Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
That's right. We also need a random serology test of the total population to find out what % have had it and what % were without symptoms. More valuable than your usual YouGov poll.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
I love the stattos on here predicting armageddon. Noone knows the true figs and even if coronavirus was the cause of death ir just a contributing factor.. there are lies liescand damned statistics
The prime minister of the Netherlands has offered reassurances amid the global coronavirus outbreak: telling citizens there is no shortage of loo roll, Reuters report.
He added: “But there’s enough in the whole country for the coming 10 years. We can all poop for 10 years.”
And after that?!?!
Then the shit hits the fan.
I don't think you are using the toilet right.
Using a fan to blow the crap off your backside is a novel alternative to bog roll.
This country should have had bidet in bathrooms. Cleaner to was your backside.
Got one!
When I lived with my parents they had one years ago. Never understood why they were not more popular in British homes.
Wonder if bidets becoming mainstream is going to be one of the less-anticipated results of this pandemic? I can see news reports of increased sales from the USA and Australia too, but that might just be a temporary peak from a very small base. I know quite a few people in London from Muslim backgrounds who have a shataf (which a lot of them call a "Muslim shower"). I asked a Thai friend yesterday if the panic buying that's just started there had led to a loo roll shortage and they said there was no need because they all had "toilet sprinkles" which I thought was a rather quaint word for the same thing. "Bidet" sounds a bit, hmm, French and sophisticated and not obvious how to use? "Bum gun" or "toilet sprinkle" are a bit more "do what it says on the tin". (Incidentally, how many people who say they have a "bidet" really have a separate installation, as opposed to a "bidet shower" which might be easier to retrofit into a cramped British bathroom?)
I've always been tempted by one of them - I can easily get through three loo rolls in a day just by myself, more if my insides are really playing me up. When your metric switches from "loo rolls per week" to "loo rolls per day" you know you've got problems; once you're on "loo rolls per hour", and I've been there, then no matter how squeamishly British you are talking about these things, it really is time to pop in and have a chat with the doctor folks! Even the "luxury" bog paper really starts to cane if you're getting through it at that rate. I have often wondered if other options might be kinder on my poor backside.
A friend from the Philippines told me about their tabo but the Japanese toilet was a far more appealing option, not least hygienically. Only thing is, and I'm sure I'm not alone in this putting me off, they look so complicated! How could I work out how to use the thing? Similarly, how to explain it to guests? I also didn't really like the idea of different people who use your bathroom all using that keypad! If I got one I think I'd end up becoming a paranoid user of antiseptic wipes. (Arguably illogical bearing in mind I don't have an equivalent fear of the flush handle, but a keypad used while on the loo just seems a bit "icky" for some reason. When I use someone else's loo I do occasionally take one sheet of loo roll and put that around the flush handle before depressing it, particularly if the cleanliness of the rest of the bathroom is looking questionable!)
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
It's worth noting that the Imperial College study assumed 50% of infectees would be asymptomatic or practically asymptomatic.
If that's lower, then the hospitalisation rates, critical care rates, and death toll would be higher. If the asymptomatic rates are higher, then all the above would be lower. But it's worth bearing in mind that the core assumption is already that half of all cases would be asymptomatic.
It's not only the assumption about the % who are asymptomatic. It is the assumption of how many have been infected. We don't know because we are not testing random samples but only hospital cases. [Soory I clicked on off-topic by mistake instead of quote]
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
If he is correct, there is no question it is the wrong approach!
"On this basis I have started buying equities."
Brave. Very very brave.
They're already down 33% - if there is a quick rebound then if they were to recover back to where they are that would be a 50% increase from here.
It doesn't need to recover all the way back up to gain a lot. Even if only a half of the losses are recovered that will be a 25% growth from here.
It will be a long time before we see FTSE7000/Dow27000 again, not least because those valuations were always unsustainable, and the dysfunctional nature of an economy propped up by near-zero interest rates and periodic hypodermic fixes of QE remains unresolved. The best we can hope for is a return to some sort of happy medium.
