My big business idea, if I had the money, would be to buy up British Legions and Working Mans clubs, give them a makeover and remarket as private members clubs. If this goes on for long, People may have gone off the idea of mixing with strangers in large, loud boozers
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
The problem with climate change is, of course, that it is so much slower. Humans struggle to develop a sense of urgency over something that happens over 100s of years, even if it is ultimately far more devastating (for our descendants, though, rather than us).
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If 10-20% of Londoners have it already this is going to be over quite quickly, and quite painfully!
Of my employees in London, out of nine, one has been diagnosed with it (as his wife), and another is exhibiting the symptoms and is self isolating at home. (But may well never get tested.)
It might very well be that 10-20% of Londoners do have this. In which case, morbidity rates are going to be less than expected. It will be extremely unpleasant, but at least it will be over with soon.
Hope it's over soon because I am already getting cabin fever.
Likewise. Went for a long walk this afternoon in the country. Just couldn’t stay in the house any longer.
I had an operation start of Feb. Aside from trips back and forth to medical appointments I've essentially been in enforced isolation since then. I can now walk again for the first time since the op, but since I'm in the "very high risk" group for COVID-19 I'm now in total lockdown for, presumably, at least the next three months. And I've had a two months head-start over you lot! Highlight of my year so far was that I have, once, walked out into my garden. I'm worried I'm going to go absolutely potty.
I have a ridiculously large reading list to get myself through that has accumulated over many years and had been making me feel increasingly guilty. Just need to make more time for myself, I told myself. Well since circumstances under my control have finally forced me to pay attention to that message I might, just might, have a chance to make a dent in that book pile...
The Bank of England has been warned that its vast rescue package of loans aimed at keeping businesses alive through the coronavirus crisis will not help the majority of retail businesses in the UK.
In a letter to Andrew Bailey, the British Retail Consortium said that “most retailers do not satisfy the criteria” set out in a market notice posted by the BoE on Wednesday to access the emergency loans.
The notice said the BoE’s Covid Corporate Financing Facility would offer cheap finance to companies that make a “material contribution to the UK economy” by purchasing from them short-term commercial paper.
The central bank said it would judge eligibility for the finance based on credit ratings provided by major rating agencies before the crisis started, and that firms should ideally have an investment-grade rating.
“We are deeply concerned that the proposed CCFF will be of no benefit whatsoever to the vast majority of retail businesses as it currently stands,” said Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC. “Retail businesses urgently need assurances as they face short term liquidity issues and are fighting to save jobs.”
The BRC letter, which was sent on Thursday afternoon, said: “Many companies do not have a short-term or long-term credit rating. This is because they have never needed one and have not used the commercial paper market before.”
Hope that the PB lawyers wash their hands carefully, once they read this. The powers seem extensive, remains to be seen how far they are used, misused.
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If 10-20% of Londoners have it already this is going to be over quite quickly, and quite painfully!
Of my employees in London, out of nine, one has been diagnosed with it (as his wife), and another is exhibiting the symptoms and is self isolating at home. (But may well never get tested.)
It might very well be that 10-20% of Londoners do have this. In which case, morbidity rates are going to be less than expected. It will be extremely unpleasant, but at least it will be over with soon.
I think to a very large extent, those remotely showing symptoms within the band of possibles are now staying isolated. Anecdotally, are people still coming across folks out there in public who are coughing?
Two days ago went for about an hours walk in zone 1, and passed two completely separate people, (one homeless, the other entitled possibly slightly pissed fiftysomething showing off to his mates), fortunately both on the other side of the road, who thought it humorous to cough at another passer by! Ridiculous behaviour. Although twice on one trip fortunately not seen anyone do that any other time.
It's everywhere in Westminster, and perhaps London.
I've just been for a quick walk. Lots of masks now in central London. Really adds to the sense of peril, seeing them. I don't like it.
En route to a medical appointment a few days back, I noticed disposable latex gloves were starting to litter the street (well, technically their former owners must have been littering the street...)
On that basis not entirely convinced COVID is a 100% victory for the environment. Maybe more like Earth 93 - 7 Humankind?
