politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The lockdown continues to paralyse the country, LAB might have
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Wonder if this will come up in Sturgeon's Press conference?
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1249991803207647232?s=200 -
Yes, I suspect Derren Brown could probably do that too, but he doesn't claim to be a psychic!Malmesbury said:
I suggest reading some works on how it is done - it's as real as the stage magic trick of getting you to pick a card etc...edmundintokyo said:
Could be the old "ask them when their birthday is" trickSocky said:
Anecdote: My aunt worked with a woman who after five minutes chatting to someone, could predict their star sign with near 100% accuracy.0 -
"Experts: know your limits
The response to Covid-19 demands political judgement which goes way beyond the remit of epidemiologists.
Norman Lewis"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/14/experts-know-your-limits/0 -
Of course the report could just be another delusional exercise in self-justification by the Corbynistas explaining why nothing was their fault.MightyAlex said:
Why are you such an angry man? Can you not conceive why a wing of Labour is so distressed to find that their close running campaigns were neutered by senior administrators. Tranches of funding used with no oversight, and favoured MPs given preferential access to money. There is even evidence of campaign data not being provided to those on the ground. This had a real effect on the 2017 campaign.RochdalePioneers said:
MPs have signed a demand which would leave the party literally bankrupt. There isn't the need for further discussion. Remove the whip from them all. They brought the fight, no point trying to obfuscate around it.rottenborough said:
Is there a book on the timing of the first sacking from the shadow ministerial team?RochdalePioneers said:
Why? Because the cult have decided to try and nuke the entire site from orbit having been forced to take off.HYUFD said:
I know that Nick P doesn't want to get involved and I get that - but he is involved. The fight has been brought, and there simply isn't a way to square the circle when you have Labour members bereft of sanity. They literally believe their revisionist nonsense about 2016 and 2017 and in 2019 when its all their fault they attack the voters as being to blame.
Unless compromise can be found then its binary - stay or go. I went. Now that the loons are in orbit I have come back. And they need to be dispatched and quickly because this will never ever end.
Starmer needs to get brutal.
Can you not see that this is systemic nepotism and it will cost the entity the trust of a significant percentage of its dues paying members?
Your partisan comments on this site suggest that you see this as a war and you will not be happy until these MPs are removed. IMO this makes you no different from the Momentumites calling for mandatory reselection. You are the worst kind of party man, one that can only view the issue through their own prism and refuse to accept that labour will have a left wing element. No doubt, you will again leave the party when it won't conform to your blinkered sectarianism.
I have rejoined in order to support Starmer candidates in NEC elections. Sir Keir needs to do what Kinnock did with Militant, publicly boot out Milne, Formby and co to make it crystal clear to voters that the party is no longer controlled by the Corbynites.0 -
Four more years of this? The Republic will break apart.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/us/politics/trump-daily-coronavirus-briefing.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage0 -
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That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.RochdalePioneers said:Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.
So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.
This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.1 -
They subliminally talk you into being born on a particular dateMalmesbury said:
I suggest reading some works on how it is done - it's as real as the stage magic trick of getting you to pick a card etc...edmundintokyo said:
Could be the old "ask them when their birthday is" trickSocky said:
Anecdote: My aunt worked with a woman who after five minutes chatting to someone, could predict their star sign with near 100% accuracy.0 -
Yes, granted. Though it doesn't feel that warm in South Manchester! It is however beautiful, clear and cloudless. I don't know how this compares to the last twenty years, but it feels remarkable.LostPassword said:
Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence, but, in the right meteorological conditions, planes can be responsible for a lot of cirrus cloud, which can make an otherwise cloudless day more than a little hazy.Cookie said:And the skies! The weather! I don't know to what extent this is linked to lack of aeroplanes (surely it can't be that simple?), but every time the planes are grounded (2001, 2010, 2020) seems to coincide with glorious, cloudless skies. I recognise there is a massive and unsustainable cost to this idyll, but it would be nice to preserve some aspects of it when and if normal life resumes.
Worth noting that this April is currently vying with the April of the Cambridge's Royal Wedding (2011) to be the warmest in the Central England Temperature record (since 1659) and air traffic was pretty normal in 2011.
So far this year the average Central England Temperature is so warm it is off the chart.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif
However it compares, your first seven words are still relevant!0 -
As the ONS pointed out on Twitter, they have records back to the early 1800s... so perhaps not 2005 as regularly claimed.MarqueeMark said:
If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...CatMan said:0 -
Actually Remain voters were more likely to believe in Astrology than Leave voters (12% vs 8%).Nigel_Foremain said:
Why should I not be surprised that a supporter/believer of Brexit also believes in astrology.Dura_Ace said:
Is it also perfectly possible that person best qualified to interpret this phenomenon is Russell fucking Grant?Luckyguy1983 said:As for astrology, I am not a subscriber, but it is perfectly possible that the movement of celestial bodies has a greater impact on the lives of humans than is measurable currently. .
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It's a variant of social engineering. Which is now, quite a formal discipline.edmundintokyo said:
They subliminally talk you into being born on a particular dateMalmesbury said:
I suggest reading some works on how it is done - it's as real as the stage magic trick of getting you to pick a card etc...edmundintokyo said:
Could be the old "ask them when their birthday is" trickSocky said:
Anecdote: My aunt worked with a woman who after five minutes chatting to someone, could predict their star sign with near 100% accuracy.0 -
Interesting that there's a divergence in the figures between "tolerant" and "cares about ordinary people". You'd think they'd be fairly similar.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour Party was set up after Blair won the Labour leadership in 1994 and Clause IV was repealed of causeRochdalePioneers said:Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.
