Oh god - waffle, hesitancy, waffle, invention. If only we had Blair as PM right now
I know. Who thought daily press conferences would be a good idea?
I think this crisis would be daunting even to Blair. The problem is the changing nature of the problem, the speed of change, the complexity of it all especially in regards to the economy
Surely he could be more forceful with that call for companies to stand by their staff: How about:' stand by your staff or else... don't expect support from HMG'.
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
Agreed, but compared to 4 weeks ago there is virtually none.
No, but if everyone in a community is using the same supermarket, you see how it can still spread.
Its one reason why shutting down pubs and clubs by force may not be a good idea too. If arseholes insist on stil going out, but they're just a very small proportion of the population then having the arseholes split into tiny groups across a large number of venues may mean they're more socially distant than all the arseholes going out to the same few venues (eg shops).
Another idiot in the media (paraphrasing) “will we have hit the peak in 12 weeks or is this all going to be resolved in 12 weeks?”
Hang on, let me check my crystal ball.
To be fair, it was asking Boris to clarify what he means by "we may have turned the tide in 12 weeks".
Does "turned the tide" mean we have got to the point where we can release these measures? Or does it mean "we're hitting the peak"?
Because one means "Back to normal in June." The other means "Could be back to normal in October" And if he's giving us a timescale, he should really say what he means by that timescale.
A fair point. I'd assumed starting to return to normal. Suppose it could be when the trailing eye-wall hits us...
Surely he could be more forceful with that call for companies to stand by their staff: How about:' stand by your staff or else... don't expect support from HMG'.
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
Not quite yet I think... the numbers will rise for a couple more days yet (severe symptoms show 5-10 days after infection) and tests will be backdated a couple of days. As Robert has pointed out, the rate of new cases continued to rise up until 10-14 days after lockdown in China, so worth bearing in mind.
The first lockdowns in the worst areas were on 8th March, I think, and the country wide lockdown on the 9th. So that is 10-11 days. We should not be seeing the full effect yet but the cases found will surely be spread across time and we should be seeing a reduction at least starting now. Of course they may be doing more testing than they were before.
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
I know
I'm just impatient.
@rcs1000 The numbers from Italy are really shooting up at present (5200 new cases today; - not so much in Lombardy or Veneto (though there are still local increases) but in the other provinces that were not part of the initial lockdown. Since Italy went into lockdown on Monday 9th March, do you still expect a peak tomorrow? The numbers are really rising quite sharply, which makes me rather concerned about the efficacy of their lockdown...
I may (of course) be out by a day or two, but it was 11 or 12 days from lockdown to peak in Hubei. Now, the "fleeing" of people from Lombardy and Veneto ahead of lockdown may have an impact, maybe sending the peak back a day or two as people got their new locations and then infected a whole bunch of people at once...
I'm going to go for Lombardy and Venice have already peaked. The rest of Italy will have their peak no later than Sunday, and maybe Fri/Sat.
The really, really interesting case to me is Germany. Because their really low death and (perhaps even more so, low ICU) rate suggests a very high level of asymptomatic cases.
Morbid as it is, what are the number of deaths in Italy today ?
427
Still not under control there.
Although, worth looking at the chart of cases against a logarithmic scale on Worldometer... Signs that the straight line is beginning curving shallower.
Without leaking what I have just been leaked I hear it will be an interesting one
Looks like you were leaked Fake News
Probably more twitter bollocks.
I'd heard the 12 weeks number. Some kind if normality by early summer. "if we all do as we're told". There's a load of crap on twitter about the Army on the streets of London - possible but even in Spain where they're fining T-Rex's people are still going to the shops.
Its the hope that with tests of new tests we might actually be able to sketch where normality comes back that was the interesting bit. At least for me who is already suffering cabin fever after 2 days WFH...
I was told by someone who has worked with the army over the years, that putting troops in is held back as far as possible because it immediately raises the public panic level.
Oh god - waffle, hesitancy, waffle, invention. If only we had Blair as PM right now
I know. Who thought daily press conferences would be a good idea?
I think this crisis would be daunting even to Blair. The problem is the changing nature of the problem, the speed of change, the complexity of it all especially in regards to the economy
Boris talking of remote press conferences
I agree Big_G that even Blair would find this daunting but I would have lots more confidence in Blair than I get from Johnson.
