politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest slot from Stocky: Why it should be made clear that lockd

eristdoof said:

"Choice One: Many, many dying (let things be) "

Ignores that fact that many many dying will also mean millions will be economically unproductive and those who die and are of working age are removed from the economy, most of whom will have specialised and valuable skills.

The hit to the economy under choce one is just as unknown as under choice two.

Also, after lockdown, if a bunch of hotels at a tourist hotspot have failed... well, hey, the beaches there will still be just as good, the business case for starting new hotels in the same spot is just as good. If a business is fundamentally good, it should be reborn from the ashes- perhaps under a different name and with a different owner, but so what?

Can't say the same about the people who die.

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

It is all so simple for the keyboard warriors BJO

What HMG needs (imminent second world war reference klaxon) is a Beaverbrook-like Minister of Production to coordinate manufacture, supply and distribution.

As I posted down thread, this is where I find it slightly odd. On other things, the government have been very pro-active from expanding capacity, ventilators, AI tech, getting chemical companies to quadruple oxygen production.

But for some reason, if Peston is to be believed, they haven't been bothering chemical companies to make reagents etc.

Either they don't really want to expand capacity for some reason or there is more going on behind the scenes we don't know about.

I mean Robert Peston is the man who recently asked why people dying of coronavirus weren’t allowed to leave hospital so I have some doubts about his comprehension abilities...

That said I hope if it is a problem they are setting about rectifying it. As someone rightly says below at least with a free press we can shine a light on any deficiencies and hopefully get them resolved.

ABZ said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

To be fair, I don't think, amongst the general population, it is costing lives. People (even in countries testing a lot, like Germany) are presumably only tested when they display symptoms and here such people are being asked to remain home and isolate.

The real issue is the inability to properly test medical staff and carers. There it would make a huge difference and is the biggest problem. The mass testing in the population would not make such a difference at this stage I think.

The idea of "Testing, Testing Testing" is that the more positive cases that are identified early, the less the diesease will spread. Not only will the identified person be in self isolation earlier, the chances that his/her contacts fail to be identified and spread the virus on is greatly reduced

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

It is all so simple for the keyboard warriors BJO

It must be relatively simple after all almost Every other Govt seems to have managed it

At what point will a defend at all costs warrior like yourself admit Govt mistakes.

Well the Welsh government haven't managed it either. They promised 5000 a day by now and doing 800.

And the Spanish deployed a load of tests that were only 30% accurate in rush to expand capacity.

There is clearly an issue.

Well the Welsh Government are shit as well then.

There you are Big G Philip Thompson and all the cheerleaders its easy to criticise your own side when they get the most important thing wrong.

PT you are in detention as you failed to show your over 10,000 already workings (which your own Govt now admits it hasnt reached BTW)

ABZ said:

ukpaul said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1245284388004298752

Hmm, having just had a look at his Wikipedia entry, he doesn’t exactly seem to be a go-to source for accuracy over a number of past incidents. Caution required, I think.

The numbers are accurate in this case: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/comix-impact-of-physical-distance-measures-on-transmission-in-the-UK.html

Will take another few days for it to really manifest in the admissions to hospital, as mentioned, of course.

Thanks, a much more reliable source. Older age groups really look to have got this but there’s a real danger lurking in that under eighteens are still at about 3.0 (better than the previous 8.0 but not totally under control). Maybe the message getting through that children are in danger, and still putting others in danger, is needed.

kinabalu said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

Testgate gets steadily murkier and more damaging for the government. And you really have been the Woodward and Bernstein on it, I have to say.

Why is anyone surprised, given Gove is in charge of it?

numbertwelve said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

It is all so simple for the keyboard warriors BJO

What HMG needs (imminent second world war reference klaxon) is a Beaverbrook-like Minister of Production to coordinate manufacture, supply and distribution.

As I posted down thread, this is where I find it slightly odd. On other things, the government have been very pro-active from expanding capacity, ventilators, AI tech, getting chemical companies to quadruple oxygen production.

But for some reason, if Peston is to be believed, they haven't been bothering chemical companies to make reagents etc.

Either they don't really want to expand capacity for some reason or there is more going on behind the scenes we don't know about.

I mean Robert Peston is the man who recently asked why people dying of coronavirus weren’t allowed to leave hospital so I have some doubts about his comprehension abilities...

That said I hope if it is a problem they are setting about rectifying it. As someone rightly says below at least with a free press we can shine a light on any deficiencies and hopefully get them resolved.