But you don't need to see FTSE 7000 to be a winner buying at 5000. FTSE 6000 is quite possible in a year or two if this burns out rapidly - in which case buying now gives a 20% return in a year potentially.
The trick now is spotting those companies that have unreasonably been sold down, because lots of people have been selling everything, or selling ETFs or pooled funds that include every company in the index. For example I bought back in to National Grid and so far that looks like a good call. The challenge is that a further turn of bad news on the virus, either in the short term or after a summer respite, could trigger a renewed round of selling.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
That's right. We also need a random serology test of the total population to find out what % have had it and what % were without symptoms. More valuable than your usual YouGov poll.
I've had the most minor cold symptons you can imagine, no idea if it's a cold, psychoschematic, pre-symptomatic COVID, asymptomatic COVID. I think it's a rinovirus my body can't be bothered to completely finish off as it's untroubled by it but you never know.
MIAMI, March 19, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE/LSE: CCL; NYSE: CUK), the world's largest leisure travel company, today announced that select cruise ships from the company's global cruise line brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises and P&O Cruises Australia, will be made available to communities for use as temporary hospitals to help address the escalating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare systems around the world.
Earlier we reported that Bruno Bruins, the minister spearheading the Netherlands' response to the coronavirus outbreak, had collapsed from exhaustion during a debate in parliament on Dutch readiness for the pandemic. The sitting was immediately suspended.
A day later and the health minister has resigned. Mr Bruins tweeted on Wednesday night that he had fainted because of "exhaustion and intensive weeks" but planned to get back to work on Thursday.
The reason for his resignation is not yet clear. Another 18 people have died in the Netherlands in the past 24 hours, bringing to 76 the number of fatalities. All are aged 63 to 95.
I understand the importance of not having infected people in GP surgeries, but my 80 year old mother (and a bunch of other people) have spent some time standing outside the GPs whilst the people inside stare out at them and refuse to interact or deal with them. Some people where there for regular treatments - one young lad was there because he regularly needs a particular injection that can only be given by a GP.
No appointments are being made. No visits are permitted.
You just cannot stop ALL medical work. If doctors are inaccessible and refusing to deal with patients, then we no longer really have an NHS.
Discuss....
Did your mother have an appointment before turning up to the GP? You're not supposed to turn up without one.
Yes. They cancelled all appointments, but they did not tell anyone. There is simply a notice on the door.
That's awful. No shame in cancelling the appointments (if they had a suspected case they'd have to shut down) but they should have told people.
I got through on the phone by dialling a number used for blood test results and then "... press 6 to speak to a member of staff".
Apparently all routine work has now stopped. If you develop something nasty then phone in and they will phone triage you. Of course, some of the people in the car park where there because no one answers the phone. One man decided after an hour on hold that it was quicker to walk across the road and ask
Parish news: one villager wants to volunteer as a shopper for elderly and vulnerable people in our village. So far so laudable. However, she is demanding that the parish council (using taxpayer money of course) indemnify her for loss should she spend money on shopping and fail to recoup it from the person that she purchased it for.
The parish council is scratching its head over this. Any suggestions?
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
That's right. We also need a random serology test of the total population to find out what % have had it and what % were without symptoms. More valuable than your usual YouGov poll.
I've had the most minor cold symptons you can imagine, no idea if it's a cold, psychoschematic, pre-symptomatic COVID, asymptomatic COVID. I think it's a rinovirus my body can't be bothered to completely finish off as it's untroubled by it but you never know.
Anecdotally, as Barnesian says, this is very common around the country at the moment. I've had extremely minor cold symptoms myself for around the last week.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
That's right. We also need a random serology test of the total population to find out what % have had it and what % were without symptoms. More valuable than your usual YouGov poll.
I've had the most minor cold symptons you can imagine, no idea if it's a cold, psychoschematic, pre-symptomatic COVID, asymptomatic COVID. I think it's a rinovirus my body can't be bothered to completely finish off as it's untroubled by it but you never know.
I had what seemed to be a heavy cold about a month ago - blocked sinuses (painful), very sore throat. It took about 2 weeks to clear, but is still lingering ever so slightly in the throat.
