politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we start the Easter Weekend welcome to tonight’s PB Nightha
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we start the Easter Weekend welcome to tonight’s PB Nighthawks Cafe
Normally the Thursday afternoon and evening before Good Friday is just about the busiest it gets on the roads during the year. Huge traffic jams build up on the roads and it can be mighty frustrating. Well today has been different. Everything is so different this year.
Comments
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First 'cos the roads are clear.1
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Is it particularly busy around this holiday normally compared to others? I had no idea. It's all the rich buggers on here going on holiday all the time.0
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Hopefully this dumb ass nonsense won’t reach England.
https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1248354250209611783?s=212 -
An impressive Horizon programme on BBC2 has just finished. An hour of Covid-19 that was both informative and digestible. Even an Oxford PPE graduate could follow it. Well done.2
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It'll be more than that in a week or so.Andy_JS said:"Dr. Anthony Fauci: Virus death toll may be ‘more like 60,000 than 100,000 to 200,000’"
https://www.today.com/video/dr-anthony-fauci-virus-death-toll-may-be-more-like-60-000-than-100-00-to-200-000-81825861735
This could mean the UK figure will be around 12,000, since our population is 5 times less than the USA.
Remember that the redition in the US estimates, assuming reasonableness, were taking account of latest measures. Our pretty optimistic prediction of 20000 was already supposed to be if we did very well.0 -
There's only man who might understand what that's saying - Donald Trump.Theuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=200 -
This is worth pulling out from that report:TGOHF666 said:Hopefully this dumb ass nonsense won’t reach England.
https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1248354250209611783?s=21
"Those on below-average incomes have been hit hardest, with those in the bottom income group increasing their expenditure on alcohol by 11 per cent."
An awful policy that has managed to make the lives of the miserable even worse.
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There is square root of f##k all chance we are getting away with 12,000. I don't think we are keeping it below 20,000 either (especially if we include all the care home deaths).Andy_JS said:"Dr. Anthony Fauci: Virus death toll may be ‘more like 60,000 than 100,000 to 200,000’"
https://www.today.com/video/dr-anthony-fauci-virus-death-toll-may-be-more-like-60-000-than-100-00-to-200-000-81825861735
This could mean the UK figure will be around 12,000, since our population is 5 times less than the USA.0 -
Why the hell are the US still doing in person daily press conferences? Have they never heard of Microsoft Teams?1
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On Robert Jenrick: I popped round with my partner to see mum yesterday. We sat in her back garden two metres apart from her. She was jittery that she was breaking the law even though it had been our decision and we were on her property appropriately socially distanced throughout. She appreciated the company.
If a son goes round his parents to see they’re ok, that’s more than ok by me. This period is bad enough without busybodies making it worse.7 -
Alcoholics will give up food before they give up drink.kyf_100 said:
This is worth pulling out from that report:TGOHF666 said:Hopefully this dumb ass nonsense won’t reach England.
https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1248354250209611783?s=21
"Those on below-average incomes have been hit hardest, with those in the bottom income group increasing their expenditure on alcohol by 11 per cent."
An awful policy that has managed to make the lives of the miserable even worse.0 -
It's a relief that normal service has resumed. Lilico said a few dangerously rational things recently.Theuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=200 -
Not all people on low income are alcoholics.glw said:
Alcoholics will give up food before they give up drink.kyf_100 said:
This is worth pulling out from that report:TGOHF666 said:Hopefully this dumb ass nonsense won’t reach England.
https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1248354250209611783?s=21
"Those on below-average incomes have been hit hardest, with those in the bottom income group increasing their expenditure on alcohol by 11 per cent."
An awful policy that has managed to make the lives of the miserable even worse.0 -
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Was the Guardian after a gotcha moment I wonder?Scott_xP said:1 -
Well, at least all the supporters of Jenrick stuck up for Stephen Kinnock the other week, or where would we be?AlastairMeeks said:On Robert Jenrick: I popped round with my partner to see mum yesterday. We sat in her back garden two metres apart from her. She was jittery that she was breaking the law even though it had been our decision and we were on her property appropriately socially distanced throughout. She appreciated the company.
