The other day someone was asking how they could watch The Sopranos? It's currently on Sky Atlantic, Series 3, but if you click on More Episodes you can watch it all from the pilot episode onwards.
What will be the date when the uk Govt officially announces an end to Covid 19?
And how big will the UK economy be compared to the 1st February 2020?
I think 1st September 2021.....and our economy will be 83% the size....
Depends on a vaccine but it could be in your timeline and the size of the economy is maybe optimistic
My instinct was to go for 64%...but I depressed myself...and so went higher....
Economically we will be a mjuch poorer country possibly....hopefully emotionally and spiritually we will not....
I think the end result of this will be a sea change away from greed and globalisation and a much more socially aware society, and hopefully kinder
You're a far more optimistic person than I am. I think we'll have a mixture of increased kindness and increased bitterness for a few months or years, then the grinding pressures of society will see us return to our previous state, for better and worse. Our stubborness and resilience can work both ways.
It is upto each and everyone to learn from the suffering of so many and soften their attitudes towards a kinder gentler society. I know many will not see it this way but hopefully a good majority will
In fairness I've just read a bunch of Joe Abercrombie books so I'm full of a depressing view of human nature right now.
I tried to open a bottle of red wine tonight, and remembered I left my only corkscrew opener at a friends house. Gutted does not even begin to describe it.
It won’t go off that quickly. Get another corkscrew.
Better still, buy screwcap bottles of wine.
push it in with a bit of brute force and the back end of a knife...I've been reduced to that a few times
At the risk of getting the more bibulous pbers telling me to foxtrot oscar, I’m radically cutting down my alcohol intake while isolating. The main thing I’m noticing is that I’m sleeping much better.
Do not drink after 8pm and preferably not after 7pm. In any case, drink at least 2 or 3 cups of tea or water between the last drink and bedtime. Most hangovers are caused by dehydration, but I find booze after 8pm disturbs my sleep
I tried to open a bottle of red wine tonight, and remembered I left my only corkscrew opener at a friends house. Gutted does not even begin to describe it.
Do they still use corks? I thought it was 99 per cent screw tops these days. Just search for "how to open wine without a corkscrew" or some such. Or cheat and push the cork in.
Screw a 50mm self tapper in and then pull the cork with pliers
... or borrow your neighbour's corkscrew
I once watched a man open a wine bottle with using only a shoe.
Believe it or not it does work, and quite surprisingly quickly.
I tried to open a bottle of red wine tonight, and remembered I left my only corkscrew opener at a friends house. Gutted does not even begin to describe it.
It won’t go off that quickly. Get another corkscrew.
Better still, buy screwcap bottles of wine.
push it in with a bit of brute force and the back end of a knife...I've been reduced to that a few times
At the risk of getting the more bibulous pbers telling me to foxtrot oscar, I’m radically cutting down my alcohol intake while isolating. The main thing I’m noticing is that I’m sleeping much better.
So the French figures looked good today. obviously excluding the 884 deaths which was a lump sum since the start of the outbreak (they weren't measuring the care home deaths at the time). New infections at about +2000 and deaths under 500. just a blip or a sign of the growth rate slowing in France, which would indicate the country managing to avoid being than Italy and Spain?
What will be the date when the uk Govt officially announces an end to Covid 19?
And how big will the UK economy be compared to the 1st February 2020?
I think 1st September 2021.....and our economy will be 83% the size....
Depends on a vaccine but it could be in your timeline and the size of the economy is maybe optimistic
My instinct was to go for 64%...but I depressed myself...and so went higher....
Economically we will be a mjuch poorer country possibly....hopefully emotionally and spiritually we will not....
I think the end result of this will be a sea change away from greed and globalisation and a much more socially aware society, and hopefully kinder
I hope you’re right. I am much more pessimistic. I fear things will kick off at some point.
I know it has highlighted how fortunate my wife and I in our old age and hope that we can come together to reflect on the suffering and vow to care for everyone and reject greed from any source
Well said. I hope you prevail. Meanwhile others are looking to allocate blame. Some in the west blaming China, some in Russia blaming the west. A lot of people will not be happy with financial ruin.
Strange that my memory of the immediate post war years was of ration books, everywhere seemed in a permanent sepia colour, having very little, but we were happy and very close to family life.
The other day someone was asking how they could watch The Sopranos? It's currently on Sky Atlantic, Series 3, but if you click on More Episodes you can watch it all from the pilot episode onwards.
You would need to have Sky of course..
Thanks! It wasn't me but that's one I've been meaning to watch.
Currently watching Game of Thrones back from the beginning. Work meant I never had time to watch the final season when it was aired and been a couple of year since I saw the penultimate series so now I'm house bound due to the virus rewatching it from the start to the end. Please no spoilers!
The other day someone was asking how they could watch The Sopranos? It's currently on Sky Atlantic, Series 3, but if you click on More Episodes you can watch it all from the pilot episode onwards.
People used to wear mask because they thought they were protecting themselves. Until that was revealed as fallacy.
Now something you already had in the house is just as good to show you are careful not to infect others? Truth is in this situation, with a cough and a sneeze you shouldn’t be out there anyway.
And whoever tried to fool everyone 2m is okay, when droplets from cough or sneeze go 7m needs hauling before us and grilled.
It also lives in faeces, pulling the flush with lid up can give it to you, added with the healthy hand dryers makes public or workplace loos the most riskiest of places.
OK.
You do know that droplets from coughs or sneezes are subject to gravity, right?
And, not only, that but they disperse over time, and that their intensity drops at a cube rate.
So, sure, if you're lying on the ground seven meters away, you might still get some flying fleghm... but it will be one hundredth of the amount someone gets if they're one meters from the sneezer.
This is not about reducing chance of infection to zero. It's about reducing it by an order of magnitude. Two meters does that.
I’m certainly not going to argue with the calming and reassuring voice on this site, but I understand WHO are revisiting the guidelines based on some latest findings.
I'd like to engage the collective wisdom of PB please 🙂
I have elderly relatives who insist on going to the shops to get shopping/newspaper, etc. They say they feel happy and comfortable going to the "elderly hour" at the supermarket. I tell them this enemy is invisible and they could feel totally comfortable, but they are still putting themselves in harm's way. I'm more than happy to do all this stuff for them - order their shopping online with click and collect and leave it at their front door (I have slots booked already for myself). They say it's too much hassle for me, I shouldn't go out of my way.
How do you get through to them? This is driving me nuts!
I tried to open a bottle of red wine tonight, and remembered I left my only corkscrew opener at a friends house. Gutted does not even begin to describe it.
Do they still use corks? I thought it was 99 per cent screw tops these days. Just search for "how to open wine without a corkscrew" or some such. Or cheat and push the cork in.
Screw a 50mm self tapper in and then pull the cork with pliers
... or borrow your neighbour's corkscrew
I once watched a man open a wine bottle with using only a shoe.
Believe it or not it does work, and quite surprisingly quickly.
The other day someone was asking how they could watch The Sopranos? It's currently on Sky Atlantic, Series 3, but if you click on More Episodes you can watch it all from the pilot episode onwards.
You would need to have Sky of course..
Thanks! It wasn't me but that's one I've been meaning to watch.