I'd travelled through France, and flown back from CdG airport.
Was that it? Never had a 'cold' like it, barely any runny nose stuff.
MIAMI, March 19, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE/LSE: CCL; NYSE: CUK), the world's largest leisure travel company, today announced that select cruise ships from the company's global cruise line brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises and P&O Cruises Australia, will be made available to communities for use as temporary hospitals to help address the escalating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare systems around the world.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
That's right. We also need a random serology test of the total population to find out what % have had it and what % were without symptoms. More valuable than your usual YouGov poll.
I've had the most minor cold symptons you can imagine, no idea if it's a cold, psychoschematic, pre-symptomatic COVID, asymptomatic COVID. I think it's a rinovirus my body can't be bothered to completely finish off as it's untroubled by it but you never know.
I had what seemed to be a heavy cold about a month ago - blocked sinuses (painful), very sore throat. It took about 2 weeks to clear, but is still lingering ever so slightly in the throat.
I'd travelled through France, and flown back from CdG airport.
Was that it? Never had a 'cold' like it, barely any runny nose stuff.
Sounds suspicious. Isn't the lack of a runny nose the big tell-tale sign?
Parish news: one villager wants to volunteer as a shopper for elderly and vulnerable people in our village. So far so laudable. However, she is demanding that the parish council (using taxpayer money of course) indemnify her for loss should she spend money on shopping and fail to recoup it from the person that she purchased it for.
The parish council is scratching its head over this. Any suggestions?
If she's financially struggling herself, fine. If she's relatively well-off, not so laudable.
Parish news: one villager wants to volunteer as a shopper for elderly and vulnerable people in our village. So far so laudable. However, she is demanding that the parish council (using taxpayer money of course) indemnify her for loss should she spend money on shopping and fail to recoup it from the person that she purchased it for.
The parish council is scratching its head over this. Any suggestions?
Knock on the door of the 5 best houses in the village and ask them to share the indemnity? One of them might even decide to pay for it all!
Parish news: one villager wants to volunteer as a shopper for elderly and vulnerable people in our village. So far so laudable. However, she is demanding that the parish council (using taxpayer money of course) indemnify her for loss should she spend money on shopping and fail to recoup it from the person that she purchased it for.
The parish council is scratching its head over this. Any suggestions?
In all honesty, nothing to do with a parish council. She should take a deposit from her customers prior to going to shop for their orders.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
That's right. We also need a random serology test of the total population to find out what % have had it and what % were without symptoms. More valuable than your usual YouGov poll.
I've had the most minor cold symptons you can imagine, no idea if it's a cold, psychoschematic, pre-symptomatic COVID, asymptomatic COVID. I think it's a rinovirus my body can't be bothered to completely finish off as it's untroubled by it but you never know.
I had what seemed to be a heavy cold about a month ago - blocked sinuses (painful), very sore throat. It took about 2 weeks to clear, but is still lingering ever so slightly in the throat.
I'd travelled through France, and flown back from CdG airport.
Was that it? Never had a 'cold' like it, barely any runny nose stuff.
Sounds suspicious. Isn't the lack of a runny nose the big tell-tale sign?
It ran a bit, but despite the fact my sinuses were wrecked, not much was happening.
I don't mean to sound dim, but we knew next to nothing about the symptoms then, and I always get throat infections or the like when flying. I just chalked it up to the usual type of bug that's floating about in late winter.
Earlier we reported that Bruno Bruins, the minister spearheading the Netherlands' response to the coronavirus outbreak, had collapsed from exhaustion during a debate in parliament on Dutch readiness for the pandemic. The sitting was immediately suspended.
A day later and the health minister has resigned. Mr Bruins tweeted on Wednesday night that he had fainted because of "exhaustion and intensive weeks" but planned to get back to work on Thursday.
The reason for his resignation is not yet clear. Another 18 people have died in the Netherlands in the past 24 hours, bringing to 76 the number of fatalities. All are aged 63 to 95.
Dutch aquaintances have told me that the wider public there wasn't entirely appreciative of the 'herd immunity' thing.