If a son goes round his parents to see they’re ok, that’s more than ok by me. This period is bad enough without busybodies making it worse.3 -
Now about the press being absolute dicks in this crisis....Scott_xP said:twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1248360110835011584
If he had been caught going on a 300 mile round trip jolly to the lake district, wells that's totally a different matter. Instead, clearly some curtain twitcher has dobbed him into the Guardian and they decided to run it regardless.1 -
If you can, I feel Andrew is low risk.Theuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=200 -
The Guardian is turning into a nasty tabloid for Jew haters.1
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To pedantise* on something I know you know full well, the square root of a near-zero positive number is ... a slightly larger positive number...FrancisUrquhart said:
There is square root of f##k all chance we are getting away with 12,000. I don't think we are keeping it below 20,000 either (especially if we include all the care home deaths).Andy_JS said:"Dr. Anthony Fauci: Virus death toll may be ‘more like 60,000 than 100,000 to 200,000’"
https://www.today.com/video/dr-anthony-fauci-virus-death-toll-may-be-more-like-60-000-than-100-00-to-200-000-81825861735
This could mean the UK figure will be around 12,000, since our population is 5 times less than the USA.
We should probably say something like "the cube of naff-all" but it doesn't sound as good!
Don't think your numerical prediction is going to be proven wrong though.
* Astonishingly (to me) this word is in the dictionary, which has pretty much made my day. It's been that kind of day.2 -
He's apparently "facing questions" according to the Guardian.FrancisUrquhart said:
Now about the press being absolute dicks in this crisis....Scott_xP said:twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1248360110835011584
If he had been caught going on a 300 mile round trip jolly to the lake district, wells that's totally a different matter.
What, for being a compassionate human and helping out his mum and dad who needed shopping and medication? Quite right, that kind of person doesn't belong in the Tory party.0 -
We'll almost certainly be above 12,000 by the middle of next week once everything is counted, and even after the first wave subsides, it will be a long road back to normality, with a lot of infection just deferred.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is square root of f##k all chance we are getting away with 12,000. I don't think we are keeping it below 20,000 either (especially if we include all the care home deaths).Andy_JS said:"Dr. Anthony Fauci: Virus death toll may be ‘more like 60,000 than 100,000 to 200,000’"
https://www.today.com/video/dr-anthony-fauci-virus-death-toll-may-be-more-like-60-000-than-100-00-to-200-000-81825861735
This could mean the UK figure will be around 12,000, since our population is 5 times less than the USA.0 -
The reaction to that was way OTT. Slightly less sympathetic reasons, but the reaction was the equivalent of the idiot plod complaining too many people buying non-essentials in the supermarket.Foxy said:
Well, at least all the supporters of Jenrick stuck up for Stephen Kinnock the other week, or where would we be?AlastairMeeks said:On Robert Jenrick: I popped round with my partner to see mum yesterday. We sat in her back garden two metres apart from her. She was jittery that she was breaking the law even though it had been our decision and we were on her property appropriately socially distanced throughout. She appreciated the company.
If a son goes round his parents to see they’re ok, that’s more than ok by me. This period is bad enough without busybodies making it worse.1 -
Of course not, but if you are trying to get people who have a drink problem to drink less pricing is a blunt tool, and the people with the biggest problem will be the most disposed to prioritising buying alcohol.TGOHF666 said:
Not all people on low income are alcoholics.glw said:
Alcoholics will give up food before they give up drink.kyf_100 said:
This is worth pulling out from that report:TGOHF666 said:Hopefully this dumb ass nonsense won’t reach England.
https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1248354250209611783?s=21
"Those on below-average incomes have been hit hardest, with those in the bottom income group increasing their expenditure on alcohol by 11 per cent."
An awful policy that has managed to make the lives of the miserable even worse.0 -
Why Jenrick ?
Jenrick is a member of the Parliamentary Conservative Friends of Israel (CFI) group.[13][14] In June 2019, he represented the government at the Israel-Palestine peace initiative, led by Jared Kushner.[15] In January 2020, Jenrick spoke at the CFI parliamentary reception and told the audience that he would "look forward to the day" when Britain's embassy in Israel will be "moved to Jerusalem", adding that "as Housing Secretary I don't like land-banking. I want us to build that embassy".1 -
Compassionate Conservatives don't exist though...they are to a man and woman all evil baby eaters.RobD said:
He's apparently "facing questions" according to the Guardian.FrancisUrquhart said:
Now about the press being absolute dicks in this crisis....Scott_xP said:twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1248360110835011584
If he had been caught going on a 300 mile round trip jolly to the lake district, wells that's totally a different matter.