So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.0 -
Why? One astrologer, one prediction, under controlled conditions. If it works, it'll be studied, and people will try and replicate the results and build on them. That's how science works.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think it is unrealistic to expect that an objective measure could ever be put into place and be widely accepted.Endillion said:
There's a difference between being measurable, and understanding the mechanism by which it works. Or put another way, we can investigate whether it works without needing to think about why it works.Luckyguy1983 said:
But they don't have to. As an example, look at the making of fermented foods like sauerkraut. Incredibly healthy, because they make nutrients more bioavailable, they introduce friendly bacteria into the gut, etc. ect. Our ancestors knew none of this. They were just preserving produce, and knew they felt well when they ate the result. This is 'wisdom' - doing something you don't necessarily understand the mechanics of, because you know it will result in a desirable outcome. I am not saying that applies to astrology, but I am saying we can subscribe to beliefs without knowing the science of how they work. Faith belongs in the same category. You are not rejecting science, you're just accepting of the fact that the science of something is not currently measurable.Malmesbury said:
Even practitioners of Astrology can't give a vaguely coherent reason why it should work.Luckyguy1983 said:
I have no idea what Gloop is. As for astrology, I am not a subscriber, but it is perfectly possible that the movement of celestial bodies has a greater impact on the lives of humans than is measurable currently. Or not. If you'd told the scientists of the 18th century that our bodies consisted largely of tiny living cells and organisms you would have attracted derision. It is foolish to believe that science will not reveal more mysteries in the future along similar lines.Malmesbury said:
Global warming is a matter of science and evidence.Luckyguy1983 said:
A rather odd view. Do you confine your life's philosophy to the works of a single writer (and presumably from only one time in their life, since writers often change their mind over time)?Malmesbury said:
I am always interested by people who think that science is part of buffet -kinabalu said:
Heard his comments. Shocked. Never liked the guy - unpleasant vibe to him - but had not realized he was an actual dumbo. Probably has to go now. Shame for him, of course, but I think the rest of us will cope. He doesn't do anything that Richard Madeley can't do ten times better.Scott_xP said:
"Hmmm.... I'll take a slice of Global Warming, a side of Gloop and for desert some Astrology"
Truth is many sided. If you think of it as a statue, not a traffic light, it is perfectly possible to have several different views and angles on the truth, which could even be vigorously opposed, but could be equally true.
Gloop and Astrology are anti-scientific, proven bullshit.
As for Gloop - Google it.
There's nothing stopping astrologers offering testable predictions which we could use to investigate whether they work. They have collectively failed to do so. If they ever manage to, we can then throw some resources into figuring out why all known laws of physics have stopped working.0 -
That implies the reasoning why labour did so well, or so bad is purely something which labour controls. It wasn't. The Tory offering in 2017 (being May, and her disaster of a campaign both policy wise and personally), masked many issues for labour.DecrepiterJohnL said:
That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.RochdalePioneers said:Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.
So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.
This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.
Also, Corbyn in 2017 wasn't Corbyn in 2019. The public were far more forgiving on him.
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It can be overdone, true, but people are sometimes pretty bad at self labelling so how they think of themselves is not accurate.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really a fan of retrofitting folk with descriptions post mortem; afaik Orwell described himself as a democratic socialist until his death.Andy_JS said:George Orwell was a left-wing libertarian. Are there any well-known and/or influential left-wing libertarians in the Labour Party today? I can't think of any.
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Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=210 -
The Tories are viewed as tolerant of ordinary people.Andy_JS said:
Interesting that there's a divergence in the figures between "tolerant" and "cares about ordinary people". You'd think they'd be fairly similar.Richard_Nabavi said:
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Hang on. This "report" alleges that the then HQ team actively conspired against the leader. And delivered +30 seats. The left didn't take over until 2019 when the result was -60.DecrepiterJohnL said:
That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.RochdalePioneers said:Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.
So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.
This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.
EDIT: In 2017 the professional Southside team worked to firstly defend Labour seats against the Tory threat where internal polls showed them taking seats like West Bromwich East. Then the agenda swung in a once-in-a-generation event as the Tories imploded their own campaign. We know that people were willing to vote Labour to stop Brexit. In 2019 the professionals had gone and instead Labour targeted all kinds of silly seats and chose to send activists into seats like Cities and Finchely to wreck the traitors.0 -
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Labour didn't do well in 2017. They lost. They didn't lose as badly as 2019 because no one then thought Corbyn was a threat, so many perhaps voted for Labour as a method of reducing the predicted TMay landslide. Corbyn was a disaster for Labour and a disaster for the country as his inept "leadership" enabled the election of one of the most right wing populist governments in recent history that has been able to pretend that it's victory was an endorsement of its Brexit strategy, when in reality it was a "Jeremy Corbyn-no-thanks" election.DecrepiterJohnL said:
That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.RochdalePioneers said:Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.
So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.
This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.0 -
Turnout?DecrepiterJohnL said:
That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.RochdalePioneers said:Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.
So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.
This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.0 -
Fundamentally, Labour have the same problem the Tories had last year. Both parties like to talk about being "big tent" but there are limits as to how far you can stretch that.
In the end, to unite the Tory party either the hardcore leavers or the hardcore remainers had to go to finally end the civil war on Europe (it ended up with the hardcore remainers leaving).
In the same way to unite Labour, either the hardcore Corbynites or the hardcore Blairites have to go. It initially looked like the Blairites would leave with the foundation of the TIGs. Now it looks like the Corbynites have to go.
That doesn't mean a purge and it doesn't mean everyone on the left has to leave but those who can't be reconciled to the direction of travel, will have to go (hopefully of their own volition). Bearing in mind a lot of them were previously in the Greens or Socialist Workers and tend to live in ultra-safe Labour seats, it wouldn't be a great loss.
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The chart is not particularly useful as it's impossible to see what the long-term damage is. Does the economy bounce back to where it was, or is it 5% smaller?rottenborough said:0 -
Perhaps the best summary of Orwell's views was that he viewed the 1945 Labour Government as very, very good, but not perfect.kle4 said:
It can be overdone, true, but people are sometimes pretty bad at self labelling so how they think of themselves is not accurate.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really a fan of retrofitting folk with descriptions post mortem; afaik Orwell described himself as a democratic socialist until his death.Andy_JS said:George Orwell was a left-wing libertarian. Are there any well-known and/or influential left-wing libertarians in the Labour Party today? I can't think of any.
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I think that quote was in a newspaper piece about the Home Guard.Socky said:
“That rifle on the wall of the labourer's cottage or working class flat is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.”kinabalu said:
There are if "libertarian" means strong on civil liberties and socially liberal. But if it means "small state", I would say very few if any. Indeed was Orwell a small stater? I wasn't aware that he was.Andy_JS said:George Orwell was a left-wing libertarian. Are there any well-known and/or influential left-wing libertarians in the Labour Party today? I can't think of any.