Parish news: one villager wants to volunteer as a shopper for elderly and vulnerable people in our village. So far so laudable. However, she is demanding that the parish council (using taxpayer money of course) indemnify her for loss should she spend money on shopping and fail to recoup it from the person that she purchased it for.
The parish council is scratching its head over this. Any suggestions?
Well, if they don't pay her, don't give them their shopping.
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
We need random tests too - not just hospital patients and healthcare staff. A sample of say 5,000 random would provide valuable info.
Great when we have the capacity. At the minute though we aren't able to test everyone we need to whom is a healthcare worker, that surely has to come first?
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
I know
I'm just impatient.
@rcs1000 The numbers from Italy are really shooting up at present (5200 new cases today; - not so much in Lombardy or Veneto (though there are still local increases) but in the other provinces that were not part of the initial lockdown. Since Italy went into lockdown on Monday 9th March, do you still expect a peak tomorrow? The numbers are really rising quite sharply, which makes me rather concerned about the efficacy of their lockdown...
The Italian lockdown is apparently going to get more stringent.
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
I know
I'm just impatient.
@rcs1000 The numbers from Italy are really shooting up at present (5200 new cases today; - not so much in Lombardy or Veneto (though there are still local increases) but in the other provinces that were not part of the initial lockdown. Since Italy went into lockdown on Monday 9th March, do you still expect a peak tomorrow? The numbers are really rising quite sharply, which makes me rather concerned about the efficacy of their lockdown...
The Italian lockdown is apparently going to get more stringent.
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
I know
I'm just impatient.
@rcs1000 The numbers from Italy are really shooting up at present (5200 new cases today; - not so much in Lombardy or Veneto (though there are still local increases) but in the other provinces that were not part of the initial lockdown. Since Italy went into lockdown on Monday 9th March, do you still expect a peak tomorrow? The numbers are really rising quite sharply, which makes me rather concerned about the efficacy of their lockdown...
The Italian lockdown is apparently going to get more stringent.
If we are facing a 15% hit to GDP surely it would make sense to throw every resource available at making test kits. If we could test a majority of the population over the next three weeks we could probably reduce that GDP hit by 10%!
Easier said than done I'm sure but it'd make sense.
Parish news: one villager wants to volunteer as a shopper for elderly and vulnerable people in our village. So far so laudable. However, she is demanding that the parish council (using taxpayer money of course) indemnify her for loss should she spend money on shopping and fail to recoup it from the person that she purchased it for.
The parish council is scratching its head over this. Any suggestions?
In all honesty, nothing to do with a parish council. She should take a deposit from her customers prior to going to shop for their orders.
I agree. Parish Councils are strictly forbidden to pay across money to some people but not others. This would, it seems to me, break the rules. It is also open to corruption - buy either the volunteer or the person that is being helped. I`m hoping they refuse to get involved and advise her to get all of the money upfront. The only thing the Parish Council could do is offer to publicise the initiative.
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
We need random tests too - not just hospital patients and healthcare staff. A sample of say 5,000 random would provide valuable info.
Have the gold diggers at your Egyptian mine all fallen ill?
CEY share price has dropped in spite of the rise in the price of gold. I'm still holding it. Just in the green. Today I bought GOG (massively oversold and enormous yield) and RIO (Chinese recovery).
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
I know
I'm just impatient.
@rcs1000 The numbers from Italy are really shooting up at present (5200 new cases today; - not so much in Lombardy or Veneto (though there are still local increases) but in the other provinces that were not part of the initial lockdown. Since Italy went into lockdown on Monday 9th March, do you still expect a peak tomorrow? The numbers are really rising quite sharply, which makes me rather concerned about the efficacy of their lockdown...
The Italian lockdown is apparently going to get more stringent.
I suspect it's for the regions outside the 'core zones'. There the numbers are shooting up but not exploding as yet. But I find these new data a bit alarming... On the other hand, it's only 9 days since the lockdown started and, as @rcs1000 pointed out, it takes 10-14 days for new cases to peak. By definition thus we need to wait a little longer to see what's happening but was hoping to see some reduction in the rate of growth today.
