politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The NHS “army of volunteers” could be a Cummings masterstroke

System · March 2020

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The NHS “army of volunteers” could be a Cummings masterstroke

The main pandemic story for several of the tabloids this morning is the announcement that the government is building up an army of NHS volunteers to help in the fight against the coronavirus

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney · March 2020

First ... again!

peter_from_putney · March 2020

Mike's right ... paying a little helper for buying and delivering groceries could be a problem, especially as "hard cash" is reckoned to be absolutely covered in germs of one form or another. I'm not sure whether this also applies to our new plastic notes. The obvious solution is to arrange an electronic payment for those who have online banking, which in my case has reduced the number of cheques I write to only around 4 or 5 per annum. Easier still would be to pay by PayPal, well known to all those of us who have bought or sold om eBay, etc.

IanB2 · March 2020

Seconded

IanB2 · March 2020

peter_from_putney said:
Mike's right ... paying a little helper for buying and delivering groceries could be a problem, especially as "hard cash" is reckoned to be absolutely covered in germs of one form or another. I'm not sure whether this also applies to our new plastic notes. The obvious solution is to arrange an electronic payment for those who have online banking, which in my case has reduced the number of cheques I write to only around 4 or 5 per annum. Easier still would be to pay by PayPal, well known to all those of us who have bought or sold om eBay, etc.

The plastic notes are worse, being a hard surface!

Anabobazina · March 2020

It takes about two minutes to pay someone new by banking app. Hope we can get more people using the system and finally kiss goodbye to cash!

Gadfly · March 2020

Pingit takes some beating IMHO. Although it is run by Barclays, Pingit can be used my anybody who has a UK bank account and a mobile phone.

There is no need to exchange any banking details with the recipient, you simply 'Ping' the money to their phone number and it hits their account immediately.

IanB2 · March 2020

Anabobazina said:
It takes about two minutes to pay someone new by banking app. Hope we can get more people using the system and finally kiss goodbye to cash!

The people being looked after are mostly very old, tho

CrispyRendang · March 2020

why does Cummings get the credit/blame for all the government's ideas? Is he really calling all the shots and coming up with the ideas or is this just some sort of convenient meme that everything the government does new is down to Cummings?

Anabobazina · March 2020

IanB2 said:

Anabobazina said:
It takes about two minutes to pay someone new by banking app. Hope we can get more people using the system and finally kiss goodbye to cash!
The people being looked after are mostly very old, tho

Understood, but I think many older groups have picked up technology since this horror show hit.

MikeL · March 2020

If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Toms · March 2020

https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/dadd-the-fairy-fellers-master-stroke-t00598

Casino_Royale · March 2020

FPT - I had an awful cold for the best part of a month in late November/ early December as well.

Casino_Royale · March 2020

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Make America Great Again.

TGOHF666 · March 2020

CrispyRendang said:
why does Cummings get the credit/blame for all the government's ideas? Is he really calling all the shots and coming up with the ideas or is this just some sort of convenient meme that everything the government does new is down to Cummings?

He's the lefties bogieman/Satan.

A useful lightning rod for Boris.

peter_from_putney · March 2020

Gadfly said:
Pingit takes some beating IMHO. Although it is run by Barclays, Pingit can be used my anybody who has a UK bank account and a mobile phone.

There is no need to exchange any banking details with the recipient, you simply 'Ping' the money to their phone number and it hits their account immediately.

Thanks for that ... I'd never previously heard of Pingit and will now check it out.

CrispyRendang · March 2020

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.

Mysticrose · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:
why does Cummings get the credit/blame for all the government's ideas? Is he really calling all the shots and coming up with the ideas or is this just some sort of convenient meme that everything the government does new is down to Cummings?
He's the lefties bogieman/Satan.

A useful lightning rod for Boris.

That's lazy. I'm a 'leftie' and I quite like how Boris is now performing. He got there in the end. Sunak is also brilliant.

Cummings is a whole different ball game. He's a sociopath and quite possibly a psychopath. And he's equally reviled on the right by thinking journalists. But the worst thing about him is that he's holding Boris back. If Bojo could just take courage and cut himself free from the ball & chain he would fly and become a truly great Prime Minister.

TGOHF666 · March 2020

Mysticrose said:

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:
why does Cummings get the credit/blame for all the government's ideas? Is he really calling all the shots and coming up with the ideas or is this just some sort of convenient meme that everything the government does new is down to Cummings?
He's the lefties bogieman/Satan.

A useful lightning rod for Boris.
That's lazy. I'm a 'leftie' and I quite like how Boris is now performing. He got there in the end. Sunak is also brilliant.

Cummings is a whole different ball game. He's a sociopath and quite possibly a psychopath. But the worst thing about him is that he's holding Boris back. If Bojo could just take courage and cut himself free from the ball & chain he would fly and become a truly great Prime Minister.

