On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.
I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.
Morning everyone. Giving up work was what triggered health problems for me.
I was running almost every day when this broke out.Took half a week off over this weekend, have just gone out for a 5k that quickly got caped at 3k. If nothing else I think good walks are needed when not running. At least for me. With my age/build/lifestyle...
I've gone from an hour at the gym two or three times a week to (almost) an hour's walk most days. I'm lucky, though, that we live in a small town and there are plenty of places where my wife and I can go for a walk and either not meet people, or be able to give them a wide berth. I feel very sorry indeed for people in flats or terraces, especially if they have children. And I feel very, very sorry for the 14-20 age group who should be developing their social relationships.
Being kept indoors all day with only a computer, tablet or terminal for company.
On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.
I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.
So I'm ok, having never started.
That was always my theory. The best theories are the convenient ones.
Fortunately after a middle age of indolence, I got a dog and started walking a lot more. Which has done wonders in late middle age, even though I do have some weight to lose (being in the apparently safest slightly overweight category).
I burn lots of calories lifting cat food off the shelf. There's not so much walking involved though.
On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
I really can't see how this kind of stuff helps. Better to prepare people for the possibility of a bad outcome.
I don’t know, sometimes a little positivity helps too.
On the face of it we know it’s bad - he’s in intensive care and he wouldn’t be there if he wasn’t at risk of dying from this thing. I don’t think it harms to try and look for positives in an inherently depressing time.
I agree about the 1950-style hoodwinking attempts by No.10. It has had the opposite effect from what they intended but I'm afraid it has been Boris' way of life: spin and bluster and obfuscation and downright lies.
That doesn't mean I don't now wish him well. I am desperately hoping he pulls through. If he does I suspect he may be a changed man.
Almost certainly. If he survives this, it may well be his epiphany.
I know that my year of cancer (two years if you include the pre-diagnosis decline, which is easy to see in hindsight but miss in reality) changed me beyond all recognition. Both physically and my personality. Entirely for the better.
I’ll never forget those doctors and nurses. I can see their faces and their mannerisms just as clearly as cherished childhood friends
Morning Stuart
hope you are well sir. Ae you still in Sweden and if so what is your take from inside the country on how they are handling it?
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.
I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.
It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.
I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.
Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.
I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.
We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.
Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'
Doctorss wear masks and gloves not to prevent themselves catching infections, but to prevent themselves being the source of infections to the patient.
The widespread use of masks by the public has the same utility, to prevent transmission rather than protect the wearer. Fully filtering masks have a different use.
On my quiet drives to work and back, I would estimate that of the people on the streets, around a third are wearing masks, mostly the south asian community. Many demonstrate poor technique, but I am not surprised at that. I have been trained on these things, the public has not.
I think the optimal strategy would be to encourage the public to wear masks, but hammer home the message that ordinary masks won't protect them.
Front line NHS workers might not be so keen on that optimisation.
I see the denial continues amongst the government over the trade negotiations with the EU,
When will this charade come to an end .
But this is probably the media’s fault. If there’s a delay they’ll be a delay. The media only keep asking about it to try and generate a headline. The Govt keep saying the same thing to avoid generating a headline. Which then means when the position changes it will generate an even bigger headline. It would be better if the media stopped asking, and allowed the Govt to plan through the timing. It’s not like it matters right now.
On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.
I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.
Morning everyone. Giving up work was what triggered health problems for me.
I was running almost every day when this broke out.Took half a week off over this weekend, have just gone out for a 5k that quickly got caped at 3k. If nothing else I think good walks are needed when not running. At least for me. With my age/build/lifestyle...
I've gone from an hour at the gym two or three times a week to (almost) an hour's walk most days. I'm lucky, though, that we live in a small town and there are plenty of places where my wife and I can go for a walk and either not meet people, or be able to give them a wide berth. I feel very sorry indeed for people in flats or terraces, especially if they have children. And I feel very, very sorry for the 14-20 age group who should be developing their social relationships.
I miss going for a drink after work with my colleagues. Social distancing can be quite a strain, even for us introverts.
A beautiful morning to have my porridge and tea in the garden, watching my cat stalking in the flower beds. I am fatalistic about this virus, and expect to catch it at some point, but it doesn't make me anxious, just more appreciative of the simple pleasures of life.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.
I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.
It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.
I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.
Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.
I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.
We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.
Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'
Absolute nonsense /
With respect I have been completely right about this virus all the way along, from the very start, and I'm right about masks. Everyone is falling into line. You will too. Eventually, though, in your case by the looks of it.
I've been hot onto this for years but that's probably because I spent 10 years living and working in Asia.
It's interesting as to why you and @eadric are so obsessed with being right.
Visionaries find idiots frustrating.
Just being honest.
I was on a leadership team a while back and we all took the usual temperament tests, Myers-Briggs and all that (cue someone to post an article by Nate Silver explaining why they are unreliable).
It was actually really useful to see that us strongly N types (Intuitives) do need the 'Computer-says-Nooooooo' types to keep us in check.
Visionaries like me can be a pain in the arse.
Even though we're right.
You are very funny at times and remember 'pride comes before a fall'
However, you have your own opinion on masks no doubt influenced by your time in the far east, but the truth is that the use of masks has not been proven and is not generally used in the west
You sneeze at 70mph and a mask is useless as the droplets explode all around your face and the vicinity, and of course if you wear a mask you must not touch it or fiddle with it at all.
