My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.
True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)
The latest fashion appears to be walking along, talking to someone next to you, about a metre apart. Not actually social distancing, but nicely blocking the pavement.
I've tried locally suggesting that people walking west go on the north side of the road, east on the south etc.
An off-topic flashback to my schooldays, and one teacher helping to manage staircase congestion with her cry of, "up on the left; down on the right".
That is brilliantly funny. At risk of stereotyping, so very Aussie in its style as well!
Absolutely wonderful
Whatever the rights or wrongs of speculation about China in all this business, a newspaper getting an official snooty letter in defence of a murderous authoritarian regime, well, I dont know what the local functionaries were thinking.
You’re making quite an assumption in that sentence.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
The problem with Gove is that he’s too political. It is impossible to take a word he says as a straight answer. If Boris is out convalescing for a few weeks (which would be sensible for anyone in ICU), I hope they appoint a more neutral caretaker. Hague or Hunt probably. Someone you can trust, with personal authority.
Problem with that is to do so would itself be political by sidelining the designated choice. If they cannot be trusted thats political too.
I think people will get over it. If Raab in acting PM then there are a couple of oven ready Tories with experience of the FO who could step in.
On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.
I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.
My late father was like that. Fit as a fiddle in his early 40s, held the record for an obstacle course for the British army for his age group, roll on 10 years and a couple of heart attacks and he would struggle to get into the stand for the football with me. Heavy smoker which didn't help.
I am now in my late 50s, never smoked and try my best but I am overweight and it is a worry. Recently I have been burning off 3k+ calories a day but WFH surrounded by snacks is not making this easy.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
You're likely right, I was just venting as the smell drives me nuts.
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.
True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)
The latest fashion appears to be walking along, talking to someone next to you, about a metre apart. Not actually social distancing, but nicely blocking the pavement.
I've tried locally suggesting that people walking west go on the north side of the road, east on the south etc.
I tend to take my daily exercise in the park down the road from me at roughly the same time each day. Inevitably, there are a number of others I consistently see who are on the same schedule. Distancing is going reasonably well, with some minor awkwardness with joggers overtaking walkers overtaking dog walkers, but we'd all be a whole lot better off if we could all agree to walk round clockwise*.
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
Fair point, and it was Morgan asking it. The answer was interesting nonetheless.
That is brilliantly funny. At risk of stereotyping, so very Aussie in its style as well!
Absolutely wonderful
Whatever the rights or wrongs of speculation about China in all this business, a newspaper getting an official snooty letter in defence of a murderous authoritarian regime, well, I dont know what the local functionaries were thinking.
You’re making quite an assumption in that sentence.
The letter was putting down a marker. Next a bunch of companies that advertise in the paper will express their concern for the editorial line - on behalf of their Chinese shareholders....
On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.
I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.
My late father was like that. Fit as a fiddle in his early 40s, held the record for an obstacle course for the British army for his age group, roll on 10 years and a couple of heart attacks and he would struggle to get into the stand for the football with me. Heavy smoker which didn't help.
I am now in my late 50s, never smoked and try my best but I am overweight and it is a worry. Recently I have been burning off 3k+ calories a day but WFH surrounded by snacks is not making this easy.
I walk three miles a day. The fish and chip shop is one and a half miles away.
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
Fair point, and it was Morgan asking it. The answer was interesting nonetheless.
Depends on how bad the super low oil price hits Russia. I could see Putin needing to borrow a bit of the Near Abroad to keep the flames of patriotic joyjoy rolling along.
I see Liverpool have apologised and reversed their furlough decision. Damned right too.. if the players took a 1pc cut in their wages it woild probably more than cover it.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
One would hope that the droplets potentially containing the virus don't travel as far as vaping exhaust fumes, which are an aerosol if I understand correctly.
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.
True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)
The latest fashion appears to be walking along, talking to someone next to you, about a metre apart. Not actually social distancing, but nicely blocking the pavement.
I've tried locally suggesting that people walking west go on the north side of the road, east on the south etc.
An off-topic flashback to my schooldays, and one teacher helping to manage staircase congestion with her cry of, "up on the left; down on the right".
If that really is true, Trump has got away with blue murder. I do hope you are right, but colour me skeptical!
Is that his strategy? Murder all the blues?
Very good!
Don’t know about ‘very good,’ but it would be one way of winning,
Wouldn’t put it past him either.
Hmm! Very good was merely applauding you rather astutely noting a potential methodology for Trump achieving further electoral domination, rather than endorsing it as a good idea. My mistake.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
One would hope that the droplets potentially containing the virus don't travel as far as vaping exhaust fumes, which are an aerosol if I understand correctly.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
One would hope that the droplets potentially containing the virus don't travel as far as vaping exhaust fumes, which are an aerosol if I understand correctly.
No the aerosols are the ones who exhale not caring who is near to them.
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
Fair point, and it was Morgan asking it. The answer was interesting nonetheless.
During the Black Death, when England was in disarray, the Scots had the bright idea of invading. So they amassed a huge army on the Northumbrian border.
Then the plague hit their camp and 5,000 died. So the rest ran for their lives, back to every corner of Scotland.
And that is the story of how one-third of Scots died in just nine months, while in England it took over two years for the numbers to reach that level.
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Morning SO. Unfortunately the official figures don't seem to reflect what I am seeing on the ground. We are certainly seeing people now who are dying outside of hospital and I now know of two people personally who have passed away in the last week. It is not that the figures are wrong, just that they are not measuring the right thing. Deaths in the community seem to me from my limited view to be far more significant than is being reported so far.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
One would hope that the droplets potentially containing the virus don't travel as far as vaping exhaust fumes, which are an aerosol if I understand correctly.
There aren't many good published studies of this. Most deal with either larger droplets, or small aerosolised ones as separate phenomena. The reality is that fast outbreaths produce turbulent clouds containing droplets of all sizes, and it's very complex (aka no one really knows).
If that really is true, Trump has got away with blue murder. I do hope you are right, but colour me skeptical!
