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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The NHS “army of volunteers” could be a Cummings masterstroke

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  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    algarkirk said:

    North Yorkshire Police has said it will use checkpoints to stop vehicles and ask drivers if their journey is essential during the lockdown.

    Extraordinary. Surely the answer will in most cases be "I am going to work".

    A lot of people seem to have got the impression that the government guidance is only key workers should go to work. It is not. millions cannot work from home so they should still go to work, and are doing. Have quite a few people who had this misunderstanding at my workplace earlier in the week but it's clear now.
    It depends where these road blocks are doing. If it is to stop people doing day trips to the Yorkshire Dales, and the plod asks you where you work.
    Is there any sort of ban on members of a household going for a scenic drive, carefully avoiding hot spots and honeypots, perhaps on their way to their daily exercise or walking the dog?

    If you are in the vulnerable group you shouldn't go out period. Otherwise, still no, you shouldn't be making unnecessary trips out of the house. The advice is very clear.

    One good reason not to be driving all over the place, you then need to go and get fuel. So that is yet another unnecessary interaction with the world, especially one where loads of people touch the pumps and the payment terminal.

    Second you break down, now you have to interact with the very very very nice man from the AA.
    You stay in your car with windows up as the very very very nice man from the AA rumages around under the bonnet, then realies he can't fix it so tows you home. Then sit in the car until he drives off.

    Then leg it indoors before the cops arrive.

    Not that much of an interaction.
    The petrol station is the most worrying. How many others will have used that pump before or after you?
    Use the diesel gloves. Only myself and one other did when I filled up the other day.
    Canada unemployment doubled yesterday.
    How are you feeling today, @Foxy ? hope you and your wife are recovering.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    If there was a split - which, I am honest, I do not expect there to be - the more dangerous scenario would be the two sides splitting the Nationalist vote (which let us not forget, is a minority of the overall electorate) and letting Unionist candidates through the middle.

    But my suspicion is all that will happen is a lot of damaging mud slinging, which may topple Sturgeon and cost the SNP ten seats next year but would not be fatal to it. Ultimately, there are huge policy differences over just about everything in the SNP - Europe, Education, Health, Policing - but because they all want independence everything else is secondary. This will just be another sore.

    It will be interesting what becomes of the SNP once the goal of independence is achieved. At the moment they are able to secure the votes of people with very different politics - e.g. our own @malcolmg and @Theuniondivvie who I sense from their posts are right and left (of centre) respectively - drawn together by a shared belief that Scotland does not belong in the UK. Such people, and there must be loads, will probably not be voting for the same party post indy.
    The point is they fear independence won't happen at all. Coronavirus is a disaster for them as is Brexit. They represent huge barriers which did not exist in 2014 and Sturgeon is being blamed for letting the momentum slip, despite her obvious successes and credibility so far as the public is concerned. This is stressing the coalition and Salmond's massive sense of entitlement and grievance is a match about to be dropped into a tinder-box.

    All the old uglies, misogynists and bampots are re-appearing who they need to keep under wraps (Macneil, Cherry, Neil et al) and this is horrifying the more moderate members not to mention the women who are appalled at Salmond's behaviour.

    I see the usual suspects are usual suspecting again.

    Luv how you set yourself up as an expert on the inner workings of the EssEnnPee when you didn't seem aware of one of the primary articles of their faith, ie an elected SBP member never has and never will take a seat in the HoL.
    I fessed up to that one. (And SNP members not entirely averse to imperial honours, if not peerages, anyway).

    And, Alex Bell, whose article triggered my comments knows a fair bit about the workings of the EssEnnPee having worked directly for Eck.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited March 2020
    Monkeys said:

    "There is, as usual with the Boris-Cummings duumvirate, a twist, though this time it’s of limited comfort. Rumours are aswirl that they are orchestrating herd immunity by stealth. The story goes that everything from low enforcement of lockdown to the dispersal of asymptomatic school children into family homes, is part of the plan. Critics will call this saving face. But, if true, it hits on the curious blind spot of a so-called populist: Mr Johnson’s insecure reluctance to square with the public."

    Perhaps there is a plan but I think with Cummings there is a tendency to just assume that there is - because he has acquired this reputation of using a brain the size of Neptune to "wargame" everything and of always getting it right. I bet the truth is that he often faffs around ineffectually like everyone else.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    rkrkrk said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting insight into how the Johnsonian elite thinks the epidemic will impact government policy. Notable hostility towards China. I think Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G. This is totemic. More difficult, I think, on a broader scale. Will an economically stressed UK reject trading relationships with China? Also China is the biggest potential Brexit win. If Europe is excluded on ideological grounds and the USA is proving unreliable that basically leaves "Global Britain", with China as the remaining major potential strategic partner.