― George Orwell
'Even as it stands, the Home Guard could only exist in a country where men feel themselves free. The totalitarian states can do great things, but there is one thing they cannot do: they cannot give the factory-worker a rifle and tell him to take it home and keep it in his bedroom. That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage, is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.'
Context etc.0 -
Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.isam said:Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=21
A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.
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Not necessarily - there has been justified concern that stopping routine NHS operations/treatments will have an effect. Also, people are definitely not seeking out medical attention - possibly when it is required.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.isam said:Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=21
A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.
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Readers of Daniel Defoe will recognise this feature of the mortality statistics.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.isam said:Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=21
A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.0 -
Not at all - the purpose of an earlier lockdown (or other measures to stop the spread) would be purposefully to avoid the graph looking like that.MarqueeMark said:
If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...CatMan said:
Plot a similar graph for Taiwan, say, and it won't look like ours.1 -
tlg86 said:
The bounce looks bigger. There are some real opportunities ahead here, I think it’s best to stop looking at the hit, but at what comes next instead. Robert’s post yesterday about the danger of crony capitalism and shoring up current wealth was on the money, it’s a time to let the new lead us instead.LostPassword said:
The chart is not particularly useful as it's impossible to see what the long-term damage is. Does the economy bounce back to where it was, or is it 5% smaller?rottenborough said:0 -
Usual nationalist divisive lies. How long before Brexiteers try to excuse our terrible death rate compared to Germany by some similarly mendacious story about Germans/EU/foreigners?CarlottaVance said:Wonder if this will come up in Sturgeon's Press conference?
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1249991803207647232?s=200 -
I think the point about the limits of being big tent is something the parties need to take to heartGarethoftheVale2 said:Fundamentally, Labour have the same problem the Tories had last year. Both parties like to talk about being "big tent" but there are limits as to how far you can stretch that.
In the end, to unite the Tory party either the hardcore leavers or the hardcore remainers had to go to finally end the civil war on Europe (it ended up with the hardcore remainers leaving).
In the same way to unite Labour, either the hardcore Corbynites or the hardcore Blairites have to go. It initially looked like the Blairites would leave with the foundation of the TIGs. Now it looks like the Corbynites have to go.
That doesn't mean a purge and it doesn't mean everyone on the left has to leave but those who can't be reconciled to the direction of travel, will have to go (hopefully of their own volition). Bearing in mind a lot of them were previously in the Greens or Socialist Workers and tend to live in ultra-safe Labour seats, it wouldn't be a great loss.0 -
Pundits underplay, I think, the impact of the terrorist attacks during the 2017 election campaign, which underscored May's police cuts and not in a good way. Look at the Conservative platform last year to see where Boris and CCHQ think 2017 went wrong and what they think May did right, like ducking debates.Slackbladder said:
That implies the reasoning why labour did so well, or so bad is purely something which labour controls. It wasn't. The Tory offering in 2017 (being May, and her disaster of a campaign both policy wise and personally), masked many issues for labour.DecrepiterJohnL said:
That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.RochdalePioneers said:Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.
So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.
This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.
Also, Corbyn in 2017 wasn't Corbyn in 2019. The public were far more forgiving on him.
In 2019, below-the-radar social media campaigning by (or rather on behalf of) the Conservatives is also underestimated and unexplored, along with my own theory of Corbyn's glasses.0 -
In the quoted post above I state explicitly that I don't believe in it. Should we be surprised that a continuity remainer misses the blinking obvious?Nigel_Foremain said:
Why should I not be surprised that a supporter/believer of Brexit also believes in astrology. Probably believes in fairies, pixies and Father Christmas also. lol.Dura_Ace said:
Is it also perfectly possible that person best qualified to interpret this phenomenon is Russell fucking Grant?Luckyguy1983 said:As for astrology, I am not a subscriber, but it is perfectly possible that the movement of celestial bodies has a greater impact on the lives of humans than is measurable currently. .
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My guess would be that the uptick in deaths from other illnesses will be lagging by quite a bit - we'll probably see it in the data for the next few years at least, but it's unlikely to be discernible yet.Malmesbury said:
Not necessarily - there has been justified concern that stopping routine NHS operations/treatments will have an effect. Also, people are definitely not seeking out medical attention - possibly when it is required.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.isam said:Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=21
A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.
Reduction in road traffic deaths will be having an immediate impact, but in the other direction.0 -
Thankfully not since records began. It would be interesting to see a comparison with the numbers for 1918-1919.MarqueeMark said:
If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...CatMan said:0 -
I think the answer is the same for both elections - Brexit. In 17 it worked for Labour and in 19 against them. Run a GE with Corbyn Labour versus Generic Tory with no Brexit and I think they win 240 seats. So GE17 flatters them. But by the same token GE19 is too harsh a measure.DecrepiterJohnL said:That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.
This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.0 -
If Orwell was to be defined by all the groups who want to co-opt him postmortem for their cause, he'd need to be called an anarcho libertarian, antifascist, anticommunist, British nationalist, English nationalist, unionist, Eurosceptic, Europhiliac, liberal, conservative socialist (and that's just a few of them).kle4 said:
It can be overdone, true, but people are sometimes pretty bad at self labelling so how they think of themselves is not accurate.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really a fan of retrofitting folk with descriptions post mortem; afaik Orwell described himself as a democratic socialist until his death.Andy_JS said:George Orwell was a left-wing libertarian. Are there any well-known and/or influential left-wing libertarians in the Labour Party today? I can't think of any.
I think I'll stick with the simpler self description.0 -
RT deaths are negligible - 1770 a yearEndillion said:
My guess would be that the uptick in deaths from other illnesses will be lagging by quite a bit - we'll probably see it in the data for the next few years at least, but it's unlikely to be discernible yet.Malmesbury said:
Not necessarily - there has been justified concern that stopping routine NHS operations/treatments will have an effect. Also, people are definitely not seeking out medical attention - possibly when it is required.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.isam said:Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=21
A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.
