exchange you would know that was not true.

    Don't spread fake news.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Dodds the first vaguely sensible Labour politician in some time.

    Yet before the election you were telling us they were fit for government ....

    Strange that
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    I think that [Orwell] quote was in a newspaper piece about the Home Guard.

    'Even as it stands, the Home Guard could only exist in a country where men feel themselves free. The totalitarian states can do great things, but there is one thing they cannot do: they cannot give the factory-worker a rifle and tell him to take it home and keep it in his bedroom. That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage, is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.'

    Context etc.

    The context here is whether Orwell would be comfortable in the modern Labour party. Can you imagine any of the major parties in the UK trusting normal people with a rifle?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829

    I think that quote was in a newspaper piece about the Home Guard.

    'Even as it stands, the Home Guard could only exist in a country where men feel themselves free. The totalitarian states can do great things, but there is one thing they cannot do: they cannot give the factory-worker a rifle and tell him to take it home and keep it in his bedroom. That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage, is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.'

    Context etc.

    Phew!

    Unfortunately 1984 and 'Farm' have already gone up in flames here. Not too late for 'Pier' and 'Aspidistra' though.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy

    Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.

    KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame

    Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.

    These people are racist apologists.

    NOW you are bothered about anti semitism??

    Better late than never
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    I suggest reading some works on how [guessing star signs] is done - it's as real as the stage magic trick of getting you to pick a card etc...

    Can you expand? I am genuinely interested.

    FWIW I understand that the woman I referred to said she used personality types and hobbies.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The OBR forecasts just published make good reading for Sunak.

    35% shrinkage in GDP in 2Q

    2m extra unemployed.

    and just the GBP218bn in extra debt this year.

    That GBP218bn will hang like an albatross around this government neck. It will ensure they can do nothing for the rest of this parliament but try to steal money from conservative voters when they are not looking.

    Well, its their call!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,231
    Endillion said:

    Interesting, but not necessarily that helpful. 1918 was a much less connected world, and Spanish flu (as best as we can tell) was less infectious than Covid-19. Plus I'd guess that requirements for registering deaths promptly were less stringent?

    All of which, coupled with difficulties in separating out deaths due to the War (direct and indirect) at the start of the epidemic means you'd probably see less of an obvious peak and more of a continuous pattern of deaths in excess of the baseline. Although that baseline would presumably have to be taken as pre-1914, for obvious reasons.
    1918 was a very connected world thanks firstly to the Great War where infected recruits took the flu to the trenches, and then secondly to the end of the war and infected troops going home to countries all round the world.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy

    Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.

    KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame

    Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.

    These people are racist apologists.

    I find that an appealing story - principled left-wing campaigner undermined by traitorous Blairites. I so want it to be true.

    I can't reconcile it with all the other facts available, though. What of the interventions by Corbyn's office to stop expulsions of specific individuals, to give just one example?
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    My mother-in-law was very upset when my father-in-law's death certificate had "smoking" on it. I don't suppose consistency is possible on this kind of thing.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Lockdown needs to end soon

    Telegraph.

    OBR: Britain faces biggest budget deficit since WW2
    The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that borrowing could surge to £273bn this year, equivalent to 14pc of GDP – far outstripping the peak deficit of 10pc in the financial crisis.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,363
    Socky said:

    The context here is whether Orwell would be comfortable in the modern Labour party. Can you imagine any of the major parties in the UK trusting normal people with a rifle?

    Well, if only everyone was normal people.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    IshmaelZ said:

    RT deaths are negligible - 1770 a year
    Yeah, alright. There are probably some other causes (industrial accidents?) that are also depressed right now, but it probably doesn't affect the overall picture.

    What might matter is a meaningful reduction in the c. 400 pw serious injuries we see from road accidents - but that's a long term effect.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,815

    As for astrology, I am not a subscriber, but it is perfectly possible that the movement of celestial bodies has a greater impact on the lives of humans than is measurable currently. .

    If you're talking about meteorite or comet impacts, then you undoubtedly have a point.
    Similarly, sunrise; sunset; the tides; seasons; solar storms...

    Otherwise, not so much. (ie it's utter bollocks.)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    No, absolutely not true. The conversation is the people DISCUSSING A CONSPIRACY THEORY about that. They absolutely did not say that is what they were doing.