And yes, seeing shoppers in what I'd think of as surgical gloves was a bit apocalyptic.
Likewise. Went for a long walk this afternoon in the country. Just couldn’t stay in the house any longer.
What I find is that I am absolutely fine to stay inside for extended periods - that is in fact how I roll and have done for years - but with the caveat that I can go out if I want to whenever I like. Totally different if I know I can't go out. Then I feel trapped and a bit claustro. Still, mustn't grumble, so long as I don't get the virus.
Pollution expert on BBC says levels in New York City are the lowest she's ever seen.
It's fascinating - the collapse in NO2 emissions over China, the improvements in the Venice lagoon. I even think London's air quality might improve with time.
All little straws in the wind that perhaps, just perhaps, some might ask whether the headlong rush to economic growth is really worth the price to our environment and the air we breathe.
I definitely think we will see a massive increase in working from home, which can only be a good thing when it comes to pollution from vehicles in big cities.
Also it should dramatically increase productivity and reduce overcrowding on public transport. And maybe help solve the housing crisis if people can live further away from where they work.
Pollution expert on BBC says levels in New York City are the lowest she's ever seen.
It's fascinating - the collapse in NO2 emissions over China, the improvements in the Venice lagoon. I even think London's air quality might improve with time.
All little straws in the wind that perhaps, just perhaps, some might ask whether the headlong rush to economic growth is really worth the price to our environment and the air we breathe.
I definitely think we will see a massive increase in working from home, which can only be a good thing when it comes to pollution from vehicles in big cities.
Unquestionably a lot of people are going to be learning home-working skills that they never knew they had, or had before - getting used to the software, getting over the initial collective awkwardness and unfamiliarity that many people initially feel in the group meetings, and most importantly getting over the idea that it's always second best, or less socially prestigious.
Son's children, ages 14, 12 and 6 (yes, I know), have been sent home as school is closed, but he and his wife are expected to ensure that they log onto their ;laptops, Idas or whatever punctually each morning and do the school work the school have sent her. Different classes every so often, just like school. It's not too bad with the elder two but of course the youngest needs watching and, often, help from Mum or Dad. And Mum's around, but has a house to run, and dad's working from home. It's not as easy as it sounds.
I'm unclear what you are saying. Sounds like the school have done a great job and with 2 adults around their situation would be envious to many less fortunately placed. Is it so hard to 'run a house' in 2020.
Pollution expert on BBC says levels in New York City are the lowest she's ever seen.
It's fascinating - the collapse in NO2 emissions over China, the improvements in the Venice lagoon. I even think London's air quality might improve with time.
All little straws in the wind that perhaps, just perhaps, some might ask whether the headlong rush to economic growth is really worth the price to our environment and the air we breathe.
I definitely think we will see a massive increase in working from home, which can only be a good thing when it comes to pollution from vehicles in big cities.
Also it should dramatically increase productivity and reduce overcrowding on public transport. And maybe help solve the housing crisis if people can live further away from where they work.
Dramatically increase productivity? Mine has fallen through the floor not being in my office.
Wouldn't now be a great time to test Universal Basic Income?
I have though for many years that UBI is a great idea but, unless you want to collapse the currency, it has to be accompanied with higher taxes.
The economy and all others are collapsing regardless, the question is how to kick start them. Flatten the curve......not hoping for normal......applies to the economy as much as the virus.
Number of UK deaths holds steady at 33 compared to yesterday. Is this a sign things might be about to improve?
I think London is a couple of weeks off peak. Shutdowns take a while to work.
Agreed. On the plus side (there is a plus side) the shutdown we are performing here (even not a fully mandated one, but essentially people working at home), is taking place at an earlier time point than equivalent shutdowns across Italy and Spain. This will still give us a terrible period, but perhaps the distancing / hand-washing etc., will help minimize the peak here a little.
Note this focuses on the symptomatic Case Fatality Rate. I think more recent data (e.g., from Iceland / Veneto) would suggest the fraction of asymptomatic carriers is larger than 50% (probably closer to 75-95%; although could even be a little higher). Also, they assume the fraction of symptomatic infections is constant across age, which I find quite a strong assertion. The upshot could be that the Infection Fatality rate would be a fraction of the number assumed here I think, so likely quite a bit under 1%.