Reduction in road traffic deaths will be having an immediate impact, but in the other direction.0 -
I wasnt making a point about Orwell specifically - I dont know enough about him to dispute his own labelling - just that retrofitted descriptions can potentially be reasonable particularly when politicians can be pretty shameless in claiming one position while embodying another.Theuniondivvie said:
If Orwell was to be defined by all the groups who want to co-opt him postmortem for their cause, he'd need to be called an anarcho, libertarian, antifascist, anticommunist, British nationalist, English nationalist, unionist, Eurosceptic, Europhiliac, liberal, conservative socialist (and that's just a few of them).kle4 said:
It can be overdone, true, but people are sometimes pretty bad at self labelling so how they think of themselves is not accurate.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really a fan of retrofitting folk with descriptions post mortem; afaik Orwell described himself as a democratic socialist until his death.Andy_JS said:George Orwell was a left-wing libertarian. Are there any well-known and/or influential left-wing libertarians in the Labour Party today? I can't think of any.
I think I'll stick with the simpler self description.0 -
I'm sure there will be some interesting papers soon on the cloud differences. We didn't have as good satellite observations when air traffic was last this low, so it makes for an interesting observational experiment.Cookie said:
Yes, granted. Though it doesn't feel that warm in South Manchester! It is however beautiful, clear and cloudless. I don't know how this compares to the last twenty years, but it feels remarkable.LostPassword said:
Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence, but, in the right meteorological conditions, planes can be responsible for a lot of cirrus cloud, which can make an otherwise cloudless day more than a little hazy.Cookie said:And the skies! The weather! I don't know to what extent this is linked to lack of aeroplanes (surely it can't be that simple?), but every time the planes are grounded (2001, 2010, 2020) seems to coincide with glorious, cloudless skies. I recognise there is a massive and unsustainable cost to this idyll, but it would be nice to preserve some aspects of it when and if normal life resumes.
Worth noting that this April is currently vying with the April of the Cambridge's Royal Wedding (2011) to be the warmest in the Central England Temperature record (since 1659) and air traffic was pretty normal in 2011.
So far this year the average Central England Temperature is so warm it is off the chart.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif
However it compares, your first seven words are still relevant!0 -
Trouble with that analysis is it does not explain the difference two years made, and blames Corbyn and not Corbynism. That might be correct but if so, the logical thing to have done was elect Rebecca Long-Bailey to succeed him. Indeed, Boris ran on large parts of Labour's 2017 platform so perhaps he agrees with you!Nigel_Foremain said:
Labour didn't do well in 2017. They lost. They didn't lose as badly as 2019 because no one then thought Corbyn was a threat, so many perhaps voted for Labour as a method of reducing the predicted TMay landslide. Corbyn was a disaster for Labour and a disaster for the country as his inept "leadership" enabled the election of one of the most right wing populist governments in recent history that has been able to pretend that it's victory was an endorsement of its Brexit strategy, when in reality it was a "Jeremy Corbyn-no-thanks" election.DecrepiterJohnL said:
That works except that in 2017 the left wing nutters did better than the right wing traitors had in 2015 or 2010. Maybe we should take another look at the audacity theory someone posted the other day.RochdalePioneers said:Fundamentally I am calling for the removal of left wing nutters. The left are calling for the removal of right wing traitors. Both groups want the party to split.
So lets split. The Leader and the right wing traitors can stay as the Labour Party and win elections. The true left socialists can be real Labour or whatever and lose whatever deposits they can crowdfund. Everyone wins.
This is what I find so depressing. No-one seems interested in explaining why Labour did so well in 2017 and so badly in 2019 under the same leader, except in terms of their own preferences and prejudices. The leisurely leadership election produced more of the same and so has this new leaked report. It was all the fault of the other lot; my side was perfect.0 -
Option 1 I think. Probably too early for lockdown to be leading to more deaths than usual. If anything I think other deaths might be down a bit.rottenborough said:0 -
Interesting, but not necessarily that helpful. 1918 was a much less connected world, and Spanish flu (as best as we can tell) was less infectious than Covid-19. Plus I'd guess that requirements for registering deaths promptly were less stringent?Chris said:
Thankfully not since records began. It would be interesting to see a comparison with the numbers for 1918-1919.MarqueeMark said:
If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...CatMan said:
All of which, coupled with difficulties in separating out deaths due to the War (direct and indirect) at the start of the epidemic means you'd probably see less of an obvious peak and more of a continuous pattern of deaths in excess of the baseline. Although that baseline would presumably have to be taken as pre-1914, for obvious reasons.0 -
The glasses were IMO not a trivial issue but were marginal. Cost maybe 5 seats.DecrepiterJohnL said:Pundits underplay, I think, the impact of the terrorist attacks during the 2017 election campaign, which underscored May's police cuts and not in a good way. Look at the Conservative platform last year to see where Boris and CCHQ think 2017 went wrong and what they think May did right, like ducking debates.
In 2019, below-the-radar social media campaigning by (or rather on behalf of) the Conservatives is also underestimated and unexplored, along with my own theory of Corbyn's glasses.0 -
On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy
Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.
KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame
Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.
These people are racist apologists.0 -
Dodds the first vaguely sensible Labour politician in some time.0
-
.
Option 2 is also significant. My daughter-in-law's father died of cancer in a Madrid hospital undergoing massive disruption due to CV19. Who's to say how much that disruption shortened his life?tlg86 said:
Option 1 I think. Probably too early for lockdown to be leading to more deaths than usual. If anything I think other deaths might be down a bit.rottenborough said:
0 -
-
-
No, absolutely not true. The conversation is the people DISCUSSING A CONSPIRACY THEORY about that. They absolutely did not say that is what they were doing.bigjohnowls said:
Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.
KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame
Their conversation has been edited for the consumption of Twitter to make it seem like they were doing it. If you had actually read the full exchange you would know that was not true.
Don't spread fake news.
1 -
Yet before the election you were telling us they were fit for government ....CorrectHorseBattery said:Dodds the first vaguely sensible Labour politician in some time.
Strange that0 -
The context here is whether Orwell would be comfortable in the modern Labour party. Can you imagine any of the major parties in the UK trusting normal people with a rifle?Theuniondivvie said:I think that [Orwell] quote was in a newspaper piece about the Home Guard.