Is that his strategy? Murder all the blues?
Very good!
Don’t know about ‘very good,’ but it would be one way of winning,
Wouldn’t put it past him either.
Hmm! Very good was merely applauding you rather astutely noting a potential methodology for Trump achieving further electoral domination, rather than endorsing it as a good idea. My mistake.
It was, shall we say, a trifle ambiguous.
And naturally my legendary modesty prevented me from thinking it might be praise for my awesomeness...
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Morning SO. Unfortunately the official figures don't seem to reflect what I am seeing on the ground. We are certainly seeing people now who are dying outside of hospital and I now know of two people personally who have passed away in the last week. It is not that the figures are wrong, just that they are not measuring the right thing. Deaths in the community seem to me from my limited view to be far more significant than is being reported so far.
Hence ONS recording numbers - IIRC they are collating all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
One would hope that the droplets potentially containing the virus don't travel as far as vaping exhaust fumes, which are an aerosol if I understand correctly.
Most people who vape are aerosols, in all fairness.
If that really is true, Trump has got away with blue murder. I do hope you are right, but colour me skeptical!
Is that his strategy? Murder all the blues?
Very good!
Don’t know about ‘very good,’ but it would be one way of winning,
Wouldn’t put it past him either.
Hmm! Very good was merely applauding you rather astutely noting a potential methodology for Trump achieving further electoral domination, rather than endorsing it as a good idea. My mistake.
It was, shall we say, a trifle ambiguous.
And naturally my legendary modesty prevented me from thinking it might be praise for my awesomeness...
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Morning SO. Unfortunately the official figures don't seem to reflect what I am seeing on the ground. We are certainly seeing people now who are dying outside of hospital and I now know of two people personally who have passed away in the last week. It is not that the figures are wrong, just that they are not measuring the right thing. Deaths in the community seem to me from my limited view to be far more significant than is being reported so far.
Hence ONS recording numbers - IIRC they are collating all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned.
Yep we should be getting those today I believe for the week ending 27th March.
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
There was a story on the BBC yesterday - reporter in a COVID ward. Simple, factual. No "Look at me, all dressed up in operational kit, like a pro".
Please may I have some more, sir?
And he made a point in studio after that they'd donated PPE kit to the ward so they weren't depriving them of any. Well you could have given the one you were wearing too and stayed away altogether. And what's the BBC doing with ICU grade PPE anyway.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
Pumped full of testosterone and self-righteousness.
A toxic mix.
Didn’t realise there were so many black cab drivers on here!
"'ad that Isam in the back uv the cab the uvver day. Lovely geezer.
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
There was a story on the BBC yesterday - reporter in a COVID ward. Simple, factual. No "Look at me, all dressed up in operational kit, like a pro".
Please may I have some more, sir?
And he made a point in studio after that they'd donated PPE kit to the ward so they weren't depriving them of any. Well you could have given the one you were wearing too and stayed away altogether. And what's the BBC doing with ICU grade PPE anyway.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
Pumped full of testosterone and self-righteousness.
A toxic mix.
Didn’t realise there were so many black cab drivers on here!
"'ad that Isam in the back uv the cab the uvver day. Lovely geezer.
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Morning SO. Unfortunately the official figures don't seem to reflect what I am seeing on the ground. We are certainly seeing people now who are dying outside of hospital and I now know of two people personally who have passed away in the last week. It is not that the figures are wrong, just that they are not measuring the right thing. Deaths in the community seem to me from my limited view to be far more significant than is being reported so far.
Hence ONS recording numbers - IIRC they are collating all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned.
On a slightly different subject, the daily figures for COVID hospital admissions seem to be two or three times higher than those for confirmed new cases. I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on why that is. A large number of "COVID admissions" that test negative? Only a fraction of COVID admissions being tested in the first place?
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
Pumped full of testosterone and self-righteousness.
A toxic mix.
Didn’t realise there were so many black cab drivers on here!
"'ad that Isam in the back uv the cab the uvver day. Lovely geezer.
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Probably due to someone returning to Shetland from far away and there being a consequent social gathering, surely?
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
Might be damned easy for him to lead on protecting workers’ rights and small businesses though if the stories I am coming across are in any way typical.
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
There was a story on the BBC yesterday - reporter in a COVID ward. Simple, factual. No "Look at me, all dressed up in operational kit, like a pro".
Please may I have some more, sir?
And he made a point in studio after that they'd donated PPE kit to the ward so they weren't depriving them of any. Well you could have given the one you were wearing too and stayed away altogether. And what's the BBC doing with ICU grade PPE anyway.
..and the PPE they acquired woild have to have caused a problem somewhere else in the chain.
And what's the BBC doing with ICU grade PPE anyway.
I did wonder that too, but thought it was a reasonable trade off for the medical staff to get out there just what their workplace looks like. And why you really, really don't want to take any chances with this bastard.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
Starmers campaign has to be the equivalent of “and now win the peace”.
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
Fair point, and it was Morgan asking it. The answer was interesting nonetheless.
During the Black Death, when England was in disarray, the Scots had the bright idea of invading. So they amassed a huge army on the Northumbrian border.
Then the plague hit their camp and 5,000 died. So the rest ran for their lives, back to every corner of Scotland.
And that is the story of how one-third of Scots died in just nine months, while in England it took over two years for the numbers to reach that level.
When I was out yesterday on normally busy roads now unnervingly quiet I suddenly started remembering the end of the novel "Arc Light" by Eric L. Harry where on a beautiful sunny day Russian MIRV's started streaking down through the skies towards America's almost deserted cities...
If Putin truly was a demagogue, attacking the west when it was massively distracted by the plague might seem like a good idea. Hopefully despite his bareback bear-riding ideals I hope he isn't that crazy.
I hope now that everyone can understand that the "herd immunity strategy" of quickly getting to 60-70% immunity and only locking down on retirees would also have come with heavy economic consequences.