The best evidence for high levels of asymptomatic infections is probably Germany. Check out how many people there are considered to be in serious/critical condition.
The problem with climate change is, of course, that it is so much slower. Humans struggle to develop a sense of urgency over something that happens over 100s of years, even if it is ultimately far more devastating (for our descendants, though, rather than us).
We have seen recently that humans struggle to develop a sense of urgency over something that happens over three to four weeks. Go back that far and read the thoughts of the yebbut flu/road deaths geniuses on this site.
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
This country should have had bidet in bathrooms. Cleaner to was your backside.
Wouldn't now be a great time to test Universal Basic Income?
I have though for many years that UBI is a great idea but, unless you want to collapse the currency, it has to be accompanied with higher taxes.
The economy and all others are collapsing regardless, the question is how to kick start them. Flatten the curve......not hoping for normal......applies to the economy as much as the virus.
Number of UK deaths holds steady at 33 compared to yesterday. Is this a sign things might be about to improve?
I think London is a couple of weeks off peak. Shutdowns take a while to work.
Agreed. On the plus side (there is a plus side) the shutdown we are performing here (even not a fully mandated one, but essentially people working at home), is taking place at an earlier time point than equivalent shutdowns across Italy and Spain. This will still give us a terrible period, but perhaps the distancing / hand-washing etc., will help minimize the peak here a little.
Note this focuses on the symptomatic Case Fatality Rate. I think more recent data (e.g., from Iceland / Veneto) would suggest the fraction of asymptomatic carriers is larger than 50% (probably closer to 75-95%; although could even be a little higher). Also, they assume the fraction of symptomatic infections is constant across age, which I find quite a strong assertion. The upshot could be that the Infection Fatality rate would be a fraction of the number assumed here I think, so likely quite a bit under 1%.
If I remember rightly, of the 11 citizens in Vo who were diagnosed with CV-19, 9 were entirely asymptomatic.
My big business idea, if I had the money, would be to buy up British Legions and Working Mans clubs, give them a makeover and remarket as private members clubs. If this goes on for long, People may have gone off the idea of mixing with strangers in large, loud boozers
Working men's clubs around here are enormous, much bigger than an average pub.
The Asda driver has just handed in 3 bottles of milk to us on his own initiative in his own time and free as Asda did not provide milk in our delivery. A much kinder gentler world beckons
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
This country should have had bidet in bathrooms. Cleaner to was your backside.
Pollution expert on BBC says levels in New York City are the lowest she's ever seen.
It's fascinating - the collapse in NO2 emissions over China, the improvements in the Venice lagoon. I even think London's air quality might improve with time.
All little straws in the wind that perhaps, just perhaps, some might ask whether the headlong rush to economic growth is really worth the price to our environment and the air we breathe.
I definitely think we will see a massive increase in working from home, which can only be a good thing when it comes to pollution from vehicles in big cities.
Unquestionably a lot of people are going to be learning home-working skills that they never knew they had, or had before - getting used to the software, getting over the initial collective awkwardness and unfamiliarity that many people initially feel in the group meetings, and most importantly getting over the idea that it's always second best, or less socially prestigious.
Son's children, ages 14, 12 and 6 (yes, I know), have been sent home as school is closed, but he and his wife are expected to ensure that they log onto their ;laptops, Idas or whatever punctually each morning and do the school work the school have sent her. Different classes every so often, just like school. It's not too bad with the elder two but of course the youngest needs watching and, often, help from Mum or Dad. And Mum's around, but has a house to run, and dad's working from home. It's not as easy as it sounds.
I'm unclear what you are saying. Sounds like the school have done a great job and with 2 adults around their situation would be envious to many less fortunately placed. Is it so hard to 'run a house' in 2020.
See your point. Mum's not Brit, and her English isn't very good and school teaches in English, so there's a bit more of a load on Dad. Mum can police the older two, of course. You're right about the school's arrangements of course!
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
This country should have had bidet in bathrooms. Cleaner to was your backside.