Today's figures from Italy were very disappointing, I agree.
Why are the BBC wasting QT with putting on Andy Burnham and a chef.
Stick Hancock, Mr Yorkshire Tea and the egg-heads on and let the public ask them questions.
Andy Burnham is to be fair a good pick for Labour. A former SoS for Health plus since he became Mayor he's been much less of a party hack and has been speaking some sense during this. If he can avoid partisan digs he could have good insight. A large part of that will depend upon the BBC - the chosen questions that are chosen should be sensible ones not partisan ones looking for divisions.
"I suspect it's for the regions outside the 'core zones'. There the numbers are shooting up but not exploding as yet. But I find these new data a bit alarming... On the other hand, it's only 9 days since the lockdown started and, as @rcs1000 pointed out, it takes 10-14 days for new cases to peak. By definition thus we need to wait a little longer to see what's happening but was hoping to see some reduction in the rate of growth today."
Morbid as it is, what are the number of deaths in Italy today ?
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
We need random tests too - not just hospital patients and healthcare staff. A sample of say 5,000 random would provide valuable info.
Great when we have the capacity. At the minute though we aren't able to test everyone we need to whom is a healthcare worker, that surely has to come first?
If we are doing 25,000 a day, a one-off sample of 5,000 for a random test to inform strategy would be well worth it. But it's the serology test we are waiting for. We need to know who had it even if they no longer have the virus. Current tests only pick up live virus.
Concerning since London has a younger population than most places in England.
I suspect that a much larger % of London's population is infected than the rest of the country because Londoner's live, travel and work much closer together. So you should expect a larger proportion of cases and deaths.
Based on what I hear locally of sicknesses and self isolation as many as 10% - 20% could already have the infection compared with reported cases of 0.01% in London [936 out of a population of 9,000,000].
This makes an enormous difference to the fatality rate. Instead of 4% it could be 0.4% or even 0.04% - similar to seasonal flu. It could also explain the reduction of cases and deaths in China. They almost all already have it.
If this is the case, the cost of not having an adequate contingency plan for mass testing will be measured in trillions in terms of loss economic output around the world. This could all be a massive over reaction. On this basis I have started buying equities.
If it plays out as you describe what do you think fair value is given the damage we already have sustained and will sustain before we realise its an over reaction? 15-20% reduction so something like FTSE 6000-6250? (Assumption would be that your scenario is 100% to happen)
If @Barnesian is correct, then it raises the question of whether the current total lockdown is the best solution.
We don't know unless we test, test and test some more.
That's right. We also need a random serology test of the total population to find out what % have had it and what % were without symptoms. More valuable than your usual YouGov poll.
I've had the most minor cold symptons you can imagine, no idea if it's a cold, psychoschematic, pre-symptomatic COVID, asymptomatic COVID. I think it's a rinovirus my body can't be bothered to completely finish off as it's untroubled by it but you never know.
I had what seemed to be a heavy cold about a month ago - blocked sinuses (painful), very sore throat. It took about 2 weeks to clear, but is still lingering ever so slightly in the throat.
I'd travelled through France, and flown back from CdG airport.
Was that it? Never had a 'cold' like it, barely any runny nose stuff.
Sounds suspicious. Isn't the lack of a runny nose the big tell-tale sign?
Problem with any "tell-tale sign" at this stage, is that there isn't a unique identifier for COVID-19 and that infection is still rare, certainly was a couple of weeks back, in comparison to all the other lurgies doing the rounds. Indeed the vast majority of tests, which are currently largely being used on people who seem to have a high chance of having it, are still coming back negative. So while it's true that most people with COVID-19 have a dry cough (I think the Chinese data was only something like 5% had a runny nose?), it wouldn't necessarily be true that the majority of people with dry coughs have COVID-19. If/when COVID-19 becomes much more common, then that kind of "tell-tale" sign is more useful.