Well there you go - you have poured all your ire onto Dom - and have none left for Boris.

Dom isn't on the ballot.

Hence 2019 GE result..

TGOHF666 · March 2020

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.

US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

Mysticrose · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

Mysticrose said:

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:
why does Cummings get the credit/blame for all the government's ideas? Is he really calling all the shots and coming up with the ideas or is this just some sort of convenient meme that everything the government does new is down to Cummings?
He's the lefties bogieman/Satan.

A useful lightning rod for Boris.
That's lazy. I'm a 'leftie' and I quite like how Boris is now performing. He got there in the end. Sunak is also brilliant.

Cummings is a whole different ball game. He's a sociopath and quite possibly a psychopath. But the worst thing about him is that he's holding Boris back. If Bojo could just take courage and cut himself free from the ball & chain he would fly and become a truly great Prime Minister.
Well there you go - you have poured all your ire onto Dom - and have none left for Boris.

Dom isn't on the ballot.

Hence 2019 GE result..

Corbyn was.

Hence 2019 GE result ...

williamglenn · March 2020

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1243031422723657728?s=21

SouthamObserver · March 2020

Mother-in-law’s funeral yesterday. What an amazing thing it was. Just us and our kids, and my wife’s brother’s immediate family, in attendance. We met the hearse outside the cottage she had lived in for 70 years - the one where my wife was born and in which she grew up - and because there was no traffic of any kind we were able to walk to the graveyard. Brother’s family in front of the hearse, us behind. Not a cloud in the sky. You could hear the birds singing, the baaing of the lambs. It’s a tiny graveyard and when we got there, four of us donned gloves and carried the coffin to the graveside. Two at the back, two at the front. The coffin itself a barrier to our mouths. Then we joined our respective family groups. One at the top of the cemetery, the other at the bottom. The priest formed the third part of the triangle and delivered a short, but entirely on point, service for a woman he had known for 20 years. And all the time the sun, the birdsong and the lambs. At the end she was lowered into the grave where her husband of 58 years already lay. Each family took a turn to drop flowers and earth onto the coffin, then we waved to each other and headed home. And the sun shone and the birds sang and the lambs had their fun. I cannot imagine anything more special or more peaceful or good. What a way to bring down the curtain on a 92 year life, so very well lived. We’ll do a memorial service once this is all done and it will be a party, not a wake. What a blessing.

Mysticrose · March 2020

There's a good (i.e. awful) example on the BBC website of how screwed up the US is with coronavirus:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52019509

What a mess

MarqueeMark · March 2020

CrispyRendang said:
why does Cummings get the credit/blame for all the government's ideas? Is he really calling all the shots and coming up with the ideas or is this just some sort of convenient meme that everything the government does new is down to Cummings?

Rishi Sunak could yet pull a rabbit out the hat to cement his golden boy status tonight. As well as helping the self-employed, he could:

- announce a 25% salary uplift for all NHS workers from 1st March to 31st May (to be extended if required).

- announce a one-off "thank you" payment of £1,000 to all those who have volunteered to help the NHS by 5 pm tonight.

If Govt. thinking is we are through the worst by 1st May, then that will significantly reduce the exposure of the Govt. to the money it will need to extend. Tax receipts can look to be taking a hit, but recover some of those losses over the year (there is going to be a shedload of overtime when we do get back to normality). This gesture will be a drop in the tsunami of cash he was prepared to fund "whatever it takes". But people will remember he did the right thing, at the right time.

MarqueeMark · March 2020

Oh, and a medal for all the NHS volunteers.

IanB2 · March 2020

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

I have been thinking that for a while. Americans so like to see themselves as special, somehow isolated from the problems that afflict other countries. To realise that they have it worse than anywhere is going to be a considerable shock. And surely makes the US market a sell in the very short term, despite the general feeling you can detect that we have turned some sort of corner - if only the psychological normalisation of our current position.

MarqueeMark · March 2020

SouthamObserver said:
Mother-in-law’s funeral yesterday. What an amazing thing it was. Just us and our kids, and my wife’s brother’s immediate family, in attendance. We met the hearse outside the cottage she had lived in for 70 years - the one where my wife was born and in which she grew up - and because there was no traffic of any kind we were able to walk to the graveyard. Brother’s family in front of the hearse, us behind. Not a cloud in the sky. You could hear the birds singing, the baaing of the lambs. It’s a tiny graveyard and when we got there, four of us donned gloves and carried the coffin to the graveside. Two at the back, two at the front. The coffin itself a barrier to our mouths. Then we joined our respective family groups. One at the top of the cemetery, the other at the bottom. The priest formed the third part of the triangle and delivered a short, but entirely on point, service for a woman he had known for 20 years. And all the time the sun, the birdsong and the lambs. At the end she was lowered into the grave where her husband of 58 years already lay. Each family took a turn to drop flowers and earth onto the coffin, then we waved to each other and headed home. And the sun shone and the birds sang and the lambs had their fun. I cannot imagine anything more special or more peaceful or good. What a way to bring down the curtain on a 92 year life, so very well lived. We’ll do a memorial service once this is all done and it will be a party, not a wake. What a blessing.

