Based on all deaths registered in England & Wales in the w/e 27 March:
- there were over 11,000 total deaths, up 500 on the week before, 1,000 higher than the 5 year average for the same week (but when Easter falls affects that average as registration offices are shut) - 539 of these involved COVID, 5% of all deaths - 18% of all deaths in London involved COVID - COVID related deaths impacted older people more (as do all deaths of course) - 62% of COVID related deaths were males - 93% of COVID related deaths took place in a hospital setting
Based on deaths that occurred in Eng only, with a confirmed date of death up to Fri 27 March, we now have 3 data sources to compare: - the daily govt announcement the following day (28 March) indicated there had been 926 positive COVID tested deaths in hospitals - based on all deaths actually registered by the 1st April (where the death has been certified and informed to the local registration service and then sent to us for statistical analysis) 1,568 had COVID mentioned on the death certificate for deaths up to 27 March - NHS England are now reconciling the figures announced daily by relating them back to actual date of death. Their Sun 5 April data indicated there were 1,649 deaths with a +ve COVID test in hospital settings by 27 Mar. Their figures currently closely match ours day by day
Death registrations take 5 days on avg after actual date of death at the best of times, so our figures will still go a fair bit higher for that same period. There are clearly also lags in hospitals confirming and reporting deaths every day. This is perfectly understandable
NHS England's figures may still go higher for that period too, but probably not as high as ours will end up. Ours will eventually be the gold standard data source and also include all deaths, regardless of whether they took place inside hospitals or not (care homes etc)
The lags in daily reporting mean that when deaths start going down, that will also lag. i.e. we might not see it for a few days after it starts. It also now looks like the lags are more pronounced in the daily figures announced on Sun and Mon. There is a weekend effect here
Remember, of deaths actually registered in w/e 27 March, regardless of actual date of death, only 7% were outside hospital settings. We might expect that to increase if: - the lags in registering deaths outside hospitals are more pronounced in a lockdown (don't know yet) - NHS critical care / intensive care capacities are breached - care homes suffer significant COVID outbreaks.
So, please stay home. Please don't visit care homes
Very helpful summary indeed. (I found the weekend effect statistically significant when I did some GLM time series modelling of the data myself.)
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.
As much as anyone. I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
I think your spiritual home is many miles East.
That's not how we do it here.
No, we generally allow criminals to go about their unlawful business unchallenged. While accepting that the police have sometimes been somewhat bizarre in how they have sought to enforce the lockdown, why should it not, in fact, be enforced?
Imagine if Wales lift restriction before England, all those people in places like Bristol will be over that Second Seven crossing before you can say gert lush. And what about Scotland before England, all those that go down the toon, will be in Edinburgh on the lash instead.
Would be a total an utter disaster, unless you are going to have Chinese style blockades around cities.
True, that's how many people would behave today. I don't think they would have done in previous decades, except a tiny minority.
40 miles according to the Guardian; 150 according to the Mail.
Either way, he seems to have had a valid reason for the visit, so I expect this to die away in a day or two.
My bigger concern is especially coming up to this Easter holiday weekend, it muddies the message and potentially encourages people to say well if the government minister can do this, I will go on a jolly and round it off with a call into the fam, cos that will be ok cover if I need to have an excuse.
Just like the press love to ask the politicians how many people have you killed today minister with that decision...how many people have you killed today members of the press?
I fear the exact opposite. By making it seem as if it is not legitimate to look after aged parents it potentially puts lives at risk. It is extremely dangerous by the media and all for a neat headline.
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.
As much as anyone. I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
Maybe you could volunteer to go first in making that point?
Watching the BBC News stressing the number of deaths does not include those who died in the community or care homes, this suggests that there must be done kind of cap given that there are indeed a limited number places in hospital for people being admitted with c19. I guess over time we will get a better sense of how many people have very tragically died. Apologies if this has already been mentioned earlier.
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.
As much as anyone. I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
Maybe you could volunteer to go first in making that point?
