Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The rise and rise of Richi Sunak as seen on the Betfair exchan

1246789

Comments

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,015
    RobD said:

    They are also closed.
    Tea rooms too?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,397
    edited March 2020
    By the way, if anyone in Westminster is still reading PB you need to do something to ensure continuity of supply for people on pre-pay Gas and Electric meters. For a good number of the most vunerable people the risks around this are greater than the risks around rent.
  • We will be. But it takes a few days to do a full 180 degree turn. Schools will be closed very soon is my view.
    Sky just did a report from a school and the majority of parents backed the government
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    geoffw said:

    Tea rooms too?
    Haven't read about that, but suspect they won't be crammed full of people even if they are open.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,685
    Reflecting on last night's thread, I think a self-isolation / lockdown zone in London could be boundaried by one of the new congestion charge proposed expansions, for which data, modelling is already available.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,990

    The two main posters making such bragging rights were either deliberately trying to anger other posters or were otherwise insane
    I passed about eight or nine pubs/bars/restaurants on my home last night. All of them had customers - not many, but the amount you'd expect on a Tuesday night.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    nichomar said:

    Las cifras del coronavirus en España:
    - 13.500 positivos
    - 558 fallecidos
    - 774 casos graves en UCI
    - 5.717 hospitalizados
    - 1.081 curados

    Latest figures from Spain

    Given how serious the word is, we foreigners had better not mispronounce "fallecidos"!
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Sky just did a report from a school and the majority of parents backed the government
    That's called self-selection!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I passed about eight or nine pubs/bars/restaurants on my home last night. All of them had customers - not many, but the amount you'd expect on a Tuesday night.
    Some people will have good reason to be in them at the minute.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    eristdoof said:

    I always loved how in SE London (incl. Greater London) we used to call the local Greyhound Racing "Catford-Dogs"
    On a course in Ilford years ago I came across a poster for Barking Dogs Club.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    eristdoof said:

    Given how serious the word is, we foreigners had better not mispronounce "fallecidos"!
    We've tested more than the Spanish, and we think the true infection rate is at least 30x higher than reported. Applying the same correction gives half a million cases in Spain.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    Sky just did a report from a school and the majority of parents backed the government
    Presumably this conclusion coming from the zenith of good polling practice: a vox pop
  • That's called self-selection!
    It was a sample of opinion at that school
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,571
    Foss said:

    By the way, if anyone in Westminster is still reading PB you need to do something to ensure continuity of supply for people on pre-pay Gas and Electric meters. The for a good number of the most vunerable people the risks around this are greater than the risks around rent.

    Excellent point.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2020

    This domino effect is happening today, our IT support firm will close this Friday, its main customer was a pub chain. There will be thousands of such closures over the next few weeks. We could hit 5 million unemployed very quickly and 10 million by the end of the year. Millions of peoples lives will be destroyed by our response to Covid 19
    Incomes policy is an immediate priority, which Trump of all people is ahead on, as is rents. Starmer is right today that there are also major issues about local and national public services if the shutdown continues for any length of time. The government's spending response has started well but there's little time to lose.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/17/the-chancellors-stimulus-package-doesnt-go-nearly-far-enough
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    eristdoof said:



    Presumably this conclusion coming from the zenith of good polling practice: a vox pop

    SKY normally go out of their way to give air time to critics of the Government.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577

    On a course in Ilford years ago I came across a poster for Barking Dogs Club.
    Basenjis need not apply.....
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,397
    edited March 2020

    Excellent point.
    TBH, I was hoping that someone might pick it up as a wildcard question for PMQs (a long shot, I know).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    We've tested more than the Spanish, and we think the true infection rate is at least 30x higher than reported. Applying the same correction gives half a million cases in Spain.
    If the number of cases is 30x the number reported then wouldn't that make the death rate below 0.1% instead of 2.5%?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    £330bn is a peashooter?

    More will need to be done and he has said it, but he's using a bazooka - the issue is we need an array of bazookas.
    £20bn is a peashooter.
    The £330bn is simply loans - allowing companies to bring their own money forwards in time and spend it all right now. Meaning they'll have that much less of their own money afterwards.

    Sensible enough if this is all going to blow over in a few weeks. Not so much if this is going to last several months/over a year/ 18 months-plus as per Government statements.
    If a company has, say, a 4% profit margin and has to cover, say, 60% of its outgoings (minimal stock, but still wages, rent, and existing debt servicing) for eighteen months, how many years of its future profits will it have spent in just surviving?