    Their conversation has been edited for the consumption of Twitter to make it seem like they were doing it. If you had actually read the full exchange you would know that was not true.

    Don't spread fake news.
    I have read all 800 pages and they were not dealing with cases of AS with the speed they should have or using the expulsion from the Party of Anti Semites tool, if it could damage Corbyn, or the culprit was on the correct side of the party. The number one priority should have been to rid the party of proven Anti Semites the Party staff deliberately dragged heels.

    Look at the number of expulsions under McNicholl compared to once he had gone.

    You are trying to spin the report in a fake way Alistair
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,281

    The OBR forecasts just published make good reading for Sunak.

    35% shrinkage in GDP in 2Q

    2m extra unemployed.

    and just the GBP218bn in extra debt this year.

    That GBP218bn will hang like an albatross around this government neck. It will ensure they can do nothing for the rest of this parliament but try to steal money from conservative voters when they are not looking.

    Well, its their call!

    If additional unemployment peaks at 2m Sunak will have done a very good job!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I have read all 800 pages and they were not dealing with cases of AS with the speed they should have or using the expulsion from the Party of Anti Semites tool, if it could damage Corbyn, or the culprit was on the correct side of the party. The number one priority should have been to rid the party of proven Anti Semites the Party staff deliberately dragged heels.

    Look at the number of expulsions under McNicholl compared to once he had gone.

    You are trying to spin the report in a fake way Alistair
    Quote the actual Ken Livingston conversation then, the one that you says shows Tom Watson intervened to keep Ken around.

    You won't because it doesn't say what you said it did.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,815
    tlg86 said:

    Option 1 I think. Probably too early for lockdown to be leading to more deaths than usual. If anything I think other deaths might be down a bit.
    The under-reporting/recording of Covid deaths appears to be a worldwide phenomenon. Given the problems testing everyone, coupled with a significant number of false negatives, that's not exactly surprising.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,281
    Nigelb said:

    If you're talking about meteorite or comet impacts, then you undoubtedly have a point.
    Similarly, sunrise; sunset; the tides; seasons; solar storms...

    Otherwise, not so much. (ie it's utter bollocks.)
    There are probably also personality differences depending on birth months because of our school year start dates, not sure that is what mystic meg is relying on though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365
    isam said:
    I wonder why cumulative is now the best way to show this, when last week plotting weekly deaths was fine?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    If additional unemployment peaks at 2m Sunak will have done a very good job!
    If furloughed counts as employed, surely that should be lower?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    I find that an appealing story - principled left-wing campaigner undermined by traitorous Blairites. I so want it to be true.

    I can't reconcile it with all the other facts available, though. What of the interventions by Corbyn's office to stop expulsions of specific individuals, to give just one example?
    Give me a single example of an intervention from Corbyns office to stop an expulsion . If the information came from HQ staffers its probably BS and the report gives you dozens of examples where McNicholls staff applied a light touch so that AS on the right werent punished at all

    I say to you look at the number of expulsions under this lot and contrast with Formbys tenure.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    I wonder why cumulative is now the best way to show this, when last week plotting weekly deaths was fine?
    It is certainly an education we are receiving.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Endillion said:

    Interesting, but not necessarily that helpful. 1918 was a much less connected world, and Spanish flu (as best as we can tell) was less infectious than Covid-19. Plus I'd guess that requirements for registering deaths promptly were less stringent?

    All of which, coupled with difficulties in separating out deaths due to the War (direct and indirect) at the start of the epidemic means you'd probably see less of an obvious peak and more of a continuous pattern of deaths in excess of the baseline. Although that baseline would presumably have to be taken as pre-1914, for obvious reasons.
    Spanish flu infected 500 million people
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    The V shaped economic recovery looks wildly optimistic for the UK to me particularly if the health problem isn't fully (elimination or a vaccine neither of which look likely this year) sorted within the year.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    RobD said:

    I wonder why cumulative is now the best way to show this, when last week plotting weekly deaths was fine?
    I would have thought the period prior to the first Covid death was irrelevant myself
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    The OBR forecasts just published make good reading for Sunak.

    35% shrinkage in GDP in 2Q

    2m extra unemployed.

    and just the GBP218bn in extra debt this year.