Since late January I have been receiving medical assistance for an infection but latterly a problem which needs a scan and possibly an operation. I have had blood tests in the hospital, attended the A & E out of hours doctors at 1.00am on a Sunday morning, have been in and out of the surgery from my car as the doctor/nurse calls me straight into their consulting room, and I can say I have not seen a mask on anyone in all these environments including A & E, apart from a mother, father and child in the out of hours
You are expressing a far east attitude and it is far from convincing that you are right, but of course we should respect your view as you should others
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
Pumped full of testosterone and self-righteousness.
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.
I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.
So I'm ok, having never started.
That was always my theory. The best theories are the convenient ones.
Fortunately after a middle age of indolence, I got a dog and started walking a lot more. Which has done wonders in late middle age, even though I do have some weight to lose (being in the apparently safest slightly overweight category).
I walk a lot (and enjoy swimming too, even though my council have made the new pool a fishbowl) and occasionally cycle off road - but not like a twat.
I can't stand running, and I have a poor spine so don't do it. Gyms aren't for me either.
If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.
I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.
It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.
I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.
Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.
I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.
We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.
Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'
Absolute nonsense /
With respect I have been completely right about this virus all the way along, from the very start, and I'm right about masks. Everyone is falling into line. You will too. Eventually, though, in your case by the looks of it.
I've been hot onto this for years but that's probably because I spent 10 years living and working in Asia.
I agree the pressure to wear masks will win out in the end. Not because they help but because "something must be done".
Personally I'll listen to the science and the law, it is undecided at the moment. I am quite comfortable admitting I dont know the full science on masks because people who have studied relevant sciences all their life, in the best institutions also do not know. I really doubt people "know" just because they have lived in Asia.
He was very ill yesterday, when the message was "working from his hospital bed"
Spin is not helpful at this point
He’s no longer in the chain of command. Let him have his medical privacy now.
I think that's right. I wish him the very best of outcomes, but there's something obsessive about the whole country hovering around the bedside demanding instant updates. Once a day is fine, more is just the 24/7 agenda in another of its many pernicious forms.
On walking and fresh air being crucial, I think it's very much something one gets used to. I've had a few walks during the last couple of weeks, and eachtime felt relief at coming home rather than much pleasure in the walk. I don't usually go for walks, so it's a bit silly to start doing it now, even though I can see how it would become a real bulwark of life if one did it regularly. Right now it makes sense to batten down if we can.
Richard Tyndall - that's incredibnle public service, but you should definitely cut back. There are a LOT of volunteers out there now - have you asked the local Age Concern or County support centre if they can take some of the load off you? Quite apart from anything else, you need a backup in case you do fall ill.
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
I have seen plenty of people walking who quite simply make no accommodation for others. Wandering down the middle of the pavement. The shock and horror (and anger) when you shout at them, is quite enjoyable.
Markets today and yesterday are clearly in 'jump back in' mode. The flattening in Spain and Italy presumably encouraging people to spot the light at the end.
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.
Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?
Unpickupable!
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
I went for a run on unusually empty country roads the other day. Most cyclists were fine, a very few insisted on following their "line". What shocked me was that many cyclists do not move to the right for left hand bends. If there was a pedestrian the other side of the bend... (I normally run on the right but move over for right hand bends)
On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.
I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.
Morning everyone. Giving up work was what triggered health problems for me.
I was running almost every day when this broke out.Took half a week off over this weekend, have just gone out for a 5k that quickly got caped at 3k. If nothing else I think good walks are needed when not running. At least for me. With my age/build/lifestyle...
I've gone from an hour at the gym two or three times a week to (almost) an hour's walk most days. I'm lucky, though, that we live in a small town and there are plenty of places where my wife and I can go for a walk and either not meet people, or be able to give them a wide berth. I feel very sorry indeed for people in flats or terraces, especially if they have children. And I feel very, very sorry for the 14-20 age group who should be developing their social relationships.
I miss going for a drink after work with my colleagues. Social distancing can be quite a strain, even for us introverts.
A beautiful morning to have my porridge and tea in the garden, watching my cat stalking in the flower beds. I am fatalistic about this virus, and expect to catch it at some point, but it doesn't make me anxious, just more appreciative of the simple pleasures of life.
Hear, hear - well said Foxy.
Medical question. I read something yesterday from a doctor saying that a pattern that is emerging for many patients in his hospital is: gasping for breath (presumably due to mucus in lungs), oxygen given in small dose, OK for a while, gasping again, oxygen dose increased, ok for a while etc etc until patient can no longer take sufficient oxygen at all unaided.
Is this a pattern you see, and if so is it better for patients to regard the taking of the initial oxygen offer as a last resort? Maybe breathing excercises first?
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
I have seen plenty of people walking who quite simply make no accusation for others. Wandering down the middle of the pavement. The shock and horror (and anger) when you shout at them, is quite enjoyable.
Fine. But they haven't chosen to increase their speed so as to be anything other than wanderers. You can at least have a chance to change the encounter.
Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.
Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?
Unpickupable!
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"
+1. Personally I would just create a law banning any channel from showing more than 1000 hours of news a year. 24 hours news is like a lot of things a creator of bigger problems than it solves.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I agree about the 1950-style hoodwinking attempts by No.10. It has had the opposite effect from what they intended but I'm afraid it has been Boris' way of life: spin and bluster and obfuscation and downright lies.
That doesn't mean I don't now wish him well. I am desperately hoping he pulls through. If he does I suspect he may be a changed man.