'Even as it stands, the Home Guard could only exist in a country where men feel themselves free. The totalitarian states can do great things, but there is one thing they cannot do: they cannot give the factory-worker a rifle and tell him to take it home and keep it in his bedroom. That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage, is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.'
Context etc.
0 -
Phew!Theuniondivvie said:I think that quote was in a newspaper piece about the Home Guard.
'Even as it stands, the Home Guard could only exist in a country where men feel themselves free. The totalitarian states can do great things, but there is one thing they cannot do: they cannot give the factory-worker a rifle and tell him to take it home and keep it in his bedroom. That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage, is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.'
Context etc.
Unfortunately 1984 and 'Farm' have already gone up in flames here. Not too late for 'Pier' and 'Aspidistra' though.1 -
NOW you are bothered about anti semitism??bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy
Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.
KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame
Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.
These people are racist apologists.
Better late than never0 -
Can you expand? I am genuinely interested.Malmesbury said:I suggest reading some works on how [guessing star signs] is done - it's as real as the stage magic trick of getting you to pick a card etc...
FWIW I understand that the woman I referred to said she used personality types and hobbies.
0 -
The OBR forecasts just published make good reading for Sunak.
35% shrinkage in GDP in 2Q
2m extra unemployed.
and just the GBP218bn in extra debt this year.
That GBP218bn will hang like an albatross around this government neck. It will ensure they can do nothing for the rest of this parliament but try to steal money from conservative voters when they are not looking.
Well, its their call!
0 -
1918 was a very connected world thanks firstly to the Great War where infected recruits took the flu to the trenches, and then secondly to the end of the war and infected troops going home to countries all round the world.Endillion said:
Interesting, but not necessarily that helpful. 1918 was a much less connected world, and Spanish flu (as best as we can tell) was less infectious than Covid-19. Plus I'd guess that requirements for registering deaths promptly were less stringent?Chris said:
Thankfully not since records began. It would be interesting to see a comparison with the numbers for 1918-1919.MarqueeMark said:
If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...CatMan said:
All of which, coupled with difficulties in separating out deaths due to the War (direct and indirect) at the start of the epidemic means you'd probably see less of an obvious peak and more of a continuous pattern of deaths in excess of the baseline. Although that baseline would presumably have to be taken as pre-1914, for obvious reasons.0 -
I find that an appealing story - principled left-wing campaigner undermined by traitorous Blairites. I so want it to be true.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy
Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.
KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame
Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.
These people are racist apologists.
I can't reconcile it with all the other facts available, though. What of the interventions by Corbyn's office to stop expulsions of specific individuals, to give just one example?0 -
My mother-in-law was very upset when my father-in-law's death certificate had "smoking" on it. I don't suppose consistency is possible on this kind of thing.rottenborough said:0 -
Lockdown needs to end soon
Telegraph.
OBR: Britain faces biggest budget deficit since WW2
The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that borrowing could surge to £273bn this year, equivalent to 14pc of GDP – far outstripping the peak deficit of 10pc in the financial crisis.0 -
Socky said:
The context here is whether Orwell would be comfortable in the modern Labour party. Can you imagine any of the major parties in the UK trusting normal people with a rifle?Theuniondivvie said:I think that [Orwell] quote was in a newspaper piece about the Home Guard.
'Even as it stands, the Home Guard could only exist in a country where men feel themselves free. The totalitarian states can do great things, but there is one thing they cannot do: they cannot give the factory-worker a rifle and tell him to take it home and keep it in his bedroom. That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage, is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.'
Context etc.
Well, if only everyone was normal people.0 -
Yeah, alright. There are probably some other causes (industrial accidents?) that are also depressed right now, but it probably doesn't affect the overall picture.IshmaelZ said:
RT deaths are negligible - 1770 a yearEndillion said:
My guess would be that the uptick in deaths from other illnesses will be lagging by quite a bit - we'll probably see it in the data for the next few years at least, but it's unlikely to be discernible yet.Malmesbury said:
Not necessarily - there has been justified concern that stopping routine NHS operations/treatments will have an effect. Also, people are definitely not seeking out medical attention - possibly when it is required.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Those in care homes that are identified as COVID are already in the figures BUT I imagine that older people are less likely to be tested for or identified as having COVID at the date of their death and that will likely be the case for many care homes.isam said:Are the extra deaths above the average which are not Covid-19 those in care homes?
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1250009561462976512?s=21
A good chunk of the excess deaths must be COVID. The others are probably from the knock on impact.
Reduction in road traffic deaths will be having an immediate impact, but in the other direction.
What might matter is a meaningful reduction in the c. 400 pw serious injuries we see from road accidents - but that's a long term effect.0 -
If you're talking about meteorite or comet impacts, then you undoubtedly have a point.Luckyguy1983 said:As for astrology, I am not a subscriber, but it is perfectly possible that the movement of celestial bodies has a greater impact on the lives of humans than is measurable currently. .
Similarly, sunrise; sunset; the tides; seasons; solar storms...
Otherwise, not so much. (ie it's utter bollocks.)
1 -
I have read all 800 pages and they were not dealing with cases of AS with the speed they should have or using the expulsion from the Party of Anti Semites tool, if it could damage Corbyn, or the culprit was on the correct side of the party. The number one priority should have been to rid the party of proven Anti Semites the Party staff deliberately dragged heels.Alistair said:
No, absolutely not true. The conversation is the people DISCUSSING A CONSPIRACY THEORY about that. They absolutely did not say that is what they were doing.bigjohnowls said:
Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.
KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame
Their conversation has been edited for the consumption of Twitter to make it seem like they were doing it. If you had actually read the full exchange you would know that was not true.
Don't spread fake news.
Look at the number of expulsions under McNicholl compared to once he had gone.
You are trying to spin the report in a fake way Alistair0 -
If additional unemployment peaks at 2m Sunak will have done a very good job!contrarian said:The OBR forecasts just published make good reading for Sunak.
35% shrinkage in GDP in 2Q
2m extra unemployed.
and just the GBP218bn in extra debt this year.