Without leaking what I have just been leaked I hear it will be an interesting one
Looks like you were leaked Fake News
Probably more twitter bollocks.
I'd heard the 12 weeks number. Some kind if normality by early summer. "if we all do as we're told". There's a load of crap on twitter about the Army on the streets of London - possible but even in Spain where they're fining T-Rex's people are still going to the shops.
Its the hope that with tests of new tests we might actually be able to sketch where normality comes back that was the interesting bit. At least for me who is already suffering cabin fever after 2 days WFH...
I think the "12 weeks" is just another way of saying "3 months" isn't it? E.g. this was from the Mail on Monday...
(On top of the almost two months I've done already, I'm counting this as five months... not sure this relieves your cabin fever in any way to know some of us have it worse!)
Without leaking what I have just been leaked I hear it will be an interesting one
Looks like you were leaked Fake News
Probably more twitter bollocks.
I'd heard the 12 weeks number. Some kind if normality by early summer. "if we all do as we're told". There's a load of crap on twitter about the Army on the streets of London - possible but even in Spain where they're fining T-Rex's people are still going to the shops.
Its the hope that with tests of new tests we might actually be able to sketch where normality comes back that was the interesting bit. At least for me who is already suffering cabin fever after 2 days WFH...
I was told by someone who has worked with the army over the years, that putting troops in is held back as far as possible because it immediately raises the public panic level.
Can't think why... Then again I pass army convoys going to / from Catterick quite often.
Morbid as it is, what are the number of deaths in Italy today ?
427
Still not under control there.
Although, worth looking at the chart of cases against a logarithmic scale on Worldometer... Signs that the straight line is beginning curving shallower.
The curve did slow a week and a half ago when the weather got warmer and I had my 'hunch', but I was expecting the deaths in Italy to have slowed down by more proportionally by now.
Another idiot in the media (paraphrasing) “will we have hit the peak in 12 weeks or is this all going to be resolved in 12 weeks?”
Hang on, let me check my crystal ball.
To be fair, it was asking Boris to clarify what he means by "we may have turned the tide in 12 weeks".
Does "turned the tide" mean we have got to the point where we can release these measures? Or does it mean "we're hitting the peak"?
Because one means "Back to normal in June." The other means "Could be back to normal in October" And if he's giving us a timescale, he should really say what he means by that timescale.
UK new case numbers will peak in about 14 to 16 days. Because we're now (at last) implementing significant lockdowns. Hopefully, we'll combine the lockdown with massive testing to understand how many asymptomatic cases there are. As we get the numbers under control, I would hope we will start releasing the most severe measures by the end of June.
It is worth remembering that those people that have recovered (i.e. repeatedly tested negative) can broadly return to their normal lives, as they are no longer at risk of catching or transmitting the disease.
More deaths total in Italy than in China. Something has gone hugely wrong in Italy.
Older average age, less draconian measures, containment started later. I really hope that Italy comes back strong from this, it's a country I really love and a people that deserve so much better.
Without leaking what I have just been leaked I hear it will be an interesting one
Looks like you were leaked Fake News
Probably more twitter bollocks.
I'd heard the 12 weeks number. Some kind if normality by early summer. "if we all do as we're told". There's a load of crap on twitter about the Army on the streets of London - possible but even in Spain where they're fining T-Rex's people are still going to the shops.
Its the hope that with tests of new tests we might actually be able to sketch where normality comes back that was the interesting bit. At least for me who is already suffering cabin fever after 2 days WFH...
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
More deaths total in Italy than in China. Something has gone hugely wrong in Italy.
And/Or we're not getting the full picture from China. Almost all cases in the UK have been among people who had other conditions - in the UK if Covid-19 was present its being categorised as the cause of death - how easy would it be to attribute it to the other underlying factors (which may indeed be the case in many cases)?
More deaths total in Italy than in China. Something has gone hugely wrong in Italy.
Very old population. Lots of communal transmission methods to the elderly (I'm looking at you Catholic mass). Government that took next to no early steps to transmission early on.
More deaths total in Italy than in China. Something has gone hugely wrong in Italy.