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243107462162546688

    Surely we will reconsider whether being so reliant on China for various essentials is wise. APIs, PPE etc...
    Most of the specialised swabs required for testing are made in .... Lombardy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Officials are looking to convert around 10 more sites across the country into makeshift coronavirus hospitals similar to the ExCel exhibition centre in London, Sky News understands.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-up-to-10-uk-sites-could-become-makeshift-hospitals-11963733
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019

    Pulpstar said:

    On the plus side, diesel has never been cheaper. £1.089 at the pump this morning, filled up.
    Treated the pump as if it was radioactive.

    I’m going to get to June having only put fuel in my car once this year.
    Pulpstar said:

    On the plus side, diesel has never been cheaper. £1.089 at the pump this morning, filled up.
    Treated the pump as if it was radioactive.

    Wow, I filled up at Asda in Brighton last week and it was 114.9. I thought that was dirt cheap. Where did you fill up>?
    Morrison's have slashed prices across the board. Petrol was 102.7p on Monday. I've not yet had the cause to go and check if it's gone even lower.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited March 2020
    My daughter is an ICU nurse in Sydney. They have plenty of masks but I asked why they don't switch to air-fed helmets.

    If they'd asked RPE experts, they'd have been told to use air-fed helmets where possible. The batteries ensure filtered air at positive pressure over your face. Protection factors are many times better than FFP3 masks, they're comfortable, cool and there's no touching of faces.

    More expensive as a capital and running cost but worth it for the reduction in corona illness for staff. A lesson for the NHS too? Cost surely isn't a factor?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting insight into how the Johnsonian elite thinks the epidemic will impact government policy. Notable hostility towards China. I think Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G. This is totemic. More difficult, I think, on a broader scale. Will an economically stressed UK reject trading relationships with China? Also China is the biggest potential Brexit win. If Europe is excluded on ideological grounds and the USA is proving unreliable that basically leaves "Global Britain", with China as the remaining major potential strategic partner.

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243107462162546688

    Alternatively, we simply won't be able to afford as many imports from them...
    what if they refused to service our debt...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    algarkirk said:

    North Yorkshire Police has said it will use checkpoints to stop vehicles and ask drivers if their journey is essential during the lockdown.

    Extraordinary. Surely the answer will in most cases be "I am going to work".

    A lot of people seem to have got the impression that the government guidance is only key workers should go to work. It is not. millions cannot work from home so they should still go to work, and are doing. Have quite a few people who had this misunderstanding at my workplace earlier in the week but it's clear now.
    It depends where these road blocks are doing. If it is to stop people doing day trips to the Yorkshire Dales, and the plod asks you where you work.
    Is there any sort of ban on members of a household going for a scenic drive, carefully avoiding hot spots and honeypots, perhaps on their way to their daily exercise or walking the dog?

    If you are in the vulnerable group you shouldn't go out period. Otherwise, still no, you shouldn't be making unnecessary trips out of the house. The advice is very clear.

    One good reason not to be driving all over the place, you then need to go and get fuel. So that is yet another unnecessary interaction with the world, especially one where loads of people touch the pumps and the payment terminal.

    Second you break down, now you have to interact with the very very very nice man from the AA.
    You stay in your car with windows up as the very very very nice man from the AA rumages around under the bonnet, then realies he can't fix it so tows you home. Then sit in the car until he drives off.

    Then leg it indoors before the cops arrive.

    Not that much of an interaction.
    The petrol station is the most worrying. How many others will have used that pump before or after you?
    Use the diesel gloves. Only myself and one other did when I filled up the other day.
    Canada unemployment doubled yesterday.
    How are you feeling today, @Foxy ? hope you and your wife are recovering.
    Not too bad. Almost a bit of a fraud if it wasn't for current events..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited March 2020
    rkrkrk said:

    Surely we will reconsider whether being so reliant on China for various essentials is wise. APIs, PPE etc...

    I wonder if we will see the end of the current global economic model. The one whereby China lends to the West who use the money to buy things from China.

    I don't suppose we will. Most things that "I wonder if?" do not happen. Can't actually remember the last one that did.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited March 2020
    CD13 said:

    My daughter is an ICU nurse in Sydney. They have plenty of masks but I asked why they don't switch to air-fed helmets.

    If they'd asked RPE experts, they'd have been told to use air-fed helmets where possible. The batteries ensure filtered air at positive pressure over your face. Protection factors are many times better than FFP3 masks, they're comfortable, cool and there's no touching of faces.