That GBP218bn will hang like an albatross around this government neck. It will ensure they can do nothing for the rest of this parliament but try to steal money from conservative voters when they are not looking.
Well, its their call!0 -
Quote the actual Ken Livingston conversation then, the one that you says shows Tom Watson intervened to keep Ken around.bigjohnowls said:
I have read all 800 pages and they were not dealing with cases of AS with the speed they should have or using the expulsion from the Party of Anti Semites tool, if it could damage Corbyn, or the culprit was on the correct side of the party. The number one priority should have been to rid the party of proven Anti Semites the Party staff deliberately dragged heels.Alistair said:
No, absolutely not true. The conversation is the people DISCUSSING A CONSPIRACY THEORY about that. They absolutely did not say that is what they were doing.bigjohnowls said:
Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.
KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame
Their conversation has been edited for the consumption of Twitter to make it seem like they were doing it. If you had actually read the full exchange you would know that was not true.
Don't spread fake news.
Look at the number of expulsions under McNicholl compared to once he had gone.
You are trying to spin the report in a fake way Alistair
You won't because it doesn't say what you said it did.0 -
The under-reporting/recording of Covid deaths appears to be a worldwide phenomenon. Given the problems testing everyone, coupled with a significant number of false negatives, that's not exactly surprising.tlg86 said:
Option 1 I think. Probably too early for lockdown to be leading to more deaths than usual. If anything I think other deaths might be down a bit.rottenborough said:0 -
There are probably also personality differences depending on birth months because of our school year start dates, not sure that is what mystic meg is relying on though.Nigelb said:
If you're talking about meteorite or comet impacts, then you undoubtedly have a point.Luckyguy1983 said:As for astrology, I am not a subscriber, but it is perfectly possible that the movement of celestial bodies has a greater impact on the lives of humans than is measurable currently. .
Similarly, sunrise; sunset; the tides; seasons; solar storms...
Otherwise, not so much. (ie it's utter bollocks.)0 -
I wonder why cumulative is now the best way to show this, when last week plotting weekly deaths was fine?isam said:0 -
If furloughed counts as employed, surely that should be lower?noneoftheabove said:
If additional unemployment peaks at 2m Sunak will have done a very good job!contrarian said:The OBR forecasts just published make good reading for Sunak.
35% shrinkage in GDP in 2Q
2m extra unemployed.
and just the GBP218bn in extra debt this year.
That GBP218bn will hang like an albatross around this government neck. It will ensure they can do nothing for the rest of this parliament but try to steal money from conservative voters when they are not looking.
Well, its their call!0 -
Give me a single example of an intervention from Corbyns office to stop an expulsion . If the information came from HQ staffers its probably BS and the report gives you dozens of examples where McNicholls staff applied a light touch so that AS on the right werent punished at allLostPassword said:
I find that an appealing story - principled left-wing campaigner undermined by traitorous Blairites. I so want it to be true.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy
Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.
KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame
Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.
These people are racist apologists.
I can't reconcile it with all the other facts available, though. What of the interventions by Corbyn's office to stop expulsions of specific individuals, to give just one example?
I say to you look at the number of expulsions under this lot and contrast with Formbys tenure.0 -
Spanish flu infected 500 million peopleEndillion said:
Interesting, but not necessarily that helpful. 1918 was a much less connected world, and Spanish flu (as best as we can tell) was less infectious than Covid-19. Plus I'd guess that requirements for registering deaths promptly were less stringent?Chris said:
Thankfully not since records began. It would be interesting to see a comparison with the numbers for 1918-1919.MarqueeMark said:
If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...CatMan said:
All of which, coupled with difficulties in separating out deaths due to the War (direct and indirect) at the start of the epidemic means you'd probably see less of an obvious peak and more of a continuous pattern of deaths in excess of the baseline. Although that baseline would presumably have to be taken as pre-1914, for obvious reasons.0 -
The V shaped economic recovery looks wildly optimistic for the UK to me particularly if the health problem isn't fully (elimination or a vaccine neither of which look likely this year) sorted within the year.0
-
0 -
It's not like they've got many good choices, though.contrarian said:The OBR forecasts just published make good reading for Sunak.
35% shrinkage in GDP in 2Q
2m extra unemployed.
and just the GBP218bn in extra debt this year.
That GBP218bn will hang like an albatross around this government neck. It will ensure they can do nothing for the rest of this parliament but try to steal money from conservative voters when they are not looking.
Well, its their call!
We're in the middle of a natural catastrophe. It's a surreal one, because for the majority it is, at the moment, a cozy, comfortable, catastrophe - unless you're in the front line of the NHS or you have the disease right now.
If it would be more economically catastrophic to release the lockdown early (as per the considered opinions of the vast majority of economists), then it's not a choice of this or service as usual. It's between this and potentially worse alternatives.
But with the blue skies outside, all home comforts on tap, it's difficult to comprehend the magnitude of what's happening.2 -
Coronavirus probably up to about 20 million by now, if we assumed figures are underreported by a factor of ten.NerysHughes said:
Spanish flu infected 500 million peopleEndillion said:
Interesting, but not necessarily that helpful. 1918 was a much less connected world, and Spanish flu (as best as we can tell) was less infectious than Covid-19. Plus I'd guess that requirements for registering deaths promptly were less stringent?Chris said:
Thankfully not since records began. It would be interesting to see a comparison with the numbers for 1918-1919.MarqueeMark said:
If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...CatMan said:
All of which, coupled with difficulties in separating out deaths due to the War (direct and indirect) at the start of the epidemic means you'd probably see less of an obvious peak and more of a continuous pattern of deaths in excess of the baseline. Although that baseline would presumably have to be taken as pre-1914, for obvious reasons.0 -
The Corbynista gripes are fair if the report is accurate. As an outsider, floating voter who has been desperate for an opposition I could vote for, it just shows what a shambles Labour were. Most of us dont care who started it or why, what we need to see is no tolerance for racism and a competent, united party.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think you completely miss the point. There are lots of example of excusing AS if it was from one part of the party and deliberate dragging of heels on AS as a deliberate ploy
Labour staff were dragging their feet and deliberately not dealing with AS to make Corbyn get the blame.