I find it very strange. I don't think it is money related either, as compared to the amount they are spending on everything else it is small beer.

One reason I can thing of is that they were promised that the anti-body tests would be ready to be deployed by now. Then they could quickly go through NHS staff. Now, these tests seem to be taking longer and longer and the timeline becoming far less certain. I wonder if they have found the manufacturer has over-promised and accuracy is really bad on them.

TOPPING said:

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Quick question, how do workers from home avoid ending up as fat as houses ?

I'm being disciplined to avoid the fridge - not least because running out of food and needing to get more is massively inconvienient now, but it's got a constant underlying call...

I can see the nation's waistlines expanding.

Don't snack. Eat 3 moderate meals a day and do *some* exercise.

Or - alternatively.

Top three snacks (in no particular order):

1) Pringles
2) A whole packet of custard creams
3) Pistachio nuts (salted)

LOL

I find that those small tomatoes are v good - 20 calories per 100g so go crazy on them.

Grapes are also good to snack on. Willpower to stop snacking between meals I find as difficult as giving up smoking.

kinabalu said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

Testgate gets steadily murkier and more damaging for the government. And you really have been the Woodward and Bernstein on it, I have to say.

If they roll it out in the next few days, blame a civil servant for Gove having the wrong info (sorry civil servant), they'll be fine.

I think the lives cost from not having the tests are more of the type in the suicide and murder category, rather than from coronavirus. Once testing is rolled out fully, I don't expect lockdown to be enforceable.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

It is all so simple for the keyboard warriors BJO

What HMG needs (imminent second world war reference klaxon) is a Beaverbrook-like Minister of Production to coordinate manufacture, supply and distribution.

Instead we have Big(theGovtcandonowrong)G

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

RobD said:

You have a rather strange view of Boris.

It was a joke, Rob. My own little April fool if you like. But it is rooted in a view of "Boris" that is not strange at all. Quite the contrary. It touches on the very essence of the man. He finds humour in grave situations. He's famous for it. There are countless examples.

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On banks, they have cancelled the dividends but are arguing over bankers bonuses.

Somethings never change, time to put 100% emergency tax on all these bonuses

Bonuses are part of wages for many of those employees. Do you want a 100% tax on other sectors employees wages?

Are you defending bankers bonuses at a time of economic armageddon

If the banks can afford to pay their staff their bonuses then yes absolutely. I'd say the same for any other business in the country.

If they can't, then no.

If they cannot pay dividends saving 9.5 billion then the bankers bonuses should and must go

So shareholders take a higher priority than staff?

Nobody told me you'd converted to socialism, Phil!

LOL I'm not.

But people fail to understand how dividends work sometimes. If shareholders forego their dividends then they don't lose that money, the dividend stays within the business they own the shares to and is there to be used by their own business in the future if required - or can be paid out in the future as a dividend. The idea the shareholders are losing out is the most short-termist garbage imaginable.

Worth noting that if you'd eg bought Amazon stock a long time ago you wouldn't have been getting dividends from that but would have gained a lot of wealth.

If you fail to pay the staff their wages they've worked for that's a completely different matter. The staff won't get their wages made up in the future.

It is not staff we are talking about, it is the CEO's and others refusing to resile their bonuses that is just so wrong

@TOPPING in addition to my point about how we would react if every flu death had been reported as Coronavirus deaths are, what if every day this flu season had been reported as the massive reduction it was? I think it is possible we are getting all the bad news in big headlines whilst the good news went unreported and forgotten

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On banks, they have cancelled the dividends but are arguing over bankers bonuses.

Somethings never change, time to put 100% emergency tax on all these bonuses

Bonuses are part of wages for many of those employees. Do you want a 100% tax on other sectors employees wages?

Are you defending bankers bonuses at a time of economic armageddon

If the banks can afford to pay their staff their bonuses then yes absolutely. I'd say the same for any other business in the country.

If they can't, then no.

If they cannot pay dividends saving 9.5 billion then the bankers bonuses should and must go

So shareholders take a higher priority than staff?

Nobody told me you'd converted to socialism, Phil!

LOL I'm not.

But people fail to understand how dividends work sometimes. If shareholders forego their dividends then they don't lose that money, the dividend stays within the business they own the shares to and is there to be used by their own business in the future if required - or can be paid out in the future as a dividend. The idea the shareholders are losing out is the most short-termist garbage imaginable.