What, for being a compassionate human and helping out his mum and dad who needed shopping and medication? Quite right, that kind of person doesn't belong in the Tory party.1 -
He seems to think EU membership can lead to communism or an Islamic Caliphate. It's a thought, I suppose. An alt-right one you'd probably hear from Molyneux or that Prison Planet wanker. Was Lilico ever taken seriously?eadric said:
Indeed. I read that tweet half a dozen times and couldn’t make sense of it. Still can’tTheuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=200 -
Compassionate Conservatives kill the babies first.FrancisUrquhart said:
Compassionate Conservatives don't exist though...they are to a man and woman all evil baby eaters.RobD said:
He's apparently "facing questions" according to the Guardian.FrancisUrquhart said:
Now about the press being absolute dicks in this crisis....Scott_xP said:twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1248360110835011584
If he had been caught going on a 300 mile round trip jolly to the lake district, wells that's totally a different matter.
What, for being a compassionate human and helping out his mum and dad who needed shopping and medication? Quite right, that kind of person doesn't belong in the Tory party.0 -
That is very clever messagingrottenborough said:0 -
Oh, I agree. But who can fight the British mob with its blood up?FrancisUrquhart said:
The reaction to that was way OTT. Slightly less sympathetic reasons, but the reaction was the equivalent of the idiot plod complaining too many people buying non-essentials in the supermarket.Foxy said:
Well, at least all the supporters of Jenrick stuck up for Stephen Kinnock the other week, or where would we be?AlastairMeeks said:On Robert Jenrick: I popped round with my partner to see mum yesterday. We sat in her back garden two metres apart from her. She was jittery that she was breaking the law even though it had been our decision and we were on her property appropriately socially distanced throughout. She appreciated the company.
If a son goes round his parents to see they’re ok, that’s more than ok by me. This period is bad enough without busybodies making it worse.
It is a displacement activity for people who feel powerless in the face of nature.0 -
Yep we did. Exactly the same people who were on here defending Jenrick today were defending Kinnock earlier in the week. Same issue, same position. Both were absolutely in the right and should not be criticised.Foxy said:
Well, at least all the supporters of Jenrick stuck up for Stephen Kinnock the other week, or where would we be?AlastairMeeks said:On Robert Jenrick: I popped round with my partner to see mum yesterday. We sat in her back garden two metres apart from her. She was jittery that she was breaking the law even though it had been our decision and we were on her property appropriately socially distanced throughout. She appreciated the company.
If a son goes round his parents to see they’re ok, that’s more than ok by me. This period is bad enough without busybodies making it worse.4 -
Not really surprising, the Daily Rant have been really going for the government the past couple of weeks.williamglenn said:0 -
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The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
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I haven't criticised them.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep we did. Exactly the same people who were on here defending Jenrick today were defending Kinnock earlier in the week. Same issue, same position. Both were absolutely in the right and should not be criticised.Foxy said:
Well, at least all the supporters of Jenrick stuck up for Stephen Kinnock the other week, or where would we be?AlastairMeeks said:On Robert Jenrick: I popped round with my partner to see mum yesterday. We sat in her back garden two metres apart from her. She was jittery that she was breaking the law even though it had been our decision and we were on her property appropriately socially distanced throughout. She appreciated the company.
If a son goes round his parents to see they’re ok, that’s more than ok by me. This period is bad enough without busybodies making it worse.0 -
Not quite as bad as them blaming chief egghead for catching the disease. Its one thing blaming Boris for getting it and nearly dying, we will glide past that, but they also blamed the chief egghead as if he has a choice about the environments in which he is having to work, trying to do his best to make the right decisions to save lives.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
I mean he definitely should have done better not to catch this thing that literally can spread so easily you need to be in a spacesuit 24/7 to be safe.0 -
They want the lockdown stopped and are just plain stupidFrancisUrquhart said:
Not really surprising, the Daily Rant have been really going for the government the past couple of weeks.williamglenn said:0 -
I bet Boris is chomping at the bit to get out of hospital...0
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40 miles according to the Guardian; 150 according to the Mail.williamglenn said:
Either way, he seems to have had a valid reason for the visit, so I expect this to die away in a day or two.0 -
Time for the government to deploy the Van-Tam again. He doesn't take no shit from the press.1
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At least now the top team are immuneFrancisUrquhart said:
Not quite as bad as them blaming chief egghead for catching the disease. Its one thing blaming Boris for getting it and nearly dying, we will glide past that, but they also blamed the chief egghead as if he has a choice about the environments in which he is having to work, trying to do his best to make the right decisions to save lives.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
I mean he definitely should have done better not to catch this thing that literally can spread so easily you need to be in a spacesuit 24/7 to be safe.