Almost certainly. If he survives this, it may well be his epiphany.
I know that my year of cancer (two years if you include the pre-diagnosis decline, which is easy to see in hindsight but miss in reality) changed me beyond all recognition. Both physically and my personality. Entirely for the better.
I’ll never forget those doctors and nurses. I can see their faces and their mannerisms just as clearly as cherished childhood friends
Morning Stuart
hope you are well sir. Ae you still in Sweden and if so what is your take from inside the country on how they are handling it?
God morgon Richard!
Yes, I am in rude good health sir! Just worked double night shifts at the rail traffic control centre, helping to transport essential things like food, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, key workers and toilet rolls* around the continent.
My take on the fact that Sweden once again diverges from accepted wisdom? Dunno. I just listen to the experts. It’s all a question of balance. Saving the lives of as many (mainly elderly) as possible while not crushing the lives and the mental health of too many younger people. I suspect that Sweden has got the balance about right.
I worry about what all this is doing to the mental health of young adults, teenagers and children. Primary and middle-school children are at the top of the agenda here in Sweden, hence why schools, nursery and day care are all still up and running. Our youngest is off for Easter but then back at school next week.
3 out of the 4 adults in our household work (key industries: maritime, rail and primary education). The 4th has been sent home by her Scottish university and is actively seeking jobs (another interview this afternoon).
We have bought a puppy, to be delivered next week. We get our haircut. Visit dentist. The kids play in the sun. We take as many walks as we like and chill at the cafe.
I am a bit scared, but very few people here seem that bothered, and you are a product of your environment. My sister thinks we are all stark raving bonkers. If I admitted how scared I was people would think me a bit odd.
Tons of neighbours have lost their jobs or are on short-time working. I feel sorry for people close to pension that hadn’t reduced their exposure. I’m heavy on gold.
(*yes, bog roll is a huge export product from these parts)
Having your first child should be a joyful, shared experience with your partner, family and friends. It must be so awful for Carrie Symonds, pretty much alone, sick with worry, recovering from illness herself. All best wishes to her.
I agree about the 1950-style hoodwinking attempts by No.10. It has had the opposite effect from what they intended but I'm afraid it has been Boris' way of life: spin and bluster and obfuscation and downright lies.
That doesn't mean I don't now wish him well. I am desperately hoping he pulls through. If he does I suspect he may be a changed man.
Almost certainly. If he survives this, it may well be his epiphany.
I know that my year of cancer (two years if you include the pre-diagnosis decline, which is easy to see in hindsight but miss in reality) changed me beyond all recognition. Both physically and my personality. Entirely for the better.
I’ll never forget those doctors and nurses. I can see their faces and their mannerisms just as clearly as cherished childhood friends
Morning Stuart
hope you are well sir. Ae you still in Sweden and if so what is your take from inside the country on how they are handling it?
God morgon Richard!
Yes, I am in rude good health sir! Just worked double night shifts at the rail traffic control centre, helping to transport essential things like food, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, key workers and toilet rolls* around the continent.
My take on the fact that Sweden once again diverges from accepted wisdom? Dunno. I just listen to the experts. It’s all a question of balance. Saving the lives of as many (mainly elderly) as possible while not crushing the lives and the mental health of too many younger people. I suspect that Sweden has got the balance about right.
I worry about what all this is doing to the mental health of young adults, teenagers and children. Primary and middle-school children are at the top of the agenda here in Sweden, hence why schools, nursery and day care are all still up and running. Our youngest is off for Easter but then back at school next week.
3 out of the 4 adults in our household work (key industries: maritime, rail and primary education). The 4th has been sent home by her Scottish university and is actively seeking jobs (another interview this afternoon).
We have bought a puppy, to be delivered next week. We get our haircut. Visit dentist. The kids play in the sun. We take as many walks as we like and chill at the cafe.
I am a bit scared, but very few people here seem that bothered, and you are a product of your environment. My sister thinks we are all stark raving bonkers. If I admitted how scared I was people would think me a bit odd.
Tons of neighbours have lost their jobs or are on short-time working. I feel sorry for people close to pension that hadn’t reduced their exposure. I’m heavy on gold.
(*yes, bog roll is a huge export product from these parts)
You have some serious hard work coming your way for a few weeks with a puppy. You will look back on it one day and smile, but not always at the time!
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.
Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?
Unpickupable!
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"
Gove has just insisted he hasn't been on a ventilator. A question the morning minister will be asked daily.
I think that's right. I wish him the very best of outcomes, but there's something obsessive about the whole country hovering around the bedside demanding instant updates. Once a day is fine, more is just the 24/7 agenda in another of its many pernicious forms.
This is probably true. The issue remains Number 10 screwed up the messaging.
That flatly contradicts the message of the last week which was PM in control, full command of his brief.
If the message last week had been PM poorly, taking it easy, we might have been less shocked to hear he went from running the country to ICU in a single bound.
Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.
Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?
Unpickupable!
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"
+1. Personally I would just create a law banning any channel from showing more than 1000 hours of news a year. 24 hours news is like a lot of things a creator of bigger problems than it solves.
BBC has a choice, and an obligation to be balanced. I know these are not the times for it but I think BBC should direct its news team to produce at least a third good news stories on its 24 hr channel. The world is rarely as grim as the news paints it, and even in this crisis there are countless small examples of positivity that dont get shared as much as the fear and gloom.
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.
I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.
It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.
I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.
Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.
I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.
We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.
Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'
Absolute nonsense /
With respect I have been completely right about this virus all the way along, from the very start, and I'm right about masks. Everyone is falling into line. You will too. Eventually, though, in your case by the looks of it.
I've been hot onto this for years but that's probably because I spent 10 years living and working in Asia.
I agree the pressure to wear masks will win out in the end. Not because they help but because "something must be done".
Personally I'll listen to the science and the law, it is undecided at the moment. I am quite comfortable admitting I dont know the full science on masks because people who have studied relevant sciences all their life, in the best institutions also do not know. I really doubt people "know" just because they have lived in Asia.
Masks are not just about science. There are three other main issues. First is supply: there are simply not enough masks to go round so even if Joe Public should wear them, it might be best if the limited supply were directed to health and social care workers.
Second is that when people say there is no evidence the public would benefit, that may be because no-one ever bothered to research the question in any great depth. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, as the saying goes.
Third is that other countries, even in Europe and America, are inching towards public use of masks, so it is entirely legitimate for journalists on our behalf to raise the question.
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.
Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.
Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?
Unpickupable!
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"
+1. Personally I would just create a law banning any channel from showing more than 1000 hours of news a year. 24 hours news is like a lot of things a creator of bigger problems than it solves.
BBC has a choice, and an obligation to be balanced. I know these are not the times for it but I think BBC should direct its news team to produce at least a third good news stories on its 24 hr channel. The world is rarely as grim as the news paints it, and even in this crisis there are countless small examples of positivity that dont get shared as much as the fear and gloom.
They should recycle the same story less and use more documentaries and in-depth reporting to fill the 24 hours.
I think that's right. I wish him the very best of outcomes, but there's something obsessive about the whole country hovering around the bedside demanding instant updates. Once a day is fine, more is just the 24/7 agenda in another of its many pernicious forms.
This is probably true. The issue remains Number 10 screwed up the messaging.
That flatly contradicts the message of the last week which was PM in control, full command of his brief.
If the message last week had been PM poorly, taking it easy, we might have been less shocked to hear he went from running the country to ICU in a single bound.
Anyone who has been in hospital knows what stripped-back diary means:
- Obs - pills - breakfast - toilet - choose tomorrow's meals - a group of doctors comes round and talks about you - Obs - pills - lunch - toilet - Obs - sleep - dinner - pills - toilet - Obs - sleep
Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.
Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?
Unpickupable!
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"
Probably just as well you're not running government communications.
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
In the air and at sea the general rule is that faster gives way to slower
Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.
Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?
Unpickupable!
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"
+1. Personally I would just create a law banning any channel from showing more than 1000 hours of news a year. 24 hours news is like a lot of things a creator of bigger problems than it solves.
BBC has a choice, and an obligation to be balanced. I know these are not the times for it but I think BBC should direct its news team to produce at least a third good news stories on its 24 hr channel. The world is rarely as grim as the news paints it, and even in this crisis there are countless small examples of positivity that dont get shared as much as the fear and gloom.
They should recycle the same story less and use more documentaries and in-depth reporting to fill the 24 hours.
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
OK but it was a genuine question. I am curious as to how likely transmission is if you briefly pass someone breathing gently through the nose with mouth closed.
Seems logical that uncovered coughing and sneezing would be the worst, but how bad are laughing or shouting or talking or singing or panting?
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.
True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)
I think that's right. I wish him the very best of outcomes, but there's something obsessive about the whole country hovering around the bedside demanding instant updates. Once a day is fine, more is just the 24/7 agenda in another of its many pernicious forms.
This is probably true. The issue remains Number 10 screwed up the messaging.
That flatly contradicts the message of the last week which was PM in control, full command of his brief.
If the message last week had been PM poorly, taking it easy, we might have been less shocked to hear he went from running the country to ICU in a single bound.
Anyone who has been in hospital knows what stripped-back diary means:
- Obs - pills - breakfast - toilet - choose tomorrow's meals - a group of doctors comes round and talks about you - Obs - pills - lunch - toilet - Obs - sleep - dinner - pills - toilet - Obs - sleep
You appear to have scheduled more sleep than I recall ever having seen allowed in any hospital ward I’ve been on.
If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.
I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.
It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.
I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.
Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.
I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.
We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.
Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'
Absolute nonsense /
With respect I have been completely right about this virus all the way along, from the very start, and I'm right about masks. Everyone is falling into line. You will too. Eventually, though, in your case by the looks of it.
I've been hot onto this for years but that's probably because I spent 10 years living and working in Asia.
I agree the pressure to wear masks will win out in the end. Not because they help but because "something must be done".
Personally I'll listen to the science and the law, it is undecided at the moment. I am quite comfortable admitting I dont know the full science on masks because people who have studied relevant sciences all their life, in the best institutions also do not know. I really doubt people "know" just because they have lived in Asia.
Masks are not just about science. There are three other main issues. First is supply: there are simply not enough masks to go round so even if Joe Public should wear them, it might be best if the limited supply were directed to health and social care workers.
Second is that when people say there is no evidence the public would benefit, that may be because no-one ever bothered to research the question in any great depth. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, as the saying goes.
Third is that other countries, even in Europe and America, are inching towards public use of masks, so it is entirely legitimate for journalists on our behalf to raise the question.
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
The problem with Gove is that he’s too political. It is impossible to take a word he says as a straight answer. If Boris is out convalescing for a few weeks (which would be sensible for anyone in ICU), I hope they appoint a more neutral caretaker. Hague or Hunt probably. Someone you can trust, with personal authority.
Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.
Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?
Unpickupable!
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"
The Prime Minister's health is a legitimate story. If it does not matter whether Boris or anyone else for that matter is running the country then why do we bother having elections? Why not just replace him now? Jeremy Corbyn's got a free diary.
If there is no change in the Prime Minister's condition, then just report that every hour or so. Boris will be continuously monitored so there is no great work required.
The government's previous spin operation was badly flawed, in execution but more so in intent. There is no merit in trying to double down on it by maintaining media silence on the Prime Minister's current condition and prognosis.
If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.
I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.
It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.
I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.
Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.
I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.
We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.
Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'
Absolute nonsense /
With respect I have been completely right about this virus all the way along, from the very start, and I'm right about masks. Everyone is falling into line. You will too. Eventually, though, in your case by the looks of it.
I've been hot onto this for years but that's probably because I spent 10 years living and working in Asia.
It's interesting as to why you and @eadric are so obsessed with being right.
Visionaries find idiots frustrating.
Just being honest.
I was on a leadership team a while back and we all took the usual temperament tests, Myers-Briggs and all that (cue someone to post an article by Nate Silver explaining why they are unreliable).
It was actually really useful to see that us strongly N types (Intuitives) do need the 'Computer-says-Nooooooo' types to keep us in check.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I think that's right. I wish him the very best of outcomes, but there's something obsessive about the whole country hovering around the bedside demanding instant updates. Once a day is fine, more is just the 24/7 agenda in another of its many pernicious forms.
This is probably true. The issue remains Number 10 screwed up the messaging.
That flatly contradicts the message of the last week which was PM in control, full command of his brief.
If the message last week had been PM poorly, taking it easy, we might have been less shocked to hear he went from running the country to ICU in a single bound.
Anyone who has been in hospital knows what stripped-back diary means:
- Obs - pills - breakfast - toilet - choose tomorrow's meals - a group of doctors comes round and talks about you - Obs - pills - lunch - toilet - Obs - sleep - dinner - pills - toilet - Obs - sleep
Where are the (minimum) ten occurrences of "get woken up by infernal beeping of IV drip stand"?
I agree about the 1950-style hoodwinking attempts by No.10. It has had the opposite effect from what they intended but I'm afraid it has been Boris' way of life: spin and bluster and obfuscation and downright lies.
That doesn't mean I don't now wish him well. I am desperately hoping he pulls through. If he does I suspect he may be a changed man.
Almost certainly. If he survives this, it may well be his epiphany.
I know that my year of cancer (two years if you include the pre-diagnosis decline, which is easy to see in hindsight but miss in reality) changed me beyond all recognition. Both physically and my personality. Entirely for the better.
I’ll never forget those doctors and nurses. I can see their faces and their mannerisms just as clearly as cherished childhood friends
Morning Stuart
hope you are well sir. Ae you still in Sweden and if so what is your take from inside the country on how they are handling it?
God morgon Richard!
Yes, I am in rude good health sir! Just worked double night shifts at the rail traffic control centre, helping to transport essential things like food, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, key workers and toilet rolls* around the continent.
My take on the fact that Sweden once again diverges from accepted wisdom? Dunno. I just listen to the experts. It’s all a question of balance. Saving the lives of as many (mainly elderly) as possible while not crushing the lives and the mental health of too many younger people. I suspect that Sweden has got the balance about right.
I worry about what all this is doing to the mental health of young adults, teenagers and children. Primary and middle-school children are at the top of the agenda here in Sweden, hence why schools, nursery and day care are all still up and running. Our youngest is off for Easter but then back at school next week.
3 out of the 4 adults in our household work (key industries: maritime, rail and primary education). The 4th has been sent home by her Scottish university and is actively seeking jobs (another interview this afternoon).
We have bought a puppy, to be delivered next week. We get our haircut. Visit dentist. The kids play in the sun. We take as many walks as we like and chill at the cafe.
I am a bit scared, but very few people here seem that bothered, and you are a product of your environment. My sister thinks we are all stark raving bonkers. If I admitted how scared I was people would think me a bit odd.
Tons of neighbours have lost their jobs or are on short-time working. I feel sorry for people close to pension that hadn’t reduced their exposure. I’m heavy on gold.
(*yes, bog roll is a huge export product from these parts)
You have some serious hard work coming your way for a few weeks with a puppy. You will look back on it one day and smile, but not always at the time!
Oh, I know what I’m letting myself in for Ian. I was brought up by parents who bred miniature dachshunds! The wife however is totally clueless. She panic subscribed to a broadsheet newspaper this morning cos she’s convinced the pup will ruin her cherished floors and rugs. She was shocked when I told her that girl dogs have periods and boy dogs shag things And are they really called “bitches” in English? How rude!
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Really interesting Stuart. That point about a little bit of weight, but not too much, is fascinating. I wonder if it will continue to bear out. Maybe it's partly to do with the weight loss? Hancock said he lost half a stone in 2 days.
I assumed it was either:
A. a quirk in the stats due to small sample size (only a few hundred has been in intensive care for Covid19 when the table was published)
or B. the effect of a lot of frail elderly people getting stage 2 Covid19
Low body weight in a medical setting is often an indication of serious underlying conditions, cancer, alcoholism, drug addiction etc. I suspect that the ICU figures are a proxy for that.
Thanks. Has the NHS in England published an updated table of critical care outcomes for Covid19?
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
Pumped full of testosterone and self-righteousness.