It wasn't a particularly clever prediction yesterday that this would happen today. Among the disturbing things is the fact that they have achieved this on only half the number of recorded cases in China. I suspect that their death rate will drop dramatically as people start to recover in greater numbers but it is already pretty much guaranteed that their death rate will be higher. Possibly significantly so.
More deaths total in Italy than in China. Something has gone hugely wrong in Italy.
Older average age, less draconian measures, containment started later. I really hope that Italy comes back strong from this, it's a country I really love and a people that deserve so much better.
Their dependency ratio is likely to be improved by this...
Without leaking what I have just been leaked I hear it will be an interesting one
Looks like you were leaked Fake News
Probably more twitter bollocks.
I'd heard the 12 weeks number. Some kind if normality by early summer. "if we all do as we're told". There's a load of crap on twitter about the Army on the streets of London - possible but even in Spain where they're fining T-Rex's people are still going to the shops.
Its the hope that with tests of new tests we might actually be able to sketch where normality comes back that was the interesting bit. At least for me who is already suffering cabin fever after 2 days WFH...
Well we do need to eat. Supermarkets pharmacies petroleum stations is about all that’s open. The hyper markets can only sell food, drink and hygiene products. No social interaction whatsoever only one person in a car. Reports that helicopters and drones checking we are not having parties on our back terrace. The supermarket staff like the medical staff are hero’s but time will tell were on day five and I reckon we have a minimum of 23 days to go.
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
Not quite yet I think... the numbers will rise for a couple more days yet (severe symptoms show 5-10 days after infection) and tests will be backdated a couple of days. As Robert has pointed out, the rate of new cases continued to rise up until 10-14 days after lockdown in China, so worth bearing in mind.
The first lockdowns in the worst areas were on 8th March, I think, and the country wide lockdown on the 9th. So that is 10-11 days. We should not be seeing the full effect yet but the cases found will surely be spread across time and we should be seeing a reduction at least starting now. Of course they may be doing more testing than they were before.
Well, Lombardy and Veneto are now seeing cases decline (I think Tuesday was the peak, so nine days). I suspect that the rest of Italy saw a whole bunch of superspreaders arrive thanks to the widely telegraphed lockdown. (Indeed, the telegraphing of that by their government will probably cause thousands of deaths.)
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and incomes support.
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and income support.
And that is exactly what they said at the conference with the income support coming tomorrow from the chancellor after his talks with the unions today
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and income support.
And that is exactly what they said at the conference with the income support coming tomorrow from the chancellor after his talks with the unions today
If and when the results of that come, the criticism will stop. Perfectly reasonable.
God he waffles and is difficult to understand I don’t think he has said anything yet
Today appears to be a holding operation.
No, I think he has been quite clever. Today was 'hope' day. The test is coming. We can beat this. Estimate of 12 weeks for the worst.
Personally, I certainly needed to hear something like that.
I get the feeling today is certainly one of the days when, if he was doing "as and when needed" briefings he wouldn't have bothered today, but if you commit to doing it daily, then you need to serve something up, and today it was time to serve up some hope and something-to-look-forward-to. And maybe the Queen to serve up a side-order of some resolution, duty and backbone. Quite a nice double-pronged message.
In the immortal words of William Adama - Because it's not enough to just live. You have to have something to live for
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
I would support it if decided by scientists and doctors. If it were decided because the something must be done brigade expressed their opinion to yougov however.......
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Another idiot in the media (paraphrasing) “will we have hit the peak in 12 weeks or is this all going to be resolved in 12 weeks?”
Hang on, let me check my crystal ball.
To be fair, it was asking Boris to clarify what he means by "we may have turned the tide in 12 weeks".
Does "turned the tide" mean we have got to the point where we can release these measures? Or does it mean "we're hitting the peak"?
Because one means "Back to normal in June." The other means "Could be back to normal in October" And if he's giving us a timescale, he should really say what he means by that timescale.
UK new case numbers will peak in about 14 to 16 days. Because we're now (at last) implementing significant lockdowns. Hopefully, we'll combine the lockdown with massive testing to understand how many asymptomatic cases there are. As we get the numbers under control, I would hope we will start releasing the most severe measures by the end of June.