    That GBP218bn will hang like an albatross around this government neck. It will ensure they can do nothing for the rest of this parliament but try to steal money from conservative voters when they are not looking.

    Well, its their call!

    It's not like they've got many good choices, though.
    We're in the middle of a natural catastrophe. It's a surreal one, because for the majority it is, at the moment, a cozy, comfortable, catastrophe - unless you're in the front line of the NHS or you have the disease right now.

    If it would be more economically catastrophic to release the lockdown early (as per the considered opinions of the vast majority of economists), then it's not a choice of this or service as usual. It's between this and potentially worse alternatives.

    But with the blue skies outside, all home comforts on tap, it's difficult to comprehend the magnitude of what's happening.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,815
    RobD said:

    I wonder why cumulative is now the best way to show this, when last week plotting weekly deaths was fine?
    It doesn't really matter.
    Imagine we had not locked down, and extend that week and a half uptick a couple of months forward...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365

    Spanish flu infected 500 million people
    Coronavirus probably up to about 20 million by now, if we assumed figures are underreported by a factor of ten.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,281
    edited April 2020

    On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy

    Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.

    KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame

    Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.

    These people are racist apologists.

    The Corbynista gripes are fair if the report is accurate. As an outsider, floating voter who has been desperate for an opposition I could vote for, it just shows what a shambles Labour were. Most of us dont care who started it or why, what we need to see is no tolerance for racism and a competent, united party.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Never in the field of human conflict has so much been owed by so many to so few...
    "He must be talking about our back-pay, then."
    I was watching a documentary about the Spanish Armada the other day.

    They mentioned that after the Armada the government didn't pay the navy's wages. When the sailors complained they were dying of starvation, Cecil (I think) said that "at least if they starve to death we won't have to pay them"... by the end of 1588 about half of them were dead of sickness or hunger.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365
    .

    I would have thought the period prior to the first Covid death was irrelevant myself
    The agenda he seems to be pushing is that these people would have all died anyway. Well, we've just run out of those people and they are still dying, and the statistics are a week out of date already.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573
    Nigelb said:
    But Trump is in total control and has total authority right?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300
    RobD said:

    .

    The agenda he seems to be pushing is that these people would have all died anyway. Well, we've just run out of those people and they are still dying, and the statistics are a week out of date already.
    It wouldn't say it's an agenda.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,281

    If furloughed counts as employed, surely that should be lower?
    I dont think so. Furlough is very helpful but isnt going to stop lots of companies going bust and others downsizing. If you are in hospitality or travel for example the picture will remain bleak for 2020 and maybe 2021 not just a couple of months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,815
    The 45-64 uptick demonstrates just how different this is from the seasonal flu...

    https://twitter.com/DanBebber/status/1249990619365281793
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    Charles said:

    I was watching a documentary about the Spanish Armada the other day.

    They mentioned that after the Armada the government didn't pay the navy's wages. When the sailors complained they were dying of starvation, Cecil (I think) said that "at least if they starve to death we won't have to pay them"... by the end of 1588 about half of them were dead of sickness or hunger.
    I mentioned the Armada down thread.

    A naval chap I met told me that there were documents in the Admiralty archives complaining about Admiral Nelson. Apparently the expenditure of ammunition by ships under his command was something shocking. Not to mention repair bills.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Usual nationalist divisive lies. How long before Brexiteers try to excuse our terrible death rate compared to Germany by some similarly mendacious story about Germans/EU/foreigners?
    If it’s a lie it needs to be nailed promptly. If it’s not and it’s some attempt at national coordination it looks like a communications cock up.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    As the ONS pointed out on Twitter, they have records back to the early 1800s... so perhaps not 2005 as regularly claimed.
    I suspect the Somme was worse. But would that be UK mortality or French mortality?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,815

    But Trump is in total control and has total authority right?
    'Absolute', I believe is the precise description of his authoritative control...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365
    Andy_JS said:

    It wouldn't say it's an agenda.
    What would you call it? The argument has been (and you can see it in the tweet) is that these are a "pools of people" who would die when the next virus comes along.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365

    If it’s a lie it needs to be nailed promptly. If it’s not and it’s some attempt at national coordination it looks like a communications cock up.
    Jason Leitch is probably a unionist southern jessie.

    Am I doing this right?
This discussion has been closed.