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My bigger concern is especially coming up to this Easter holiday weekend, it muddies the message and potentially encourages people to say well if the government minister can do this, I will go on a jolly and round it off with a call into the fam, cos that will be ok cover if I need to have an excuse.Benpointer said:
40 miles according to the Guardian; 150 according to the Mail.williamglenn said:
Either way, he seems to have had a valid reason for the visit, so I expect this to die away in a day or two.
Just like the press love to ask the politicians how many people have you killed today minister with that decision...how many people have you killed today members of the press?0 -
Going to have to catch up on Horizon, missed half of it.
It was clear and free from breathless hype.0 -
The research, conducted by King's College London and pollsters Ipsos Mori, finds 15% of the population already say they are finding the restrictions very challenging and another 14% expect they will be unable to cope within the next month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52228169
Imagine if the government had locked us down when the media demanded it? Its like these behavioural insight people might know something.2 -
This might cheer you up ... had a conversation today with one of the modelling eggheads who contributes to the PHE forecasting that goes up the chain of command to the chief eggheads (and I think is the set of figures that goes out to the individual hospitals) and turns out his team are using Bayesian model stacking ensembles to improve their predictive accuracy. Not just relying on the over-a-decade-old undocumented C code of the Imperial crew...FrancisUrquhart said:
Not quite as bad as them blaming chief egghead for catching the disease. Its one thing blaming Boris for getting it and nearly dying, we will glide past that, but they also blamed the chief egghead as if he has a choice about the environments in which he is having to work, trying to do his best to make the right decisions to save lives.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
I mean he definitely should have done better not to catch this thing that literally can spread so easily you need to be in a spacesuit 24/7 to be safe.2 -
I read the first two lines of the article and assumed you were talking about the normal weekly excitement about local by-elections0
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This. 100x this.FrancisUrquhart said:The research, conducted by King's College London and pollsters Ipsos Mori, finds 15% of the population already say they are finding the restrictions very challenging and another 14% expect they will be unable to cope within the next month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52228169
Imagine if the government had locked us down when the media demanded it? Its like these behavioural insight people might know something.0 -
It wasn't best practice given locals were able to assist his relatives, but given he never entered the house and dropped off some medication I can't say I think of this as a hanging offence or frontpage news.williamglenn said:0 -
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Yeap. There is a load of really interesting work getting under way, with inputs from multiple fields who traditionally don't often talk to one another very much.MyBurningEars said:
This might cheer you up ... had a conversation today with one of the modelling eggheads who contributes to the PHE forecasting that goes up the chain of command to the chief eggheads (and I think is the set of figures that goes out to the individual hospitals) and turns out his team are using Bayesian model stacking ensembles to improve their predictive accuracy. Not just relying on the over-a-decade-old undocumented C code of the Imperial crew...FrancisUrquhart said:
Not quite as bad as them blaming chief egghead for catching the disease. Its one thing blaming Boris for getting it and nearly dying, we will glide past that, but they also blamed the chief egghead as if he has a choice about the environments in which he is having to work, trying to do his best to make the right decisions to save lives.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
I mean he definitely should have done better not to catch this thing that literally can spread so easily you need to be in a spacesuit 24/7 to be safe.
Having done quite a bit of reading of what people traditionally use, I was shocked that things like "Gaussian Processes" never seem to feature. They are ideal for analysing the progression of current case / death data.
Realistically until there is a vaccine, we need much more advanced models to be able to move out of the lockdown phase.0 -
"US President Donald Trump will soon take to the podium for his daily update on Covid-19.