Worth reading this article which helps explain why how well a test works depends not just on the mechanics of the testing device but also the risk group you're testing - one of the reasons why "funneling" people through a sequence of diagnostic checks/tests is often useful. The positive predictive value of "my nose wasn't runny" works better later on in the epidemic for the same reason.
STOP PRESS: CMO just made the same point I think, when he explained that the tests he's talking about will work better later in the epidemic but didn't want to go into the reasons. Strongly recommend reading the link above.
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
We are doing, more than almost any other nation - and an increasing amount daily while trying to get more tests available.
We need random tests too - not just hospital patients and healthcare staff. A sample of say 5,000 random would provide valuable info.
Great when we have the capacity. At the minute though we aren't able to test everyone we need to whom is a healthcare worker, that surely has to come first?
If we are doing 25,000 a day, a one-off sample of 5,000 for a random test to inform strategy would be well worth it. But it's the serology test we are waiting for. We need to know who had it even if they no longer have the virus. Current tests only pick up live virus.
We aren't at 25k per day yet. We're currently at about 6k per day building to 10, then 25, then targetting 250k.
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
Target of 250k tests per day. That's an incredible amount if doable.
If that isn't a U-turn I don't know what is
It isn't a u-turn, they've been speaking about increasing testing capacity since this began.
Was that on the same day they told us not to phone 111 to notify the authorities that you have symptoms?
Yes.
The issue was that they had too many cases to be able to test them all, demand for testing had exceed the capacity to test but they were working on increasing capacity. If you can only do 3k per day [then, now up to 6k and growing] there's no point having say 30k call 111 demanding a test.
God he waffles and is difficult to understand I don’t think he has said anything yet
Today appears to be a holding operation.
No, I think he has been quite clever. Today was 'hope' day. The test is coming. We can beat this. Estimate of 12 weeks for the worst.
Personally, I certainly needed to hear something like that.
I get the feeling today is certainly one of the days when, if he was doing "as and when needed" briefings he wouldn't have bothered today, but if you commit to doing it daily, then you need to serve something up, and today it was time to serve up some hope and something-to-look-forward-to. And maybe the Queen to serve up a side-order of some resolution, duty and backbone. Quite a nice double-pronged message.
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
Agreed, but compared to 4 weeks ago there is virtually none.
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
Agreed, but compared to 4 weeks ago there is virtually none.
No, but if everyone in a community is using the same supermarket, you see how it can still spread.
Morbid as it is, what are the number of deaths in Italy today ?
427
Still not under control there.
Although, worth looking at the chart of cases against a logarithmic scale on Worldometer... Signs that the straight line is beginning curving shallower.
This situation looks impossible to call both in terms of the length of the economic impact and our public health.
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and on the economic and testing front ours hasn't done enough for the second possibility yet.
Without leaking what I have just been leaked I hear it will be an interesting one
Looks like you were leaked Fake News
Probably more twitter bollocks.
I'd heard the 12 weeks number. Some kind if normality by early summer. "if we all do as we're told". There's a load of crap on twitter about the Army on the streets of London - possible but even in Spain where they're fining T-Rex's people are still going to the shops.
Its the hope that with tests of new tests we might actually be able to sketch where normality comes back that was the interesting bit. At least for me who is already suffering cabin fever after 2 days WFH...
Another idiot in the media (paraphrasing) “will we have hit the peak in 12 weeks or is this all going to be resolved in 12 weeks?”
Hang on, let me check my crystal ball.
To be fair, it was asking Boris to clarify what he means by "we may have turned the tide in 12 weeks".
Does "turned the tide" mean we have got to the point where we can release these measures? Or does it mean "we're hitting the peak"?
Because one means "Back to normal in June." The other means "Could be back to normal in October" And if he's giving us a timescale, he should really say what he means by that timescale.
Comments
Also hearing the courts will shortly close down - not because of lack of judges but lack of security.