I fail to see how it is controversial to suggest that people who are breaking the law should be arrested.
Seriously. If you can’t stop stuffing yourself with chip butties for a few weeks you are life undeserving of life. Likewise smokers. Stub it out, plague-pit-dodger
What about pussies such as yourself? You add nothing to the nation and just take up valuable resource from those more worthy than you (ie everyone).
As a service to us all you should apply for voluntary euthanasia. Cause of death? Being sat on by someone with a BMI above 30.
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.
As much as anyone. I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
I think your spiritual home is many miles East.
That's not how we do it here.
No, we generally allow criminals to go about their unlawful business unchallenged. While accepting that the police have sometimes been somewhat bizarre in how they have sought to enforce the lockdown, why should it not, in fact, be enforced?
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.
As much as anyone. I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
I think your spiritual home is many miles East.
That's not how we do it here.
i agree, but it is perhaps why we have more deaths though.
We have sentry guns outside out front porch tuned to the Coronavirus. Very precise targeting. Can take out a virus at two meters. They were going all night last night. Most reminiscent of Aliens. Shame about the milkman of course.
Has anyone considered shoving the queen Coronavirus out of airlock?
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.
As much as anyone. I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
I think your spiritual home is many miles East.
That's not how we do it here.
i agree, but it is perhaps why we have more deaths though.
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.
As much as anyone. I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
We have sentry guns outside out front porch tuned to the Coronavirus. Very precise targeting. Can take out a virus at two meters. They were going all night last night. Most reminiscent of Aliens. Shame about the milkman of course.
Has anyone considered shoving the queen Coronavirus out of airlock?
Nuke Richmond Park from orbit. It's the only way to be sure (social distancing rules are upheld)...
Does anybody still sing Happy Birthday while washing their hands? This was all the rage a couple of weeks ago but nobody seems to have mentioned it since
I was too self conscious to ever do so even when alone/
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
If the women all said they fancied white men and thought Sunak was unattractive, that would have been racist too I reckon
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
Unsurprising - people have have claimed that electing 2 women as Prime Minister is evidence of intractable misogyny in the Conservative Party.
Come to think of it, proclaiming loyalty to a Queen is further evidence of that.
We have sentry guns outside out front porch tuned to the Coronavirus. Very precise targeting. Can take out a virus at two meters. They were going all night last night. Most reminiscent of Aliens. Shame about the milkman of course.
Has anyone considered shoving the queen Coronavirus out of airlock?
Nuke Richmond Park from orbit. It's the only way to be sure (social distancing rules are upheld)...
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
If the women all said they fancied white men and thought Sunak was unattractive, that would have been racist too I reckon
"Surely a white woman finding an Asian bloke attractive is the opposite of racism?”, I can already see some of you furiously typing into the comment bar. But that’s the thing about sexual racism: it’s subtle, it’s about the way the attraction is framed"
Sounds like a 'the fact you don't think you're racist proves you're racist' or 'The more you don't think you're racist the more racist you are' argument.
This bit is interesting to me:
Gill states in her article that although “Keir Starmer is, at a first glance, far more aesthetically pleasing”, Rishi is the man she’d rather self-isolate with. This distinction is perhaps more revealing than the writer realises – she inadvertently tells us that she finds a very average-looking white man (no offence, Keir) is far more attractive than the South Asian man she seems to have fallen for
Now, I don't consider myself an expert on judging male attractiveness, but I'm not entirely sure how Gill deciding Starmer is more attractive generally than Sunak is not ok, while the writer's belief that Sunak is much more attactive than Starmer is ok. I mean, is Sunak objectively far more attractive than Starmer?
I do think it's true, for instance in Hollywood, that those of asian descent have had even less prominence than those of african descent though. Less role variety too apparently.
But it'll stir people up, so I assume the piece has done its work.