Got one!
When I lived with my parents they had one years ago. Never understood why they were not more popular in British homes.
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
This country should have had bidet in bathrooms. Cleaner to was your backside.
The Asda driver has just handed in 3 bottles of milk to us on his own initiative in his own time and free as Asda did not provide milk in our delivery. A much kinder gentler world beckons
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
Yorkshire Building Society just e mailed me about the current situation. With the current rates at 0.1% , will they start charging me to hold my savings ?
So it should. We are essentially at war. Get used to it.
At war with a virus who might also be spying or robbing banks? It sounds unlikely. You know who did arrest people without warrants in the build-up to the war? The other side.
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
This country should have had bidet in bathrooms. Cleaner to was your backside.
Got one!
When I lived with my parents they had one years ago. Never understood why they were not more popular in British homes.
Wonder if bidets becoming mainstream is going to be one of the less-anticipated results of this pandemic? I can see news reports of increased sales from the USA and Australia too, but that might just be a temporary peak from a very small base. I know quite a few people in London from Muslim backgrounds who have a shataf (which a lot of them call a "Muslim shower"). I asked a Thai friend yesterday if the panic buying that's just started there had led to a loo roll shortage and they said there was no need because they all had "toilet sprinkles" which I thought was a rather quaint word for the same thing. "Bidet" sounds a bit, hmm, French and sophisticated and not obvious how to use? "Bum gun" or "toilet sprinkle" are a bit more "do what it says on the tin". (Incidentally, how many people who say they have a "bidet" really have a separate installation, as opposed to a "bidet shower" which might be easier to retrofit into a cramped British bathroom?)
The Asda driver has just handed in 3 bottles of milk to us on his own initiative in his own time and free as Asda did not provide milk in our delivery. A much kinder gentler world beckons
This is a kind and gentle world the vast majority of the time, we just tend to forget about it and take it for granted. Its when we really need it that we notice and appreciate the goodness in people.
The darkness in humanity gets noticed far too often, but the goodness is much greater. Times like this remind us of that fact.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
This country should have had bidet in bathrooms. Cleaner to was your backside.
Got one!
When I lived with my parents they had one years ago. Never understood why they were not more popular in British homes.
Wonder if bidets becoming mainstream is going to be one of the less-anticipated results of this pandemic? I can see news reports of increased sales from the USA and Australia too, but that might just be a temporary peak from a very small base. I know quite a few people in London from Muslim backgrounds who have a shataf (which a lot of them call a "Muslim shower"). I asked a Thai friend yesterday if the panic buying that's just started there had led to a loo roll shortage and they said there was no need because they all had "toilet sprinkles" which I thought was a rather quaint word for the same thing. "Bidet" sounds a bit, hmm, French and sophisticated and not obvious how to use? "Bum gun" or "toilet sprinkle" are a bit more "do what it says on the tin". (Incidentally, how many people who say they have a "bidet" really have a separate installation, as opposed to a "bidet shower" which might be easier to retrofit into a cramped British bathroom?)
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
This country should have had bidet in bathrooms. Cleaner to was your backside.
Got one!
When I lived with my parents they had one years ago. Never understood why they were not more popular in British homes.
Wonder if bidets becoming mainstream is going to be one of the less-anticipated results of this pandemic? I can see news reports of increased sales from the USA and Australia too, but that might just be a temporary peak from a very small base. I know quite a few people in London from Muslim backgrounds who have a shataf (which a lot of them call a "Muslim shower"). I asked a Thai friend yesterday if the panic buying that's just started there had led to a loo roll shortage and they said there was no need because they all had "toilet sprinkles" which I thought was a rather quaint word for the same thing. "Bidet" sounds a bit, hmm, French and sophisticated and not obvious how to use? "Bum gun" or "toilet sprinkle" are a bit more "do what it says on the tin". (Incidentally, how many people who say they have a "bidet" really have a separate installation, as opposed to a "bidet shower" which might be easier to retrofit into a cramped British bathroom?)