    More expensive as a capital and running cost but worth it for the reduction in corona illness for staff. A lesson for the NHS too? Cost surely isn't a factor?

    The hoods are very good and quite comfortable. FFP3 masks much less so, and need careful fitting to be effective. The hoods are £500 each though, and very much in demand.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Pulpstar said:

    On the plus side, diesel has never been cheaper. £1.089 at the pump this morning, filled up.
    Treated the pump as if it was radioactive.

    Where was that?! 120.9p at my local Sainsburys, which felt cheap compared to he BP at 127.9p on the way to work!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374
    kinabalu said:

    Monkeys said:

    "There is, as usual with the Boris-Cummings duumvirate, a twist, though this time it’s of limited comfort. Rumours are aswirl that they are orchestrating herd immunity by stealth. The story goes that everything from low enforcement of lockdown to the dispersal of asymptomatic school children into family homes, is part of the plan. Critics will call this saving face. But, if true, it hits on the curious blind spot of a so-called populist: Mr Johnson’s insecure reluctance to square with the public."

    Perhaps there is a plan but I think with Cummings there is a tendency to just assume that there is - because he has acquired this reputation of using a brain the size of Neptune to "wargame" everything and of always getting it right. I bet the truth is that he often faffs around ineffectually like everyone else.
    If the rumours I have heard are true, Cummings has been upsetting civil servants by demanding that the subject matter experts (like the CMO) are directly involved in decision making and procurement. Rather than properly isolated behind 3 layers of civil servants with expertise in... something who can properly "interpret" them to ministers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Agreed.
    It's fine to criticise Rick Stein and the rest, but if there is zero cash coming in to businesses, and they don't know when the furlough money is going to start, what are they to do if they don't have the cash (as many won't) ?

    A State Bank was for me one of the very best of Labour's ideas. I liked it anyway - for "leveling up" - and in current circumstances it would add enormous value.
    The only problem with it would have been that is was run by Corbyn/McDonald...
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Foxy said:

    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    algarkirk said:

    North Yorkshire Police has said it will use checkpoints to stop vehicles and ask drivers if their journey is essential during the lockdown.

    Extraordinary. Surely the answer will in most cases be "I am going to work".

    A lot of people seem to have got the impression that the government guidance is only key workers should go to work. It is not. millions cannot work from home so they should still go to work, and are doing. Have quite a few people who had this misunderstanding at my workplace earlier in the week but it's clear now.
    It depends where these road blocks are doing. If it is to stop people doing day trips to the Yorkshire Dales, and the plod asks you where you work.
    Is there any sort of ban on members of a household going for a scenic drive, carefully avoiding hot spots and honeypots, perhaps on their way to their daily exercise or walking the dog?

    If you are in the vulnerable group you shouldn't go out period. Otherwise, still no, you shouldn't be making unnecessary trips out of the house. The advice is very clear.

    One good reason not to be driving all over the place, you then need to go and get fuel. So that is yet another unnecessary interaction with the world, especially one where loads of people touch the pumps and the payment terminal.

    Second you break down, now you have to interact with the very very very nice man from the AA.
    You stay in your car with windows up as the very very very nice man from the AA rumages around under the bonnet, then realies he can't fix it so tows you home. Then sit in the car until he drives off.

    Then leg it indoors before the cops arrive.

    Not that much of an interaction.
    The petrol station is the most worrying. How many others will have used that pump before or after you?
    Use the diesel gloves. Only myself and one other did when I filled up the other day.
    Canada unemployment doubled yesterday.
    How are you feeling today, @Foxy ? hope you and your wife are recovering.
    Not too bad. Almost a bit of a fraud if it wasn't for current events..

    Glad to hear. Hopefully you can get tested soon. Where I am, my medic colleagues tell me the hospital is still eerily quiet but are waiting for the drove of cases. One question though: a number of people have mentioned that the rest of the country is a bit behind London and that the peak will thus be deferred elsewhere. However, if the whole country uses the same degree of social distancing, wouldn't we expect the peaks to arise at the same time everywhere but just be diminished in amplitude elsewhere? Or am I missing something?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    RobD said:

    algarkirk said:

    North Yorkshire Police has said it will use checkpoints to stop vehicles and ask drivers if their journey is essential during the lockdown.

    Extraordinary. Surely the answer will in most cases be "I am going to work".