Currently watching Game of Thrones back from the beginning. Work meant I never had time to watch the final season when it was aired and been a couple of year since I saw the penultimate series so now I'm house bound due to the virus rewatching it from the start to the end. Please no spoilers!
Well, a few tough guys get rubbed out, and several cannoli are eaten.
What will be the date when the uk Govt officially announces an end to Covid 19?
And how big will the UK economy be compared to the 1st February 2020?
I think 1st September 2021.....and our economy will be 83% the size....
Depends on a vaccine but it could be in your timeline and the size of the economy is maybe optimistic
My instinct was to go for 64%...but I depressed myself...and so went higher....
Economically we will be a mjuch poorer country possibly....hopefully emotionally and spiritually we will not....
I think the end result of this will be a sea change away from greed and globalisation and a much more socially aware society, and hopefully kinder
You're a far more optimistic person than I am. I think we'll have a mixture of increased kindness and increased bitterness for a few months or years, then the grinding pressures of society will see us return to our previous state, for better and worse. Our stubborness and resilience can work both ways.
It is upto each and everyone to learn from the suffering of so many and soften their attitudes towards a kinder gentler society. I know many will not see it this way but hopefully a good majority will
In fairness I've just read a bunch of Joe Abercrombie books so I'm full of a depressing view of human nature right now.
I read a trilogy of his and it was ok(ish) - a sort of Game of Thrones lite. I thought that torturer Glokta was the only character of note.
I have just finished reading the Millennium Trilogy (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) and it was bl**dy brilliant. Each novel better than its predecessor
I'd like to engage the collective wisdom of PB please 🙂
I have elderly relatives who insist on going to the shops to get shopping/newspaper, etc. They say they feel happy and comfortable going to the "elderly hour" at the supermarket. I tell them this enemy is invisible and they could feel totally comfortable, but they are still putting themselves in harm's way. I'm more than happy to do all this stuff for them - order their shopping online with click and collect and leave it at their front door (I have slots booked already for myself). They say it's too much hassle for me, I shouldn't go out of my way.
How do you get through to them? This is driving me nuts!
Find a relative of theirs whom they trust, or better yet is a favourite of theirs, and get that person to make it clear how serious the situation is.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
And his record on holding Boris to account is stellar !!!
I cannot say how relieved I will be to see him gone, preferably to his allotment
The one person who damaged the labour party more than anyone in history
And I really hope Starmer is not daft enough to give him any position in the shadow cabinet
Starmer is not going to let Corbyn near....
It is the damage to the country that a weak opposition does,,,,,
Just think...if labour had not had such a mental collapse...you'd have Osborne now as PM, no Brexit....and a decent cabinet front bench of big hitters like Grieve, Hammond, May, Hunt, Rudd, etc.....
You would also still have deep austerity and spending as a percentage of gdp heading to just 35%, one of the lowest in the western world, which was Osborne's target, rather than staying over 40% and rising under Boris.
Given Osborne's links to China Leader of the Opposition Andy Burnham might be running him close in the GE postponed to the autumn this year due to Covid 19
We know from Wuhan/Hubei that real infection rates fall very quickly after a lockdown is implemented. (Heck, I've been saying this for about three weeks.)
It seems naive to think that infection rates would not have continued on an upward path if there had been no measures to stop infection in Italy,
I tried to open a bottle of red wine tonight, and remembered I left my only corkscrew opener at a friends house. Gutted does not even begin to describe it.
Do they still use corks? I thought it was 99 per cent screw tops these days. Just search for "how to open wine without a corkscrew" or some such. Or cheat and push the cork in.
Screw a 50mm self tapper in and then pull the cork with pliers
... or borrow your neighbour's corkscrew
I once watched a man open a wine bottle with using only a shoe.
Believe it or not it does work, and quite surprisingly quickly.
Wow. By far the best answer. Can’t believe that works?!?
The guy I saw who used this method was a grizzled old ad man, a terminal alcoholic. I reckon if he'd broken the bottle, he'd have strained the broken bits through his sock and drank the wine out of his shoe. So perhaps that is the level of desperation required.
But yes, it worked. And with very few taps. For what it's worth, he hit it very, very hard, maybe four or five times. So I think some force is required to make this method work.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Wine box, Bosh. Job done. Keep your shoes and shirt on. And there’s usually more wine.
People used to wear mask because they thought they were protecting themselves. Until that was revealed as fallacy.
Now something you already had in the house is just as good to show you are careful not to infect others? Truth is in this situation, with a cough and a sneeze you shouldn’t be out there anyway.
And whoever tried to fool everyone 2m is okay, when droplets from cough or sneeze go 7m needs hauling before us and grilled.
It also lives in faeces, pulling the flush with lid up can give it to you, added with the healthy hand dryers makes public or workplace loos the most riskiest of places.
OK.
You do know that droplets from coughs or sneezes are subject to gravity, right?
And, not only, that but they disperse over time, and that their intensity drops at a cube rate.
So, sure, if you're lying on the ground seven meters away, you might still get some flying fleghm... but it will be one hundredth of the amount someone gets if they're one meters from the sneezer.
This is not about reducing chance of infection to zero. It's about reducing it by an order of magnitude. Two meters does that.
I’m certainly not going to argue with the calming and reassuring voice on this site, but I understand WHO are revisiting the guidelines based on some latest findings.
You seem to think very much in ones and zeros. Either something works, or it doesn't.
The reality is that lots of things work to a greater or lesser extent. You will not get the same viral load from a CV-19 cougher/sneezer at seven yards you do at one yard. Because physics.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
I'd like to engage the collective wisdom of PB please 🙂
I have elderly relatives who insist on going to the shops to get shopping/newspaper, etc. They say they feel happy and comfortable going to the "elderly hour" at the supermarket. I tell them this enemy is invisible and they could feel totally comfortable, but they are still putting themselves in harm's way. I'm more than happy to do all this stuff for them - order their shopping online with click and collect and leave it at their front door (I have slots booked already for myself). They say it's too much hassle for me, I shouldn't go out of my way.
How do you get through to them? This is driving me nuts!
They still have many years of going to the shops, buying the papers.
AS LONG AS they let you do it for them for the next few weeks.
Otherwise, there's a very real risk it will be just the one of them, doing the shopping for one... Now, is that fair on the other, the one who doesn't make it?
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
How'd the interview go btw. If it went well, that would justify cracking it open tonight, regardless of the WHO advice.
It went well! It’s a long process, but at this point they’ve agreed to give me a placement after things return to normal, so it was a success overall, thank you.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
How'd the interview go btw. If it went well, that would justify cracking it open tonight, regardless of the WHO advice.
It went well! It’s a long process, but at this point they’ve agreed to give me a placement after things return to normal, so it was a success overall, thank you.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Swiss army knife, at all times.
Yep. I always travel with 3 corkscrews, one Swiss Army knife, three major EDC knives. The Ontario rat is my favourite
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
Any time. PM me.
You went to cheltenham festival you fucking moron. This makes you either selfish and stupid or outrageously selfish and stupid. And then you came on here and drunkenly boasted about it.
You have probably killed people. Well done, old boy, well done.