Yes that seems a good idea. I guess the space in new housing bathrooms is one reason, they were not fitted.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
Absolutely right. We should be aiming to test a random selection of 10,000 Londoners to give us a really good feel for true (current) infection rates, while remembering that some people may have already have it, and recovered.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If 10-20% of Londoners have it already this is going to be over quite quickly, and quite painfully!
Of my employees in London, out of nine, one has been diagnosed with it (as his wife), and another is exhibiting the symptoms and is self isolating at home. (But may well never get tested.)
It might very well be that 10-20% of Londoners do have this. In which case, morbidity rates are going to be less than expected. It will be extremely unpleasant, but at least it will be over with soon.
I think to a very large extent, those remotely showing symptoms within the band of possibles are now staying isolated. Anecdotally, are people still coming across folks out there in public who are coughing?
When I was in the supermarket earlier this week I noticed a few coughs. Probably no more than you'd normally hear but now every time someone coughs you pick it up immediately rather than ignoring it.
Just as well that classical music concerts are all cancelled, then.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
I understand the importance of not having infected people in GP surgeries, but my 80 year old mother (and a bunch of other people) have spent some time standing outside the GPs whilst the people inside stare out at them and refuse to interact or deal with them. Some people where there for regular treatments - one young lad was there because he regularly needs a particular injection that can only be given by a GP.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Without leaking what I have just been leaked I hear it will be an interesting one
Guessing rationed home delivery services?
Free hotel stays for essential workers? Cancelling Easter/Passover/Ramadan next month? Restarting football behind closed doors? Internment of journalists who ask awkward questions?
Human`s true nature will reveal itself - civility is a thin veneer I`m afraid.
I was behind a woman in the supermarket queue yesterday who was ranting at the young chap on the checkout. Curiously she was from that generation that often bills itself as the last remaining one able to deal with a crisis.
I understand the importance of not having infected people in GP surgeries, but my 80 year old mother (and a bunch of other people) have spent some time standing outside the GPs whilst the people inside stare out at them and refuse to interact or deal with them. Some people where there for regular treatments - one young lad was there because he regularly needs a particular injection that can only be given by a GP.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Discuss....
Did your mother have an appointment before turning up to the GP? You're not supposed to turn up without one.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
Well, yes and no.
Because we know from Italy that - left unchecked - thousands of people will die in short order, and hospitals will be rapidly overloaded.
But perhaps that is as bad as it gets. Perhaps it's horrendous like that for six weeks, and 20,000 people die, but then it's over. In which case, as callous as it sounds, that might be the strategy with the lowest number of total deaths.
But if the morbidity rate is 1%, not 0.1%, then the hospitals will be be utterly overcrowded, 10x worse than Italy was and half a million people die, including a lot of young fit people who were just unlucky.
Human`s true nature will reveal itself - civility is a thin veneer I`m afraid.
I was behind a woman in the supermarket queue yesterday who was ranting at the young chap on the checkout. Curiously she was from that generation that often bills itself as the last remaining one able to deal with a crisis.
I don't understand why the Government hasn't got a grip on this.
It is the main source of panic around my way. The endless txts about the behaviour of others down at the supermarket. This makes other people think there is a problem and join in.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
"On this basis I have started buying equities."
Brave. Very very brave.
They're already down 33% - if there is a quick rebound then if they were to recover back to where they are that would be a 50% increase from here.
It doesn't need to recover all the way back up to gain a lot. Even if only a half of the losses are recovered that will be a 25% growth from here.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
It's worth noting that the Imperial College study assumed 50% of infectees would be asymptomatic or practically asymptomatic.
If that's lower, then the hospitalisation rates, critical care rates, and death toll would be higher. If the asymptomatic rates are higher, then all the above would be lower. But it's worth bearing in mind that the core assumption is already that half of all cases would be asymptomatic.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
"On this basis I have started buying equities."
Brave. Very very brave.
I am starting to wonder whether 5000/20000 will see the floor, at least until we know whether we are destined to suffer Corona: the sequel in the autumn. You will have noted, I am sure, my prediction this morning that today would see a modest stock market recovery.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
I understand the importance of not having infected people in GP surgeries, but my 80 year old mother (and a bunch of other people) have spent some time standing outside the GPs whilst the people inside stare out at them and refuse to interact or deal with them. Some people where there for regular treatments - one young lad was there because he regularly needs a particular injection that can only be given by a GP.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Discuss....