KL for example a very clear whatsapp exchange shows Corbyn wanted him expelled Watson got NEC to extend his suspension instead so Corbyn got the blame
Read the while thing it is clear fighting AS was not a priority unfortunately.
These people are racist apologists.
0 -
I was watching a documentary about the Spanish Armada the other day.BannedinnParis said:
Never in the field of human conflict has so much been owed by so many to so few...Malmesbury said:
The story related in the book Piece of Cake, about an RAF fighter squadron being denied spares at the start of the Battle of Britain, was based on true story.another_richard said:
Thanks for the complimentAlastairMeeks said:
That's Emilie Oldknow level of quoting.another_richard said:
Why not, you know it is.AlastairMeeks said:
You think that's a citation for what you claimed?another_richard said:
I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".AlastairMeeks said:
Go looking. You won’t find a citation for what you claimed.another_richard said:
Yet you know its true.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m afraid a citation is needed for that claim.another_richard said:
AM believed that there were no strawberries in the supermarkets in the summer of 2018.Chelyabinsk said:
An alternative explanation is that Britain actually has a comparatively strong capacity to manufacture PPE and ventilators, and the 'EU procurement scheme' was a means of allowing smaller countries who lacked this capacity to share in its fruits. It would explain why the EU was so keen to allow Britain to join the scheme, despite their previous inflexible stances on cherry-picking aspects of EU membership, and why the government has provided so many contradictory reasons as to why it chose not to. If this proves to be true, no doubt Alistair will switch from blaming the government for letting British subjects die due to Europhobic dogma to blaming the government for letting EU subjects die due to Europhobic dogma.TGOHF666 said:
It is an entirely sensible strategy to use Uk based resources to kick start new sources of PPE, tests, ventilators etc.AlastairMeeks said:
Ah, the deranged paranoia of the true Europhobe. When that’s all you’ve got left, the padded cell awaits you.MarqueeMark said:
More a complete lack of belief that any product would actually have come the UK's way. The only evidence I have seen so far is of countries looking after their own. Where you see hatred, others might see cynicism, maybe realism - that the EU would say "They've left - fuck 'em. Give the kit to our people."AlastairMeeks said:
Not at all. Anyone responsible for this decision needs to face the consequences of it.MarqueeMark said:
You'd be the one squealing loudest of all when it was civil servants who get prosecuted...AlastairMeeks said:
If, as looks highly likely, less PPE is available in Britain in a couple of weeks’ time than would have been the case if the government had not refused to join this scheme because of Europhobic dogma, it is almost certain that people will die as a result. The people responsible for that decision should be prosecuted.Socky said:
How would this have caused more PPE to be manufactured?AlastairMeeks said:There will be a time when manslaughter charges will need to be considered in relation to the relevant government ministers for this failure:
https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/1249950265308000257?s=21
Not noticing too many Leavers speaking up for the need to secure whatever PPE Britain can by whatever means it can. Here’s your opportunity.
But perhaps the visceral hatred of the EU extends to the point of refusing PPE from it even if it would save lives.
a) Smaller logistics chains.
b) Lower risk from transportation "issues"
c) Higher level of oversight
d) Patriotic boost to productivity.
e) Complete control over supply once established.
A far better use of resources in the long battle ahead than getting a small slice of a one off delivery from China via the EU.
He has a long standing derangement on this subject.
(Spoiler: you won’t find it.)
There was a reason I gave a daily Tesco strawberry score in 2018.
It’s not my fault if you misread what I actually wrote.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/05/31/__trashed-4/#vanilla-comments
The responses you get are amusing.
I fear you have become the mirror image of the ideologues you condemn - whereas they might oppose any connections with the EU you oppose anything they do and so support joining any EU scheme.
Whereas to my mind the sensible strategy is one of help and co-operation where possible but detachment if necessary.
I would also somewhat doubt whether there are that many ideologues in government and whether they have much effect on the great inertial mass of statist bureaucracy in any case.
But my last point is something which I am concerned about - how much is bureaucratic inertia damaging action.
I suspect it has played a part re PPE, testing, border control and perhaps also for new ventilator suppliers.
They didn't have the paperwork to request spares, because the'd lost that in France. Along with the paperwork to get more paperwork.
"He must be talking about our back-pay, then."
They mentioned that after the Armada the government didn't pay the navy's wages. When the sailors complained they were dying of starvation, Cecil (I think) said that "at least if they starve to death we won't have to pay them"... by the end of 1588 about half of them were dead of sickness or hunger.0 -
-
.
The agenda he seems to be pushing is that these people would have all died anyway. Well, we've just run out of those people and they are still dying, and the statistics are a week out of date already.bigjohnowls said:0 -
But Trump is in total control and has total authority right?Nigelb said:0 -
It wouldn't say it's an agenda.RobD said:.
The agenda he seems to be pushing is that these people would have all died anyway. Well, we've just run out of those people and they are still dying, and the statistics are a week out of date already.bigjohnowls said:0 -
I dont think so. Furlough is very helpful but isnt going to stop lots of companies going bust and others downsizing. If you are in hospitality or travel for example the picture will remain bleak for 2020 and maybe 2021 not just a couple of months.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If furloughed counts as employed, surely that should be lower?noneoftheabove said:
If additional unemployment peaks at 2m Sunak will have done a very good job!contrarian said:The OBR forecasts just published make good reading for Sunak.
35% shrinkage in GDP in 2Q
2m extra unemployed.
and just the GBP218bn in extra debt this year.
That GBP218bn will hang like an albatross around this government neck. It will ensure they can do nothing for the rest of this parliament but try to steal money from conservative voters when they are not looking.