We know from Wuhan/Hubei that real infection rates fall very quickly after a lockdown is implemented. (Heck, I've been saying this for about three weeks.)
It seems naive to think that infection rates would not have continued on an upward path if there had been no measures to stop infection in Italy,
It was approaching peak in the Lombard, Veneto and Emilian epicentre provinces, but was just on the point of taking off in the major cities, Milan, although close to centre had many fewer cases than provinces 1/4 of the size, Turin, Rome and Naples were on the cusp of the exponent steepening sharply. The full lockdown was damping down to stop the fire spreading outwards. Milan now has the greatest number of cases of any province, but the best measure of the effect of lockdown would probably be Piedmont.
Even allowing for the London, Sheffield, South Wales, W Mids hotspots our outbreak is much more evenly national across the whole UK than Italy's ever was or, indeed, America's is.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
How'd the interview go btw. If it went well, that would justify cracking it open tonight, regardless of the WHO advice.
It went well! It’s a long process, but at this point they’ve agreed to give me a placement after things return to normal, so it was a success overall, thank you.
Yay! Just those exams to get through.
If only you had a bunch of lawyers with lots of time on their hands, to give you a few pointers to the answers....
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
If you look at the data coming into the Bevan hospital in Gwent-just over 2 weeks ago, the Stereophonics played 2 capacity gigs at the Cardiff 02- apparently pics of the sold out in this indoor gig were the most shared inside China....
It's the Lombardy equivalent.... Atlanta vs Valencia (played on the 19th Feb).... ..lots of aysmptomtic spreaders who travelled in on joint cars etc.....and more importantly left in joint cars.
The Stereophonics gig was nearly a month later....and Gwent is our hotspot.....
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Swiss army knife, at all times.
Yep. I always travel with 3 corkscrews, one Swiss Army knife, three major EDC knives. The Ontario rat is my favourite
People used to wear mask because they thought they were protecting themselves. Until that was revealed as fallacy.
Now something you already had in the house is just as good to show you are careful not to infect others? Truth is in this situation, with a cough and a sneeze you shouldn’t be out there anyway.
And whoever tried to fool everyone 2m is okay, when droplets from cough or sneeze go 7m needs hauling before us and grilled.
It also lives in faeces, pulling the flush with lid up can give it to you, added with the healthy hand dryers makes public or workplace loos the most riskiest of places.
OK.
You do know that droplets from coughs or sneezes are subject to gravity, right?
And, not only, that but they disperse over time, and that their intensity drops at a cube rate.
So, sure, if you're lying on the ground seven meters away, you might still get some flying fleghm... but it will be one hundredth of the amount someone gets if they're one meters from the sneezer.
This is not about reducing chance of infection to zero. It's about reducing it by an order of magnitude. Two meters does that.
I’m certainly not going to argue with the calming and reassuring voice on this site, but I understand WHO are revisiting the guidelines based on some latest findings.
You seem to think very much in ones and zeros. Either something works, or it doesn't.
The reality is that lots of things work to a greater or lesser extent. You will not get the same viral load from a CV-19 cougher/sneezer at seven yards you do at one yard. Because physics.
I understand. Similar to where they say it can live on a surface 2 days, but not to same potency throughout, it a question of degrees. Thank you.
Let’s see what review team back with. Maybe move towards public face covering, mask or scarf, perhaps some routine for dealing with outside bling clean watches, phones rings as soon as come back to house with hand washes either side.
Which is what you'd expect when it's been so mild. I guess the whole purpose of the lockdown is to avoid creating a huge spike on those graphs that is visible a mile away. If we wait until the spike in deaths is visible on those graphs it would be too late.
That plan for killing off the oldie Tory vote - it may need some tweaking, Momentumites...
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
I’m not at all surprised death rates of OAPs are down. The lockdown and social distancing measures will have reduced the chance of passing on lots of other diseases, as well as reducing deaths by car crashes etc.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Swiss army knife, at all times.
Yep. I always travel with 3 corkscrews, one Swiss Army knife, three major EDC knives. The Ontario rat is my favourite
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
Any time. PM me.
You went to cheltenham festival you fucking moron. This makes you either selfish and stupid or outrageously selfish and stupid. And then you came on here and drunkenly boasted about it.
You have probably killed people. Well done, old boy, well done.
That plan for killing off the oldie Tory vote - it may need some tweaking, Momentumites...
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
I’m not at all surprised death rates of OAPs are down. The lockdown and social distancing measures will have reduced the chance of passing on lots of other diseases, as well as reducing deaths by car crashes etc.
Check the date range, the stats are from before the lockdown even started.
What will be the date when the uk Govt officially announces an end to Covid 19?
And how big will the UK economy be compared to the 1st February 2020?
I think 1st September 2021.....and our economy will be 83% the size....
Depends on a vaccine but it could be in your timeline and the size of the economy is maybe optimistic
My instinct was to go for 64%...but I depressed myself...and so went higher....
Economically we will be a mjuch poorer country possibly....hopefully emotionally and spiritually we will not....
I think the end result of this will be a sea change away from greed and globalisation and a much more socially aware society, and hopefully kinder
You're a far more optimistic person than I am. I think we'll have a mixture of increased kindness and increased bitterness for a few months or years, then the grinding pressures of society will see us return to our previous state, for better and worse. Our stubborness and resilience can work both ways.
It is upto each and everyone to learn from the suffering of so many and soften their attitudes towards a kinder gentler society. I know many will not see it this way but hopefully a good majority will
In fairness I've just read a bunch of Joe Abercrombie books so I'm full of a depressing view of human nature right now.
I read a trilogy of his and it was ok(ish) - a sort of Game of Thrones lite. I thought that torturer Glokta was the only character of note.
I had passed on his work previously off a similar assessment. Honestly I think the trio of 'standalone' books bridging The First Law Trilogy and its sequels are better than the original trilogy. The Heroes and Red County at least (Best Served Cold a bit less so). I think he found a better balancing of the pathetic, contemptible characters of his setting with some moments of hope or genuine humanity (since humanity is not all hopeless). Heck, a couple of characters in Red County even get something like a happy ending!
Edit: Darkness induced apathy can be a real issue with some of these works. Though I read one this evening called Blackwing billed as from the 'publishers who brought you Joe Abercrombie'. Weird, and a bit too heavy on the made up lore at the start to make it easy to get in to, but turned out pretty decent.
We know from Wuhan/Hubei that real infection rates fall very quickly after a lockdown is implemented. (Heck, I've been saying this for about three weeks.)
It seems naive to think that infection rates would not have continued on an upward path if there had been no measures to stop infection in Italy,
It was approaching peak in the Lombard, Veneto and Emilian epicentre provinces, but was just on the point of taking off in the major cities, Milan, although close to centre had many fewer cases than provinces 1/4 of the size, Turin, Rome and Naples were on the cusp of the exponent steepening sharply. The full lockdown was damping down to stop the fire spreading outwards. Milan now has the greatest number of cases of any province, but the best measure of the effect of lockdown would probably be Piedmont.
Even allowing for the London, Sheffield, South Wales, W Mids hotspots our outbreak is much more evenly national across the whole UK than Italy's ever was or, indeed, America's is.