Did your mother have an appointment before turning up to the GP? You're not supposed to turn up without one.
"No appointments are being made."
Really? So what are GPs doing? Just over the phone?
I understand the importance of not having infected people in GP surgeries, but my 80 year old mother (and a bunch of other people) have spent some time standing outside the GPs whilst the people inside stare out at them and refuse to interact or deal with them. Some people where there for regular treatments - one young lad was there because he regularly needs a particular injection that can only be given by a GP.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Discuss....
Did your mother have an appointment before turning up to the GP? You're not supposed to turn up without one.
Yes. They cancelled all appointments, but they did not tell anyone. There is simply a notice on the door.
I understand the importance of not having infected people in GP surgeries, but my 80 year old mother (and a bunch of other people) have spent some time standing outside the GPs whilst the people inside stare out at them and refuse to interact or deal with them. Some people where there for regular treatments - one young lad was there because he regularly needs a particular injection that can only be given by a GP.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Discuss....
Did your mother have an appointment before turning up to the GP? You're not supposed to turn up without one.
Yes. They cancelled all appointments, but they did not tell anyone. There is simply a notice on the door.
I understand the importance of not having infected people in GP surgeries, but my 80 year old mother (and a bunch of other people) have spent some time standing outside the GPs whilst the people inside stare out at them and refuse to interact or deal with them. Some people where there for regular treatments - one young lad was there because he regularly needs a particular injection that can only be given by a GP.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Discuss....
Did your mother have an appointment before turning up to the GP? You're not supposed to turn up without one.
"No appointments are being made."
Really? So what are GPs doing? Just over the phone?
A number of GPs have turned to over the phone or video appointments to stop the spread of disease - only booking face to face appointments for those who 100% need it.
Turning up to the building without an appointment won't change that, you need to call and go through the receptionist as awkward as that may be.
Without leaking what I have just been leaked I hear it will be an interesting one
Guessing rationed home delivery services?
Free hotel stays for essential workers? Cancelling Easter/Passover/Ramadan next month? Restarting football behind closed doors? Internment of journalists who ask awkward questions?
Using hotels for NHS workers makes a lot of sense. Similarly can we use restaurants to make and deliver food to vulnerable self isolating groups? Govt to pay market rates for both of those would give some comfort to the hospitality sector and help hospitals.
I understand the importance of not having infected people in GP surgeries, but my 80 year old mother (and a bunch of other people) have spent some time standing outside the GPs whilst the people inside stare out at them and refuse to interact or deal with them. Some people where there for regular treatments - one young lad was there because he regularly needs a particular injection that can only be given by a GP.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Discuss....
Did your mother have an appointment before turning up to the GP? You're not supposed to turn up without one.
Yes. They cancelled all appointments, but they did not tell anyone. There is simply a notice on the door.
That's awful. No shame in cancelling the appointments (if they had a suspected case they'd have to shut down) but they should have told people.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
"On this basis I have started buying equities."
Brave. Very very brave.
They're already down 33% - if there is a quick rebound then if they were to recover back to where they are that would be a 50% increase from here.
It doesn't need to recover all the way back up to gain a lot. Even if only a half of the losses are recovered that will be a 25% growth from here.
It will be a long time before we see FTSE7000/Dow27000 again, not least because those valuations were always unsustainable, and the dysfunctional nature of an economy propped up by near-zero interest rates and periodic hypodermic fixes of QE remains unresolved. The best we can hope for is a return to some sort of happy medium.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
That's right. We also need a random serology test of the total population to find out what % have had it and what % were without symptoms. More valuable than your usual YouGov poll.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
"On this basis I have started buying equities."
Brave. Very very brave.
They're already down 33% - if there is a quick rebound then if they were to recover back to where they are that would be a 50% increase from here.
It doesn't need to recover all the way back up to gain a lot. Even if only a half of the losses are recovered that will be a 25% growth from here.