    (Answer: 27 years. So it will be a viable and profitable concern again by the year 2050, which is nice).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,685
    edited March 2020
    IanB2 said:

    The US figure in this data is 'tests' not people, and they are doing two or three tests per person. I don't know about the rest?
    That data is a week old.

    The NHS number I last saw was about 45k, and that is a couple of days old iirc. They can run at 4k a day give or take.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    £20bn is a peashooter.
    The £330bn is simply loans - allowing companies to bring their own money forwards in time and spend it all right now. Meaning they'll have that much less of their own money afterwards.

    Sensible enough if this is all going to blow over in a few weeks. Not so much if this is going to last several months/over a year/ 18 months-plus as per Government statements.
    If a company has, say, a 4% profit margin and has to cover, say, 60% of its outgoings (minimal stock, but still wages, rent, and existing debt servicing) for eighteen months, how many years of its future profits will it have spent in just surviving?

    (Answer: 27 years. So it will be a viable and profitable concern again by the year 2050, which is nice).
    I'd be surprised if the majority of those loans were repaid.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,608

    There are other health risks apart from Covid-19. I'd get it seen to now.
    Yup. You really don’t want septicemia from an infected tooth. Get it sorted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    MattW said:

    Reflecting on last night's thread, I think a self-isolation / lockdown zone in London could be boundaried by one of the new congestion charge proposed expansions, for which data, modelling is already available.

    Would give a means of enforcement - you get an automatic fine if your vehicle passes the monitors, only rescinded if you have filled out the paperwork in advance on the net.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Here's an idea, we complete this season in the summer or autumn.

    Next season, to save on fixtures:

    • No League Cup (who would even notice)
    • Teams play each other only ONCE in the league – names out of a hat for home/away, equal numbers of home and away games, seed it so you don't get unfair fixtures like Liverpool's games against City, Spurs, Chelsea, Utd etc all being at home.

    Alternatively just finish this season off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    It was a sample of opinion at that school
    It's not important but it's the sample of opinion who show up to that school. Not the sample of opinion of the school. Those who show up to school are more likely to agree with the government. Do you get it? It's a revealed preference.
  • £1 now less than $1.19. That is surely a new post-1985 low.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    eristdoof said:

    May be his best innings were, but most of his innings were turgid.
    You need to understand TEST cricket first before making such pronouncements.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    To continue my thought below about if season can't be completed I'd follow through the lower leagues with the "promote the top clubs but no relegation" plan too if the season can't be completed. And for the CL spots too.

    For clubs currently outside the top who were hoping to get to the top (or those hoping to get into CL) its harsh but they can try again next season. However relegating a club that could have climbed out of the relegation zone is much worse fairer just not relegate anyone - even if that gives an undeserved mulligan to clubs like Norwich, or Bolton etc

    Depending on how we come out of this there may be a 50% chance of another 2-3 month closure in the winter. Adding more teams doesnt really work, unless they provision for each time playing each other just once as a back up plan for next season.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,571
    edited March 2020
    What I said yesterday on here. A lurker? :smile:

    https://twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1240202673128976384
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Incomes policy is an immediate priority, which Trump of all people is ahead on, as is rents. Starmer is right today that there are also major issues about local and national public services if this shutdown continues for any length of time. The government's spending response has started well but there's little time to lose.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/17/the-chancellors-stimulus-package-doesnt-go-nearly-far-enough
    It's more than that surely. Otherwise viable businesses are closing and need to be kept going.

    How about Government pays all salaries (for every company's payroll as at 1st March) for the next year; in return corporate profits taxed at 100%, again for next year. No one allowed to be dismissed during the coming year?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    DavidL said:

    He was excellent yesterday, even better than he was at the budget. I agree that his confidence is increasing. He is articulate and quick but also measured.

    Tory fanboys gonna fanboy I guess.

    He always seems like a right shyster to me, but that is pretty much all current Tories in this vile incarnation of the party. Not that I would ever be a fan, but at least there used to be the odd tolerable intellectual.

    Mind you, I never understood the Ruth Davidson wankfest either. She always sent my shyster needle off the chart.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    Mango said:

    Tory fanboys gonna fanboy I guess.

    He always seems like a right shyster to me, but that is pretty much all current Tories in this vile incarnation of the party. Not that I would ever be a fan, but at least there used to be the odd tolerable intellectual.

    Mind you, I never understood the Ruth Davidson wankfest either. She always sent my shyster needle off the chart.
    I'll put you down as a maybe....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    Scott_xP said:

    A couple of our vendors use Zoom, and my experience of it has been reliable.

    Our corporate system is Skype, which works OK for people on the system, but outside users have issues.