It is worth remembering that those people that have recovered (i.e. repeatedly tested negative) can broadly return to their normal lives, as they are no longer at risk of catching or transmitting the disease.
How would the authorities differentiate between recovered or just fancy a night at the pub and happy to take the risk?
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
God he waffles and is difficult to understand I don’t think he has said anything yet
Today appears to be a holding operation.
No, I think he has been quite clever. Today was 'hope' day. The test is coming. We can beat this. Estimate of 12 weeks for the worst.
Personally, I certainly needed to hear something like that.
I get the feeling today is certainly one of the days when, if he was doing "as and when needed" briefings he wouldn't have bothered today, but if you commit to doing it daily, then you need to serve something up, and today it was time to serve up some hope and something-to-look-forward-to. And maybe the Queen to serve up a side-order of some resolution, duty and backbone. Quite a nice double-pronged message.
In the immortal words of William Adama - Because it's not enough to just live. You have to have something to live for
God he waffles and is difficult to understand I don’t think he has said anything yet
Today appears to be a holding operation.
No, I think he has been quite clever. Today was 'hope' day. The test is coming. We can beat this. Estimate of 12 weeks for the worst.
Personally, I certainly needed to hear something like that.
I get the feeling today is certainly one of the days when, if he was doing "as and when needed" briefings he wouldn't have bothered today, but if you commit to doing it daily, then you need to serve something up, and today it was time to serve up some hope and something-to-look-forward-to. And maybe the Queen to serve up a side-order of some resolution, duty and backbone. Quite a nice double-pronged message.
In the immortal words of William Adama - Because it's not enough to just live. You have to have something to live for
I reckon that’s about six days behind Spain so if it stays below 1000 tomorrow and the next few days then the UK winning
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Yes. A better day than yesterday.
The ramp up in testing numbers is really encouraging. It's three times as many tests as a week ago.
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Yes. A better day than yesterday.
The ramp up in testing numbers is really encouraging. It's three times as many tests as a week ago.
Unfortunately the number of new cases is more than four times higher - so work still to be done.
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Yes. A better day than yesterday.
The ramp up in testing numbers is really encouraging. It's three times as many tests as a week ago.
If the government succeeds in ramping up testing up numbers in the space of time they're claiming to, and has a reasonable incomes policy in place within a few days, they'll deserve some credit for that. We wait to see.
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Still no official conformation, can we be sure that the reddit post where I saw those figures is correct?
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
There's people who were infected before the lock down still getting tested positive. There's members of the same household getting infected. There's loads of people still going to work. There's people getting infected in hospitals, care homes etc
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Still no official conformation, can we be sure that the reddit post where I saw those figures is correct?
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Still no official conformation, can we be sure that the reddit post where I saw those figures is correct?
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Still no official conformation, can we be sure that the reddit post where I saw those figures is correct?
I seem to have spotted total deaths, but missed the total cases in the UK. What was the increase in cases today?
Number of cases As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
yes, big jump in number of tests.
And its more like a 600 jump in cases rather than 700. 2626 to 3229. So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Still no official conformation, can we be sure that the reddit post where I saw those figures is correct?
There were 4 local by-elections due today but all have been cancelled except one in Coventry. Safe Labour normally but given the Tory share in the latest poll and the fact that Jane Nellist is standing as a Socialist, who knows?
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and income support.
And that is exactly what they said at the conference with the income support coming tomorrow from the chancellor after his talks with the unions today
Big G, I have been very supportive of the Government over Coronavirus to date.
I have been impressed with Whitty and Vallance, they have always been serious and to the point.Sunak was impressive the other day. Even Williamson seems to have a handle on his brief.
Boris' performance today was an absolute clown show. Three word soundbites and mixed messages in the same sentences. He needs to hand the whole affair back to the grown-ups.
When he needs to be serious, is the Ken Dodd, purposely tousled hair effect absolutely necessary?
There were 4 local by-elections due today but all have been cancelled except one in Coventry. Safe Labour normally but given the Tory share in the latest poll and the fact that Jane Nellist is standing as a Socialist, who knows?
Upper Stoke. Probably the only election for ages. Normally very safe Labour - my Dad has been out campaigning in this one !!