The White House announced today that everyone in the room for the daily briefing will be given a rapid Covid-19 test, with results expected before the start of the briefing." BBC
What's this rapid Covid-19 test and why don't we have it in the UK?0 -
He's gone barking.eadric said:
Indeed. I read that tweet half a dozen times and couldn’t make sense of it. Still can’tTheuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=200 -
But but.. we were told EVIDENCE.TGOHF666 said:Hopefully this dumb ass nonsense won’t reach England.
https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1248354250209611783?s=210 -
I'm not sure I follow that logic.FrancisUrquhart said:The research, conducted by King's College London and pollsters Ipsos Mori, finds 15% of the population already say they are finding the restrictions very challenging and another 14% expect they will be unable to cope within the next month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52228169
Imagine if the government had locked us down when the media demanded it? Its like these behavioural insight people might know something.
We'll be in exactly the same position after the delayed lockdown, it will take just as long and more people will have died.0 -
Warning to the ‘perfectly fit and healthy’ people who are 3-4 stone overweight
https://twitter.com/alistairhaimes/status/1248353767684276224?s=210 -
I agree with you, but that won't stop the busybodies.AlastairMeeks said:On Robert Jenrick: I popped round with my partner to see mum yesterday. We sat in her back garden two metres apart from her. She was jittery that she was breaking the law even though it had been our decision and we were on her property appropriately socially distanced throughout. She appreciated the company.
If a son goes round his parents to see they’re ok, that’s more than ok by me. This period is bad enough without busybodies making it worse.
This is the moment they've been secretly waiting for all their lives.2 -
I know. I was making the point that your claims about people only defending their own side were wide of the mark. Most people on PB with some dishonourable exceptions are sticking to their own personal positions on what is right and wrong irrespective of party allegiance. As I said those who defended Jenrick tonight are the same ones who were defending Kinnock a few days ago.Foxy said:
I haven't criticised them.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep we did. Exactly the same people who were on here defending Jenrick today were defending Kinnock earlier in the week. Same issue, same position. Both were absolutely in the right and should not be criticised.Foxy said:
Well, at least all the supporters of Jenrick stuck up for Stephen Kinnock the other week, or where would we be?AlastairMeeks said:On Robert Jenrick: I popped round with my partner to see mum yesterday. We sat in her back garden two metres apart from her. She was jittery that she was breaking the law even though it had been our decision and we were on her property appropriately socially distanced throughout. She appreciated the company.
If a son goes round his parents to see they’re ok, that’s more than ok by me. This period is bad enough without busybodies making it worse.0 -
The one on BBC4 last night was excellent.dr_spyn said:Going to have to catch up on Horizon, missed half of it.
It was clear and free from breathless hype.0 -
Or Prince Charles.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:0 -
Where there was a lack of evidence there was virtue aplenty to fill the void,Casino_Royale said:
But but.. we were told EVIDENCE.TGOHF666 said:Hopefully this dumb ass nonsense won’t reach England.
https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1248354250209611783?s=210 -
I can't remember who it was on here before (Sean Fear?) that there is more than one Andrew Lilico. There are several Andrew Lilicos.williamglenn said:
It's a relief that normal service has resumed. Lilico said a few dangerously rational things recently.Theuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=20
Once you think of it like that it all starts to make sense.0 -
As I understand it, the impetus for these ML-inspired approaches in infectious disease modelling has come from Kaggle-style epidemic forecasting competitions over the last couple of years. There's a slightly morbid quality to that - got to be an unpleasantly mixed feeling when you lose because the deaths today weren't high enough...FrancisUrquhart said:
Yeap. There is a load of really interesting work getting under way, with inputs from multiple fields who traditionally don't often talk to one another very much.MyBurningEars said:
This might cheer you up ... had a conversation today with one of the modelling eggheads who contributes to the PHE forecasting that goes up the chain of command to the chief eggheads (and I think is the set of figures that goes out to the individual hospitals) and turns out his team are using Bayesian model stacking ensembles to improve their predictive accuracy. Not just relying on the over-a-decade-old undocumented C code of the Imperial crew...FrancisUrquhart said:
Not quite as bad as them blaming chief egghead for catching the disease. Its one thing blaming Boris for getting it and nearly dying, we will glide past that, but they also blamed the chief egghead as if he has a choice about the environments in which he is having to work, trying to do his best to make the right decisions to save lives.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
I mean he definitely should have done better not to catch this thing that literally can spread so easily you need to be in a spacesuit 24/7 to be safe.
Having done quite a bit of reading of what people traditionally use, I was shocked that things like "Gaussian Processes" never seem to feature. They ideal for analysing the progression of current case / death data.