    A lot of people seem to have got the impression that the government guidance is only key workers should go to work. It is not. millions cannot work from home so they should still go to work, and are doing. Have quite a few people who had this misunderstanding at my workplace earlier in the week but it's clear now.
    It depends where these road blocks are doing. If it is to stop people doing day trips to the Yorkshire Dales, and the plod asks you where you work.
    Is there any sort of ban on members of a household going for a scenic drive, carefully avoiding hot spots and honeypots, perhaps on their way to their daily exercise or walking the dog?

    If you are in the vulnerable group you shouldn't go out period. Otherwise, still no, you shouldn't be making unnecessary trips out of the house. The advice is very clear.

    One good reason not to be driving all over the place, you then need to go and get fuel. So that is yet another unnecessary interaction with the world, especially one where loads of people touch the pumps and the payment terminal.

    Second you break down, now you have to interact with the very very very nice man from the AA.
    You stay in your car with windows up as the very very very nice man from the AA rumages around under the bonnet, then realies he can't fix it so tows you home. Then sit in the car until he drives off.

    Then leg it indoors before the cops arrive.

    Not that much of an interaction.
    The petrol station is the most worrying. How many others will have used that pump before or after you?
    There is often a paper towel dispenser by the pump. Use a few pieces of that to hold it (which most filling with diesel do anyway).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2020
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting insight into how the Johnsonian elite thinks the epidemic will impact government policy. Notable hostility towards China. I think Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G. This is totemic. More difficult, I think, on a broader scale. Will an economically stressed UK reject trading relationships with China? Also China is the biggest potential Brexit win. If Europe is excluded on ideological grounds and the USA is proving unreliable that basically leaves "Global Britain", with China as the remaining major potential strategic partner.

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243107462162546688

    Alternatively, we simply won't be able to afford as many imports from them...
    Trade volumes will probably decrease due to economic depression, but that doesn't of itself reduce dependence on China trade. My questioning is whether the UK government will really tell their Chinese counterparts to piss off when it comes to buying and selling stuff and taking part in Chinese initiatives like One Belt One Road. I understand the Johnson government is hostile to China, but it does have to make choices. Not easy to reject everyone: the EU, Trump's America and the perfidious Chinese.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    If the rumours I have heard are true, Cummings has been upsetting civil servants by demanding that the subject matter experts (like the CMO) are directly involved in decision making and procurement. Rather than properly isolated behind 3 layers of civil servants with expertise in... something who can properly "interpret" them to ministers.

    On that one I would probably be with him. Always good to eliminate the middleman if you can and many middlemen do not add value. For example, for my sins I used to be a bond trader and we hardly ever spoke directly to the systems people who built our "tools". Dialogue was through an "analyst" whose job was basically to interpret trader talk to programmers and programmer talk to traders. It was highly inefficient.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting insight into how the Johnsonian elite thinks the epidemic will impact government policy. Notable hostility towards China. I think Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G. This is totemic. More difficult, I think, on a broader scale. Will an economically stressed UK reject trading relationships with China? Also China is the biggest potential Brexit win. If Europe is excluded on ideological grounds and the USA is proving unreliable that basically leaves "Global Britain", with China as the remaining major potential strategic partner.

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243107462162546688

    Alternatively, we simply won't be able to afford as many imports from them...
    Trade volumes will probably decrease due to economic depression, but that doesn't of itself reduce dependence on China trade. My questioning is whether the UK government will really tell their Chinese counterparts to piss off when it comes to buying and selling stuff and taking part in Chinese initiatives like One Belt One Road. I understand the Johnson government is hostile to China, but it does have to make choices. Not easy to reject everyone: the EU, Trump's America and the perfidious Chinese.
    Of course they can reject everyone. Brexit is all about looking inwards and back to the past.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Foxy said:

    Not too bad. Almost a bit of a fraud if it wasn't for current events..

    Malingering? :smile:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Well despite the discussion here the other day, the medical professor on R4 just now confirms that if you are exposed to a lot of virus at once at the time of first infection, your immune system struggles to fight it off and you are more likely to suffer a severe case.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Dr Foxy,

    "The hoods are very good and quite comfortable. FFP3 masks much less so, and need careful fitting to be effective. The hoods are £500 each though, and very much in demand."

    Although I spent most of my career in toxicology, I ended up as a Specialist Inspector for the HSE in Bootle working in occupational hygiene. Face masks are notoriously difficult to use properly. And like the donning and doffing of gloves, the software part of the system (the human) is always the weal link.

    Considering the government are spending gazillions a few more quid wouldn't matter.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    IanB2 said:

    Well despite the discussion here the other day, the medical professor on R4 just now confirms that if you are exposed to a lot of virus at once at the time of first infection, your immune system struggles to fight it off and you are more likely to suffer a severe case.