It will be a long time before we see FTSE7000/Dow27000 again, not least because those valuations were always unsustainable, and the dysfunctional nature of an economy propped up by near-zero interest rates and periodic hypodermic fixes of QE remains unresolved. The best we can hope for is a return to some sort of happy medium.
But you don't need to see FTSE 7000 to be a winner buying at 5000. FTSE 6000 is quite possible in a year or two if this burns out rapidly - in which case buying now gives a 20% return in a year potentially.
Comments
https://twitter.com/PA/status/1240670327975432192
I have a ridiculously large reading list to get myself through that has accumulated over many years and had been making me feel increasingly guilty. Just need to make more time for myself, I told myself. Well since circumstances under my control have finally forced me to pay attention to that message I might, just might, have a chance to make a dent in that book pile...
In a letter to Andrew Bailey, the British Retail Consortium said that “most retailers do not satisfy the criteria” set out in a market notice posted by the BoE on Wednesday to access the emergency loans.
The notice said the BoE’s Covid Corporate Financing Facility would offer cheap finance to companies that make a “material contribution to the UK economy” by purchasing from them short-term commercial paper.
The central bank said it would judge eligibility for the finance based on credit ratings provided by major rating agencies before the crisis started, and that firms should ideally have an investment-grade rating.
“We are deeply concerned that the proposed CCFF will be of no benefit whatsoever to the vast majority of retail businesses as it currently stands,” said Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC. “Retail businesses urgently need assurances as they face short term liquidity issues and are fighting to save jobs.”
The BRC letter, which was sent on Thursday afternoon, said: “Many companies do not have a short-term or long-term credit rating. This is because they have never needed one and have not used the commercial paper market before.”
https://www.ft.com/content/393d4142-69f1-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1240672680732430336/photo/1
On a flippant note it might make Piers Peston, and Robert Morgan think before they post.
On that basis not entirely convinced COVID is a 100% victory for the environment. Maybe more like Earth 93 - 7 Humankind?
And yes, seeing shoppers in what I'd think of as surgical gloves was a bit apocalyptic.
Christ.
Cleaner to was your backside.
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1240677617491226624
You're right about the school's arrangements of course!
Never understood why they were not more popular in British homes.
Oh, you meant a bidet.
Not before time, said a grateful nation.
https://www.empireofthekop.com/2020/03/19/james-milner-has-worked-out-how-many-bottles-of-ribena-hed-need-to-fill-the-ucl-trophy/
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1240669062407036928
With the current rates at 0.1% , will they start charging me to hold my savings ?
They end up in jail if they do that in three days, according to the government's new 'war powers'- style act.
Don't suppose it will happen though. Or rather we'll get the first but not the second.
The darkness in humanity gets noticed far too often, but the goodness is much greater. Times like this remind us of that fact.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/tonikaarttinen/37421798344/
I guess the space in new housing bathrooms is one reason, they were not fitted.
Brave. Very very brave.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Discuss....
Because we know from Italy that - left unchecked - thousands of people will die in short order, and hospitals will be rapidly overloaded.
But perhaps that is as bad as it gets. Perhaps it's horrendous like that for six weeks, and 20,000 people die, but then it's over. In which case, as callous as it sounds, that might be the strategy with the lowest number of total deaths.
But if the morbidity rate is 1%, not 0.1%, then the hospitals will be be utterly overcrowded, 10x worse than Italy was and half a million people die, including a lot of young fit people who were just unlucky.
We need to test. And we need to test now.
It is the main source of panic around my way. The endless txts about the behaviour of others down at the supermarket. This makes other people think there is a problem and join in.
It doesn't need to recover all the way back up to gain a lot. Even if only a half of the losses are recovered that will be a 25% growth from here.
If that's lower, then the hospitalisation rates, critical care rates, and death toll would be higher.
If the asymptomatic rates are higher, then all the above would be lower. But it's worth bearing in mind that the core assumption is already that half of all cases would be asymptomatic.
Really? So what are GPs doing? Just over the phone?
Turning up to the building without an appointment won't change that, you need to call and go through the receptionist as awkward as that may be.