Realistically until there is a vaccine, we need much more advanced models to be able to move out of the lockdown phase.0 -
I heard someone on the radio say you need a month of convalescence for every night in ICUFoxy said:
if he has any sense he will convalesce quietly in Chequers for a week or two. Hypoxia doesn't make for clear thoughts.RobD said:I bet Boris is chomping at the bit to get out of hospital...
Is there owt in this?0 -
The Duke of Rothesay was staying in his primary residence.Theuniondivvie said:
Or Prince Charles.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
More seriously, he wasn't telling people to stay indoors.0 -
How apt of SeanT to warn that some people have several instances.Casino_Royale said:
I can't remember who it was on here before (Sean Fear?) that there is more than one Andrew Lilico. There are several Andrew Lilicos.williamglenn said:
It's a relief that normal service has resumed. Lilico said a few dangerously rational things recently.Theuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=20
Once you think of it like that it all starts to make sense.0 -
As the Italian PM said on tv (I believe last night). You go too early and everybody thinks you are crazy as there are only (insert small number of deaths) and nobody obeys the rules. Then you are in this big fight trying to get enough people to stick it, and then that can result in having to be in lockdown even longer as you don't actually squash the R0 number enough, instead just getting this prolonged transmission.DAlexander said:
I'm not sure I follow that logic.FrancisUrquhart said:The research, conducted by King's College London and pollsters Ipsos Mori, finds 15% of the population already say they are finding the restrictions very challenging and another 14% expect they will be unable to cope within the next month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52228169
Imagine if the government had locked us down when the media demanded it? Its like these behavioural insight people might know something.
We'll be in exactly the same position after the delayed lockdown, it will take just as long and more people will have died.
You could argue the government left it a bit too late and shouldn't have allowed the likes of the nags on. I personally thought should have been a week previous.
But it is a careful balance, you have to have people at a stage where they know they need to isolate, they are getting scared of what is happening and thus the vast majority will agree to do so.1 -
In some cases, no doubt, but since Boris was never on a ventilator I think it's reasonable to assume he's on the other end of the spectrum.dixiedean said:
I heard someone on the radio say you need a month of convalescence for every night in ICUFoxy said:
if he has any sense he will convalesce quietly in Chequers for a week or two. Hypoxia doesn't make for clear thoughts.RobD said:I bet Boris is chomping at the bit to get out of hospital...
Is there owt in this?0 -
It will lower overall consumption quantities - most markets are sensitive to price - but that doesn't say anything about black markets, home brews or the behaviour of those most desperate or addicted.glw said:
Of course not, but if you are trying to get people who have a drink problem to drink less pricing is a blunt tool, and the people with the biggest problem will be the most disposed to prioritising buying alcohol.TGOHF666 said:
Not all people on low income are alcoholics.glw said:
Alcoholics will give up food before they give up drink.kyf_100 said:
This is worth pulling out from that report:TGOHF666 said:Hopefully this dumb ass nonsense won’t reach England.
https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1248354250209611783?s=21
"Those on below-average incomes have been hit hardest, with those in the bottom income group increasing their expenditure on alcohol by 11 per cent."
An awful policy that has managed to make the lives of the miserable even worse.
Personally I think Governments should leave well alone and tackle the root cause mental health issues instead.0 -
Reading into it, that number is vastly increased by the young, who want to get out more (well, they will probably suffer less if they get it). Much less than that for 45 and over, who are clearly highly concerned about it. Let's not have the former lead the debate, so putting the latter in danger. They have a long life ahead of them and a few months won't change that.rottenborough said:
This. 100x this.FrancisUrquhart said:The research, conducted by King's College London and pollsters Ipsos Mori, finds 15% of the population already say they are finding the restrictions very challenging and another 14% expect they will be unable to cope within the next month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52228169
Imagine if the government had locked us down when the media demanded it? Its like these behavioural insight people might know something.0 -
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I fear the exact opposite. By making it seem as if it is not legitimate to look after aged parents it potentially puts lives at risk. It is extremely dangerous by the media and all for a neat headline.FrancisUrquhart said:
My bigger concern is especially coming up to this Easter holiday weekend, it muddies the message and potentially encourages people to say well if the government minister can do this, I will go on a jolly and round it off with a call into the fam, cos that will be ok cover if I need to have an excuse.Benpointer said:
40 miles according to the Guardian; 150 according to the Mail.williamglenn said:
Either way, he seems to have had a valid reason for the visit, so I expect this to die away in a day or two.