Doctors and nurses are dying, prime ministers are removed from the work force with a nasty illness. Their families are worried. This would affect many professions and workers. The current disruptions due to the disease itself would be much worse over the next couple of months without full social distancing.
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
There was a story on the BBC yesterday - reporter in a COVID ward. Simple, factual. No "Look at me, all dressed up in operational kit, like a pro".
Please may I have some more, sir?
And he made a point in studio after that they'd donated PPE kit to the ward so they weren't depriving them of any. Well you could have given the one you were wearing too and stayed away altogether. And what's the BBC doing with ICU grade PPE anyway.
Resources are scarce and the decision didn't look easy but that was a hard hitting piece and justified the use of PPE for the BBC reporter. I think it was OK to do on balance.
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Morning SO. Unfortunately the official figures don't seem to reflect what I am seeing on the ground. We are certainly seeing people now who are dying outside of hospital and I now know of two people personally who have passed away in the last week. It is not that the figures are wrong, just that they are not measuring the right thing. Deaths in the community seem to me from my limited view to be far more significant than is being reported so far.
Hence ONS recording numbers - IIRC they are collating all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned.
On a slightly different subject, the daily figures for COVID hospital admissions seem to be two or three times higher than those for confirmed new cases. I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on why that is. A large number of "COVID admissions" that test negative? Only a fraction of COVID admissions being tested in the first place?
That, or the normal delay in getting results through.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
One would hope that the droplets potentially containing the virus don't travel as far as vaping exhaust fumes, which are an aerosol if I understand correctly.
There aren't many good published studies of this. Most deal with either larger droplets, or small aerosolised ones as separate phenomena. The reality is that fast outbreaths produce turbulent clouds containing droplets of all sizes, and it's very complex (aka no one really knows).
You mean studies specifically in relation to this virus? There seems to be a substantial body of research on droplet sizes in exhaled breaths, and of course the physics of their motion is well understood.
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
Fair point, and it was Morgan asking it. The answer was interesting nonetheless.
During the Black Death, when England was in disarray, the Scots had the bright idea of invading. So they amassed a huge army on the Northumbrian border.
Then the plague hit their camp and 5,000 died. So the rest ran for their lives, back to every corner of Scotland.
And that is the story of how one-third of Scots died in just nine months, while in England it took over two years for the numbers to reach that level.
When I was out yesterday on normally busy roads now unnervingly quiet I suddenly started remembering the end of the novel "Arc Light" by Eric L. Harry where on a beautiful sunny day Russian MIRV's started streaking down through the skies towards America's almost deserted cities...
If Putin truly was a demagogue, attacking the west when it was massively distracted by the plague might seem like a good idea. Hopefully despite his bareback bear-riding ideals I hope he isn't that crazy.
Across Western Europe, which was the epicentre, certainly, but Russia today reports its highest number of cases and deaths, likewise Mexico, probably other places too. In the US it may be that New York has peaked, but that the virus is still gaining momentum elsewhere.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
It all depends on how Boris shows his gratitude, and I guess that means financially.
Reinfection could not occur in SARS-CoV-2 infected rhesus macaques https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1 An outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2), began in Wuhan and spread globally. Recently, it has been reported that discharged patients in China and elsewhere were testing positive after recovering. However, it remains unclear whether the convalescing patients have a risk of “relapse” or “reinfection”. The longitudinal tracking of re-exposure after the disappeared symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2-infected monkeys was performed in this study. We found that weight loss in some monkeys, viral replication mainly in nose, pharynx, lung and gut, as well as moderate interstitial pneumonia at 7 days post-infection (dpi) were clearly observed in rhesus monkeys after the primary infection. After the symptoms were alleviated and the specific antibody tested positively, the half of infected monkeys were rechallenged with the same dose of SARS-CoV-2 strain. Notably, neither viral loads in nasopharyngeal and anal swabs along timeline nor viral replication in all primary tissue compartments at 5 days post-reinfection (dpr) was found in re-exposed monkeys. Combined with the follow-up virologic, radiological and pathological findings, the monkeys with re-exposure showed no recurrence of COVID-19, similarly to the infected monkey without rechallenge. Taken together, our results indicated that the primary SARS-CoV-2 infection could protect from subsequent exposures, which have the reference of prognosis of the disease and vital implications for vaccine design...
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Morning SO. Unfortunately the official figures don't seem to reflect what I am seeing on the ground. We are certainly seeing people now who are dying outside of hospital and I now know of two people personally who have passed away in the last week. It is not that the figures are wrong, just that they are not measuring the right thing. Deaths in the community seem to me from my limited view to be far more significant than is being reported so far.
Hence ONS recording numbers - IIRC they are collating all deaths where COVID19 is mentioned.
On a slightly different subject, the daily figures for COVID hospital admissions seem to be two or three times higher than those for confirmed new cases. I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on why that is. A large number of "COVID admissions" that test negative? Only a fraction of COVID admissions being tested in the first place?
That, or the normal delay in getting results through.
I know of someone hospitalised yesterday and put on a COVID ward - no test results yet though
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
Fair point, and it was Morgan asking it. The answer was interesting nonetheless.
During the Black Death, when England was in disarray, the Scots had the bright idea of invading. So they amassed a huge army on the Northumbrian border.
Then the plague hit their camp and 5,000 died. So the rest ran for their lives, back to every corner of Scotland.
And that is the story of how one-third of Scots died in just nine months, while in England it took over two years for the numbers to reach that level.
Same as the 1918-19 flu pandemic. Concentrate sick troops in training camps, send them to spread it round the trenches, then end the war and send them back all round the world.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
In this instance Starmer is a lucky general because there’s 4 years until the next GE. If Boris pulls through (which, I reiterate I am desperately willing him to do) he will likely have a significant boost to his popularity and political strength. 4 years does give time for that to fade, however.
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
There was a story on the BBC yesterday - reporter in a COVID ward. Simple, factual. No "Look at me, all dressed up in operational kit, like a pro".
Please may I have some more, sir?