FWIW very few of the clients that have contacted me today were looking to make redundancies but most seemed keen to effectively furlough them so as not to lose them long term.
Astute comment. More than this, Johnson is bad at execution, which is what we need right now : "This is what we want to achieve ; this is how we do it."
Another idiot in the media (paraphrasing) “will we have hit the peak in 12 weeks or is this all going to be resolved in 12 weeks?”
Hang on, let me check my crystal ball.
To be fair, it was asking Boris to clarify what he means by "we may have turned the tide in 12 weeks".
Does "turned the tide" mean we have got to the point where we can release these measures? Or does it mean "we're hitting the peak"?
Because one means "Back to normal in June." The other means "Could be back to normal in October" And if he's giving us a timescale, he should really say what he means by that timescale.
UK new case numbers will peak in about 14 to 16 days. Because we're now (at last) implementing significant lockdowns. Hopefully, we'll combine the lockdown with massive testing to understand how many asymptomatic cases there are. As we get the numbers under control, I would hope we will start releasing the most severe measures by the end of June.
It is worth remembering that those people that have recovered (i.e. repeatedly tested negative) can broadly return to their normal lives, as they are no longer at risk of catching or transmitting the disease.
How would the authorities differentiate between recovered or just fancy a night at the pub and happy to take the risk?
Maybe some kind of visual marking, like a yellow star on their clothing.
Wouldn't now be a great time to test Universal Basic Income?
I have though for many years that UBI is a great idea but, unless you want to collapse the currency, it has to be accompanied with higher taxes.
Yes - I'm not saying we need to bring it in *for good* just for the next three months...see if the world ends (pun intended)
Well, arguably the decision about stopping a "temporary" UBI would be a bigger political call than introducing one.
Not really. you bring it in as a temp measure for three months. But yes, there are risks to taking it away, but we do have a different way of measuring risk at the moment...
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and income support.
And that is exactly what they said at the conference with the income support coming tomorrow from the chancellor after his talks with the unions today
Big G, I have been very supportive of the Government over Coronavirus to date.
I have been impressed with Whitty and Vallance, they have always been serious and to the point.Sunak was impressive the other day. Even Williamson seems to have a handle on his brief.
Boris' performance today was an absolute clown show. Three word soundbites and mixed messages in the same sentences. He needs to hand the whole affair back to the grown-ups.
When he needs to be serious, is the Ken Dodd, purposely tousled hair effect absolutely necessary?
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
There's people who were infected before the lock down still getting tested positive. There's members of the same household getting infected. There's loads of people still going to work. There's people getting infected in hospitals, care homes etc
Today I saw a patient transit the lift lobby to transfer. Looked a bad one. Masks gowns but not the full Monty of PPE. Looked on the way to ICU. I used the stairs.
Civilians should not be using the bed size lifts! Walk or use the small passenger lifts for your own sales. Off to the Smoke to do a scoop and run for Fox jr. No temperature or symptoms.
More deaths total in Italy than in China. Something has gone hugely wrong in Italy.
Very old population. Lots of communal transmission methods to the elderly (I'm looking at you Catholic mass). Government that took next to no early steps to transmission early on.
Catholic Mass is not as bad as Protestant Mass if the wine chalice is handed to most of the congregation. Usually a Catholic priest gets to chug all the wine himself.
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and income support.
And that is exactly what they said at the conference with the income support coming tomorrow from the chancellor after his talks with the unions today
Big G, I have been very supportive of the Government over Coronavirus to date.
I have been impressed with Whitty and Vallance, they have always been serious and to the point.Sunak was impressive the other day. Even Williamson seems to have a handle on his brief.
Boris' performance today was an absolute clown show. Three word soundbites and mixed messages in the same sentences. He needs to hand the whole affair back to the grown-ups.
When he needs to be serious, is the Ken Dodd, purposely tousled hair effect absolutely necessary?
It’s to hide his hair loss
The wig Trump (allegedly) uses would be more appropriate.
At a guess, something sensible, so it was never likely to be adopted.
Incidentally, I have spent the whole day being besieged by anxious and indeed panicking Year 11s and 13s asking what happens now. To which I can only reply, I have no idea.