    So the best plan is to get a quick brush with it, then develop immunity with mild/no symptoms presumably? Would support the UK's 'partial lockdown' I suppose.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374
    kinabalu said:

    If the rumours I have heard are true, Cummings has been upsetting civil servants by demanding that the subject matter experts (like the CMO) are directly involved in decision making and procurement. Rather than properly isolated behind 3 layers of civil servants with expertise in... something who can properly "interpret" them to ministers.

    On that one I would probably be with him. Always good to eliminate the middleman if you can and many middlemen do not add value. For example, for my sins I used to be a bond trader and we hardly ever spoke directly to the systems people who built our "tools". Dialogue was through an "analyst" whose job was basically to interpret trader talk to programmers and programmer talk to traders. It was highly inefficient.
    In the banks and funds that actually do a good job, the front office developers sit on the floor with the traders. They are often required to get trading qualifications as well. This is because the traders in such places think that 1 layer of indirection is horseshit - let alone outsourcing to a country in the wrong time zone.

    Middlemen are being eliminated in banking at a furious rate. Banks were hiring at massive rate - people with actual skills.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely we will reconsider whether being so reliant on China for various essentials is wise. APIs, PPE etc...

    I wonder if we will see the end of the current global economic model. The one whereby China lends to the West who use the money to buy things from China.

    I don't suppose we will. Most things that "I wonder if?" do not happen. Can't actually remember the last one that did.
    Early days but I suspect that's what will happen. I also suspect the pivot from the West ( and the USA in particular) to China will be given a boost by this epidemic.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    ABZ said:

    Glad to hear. Hopefully you can get tested soon. Where I am, my medic colleagues tell me the hospital is still eerily quiet but are waiting for the drove of cases. One question though: a number of people have mentioned that the rest of the country is a bit behind London and that the peak will thus be deferred elsewhere. However, if the whole country uses the same degree of social distancing, wouldn't we expect the peaks to arise at the same time everywhere but just be diminished in amplitude elsewhere? Or am I missing something?

    As I have posted on here a few times, the local scandal at my mothers is that the local surgery has simply stopped treating the local population. They do not answer the phone. They do not open the doors.

    She and others requiring GP contact are not getting it. Your post of empty hospitals makes me wonder how many people the medical profession will kill through neglecting those with serious conditions whilst awaiting the CoronaVirus packing every bed to capacity.

    It may turn out like Y2K - if the lockdown works well and the hospitals stay empty, people will scream it was a waste of time. OTOH if the hospitals are rammed solid, people will be scream that the NHS/Govt was under-prepared.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Like this but with loans added, not just savings?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Savings_and_Investments

    Yes. Plus issue "Citizens Bonds" and administer pensions. Ambitious but a total game-changer if it could be made to work.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    But 'the most successful countries' managed to avoid progressing to the stage where they were more or less forced to lockdown.
    If we can get back to where they started, then it might be possible for us, too. And that in any event seems more or less to be current government policy.
    Bill Gates was really positive on how this crisis will result in a leap forward in technology to allow the world to test for all sorts of diseases in a rapid fashion.
    He's not wrong.
    It's also altered the pace and means of scientific collaboration, bypassing the monthly journals' review systems. Which might seem fairly minor, but will have big consequences, I suspect.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely we will reconsider whether being so reliant on China for various essentials is wise. APIs, PPE etc...

    I wonder if we will see the end of the current global economic model. The one whereby China lends to the West who use the money to buy things from China.

    I don't suppose we will. Most things that "I wonder if?" do not happen. Can't actually remember the last one that did.
    Also I wonder whether there will be quite as many Chinese tourists visiting Western countries, at least to begin with.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    kinabalu said:

    If the rumours I have heard are true, Cummings has been upsetting civil servants by demanding that the subject matter experts (like the CMO) are directly involved in decision making and procurement. Rather than properly isolated behind 3 layers of civil servants with expertise in... something who can properly "interpret" them to ministers.

    On that one I would probably be with him. Always good to eliminate the middleman if you can and many middlemen do not add value. For example, for my sins I used to be a bond trader and we hardly ever spoke directly to the systems people who built our "tools". Dialogue was through an "analyst" whose job was basically to interpret trader talk to programmers and programmer talk to traders. It was highly inefficient.
    Inefficient except if the CMO has anything better to do than spend all day talking to civil servants.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:


    Not too bad. Almost a bit of a fraud if it wasn't for current events..