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
If the women all said they fancied white men and thought Sunak was unattractive, that would have been racist too I reckon
"Surely a white woman finding an Asian bloke attractive is the opposite of racism?”, I can already see some of you furiously typing into the comment bar. But that’s the thing about sexual racism: it’s subtle, it’s about the way the attraction is framed"
Sounds like a 'the fact you don't think you're racist proves you're racist' or 'The more you don't think you're racist the more racist you are' argument.
This bit is interesting to me:
Gill states in her article that although “Keir Starmer is, at a first glance, far more aesthetically pleasing”, Rishi is the man she’d rather self-isolate with. This distinction is perhaps more revealing than the writer realises – she inadvertently tells us that she finds a very average-looking white man (no offence, Keir) is far more attractive than the South Asian man she seems to have fallen for
Now, I don't consider myself an expert on judging male attractiveness, but I'm not entirely sure how Gill deciding Starmer is more attractive generally than Sunak is not ok, while the writer's belief that Sunak is much more attactive than Starmer is ok. I mean, is Sunak objectively far more attractive than Starmer?
I do think it's true, for instance in Hollywood, that those of asian descent have had even less prominence than those of african descent though. Less role variety too apparently.
But it'll stir people up, so I assume the piece has done its work.
Yes. I suppose her point is some people fantasise about ‘forbidden fruit’ so to speak, and that is a giveaway that they’re not up to speed equality wise.
Very good point by Andy Burnham. If it's a phased end to the lockdown then it can't be on a regional basis. The people of Birmingham and elsewhere are not going to stay indoors if they see people in, say, London out on the lash.
As I have said before, it should be a gradual indoor inkspot lifting with people increasing the group of people they associate with gradually.
Of course it could be done locally. Surplus police from non-locked-down areas could be used to enforce the local lockdown.
Jesus you don't understand the Brits do you.
As much as anyone. I think we need mass arrests to make the point.
Coronavirus is such a complex topic to discuss. What will we be talking about in July in three months time? Doctor of the year? PPE supplies? Vaccine trial results? Different social distancing regimes? Something like that surely. There is nothing else now.
I think it would be missed because to most people, and even to political wonks like me, the phrase 'mutualise debt', however important, might as well say 'turn off brain now'
Coronavirus is such a complex topic to discuss. What will we be talking about in July in three months time? Doctor of the year? PPE supplies? Vaccine trial results? Different social distancing regimes? Something like that surely. There is nothing else now.
We'll be back to arguing over who is to blame for things.
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
If the women all said they fancied white men and thought Sunak was unattractive, that would have been racist too I reckon
"Surely a white woman finding an Asian bloke attractive is the opposite of racism?”, I can already see some of you furiously typing into the comment bar. But that’s the thing about sexual racism: it’s subtle, it’s about the way the attraction is framed"
Sounds like a 'the fact you don't think you're racist proves you're racist' or 'The more you don't think you're racist the more racist you are' argument.
This bit is interesting to me:
Gill states in her article that although “Keir Starmer is, at a first glance, far more aesthetically pleasing”, Rishi is the man she’d rather self-isolate with. This distinction is perhaps more revealing than the writer realises – she inadvertently tells us that she finds a very average-looking white man (no offence, Keir) is far more attractive than the South Asian man she seems to have fallen for
Now, I don't consider myself an expert on judging male attractiveness, but I'm not entirely sure how Gill deciding Starmer is more attractive generally than Sunak is not ok, while the writer's belief that Sunak is much more attactive than Starmer is ok. I mean, is Sunak objectively far more attractive than Starmer?
I do think it's true, for instance in Hollywood, that those of asian descent have had even less prominence than those of african descent though. Less role variety too apparently.
But it'll stir people up, so I assume the piece has done its work.
His trousers were about an inch too short on the clip on the news tonight. Even if I were much that way inclined, he would now be dead to me.
Coronavirus is such a complex topic to discuss. What will we be talking about in July in three months time? Doctor of the year? PPE supplies? Vaccine trial results? Different social distancing regimes? Something like that surely. There is nothing else now.
By July? We'll all be asking whether or not the lockdown was worth it as the economy remains on life support, unemployment rises to record highs, and the government starts to wonder how it will pay for anything.