Just like the press love to ask the politicians how many people have you killed today minister with that decision...how many people have you killed today members of the press?1 -
I said Sean Fear, but yeah whatever.Benpointer said:
How apt of SeanT to warn that some people have several instances.Casino_Royale said:
I can't remember who it was on here before (Sean Fear?) that there is more than one Andrew Lilico. There are several Andrew Lilicos.williamglenn said:
It's a relief that normal service has resumed. Lilico said a few dangerously rational things recently.Theuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=20
Once you think of it like that it all starts to make sense.0 -
I think that is a very good point.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear the exact opposite. By making it seem as if it is not legitimate to look after aged parents it potentially puts lives at risk. It is extremely dangerous by the media and all for a neat headline.FrancisUrquhart said:
My bigger concern is especially coming up to this Easter holiday weekend, it muddies the message and potentially encourages people to say well if the government minister can do this, I will go on a jolly and round it off with a call into the fam, cos that will be ok cover if I need to have an excuse.Benpointer said:
40 miles according to the Guardian; 150 according to the Mail.williamglenn said:
Either way, he seems to have had a valid reason for the visit, so I expect this to die away in a day or two.
Just like the press love to ask the politicians how many people have you killed today minister with that decision...how many people have you killed today members of the press?
As well as giving cover to the twats who just want to ignore the rules and go for a day trip to the lake district, it will probably scare honest law abiding folk trying to do the right thing into not wanting to get dobbed in by the curtain twitchers by visiting an elderly relative to make sure they are ok.2 -
https://www.simplymedsonline.co.uk/diagnostic-kits/covid-19-coronavirus-test-kit.htmlBenpointer said:"US President Donald Trump will soon take to the podium for his daily update on Covid-19.
The White House announced today that everyone in the room for the daily briefing will be given a rapid Covid-19 test, with results expected before the start of the briefing." BBC
What's this rapid Covid-19 test and why don't we have it in the UK?
Claims 92% accuracy and MRHA approval FWIW.0 -
My mistake - apolsCasino_Royale said:
I said Sean Fear, but yeah whatever.Benpointer said:
How apt of SeanT to warn that some people have several instances.Casino_Royale said:
I can't remember who it was on here before (Sean Fear?) that there is more than one Andrew Lilico. There are several Andrew Lilicos.williamglenn said:
It's a relief that normal service has resumed. Lilico said a few dangerously rational things recently.Theuniondivvie said:Can you get brain Covid?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1248191695759519744?s=20
Once you think of it like that it all starts to make sense.0 -
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
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Even more seriously, his mum's ministers were. You can't play that just a private citizen card on his behalf unless and until he and Cams disclaim it all and feck off to Malibu to join the sussexes.RobD said:
The Duke of Rothesay was staying in his primary residence.Theuniondivvie said:
Or Prince Charles.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
More seriously, he wasn't telling people to stay indoors.0 -
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.0 -
I fear after all the ridiculous questions from the media about what constituted allowable exercise, what about the plod chasing down freelance journalists and were people allowed to have kids play dates...all the moronic press pack will now be spending all of tomorrow coming up with ludicrous scenarios if that is ok in terms of compassionate care to ask at the presser.
I am claiming it now, it will be 10 questions are about this story and include the most eye rolling bollocks of if a government minister can do x, can a member of the public do y.0 -
I've realised I basically watch Aliens for the auto sentry gun scenes.
Love that bit.1 -
What about pussies such as yourself? You add nothing to the nation and just take up valuable resource from those more worthy than you (ie everyone).eadric said:
Let ‘em die, the fat bastardsisam said:Warning to the ‘perfectly fit and healthy’ people who are 3-4 stone overweight
https://twitter.com/alistairhaimes/status/1248353767684276224?s=21
Seriously. If you can’t stop stuffing yourself with chip butties for a few weeks you are life undeserving of life. Likewise smokers. Stub it out, plague-pit-dodger
As a service to us all you should apply for voluntary euthanasia. Cause of death? Being sat on by someone with a BMI above 30.1 -
The other worry is people then decide to travel to an area which isn't restricted e.g. just like the initial Italian lockdown. We aren't like Canada, where big cities are 1000s of miles apart, it takes a 2-3 hours to drive to London from lots of places and people will do it for a night out.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.0 -
I'm glad we can now all accept that the royal family are irrelevant to the behaviour of the nation(s).RobD said:
The Duke of Rothesay was staying in his primary residence.Theuniondivvie said:
Or Prince Charles.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
More seriously, he wasn't telling people to stay indoors.