    Slacker..... ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    ABZ said:

    Glad to hear. Hopefully you can get tested soon. Where I am, my medic colleagues tell me the hospital is still eerily quiet but are waiting for the drove of cases. One question though: a number of people have mentioned that the rest of the country is a bit behind London and that the peak will thus be deferred elsewhere. However, if the whole country uses the same degree of social distancing, wouldn't we expect the peaks to arise at the same time everywhere but just be diminished in amplitude elsewhere? Or am I missing something?

    As I have posted on here a few times, the local scandal at my mothers is that the local surgery has simply stopped treating the local population. They do not answer the phone. They do not open the doors.

    She and others requiring GP contact are not getting it. Your post of empty hospitals makes me wonder how many people the medical profession will kill through neglecting those with serious conditions whilst awaiting the CoronaVirus packing every bed to capacity.

    It may turn out like Y2K - if the lockdown works well and the hospitals stay empty, people will scream it was a waste of time. OTOH if the hospitals are rammed solid, people will be scream that the NHS/Govt was under-prepared.
    Let me guess which way you'll be going - with the "people"?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374

    kinabalu said:

    If the rumours I have heard are true, Cummings has been upsetting civil servants by demanding that the subject matter experts (like the CMO) are directly involved in decision making and procurement. Rather than properly isolated behind 3 layers of civil servants with expertise in... something who can properly "interpret" them to ministers.

    On that one I would probably be with him. Always good to eliminate the middleman if you can and many middlemen do not add value. For example, for my sins I used to be a bond trader and we hardly ever spoke directly to the systems people who built our "tools". Dialogue was through an "analyst" whose job was basically to interpret trader talk to programmers and programmer talk to traders. It was highly inefficient.
    Inefficient except if the CMO has anything better to do than spend all day talking to civil servants.
    But without the filtering, how will the civil servants gather the information to create the 300 page reports that no-one reads?

    More importantly - how will they control policy?

    If civil servants are reduced to doing what they are told to do by politicians - that makes them.... servants.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    kinabalu said:

    If the rumours I have heard are true, Cummings has been upsetting civil servants by demanding that the subject matter experts (like the CMO) are directly involved in decision making and procurement. Rather than properly isolated behind 3 layers of civil servants with expertise in... something who can properly "interpret" them to ministers.

    On that one I would probably be with him. Always good to eliminate the middleman if you can and many middlemen do not add value. For example, for my sins I used to be a bond trader and we hardly ever spoke directly to the systems people who built our "tools". Dialogue was through an "analyst" whose job was basically to interpret trader talk to programmers and programmer talk to traders. It was highly inefficient.
    HHm reminds me of Dr cartwright in Yes Minister

    https://youtu.be/QE0Tt-ZyCtc
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    In the banks and funds that actually do a good job, the front office developers sit on the floor with the traders. They are often required to get trading qualifications as well. This is because the traders in such places think that 1 layer of indirection is horseshit - let alone outsourcing to a country in the wrong time zone.

    Middlemen are being eliminated in banking at a furious rate. Banks were hiring at massive rate - people with actual skills.

    Good to hear. My time was a while ago.

    What about the "Daily P/L" nonsense?

    Are truck loads of bright young Chartered Accountants still being employed to crunch numbers the whole day just so they can tell some enormously overpaid and egotistical trader - half the time inaccurately since the numbers are not per the ledger - what he has "made" or "lost" since yesterday?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    End of thread

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    edited March 2020
    ABZ said:


    Glad to hear. Hopefully you can get tested soon. Where I am, my medic colleagues tell me the hospital is still eerily quiet but are waiting for the drove of cases. One question though: a number of people have mentioned that the rest of the country is a bit behind London and that the peak will thus be deferred elsewhere. However, if the whole country uses the same degree of social distancing, wouldn't we expect the peaks to arise at the same time everywhere but just be diminished in amplitude elsewhere? Or am I missing something?

    No, you're quite right.
    There will be a significant difference, of course, in the number of infected & recovered (which will be much higher in London - though just how high we don't know). That might make a significant difference to the rate of the next upswing compared with elsewhere.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    ABZ said:

    Glad to hear. Hopefully you can get tested soon. Where I am, my medic colleagues tell me the hospital is still eerily quiet but are waiting for the drove of cases. One question though: a number of people have mentioned that the rest of the country is a bit behind London and that the peak will thus be deferred elsewhere. However, if the whole country uses the same degree of social distancing, wouldn't we expect the peaks to arise at the same time everywhere but just be diminished in amplitude elsewhere? Or am I missing something?

    As I have posted on here a few times, the local scandal at my mothers is that the local surgery has simply stopped treating the local population. They do not answer the phone. They do not open the doors.