Of course, we'll never know how many people the lockdown will saved (or how many years they were likely to have lived, anyway). But paradoxically the lower the death count, the more people will wonder why such a fuss over nothing when they are now out of a job and can't pay their mortgage.
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
If the women all said they fancied white men and thought Sunak was unattractive, that would have been racist too I reckon
"Surely a white woman finding an Asian bloke attractive is the opposite of racism?”, I can already see some of you furiously typing into the comment bar. But that’s the thing about sexual racism: it’s subtle, it’s about the way the attraction is framed"
Sounds like a 'the fact you don't think you're racist proves you're racist' or 'The more you don't think you're racist the more racist you are' argument.
This bit is interesting to me:
Gill states in her article that although “Keir Starmer is, at a first glance, far more aesthetically pleasing”, Rishi is the man she’d rather self-isolate with. This distinction is perhaps more revealing than the writer realises – she inadvertently tells us that she finds a very average-looking white man (no offence, Keir) is far more attractive than the South Asian man she seems to have fallen for
Now, I don't consider myself an expert on judging male attractiveness, but I'm not entirely sure how Gill deciding Starmer is more attractive generally than Sunak is not ok, while the writer's belief that Sunak is much more attactive than Starmer is ok. I mean, is Sunak objectively far more attractive than Starmer?
I do think it's true, for instance in Hollywood, that those of asian descent have had even less prominence than those of african descent though. Less role variety too apparently.
But it'll stir people up, so I assume the piece has done its work.
His trousers were about an inch too short on the clip on the news tonight. Even if I were much that way inclined, he would now be dead to me.
Strong stance. People need to have standards.
As a short legged, cheap suited gentleman, I confess trousers being overlong is my issue, who knows how many people it has put off.
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
I disagree.
Firstly, they are allowing the Italians and Spanish to borrow, backed by the ECB to their hearts content. That is far more useful that the creation of a Coronabond.
Secondly, the debt of New Jersey is not guaranteed by the people of Wyoming.
Imagine if Wales lift restriction before England, all those people in places like Bristol will be over that Second Seven crossing before you can say gert lush. And what about Scotland before England, all those that go down the toon, will be in Edinburgh on the lash instead.
Would be a total an utter disaster, unless you are going to have Chinese style blockades around cities.
True, that's how many people would behave today. I don't think they would have done in previous decades, except a tiny minority.
I do not think that people have changed that much. The trains out of London were full at the start of WWII. The only reason that it wasn't more so was general lack of somewhere to sleep. Yes, there was a government evacuation of children etc, but this was a much more general thing.
The big difference is that many more have access to the means of mobility - money, vehicles etc.
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
If the women all said they fancied white men and thought Sunak was unattractive, that would have been racist too I reckon
"Surely a white woman finding an Asian bloke attractive is the opposite of racism?”, I can already see some of you furiously typing into the comment bar. But that’s the thing about sexual racism: it’s subtle, it’s about the way the attraction is framed"
Sounds like a 'the fact you don't think you're racist proves you're racist' or 'The more you don't think you're racist the more racist you are' argument.
This bit is interesting to me:
Gill states in her article that although “Keir Starmer is, at a first glance, far more aesthetically pleasing”, Rishi is the man she’d rather self-isolate with. This distinction is perhaps more revealing than the writer realises – she inadvertently tells us that she finds a very average-looking white man (no offence, Keir) is far more attractive than the South Asian man she seems to have fallen for
Now, I don't consider myself an expert on judging male attractiveness, but I'm not entirely sure how Gill deciding Starmer is more attractive generally than Sunak is not ok, while the writer's belief that Sunak is much more attactive than Starmer is ok. I mean, is Sunak objectively far more attractive than Starmer?
I do think it's true, for instance in Hollywood, that those of asian descent have had even less prominence than those of african descent though. Less role variety too apparently.
But it'll stir people up, so I assume the piece has done its work.
His trousers were about an inch too short on the clip on the news tonight. Even if I were much that way inclined, he would now be dead to me.