A friend from the Philippines told me about their tabo but the Japanese toilet was a far more appealing option, not least hygienically. Only thing is, and I'm sure I'm not alone in this putting me off, they look so complicated! How could I work out how to use the thing? Similarly, how to explain it to guests? I also didn't really like the idea of different people who use your bathroom all using that keypad! If I got one I think I'd end up becoming a paranoid user of antiseptic wipes. (Arguably illogical bearing in mind I don't have an equivalent fear of the flush handle, but a keypad used while on the loo just seems a bit "icky" for some reason. When I use someone else's loo I do occasionally take one sheet of loo roll and put that around the flush handle before depressing it, particularly if the cleanliness of the rest of the bathroom is looking questionable!)
[Soory I clicked on off-topic by mistake instead of quote]
https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-extends-offer-governments-and-health
From BBC website.
Earlier we reported that Bruno Bruins, the minister spearheading the Netherlands' response to the coronavirus outbreak, had collapsed from exhaustion during a debate in parliament on Dutch readiness for the pandemic. The sitting was immediately suspended.
A day later and the health minister has resigned. Mr Bruins tweeted on Wednesday night that he had fainted because of "exhaustion and intensive weeks" but planned to get back to work on Thursday.
The reason for his resignation is not yet clear. Another 18 people have died in the Netherlands in the past 24 hours, bringing to 76 the number of fatalities. All are aged 63 to 95.
Apparently all routine work has now stopped. If you develop something nasty then phone in and they will phone triage you. Of course, some of the people in the car park where there because no one answers the phone. One man decided after an hour on hold that it was quicker to walk across the road and ask
I'm just impatient.
The parish council is scratching its head over this. Any suggestions?
I'd travelled through France, and flown back from CdG airport.
Was that it? Never had a 'cold' like it, barely any runny nose stuff.
I don't mean to sound dim, but we knew next to nothing about the symptoms then, and I always get throat infections or the like when flying. I just chalked it up to the usual type of bug that's floating about in late winter.
Personally, I certainly needed to hear something like that.
ah, my coat.
Rigby appears to have asked same question as LauraK re mixing and more controls.
What do you want them to do, give you an exact hour when this will be solved?
The media demanded daily press conference, then they waste air on this shit.
Perhaps it is that people aren't sticking to it?
Let's not invent monstering beyond their actual conduct.
Oh god, poor Italy. This is horrific.
Easier said than done I'm sure but it'd make sense.
Stick Hancock, Mr Yorkshire Tea and the egg-heads on and let the public ask them questions.
vs 3300 road deaths in a year
Surely they could at least wait until the end of March to see if the Government can come up with a solution to help bridge the coming period?
Today's figures from Italy were very disappointing, I agree.
Morbid as it is, what are the number of deaths in Italy today ?
Worth reading this article which helps explain why how well a test works depends not just on the mechanics of the testing device but also the risk group you're testing - one of the reasons why "funneling" people through a sequence of diagnostic checks/tests is often useful. The positive predictive value of "my nose wasn't runny" works better later on in the epidemic for the same reason.
STOP PRESS: CMO just made the same point I think, when he explained that the tests he's talking about will work better later in the epidemic but didn't want to go into the reasons. Strongly recommend reading the link above.
https://twitter.com/marklowen/status/1240688659151519744
He is suggesting the chancellor will provide an answer tomorrow after todays meeting with the unions. Let's hope so
The issue was that they had too many cases to be able to test them all, demand for testing had exceed the capacity to test but they were working on increasing capacity. If you can only do 3k per day [then, now up to 6k and growing] there's no point having say 30k call 111 demanding a test.
Hang on, let me check my crystal ball.
Not the one that I would make.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Either the Italian and Spanish situations are European outliers, which are still not stabilised, or we're all on the road to these greater proportions of serious cases.
Governments have to plan for both eventualities, and on the economic and testing front ours hasn't done enough for the second possibility yet.
Its the hope that with tests of new tests we might actually be able to sketch where normality comes back that was the interesting bit. At least for me who is already suffering cabin fever after 2 days WFH...
Does "turned the tide" mean we have got to the point where we can release these measures? Or does it mean "we're hitting the peak"?
Because one means "Back to normal in June." The other means "Could be back to normal in October"
And if he's giving us a timescale, he should really say what he means by that timescale.