Worth noting that if you'd eg bought Amazon stock a long time ago you wouldn't have been getting dividends from that but would have gained a lot of wealth.

If you fail to pay the staff their wages they've worked for that's a completely different matter. The staff won't get their wages made up in the future.

It is not staff we are talking about, it is the CEO's and others refusing to resile their bonuses that is just so wrong

That's not what you said, unless you're being overly vague with "and others". You said "bankers bonuses" not "CEOs bonuses".

If you mean executives then say executives, not bankers, because there are thousands of bankers employed by their banks and due bonuses - why should they be cancelled if they've reached the conditions set to earn them?

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

The number of ventilators per head most likely eg South Korea and Germany are low down that table on death rate and have 7 acute hospital beds per 1000 people to 2 per 1000 in Italy

bigjohnowls said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

It is all so simple for the keyboard warriors BJO

It must be relatively simple after all almost Every other Govt seems to have managed it

At what point will a defend at all costs warrior like yourself admit Govt mistakes.

Well the Welsh government haven't managed it either. They promised 5000 a day by now and doing 800.

And the Spanish deployed a load of tests that were only 30% accurate in rush to expand capacity.

There is clearly an issue.

Well the Welsh Government are shit as well then.

There you are Big G Philip Thompson and all the cheerleaders its easy to criticise your own side when they get the most important thing wrong.

PT you are in detention as you failed to show your over 10,000 already workings (which your own Govt now admits it hasnt reached BTW)

Again, do you ever read my posts, I have been banging on about the tests for weeks. Way before you came on every day and said Test, Test, Test.

I said from the start we should follow the SK model. I also criticized the government yesterday that they intend to make an app that is voluntary. If we want to be like South Korea, it needs to be compulsory.

I don't know why they haven't managed to ramp up capacity. There is clearly an issue here, I don't know what it is.

We don't have masses of PCR machines, but we aren't using them all. There is a claim UK chemical companies could make reagents, but haven't been asked to. I don't know if it is true or why....when they have been asked to ramp up other things like oxygen.

Do you ever read mine?

Have i called you a cheerleader in my post?

In response to my post,

"There you are Big G Philip Thompson and all the cheerleaders...

Sounds like you are.

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

We should be able to manage the physical health of the country by locking down and stocking up on ventilators as we approach the Covid 19 peak and the economic situation by then easing off on lockdown as the peak passes and moving to the South Korean model of mass testing

I don't disagree with much of that though I think we are still a very long way from "mass" testing at this point.

The key words here are "easing off" - Stocky seems to favour the lifting of most restrictions but I don't see anything changing until early May. We need to see clear demonstrative evidence of declining numbers of cases and increasing number of tests over a period of time.

We also need to consider what we should do in the event of a second or third wave of this virus later in the year or early next.

If we can get testing capabilities up to hundreds of thousands per day then it should be possible to neuter or manage a second or third wave following the South Korean model of tracking and tracing.

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

Pulpstar said:

One of my friends cleans for a food processing facility (So obviously key), she reckons workers are dropping like flies there and middle management is even on the floor now. Having observed the (lack of) social distancing at the bus stop outside the facility first hand I can't say I'm surprised. She's trying to keep as safe as she can there, but it's a nightmare in her words.

Along with those videos from ASOS and PLT online I reckon the herd immunity strategy may well be ripping through the warehouse staff of the UK right now.

My business (food manufacturing) currently has zero cases not even self-isolation. Shifts physically kept separate to reduce cross-transmission, senior management like me ready to deploy into the factory if needed.

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

It's better to use that capacity on NHS staff at the moment.

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

I think this is where it isn't clear. In one of the press conferences, an egg head did sort of allude to that this was the case (and or some sort of community sampling was going on), but it was crystal clear they didn't want all the public demanding tests in the way Trump stated everybody who wants one can have one.

stodge said:

Stereotomy said:

Also, after lockdown, if a bunch of hotels at a tourist hotspot have failed... well, hey, the beaches there will still be just as good, the business case for starting new hotels in the same spot is just as good. If a business is fundamentally good, it should be reborn from the ashes- perhaps under a different name and with a different owner, but so what?

Can't say the same about the people who die.

This is the economic Darwinist argument and it recognises that many businesses fail even when times are good because they are poorly run or a competitor comes along doing it better and cheaper or a better widget is designed elsewhere.

As we've seen the supermarkets took on thousands of extra staff and were able to recruit from a pool of those laid off by other employers. Sunak seems anxious to preserve, conserve and protect but capitalism is and always been brutal and adversarial.