Strong stance. People need to have standards.
As a short legged, cheap suited gentleman, I confess trousers being overlong is my issue, who knows how many people it has put off.
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
I disagree.
Firstly, they are allowing the Italians and Spanish to borrow, backed by the ECB to their hearts content. That is far more useful that the creation of a Coronabond.
Secondly, the debt of New Jersey is not guaranteed by the people of Wyoming.
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
I disagree.
Firstly, they are allowing the Italians and Spanish to borrow, backed by the ECB to their hearts content. That is far more useful that the creation of a Coronabond.
Secondly, the debt of New Jersey is not guaranteed by the people of Wyoming.
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
I disagree.
Firstly, they are allowing the Italians and Spanish to borrow, backed by the ECB to their hearts content. That is far more useful that the creation of a Coronabond.
Secondly, the debt of New Jersey is not guaranteed by the people of Wyoming.
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
I disagree.
Firstly, they are allowing the Italians and Spanish to borrow, backed by the ECB to their hearts content. That is far more useful that the creation of a Coronabond.
Secondly, the debt of New Jersey is not guaranteed by the people of Wyoming.
That document mentions that they're buying EUR750bn of bonds as part of "Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme". Which is a polite way of saying "we're buying as many bonds as you can print"
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
Respectfully I disagree. The big story is social not geo political.
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
I disagree.
Firstly, they are allowing the Italians and Spanish to borrow, backed by the ECB to their hearts content. That is far more useful that the creation of a Coronabond.
Secondly, the debt of New Jersey is not guaranteed by the people of Wyoming.
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
I disagree.
Firstly, they are allowing the Italians and Spanish to borrow, backed by the ECB to their hearts content. That is far more useful that the creation of a Coronabond.
Secondly, the debt of New Jersey is not guaranteed by the people of Wyoming.
Salvini and Conte demanded that Europe should pool its debt, and issue special corona bonds to pay for it.
Madrid and Paris agreed, etc etc
That hasn’t happened. The northern countries did not blink.
Do you really think the Italian government is more creditworthy now than 12 months ago?
Their government debt-to-GDP is going to increase by - ooohhhh... - 50% in the next six months as their economy contracts and their borrowing goes through the roof.
That should result in the Italian government bonds yields spiking. Instead they're down.
Why? Because there is a massive purchaser of Italian government bonds in Frankfurt that is allowing the to spend all they want.
The EU has failed to mutualise its debt. In the face of the gravest threat in 100 years.
If the EU Nations are unwilling to share the pains of peril at this point, then they never will. The EU as a project is therefore doomed. It may take 10 years it may take 50.
All else is violins on the Titanic
Respectfully I disagree. The big story is social not geo political.
Fair comment
I got focused on minutiae
This story is so big it dwarfs everything. On the upside I am weirdly enjoying lockdown, the sun, the sleep, the necessity for rest, the total reset. I don’t think I am alone.
I wish god speed to all Pb-ers. Night night and see you soon
Me too. Enjoying is perhaps a strong word. I'd love to go into Toon and sit in YOLO drinking coffee and watching Geordies Geordie about the place. But what constitutes the good life is a question that harks back to Plato and the Buddha. Nor bond markets.
Note that "your own gov" and "congress" are multiple choice, in sense that Nancy Pelosi & Mitch McConnell would receive different grades from different folks, and different govs different ratings state-to-state.
Would be interesting to see how Gov. Cuomo the Younger is polling in NY state as opposed to nationally. (BTW long article in yesterday's NY Times had serious critique of his leadership or rather lack thereof early in current crisis)
Re; other govs, reckon those getting highest ratings in state and beyond their home turf would include
> Jay Inslee (D - WA) he's the gov Trumpsky called "a snake" > Mike DeWine (R - OH) - profile of courage standing up to Trumpers > Gretchen Whittmer (D - OH) - now a front runner for Dem VP nomination > Larry Hogan (R - MD) - also had to buck Trump, but less political risk than OH > John Bel Edwards (D - LA) gave the alarm from heart of Deep South
An interesting case is Gina Raimondo (D - Rhode Island) who took flack for telling New Yorkers with 2nd homes in her state to keep out; but her stand is a big plus with her own voters.