And he made a point in studio after that they'd donated PPE kit to the ward so they weren't depriving them of any. Well you could have given the one you were wearing too and stayed away altogether. And what's the BBC doing with ICU grade PPE anyway.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
god I hate vaping, since we're moaning about pet peeves this morning. The sickly sweet smell of much if it is more of putting the regular smoke.
While I dislike it strongly, it has probably saved the lives of a number of people I know - taking them from heavy smokers to nothing, via the taper off, diluting the amount of nicotine etc..
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
One would hope that the droplets potentially containing the virus don't travel as far as vaping exhaust fumes, which are an aerosol if I understand correctly.
There aren't many good published studies of this. Most deal with either larger droplets, or small aerosolised ones as separate phenomena. The reality is that fast outbreaths produce turbulent clouds containing droplets of all sizes, and it's very complex (aka no one really knows).
You mean studies specifically in relation to this virus? There seems to be a substantial body of research on droplet sizes in exhaled breaths, and of course the physics of their motion is well understood.
Both. As it involves turbulent flow, and the interaction of moist air with surrounding atmosphere, I'm skeptical the physics is well understood. But would be very happy to be proved wrong.
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
There was a story on the BBC yesterday - reporter in a COVID ward. Simple, factual. No "Look at me, all dressed up in operational kit, like a pro".
Please may I have some more, sir?
And he made a point in studio after that they'd donated PPE kit to the ward so they weren't depriving them of any. Well you could have given the one you were wearing too and stayed away altogether. And what's the BBC doing with ICU grade PPE anyway.
Resources are scarce and the decision didn't look easy but that was a hard hitting piece and justified the use of PPE for the BBC reporter. I think it was OK to do on balance.
One of the most interesting departments at the beeb was the one that kitted out correspondents for hostile environments. Incredibly professional. They had all the stuff. I imagine they’re heavily involved.
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
Fair point, and it was Morgan asking it. The answer was interesting nonetheless.
During the Black Death, when England was in disarray, the Scots had the bright idea of invading. So they amassed a huge army on the Northumbrian border.
Then the plague hit their camp and 5,000 died. So the rest ran for their lives, back to every corner of Scotland.
And that is the story of how one-third of Scots died in just nine months, while in England it took over two years for the numbers to reach that level.
When I was out yesterday on normally busy roads now unnervingly quiet I suddenly started remembering the end of the novel "Arc Light" by Eric L. Harry where on a beautiful sunny day Russian MIRV's started streaking down through the skies towards America's almost deserted cities...
If Putin truly was a demagogue, attacking the west when it was massively distracted by the plague might seem like a good idea. Hopefully despite his bareback bear-riding ideals I hope he isn't that crazy.
Putin is not that crazy. The question is what happens when Russia's president-for-life reaches old age and loses a few marbles.
But short of attacking the West, it would not be too surprising if there were an uptick in Russian aircraft and submarines probing Western defences during this crisis, not to mention cyberwarfare.
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average.
Of the deaths registered in Week 13, 539 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", which is 4.8% of all deaths; this compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12.
This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.
Of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
Starmers campaign has to be the equivalent of “and now win the peace”.
With a bit of luck, we'll be three full years into said peace by then.
I guess there's not too many posters who remember how prominently the formation of the NHS featured in Labour's 1945 election campaign.
I suppose if we did get halfway to herd immunity in this first wave, one good thing would be a higher level of immunity among those too stupid to obey the rules.
Interesting Spanish article on the slow stages back to 'normality' after the peak and subsequent decline of the virus. The gist is: very slow return with continues isolation for all risk groups well into the summer and beyond. Slow return to work, even slower re-opening of tourist centres, bars, restaurants , etc. In short no return to normality much beyond getting more people back to work who can do so relatively safely. Remember, the UK is signficantly further back down the road than Spain and Italy.
Against that there is recent evidence from China that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms. Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
The almost global lockdown applies the 'precautionary principle' to the whole of society and economy at a staggering cost. The uncertain trade-off between economic/social damage and deaths/respiratory morbidity surely needs modification and revision as we learn more facts like these. The Swedish approach is often called an 'experiment', but we are all experimenting with this known unknown. What is sure is that strict adherence to the precautionary principle will be seen retrospectively as a deviation from optimal treatment of the pandemic. Hindsight will be a wonderful thing.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
We might not have an economy left to pay for the NHS if we don't take a balanced approach to lifting the lockdown.
Certainly we can't afford a Labour government for at least another decade.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Agreed. We have been going out for walks. Perhaps 50% of people are even bothering. I think they view it as 'only a few seconds' as being okay.
We've been crossing the road, and trying to plan well in advance before the situation even arises. Its remarkable how quick even walkers come up to you. Its equally remarkable how half of them don't adjust their path or speed at all to allow you to cross over (because there are still cars on the road).
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
Fair point, and it was Morgan asking it. The answer was interesting nonetheless.
During the Black Death, when England was in disarray, the Scots had the bright idea of invading. So they amassed a huge army on the Northumbrian border.
Then the plague hit their camp and 5,000 died. So the rest ran for their lives, back to every corner of Scotland.
And that is the story of how one-third of Scots died in just nine months, while in England it took over two years for the numbers to reach that level.
When I was out yesterday on normally busy roads now unnervingly quiet I suddenly started remembering the end of the novel "Arc Light" by Eric L. Harry where on a beautiful sunny day Russian MIRV's started streaking down through the skies towards America's almost deserted cities...
If Putin truly was a demagogue, attacking the west when it was massively distracted by the plague might seem like a good idea. Hopefully despite his bareback bear-riding ideals I hope he isn't that crazy.
Putin is not that crazy. The question is what happens when Russia's president-for-life reaches old age and loses a few marbles.
But short of attacking the West, it would not be too surprising if there were an uptick in Russian aircraft and submarines probing Western defences during this crisis, not to mention cyberwarfare.
Their subs have been at it in the Channel since this crisis started. The RN is out doing its best to chase them away.