Beautifully delivered, in all respects.

Nigelb · March 2020

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.

I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.

Nigelb · March 2020

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:
Mother-in-law’s funeral yesterday. What an amazing thing it was. Just us and our kids, and my wife’s brother’s immediate family, in attendance. We met the hearse outside the cottage she had lived in for 70 years - the one where my wife was born and in which she grew up - and because there was no traffic of any kind we were able to walk to the graveyard. Brother’s family in front of the hearse, us behind. Not a cloud in the sky. You could hear the birds singing, the baaing of the lambs. It’s a tiny graveyard and when we got there, four of us donned gloves and carried the coffin to the graveside. Two at the back, two at the front. The coffin itself a barrier to our mouths. Then we joined our respective family groups. One at the top of the cemetery, the other at the bottom. The priest formed the third part of the triangle and delivered a short, but entirely on point, service for a woman he had known for 20 years. And all the time the sun, the birdsong and the lambs. At the end she was lowered into the grave where her husband of 58 years already lay. Each family took a turn to drop flowers and earth onto the coffin, then we waved to each other and headed home. And the sun shone and the birds sang and the lambs had their fun. I cannot imagine anything more special or more peaceful or good. What a way to bring down the curtain on a 92 year life, so very well lived. We’ll do a memorial service once this is all done and it will be a party, not a wake. What a blessing.
Beautifully delivered, in all respects.

Absolutely.

rcs1000 · March 2020

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.

Well yes...

Italy has an old population. But on the other hand, it's cases peaked last Friday, and are probably on a downward curve from here. The US, at a guess, is some way from a peak.

MarqueeMark · March 2020

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.

The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And then, perhaps, Donald Trump will be the lightning rod. It will ask itself "If this thing, or something similar, hits us again, who do we want in control?"

williamglenn · March 2020

IanB2 said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.
I have been thinking that for a while. Americans so like to see themselves as special, somehow isolated from the problems that afflict other countries. To realise that they have it worse than anywhere is going to be a considerable shock. And surely makes the US market a sell in the very short term, despite the general feeling you can detect that we have turned some sort of corner - if only the psychological normalisation of our current position.

Some of the denialism that’s still evident in US society is staggering. It will take a lot to break through that.

rcs1000 · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

Also, welding people inside their homes is probably not allowed by the constitution.

Nigelb · March 2020

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And then, perhaps, Donald Trump will be the lightning rod. It will ask itself "If this thing, or something similar, hits us again, who do we want in control?"

The role of the insurance companies is also going to be an issue in November.

Nigelb · March 2020

We’ve all been wondering what next in Japan.

https://twitter.com/RamyInocencio/status/1243036560049741824

rcs1000 · March 2020

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.

The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.

rcs1000 · March 2020

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And then, perhaps, Donald Trump will be the lightning rod. It will ask itself "If this thing, or something similar, hits us again, who do we want in control?"

Third party run by Bloomberg, you reckon?

Nigelb · March 2020

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And then, perhaps, Donald Trump will be the lightning rod. It will ask itself "If this thing, or something similar, hits us again, who do we want in control?"
The role of the insurance companies is also going to be an issue in November.

https://twitter.com/wendellpotter/status/1242969838126911488

https://twitter.com/wendellpotter/status/1242969841528537088

Nigelb · March 2020

rcs1000 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.

Are domestic flights still fully operating ?

rcs1000 · March 2020

rcs1000 said:
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.

Are domestic flights still fully operating ?

Fully?

No.

I reckon US air travel is down 60-90%.

williamglenn · March 2020

San Francisco nursing home locked down after 5 staff members test positive for coronavirus

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-update-san-francisco-locks-down-laguna-honda-hospital-after-5-staffers-test-positive/ar-BB11I0M0

MarqueeMark · March 2020

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And then, perhaps, Donald Trump will be the lightning rod. It will ask itself "If this thing, or something similar, hits us again, who do we want in control?"
Third party run by Bloomberg, you reckon?

A co-opted Cuomo, perhaps....

Nigelb · March 2020

Good article on the modelling controversy:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling
But as infectious disease modellers and public health experts, including the Oxford team themselves, have pointed out, the model used assumptions because there was no hard data.