As we saw with manufacturing industry in the UK, nothing has a right to exist in perpetuity. We saw manufacturing wither and die and the response was to allow new businesses to emerge - it wasn't pretty, indeed it was painful but throughout history out of such disasters new opportunities have arisen.

I am also of the opinion that poor businesses should go bankrupt. I disliked that in Germany two years ago private farmers were demanding a bail out from the federal government, because the wheat crop failed due to a drought. The farmers were happy to take the profits in other years but failed to make contingencies for a failed harvest, which happens in agriculture. If those farmers wanted federal bailouts, they should have to hand over 50% of their shares to the government (which could then be bought back later).

But I digress. Even I think that this sudden and almost total halt to the trade of so many businesses is so extreme that many very good companies, even ones with a decent financial buffer will be going to the wall. Governments acting proactively to minimise this is a good thing.

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

It is all so simple for the keyboard warriors BJO

It must be relatively simple after all almost Every other Govt seems to have managed it

At what point will a defend at all costs warrior like yourself admit Govt mistakes.

Well the Welsh government haven't managed it either. They promised 5000 a day by now and doing 800.

And the Spanish deployed a load of tests that were only 30% accurate in rush to expand capacity.

There is clearly an issue.

Well the Welsh Government are shit as well then.

There you are Big G Philip Thompson and all the cheerleaders its easy to criticise your own side when they get the most important thing wrong.

PT you are in detention as you failed to show your over 10,000 already workings (which your own Govt now admits it hasnt reached BTW)

If it is as simple as ordering the chemicals - why did the company that was contracting to do 5K tests a day for NHS Wales pull out, on the grounds they couldn't get the materials required?

Roche pulled out of the Wales order on the grounds that England offered more money.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-whitehall-takes-charges-of-tests-after-row-between-england-and-wales-11966406

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

My impression at the moment is that the 'the public are stupid proles, let's keep them in the dark' faction in Government is responsible. Gove has been royally shafted having to front this. Lucky Boris again. They'll want to have some good news or a good explanation later...

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

stodge said:

Stereotomy said:

Also, after lockdown, if a bunch of hotels at a tourist hotspot have failed... well, hey, the beaches there will still be just as good, the business case for starting new hotels in the same spot is just as good. If a business is fundamentally good, it should be reborn from the ashes- perhaps under a different name and with a different owner, but so what?

Can't say the same about the people who die.

This is the economic Darwinist argument and it recognises that many businesses fail even when times are good because they are poorly run or a competitor comes along doing it better and cheaper or a better widget is designed elsewhere.

As we've seen the supermarkets took on thousands of extra staff and were able to recruit from a pool of those laid off by other employers. Sunak seems anxious to preserve, conserve and protect but capitalism is and always been brutal and adversarial.

As we saw with manufacturing industry in the UK, nothing has a right to exist in perpetuity. We saw manufacturing wither and die and the response was to allow new businesses to emerge - it wasn't pretty, indeed it was painful but throughout history out of such disasters new opportunities have arisen.

Scandinavia, Germany, Netherlands and Canada have all steered very far clear of both economic and social darwinism over the last forty years. All are better placed to withstand the crisis than the UK as a result.

Germany has the same top income tax rate as the UK, the UK has the most statist healthcare system of all of those countries and Canada has contributions based only unemployment benefit unlike the UK

Yes, but I was talking as much more broadly about its social and economic model as healthcare. Our model in Britain makes the country particularly frail and vulnerable in a crisis such as this, as it did in 2008.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

It is all so simple for the keyboard warriors BJO

It must be relatively simple after all almost Every other Govt seems to have managed it

At what point will a defend at all costs warrior like yourself admit Govt mistakes.

Well the Welsh government haven't managed it either. They promised 5000 a day by now and doing 800.

And the Spanish deployed a load of tests that were only 30% accurate in rush to expand capacity.

There is clearly an issue.

Well the Welsh Government are shit as well then.

There you are Big G Philip Thompson and all the cheerleaders its easy to criticise your own side when they get the most important thing wrong.

PT you are in detention as you failed to show your over 10,000 already workings (which your own Govt now admits it hasnt reached BTW)

If it is as simple as ordering the chemicals - why did the company that was contracting to do 5K tests a day for NHS Wales pull out, on the grounds they couldn't get the materials required?