1. Those going into ICU with C-19 are not any more averagely obese than the general population (see figure 6, page 6). 2. Those with high BMIs are only marginally less likely to survive ICU (see table 5, page 14). 3. Only a small proportion of ICU patients (circa 10%) have severe comorbidities (table 1, page 4) 4. The presence of severe comorbidities doesn't seem to impact the outcome significantly (table 5, page 14). 5. Survival rate is only 50% so far (but that's based on conclusions for 690 patients out of 2249 - the other 1559 patients were still in ICU when the report was written). Not sure if this last point is a surprise tbh.
Interesting Spanish article on the slow stages back to 'normality' after the peak and subsequent decline of the virus. The gist is: very slow return with continues isolation for all risk groups well into the summer and beyond. Slow return to work, even slower re-opening of tourist centres, bars, restaurants , etc. In short no return to normality much beyond getting more people back to work who can do so relatively safely. Remember, the UK is signficantly further back down the road than Spain and Italy.
Against that there is recent evidence from China that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms. Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
The almost global lockdown applies the 'precautionary principle' to the whole of society and economy at a staggering cost. The uncertain trade-off between economic/social damage and deaths/respiratory morbidity surely needs modification and revision as we learn more facts like these. The Swedish approach is often called an 'experiment', but we are all experimenting with this known unknown. What is sure is that strict adherence to the precautionary principle will be seen retrospectively as a deviation from optimal treatment of the pandemic. Hindsight will be a wonderful thing.
I don't understand how they could draw any conclusion from those figures without knowing how those asymptomatic infections were detected.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
Starmers campaign has to be the equivalent of “and now win the peace”.
With a bit of luck, we'll be three full years into said peace by then.
I guess there's not too many posters who remember how prominently the formation of the NHS featured in Labour's 1945 election campaign.
Politics dominated by dealing with the economic mess, ‘never again’ being the theme of the public inquiry? and the role austerity played?
If I'm reading it correctly, it says that there's a large gap between expected and reported deaths in all four countries they looked at (including the UK) and this is only partially explained by reported Covid-19 deaths. The sample size for the UK is very small (because the reporting period used is a) short and b) a while ago) but as a starting point it seems reasonable to assume that reported Covid-19 deaths in the UK will be something like a third to a half of the whole picture.
Note all the usual obvious caveats about the difficulties of interpreting the data available, particularly about applicability across national borders.
The BBC is recycling Gavin and Stacy which is a great contribution to the morale of the nation
One of those programmes, like Will and Grace, where all the comedy is outside the named protagonists.
I‘ve only managed about 20 mins of G&S.
We watched the first episode of Gavin & Stacey at the weekend, having never seen any of it before. Absolutely loved it - plenty to look forward to there!
Jesus F##king Christ, Sky news are really outdoing the dickhead-ness this morning.
Kay Burley screaming at Dominic Raab to give him her an update on Boris condition. How would you like it if somebody screamed at you in the street to give an update on a loved ones condition who was in ICU. And what does she expect (and given the advice about not standing around chatting to people in the street), for him to give a detailed breakdown of his treatment plan?
Now Fat Head turning this into a process story and making this huge issue of not having an official "deputy PM" role and how the country can't possibly cope when you have a cabinet of equals.
FFS, we have the PM at death's door, his fiancee also ill with their child. Show some respect.
Also, I think the cabinet are big enough boys and girls that should there be disagreement that they will debate things and come to a collective agreement, you know like they do with all big decisions.
Interesting Spanish article on the slow stages back to 'normality' after the peak and subsequent decline of the virus. The gist is: very slow return with continues isolation for all risk groups well into the summer and beyond. Slow return to work, even slower re-opening of tourist centres, bars, restaurants , etc. In short no return to normality much beyond getting more people back to work who can do so relatively safely. Remember, the UK is signficantly further back down the road than Spain and Italy.
Against that there is recent evidence from China that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms. Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
The almost global lockdown applies the 'precautionary principle' to the whole of society and economy at a staggering cost. The uncertain trade-off between economic/social damage and deaths/respiratory morbidity surely needs modification and revision as we learn more facts like these. The Swedish approach is often called an 'experiment', but we are all experimenting with this known unknown. What is sure is that strict adherence to the precautionary principle will be seen retrospectively as a deviation from optimal treatment of the pandemic. Hindsight will be a wonderful thing.
I don't understand how they could draw any conclusion from those figures without knowing how those asymptomatic infections were detected.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
We might not have an economy left to pay for the NHS if we don't take a balanced approach to lifting the lockdown.
Certainly we can't afford a Labour government for at least another decade.
Interesting Spanish article on the slow stages back to 'normality' after the peak and subsequent decline of the virus. The gist is: very slow return with continues isolation for all risk groups well into the summer and beyond. Slow return to work, even slower re-opening of tourist centres, bars, restaurants , etc. In short no return to normality much beyond getting more people back to work who can do so relatively safely. Remember, the UK is signficantly further back down the road than Spain and Italy.
Against that there is recent evidence from China that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms. Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
The almost global lockdown applies the 'precautionary principle' to the whole of society and economy at a staggering cost. The uncertain trade-off between economic/social damage and deaths/respiratory morbidity surely needs modification and revision as we learn more facts like these. The Swedish approach is often called an 'experiment', but we are all experimenting with this known unknown. What is sure is that strict adherence to the precautionary principle will be seen retrospectively as a deviation from optimal treatment of the pandemic. Hindsight will be a wonderful thing.
I don't understand how they could draw any conclusion from those figures without knowing how those asymptomatic infections were detected.
Jesus F##king Christ, Sky news are really outdoing the dickhead-ness this morning.
Kay Burley screaming at Dominic Raab to give him her an update on Boris condition. How would you like it if somebody screamed at you in the street to give an update on a loved ones condition who was in ICU.
Now Fat Head turning this into a process story and making this huge issue of not having an official "deputy PM" role and how the country can't possibly cope when you have a cabinet of equals.