No one knows what fraction of the public is at risk of serious illness. The study merely demonstrates how wildly different scenarios can produce the same tragic pattern of deaths, and emphasises that we urgently need serological testing for antibodies against the virus, to discover which world we are in.

Paul Klenerman, one of the Oxford researchers, called the 68% figure the most extreme result and explained that “there is another extreme which is that only a tiny proportion have been exposed”. The true figure, which is unknown, was likely somewhere in between, he said.

In other words, the number of people infected in Britain is either very large, very small, or middling. This may sound unhelpful, but that is precisely the point. “We need much more data about who has been exposed to inform policy,” Klenerman said....

... The modelling from Imperial College that underpinned the government’s belief that the nation could ride out the epidemic by letting the infection sweep through, creating “herd immunity” on the way, was more troubling.

The model, based on 13-year-old code for a long-feared influenza pandemic, assumed that the demand for intensive care units would be the same for both infections. Data from China soon showed this to be dangerously wrong, but the model was only updated when more data poured out of Italy, where intensive care was swiftly overwhelmed and deaths shot up.

Nor was that the only shortcoming of the Imperial model. It did not consider the impact of widespread rapid testing, contact tracing and isolation, which can be used in the early stages of an epidemic or in lockdown conditions to keep infections down to such an extent that when restrictions are lifted the virus should not rebound....

MarqueeMark · March 2020

williamglenn said:
San Francisco nursing home locked down after 5 staff members test positive for coronavirus

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-update-san-francisco-locks-down-laguna-honda-hospital-after-5-staffers-test-positive/ar-BB11I0M0

"a 750-bed facility where the majority of the residents are over 65 years old with serious health conditions."

Eek......

Pulpstar · March 2020

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.
Are domestic flights still fully operating ?

Fully?

No.

I reckon US air travel is down 60-90%.
Always amazes me how much flying takes place in the USA tbh. I'm amazed ANYONE is travelling to NY in particular

TGOHF666 · March 2020

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

SouthamObserver said:
Mother-in-law’s funeral yesterday. What an amazing thing it was. Just us and our kids, and my wife’s brother’s immediate family, in attendance. We met the hearse outside the cottage she had lived in for 70 years - the one where my wife was born and in which she grew up - and because there was no traffic of any kind we were able to walk to the graveyard. Brother’s family in front of the hearse, us behind. Not a cloud in the sky. You could hear the birds singing, the baaing of the lambs. It’s a tiny graveyard and when we got there, four of us donned gloves and carried the coffin to the graveside. Two at the back, two at the front. The coffin itself a barrier to our mouths. Then we joined our respective family groups. One at the top of the cemetery, the other at the bottom. The priest formed the third part of the triangle and delivered a short, but entirely on point, service for a woman he had known for 20 years. And all the time the sun, the birdsong and the lambs. At the end she was lowered into the grave where her husband of 58 years already lay. Each family took a turn to drop flowers and earth onto the coffin, then we waved to each other and headed home. And the sun shone and the birds sang and the lambs had their fun. I cannot imagine anything more special or more peaceful or good. What a way to bring down the curtain on a 92 year life, so very well lived. We’ll do a memorial service once this is all done and it will be a party, not a wake. What a blessing.

Lovely to read.

Nigelb · March 2020

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.
Are domestic flights still fully operating ?

Fully?

No.

I reckon US air travel is down 60-90%.
Always amazes me how much flying takes place in the USA tbh. I'm amazed ANYONE is travelling to NY in particular

And from ... ?

TGOHF666 · March 2020

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.
Are domestic flights still fully operating ?
Fully?

No.

I reckon US air travel is down 60-90%.

Always amazes me how much flying takes place in the USA tbh. I'm amazed ANYONE is travelling to NY in particular

Not just JFK - La Guardia, Newark, Philly...

Foss · March 2020

Nigelb said:
We’ve all been wondering what next in Japan.

https://twitter.com/RamyInocencio/status/1243036560049741824

Now that the Olympics has been cancelled....

IanB2 · March 2020

rcs1000 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.

The Great Depression? Hardly the US’s finest hour. Not only did it start in the Us, but it took a long time for the US to shake off, if because they were last to rearm.