As I predicted, the uncertainty is what’s upsetting them the most. Not least, because given the extreme ambiguity of statements on the subject until we get confirmation of what is to happen, we have to assume the exams have been postponed rather than cancelled AND THEREFORE STILL HAVE TO PREPARE FOR THEM.
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and income support.
And that is exactly what they said at the conference with the income support coming tomorrow from the chancellor after his talks with the unions today
Big G, I have been very supportive of the Government over Coronavirus to date.
I have been impressed with Whitty and Vallance, they have always been serious and to the point.Sunak was impressive the other day. Even Williamson seems to have a handle on his brief.
Boris' performance today was an absolute clown show. Three word soundbites and mixed messages in the same sentences. He needs to hand the whole affair back to the grown-ups.
When he needs to be serious, is the Ken Dodd, purposely tousled hair effect absolutely necessary?
Yes, he was crap enough today to make it a relief when R4 abruptly cut away from him. His attempts at sounding reassuring and determined tend to have the opposite effect.
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and income support.
And that is exactly what they said at the conference with the income support coming tomorrow from the chancellor after his talks with the unions today
Big G, I have been very supportive of the Government over Coronavirus to date.
I have been impressed with Whitty and Vallance, they have always been serious and to the point.Sunak was impressive the other day. Even Williamson seems to have a handle on his brief.
Boris' performance today was an absolute clown show. Three word soundbites and mixed messages in the same sentences. He needs to hand the whole affair back to the grown-ups.
When he needs to be serious, is the Ken Dodd, purposely tousled hair effect absolutely necessary?
It’s to hide his hair loss
The wig Trump (allegedly) uses would be more appropriate.
If that hair is a wig, then somebody absolutely saw him coming.
At a guess, something sensible, so it was never likely to be adopted.
Incidentally, I have spent the whole day being besieged by anxious and indeed panicking Year 11s and 13s asking what happens now. To which I can only reply, I have no idea.
As I predicted, the uncertainty is what’s upsetting them the most. Not least, because given the extreme ambiguity of statements on the subject until we get confirmation of what is to happen, we have to assume the exams have been postponed rather than cancelled AND THEREFORE STILL HAVE TO PREPARE FOR THEM.
Considering we (the UK) have effectively had dry runs in China and the rest of Europe, I am surprised that the messages are so mixed and the planning still very much on the hoof. Generally I think the early phases went well, however now the instructions at least are not clear.
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and ours hasn't done enough yet.
I really despair with comments like this.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
This is nonsense, I'm afraid. Having started reasonably, the government urgently needs to speed up on two widely agreed fronts, one of which it has pledged to and the other only very vaguely ; mass testing and income support.
And that is exactly what they said at the conference with the income support coming tomorrow from the chancellor after his talks with the unions today
Big G, I have been very supportive of the Government over Coronavirus to date.
I have been impressed with Whitty and Vallance, they have always been serious and to the point.Sunak was impressive the other day. Even Williamson seems to have a handle on his brief.
Boris' performance today was an absolute clown show. Three word soundbites and mixed messages in the same sentences. He needs to hand the whole affair back to the grown-ups.
When he needs to be serious, is the Ken Dodd, purposely tousled hair effect absolutely necessary?
Yes, he was crap enough today to make it a relief when R4 abruptly cut away from him. His attempts at sounding reassuring and determined tend to have the opposite effect.
He was probably told to give a speech like Angela Merkel did yesterday, which Johnstone can't really do.
At a guess, something sensible, so it was never likely to be adopted.
Incidentally, I have spent the whole day being besieged by anxious and indeed panicking Year 11s and 13s asking what happens now. To which I can only reply, I have no idea.
As I predicted, the uncertainty is what’s upsetting them the most. Not least, because given the extreme ambiguity of statements on the subject until we get confirmation of what is to happen, we have to assume the exams have been postponed rather than cancelled AND THEREFORE STILL HAVE TO PREPARE FOR THEM.
Cyclefree did give you one or two clues in the header...
For now, I get the impression the government is attempting to triangulate between the reality before and after the pandemic hit. I’m not convinced that’s an appropriate way to address a crisis.
Astute comment. More than this, Johnson is bad at execution, which is what we need right now : "This is what we want to achieve ; this is how we do it."