    We had a Webex call with a vendor yesterday, which we had to move to Zoom half way through.

    The future of Skype is meant to be Teams. We haven't tested it on a large scale yet.
    Many thanks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    eristdoof said:

    Given how serious the word is, we foreigners had better not mispronounce "fallecidos"!
    What a way to go though.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Isam, I'm not a doctor but I'd go see your dentist, as you have a genuine need.

    If it were a check-up I'd suggest not going.
  • RobD said:

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    kamski said:

    Personal experience of contact tracing:
    My son suddenly had a fever 39.6 on Saturday. On Sunday we got an email from his kindergarten (already closed, but my son was there recently) saying a parent of one of the children had tested positive. My wife phoned the kindergarten leader to get more info - apart from anything else she is an emergency dept doctor and wanted to find out if she might be infected before going to work. Apparently, the local health Amt didn't test the child because s/he had no symptoms, so weren't testing anyone at the kindergarten because nobody had come in contact with a confirmed infection. She then tried to get through to the Cologne number to try and get us tested, but gave up after an hour.

    So she got herself tested at her hospital, and took a swab to test our son there too. Both came back negative.

    Yesterday we heard from the kindergarten that one of the teachers tested positive. I was expecting the local health people to get in touch, as our son is certainly a contact, but we've heard nothing.

    I'm wondering if they've given up. Which would be stupid and depressing.
    I'm glad your wife and son came back negative.

    Somehow I don't belive the lack of tracing and testing is because they don't want to, but are "fire fighting" - dealing with the cases where people are ill. It is also more anecdotal evidence against the idea that Germany are testing many many more young people, causing the low reported case/death rate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2020
    Guido being massive irresponsible again. When will they all learn, this is not a game, it is not about who gets the scoop first. This is about what is best for the nation.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,015

    £1 now less than $1.19. That is surely a new post-1985 low.

    Could be a good thing. Perhaps Bailey of the BoE has engineered it down.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    It's more than that surely. Otherwise viable businesses are closing and need to be kept going.

    How about Government pays all salaries (for every company's payroll as at 1st March) for the next year; in return corporate profits taxed at 100%, again for next year. No one allowed to be dismissed during the coming year?
    My objection to that is the big execs getting paid millions by the state for doing nothing. Helicopter money to everyone of either median wage or full time min wage, but give companies or employees the right to temporarily suspend employment. Those who are still working like NHS staff and essential services get paid twice my way as well, which is only fair.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Mango said:

    Tory fanboys gonna fanboy I guess.

    He always seems like a right shyster to me, but that is pretty much all current Tories in this vile incarnation of the party. Not that I would ever be a fan, but at least there used to be the odd tolerable intellectual.

    Mind you, I never understood the Ruth Davidson wankfest either. She always sent my shyster needle off the chart.
    You hardly sound like a neutral observer yourself. Whereas David, can be never be described as a fanboy.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2020

    It's more than that surely. Otherwise viable businesses are closing and need to be kept going.

    How about Government pays all salaries (for every company's payroll as at 1st March) for the next year; in return corporate profits taxed at 100%, again for next year. No one allowed to be dismissed during the coming year?
    I'd be see surprised to see the Tories going for that level of intervention via tax, although that's nearer to what the French seem to be doing. Whatever the policy on loan or grant-linked salaries, rents and incomes is going to be, though, it needs to be radical and it has to come soon.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Why is the £ falling?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Guido being massive irresponsible again. When will they all learn, this is not a game, it is not about who gets the scoop first. This is about what is best for the nation.

    The whole press/media need to take a long look at themselves before they do something very stupid and, perhaps with good reason, the government take appropriate action.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Some people will have good reason to be in them at the minute.
    There may be people of 65 who feel they've had enough of this world and are prepared to depart it. But I'm 66 and I want another 20-30 years ... please. I'm guessing that there are more religious people in the first group. I'm an atheist and on balance I consider that death is the end, apart from some medical students hopefully making use of my body.

    OTOH I don't object to a couple I know in their 90s continuing to socialise. They think that that they've had a long and mostly good life but now feel pretty decrepit. Being isolated from their children would be miserable.

    The other two people I know in their 90s are fit as a fiddle and are both determined to hang around for another 5-10 years. They've self-isolated.

    So it's very hard to generalise and use 70 as a cut-off point.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197

    £1 now less than $1.19. That is surely a new post-1985 low.

    Sterling has taken a bit of a hammering over the last couple of weeks. Not sure why. We don't obviously have a worse position than anyone else. Indeed our services based economy should be more resilient than average.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    One reason is because so many people have such mild symptoms they don't even know AND it takes several days for symptoms to appear after infection.