Nigelb · March 2020

On food supply:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns

OldKingCole · March 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

SouthamObserver said:
Mother-in-law’s funeral yesterday. What an amazing thing it was. Just us and our kids, and my wife’s brother’s immediate family, in attendance. We met the hearse outside the cottage she had lived in for 70 years - the one where my wife was born and in which she grew up - and because there was no traffic of any kind we were able to walk to the graveyard. Brother’s family in front of the hearse, us behind. Not a cloud in the sky. You could hear the birds singing, the baaing of the lambs. It’s a tiny graveyard and when we got there, four of us donned gloves and carried the coffin to the graveside. Two at the back, two at the front. The coffin itself a barrier to our mouths. Then we joined our respective family groups. One at the top of the cemetery, the other at the bottom. The priest formed the third part of the triangle and delivered a short, but entirely on point, service for a woman he had known for 20 years. And all the time the sun, the birdsong and the lambs. At the end she was lowered into the grave where her husband of 58 years already lay. Each family took a turn to drop flowers and earth onto the coffin, then we waved to each other and headed home. And the sun shone and the birds sang and the lambs had their fun. I cannot imagine anything more special or more peaceful or good. What a way to bring down the curtain on a 92 year life, so very well lived. We’ll do a memorial service once this is all done and it will be a party, not a wake. What a blessing.
Lovely to read.

Indeed; every Sympathy to Mr & Mrs O. I'm sure Mrs O will look back on the day with sadness, but also with relief for the day it was.

TGOHF666 · March 2020

Nigelb said:
On food supply:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns

"In the UK, some farming leaders have called for a “land army” of workers to replace a shortfall of workers that could reach 80,000, according to one estimate, if the 60,000 seasonal workers recruited from abroad in normal years are prevented from coming, and if some British workers fall ill."

Wonder if that will see the same level of interest as the NHS plea for help ....

MarqueeMark · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

Nigelb said:
On food supply:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns

"In the UK, some farming leaders have called for a “land army” of workers to replace a shortfall of workers that could reach 80,000, according to one estimate, if the 60,000 seasonal workers recruited from abroad in normal years are prevented from coming, and if some British workers fall ill."

Wonder if that will see the same level of interest as the NHS plea for help ....

Well, if it gets you out the house......

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.

That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.

Ratters · March 2020

It's been discussed that it takes around 2 weeks for a lock down to feed through into reduced cases and then deaths, hence certain parts of Italy hopefully being in the process of peaking.

In the UK the lockdown started on 24 March, so let's say that puts our peak around 7th April as a starting point.

However, the key difference (I hope) in the UK versus Italy, Spain, and the US is that we've had a gradually ramping up series of measures that should have reduced R0, albeit not to the extent a lockdown does. To take previous announcements with their respective '2 weeks time impact':

- 12th March (impact from 26th March): advised that anyone with a new continuous cough or a fever should self-isolate for seven days
- 16th March (impact from 30th March): advised everyone in the UK against "non-essential" travel and contact with others, as well as suggesting people should avoid pubs, clubs and theatres, and work from home if possible

My experience is that these did change behaviour, and so it is reasonable to expect it will have had an impact on the rate at which the virus was transmitted.

If that's the case, over the next few days we can hope that the rate of increase in critical cases slows, but still doesn't peak until the effect of the lockdown comes through over the middle couple of weeks in April.

MarqueeMark · March 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.

The Kids Are Alright, but My Generation is buggered.....

CrispyRendang · March 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.

Yes but there was that unfortunate incident when Mr. Townshend paid to access images of child rape.

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.
The Kids Are Alright, but My Generation is buggered.....

I am hoping the NHS does not get Rogered as badly as people say - we only have a Daltrey number of ventilators.

TGOHF666 · March 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.

Is it time for a Substitute ?

https://spectator.us/abolish-world-health-organization/

"The WHO has become another pointless organization pandering to the world’s worst actors"

""The world doesn’t need another flaccid deliberative council whose sole intention is pleasing its financial backers. We already have the UN for that.""

Nigelb · March 2020

Biden: 'I think we've had enough debates'
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/489482-biden-i-think-weve-had-enough-debates

CarlottaVance · March 2020

One for the “Good guys” list:

https://twitter.com/itvjoel/status/1243075763739426816?s=21

felix · March 2020

Nigelb said:
We’ve all been wondering what next in Japan.

https://twitter.com/RamyInocencio/status/1243036560049741824

Yup - not so long since it and others were hailed as so much better than the UK efforts.

RochdalePioneers · March 2020

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And then, perhaps, Donald Trump will be the lightning rod. It will ask itself "If this thing, or something similar, hits us again, who do we want in control?"
Third party run by Bloomberg, you reckon?
A co-opted Cuomo, perhaps....

Yes. Cuomo is the obvious choice.

TGOHF666 · March 2020

felix said:

Nigelb said:
We’ve all been wondering what next in Japan.

https://twitter.com/RamyInocencio/status/1243036560049741824
Yup - not so long since it and others were hailed as so much better than the UK efforts.

Probably best to reserve judgement on one approach vs another until a years time..

MarqueeMark · March 2020

felix said:

Nigelb said:
We’ve all been wondering what next in Japan.

https://twitter.com/RamyInocencio/status/1243036560049741824
Yup - not so long since it and others were hailed as so much better than the UK efforts.