Boris is doing his best I have no doubt but you can't bluff a virus and you can't blag an extended public health emergency. His skillset isn't right for this.
He is listening to the scientists which I give him credit for. And he has avoided some knee-jerk decisions which I also give him credit for. And he's doing a much, much better job than Donald Trump.
Astute comment. More than this, Johnson is bad at execution, which is what we need right now : "This is what we want to achieve ; this is how we do it."
Boris is doing his best I have no doubt but you can't bluff a virus and you can't blag an extended public health emergency. His skillset isn't right for this.
He is listening to the scientists which I give him credit for. And he has avoided some knee-jerk decisions which I also give him credit for. And he's doing a much, much better job than Donald Trump.
Trump is in a class of his own.
The pandemic will try the best statesmen and women.
Astute comment. More than this, Johnson is bad at execution, which is what we need right now : "This is what we want to achieve ; this is how we do it."
Boris is doing his best I have no doubt but you can't bluff a virus and you can't blag an extended public health emergency. His skillset isn't right for this.
He is listening to the scientists which I give him credit for. And he has avoided some knee-jerk decisions which I also give him credit for. And he's doing a much, much better job than Donald Trump.
Trump is in a class of his own.
The pandemic will try the best statesmen and women.
Presumably the only things in the USA's favour are
low population density lack of public transport.
Do their hospitals still charge $2,000 for a test? Shameful.
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
There's people who were infected before the lock down still getting tested positive. There's members of the same household getting infected. There's loads of people still going to work. There's people getting infected in hospitals, care homes etc
All those matter. And (1) is probably still the biggest factor right now.
But it's not about getting to zero, it's about getting an R0 that is nearer 0.2 than 3. And as the number of social interactions in Italy is probably down 90+%, and as people are a lot more cautious, and are using soap, etc.m we can be reasonably confident that it will come down fairly quickly.
Now, everyone is fixating on the total Italian number, but it's worth looking at the numbers for the Veneto area, which was one of the first two hotspots.
The number of new cases jumped above 200 for the first time on 12/3. It has been above there every day since, peaking at 510. It's now 270. Now it's too early to celebrate yet. But it's possible that we'll see the first number under 200 tomorrow. That would be a more than halving from the peak.
And where Veneto goes, the rest of Italy will follow (with a lag).
Astute comment. More than this, Johnson is bad at execution, which is what we need right now : "This is what we want to achieve ; this is how we do it."
Boris is doing his best I have no doubt but you can't bluff a virus and you can't blag an extended public health emergency. His skillset isn't right for this.
He is listening to the scientists which I give him credit for. And he has avoided some knee-jerk decisions which I also give him credit for. And he's doing a much, much better job than Donald Trump.
Its possible this pandemic will be the making of Johnson, in a similar way to how until Iraq the death of Diana was for Blair.
This is not something any leader should ever have to deal with, a once in a century catastrophe. His skillset may not be ideal for it but he's being calm, rational, taking the scientific advice and getting the country through it.
Astute comment. More than this, Johnson is bad at execution, which is what we need right now : "This is what we want to achieve ; this is how we do it."
Boris is doing his best I have no doubt but you can't bluff a virus and you can't blag an extended public health emergency. His skillset isn't right for this.
He is listening to the scientists which I give him credit for. And he has avoided some knee-jerk decisions which I also give him credit for. And he's doing a much, much better job than Donald Trump.
Agree with this. Johnson isn't the prime minister we need, but he's the one we've got. We need to support him and also challenge him to up his game.
Venice no propellers churning up the silt in canals, makes fish visible.
I suppose Ed Davey will be enjoying Layla Moran's woke look at me stupidity. If the Lib Dems have any sense keep her away from leadership.
From her Twitter a/c
Farage and Trump engaging in racial hatred by ‘pointing out’ the virus ‘started in China’. You know what else ‘started in China’? The fleet that discovered America in 1492.
She thinks Columbus was Chinese?
She is wrong. The Chinese sailor Zhou Man discovered the west coast of America in the 1420s. See Gavin Menzies, 1421 - The Year China discovered the World.
I think this is a microcosm of the problem with Layla Moran.
She is too like a character from HitchHiker. I would compare to Trillian, but Trillian seems too intellectual / eirenic.