    She and others requiring GP contact are not getting it. Your post of empty hospitals makes me wonder how many people the medical profession will kill through neglecting those with serious conditions whilst awaiting the CoronaVirus packing every bed to capacity.

    It may turn out like Y2K - if the lockdown works well and the hospitals stay empty, people will scream it was a waste of time. OTOH if the hospitals are rammed solid, people will be scream that the NHS/Govt was under-prepared.
    Let me guess which way you'll be going - with the "people"?
    Let me guess that you will be going which ever way Boris tell you....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely we will reconsider whether being so reliant on China for various essentials is wise. APIs, PPE etc...

    I wonder if we will see the end of the current global economic model. The one whereby China lends to the West who use the money to buy things from China.

    I don't suppose we will. Most things that "I wonder if?" do not happen. Can't actually remember the last one that did.
    Also I wonder whether there will be quite as many Chinese tourists visiting Western countries, at least to begin with.
    Our universities will have many fewer new foreign students this September...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    FF43 said:

    Early days but I suspect that's what will happen. I also suspect the pivot from the West ( and the USA in particular) to China will be given a boost by this epidemic.

    Yes - really kickstart the "Chinese Century".

    And can you imagine the conspiracy theories given that the virus started there?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    The government has gone further than it has in our history in underwriting 80% of the wages of those who have temporarily run out of work because of the CV and they have gone further than most other countries but have they gone far enough?

    For me the problem ultimately is that these payments are a loan. If the company receiving the money is in a business that is likely to bounce back quickly and catch up some of the lost production because there is even more pent up demand for their business this works but for the vast majority of businesses what they are facing is a one time hit in their business which is pretty likely to be a permanent loss. How do they then repay this additional debt? There is also a significant minority of businesses, airlines, cruise companies, holiday companies generally, who are likely to take a much longer term hit and have no realistic chance of paying back debt out of reduced incomes.

    I am the director of a company. We are having a board meeting this afternoon to work out what to do about our staff. We will suffer a very significant reduction in income over the next 3-4 months. After that we might recoup some of it as the courts get back to business but, frankly, the courts were pretty damn busy before this hit and have limited additional capacity to deal with a backlog. What is likely to happen is that new work will be displaced by the old not recouping what has been lost.

    What do we do? Fortunately we have sufficient reserves to see us out 3-4 months, more if we can get access to government funds. My guess is that we will keep most of our staff on pretty much full wages for now but our pot of money will be depleted. How long this lasts is the key question to which there is no clear answer. If we hadn't had those reserves I am really not clear how loans would have helped. The quid pro quo for keeping staff on should be grants not loans. Otherwise unemployment will rocket.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:

    The only problem with it would have been that is was run by Corbyn/McDonald...

    That's a point. But Jeremy, I think, would have concentrated on Palestine matters, And as for Ronald ...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Floater said:
    [Police] did speak to a family of 5 who’d travelled from Merseyside to Llanfairfechan for a day at the seaside, to advise them this was not essential travel and to go home

    But they'd already travelled by then, so all the police affected was the timing of the return half of the unnecessary trip.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Well our whole household of 6 have mild to moderate symptoms, which was kind of expected since 2 of us work in the NHS
    None of us with severe symptoms yet, thankfully.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    If there was a split - which, I am honest, I do not expect there to be - the more dangerous scenario would be the two sides splitting the Nationalist vote (which let us not forget, is a minority of the overall electorate) and letting Unionist candidates through the middle.

    But my suspicion is all that will happen is a lot of damaging mud slinging, which may topple Sturgeon and cost the SNP ten seats next year but would not be fatal to it. Ultimately, there are huge policy differences over just about everything in the SNP - Europe, Education, Health, Policing - but because they all want independence everything else is secondary. This will just be another sore.

    It will be interesting what becomes of the SNP once the goal of independence is achieved. At the moment they are able to secure the votes of people with very different politics - e.g. our own @malcolmg and @Theuniondivvie who I sense from their posts are right and left (of centre) respectively - drawn together by a shared belief that Scotland does not belong in the UK. Such people, and there must be loads, will probably not be voting for the same party post indy.
    The point is they fear independence won't happen at all. Coronavirus is a disaster for them as is Brexit. They represent huge barriers which did not exist in 2014 and Sturgeon is being blamed for letting the momentum slip, despite her obvious successes and credibility so far as the public is concerned. This is stressing the coalition and Salmond's massive sense of entitlement and grievance is a match about to be dropped into a tinder-box.