FFS, we have the PM at death's door, his fiancee also ill with there child. Show some respect.
Also, I think the cabinet are big enough boys and girls that should there be disagreement that they will debate things and come to a collective agreement, you know like they do with all big decisions.
In all seriousness they need to have a separate briefing just on the PM's health.
Otherwise the other briefing will be dominated (ruined) by that topic.
Kay Burley screaming at Dominic Raab to give him her an update on Boris condition. How would you like it if somebody screamed at you in the street to give an update on a loved ones condition who was in ICU.
I try to follow British politics but I am so out of the loop here, I had no idea they had that kind of relationship
Kay Burley screaming at Dominic Raab to give him her an update on Boris condition. How would you like it if somebody screamed at you in the street to give an update on a loved ones condition who was in ICU.
I try to follow British politics but I am so out of the loop here, I had no idea they had that kind of relationship
To be fair, I think Boris has bonked a significant proportion of the female journalists during his time.
Interesting Spanish article on the slow stages back to 'normality' after the peak and subsequent decline of the virus. The gist is: very slow return with continues isolation for all risk groups well into the summer and beyond. Slow return to work, even slower re-opening of tourist centres, bars, restaurants , etc. In short no return to normality much beyond getting more people back to work who can do so relatively safely. Remember, the UK is signficantly further back down the road than Spain and Italy.
Against that there is recent evidence from China that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms. Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
The almost global lockdown applies the 'precautionary principle' to the whole of society and economy at a staggering cost. The uncertain trade-off between economic/social damage and deaths/respiratory morbidity surely needs modification and revision as we learn more facts like these. The Swedish approach is often called an 'experiment', but we are all experimenting with this known unknown. What is sure is that strict adherence to the precautionary principle will be seen retrospectively as a deviation from optimal treatment of the pandemic. Hindsight will be a wonderful thing.
I think now that the government is understandably distracted, and that any evidence coming from new scientific studies may be ignored in the short term. I have been reading The TImes newspaper, and recent articles have shown that there is considerable debate among scientists about COVID including the impact and effectiveness of social distancing and estimates of the number of people who have been infected.
I would like the government to explain, where scientists disagree, how the government decides on which scientists to listen to, and on what basis scientists are chosen to work on the government's advisory panels. How is a consensus arrived at, and do ministers intervene and affect the final decision and if so on what basis?
At times it is hard to put aside short-term pressures to analyse the evidence, such as it is, but this will be needed later in this situation.
I wish Boris Johnson all the best for a full recovery.
Jesus F##king Christ, Sky news are really outdoing the dickhead-ness this morning.
Kay Burley screaming at Dominic Raab to give him her an update on Boris condition. How would you like it if somebody screamed at you in the street to give an update on a loved ones condition who was in ICU. And what does she expect (and given the advice about not standing around chatting to people in the street), for him to give a detailed breakdown of his treatment plan?
Now Fat Head turning this into a process story and making this huge issue of not having an official "deputy PM" role and how the country can't possibly cope when you have a cabinet of equals.
FFS, we have the PM at death's door, his fiancee also ill with their child. Show some respect.
Also, I think the cabinet are big enough boys and girls that should there be disagreement that they will debate things and come to a collective agreement, you know like they do with all big decisions.
Asking about the health I get, though as mr meeks noted since hes now not in the chain of command as it were we dont need a blow by blow.
The second point is just dumb. People seem intent on expanding everything into a constitutional quagmire when it's not that complicated and easily sorted.
‘Before the virus hit Europe, Italy sent tons of PPE to China to help China protect its own population,’ the administration official explained. ‘China then has sent Italian PPE back to Italy — some of it, not even all of it … and charged them for it.’
China taking advantage of Italy’s generosity is just the latest example of its disastrous diplomacy in the wake of the pandemic. Much of the supplies and testing kits China has sold to other countries have turned out to be defective. Spain had to return 50,000 quick-testing kits to China after discovering that they were faulty. In some cases, instead of apologizing or fixing the issue, China has blamed its defective equipment on others. China condescendingly told the Netherlands to ‘double-check the instructions’ on its masks, for example, after the Netherlands complained that half of the masks they were sent did not meet safety standards.
Jesus F##king Christ, Sky news are really outdoing the dickhead-ness this morning.
Kay Burley screaming at Dominic Raab to give him her an update on Boris condition. How would you like it if somebody screamed at you in the street to give an update on a loved ones condition who was in ICU. And what does she expect (and given the advice about not standing around chatting to people in the street), for him to give a detailed breakdown of his treatment plan?
Now Fat Head turning this into a process story and making this huge issue of not having an official "deputy PM" role and how the country can't possibly cope when you have a cabinet of equals.
FFS, we have the PM at death's door, his fiancee also ill with their child. Show some respect.
Also, I think the cabinet are big enough boys and girls that should there be disagreement that they will debate things and come to a collective agreement, you know like they do with all big decisions.
Asking about the health I get, though as mr meeks noted since hes now not in the chain of command as it were we dont need a blow by blow.
Not screaming in the street at the acting PM it isn't. During the briefing at noon or at the press conference yes.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
We might not have an economy left to pay for the NHS if we don't take a balanced approach to lifting the lockdown.
Certainly we can't afford a Labour government for at least another decade.
over verbose. the last 5 words are not required.
You think it is possible for them to spend (and commit to spend) more than this govt? You may not have noticed, but the current officeholders are hosing money all over the place and even pre-lockdown, Boris was being accused of implementing Corbyn/McDonnell's policies
The BBC is recycling Gavin and Stacy which is a great contribution to the morale of the nation
One of those programmes, like Will and Grace, where all the comedy is outside the named protagonists.
I‘ve only managed about 20 mins of G&S.
It is well written and well crafted, but I guess it is down to personal preference. It is the opposite end of the scale to Mrs Brown's Boys which is neither.
Kay Burley screaming at Dominic Raab to give him her an update on Boris condition. How would you like it if somebody screamed at you in the street to give an update on a loved ones condition who was in ICU. And what does she expect (and given the advice about not standing around chatting to people in the street), for him to give a detailed breakdown of his treatment plan?