Which is arguably not a bad thing in terms of NHS capacity, as long as we have stopped it at the right time... we might just be lucky here...
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
If you look at the data coming into the Bevan hospital in Gwent-just over 2 weeks ago, the Stereophonics played 2 capacity gigs at the Cardiff 02- apparently pics of the sold out in this indoor gig were the most shared inside China....
It's the Lombardy equivalent.... Atlanta vs Valencia (played on the 19th Feb).... ..lots of aysmptomtic spreaders who travelled in on joint cars etc.....and more importantly left in joint cars.
The Stereophonics gig was nearly a month later....and Gwent is our hotspot.....
With due respect, however misjudged the Stereos gig was, I dont think it has a lot to do with the Gwent hotspot. Apparently someone from the local Health board came back from Italy, unknowingly with the virus and he is believed to be the start of the epidemic in that area. Add to that the close proximity of the terraced valley houses and a close knit community is probably the real cause of the hot spot there.
On topic: Thank goodness for the internet. Think how much worse it would have been even five years ago, when download speeds and availability were so much worse, or ten years ago when much of this wouldn't have been possible at all.
Chez Nabavi we've been spoilt for choice. We watched the two guvnors tonight, which was great fun. Last night we watched the free streaming of the magnificent 2007 Barber of Seville from the Met, with a first class cast led by Joyce DiDonato in prime voice. On Tuesday we had a dose of mitteleuropäische angst with Jenufa from Brno. Before that: Die Walkúre and parts of Siegfried and Götterdämmerung again from the Met, and a superb Lucia di Lammermoor also from the Met. Treats to come include Le Nozze di Figaro from Garsngton, and more goodies from the Met.
Meanwhile there are books to read, a bit of light work to do during the day, the garden, fine wines .... I think we can hack this lockdown business...
But at the same time my heart goes out to those stuck in flats, perhaps with young children, and money worries, not to mention those families directly hit by the awful virus, in some cases not even able to mourn their dead properly. It's a surreal time at best, and horrific for many. Kudos to the NHS and care workers, and all others in the front line.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
Any time. PM me.
You went to cheltenham festival you fucking moron. This makes you either selfish and stupid or outrageously selfish and stupid. And then you came on here and drunkenly boasted about it.
You have probably killed people. Well done, old boy, well done.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
How'd the interview go btw. If it went well, that would justify cracking it open tonight, regardless of the WHO advice.
It went well! It’s a long process, but at this point they’ve agreed to give me a placement after things return to normal, so it was a success overall, thank you.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
Blimey it's getting spicy tonight. We'll see who's still standing tomorrow I guess.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
If you look at the data coming into the Bevan hospital in Gwent-just over 2 weeks ago, the Stereophonics played 2 capacity gigs at the Cardiff 02- apparently pics of the sold out in this indoor gig were the most shared inside China....
It's the Lombardy equivalent.... Atlanta vs Valencia (played on the 19th Feb).... ..lots of aysmptomtic spreaders who travelled in on joint cars etc.....and more importantly left in joint cars.
The Stereophonics gig was nearly a month later....and Gwent is our hotspot.....
With due respect, however misjudged the Stereos gig was, I dont think it has a lot to do with the Gwent hotspot. Apparently someone from the local Health board came back from Italy, unknowingly with the virus and he is believed to be the start of the epidemic in that area. Add to that the close proximity of the terraced valley houses and a close knit community is probably the real cause of the hot spot there.
So one person travelling from Italy was the problem....not the 2 x 5000 capacity, indoor gigs in Cardiff..just over 2 weeks ago....where lots of young people would have travelled in and out sharing cars (and minibus) from the local areas.....which feed into Bevan hospital...
Bergamo was almost undoubtedly fuelled by the match against Valencia on the 19th February where convoys of fans came in on buses....which led to Lomabardy being the epicentre after the 15th March.....
The two Stereophonics gigs were nearly a month later than the Atlanta match.....which means the eye of the storm is coming the end of next week.....I hope not....I really do,
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Swiss army knife, at all times.
Yep. I always travel with 3 corkscrews, one Swiss Army knife, three major EDC knives. The Ontario rat is my favourite
That plan for killing off the oldie Tory vote - it may need some tweaking, Momentumites...
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
I’m not at all surprised death rates of OAPs are down. The lockdown and social distancing measures will have reduced the chance of passing on lots of other diseases, as well as reducing deaths by car crashes etc.
Check the date range, the stats are from before the lockdown even started.
It seems to me, maybe I am misjudging it, that the mild winter and lack of deaths from flu in Europe left a lot of vulnerable people alive that might have been expected to die in a normal year, and generally they are the ones falling victim to covid-19, meaning the total deaths this year may not be anything alarming
According to my daughter, the cost of green veg has gone up. Wholesalers are saying that less is getting picked because of the 2-metre rule and because of much stricter border controls leading to delays. The wholesale cost of a head of cauliflower has gone up to £1.80 from 50p normally - the highest it’s been in decades.
Still her pizza takeaway business is taking lots of orders: it’s the only pizza takeaway place between Workington and Ulverston.
And please no jokes about pineapples. She needs all the business she can get.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
If you look at the data coming into the Bevan hospital in Gwent-just over 2 weeks ago, the Stereophonics played 2 capacity gigs at the Cardiff 02- apparently pics of the sold out in this indoor gig were the most shared inside China....
It's the Lombardy equivalent.... Atlanta vs Valencia (played on the 19th Feb).... ..lots of aysmptomtic spreaders who travelled in on joint cars etc.....and more importantly left in joint cars.
The Stereophonics gig was nearly a month later....and Gwent is our hotspot.....
With due respect, however misjudged the Stereos gig was, I dont think it has a lot to do with the Gwent hotspot. Apparently someone from the local Health board came back from Italy, unknowingly with the virus and he is believed to be the start of the epidemic in that area. Add to that the close proximity of the terraced valley houses and a close knit community is probably the real cause of the hot spot there.
Every hot spot has patient zero. It doesn’t mean that patient zero HAS to then spread it to thousands.
What you need for that is big crowds of people, rammed together, at, say, a concert or a race festival; that’ll do it. They will take the bug, and make sure it is widely dispersed
Cf the spring breakers in America.
That was the official line from Gwent. I agree though that gigs like Cheltenham are guaranteed to cause massive virus spread.
That plan for killing off the oldie Tory vote - it may need some tweaking, Momentumites...
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
I’m not at all surprised death rates of OAPs are down. The lockdown and social distancing measures will have reduced the chance of passing on lots of other diseases, as well as reducing deaths by car crashes etc.
Check the date range, the stats are from before the lockdown even started.
It seems to me, maybe I am misjudging it, that the mild winter and lack of deaths from flu in Europe left a lot of vulnerable people alive that might have been expected to die in a normal year, and generally they are the ones falling victim to covid-19, meaning the total deaths this year may not be anything alarming
I don't think that is right. 2019/20 looked like a pretty average year according to those charts.
So the French figures looked good today. obviously excluding the 884 deaths which was a lump sum since the start of the outbreak (they weren't measuring the care home deaths at the time). New infections at about +2000 and deaths under 500. just a blip or a sign of the growth rate slowing in France, which would indicate the country managing to avoid being than Italy and Spain?