Note that "your own gov" and "congress" are multiple choice, in sense that Nancy Pelosi & Mitch McConnell would receive different grades from different folks, and different govs different ratings state-to-state.
Would be interesting to see how Gov. Cuomo the Younger is polling in NY state as opposed to nationally. (BTW long article in yesterday's NY Times had serious critique of his leadership or rather lack thereof early in current crisis)
Re; other govs, reckon those getting highest ratings in state and beyond their home turf would include
> Jay Inslee (D - WA) he's the gov Trumpsky called "a snake" > Mike DeWine (R - OH) - profile of courage standing up to Trumpers > Gretchen Whittmer (D - MI) - now a front runner for Dem VP nomination > Larry Hogan (R - MD) - also had to buck Trump, but less political risk than OH > John Bel Edwards (D - LA) gave the alarm from heart of Deep South
An interesting case is Gina Raimondo (D - Rhode Island) who took flack for telling New Yorkers with 2nd homes in her state to keep out; but her stand is a big plus with her own voters.
Note that "your own gov" and "congress" are multiple choice, in sense that Nancy Pelosi & Mitch McConnell would receive different grades from different folks, and different govs different ratings state-to-state.
Would be interesting to see how Gov. Cuomo the Younger is polling in NY state as opposed to nationally. (BTW long article in yesterday's NY Times had serious critique of his leadership or rather lack thereof early in current crisis)
Re; other govs, reckon those getting highest ratings in state and beyond their home turf would include
> Jay Inslee (D - WA) he's the gov Trumpsky called "a snake" > Mike DeWine (R - OH) - profile of courage standing up to Trumpers > Gretchen Whittmer (D - MI) - now a front runner for Dem VP nomination > Larry Hogan (R - MD) - also had to buck Trump, but less political risk than OH > John Bel Edwards (D - LA) gave the alarm from heart of Deep South
An interesting case is Gina Raimondo (D - Rhode Island) who took flack for telling New Yorkers with 2nd homes in her state to keep out; but her stand is a big plus with her own voters.
Wittmer is Gov of Michigan of course.
To go off at a wild tangent: a former Lieutenant Governor of Michigan, and failed gubernatorial candidate in 2002, has one of the best names I think I've ever seen in American politics, and since American politics is one of the world's richest sources of amazing nomenclature, by default one of the best names I think I've ever seen full stop. And some of the names in your list are pretty good, they're just not up there with this one.
I particularly like the idea of someone calling out at roll-call, "Posthumus, Dick?"
According to Wikipedia, Posthumus is a surname mostly stemming from the Dutch province of Friesland. Among variants are Posthuma and Postmus. The surname may have originated in the same way Romans called boys and girls born after the death of their father Postumus and Postuma, and the common Frisian name Postma sometimes is a derivative of such a name. Alternatively, the situation is reversed, with the surname Postma or Postema morphing to "Posthuma" and further to "Posthumus".
Re: Bernie Sanders, one fun fact from the March 2020 Washington State Presidential Primary, was that while Biden won the state, it was Sanders who won several voting precincts located on military bases, to be specific Joint Base Lewis McChord near Tacoma and Whidbey Island US Naval Air Station north of Seattle.
Now these on-base voters are outnumbered by active duty and retired military living and voting just off-base, and by and large these precincts went for Trump, though by somewhat reduced percentages compared with 2016 general election; he was uncontested for 2020 primary nomination on WA ballot.
Nevertheless it is interesting that on-base military - generally younger than most voters OR troops - displayed a slight but methinks significant preference for Bernie over not just Biden but alsoTrump.