Roche pulled out of the Wales order on the grounds that England offered more money.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-whitehall-takes-charges-of-tests-after-row-between-england-and-wales-11966406

The reason they pulled out was that they prioritised the first, bigger order, when it became clear they couldn't get the material for both.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

I think this is where it isn't clear. In one of the press conferences, an egg head did sort of allude to that this was the case (and or some sort of community sampling was going on), but it was crystal clear they didn't want all the public demanding tests in the way Trump stated everybody who wants one can have one.

It wouldn't be random if it was done by people requesting tests.

MaxPB said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

It's better to use that capacity on NHS staff at the moment.

No doubt you know best.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fishing said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TOPPING said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

My biggest problem is not grazing, it is drinking too much coffee. I get up every 2hrs and temptation is always to make coffee, and if I am not careful, I end up 10 shots of espresso down come the evening.

Decaf everything is available now. Every morning I grind decaf beans for my cafetiere. You really wouldn't know the difference apart from the jolt, of course. But a lot of this stuff is habitual.

Decaf - No fun in that. That's like non-alcoholic beer :-)

I switched to decaf tea a couple of years ago and found myself sleeping much, much better.

Sleep...what's that?

It's when you dream, perchance.

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

stodge said:

Stereotomy said:

Also, after lockdown, if a bunch of hotels at a tourist hotspot have failed... well, hey, the beaches there will still be just as good, the business case for starting new hotels in the same spot is just as good. If a business is fundamentally good, it should be reborn from the ashes- perhaps under a different name and with a different owner, but so what?

Can't say the same about the people who die.

This is the economic Darwinist argument and it recognises that many businesses fail even when times are good because they are poorly run or a competitor comes along doing it better and cheaper or a better widget is designed elsewhere.

As we've seen the supermarkets took on thousands of extra staff and were able to recruit from a pool of those laid off by other employers. Sunak seems anxious to preserve, conserve and protect but capitalism is and always been brutal and adversarial.

As we saw with manufacturing industry in the UK, nothing has a right to exist in perpetuity. We saw manufacturing wither and die and the response was to allow new businesses to emerge - it wasn't pretty, indeed it was painful but throughout history out of such disasters new opportunities have arisen.

Scandinavia, Germany, Netherlands and Canada have all steered very far clear of both economic and social darwinism over the last forty years. All are better placed to withstand the crisis than the UK as a result.

Germany has the same top income tax rate as the UK, the UK has the most statist healthcare system of all of those countries and Canada has contributions based only unemployment benefit unlike the UK

Yes, but I was talking as much more broadly about its social and economic model as healthcare. Our model in Britain makes the country particularly frail and vulnerable in a crisis such as this, as it did in 2008.

Does it? The UK has a lower death rate per head than the Netherlands at the moment

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I sulspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

It would be statistically meaningless and a waste of critically valuable resources right now. Why waste a hundred tests when we need all the ones we have?

We'll never be short of ignorance and stupidity - that's for sure!

I think any substantial extention of the lockdown will be challenging. Fear will certainly quell some dissent but there are plenty of other social factors complicating assumed overall compliance. London is likely to prove problematic despite being a hotspot.

We live in a borough with the highest confirmed cases. Anecdotally from friends, neighbours & colleagues, it seems there is a substantial cluster of us that have been infected with coronavirus albeit without any conclusive testing. We've heard firsthand reports that in several essential services, staffing numbers are critically low with many off with symptoms of coronavirus. If there has been widespread infection occurring in some areas, the calls to extend the lockdown will not hold the same resonance.

Unfortunately, the lack of availability of testing outside hospital admissions along with the holdup of approved coronavirus antibody tests being made available, complicates this situation. Moreover, London has its own issues putting strain on families should they be told to comply with a lockdown extention. Will teenagers comply or could serious civil order issues ensue.

We have a young family and like many live in a small crowded flat. The toll on families in high-rise residential buildings must be even harder. The consequences of extending the lockdown should also take account of the strain on parents. Nevermind that parents are also being asked to self tutor their children at home whilst being expected to work from home.

@GideonWise revealed firsthand a predicament that can arise which crossed my mind as day by day each of us started getting symptons. Our children are in Key Stage 1. This will be replicated in many households when both parents, with young children, become sick and then worry about the children should they both deteroriate. My other half really struggled with the unrelenting tight chest symptoms & our experience of 111 is that it is overloaded. Most parents will naturally have to cope with taking care of their children when having the 'mild' symptoms including severe fatigue, shakes, severe pains that can linger for weeks. This predicament includes plenty in their 40s or even 50s, along with others with underlying health conditions and the many single parent families. Some won't have people to call on, with many grandparents being at risk whilst friends / neighbours may be hesitant to help as many children are asymptomatic but infectious.