I have done some negative binomial time series modelling on the UK deaths figures (ie Poisson regression with overdispersion and possibly serial dependencies) and the thing that struck me is how big the "plus or minus" is on any given day just due to random variation, let alone the uncertainty in the estimation itself.
For example a very basic constant-growth model for the UK data suggests deaths are growing at about 25% per day but that comes with a degree of uncertainty (21% to 28% daily growth is the 95% confidence interval). But the model's predictions for the next 3 days are:
730 deaths (95% prediction interval 400 to 1100) 910 deaths (95% prediction interval 520 to 1400) 1100 deaths (95% prediction interval 620 to 1800)
So even if tomorrow the number of UK deaths falls to 450 or jumps over 1000 for the first time, it doesn't necessarily indicate a substantial departure from trend.
The minimum kind of variation you'd expect for a count data series would be if it were Poisson distributed, so comes with a standard deviation approximating the square root of the current count (eg a figure of exactly 400 should be taken with a pinch of salt because it could quite easily by chance have gone one or two standard deviations either way, and since one standard deviation would be 20ish it's probably best read as "320ish to 480ish, but probably in the region 360 to 440").
But every model I tried showed quite substantial overdispersion (hence a negative binomial rather than Poisson distribution) and for that constant growth model it's so bad that the standard deviation should be about one quarter of the count, for reasonably large count sizes - so you would need to read a count of 400 as likely coming with plus or minus 100 of random variation, or even plus or minus 200 if you go out to two standard deviations either way.
Basically it isn't worth getting super excited about a day or even a couple of days of data!
On topic: Thank goodness for the internet. Think how much worse it would have been even five years ago, when download speeds and availability were so much worse, or ten years ago when much of this wouldn't have been possible at all.
Chez Nabavi we've been spoilt for choice. We watched the two guvnors tonight, which was great fun. Last night we watched the free streaming of the magnificent 2007 Barber of Seville from the Met, with a first class cast led by Joyce DiDonato in prime voice. On Tuesday we had a dose of mitteleuropäische angst with Jenufa from Brno. Before that: Die Walkúre and parts of Siegfried and Götterdämmerung again from the Met, and a superb Lucia di Lammermoor also from the Met. Treats to come include Le Nozze di Figaro from Garsngton, and more goodies from the Met.
Meanwhile there are books to read, a bit of light work to do during the day, the garden, fine wines .... I think we can hack this lockdown business...
But at the same time my heart goes out to those stuck in flats, perhaps with young children, and money worries, not to mention those families directly hit by the awful virus, in some cases not even able to mourn their dead properly. It's a surreal time at best, and horrific for many. Kudos to the NHS and care workers, and all others in the front line.
Today I saw videos of South African shanty towns in sky news and I felt for the people there. Even if they do their best, we at least have a chance to self isolate
That plan for killing off the oldie Tory vote - it may need some tweaking, Momentumites...
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
I’m not at all surprised death rates of OAPs are down. The lockdown and social distancing measures will have reduced the chance of passing on lots of other diseases, as well as reducing deaths by car crashes etc.
Check the date range, the stats are from before the lockdown even started.
It seems to me, maybe I am misjudging it, that the mild winter and lack of deaths from flu in Europe left a lot of vulnerable people alive that might have been expected to die in a normal year, and generally they are the ones falling victim to covid-19, meaning the total deaths this year may not be anything alarming
I don't think that is right. 2019/20 looked like a pretty average year according to those charts.
That plan for killing off the oldie Tory vote - it may need some tweaking, Momentumites...
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
I’m not at all surprised death rates of OAPs are down. The lockdown and social distancing measures will have reduced the chance of passing on lots of other diseases, as well as reducing deaths by car crashes etc.
Check the date range, the stats are from before the lockdown even started.
It seems to me, maybe I am misjudging it, that the mild winter and lack of deaths from flu in Europe left a lot of vulnerable people alive that might have been expected to die in a normal year, and generally they are the ones falling victim to covid-19, meaning the total deaths this year may not be anything alarming
I don't think that is right. 2019/20 looked like a pretty average year according to those charts.
?
Is there a better version of that plot, I can't see what the text is. I was referring to the graphs at the top of his blog, where 2019/20 lies smack in the middle of the rest of the years.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
If you look at the data coming into the Bevan hospital in Gwent-just over 2 weeks ago, the Stereophonics played 2 capacity gigs at the Cardiff 02- apparently pics of the sold out in this indoor gig were the most shared inside China....
It's the Lombardy equivalent.... Atlanta vs Valencia (played on the 19th Feb).... ..lots of aysmptomtic spreaders who travelled in on joint cars etc.....and more importantly left in joint cars.
The Stereophonics gig was nearly a month later....and Gwent is our hotspot.....
With due respect, however misjudged the Stereos gig was, I dont think it has a lot to do with the Gwent hotspot. Apparently someone from the local Health board came back from Italy, unknowingly with the virus and he is believed to be the start of the epidemic in that area. Add to that the close proximity of the terraced valley houses and a close knit community is probably the real cause of the hot spot there.
Every hot spot has patient zero. It doesn’t mean that patient zero HAS to then spread it to thousands.
What you need for that is big crowds of people, rammed together, at, say, a concert or a race festival; that’ll do it. They will take the bug, and make sure it is widely dispersed
Cf the spring breakers in America.
That was the official line from Gwent. I agree though that gigs like Cheltenham are guaranteed to cause massive virus spread.
I've been posting here since those gigs my worries for South Wales....
According to my daughter, the cost of green veg has gone up. Wholesalers are saying that less is getting picked because of the 2-metre rule and because of much stricter border controls leading to delays. The wholesale cost of a head of cauliflower has gone up to £1.80 from 50p normally - the highest it’s been in decades.
Still her pizza takeaway business is taking lots of orders: it’s the only pizza takeaway place between Workington and Ulverston.
And please no jokes about pineapples. She needs all the business she can get.
That plan for killing off the oldie Tory vote - it may need some tweaking, Momentumites...
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
I’m not at all surprised death rates of OAPs are down. The lockdown and social distancing measures will have reduced the chance of passing on lots of other diseases, as well as reducing deaths by car crashes etc.
Check the date range, the stats are from before the lockdown even started.
It seems to me, maybe I am misjudging it, that the mild winter and lack of deaths from flu in Europe left a lot of vulnerable people alive that might have been expected to die in a normal year, and generally they are the ones falling victim to covid-19, meaning the total deaths this year may not be anything alarming
I don't think that is right. 2019/20 looked like a pretty average year according to those charts.
?
Is there a better version of that plot, I can't see what the text is. I was referring to the graphs at the top of his blog, where 2019/20 lies smack in the middle of the rest of the years.
So the French figures looked good today. obviously excluding the 884 deaths which was a lump sum since the start of the outbreak (they weren't measuring the care home deaths at the time). New infections at about +2000 and deaths under 500. just a blip or a sign of the growth rate slowing in France, which would indicate the country managing to avoid being than Italy and Spain?
I have done some negative binomial time series modelling on the UK deaths figures (ie Poisson regression with overdispersion and possibly serial dependencies) and the thing that struck me is how big the "plus or minus" is on any given day just due to random variation, let alone the uncertainty in the estimation itself.