Loved one? I highly doubt Raabocop puts Johnson in that category.
Interesting Spanish article on the slow stages back to 'normality' after the peak and subsequent decline of the virus. The gist is: very slow return with continues isolation for all risk groups well into the summer and beyond. Slow return to work, even slower re-opening of tourist centres, bars, restaurants , etc. In short no return to normality much beyond getting more people back to work who can do so relatively safely. Remember, the UK is signficantly further back down the road than Spain and Italy.
Against that there is recent evidence from China that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms. Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
The almost global lockdown applies the 'precautionary principle' to the whole of society and economy at a staggering cost. The uncertain trade-off between economic/social damage and deaths/respiratory morbidity surely needs modification and revision as we learn more facts like these. The Swedish approach is often called an 'experiment', but we are all experimenting with this known unknown. What is sure is that strict adherence to the precautionary principle will be seen retrospectively as a deviation from optimal treatment of the pandemic. Hindsight will be a wonderful thing.
I think now that the government is understandably distracted, and that any evidence coming from new scientific studies may be ignored in the short term. I have been reading The TImes newspaper, and recent articles have shown that there is considerable debate among scientists about COVID including the impact and effectiveness of social distancing and estimates of the number of people who have been infected.
I would like the government to explain, where scientists disagree, how the government decides on which scientists to listen to, and on what basis scientists are chosen to work on the government's advisory panels. How is a consensus arrived at, and do ministers intervene and affect the final decision and if so on what basis?
At times it is hard to put aside short-term pressures to analyse the evidence, such as it is, but this will be needed later in this situation.
I wish Boris Johnson all the best for a full recovery.
I would call that a speculation, and we can't work on the basis of speculations.
The author admits that himself.
"Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. "
"Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine". Hmmm.
Being waspish, perhaps "Evidence Abused Medicine" would be more accurate here.
The BBC is recycling Gavin and Stacy which is a great contribution to the morale of the nation
One of those programmes, like Will and Grace, where all the comedy is outside the named protagonists.
I‘ve only managed about 20 mins of G&S.
It is well written and well crafted, but I guess it is down to personal preference. It is the opposite end of the scale to Mrs Brown's Boys which is neither.
Anybody who likes Mrs Brown's Boys have even less taste than those that love nothing more than to eat pineapple pizza while watching Radiohead live at Glastonbury...
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
Starmers campaign has to be the equivalent of “and now win the peace”.
With a bit of luck, we'll be three full years into said peace by then.
I guess there's not too many posters who remember how prominently the formation of the NHS featured in Labour's 1945 election campaign.
Politics dominated by dealing with the economic mess, ‘never again’ being the theme of the public inquiry? and the role austerity played?
I can't see much mileage in trying to re-open the austerity argument; that's been comprehensively won already.
I fear the public inquiry will wind up focusing much of its ire on government scientists, or "boffins" as the tabloids will insist on calling them. Politicians, civil servants and the like at least tend to have some experience at setting themselves up for defence against future scrutiny from things like that; I don't know that epidemiologists do.
I sympathise; it's much easier modelling hypothetical things where no-one dies if you're wrong the first few (hundred) times.
Comments
What I was referring to was that it might be an interesting indicator of the distances, and patterns of "clouds" from exhalation
I am now in my late 50s, never smoked and try my best but I am overweight and it is a worry. Recently I have been burning off 3k+ calories a day but WFH surrounded by snacks is not making this easy.
* Or anti clockwise
Wouldn’t put it past him either.
(Not that he should be touting any drug at all.)
Hydroxychloroquine-COVID-19 study did not meet publishing society’s “expected standard”
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/04/06/hydroxychlorine-covid-19-study-did-not-meet-publishing-societys-expected-standard/
Some Swedish hospitals discontinue use over worries about adverse drug reactions:
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/carl-40-fick-kramp-och-syn-problem-av-coronamedicin/
Then the plague hit their camp and 5,000 died. So the rest ran for their lives, back to every corner of Scotland.
And that is the story of how one-third of Scots died in just nine months, while in England it took over two years for the numbers to reach that level.
Most deal with either larger droplets, or small aerosolised ones as separate phenomena. The reality is that fast outbreaths produce turbulent clouds containing droplets of all sizes, and it's very complex (aka no one really knows).
And naturally my legendary modesty prevented me from thinking it might be praise for my awesomeness...
Not much of a tipper though...."
If Putin truly was a demagogue, attacking the west when it was massively distracted by the plague might seem like a good idea. Hopefully despite his bareback bear-riding ideals I hope he isn't that crazy.
Doctors and nurses are dying, prime ministers are removed from the work force with a nasty illness. Their families are worried. This would affect many professions and workers. The current disruptions due to the disease itself would be much worse over the next couple of months without full social distancing.
If ever there were a spring day so perfect,
so uplifted by a warm intermittent breeze
that it made you want to throw
open all the windows in the house
and unlatch the door to the canary's cage,
indeed, rip the little door from its jamb,
a day when the cool brick paths
and the garden bursting with peonies
seemed so etched in sunlight
that you felt like taking
a hammer to the glass paperweight
on the living room end table,
releasing the inhabitants
from their snow-covered cottage
so they could walk out,
holding hands and squinting
into this larger dome of blue and white,
well, today is just that kind of day.
Can be found in tonic water, and not inactivated by gin.