We were still self-isolating as the lockdown came into force so have been at home longer than most. Judging from the families I'm hearing, people will really struggle to hold it together if the lockdown is extended and this is in an area where there is a consistent sound of sirens transporting people to either Kings or St Thomas.

RobD said:

Chris said:

MaxPB said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

It's better to use that capacity on NHS staff at the moment.

No doubt you know best.

Aren't you both offering advice as armchair epidemiologists? I'm sure the CMO will know how best to allocate what resources they have.

Good for you.

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I sulspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

It would be statistically meaningless and a waste of critically valuable resources right now. Why waste a hundred tests when we need all the ones we have?

We'll never be short of ignorance and stupidity - that's for sure!

Indeed but we are short of frontline NHS staff so why burn through tests randomly when we are desperate for them?

Once there's spare capacity then absolutely it should be a priority but when frontline NHS and care staff can't get tested it is not.

Chris said:

MaxPB said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

It's better to use that capacity on NHS staff at the moment.

No doubt you know best.

I have friends and family on the front line waiting for tests, they are currently sitting at home in isolation.

https://twitter.com/MarkCavendish/status/1245319550721306625

RobD said:

Chris said:

MaxPB said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

It's better to use that capacity on NHS staff at the moment.

No doubt you know best.

Aren't you both offering advice as armchair epidemiologists? I'm sure the CMO will know how best to allocate what resources they have.

I think COVID19 is still looked for in the winter respiratory virus panel, along with flu etc. I am not sure where the information can be accessed, but presumably PHE and CMO have it to hand.

rottenborough said:

Why didn't Cuomo run for Dems?

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1245115320286744579

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/18/chris-andrew-cuomo-joke-curfew-mom-sot-cpt-vpx.cnn

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eristdoof said:

TOPPING said:

Anyone know of any April Fools jokes at all anywhere? Or is the nation not in the mood...?

I saw an article yesterday about wild goats wandering freely in Llandudno and thought "if this was published tomorrow, I'd think it was an April fool's"

It is real and they come into town from the Great Orme quite often, but now they are having a grand old time eating hedges, plants and borders from home owners in the town

First we have plague, now hosts of rampant goats.

What is next in the apocalypse?

Didn't China have to contend with locusts recently?

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eristdoof said:

TOPPING said:

Anyone know of any April Fools jokes at all anywhere? Or is the nation not in the mood...?

I saw an article yesterday about wild goats wandering freely in Llandudno and thought "if this was published tomorrow, I'd think it was an April fool's"

It is real and they come into town from the Great Orme quite often, but now they are having a grand old time eating hedges, plants and borders from home owners in the town

First we have plague, now hosts of rampant goats.

What is next in the apocalypse?

Didn't China have to contend with locusts recently?

Central Africa did.

In "oh God you're serious this isn't an April Fool" news, Brother Pain and Princess Luxury are leaving Evil Scarecrow.

https://twitter.com/EvilScarecrowUK/status/1245304686321729542

eristdoof said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

Tne UK did a lot of random testing in early February and it was really useful. It showed that the prevelane of the disease accross the UK as a whole was as good as zero. The cases that had been found were either in Italy or China or had linkt to them.

I can understand the argument that at the moment you need all tests possible to be for peope with symptoms and contact of positive cases.

Do you have a link to this study? There goes the idea that everyone's bad cold over winter was coronavirus!

RobD said:

eristdoof said:

Chris said:

BigRich said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Some of it will be the delay in when the virus arrived/spreed in a nation, because there is often a 2 week lag between testing and death. and psoibly some other bits like the demographicks of a nation.

But I think its mostly an indication of how many people are being tested. the more you test the more miled cases you get, if you are only testing people who get to hospitall then a lot of your cases will die.

What would be good is to have this % on a graph against the % of people who are found to have the virus out of total number of tests, I think in the UK is about 35%
I suspect that would be linear.

Very difficult to understand why random testing isn't being done (if it isn't). Even 100 random tests a day would quite quickly give us a much better handle on how many cases there really are.

Tne UK did a lot of random testing in early February and it was really useful. It showed that the prevelane of the disease accross the UK as a whole was as good as zero. The cases that had been found were either in Italy or China or had linkt to them.