For example a very basic constant-growth model for the UK data suggests deaths are growing at about 25% per day but that comes with a degree of uncertainty (21% to 28% daily growth is the 95% confidence interval). But the model's predictions for the next 3 days are:
730 deaths (95% prediction interval 400 to 1100) 910 deaths (95% prediction interval 520 to 1400) 1100 deaths (95% prediction interval 620 to 1800)
So even if tomorrow the number of UK deaths falls to 450 or jumps over 1000 for the first time, it doesn't necessarily indicate a substantial departure from trend.
The minimum kind of variation you'd expect for a count data series would be if it were Poisson distributed, so comes with a standard deviation approximating the square root of the current count (eg a figure of exactly 400 should be taken with a pinch of salt because it could quite easily by chance have gone one or two standard deviations either way, and since one standard deviation would be 20ish it's probably best read as "320ish to 480ish, but probably in the region 360 to 440").
But every model I tried showed quite substantial overdispersion (hence a negative binomial rather than Poisson distribution) and for that constant growth model it's so bad that the standard deviation should be about one quarter of the count, for reasonably large count sizes - so you would need to read a count of 400 as likely coming with plus or minus 100 of random variation, or even plus or minus 200 if you go out to two standard deviations either way.
Basically it isn't worth getting super excited about a day or even a couple of days of data!
"'Ere, there's a bloke at the door distributing Poissons. What shall I do?"
That plan for killing off the oldie Tory vote - it may need some tweaking, Momentumites...
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
I’m not at all surprised death rates of OAPs are down. The lockdown and social distancing measures will have reduced the chance of passing on lots of other diseases, as well as reducing deaths by car crashes etc.
Check the date range, the stats are from before the lockdown even started.
It seems to me, maybe I am misjudging it, that the mild winter and lack of deaths from flu in Europe left a lot of vulnerable people alive that might have been expected to die in a normal year, and generally they are the ones falling victim to covid-19, meaning the total deaths this year may not be anything alarming
I don't think that is right. 2019/20 looked like a pretty average year according to those charts.
?
Is there a better version of that plot, I can't see what the text is. I was referring to the graphs at the top of his blog, where 2019/20 lies smack in the middle of the rest of the years.
It’s the last one on his blog I think
Also this one
Ah, I scrolled down and could see it. That does look low, but that seems inconsistent with the earlier graph showing total deaths as being pretty similar to the previous years. The difference for those two curves on the UK plot is 3,300. I'm sorry to say that a lot more than that are going to die because of this disease.
According to my daughter, the cost of green veg has gone up. Wholesalers are saying that less is getting picked because of the 2-metre rule and because of much stricter border controls leading to delays. The wholesale cost of a head of cauliflower has gone up to £1.80 from 50p normally - the highest it’s been in decades.
Still her pizza takeaway business is taking lots of orders: it’s the only pizza takeaway place between Workington and Ulverston.
And please no jokes about pineapples. She needs all the business she can get.
Wait til you see what's happening to the price of rice.
We joke about the proles hoarding TP, but whole countries are starting to hoard food...
On a tangent, I lost my first acquaintance to the virus today, someone I worked with, now in his seventies. The first of many I suspect, unfortunately. He'll be missed. I also know several people who lost their jobs in the last 48 hours. Grim.
Workshopping ideas on how to open a stubborn wine bottle. A job PB was made for.
I knew I could count on you guys. I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
It's a shame @SeanT is not online. I'm sure we will be hearing tales of opening a wine bottle using only a narwhal's tusk somewhere in northern Canada.
A few years ago my then girlfriend showed me how to heat tongs to a zillion degrees and rip off the bottle top by melting the glass. The trouble is you need a brazier, etc
In extremis I have simply smashed a bottle open and drunk the liquid through a reasonably clean cloth - a shirt or tee shirt - to sieve out the broken glass.
I have also heard the shoe/wall method works, but have never tried it.
I generally don’t get into this situation these days as I travel with about four corkscrews variously placed. Ditto big alarming knives.
I carry a big nasty knife with me always, since this plague kicked in
Carrying a big nasty knife says to anyone you meet: you have the right to kill me.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
You went to cheltenham festival. If I meet you I’d be able to batter you to a pulp on the basis your IQ is clearly sub 70
If you look at the data coming into the Bevan hospital in Gwent-just over 2 weeks ago, the Stereophonics played 2 capacity gigs at the Cardiff 02- apparently pics of the sold out in this indoor gig were the most shared inside China....
It's the Lombardy equivalent.... Atlanta vs Valencia (played on the 19th Feb).... ..lots of aysmptomtic spreaders who travelled in on joint cars etc.....and more importantly left in joint cars.
The Stereophonics gig was nearly a month later....and Gwent is our hotspot.....
With due respect, however misjudged the Stereos gig was, I dont think it has a lot to do with the Gwent hotspot. Apparently someone from the local Health board came back from Italy, unknowingly with the virus and he is believed to be the start of the epidemic in that area. Add to that the close proximity of the terraced valley houses and a close knit community is probably the real cause of the hot spot there.
Every hot spot has patient zero. It doesn’t mean that patient zero HAS to then spread it to thousands.
What you need for that is big crowds of people, rammed together, at, say, a concert or a race festival; that’ll do it. They will take the bug, and make sure it is widely dispersed
Cf the spring breakers in America.
That was the official line from Gwent. I agree though that gigs like Cheltenham are guaranteed to cause massive virus spread.
I've been posting here since those gigs my worries for South Wales....
At what point will those who attended that gig or any Cheltenham day be off the hook if they’ve not got symptoms?
On topic: Thank goodness for the internet. Think how much worse it would have been even five years ago, when download speeds and availability were so much worse, or ten years ago when much of this wouldn't have been possible at all.
Chez Nabavi we've been spoilt for choice. We watched the two guvnors tonight, which was great fun. Last night we watched the free streaming of the magnificent 2007 Barber of Seville from the Met, with a first class cast led by Joyce DiDonato in prime voice. On Tuesday we had a dose of mitteleuropäische angst with Jenufa from Brno. Before that: Die Walkúre and parts of Siegfried and Götterdämmerung again from the Met, and a superb Lucia di Lammermoor also from the Met. Treats to come include Le Nozze di Figaro from Garsngton, and more goodies from the Met.
Meanwhile there are books to read, a bit of light work to do during the day, the garden, fine wines .... I think we can hack this lockdown business...
But at the same time my heart goes out to those stuck in flats, perhaps with young children, and money worries, not to mention those families directly hit by the awful virus, in some cases not even able to mourn their dead properly. It's a surreal time at best, and horrific for many. Kudos to the NHS and care workers, and all others in the front line.
I'm not trying to be a contrarian just for the sake of it, but I think if this had happened 10 or 20 years ago people probably would have been saying to themselves: "Aren't we lucky — we've got all these DVDs, CDs, videos, records, cassette tapes and desktop computer games to play or use over the next 3 months. And national and international phone calls are enormously cheaper than they were a few years ago".
On topic: Thank goodness for the internet. Think how much worse it would have been even five years ago, when download speeds and availability were so much worse, or ten years ago when much of this wouldn't have been possible at all.