To go off at a wild tangent: a former Lieutenant Governor of Michigan, and failed gubernatorial candidate in 2002, has one of the best names I think I've ever seen in American politics
Dick Posthumus
IF you like his name, then guessing you will appreciate name of fellow who ran unsuccessfully for Gov of WV in 1968 and has an interesting wiki page:
Really great to see Sea Shanty Irish posting on this thread. A most welcome return for a poster who built up a great reputation on the site many years ago for his knowledge on US elections as well as detailed analysis of where things were. Great to see you back
"Dangerous for America" - meh, I don't think that really sticks. There are a lot of problems with Biden as a candidate but a strength he does has is that the voters already know him, and with the possible exception of the dementia angle it's going to be really hard to make them scared of him.
Comments
https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1247792168418168837
An extract:
Based on all deaths registered in England & Wales in the w/e 27 March:
- there were over 11,000 total deaths, up 500 on the week before, 1,000 higher than the 5 year average for the same week (but when Easter falls affects that average as registration offices are shut)
- 539 of these involved COVID, 5% of all deaths
- 18% of all deaths in London involved COVID
- COVID related deaths impacted older people more (as do all deaths of course)
- 62% of COVID related deaths were males
- 93% of COVID related deaths took place in a hospital setting
Based on deaths that occurred in Eng only, with a confirmed date of death up to Fri 27 March, we now have 3 data sources to compare:
- the daily govt announcement the following day (28 March) indicated there had been 926 positive COVID tested deaths in hospitals
- based on all deaths actually registered by the 1st April (where the death has been certified and informed to the local registration service and then sent to us for statistical analysis) 1,568 had COVID mentioned on the death certificate for deaths up to 27 March
- NHS England are now reconciling the figures announced daily by relating them back to actual date of death. Their Sun 5 April data indicated there were 1,649 deaths with a +ve COVID test in hospital settings by 27 Mar. Their figures currently closely match ours day by day
Death registrations take 5 days on avg after actual date of death at the best of times, so our figures will still go a fair bit higher for that same period. There are clearly also lags in hospitals confirming and reporting deaths every day. This is perfectly understandable
NHS England's figures may still go higher for that period too, but probably not as high as ours will end up. Ours will eventually be the gold standard data source and also include all deaths, regardless of whether they took place inside hospitals or not (care homes etc)
The lags in daily reporting mean that when deaths start going down, that will also lag. i.e. we might not see it for a few days after it starts. It also now looks like the lags are more pronounced in the daily figures announced on Sun and Mon. There is a weekend effect here
Remember, of deaths actually registered in w/e 27 March, regardless of actual date of death, only 7% were outside hospital settings. We might expect that to increase if:
- the lags in registering deaths outside hospitals are more pronounced in a lockdown (don't know yet)
- NHS critical care / intensive care capacities are breached
- care homes suffer significant COVID outbreaks.
So, please stay home. Please don't visit care homes
Very helpful summary indeed. (I found the weekend effect statistically significant when I did some GLM time series modelling of the data myself.)
Jacqui Smith and Jess Phillips say ‘Imagine’
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1247947311667449856?s=21
While accepting that the police have sometimes been somewhat bizarre in how they have sought to enforce the lockdown, why should it not, in fact, be enforced?
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1248345349841879040?s=19
Has anyone considered shoving the queen Coronavirus out of airlock?
The most Woke article anyone has yet written:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/rishi-sunak-conservative-crush-vogue-white-women-flora-e-gill-a9456036.html
"Your ‘strange’ crush on Rishi Sunak could actually be a racist fetish
When your lust for someone is layered with surprise, you’re perpetuating the idea that, under normal circumstances, you’d find this person undesirable"
Come to think of it, proclaiming loyalty to a Queen is further evidence of that.
All Right Now
Sounds like a 'the fact you don't think you're racist proves you're racist' or 'The more you don't think you're racist the more racist you are' argument.