What are they for again?0 -
Do you feel the same about heavy drinkers and former heroin addicts?eadric said:
Let ‘em die, the fat bastardsisam said:Warning to the ‘perfectly fit and healthy’ people who are 3-4 stone overweight
https://twitter.com/alistairhaimes/status/1248353767684276224?s=21
Seriously. If you can’t stop stuffing yourself with chip butties for a few weeks you are life undeserving of life. Likewise smokers. Stub it out, plague-pit-dodger1 -
Or will be in two to three weeks time.RobD said:
At least now the top team are immuneFrancisUrquhart said:
Not quite as bad as them blaming chief egghead for catching the disease. Its one thing blaming Boris for getting it and nearly dying, we will glide past that, but they also blamed the chief egghead as if he has a choice about the environments in which he is having to work, trying to do his best to make the right decisions to save lives.RobD said:.
The media really aren't having a good crisis, are they? It's not as if he was going there for a jolly like the Scottish CMO...williamglenn said:
I mean he definitely should have done better not to catch this thing that literally can spread so easily you need to be in a spacesuit 24/7 to be safe.0 -
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.JohnLilburne said:
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.1 -
Do you know, I think if this had happened 30 or 40 years ago people in different areas would have been issued with slightly different instructions. For example, those living in rural / isolated areas like the Orkney and Shetland Islands would have received less stringent instructions compared to people living in big cities like London and Birmingham. And guess what: 99% of people in all of those areas would have respected their local instructions without complaining. The problem today is that there's an obsession with everyone getting "equal treatment" which makes such an approach utterly unworkable.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.1 -
"Now all we need is a deck of cards" is a cool line even by Aliens standards.Casino_Royale said:I've realised I basically watch Aliens for the auto sentry gun scenes.
Love that bit.
I don't think the sentry guns were in the original release, they wwere put back in to the director's cut.1 -
Does anybody still sing Happy Birthday while washing their hands? This was all the rage a couple of weeks ago but nobody seems to have mentioned it since0
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As much as anyone.TOPPING said:
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.JohnLilburne said:
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
0 -
Yep.FrancisUrquhart said:
The other worry is people then decide to travel to an area which isn't restricted e.g. just like the initial Italian lockdown. We aren't like Canada, where big cities are 1000s of miles apart, it takes a 2-3 hours to drive to London from lots of places and people will do it for a night out.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.0 -
I think it is just one of those kites flown to be shot down. No one could seriously think it might work.Andy_JS said:
Do you know, I think if this had happened 30 or 40 years ago, people in different areas would have been issued with different instructions. For example, those living in rural / isolated areas like the Orkney and Shetland Islands would have received less stringent instructions compared to people living in big cities like London and Birmingham. And guess what: 99% of people in all of those areas would have respected their local instructions without complaining. The problem today is that there's an obsession with everyone getting "equal treatment" which makes such an approach utterly unworkable.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.0 -
Yes. I did today. For some reason. It is not that long a song. (The Radiohead version that is.)MikeSmithson said:Does anybody still sing Happy Birthday while washing their hands? This was all the rage a couple of weeks ago but nobody seems to have mentioned it since
0 -
Imagine if Wales lift restriction before England, all those people in places like Bristol will be over that Second Seven crossing before you can say gert lush. And what about Scotland before England, all those that go down the toon, will be in Edinburgh on the lash instead.
Would be a total an utter disaster, unless you are going to have Chinese style blockades around cities.0 -
Roadblocks.TOPPING said:
Yep.FrancisUrquhart said:
The other worry is people then decide to travel to an area which isn't restricted e.g. just like the initial Italian lockdown. We aren't like Canada, where big cities are 1000s of miles apart, it takes a 2-3 hours to drive to London from lots of places and people will do it for a night out.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.0 -
I think your spiritual home is many miles East.JohnLilburne said:
As much as anyone.TOPPING said:
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.JohnLilburne said:
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.TOPPING said:Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
That's not how we do it here.0