Chez Nabavi we've been spoilt for choice. We watched the two guvnors tonight, which was great fun. Last night we watched the free streaming of the magnificent 2007 Barber of Seville from the Met, with a first class cast led by Joyce DiDonato in prime voice. On Tuesday we had a dose of mitteleuropäische angst with Jenufa from Brno. Before that: Die Walkúre and parts of Siegfried and Götterdämmerung again from the Met, and a superb Lucia di Lammermoor also from the Met. Treats to come include Le Nozze di Figaro from Garsngton, and more goodies from the Met.
Meanwhile there are books to read, a bit of light work to do during the day, the garden, fine wines .... I think we can hack this lockdown business...
But at the same time my heart goes out to those stuck in flats, perhaps with young children, and money worries, not to mention those families directly hit by the awful virus, in some cases not even able to mourn their dead properly. It's a surreal time at best, and horrific for many. Kudos to the NHS and care workers, and all others in the front line.
I'm not trying to be a contrarian just for the sake of it, but I think if this had happened 10 or 20 years ago people would have been thinking to themselves: "Aren't we lucky — we've got all these DVDs, CDs, videos, records, cassette tapes and desktop computer games to play or use over the next 3 months. And national and international phone calls are enormously cheaper than they were a few years ago".
Business would be buggered though. Collaborative working tools mean my industry is more or less able to carry on as normal, that simply wouldn't have been possible ten years ago.
I'd like to engage the collective wisdom of PB please 🙂
I have elderly relatives who insist on going to the shops to get shopping/newspaper, etc. They say they feel happy and comfortable going to the "elderly hour" at the supermarket. I tell them this enemy is invisible and they could feel totally comfortable, but they are still putting themselves in harm's way. I'm more than happy to do all this stuff for them - order their shopping online with click and collect and leave it at their front door (I have slots booked already for myself). They say it's too much hassle for me, I shouldn't go out of my way.
How do you get through to them? This is driving me nuts!
I honestly don't know if you will, unless they would listen to a friend who is a medic (?)
Perhaps vigorously point out local casualties, esp. close to home, as they occur.
Check how well you do with online ordering. AFAICS the only one left with gettable slots except for those who count as extremely vulnerable is ASDA, who release them at around midnight and you have to pounce.
I had Morrisons send me an "on it's way" email at 6pm last night for 8-9 delivery. No delivery. Email at midnight "we could not fulfil your order so we have cancelled it". That was an order placed 12 days ago.
I would be back to my local small Tesco or Coop for milk and veg, though I have a few offers from friends to shop for me.
Even though I am in the vulnerable (not very vulnerable) group I have been relaxed ish so far, but I am now hunkering down for to see how this goes as the stats are going beserk, and we (East Mids) are getting more local reports having been really quiet.
So the French figures looked good today. obviously excluding the 884 deaths which was a lump sum since the start of the outbreak (they weren't measuring the care home deaths at the time). New infections at about +2000 and deaths under 500. just a blip or a sign of the growth rate slowing in France, which would indicate the country managing to avoid being than Italy and Spain?
I have done some negative binomial time series modelling on the UK deaths figures (ie Poisson regression with overdispersion and possibly serial dependencies) and the thing that struck me is how big the "plus or minus" is on any given day just due to random variation, let alone the uncertainty in the estimation itself.
For example a very basic constant-growth model for the UK data suggests deaths are growing at about 25% per day but that comes with a degree of uncertainty (21% to 28% daily growth is the 95% confidence interval). But the model's predictions for the next 3 days are:
730 deaths (95% prediction interval 400 to 1100) 910 deaths (95% prediction interval 520 to 1400) 1100 deaths (95% prediction interval 620 to 1800)
So even if tomorrow the number of UK deaths falls to 450 or jumps over 1000 for the first time, it doesn't necessarily indicate a substantial departure from trend.
The minimum kind of variation you'd expect for a count data series would be if it were Poisson distributed, so comes with a standard deviation approximating the square root of the current count (eg a figure of exactly 400 should be taken with a pinch of salt because it could quite easily by chance have gone one or two standard deviations either way, and since one standard deviation would be 20ish it's probably best read as "320ish to 480ish, but probably in the region 360 to 440").
But every model I tried showed quite substantial overdispersion (hence a negative binomial rather than Poisson distribution) and for that constant growth model it's so bad that the standard deviation should be about one quarter of the count, for reasonably large count sizes - so you would need to read a count of 400 as likely coming with plus or minus 100 of random variation, or even plus or minus 200 if you go out to two standard deviations either way.
Basically it isn't worth getting super excited about a day or even a couple of days of data!
"'Ere, there's a bloke at the door distributing Poissons. What shall I do?"
"Tell him to bugger off....."
"Yeah...bugger off! Standard deviant...."
Hah!
Before the resident statisticians complain (think @viewcode still lurks here), provisos apply to the above: eg these uncertainties are actually somewhat asymmetric rather than plus or minus a constant, in principle it should be the current level of the mean ("lambda", as estimated from the trend) rather than the most recent count that the variation should be measured from, the formula for the standard deviation in the case when the overdispersion coefficient is 0.065 as it was in my simple example should really be the square root of (lambda plus 0.065 times the square of lambda) but for large values of lambda that's conveniently surprisingly close to one quarter of lambda... much of this post is statistically simplified in order to get across my central point which is just how much "plus or minus" you need to read into any given day's figures before attributing it to an interesting change in trend.
The best knife in the world in terms of value for money
Plus tobasco, soy sauce, three spare credit cards (ready to go) and an emergency bottle of single malt
That's not an EDC knife in the UK. 3.5" blade, locking open, pseudo-flick knife deployment and tactical locking - you would need a damn good lawful excuse for having it in public, never mind in a town centre or pub.
If you don't I think it is mandatory year of porridge for getting caught twice. If you are lucky they will confiscate and give you a caution for the first offence.
Get something legal if you are treating it as an EDC.
Comments
You would need to have Sky of course..
Currently watching Game of Thrones back from the beginning. Work meant I never had time to watch the final season when it was aired and been a couple of year since I saw the penultimate series so now I'm house bound due to the virus rewatching it from the start to the end. Please no spoilers!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52126735
I have elderly relatives who insist on going to the shops to get shopping/newspaper, etc. They say they feel happy and comfortable going to the "elderly hour" at the supermarket. I tell them this enemy is invisible and they could feel totally comfortable, but they are still putting themselves in harm's way. I'm more than happy to do all this stuff for them - order their shopping online with click and collect and leave it at their front door (I have slots booked already for myself). They say it's too much hassle for me, I shouldn't go out of my way.
How do you get through to them? This is driving me nuts!
I will try it tomorrow in advance of a facetime date.
I have just finished reading the Millennium Trilogy (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) and it was bl**dy brilliant. Each novel better than its predecessor
(Yes it worked and no I wasn't the favourite.)
Given Osborne's links to China Leader of the Opposition Andy Burnham might be running him close in the GE postponed to the autumn this year due to Covid 19
It seems naive to think that infection rates would not have continued on an upward path if there had been no measures to stop infection in Italy,
But yes, it worked. And with very few taps. For what it's worth, he hit it very, very hard, maybe four or five times. So I think some force is required to make this method work.