Well, its their call!0 -
The 45-64 uptick demonstrates just how different this is from the seasonal flu...
https://twitter.com/DanBebber/status/12499906193652817930 -
I mentioned the Armada down thread.Charles said:
I was watching a documentary about the Spanish Armada the other day.BannedinnParis said:
Never in the field of human conflict has so much been owed by so many to so few...Malmesbury said:
The story related in the book Piece of Cake, about an RAF fighter squadron being denied spares at the start of the Battle of Britain, was based on true story.another_richard said:
Thanks for the complimentAlastairMeeks said:
That's Emilie Oldknow level of quoting.another_richard said:
Why not, you know it is.AlastairMeeks said:
You think that's a citation for what you claimed?another_richard said:
I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".AlastairMeeks said:
Go looking. You won’t find a citation for what you claimed.another_richard said:
Yet you know its true.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m afraid a citation is needed for that claim.another_richard said:
AM believed that there were no strawberries in the supermarkets in the summer of 2018.Chelyabinsk said:
An alternative explanation is that Britain actually has a comparatively strong capacity to manufacture PPE and ventilators, and the 'EU procurement scheme' was a means of allowing smaller countries who lacked this capacity to share in its fruits. It would explain why the EU was so keen to allow Britain to join the scheme, despite their previous inflexible stances on cherry-picking aspects of EU membership, and why the government has provided so many contradictory reasons as to why it chose not to. If this proves to be true, no doubt Alistair will switch from blaming the government for letting British subjects die due to Europhobic dogma to blaming the government for letting EU subjects die due to Europhobic dogma.TGOHF666 said:
It is an entirely sensible strategy to use Uk based resources to kick start new sources of PPE, tests, ventilators etc.AlastairMeeks said:
Ah, the deranged paranoia of the true Europhobe. When that’s all you’ve got left, the padded cell awaits you.MarqueeMark said:
More a complete lack of belief that any product would actually have come the UK's way. The only evidence I have seen so far is of countries looking after their own. Where you see hatred, others might see cynicism, maybe realism - that the EU would say "They've left - fuck 'em. Give the kit to our people."AlastairMeeks said:
Not at all. Anyone responsible for this decision needs to face the consequences of it.MarqueeMark said:
You'd be the one squealing loudest of all when it was civil servants who get prosecuted...AlastairMeeks said:
If, as looks highly likely, less PPE is available in Britain in a couple of weeks’ time than would have been the case if the government had not refused to join this scheme because of Europhobic dogma, it is almost certain that people will die as a result. The people responsible for that decision should be prosecuted.Socky said:
How would this have caused more PPE to be manufactured?AlastairMeeks said:There will be a time when manslaughter charges will need to be considered in relation to the relevant government ministers for this failure:
https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/1249950265308000257?s=21
Not noticing too many Leavers speaking up for the need to secure whatever PPE Britain can by whatever means it can. Here’s your opportunity.
But perhaps the visceral hatred of the EU extends to the point of refusing PPE from it even if it would save lives.
a) Smaller logistics chains.
b) Lower risk from transportation "issues"
c) Higher level of oversight
d) Patriotic boost to productivity.
e) Complete control over supply once established.
A far better use of resources in the long battle ahead than getting a small slice of a one off delivery from China via the EU.
He has a long standing derangement on this subject.
(Spoiler: you won’t find it.)
There was a reason I gave a daily Tesco strawberry score in 2018.
It’s not my fault if you misread what I actually wrote.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/05/31/__trashed-4/#vanilla-comments
The responses you get are amusing.
I fear you have become the mirror image of the ideologues you condemn - whereas they might oppose any connections with the EU you oppose anything they do and so support joining any EU scheme.
Whereas to my mind the sensible strategy is one of help and co-operation where possible but detachment if necessary.
I would also somewhat doubt whether there are that many ideologues in government and whether they have much effect on the great inertial mass of statist bureaucracy in any case.
But my last point is something which I am concerned about - how much is bureaucratic inertia damaging action.
I suspect it has played a part re PPE, testing, border control and perhaps also for new ventilator suppliers.
They didn't have the paperwork to request spares, because the'd lost that in France. Along with the paperwork to get more paperwork.
"He must be talking about our back-pay, then."
They mentioned that after the Armada the government didn't pay the navy's wages. When the sailors complained they were dying of starvation, Cecil (I think) said that "at least if they starve to death we won't have to pay them"... by the end of 1588 about half of them were dead of sickness or hunger.
A naval chap I met told me that there were documents in the Admiralty archives complaining about Admiral Nelson. Apparently the expenditure of ammunition by ships under his command was something shocking. Not to mention repair bills.1 -
If it’s a lie it needs to be nailed promptly. If it’s not and it’s some attempt at national coordination it looks like a communications cock up.Nigel_Foremain said:
Usual nationalist divisive lies. How long before Brexiteers try to excuse our terrible death rate compared to Germany by some similarly mendacious story about Germans/EU/foreigners?CarlottaVance said:Wonder if this will come up in Sturgeon's Press conference?
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1249991803207647232?s=200 -
I suspect the Somme was worse. But would that be UK mortality or French mortality?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As the ONS pointed out on Twitter, they have records back to the early 1800s... so perhaps not 2005 as regularly claimed.MarqueeMark said:
If it didn't look like that, you really would be asking about the need for the lockdown...CatMan said:0 -
'Absolute', I believe is the precise description of his authoritative control...rottenborough said:
But Trump is in total control and has total authority right?Nigelb said:0 -
What would you call it? The argument has been (and you can see it in the tweet) is that these are a "pools of people" who would die when the next virus comes along.Andy_JS said:
It wouldn't say it's an agenda.RobD said:.
The agenda he seems to be pushing is that these people would have all died anyway. Well, we've just run out of those people and they are still dying, and the statistics are a week out of date already.bigjohnowls said:0 -
Jason Leitch is probably a unionist southern jessie.CarlottaVance said:
If it’s a lie it needs to be nailed promptly. If it’s not and it’s some attempt at national coordination it looks like a communications cock up.Nigel_Foremain said:
Usual nationalist divisive lies. How long before Brexiteers try to excuse our terrible death rate compared to Germany by some similarly mendacious story about Germans/EU/foreigners?CarlottaVance said:Wonder if this will come up in Sturgeon's Press conference?
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1249991803207647232?s=20
Am I doing this right?1 -
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https://twitter.com/elena_gualtieri/status/1250001307957633025?s=19Nigelb said:The 45-64 uptick demonstrates just how different this is from the seasonal flu...
https://twitter.com/DanBebber/status/1249990619365281793
https://twitter.com/DanBebber/status/1250002748155846656?s=190