A toxic mix.
Didn’t realise there were so many black cab drivers on here!
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
I think that's right. I wish him the very best of outcomes, but there's something obsessive about the whole country hovering around the bedside demanding instant updates. Once a day is fine, more is just the 24/7 agenda in another of its many pernicious forms.
This is probably true. The issue remains Number 10 screwed up the messaging.
That flatly contradicts the message of the last week which was PM in control, full command of his brief.
If the message last week had been PM poorly, taking it easy, we might have been less shocked to hear he went from running the country to ICU in a single bound.
Anyone who has been in hospital knows what stripped-back diary means:
- Obs - pills - breakfast - toilet - choose tomorrow's meals - a group of doctors comes round and talks about you - Obs - pills - lunch - toilet - Obs - sleep - dinner - pills - toilet - Obs - sleep
Where are the (minimum) ten occurrences of "get woken up by infernal beeping of IV drip stand"?
Also shift changes - so that
- doctor sees you, schedules test. Says not to eat before test - shift changes - x hours later - finally call a nurse. "What test?"
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
I would guess the true figures are probably higher by two orders of magnitude, though.
On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.
Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.
I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.
Morning everyone. Giving up work was what triggered health problems for me.
I was running almost every day when this broke out.Took half a week off over this weekend, have just gone out for a 5k that quickly got caped at 3k. If nothing else I think good walks are needed when not running. At least for me. With my age/build/lifestyle...
I've gone from an hour at the gym two or three times a week to (almost) an hour's walk most days. I'm lucky, though, that we live in a small town and there are plenty of places where my wife and I can go for a walk and either not meet people, or be able to give them a wide berth. I feel very sorry indeed for people in flats or terraces, especially if they have children. And I feel very, very sorry for the 14-20 age group who should be developing their social relationships.
I miss going for a drink after work with my colleagues. Social distancing can be quite a strain, even for us introverts.
A beautiful morning to have my porridge and tea in the garden, watching my cat stalking in the flower beds. I am fatalistic about this virus, and expect to catch it at some point, but it doesn't make me anxious, just more appreciative of the simple pleasures of life.
Hear, hear - well said Foxy.
Medical question. I read something yesterday from a doctor saying that a pattern that is emerging for many patients in his hospital is: gasping for breath (presumably due to mucus in lungs), oxygen given in small dose, OK for a while, gasping again, oxygen dose increased, ok for a while etc etc until patient can no longer take sufficient oxygen at all unaided.
Is this a pattern you see, and if so is it better for patients to regard the taking of the initial oxygen offer as a last resort? Maybe breathing excercises first?
A cynical doctor once told me there are only two treatments in respiratory medicine: turn the oxygen up a bit; and turn the oxygen down a bit.
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.
True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)
Consideration all round is sensible, of course. I do my best to take evasive action well before I encounter anyone - but there's not all that much you can do if someone comes up behind you at speed.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
Pumped full of testosterone and self-righteousness.
A toxic mix.
Didn’t realise there were so many black cab drivers on here!
Hard to see how reading a few papers and having a few phone calls can be classed as working too hard
Absolutely. There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
There was a story on the BBC yesterday - reporter in a COVID ward. Simple, factual. No "Look at me, all dressed up in operational kit, like a pro".
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.
True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)
Why not? It's nice to get fresh air together and if you're only leaving the house once why not go together?
Besides if you're with young children they can't go out by themselves.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
Pumped full of testosterone and self-righteousness.
A toxic mix.
Didn’t realise there were so many black cab drivers on here!
The supply of arseholes is comparable to the amount of hydrogen in the Universe. I am worried about running out of hydrogen...
I agree about the 1950-style hoodwinking attempts by No.10. It has had the opposite effect from what they intended but I'm afraid it has been Boris' way of life: spin and bluster and obfuscation and downright lies.
That doesn't mean I don't now wish him well. I am desperately hoping he pulls through. If he does I suspect he may be a changed man.
Almost certainly. If he survives this, it may well be his epiphany.
I know that my year of cancer (two years if you include the pre-diagnosis decline, which is easy to see in hindsight but miss in reality) changed me beyond all recognition. Both physically and my personality. Entirely for the better.
I’ll never forget those doctors and nurses. I can see their faces and their mannerisms just as clearly as cherished childhood friends
Morning Stuart
hope you are well sir. Ae you still in Sweden and if so what is your take from inside the country on how they are handling it?
God morgon Richard!
Yes, I am in rude good health sir! Just worked double night shifts at the rail traffic control centre, helping to transport essential things like food, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, key workers and toilet rolls* around the continent.
My take on the fact that Sweden once again diverges from accepted wisdom? Dunno. I just listen to the experts. It’s all a question of balance. Saving the lives of as many (mainly elderly) as possible while not crushing the lives and the mental health of too many younger people. I suspect that Sweden has got the balance about right.
I worry about what all this is doing to the mental health of young adults, teenagers and children. Primary and middle-school children are at the top of the agenda here in Sweden, hence why schools, nursery and day care are all still up and running. Our youngest is off for Easter but then back at school next week.
3 out of the 4 adults in our household work (key industries: maritime, rail and primary education). The 4th has been sent home by her Scottish university and is actively seeking jobs (another interview this afternoon).
We have bought a puppy, to be delivered next week. We get our haircut. Visit dentist. The kids play in the sun. We take as many walks as we like and chill at the cafe.