The most painful side-effect of Covid-19 seems to be its ability to bite people on the arse.

felix · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

felix said:

Nigelb said:
We’ve all been wondering what next in Japan.

https://twitter.com/RamyInocencio/status/1243036560049741824
Yup - not so long since it and others were hailed as so much better than the UK efforts.
Probably best to reserve judgement on one approach vs another until a years time..

Try telling that to Kay Burley and the soundbite / clickbait crowd.

Foxy · March 2020

rcs1000 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.

Hmm. Doesn't that just mean that even in the wide open spaces of the American West and Mountains, that the population is highly urbanised, and at risk?

MarqueeMark · March 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.
The Kids Are Alright, but My Generation is buggered.....
I am hoping the NHS does not get Rogered as badly as people say - we only have a Daltrey number of ventilators.

You're howling at the Moon, mate.....

geoffw · March 2020

Todays theme: kind hearts and corona tests.

Gardenwalker · March 2020

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.
The Kids Are Alright, but My Generation is buggered.....
I am hoping the NHS does not get Rogered as badly as people say - we only have a Daltrey number of ventilators.
You're howling at the Moon, mate.....

The kids are alright, it’s my generation that seem to be at greater risk. I’m washing my hands and taking all precautions, though, cos I won’t get fooled again.

TOPPING · March 2020

Very moving from @SouthamObserver - all sympathies. Sounds like a life well lived drawn to a quiet and dignified close.

Theuniondivvie · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

Perhaps they'll discover a cache of Asiatic leather workers in a couple of the states to blame it all on.

DougSeal · March 2020

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.
The Kids Are Alright, but My Generation is buggered.....
I am hoping the NHS does not get Rogered as badly as people say - we only have a Daltrey number of ventilators.
You're howling at the Moon, mate.....

The Government will spin a tight enough web to secure the NHS before it falls. Indeed I understand they are calling Boris “the Spider” at Number 10.

Chris · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

????????

You mean apart from the fact they are detecting only a small fraction of cases????

IanB2 · March 2020

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.
Hmm. Doesn't that just mean that even in the wide open spaces of the American West and Mountains, that the population is highly urbanised, and at risk?

Indeed. Iowa conjures up images of spread out farmsteads, but a clear majority of its population live in cities, mostly in just a few like Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

Foxy · March 2020

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.
Hmm. Doesn't that just mean that even in the wide open spaces of the American West and Mountains, that the population is highly urbanised, and at risk?

To illustrate:
https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1242700623704817664?s=19

From this map we see that Wyoming has 29 cases in a population of 577,000, and California 2,500 in 40 million. Per Capita, that is pretty similar.

CarlottaVance · March 2020

Hoyle talking a lot of sense on R4. Imagine if that pompous grandstanding Bercow had been in charge?

No_Offence_Alan · March 2020

rcs1000 said:

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

Also, welding people inside their homes is probably not allowed by the constitution.

The welders would be shot.

TGOHF666 · March 2020

Chris said:

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

????????

You mean apart from the fact they are detecting only a small fraction of cases????

Death figures ..

CarlottaVance · March 2020

SouthamObserver said:
Mother-in-law’s funeral yesterday. What an amazing thing it was. Just us and our kids, and my wife’s brother’s immediate family, in attendance. We met the hearse outside the cottage she had lived in for 70 years - the one where my wife was born and in which she grew up - and because there was no traffic of any kind we were able to walk to the graveyard. Brother’s family in front of the hearse, us behind. Not a cloud in the sky. You could hear the birds singing, the baaing of the lambs. It’s a tiny graveyard and when we got there, four of us donned gloves and carried the coffin to the graveside. Two at the back, two at the front. The coffin itself a barrier to our mouths. Then we joined our respective family groups. One at the top of the cemetery, the other at the bottom. The priest formed the third part of the triangle and delivered a short, but entirely on point, service for a woman he had known for 20 years. And all the time the sun, the birdsong and the lambs. At the end she was lowered into the grave where her husband of 58 years already lay. Each family took a turn to drop flowers and earth onto the coffin, then we waved to each other and headed home. And the sun shone and the birds sang and the lambs had their fun. I cannot imagine anything more special or more peaceful or good. What a way to bring down the curtain on a 92 year life, so very well lived. We’ll do a memorial service once this is all done and it will be a party, not a wake. What a blessing.

Beautifully put - what a lovely send off.

Foxy · March 2020

DougSeal said:

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.
The Kids Are Alright, but My Generation is buggered.....
I am hoping the NHS does not get Rogered as badly as people say - we only have a Daltrey number of ventilators.
You're howling at the Moon, mate.....
The Government will spin a tight enough web to secure the NHS before it falls. Indeed I understand they are calling Boris “the Spider” at Number 10.