Reinfection could not occur in SARS-CoV-2 infected rhesus macaques
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1
An outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2), began in Wuhan and spread globally. Recently, it has been reported that discharged patients in China and elsewhere were testing positive after recovering. However, it remains unclear whether the convalescing patients have a risk of “relapse” or “reinfection”. The longitudinal tracking of re-exposure after the disappeared symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2-infected monkeys was performed in this study. We found that weight loss in some monkeys, viral replication mainly in nose, pharynx, lung and gut, as well as moderate interstitial pneumonia at 7 days post-infection (dpi) were clearly observed in rhesus monkeys after the primary infection. After the symptoms were alleviated and the specific antibody tested positively, the half of infected monkeys were rechallenged with the same dose of SARS-CoV-2 strain. Notably, neither viral loads in nasopharyngeal and anal swabs along timeline nor viral replication in all primary tissue compartments at 5 days post-reinfection (dpr) was found in re-exposed monkeys. Combined with the follow-up virologic, radiological and pathological findings, the monkeys with re-exposure showed no recurrence of COVID-19, similarly to the infected monkey without rechallenge. Taken together, our results indicated that the primary SARS-CoV-2 infection could protect from subsequent exposures, which have the reference of prognosis of the disease and vital implications for vaccine design...
As it involves turbulent flow, and the interaction of moist air with surrounding atmosphere, I'm skeptical the physics is well understood. But would be very happy to be proved wrong.
But short of attacking the West, it would not be too surprising if there were an uptick in Russian aircraft and submarines probing Western defences during this crisis, not to mention cyberwarfare.
Of the deaths registered in Week 13, 539 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", which is 4.8% of all deaths; this compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12.
This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.
Of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.
https://tinyurl.com/yx52jyld
I guess there's not too many posters who remember how prominently the formation of the NHS featured in Labour's 1945 election campaign.
1. Herd immunity and lock down, no going on attack against covid
2. Take people into care homes without testing.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sacrificing-the-elderly-care-homes-asked-to-take-covid-19-patients-11969661
Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’”
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
The almost global lockdown applies the 'precautionary principle' to the whole of society and economy at a staggering cost. The uncertain trade-off between economic/social damage and deaths/respiratory morbidity surely needs modification and revision as we learn more facts like these. The Swedish approach is often called an 'experiment', but we are all experimenting with this known unknown. What is sure is that strict adherence to the precautionary principle will be seen retrospectively as a deviation from optimal treatment of the pandemic. Hindsight will be a wonderful thing.
Certainly we can't afford a Labour government for at least another decade.
We've been crossing the road, and trying to plan well in advance before the situation even arises. Its remarkable how quick even walkers come up to you. Its equally remarkable how half of them don't adjust their path or speed at all to allow you to cross over (because there are still cars on the road).
https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19
Key surprises for me are:
1. Those going into ICU with C-19 are not any more averagely obese than the general population (see figure 6, page 6).
2. Those with high BMIs are only marginally less likely to survive ICU (see table 5, page 14).
3. Only a small proportion of ICU patients (circa 10%) have severe comorbidities (table 1, page 4)
4. The presence of severe comorbidities doesn't seem to impact the outcome significantly (table 5, page 14).
5. Survival rate is only 50% so far (but that's based on conclusions for 690 patients out of 2249 - the other 1559 patients were still in ICU when the report was written). Not sure if this last point is a surprise tbh.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lbsbusinessstrategyreview/2020/04/06/how-many-people-have-really-died-from-covid-19/#42970f3867f7
If I'm reading it correctly, it says that there's a large gap between expected and reported deaths in all four countries they looked at (including the UK) and this is only partially explained by reported Covid-19 deaths. The sample size for the UK is very small (because the reporting period used is a) short and b) a while ago) but as a starting point it seems reasonable to assume that reported Covid-19 deaths in the UK will be something like a third to a half of the whole picture.
Note all the usual obvious caveats about the difficulties of interpreting the data available, particularly about applicability across national borders.
Kay Burley screaming at Dominic Raab to give him her an update on Boris condition. How would you like it if somebody screamed at you in the street to give an update on a loved ones condition who was in ICU. And what does she expect (and given the advice about not standing around chatting to people in the street), for him to give a detailed breakdown of his treatment plan?
Now Fat Head turning this into a process story and making this huge issue of not having an official "deputy PM" role and how the country can't possibly cope when you have a cabinet of equals.
FFS, we have the PM at death's door, his fiancee also ill with their child. Show some respect.
Also, I think the cabinet are big enough boys and girls that should there be disagreement that they will debate things and come to a collective agreement, you know like they do with all big decisions.
Otherwise the other briefing will be dominated (ruined) by that topic.
I would like the government to explain, where scientists disagree, how the government decides on which scientists to listen to, and on what basis scientists are chosen to work on the government's advisory panels. How is a consensus arrived at, and do ministers intervene and affect the final decision and if so on what basis?
At times it is hard to put aside short-term pressures to analyse the evidence, such as it is, but this will be needed later in this situation.
I wish Boris Johnson all the best for a full recovery.
The second point is just dumb. People seem intent on expanding everything into a constitutional quagmire when it's not that complicated and easily sorted.
Bit of a beast this bug.
‘Before the virus hit Europe, Italy sent tons of PPE to China to help China protect its own population,’ the administration official explained. ‘China then has sent Italian PPE back to Italy — some of it, not even all of it … and charged them for it.’
China taking advantage of Italy’s generosity is just the latest example of its disastrous diplomacy in the wake of the pandemic. Much of the supplies and testing kits China has sold to other countries have turned out to be defective. Spain had to return 50,000 quick-testing kits to China after discovering that they were faulty. In some cases, instead of apologizing or fixing the issue, China has blamed its defective equipment on others. China condescendingly told the Netherlands to ‘double-check the instructions’ on its masks, for example, after the Netherlands complained that half of the masks they were sent did not meet safety standards.
https://spectator.us/italy-china-ppe-sold-coronavirus/
The author admits that himself.
"Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. "
"Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine". Hmmm.
Being waspish, perhaps "Evidence Abused Medicine" would be more accurate here.
News from Japan today not good
I fear the public inquiry will wind up focusing much of its ire on government scientists, or "boffins" as the tabloids will insist on calling them. Politicians, civil servants and the like at least tend to have some experience at setting themselves up for defence against future scrutiny from things like that; I don't know that epidemiologists do.
I sympathise; it's much easier modelling hypothetical things where no-one dies if you're wrong the first few (hundred) times.