You seem to think very much in ones and zeros. Either something works, or it doesn't.
The reality is that lots of things work to a greater or lesser extent. You will not get the same viral load from a CV-19 cougher/sneezer at seven yards you do at one yard. Because physics.
You also have to be big and nasty. Which you manifestly are not.
https://hectordrummond.com/
AS LONG AS they let you do it for them for the next few weeks.
Otherwise, there's a very real risk it will be just the one of them, doing the shopping for one... Now, is that fair on the other, the one who doesn't make it?
Plenty of Anglicans like myself and my partner were also clapping NHS workers at 8pm tonight anyway
For context, there were a few tens of deaths per day two weeks ago. We're now up to almost 600.
Been phoning some oldies in lock-down tonight. Remarkably sanguine. Chipper even. One lot were off to go and bang pots and pans on their balcony at 8.
Even allowing for the London, Sheffield, South Wales, W Mids hotspots our outbreak is much more evenly national across the whole UK than Italy's ever was or, indeed, America's is.
If only you had a bunch of lawyers with lots of time on their hands, to give you a few pointers to the answers....
It's the Lombardy equivalent.... Atlanta vs Valencia (played on the 19th Feb).... ..lots of aysmptomtic spreaders who travelled in on joint cars etc.....and more importantly left in joint cars.
The Stereophonics gig was nearly a month later....and Gwent is our hotspot.....
Let’s see what review team back with. Maybe move towards public face covering, mask or scarf, perhaps some routine for dealing with outside bling clean watches, phones rings as soon as come back to house with hand washes either side.
It’s been all too polite and quiet in nighthawks tonight.
Edit: Darkness induced apathy can be a real issue with some of these works. Though I read one this evening called Blackwing billed as from the 'publishers who brought you Joe Abercrombie'. Weird, and a bit too heavy on the made up lore at the start to make it easy to get in to, but turned out pretty decent.
Apparently someone from the local Health board came back from Italy, unknowingly with the virus and he is believed to be the start of the epidemic in that area. Add to that the close proximity of the terraced valley houses and a close knit community is probably the real cause of the hot spot there.
Chez Nabavi we've been spoilt for choice. We watched the two guvnors tonight, which was great fun. Last night we watched the free streaming of the magnificent 2007 Barber of Seville from the Met, with a first class cast led by Joyce DiDonato in prime voice. On Tuesday we had a dose of mitteleuropäische angst with Jenufa from Brno. Before that: Die Walkúre and parts of Siegfried and Götterdämmerung again from the Met, and a superb Lucia di Lammermoor also from the Met. Treats to come include Le Nozze di Figaro from Garsngton, and more goodies from the Met.
Meanwhile there are books to read, a bit of light work to do during the day, the garden, fine wines .... I think we can hack this lockdown business...
But at the same time my heart goes out to those stuck in flats, perhaps with young children, and money worries, not to mention those families directly hit by the awful virus, in some cases not even able to mourn their dead properly. It's a surreal time at best, and horrific for many. Kudos to the NHS and care workers, and all others in the front line.
I didn't realise that . . . I hope you had a good time!
That is all.
Bergamo was almost undoubtedly fuelled by the match against Valencia on the 19th February where convoys of fans came in on buses....which led to Lomabardy being the epicentre after the 15th March.....
The two Stereophonics gigs were nearly a month later than the Atlanta match.....which means the eye of the storm is coming the end of next week.....I hope not....I really do,
Still her pizza takeaway business is taking lots of orders: it’s the only pizza takeaway place between Workington and Ulverston.
And please no jokes about pineapples. She needs all the business she can get.
I agree though that gigs like Cheltenham are guaranteed to cause massive virus spread.
For example a very basic constant-growth model for the UK data suggests deaths are growing at about 25% per day but that comes with a degree of uncertainty (21% to 28% daily growth is the 95% confidence interval). But the model's predictions for the next 3 days are:
730 deaths (95% prediction interval 400 to 1100)
910 deaths (95% prediction interval 520 to 1400)
1100 deaths (95% prediction interval 620 to 1800)
So even if tomorrow the number of UK deaths falls to 450 or jumps over 1000 for the first time, it doesn't necessarily indicate a substantial departure from trend.
The minimum kind of variation you'd expect for a count data series would be if it were Poisson distributed, so comes with a standard deviation approximating the square root of the current count (eg a figure of exactly 400 should be taken with a pinch of salt because it could quite easily by chance have gone one or two standard deviations either way, and since one standard deviation would be 20ish it's probably best read as "320ish to 480ish, but probably in the region 360 to 440").
But every model I tried showed quite substantial overdispersion (hence a negative binomial rather than Poisson distribution) and for that constant growth model it's so bad that the standard deviation should be about one quarter of the count, for reasonably large count sizes - so you would need to read a count of 400 as likely coming with plus or minus 100 of random variation, or even plus or minus 200 if you go out to two standard deviations either way.
Basically it isn't worth getting super excited about a day or even a couple of days of data!
https://news.sky.com/video/south-africas-first-day-of-lockdown-ends-in-chaos-11965055
Does she deliver to Devon?
Also this one
"Tell him to bugger off....."
"Yeah...bugger off! Standard deviant...."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/food-security-fears-starting-to-threaten-rice-exports-in-asia
We joke about the proles hoarding TP, but whole countries are starting to hoard food...
On a tangent, I lost my first acquaintance to the virus today, someone I worked with, now in his seventies. The first of many I suspect, unfortunately. He'll be missed. I also know several people who lost their jobs in the last 48 hours. Grim.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245861418299052032?s=20
Perhaps vigorously point out local casualties, esp. close to home, as they occur.
Check how well you do with online ordering. AFAICS the only one left with gettable slots except for those who count as extremely vulnerable is ASDA, who release them at around midnight and you have to pounce.
I had Morrisons send me an "on it's way" email at 6pm last night for 8-9 delivery. No delivery. Email at midnight "we could not fulfil your order so we have cancelled it". That was an order placed 12 days ago.
I would be back to my local small Tesco or Coop for milk and veg, though I have a few offers from friends to shop for me.
Even though I am in the vulnerable (not very vulnerable) group I have been relaxed ish so far, but I am now hunkering down for to see how this goes as the stats are going beserk, and we (East Mids) are getting more local reports having been really quiet.
Before the resident statisticians complain (think @viewcode still lurks here), provisos apply to the above: eg these uncertainties are actually somewhat asymmetric rather than plus or minus a constant, in principle it should be the current level of the mean ("lambda", as estimated from the trend) rather than the most recent count that the variation should be measured from, the formula for the standard deviation in the case when the overdispersion coefficient is 0.065 as it was in my simple example should really be the square root of (lambda plus 0.065 times the square of lambda) but for large values of lambda that's conveniently surprisingly close to one quarter of lambda... much of this post is statistically simplified in order to get across my central point which is just how much "plus or minus" you need to read into any given day's figures before attributing it to an interesting change in trend.
If you don't I think it is mandatory year of porridge for getting caught twice. If you are lucky they will confiscate and give you a caution for the first offence.
Get something legal if you are treating it as an EDC.