Let's hope that his Substitute can see for miles, they all want to stay Live at Leeds.

CarlottaVance · March 2020

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.
Hmm. Doesn't that just mean that even in the wide open spaces of the American West and Mountains, that the population is highly urbanised, and at risk?
Indeed. Iowa conjures up images of spread out farmsteads, but a clear majority of its population live in cities, mostly in just a few like Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

% Urban population:

U.K.: 83
USA: 82

http://world.bymap.org/UrbanPopulation.html

geoffw · March 2020

Isn't Australia simultaneously (one of) the most urbanised and sparsely populated countries?

DecrepiterJohnL · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF666 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
I don’t think it will be all that long until they are reporting more new cases than the rest of the world.
The WHO will confirm the epicentre of the virus has moved from Europe to the USA. When much of the rest of the world is seeing the light, America will still be descending into isolation.

And then, perhaps, America will ask "How did this happen?"

And Trump will blame the WHO - perhaps with some merit.
That seems unfair - they had some great singles in the 60's.
Is it time for a Substitute ?

https://spectator.us/abolish-world-health-organization/

"The WHO has become another pointless organization pandering to the world’s worst actors"

""The world doesn’t need another flaccid deliberative council whose sole intention is pleasing its financial backers. We already have the UN for that.""

The Spectator thinks the UN is a puppet of the United States? The US is by far the UN's largest donor, followed a fair way behind by, erm, us, Japan and Germany.

Chris · March 2020

TGOHF666 said:

Chris said:

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

????????

You mean apart from the fact they are detecting only a small fraction of cases????
Death figures ..

Given the lack of general testing, is there any reason to think they have detected anything like all the coronavirus deaths?

felix · March 2020

CarlottaVance said:
Hoyle talking a lot of sense on R4. Imagine if that pompous grandstanding Bercow had been in charge?

3 hour PMQs yesterday followed by 4 hours of eulogy for Corbyn with multiple rounds of applause?

squareroot2 · March 2020

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:
Mother-in-law’s funeral yesterday. What an amazing thing it was. Just us and our kids, and my wife’s brother’s immediate family, in attendance. We met the hearse outside the cottage she had lived in for 70 years - the one where my wife was born and in which she grew up - and because there was no traffic of any kind we were able to walk to the graveyard. Brother’s family in front of the hearse, us behind. Not a cloud in the sky. You could hear the birds singing, the baaing of the lambs. It’s a tiny graveyard and when we got there, four of us donned gloves and carried the coffin to the graveside. Two at the back, two at the front. The coffin itself a barrier to our mouths. Then we joined our respective family groups. One at the top of the cemetery, the other at the bottom. The priest formed the third part of the triangle and delivered a short, but entirely on point, service for a woman he had known for 20 years. And all the time the sun, the birdsong and the lambs. At the end she was lowered into the grave where her husband of 58 years already lay. Each family took a turn to drop flowers and earth onto the coffin, then we waved to each other and headed home. And the sun shone and the birds sang and the lambs had their fun. I cannot imagine anything more special or more peaceful or good. What a way to bring down the curtain on a 92 year life, so very well lived. We’ll do a memorial service once this is all done and it will be a party, not a wake. What a blessing.
Beautifully put - what a lovely send off.

Well written SO. My wife has just lost her mother but we managed the funeral before the lockdown.

Sympathies to your wife both for her loss and not having the opporuitry for a full funeral service. The service helped me when i lost my first wife in 2012.

felix · March 2020

Fair bit of rancour in Spain yesterday as the Parliament voted on extending the 'Alarma'. Understandable but we are where we are and really need to stay united and get through it. The strains on the health system here is getting worse.

Endillion · March 2020

Chris said:

TGOHF666 said:

Chris said:

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

????????

You mean apart from the fact they are detecting only a small fraction of cases????
Death figures ..
Given the lack of general testing, is there any reason to think they have detected anything like all the coronavirus deaths?

They're having difficulties getting the death certificates processed properly, due to an outbreak of coronervirus.

felix · March 2020

Endillion said:

Chris said:

TGOHF666 said:

Chris said:

TGOHF666 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
US is going to suffer figure wise relative to China as the US figures are probably generally accurate.

????????

You mean apart from the fact they are detecting only a small fraction of cases????
Death figures ..
Given the lack of general testing, is there any reason to think they have detected anything like all the coronavirus deaths?
They're having difficulties getting the death certificates processed properly, due to an outbreak of coronervirus.

Very good.

IanB2 · March 2020

CarlottaVance said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.
Hmm. Doesn't that just mean that even in the wide open spaces of the American West and Mountains, that the population is highly urbanised, and at risk?
Indeed. Iowa conjures up images of spread out farmsteads, but a clear majority of its population live in cities, mostly in just a few like Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.
% Urban population:

U.K.: 83
USA: 82

http://world.bymap.org/UrbanPopulation.html

Plus Americans travel back and forth close packed in domestic flights, and many have this habit of getting together in a small room with people from all over, every Sunday.