I can understand the argument that at the moment you need all tests possible to be for peope with symptoms and contact of positive cases.

Do you have a link to this study? There goes the idea that everyone's bad cold over winter was coronavirus!

Sadly, no it wouldn't.

1) The current test showing if you have the disease currently.
2) If you had had it and recovered, you wouldn't test positive on that test
3) The upcoming antibody detection test will show if you have had it and have immunity.

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

stodge said:

Stereotomy said:

Also, after lockdown, if a bunch of hotels at a tourist hotspot have failed... well, hey, the beaches there will still be just as good, the business case for starting new hotels in the same spot is just as good. If a business is fundamentally good, it should be reborn from the ashes- perhaps under a different name and with a different owner, but so what?

Can't say the same about the people who die.

This is the economic Darwinist argument and it recognises that many businesses fail even when times are good because they are poorly run or a competitor comes along doing it better and cheaper or a better widget is designed elsewhere.

As we've seen the supermarkets took on thousands of extra staff and were able to recruit from a pool of those laid off by other employers. Sunak seems anxious to preserve, conserve and protect but capitalism is and always been brutal and adversarial.

As we saw with manufacturing industry in the UK, nothing has a right to exist in perpetuity. We saw manufacturing wither and die and the response was to allow new businesses to emerge - it wasn't pretty, indeed it was painful but throughout history out of such disasters new opportunities have arisen.

Scandinavia, Germany, Netherlands and Canada have all steered very far clear of both economic and social darwinism over the last forty years. All are better placed to withstand the crisis than the UK as a result.

Germany has the same top income tax rate as the UK, the UK has the most statist healthcare system of all of those countries and Canada has contributions based only unemployment benefit unlike the UK

Yes, but I was talking as much more broadly about its social and economic model as healthcare. Our model in Britain makes the country particularly frail and vulnerable in a crisis such as this, as it did in 2008.

Does it? The UK has a lower death rate per head than the Netherlands at the moment

Economic and social frailty are not the same as the first casualty figures, however.

We also ended up with one of the lowest unemployment rates in western Europe after the 2008 crash, our flexible labour market helped

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On banks, they have cancelled the dividends but are arguing over bankers bonuses.

Somethings never change, time to put 100% emergency tax on all these bonuses

Bonuses are part of wages for many of those employees. Do you want a 100% tax on other sectors employees wages?

Are you defending bankers bonuses at a time of economic armageddon

If the banks can afford to pay their staff their bonuses then yes absolutely. I'd say the same for any other business in the country.

If they can't, then no.

If they cannot pay dividends saving 9.5 billion then the bankers bonuses should and must go

So shareholders take a higher priority than staff?

Nobody told me you'd converted to socialism, Phil!

LOL I'm not.

But people fail to understand how dividends work sometimes. If shareholders forego their dividends then they don't lose that money, the dividend stays within the business they own the shares to and is there to be used by their own business in the future if required - or can be paid out in the future as a dividend. The idea the shareholders are losing out is the most short-termist garbage imaginable.

Worth noting that if you'd eg bought Amazon stock a long time ago you wouldn't have been getting dividends from that but would have gained a lot of wealth.

If you fail to pay the staff their wages they've worked for that's a completely different matter. The staff won't get their wages made up in the future.

It is not staff we are talking about, it is the CEO's and others refusing to resile their bonuses that is just so wrong

That's not what you said, unless you're being overly vague with "and others". You said "bankers bonuses" not "CEOs bonuses".

If you mean executives then say executives, not bankers, because there are thousands of bankers employed by their banks and due bonuses - why should they be cancelled if they've reached the conditions set to earn them?

I am not talking about staff

Good. The staff are bankers though, that's where the bonuses are going to - CEOs I assume make up a small proportion of the bonuses.

HYUFD said:

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

stodge said:

Stereotomy said:

Also, after lockdown, if a bunch of hotels at a tourist hotspot have failed... well, hey, the beaches there will still be just as good, the business case for starting new hotels in the same spot is just as good. If a business is fundamentally good, it should be reborn from the ashes- perhaps under a different name and with a different owner, but so what?

Can't say the same about the people who die.

This is the economic Darwinist argument and it recognises that many businesses fail even when times are good because they are poorly run or a competitor comes along doing it better and cheaper or a better widget is designed elsewhere.

As we've seen the supermarkets took on thousands of extra staff and were able to recruit from a pool of those laid off by other employers. Sunak seems anxious to preserve, conserve and protect but capitalism is and always been brutal and adversarial.