This bit is interesting to me:
Gill states in her article that although “Keir Starmer is, at a first glance, far more aesthetically pleasing”, Rishi is the man she’d rather self-isolate with. This distinction is perhaps more revealing than the writer realises – she inadvertently tells us that she finds a very average-looking white man (no offence, Keir) is far more attractive than the South Asian man she seems to have fallen for
Now, I don't consider myself an expert on judging male attractiveness, but I'm not entirely sure how Gill deciding Starmer is more attractive generally than Sunak is not ok, while the writer's belief that Sunak is much more attactive than Starmer is ok. I mean, is Sunak objectively far more attractive than Starmer?
I do think it's true, for instance in Hollywood, that those of asian descent have had even less prominence than those of african descent though. Less role variety too apparently.
But it'll stir people up, so I assume the piece has done its work.
PM - "The Duke of Edinburgh is flying. Hallelujah, Hallelujah!"
Of course, we'll never know how many people the lockdown will saved (or how many years they were likely to have lived, anyway). But paradoxically the lower the death count, the more people will wonder why such a fuss over nothing when they are now out of a job and can't pay their mortgage.
As a short legged, cheap suited gentleman, I confess trousers being overlong is my issue, who knows how many people it has put off.
Firstly, they are allowing the Italians and Spanish to borrow, backed by the ECB to their hearts content. That is far more useful that the creation of a Coronabond.
Secondly, the debt of New Jersey is not guaranteed by the people of Wyoming.
The big difference is that many more have access to the means of mobility - money, vehicles etc.
There is no way their borrowing costs would be *lower* year-over-year without effectively unlimited purchasing of Italian Government Bonds.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkit-10y?countrycode=bx
That sounds like the deals that my local pot shop (in Seattle) is now offering
Their government debt-to-GDP is going to increase by - ooohhhh... - 50% in the next six months as their economy contracts and their borrowing goes through the roof.
That should result in the Italian government bonds yields spiking. Instead they're down.
Why? Because there is a massive purchaser of Italian government bonds in Frankfurt that is allowing the to spend all they want.
Would be interesting to see how Gov. Cuomo the Younger is polling in NY state as opposed to nationally. (BTW long article in yesterday's NY Times had serious critique of his leadership or rather lack thereof early in current crisis)
Re; other govs, reckon those getting highest ratings in state and beyond their home turf would include
> Jay Inslee (D - WA) he's the gov Trumpsky called "a snake"
> Mike DeWine (R - OH) - profile of courage standing up to Trumpers
> Gretchen Whittmer (D - OH) - now a front runner for Dem VP nomination
> Larry Hogan (R - MD) - also had to buck Trump, but less political risk than OH
> John Bel Edwards (D - LA) gave the alarm from heart of Deep South
An interesting case is Gina Raimondo (D - Rhode Island) who took flack for telling New Yorkers with 2nd homes in her state to keep out; but her stand is a big plus with her own voters.
Dick Posthumus.
I particularly like the idea of someone calling out at roll-call, "Posthumus, Dick?"
According to Wikipedia, Posthumus is a surname mostly stemming from the Dutch province of Friesland. Among variants are Posthuma and Postmus. The surname may have originated in the same way Romans called boys and girls born after the death of their father Postumus and Postuma, and the common Frisian name Postma sometimes is a derivative of such a name. Alternatively, the situation is reversed, with the surname Postma or Postema morphing to "Posthuma" and further to "Posthumus".
Now these on-base voters are outnumbered by active duty and retired military living and voting just off-base, and by and large these precincts went for Trump, though by somewhat reduced percentages compared with 2016 general election; he was uncontested for 2020 primary nomination on WA ballot.
Nevertheless it is interesting that on-base military - generally younger than most voters OR troops - displayed a slight but methinks significant preference for Bernie over not just Biden but alsoTrump.
Wittmer is Gov of Michigan of course.
To go off at a wild tangent: a former Lieutenant Governor of Michigan, and failed gubernatorial candidate in 2002, has one of the best names I think I've ever seen in American politics
Dick Posthumus
IF you like his name, then guessing you will appreciate name of fellow who ran unsuccessfully for Gov of WV in 1968 and has an interesting wiki page:
Peter Beter aka Peter D. Beter