Pulpstar · March 2020

Foxy said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

CrispyRendang said:

MikeL said:
If the last 24 hours are repeated then the US will go top of the table (for cases) above China and Italy in 24 hours from now.

Re Trump approval - I do get the sense that most people in the US currently have no idea of the scale of the virus. It is surely going to be a very big moment and a shock to most Americans when they hear the US is top of the table.

Obviously deaths trail cases, but USA is still at 3 deaths/1M, which is the same as South Korea, half the UK rate, and 1/40 of the Italian figure.

Daily deaths are around 0.75/1M. Italy has had more than 10 deaths/1M for the last six days, also 10+ in Spain since 3 days.

Countries closer to Spain/Italian levels than the US include the Netherlands (5/1M daily) and France (4/1M).

Some parts of the US are at similar levels, notably Louisana (4/1M/day), and I believe New York City (where the cases are concentrated, not the rural regions) is close to 10/1M/day, although clearly still short of Lombardy levels.

So at the moment the US is far from top of the table, and attention still focused on blue New York. Time will come, but the virus is a way behind Europe in the US.
The fact that much of the US is low population density works massively in their favour. If you drive from Denver to Salt Lake City you'll go 500 miles without passing anywhere bigger than... well, Beford.

It'd be like going from London to Edinburgh and passing... almost nothing of note...

But the counter to that is that the US has done bugger all social distancing (outside New York, Washington and California). They have a massive number of people who will go to work whatever, because there's no social system. And there's no public healthcare.

Put those together with a government that is largely in denial, and I think CV-19 could be the first crisis ever that European countries handle better than the US.
Hmm. Doesn't that just mean that even in the wide open spaces of the American West and Mountains, that the population is highly urbanised, and at risk?
To illustrate:
https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1242700623704817664?s=19

From this map we see that Wyoming has 29 cases in a population of 577,000, and California 2,500 in 40 million. Per Capita, that is pretty similar.

New York City is off the charts bad.

MarqueeMark · March 2020

geoffw said:
Isn't Australia simultaneously (one of) the most urbanised and sparsely populated countries?

That's because 99% of it is populated by stuff that wants to kill you.

And the other 1% is populated by Aussies.....

williamglenn · March 2020

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1243087217758699521?s=21

MarqueeMark · March 2020

squareroot2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:
Mother-in-law’s funeral yesterday. What an amazing thing it was. Just us and our kids, and my wife’s brother’s immediate family, in attendance. We met the hearse outside the cottage she had lived in for 70 years - the one where my wife was born and in which she grew up - and because there was no traffic of any kind we were able to walk to the graveyard. Brother’s family in front of the hearse, us behind. Not a cloud in the sky. You could hear the birds singing, the baaing of the lambs. It’s a tiny graveyard and when we got there, four of us donned gloves and carried the coffin to the graveside. Two at the back, two at the front. The coffin itself a barrier to our mouths. Then we joined our respective family groups. One at the top of the cemetery, the other at the bottom. The priest formed the third part of the triangle and delivered a short, but entirely on point, service for a woman he had known for 20 years. And all the time the sun, the birdsong and the lambs. At the end she was lowered into the grave where her husband of 58 years already lay. Each family took a turn to drop flowers and earth onto the coffin, then we waved to each other and headed home. And the sun shone and the birds sang and the lambs had their fun. I cannot imagine anything more special or more peaceful or good. What a way to bring down the curtain on a 92 year life, so very well lived. We’ll do a memorial service once this is all done and it will be a party, not a wake. What a blessing.
Beautifully put - what a lovely send off.
Well written SO. My wife has just lost her mother but we managed the funeral before the lockdown.

Sympathies to your wife both for her loss and not having the opporuitry for a full funeral service. The service helped me when i lost my first wife in 2012.

Those here who have recently lost a parent/in-law has had an alarming rise in membership. Hope all are doing OK through it.

RochdalePioneers · March 2020

TOPPING said:
Very moving from @SouthamObserver - all sympathies. Sounds like a life well lived drawn to a quiet and dignified close.

Indeed, best wishes to him and the family.

MarqueeMark · March 2020

felix said:
Fair bit of rancour in Spain yesterday as the Parliament voted on extending the 'Alarma'. Understandable but we are where we are and really need to stay united and get through it. The strains on the health system here is getting worse.

You can have too much of that Juan Coeur....

CarlottaVance · March 2020

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1243087217758699521?s=21

The day after the Olympics were postponed? I’m shocked I tell you, shocked! What an unfortunate coincidence....

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