Comments
Boris talking of remote press conferences
I'm going to go for Lombardy and Venice have already peaked. The rest of Italy will have their peak no later than Sunday, and maybe Fri/Sat.
The really, really interesting case to me is Germany. Because their really low death and (perhaps even more so, low ICU) rate suggests a very high level of asymptomatic cases.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8118495/Millions-need-shield-stay-home-THREE-months-weekend.html
(On top of the almost two months I've done already, I'm counting this as five months... not sure this relieves your cabin fever in any way to know some of us have it worse!)
It is worth remembering that those people that have recovered (i.e. repeatedly tested negative) can broadly return to their normal lives, as they are no longer at risk of catching or transmitting the disease.
Things are even weirder than I feared.
Just what you and others expect is unreasonable, especially as not one government across the world has defeated the virus including China, notwithstanding their improved stats
This crisis is overwhelming leaders and scientists and we need to give them the space to deal with it, and of course they will be critised, usually by keyboard warriors who have no professional knowledge of the issues
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,581 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,229 were confirmed positive. 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
So thats about 8000 more tests, and 700 more cases.
Will the Lobby push for live conference calls with Boris Johnson, once one of their number contracts Covid-19?
So thats more testing and less cases than yesterday isn't it?
Cripes!
What did you advise?
The ramp up in testing numbers is really encouraging. It's three times as many tests as a week ago.
There's members of the same household getting infected.
There's loads of people still going to work.
There's people getting infected in hospitals, care homes etc
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
rather than reddit.....
They seem to update that before the twitter page.
Seems to get updated before the twitter page.
though figures seem to have been slightly amended in the last few minutes.
I have been impressed with Whitty and Vallance, they have always been serious and to the point.Sunak was impressive the other day. Even Williamson seems to have a handle on his brief.
Boris' performance today was an absolute clown show. Three word soundbites and mixed messages in the same sentences. He needs to hand the whole affair back to the grown-ups.
When he needs to be serious, is the Ken Dodd, purposely tousled hair effect absolutely necessary?
https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1240695582055792640
Civilians should not be using the bed size lifts! Walk or use the small passenger lifts for your own sales.
Off to the Smoke to do a scoop and run for Fox jr. No temperature or symptoms.
Stay safe people!
Incidentally, I have spent the whole day being besieged by anxious and indeed panicking Year 11s and 13s asking what happens now. To which I can only reply, I have no idea.
As I predicted, the uncertainty is what’s upsetting them the most. Not least, because given the extreme ambiguity of statements on the subject until we get confirmation of what is to happen, we have to assume the exams have been postponed rather than cancelled AND THEREFORE STILL HAVE TO PREPARE FOR THEM.
His attempts at sounding reassuring and determined tend to have the opposite effect.
This thread has been locked down
For now, I get the impression the government is attempting to triangulate between the reality before and after the pandemic hit. I’m not convinced that’s an appropriate way to address a crisis.
He is listening to the scientists which I give him credit for. And he has avoided some knee-jerk decisions which I also give him credit for. And he's doing a much, much better job than Donald Trump.
The pandemic will try the best statesmen and women.
low population density
lack of public transport.
Do their hospitals still charge $2,000 for a test? Shameful.
But it's not about getting to zero, it's about getting an R0 that is nearer 0.2 than 3. And as the number of social interactions in Italy is probably down 90+%, and as people are a lot more cautious, and are using soap, etc.m we can be reasonably confident that it will come down fairly quickly.
Now, everyone is fixating on the total Italian number, but it's worth looking at the numbers for the Veneto area, which was one of the first two hotspots.
The number of new cases jumped above 200 for the first time on 12/3. It has been above there every day since, peaking at 510. It's now 270. Now it's too early to celebrate yet. But it's possible that we'll see the first number under 200 tomorrow. That would be a more than halving from the peak.
And where Veneto goes, the rest of Italy will follow (with a lag).
This is not something any leader should ever have to deal with, a once in a century catastrophe. His skillset may not be ideal for it but he's being calm, rational, taking the scientific advice and getting the country through it.
She is too like a character from HitchHiker. I would compare to Trillian, but Trillian seems too intellectual / eirenic.