I am a bit scared, but very few people here seem that bothered, and you are a product of your environment. My sister thinks we are all stark raving bonkers. If I admitted how scared I was people would think me a bit odd.
Tons of neighbours have lost their jobs or are on short-time working. I feel sorry for people close to pension that hadn’t reduced their exposure. I’m heavy on gold.
(*yes, bog roll is a huge export product from these parts)
You have some serious hard work coming your way for a few weeks with a puppy. You will look back on it one day and smile, but not always at the time!
Oh, I know what I’m letting myself in for Ian. I was brought up by parents who bred miniature dachshunds! The wife however is totally clueless. She panic subscribed to a broadsheet newspaper this morning cos she’s convinced the pup will ruin her cherished floors and rugs. She was shocked when I told her that girl dogs have periods and boy dogs shag things And are they really called “bitches” in English? How rude!
I worried too much about the damage it would do, did everything I could including fitting child locks onto all the kitchen cupboards, yet he only needed to be told twice to leave the furniture alone and has never been any trouble since.
On the downside I wasn't prepared for the relentlessness of the first few weeks, and didn't expect at my age to find myself waking up in the small hours lying on the kitchen floor.
Fortunately, as you know, progress and improvement comes very quickly.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
A long way! Which suggests it might be more important to minimise the amount of virus in the outbreath, and the amount of time you are sharing the same general airspace, than keeping 2m away at all times.
Of course you can't predict if someone might cough just when you pass so keeping distance is still a good idea.
That is brilliantly funny. At risk of stereotyping, so very Aussie in its style as well!
Absolutely wonderful
Whatever the rights or wrongs of speculation about China in all this business, a newspaper getting an official snooty letter in defence of a murderous authoritarian regime, well, I dont know what the local functionaries were thinking.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
I went for a run on unusually empty country roads the other day. Most cyclists were fine, a very few insisted on following their "line". What shocked me was that many cyclists do not move to the right for left hand bends. If there was a pedestrian the other side of the bend... (I normally run on the right but move over for right hand bends)
Strava has turned everything into race. Outside-inside-outside is the only feasible line through bends and windy.com has to be studied minutely before every ride.
Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.
The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.
Why do so many cyclists do this?
I assume he was a MAMIL?
Yup. Neon lycra at that.
There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?
I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.
On the downside I wasn't prepared for the relentlessness of the first few weeks, and didn't expect at my age to find myself waking up in the small hours lying on the kitchen floor.
I’ve had several dogs, but that’s never happened to me! Is there a story here?
My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.
And cyclists.
And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.
Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it. But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker. Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road. Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.
True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)
The latest fashion appears to be walking along, talking to someone next to you, about a metre apart. Not actually social distancing, but nicely blocking the pavement.
I've tried locally suggesting that people walking west go on the north side of the road, east on the south etc.
Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
I can't honestly see that - given the circumstances - there's a nation on the planet that could conceivably attack us in the next few months, so it's not really that interesting a question in practice.
But I am very doubtful it’s correct. It may have peaked in the developed world, but in the developing world it looks to me like it’s just getting going.
One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.
According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.
So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.
This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.
Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.
(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)
Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.
The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.
And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.
Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.
I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.
Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.
From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
I would guess the true figures are probably higher by two orders of magnitude, though.
The problem with Gove is that he’s too political. It is impossible to take a word he says as a straight answer. If Boris is out convalescing for a few weeks (which would be sensible for anyone in ICU), I hope they appoint a more neutral caretaker. Hague or Hunt probably. Someone you can trust, with personal authority.
Problem with that is to do so would itself be political by sidelining the designated choice. If they cannot be trusted thats political too.
Comments
On the face of it we know it’s bad - he’s in intensive care and he wouldn’t be there if he wasn’t at risk of dying from this thing. I don’t think it harms to try and look for positives in an inherently depressing time.
hope you are well sir. Ae you still in Sweden and if so what is your take from inside the country on how they are handling it?
Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/via-local-commie-underlings-beijing-officially-disapproves/news-story/491b415795fbbdc526d33d5b569134a4
I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.
A beautiful morning to have my porridge and tea in the garden, watching my cat stalking in the flower beds. I am fatalistic about this virus, and expect to catch it at some point, but it doesn't make me anxious, just more appreciative of the simple pleasures of life.
I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.
You’re a writer? Anything we might have heard of?
However, you have your own opinion on masks no doubt influenced by your time in the far east, but the truth is that the use of masks has not been proven and is not generally used in the west
You sneeze at 70mph and a mask is useless as the droplets explode all around your face and the vicinity, and of course if you wear a mask you must not touch it or fiddle with it at all.
Since late January I have been receiving medical assistance for an infection but latterly a problem which needs a scan and possibly an operation. I have had blood tests in the hospital, attended the A & E out of hours doctors at 1.00am on a Sunday morning, have been in and out of the surgery from my car as the doctor/nurse calls me straight into their consulting room, and I can say I have not seen a mask on anyone in all these environments including A & E, apart from a mother, father and child in the out of hours
You are expressing a far east attitude and it is far from convincing that you are right, but of course we should respect your view as you should others
A toxic mix.
I can't stand running, and I have a poor spine so don't do it. Gyms aren't for me either.
Personally I'll listen to the science and the law, it is undecided at the moment. I am quite comfortable admitting I dont know the full science on masks because people who have studied relevant sciences all their life, in the best institutions also do not know. I really doubt people "know" just because they have lived in Asia.