As we saw with manufacturing industry in the UK, nothing has a right to exist in perpetuity. We saw manufacturing wither and die and the response was to allow new businesses to emerge - it wasn't pretty, indeed it was painful but throughout history out of such disasters new opportunities have arisen.

Scandinavia, Germany, Netherlands and Canada have all steered very far clear of both economic and social darwinism over the last forty years. All are better placed to withstand the crisis than the UK as a result.

Germany has the same top income tax rate as the UK, the UK has the most statist healthcare system of all of those countries and Canada has contributions based only unemployment benefit unlike the UK

That is an apples and Bratwurst comparison. Germany's health system and some other things are not financed by tax at all.

They are funded by public insurance

For the most part yes, but it is not tax, it is not called tax and it is not counted as a tax, but you were comparing tax rates.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Malmesbury said:

bigjohnowls said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see HMG now agree with BJO about testing!!

Unfortunately yesterdays excuse about reagent shortage has fallen apart already as the UK Chemical industry say they can supply but are still waiting for them to be ordered.

Similarly Labs with capacity are having to ring round the NHS to offer their services.

Its a fiasco that is costing lives

It is all so simple for the keyboard warriors BJO

It must be relatively simple after all almost Every other Govt seems to have managed it

At what point will a defend at all costs warrior like yourself admit Govt mistakes.

Well the Welsh government haven't managed it either. They promised 5000 a day by now and doing 800.

And the Spanish deployed a load of tests that were only 30% accurate in rush to expand capacity.

There is clearly an issue.

Well the Welsh Government are shit as well then.

There you are Big G Philip Thompson and all the cheerleaders its easy to criticise your own side when they get the most important thing wrong.

PT you are in detention as you failed to show your over 10,000 already workings (which your own Govt now admits it hasnt reached BTW)

If it is as simple as ordering the chemicals - why did the company that was contracting to do 5K tests a day for NHS Wales pull out, on the grounds they couldn't get the materials required?

Roche pulled out of the Wales order on the grounds that England offered more money.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-whitehall-takes-charges-of-tests-after-row-between-england-and-wales-11966406

That's not what the article says.

Roche decided to prioritise the larger order (presumably so they can fill it), so withdrew from the smaller one. That's a question of practicality and customer satisfaction, not money.

The 4 governments got together and agreed to procure centrally.

Exactly what should happen.

kamski said:

HYUFD said:

geoffw said:

This huge dispersion in death rates cannot be solely due to how cases and deaths are recorded. There must be something else explaining the 30-fold difference between Israel and Italy for example.

WORLD	Cases	Deaths	Death rate
Italy	106,128	12,443	11.72%
Spain	95,923	8,464	8.82%
Nethds	12,595	1,039	8.25%
UK	25,150	1,808	7.19%
France	52,128	3,523	6.76%
Iran	44,606	2,898	6.50%
Belgium	12,775	705	5.52%
China	83,095	3,312	3.99%
Sweden	4,028	146	3.62%
Brazil	5,812	202	3.48%
Switz	16,176	388	2.40%
Portug	7,443	160	2.15%
USA	188,588	4,043	2.14%
SKorea	9,887	165	1.67%
Turkey	13,531	214	1.58%
Austria	9,920	128	1.29%
Canada	8,504	96	1.13%
Germany	72,680	797	1.10%
Austral	4,862	20	0.41%
Israel	5,591	21	0.38%

source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

The number of ventilators per head most likely eg South Korea and Germany are low down that table on death rate and have 7 acute hospital beds per 1000 people to 2 per 1000 in Italy

Cobblers. As people have repeatedly explained, it's about testing. Israel is following the same path in mortality rates as all the countries that tested early and often: Germany, Austria, Norway. Initially few deaths, then the rate slowly rising as more people are infected long enough to die.

Number of ventilators per head only becomes relevant when you start to run out of them.

Mass testing should only reduce the number of cases mainly, the number of ventilators will have the biggest impact on the death rate for those once they have it

FrancisUrquhart said:

As I posted down thread, this is where I find it slightly odd. On other things, the government have been very pro-active from expanding capacity, ventilators, hoarding PPE, AI tech, getting chemical companies to quadruple oxygen production.

But for some reason, if Peston is to be believed, they haven't been bothering chemical companies to make reagents etc.

Either they don't really want to expand capacity for some reason or there is more going on behind the scenes we don't know about.

And TBF you have also been critical for quite some time on the testing point.