    All the old uglies, misogynists and bampots are re-appearing who they need to keep under wraps (Macneil, Cherry, Neil et al) and this is horrifying the more moderate members not to mention the women who are appalled at Salmond's behaviour.

    I see the usual suspects are usual suspecting again.

    Luv how you set yourself up as an expert on the inner workings of the EssEnnPee when you didn't seem aware of one of the primary articles of their faith, ie an elected SBP member never has and never will take a seat in the HoL.
    I fessed up to that one. (And SNP members not entirely averse to imperial honours, if not peerages, anyway).

    And, Alex Bell, whose article triggered my comments knows a fair bit about the workings of the EssEnnPee having worked directly for Eck.
    I'm not sure fessing up in the face of incontrovertible evidence is anything of note.

    Alex Bell, nuff said.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,838
    DavidL said:

    The government has gone further than it has in our history in underwriting 80% of the wages of those who have temporarily run out of work because of the CV and they have gone further than most other countries but have they gone far enough?

    For me the problem ultimately is that these payments are a loan. If the company receiving the money is in a business that is likely to bounce back quickly and catch up some of the lost production because there is even more pent up demand for their business this works but for the vast majority of businesses what they are facing is a one time hit in their business which is pretty likely to be a permanent loss. How do they then repay this additional debt? There is also a significant minority of businesses, airlines, cruise companies, holiday companies generally, who are likely to take a much longer term hit and have no realistic chance of paying back debt out of reduced incomes.

    I am the director of a company. We are having a board meeting this afternoon to work out what to do about our staff. We will suffer a very significant reduction in income over the next 3-4 months. After that we might recoup some of it as the courts get back to business but, frankly, the courts were pretty damn busy before this hit and have limited additional capacity to deal with a backlog. What is likely to happen is that new work will be displaced by the old not recouping what has been lost.

    What do we do? Fortunately we have sufficient reserves to see us out 3-4 months, more if we can get access to government funds. My guess is that we will keep most of our staff on pretty much full wages for now but our pot of money will be depleted. How long this lasts is the key question to which there is no clear answer. If we hadn't had those reserves I am really not clear how loans would have helped. The quid pro quo for keeping staff on should be grants not loans. Otherwise unemployment will rocket.

    The 80% wages is a grant not a loan!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    nunu2 said:

    Well our whole household of 6 have mild to moderate symptoms, which was kind of expected since 2 of us work in the NHS
    None of us with severe symptoms yet, thankfully.

    I hope it stays non severe.

    My brother (NHS) has it. So far for him it is like a flu.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Floater said:
    [Police] did speak to a family of 5 who’d travelled from Merseyside to Llanfairfechan for a day at the seaside, to advise them this was not essential travel and to go home

    But they'd already travelled by then, so all the police affected was the timing of the return half of the unnecessary trip.
    It's about sending a message.
  • Best of luck, Mr. Singing :)

    Thank you, Mr Dancer. In all the years I've been reading PB (12 or so), you've been my favourite poster. The world could use more politeness, especially now.

    --AS
  • RobD said:

    eadric said:

    RobD said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    And Norway: identically horrible unemployment figures

    https://twitter.com/cfbjerknes/status/1242443544398376961?s=20

    Unless there is a remarkable V shaped recovery, this looks like the Great Depression 2.0
    The UK government has taken considerable steps to keep people in employment. It is one of the major points to its credit.
    I keep looking at that chart and thinking, oh, so this is the Norwegian unemployment data for the last year, that's why the jump looks so alarming.

    Then I realise the chart goes back to 1980. Forty years ago. Corona dwarfs everything in that time.
    Unemployment only got to 11% during the great depression in Norway. :o
    And presumably Norway got to 11% unemployment over some time: a few years in the 1930s. This has happened in a few weeks.

    As Nouriel Roubini said in the Guardian, this is an unprecedented economic crisis. No one alive has seen anything like this.
    It will be interesting to see how it evolves. Will a lot of those people get their old jobs back, or will it be a slower recovery?
    Depends how soon the cruise ships return?
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    But 'the most successful countries' managed to avoid progressing to the stage where they were more or less forced to lockdown.
    If we can get back to where they started, then it might be possible for us, too. And that in any event seems more or less to be current government policy.
    Bill Gates was really positive on how this crisis will result in a leap forward in technology to allow the world to test for all sorts of diseases in a rapid fashion.
    He's not wrong.
    It's also altered the pace and means of scientific collaboration, bypassing the monthly journals' review systems. Which might seem fairly minor, but will have big consequences, I suspect.
    So when is Microsoft Teams going to show more than 4 people on screen at a time?
This discussion has been closed.