On walking and fresh air being crucial, I think it's very much something one gets used to. I've had a few walks during the last couple of weeks, and eachtime felt relief at coming home rather than much pleasure in the walk. I don't usually go for walks, so it's a bit silly to start doing it now, even though I can see how it would become a real bulwark of life if one did it regularly. Right now it makes sense to batten down if we can.
Richard Tyndall - that's incredibnle public service, but you should definitely cut back. There are a LOT of volunteers out there now - have you asked the local Age Concern or County support centre if they can take some of the load off you? Quite apart from anything else, you need a backup in case you do fall ill.
Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl
It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).
Medical question. I read something yesterday from a doctor saying that a pattern that is emerging for many patients in his hospital is: gasping for breath (presumably due to mucus in lungs), oxygen given in small dose, OK for a while, gasping again, oxygen dose increased, ok for a while etc etc until patient can no longer take sufficient oxygen at all unaided.
Is this a pattern you see, and if so is it better for patients to regard the taking of the initial oxygen offer as a last resort? Maybe breathing excercises first?
And one clear call for me!
And may there be no moaning of the bar,
When I put out to sea,
But such a tide as moving seems asleep,
Too full for sound and foam,
When that which drew from out the boundless deep
Turns again home.
Twilight and evening bell,
And after that the dark!
And may there be no sadness of farewell,
When I embark;
For tho' from out our bourne of Time and Place
The flood may bear me far,
I hope to see my Pilot face to face
When I have crost the bar.
Yes, I am in rude good health sir! Just worked double night shifts at the rail traffic control centre, helping to transport essential things like food, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, key workers and toilet rolls* around the continent.
My take on the fact that Sweden once again diverges from accepted wisdom? Dunno. I just listen to the experts. It’s all a question of balance. Saving the lives of as many (mainly elderly) as possible while not crushing the lives and the mental health of too many younger people. I suspect that Sweden has got the balance about right.
I worry about what all this is doing to the mental health of young adults, teenagers and children. Primary and middle-school children are at the top of the agenda here in Sweden, hence why schools, nursery and day care are all still up and running. Our youngest is off for Easter but then back at school next week.
3 out of the 4 adults in our household work (key industries: maritime, rail and primary education). The 4th has been sent home by her Scottish university and is actively seeking jobs (another interview this afternoon).
We have bought a puppy, to be delivered next week. We get our haircut. Visit dentist. The kids play in the sun. We take as many walks as we like and chill at the cafe.
I am a bit scared, but very few people here seem that bothered, and you are a product of your environment. My sister thinks we are all stark raving bonkers. If I admitted how scared I was people would think me a bit odd.
Tons of neighbours have lost their jobs or are on short-time working. I feel sorry for people close to pension that hadn’t reduced their exposure. I’m heavy on gold.
(*yes, bog roll is a huge export product from these parts)
Please just STFU with your petty whiny political needling.
I am considering a recitation adapted from the works of this august philosopher - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJ9Kk3ATyuM
Here is Gove this morning
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1247423417554534400
That flatly contradicts the message of the last week which was PM in control, full command of his brief.
If the message last week had been PM poorly, taking it easy, we might have been less shocked to hear he went from running the country to ICU in a single bound.
But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker.
Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road.
Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead
Second is that when people say there is no evidence the public would benefit, that may be because no-one ever bothered to research the question in any great depth. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, as the saying goes.
Third is that other countries, even in Europe and America, are inching towards public use of masks, so it is entirely legitimate for journalists on our behalf to raise the question.
- Obs
- pills
- breakfast
- toilet
- choose tomorrow's meals
- a group of doctors comes round and talks about you
- Obs
- pills
- lunch
- toilet
- Obs
- sleep
- dinner
- pills
- toilet
- Obs
- sleep
There is plenty of interesting stuff (details of clinical trials, vaccine development for example) which is just as likely to affect the outcome of the pandemic as anything the government is doing, which simply doesn't get reported in any detail by the main news channels.
If there is no change in the Prime Minister's condition, then just report that every hour or so. Boris will be continuously monitored so there is no great work required.
The government's previous spin operation was badly flawed, in execution but more so in intent. There is no merit in trying to double down on it by maintaining media silence on the Prime Minister's current condition and prognosis.
Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?
NB:
https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1247325085507215361?s=21
https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1247197819343077383
Having spent an awful lot of time watching foreign news channels over the past 3 years (side effect of working in europe in hotel lounges) German and French news channels always offer good news stories (alongside Brexit at the time for laughs). BBC channels never do - UK 24 hours is like a rolling episode of Eastenders, always depressing.
- doctor sees you, schedules test. Says not to eat before test
- shift changes
- x hours later
- finally call a nurse. "What test?"
I do my best to take evasive action well before I encounter anyone - but there's not all that much you can do if someone comes up behind you at speed.
Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).
Please may I have some more, sir?
Besides if you're with young children they can't go out by themselves.
On the downside I wasn't prepared for the relentlessness of the first few weeks, and didn't expect at my age to find myself waking up in the small hours lying on the kitchen floor.
Fortunately, as you know, progress and improvement comes very quickly.
Which suggests it might be more important to minimise the amount of virus in the outbreath, and the amount of time you are sharing the same general airspace, than keeping 2m away at all times.
Of course you can't predict if someone might cough just when you pass so keeping distance is still a good idea.
I've tried locally suggesting that people walking west go on the north side of the road, east on the south etc.
But I am very doubtful it’s correct. It may have peaked in the developed world, but in the developing world it looks to me like it’s just getting going.