    I posted a good video the other day about what 1 death actually means in terms of current numbers of infected.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk&t=1s
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited March 2020
    On topic?
    Based on what little I’ve seen and heard, Rishi is very talented. It’s been a very long time since we had someone with his competence at a senior level in the govt.

    But he needs to sort out rents, and those already being laid off / those for whom casual work has dried up.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Guido being massive irresponsible again. When will they all learn, this is not a game, it is not about who gets the scoop first. This is about what is best for the nation.

    This pandemic has woken me up to the fact that Guido is a ****.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,336

    Why is the £ falling?

    Coz Sunek has a low BMI.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    My objection to that is the big execs getting paid millions by the state for doing nothing. Helicopter money to everyone of either median wage or full time min wage, but give companies or employees the right to temporarily suspend employment. Those who are still working like NHS staff and essential services get paid twice my way as well, which is only fair.
    Yes fair enough. There would certainly need to be a cap on the govt salary commitment - I hadn't thought of that.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092


    There may be people of 65 who feel they've had enough of this world and are prepared to depart it. But I'm 66 and I want another 20-30 years ... please. I'm guessing that there are more religious people in the first group. I'm an atheist and on balance I consider that death is the end, apart from some medical students hopefully making use of my body.

    OTOH I don't object to a couple I know in their 90s continuing to socialise. They think that that they've had a long and mostly good life but now feel pretty decrepit. Being isolated from their children would be miserable.

    The other two people I know in their 90s are fit as a fiddle and are both determined to hang around for another 5-10 years. They've self-isolated.

    So it's very hard to generalise and use 70 as a cut-off point.

    Anyone of any age deciding that they don't care about spreading the virus and using up NHS resources is profoundly selfish.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    As a Spurs fan, I am absolutely loving there being no football. I will miss the cricket, though.


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    This pandemic has woken me up to the fact that Guido is a ****.
    What, you needed a pandemic to realise this?
    He is pond scum.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2020

    There may be people of 65 who feel they've had enough of this world and are prepared to depart it. But I'm 66 and I want another 20-30 years ... please. I'm guessing that there are more religious people in the first group. I'm an atheist and on balance I consider that death is the end, apart from some medical students hopefully making use of my body.

    OTOH I don't object to a couple I know in their 90s continuing to socialise. They think that that they've had a long and mostly good life but now feel pretty decrepit. Being isolated from their children would be miserable.

    The other two people I know in their 90s are fit as a fiddle and are both determined to hang around for another 5-10 years. They've self-isolated.

    So it's very hard to generalise and use 70 as a cut-off point.
    The point is, it doesn't matter what individuals desire. Even if somebody in their 60s wants to go, they are going to crash the system, because they will still need to be scooped up and they could well infect other people.

    This is situation isn't like the pros / cons of being able to kill ones self, where the strain on the system would be minimal.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    If the number of cases is 30x the number reported then wouldn't that make the death rate below 0.1% instead of 2.5%?
    People take time to die.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    What ideas is master blue-sky thinker Dom Cummings coming up with to reslove this, I wonder?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539
    edited March 2020

    Why is the £ falling?

    The Chancellor said "whatever it takes" a number of times. Perhaps the markets think there will be more resistance to money printing in the Eurozone and US.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228
    Very OT: Something to distract you for a few minutes
    https://twitter.com/Cmdr_Hadfield/status/1240243302236073985?s=20
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    DavidL said:

    Sterling has taken a bit of a hammering over the last couple of weeks. Not sure why. We don't obviously have a worse position than anyone else. Indeed our services based economy should be more resilient than average.
    Or less resilient? Services more likely to need f2f contact; more likely to relate to discretionary (ie consumer) spending?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,015
    edited March 2020

    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    That means 200k tested positive - it omits all those infected who have not been tested, largely because they do not have symptoms and so do not present at the medical facilities where testing takes place, i.e. the submerged iceberg.

    edit p.s. it is Johns Hopkins
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    What, you needed a pandemic to realise this?
    He is pond scum.
    Everyone has their own blindspots and/or guilty pleasures. He was one of mine I suppose.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    So you have to have a beard and a shelve of tattoos to use it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    Going to be a very weird PMQs, with only a handful of MPs dotted around the chamber.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    What ideas is master blue-sky thinker Dom Cummings coming up with to reslove this, I wonder?

    "Whatever it takes" had Big Doms fingerprints all over it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    This pandemic has woken me up to the fact that Guido is a ****.
    He is far from the only one. F##king Peston yesterday wasting air with a stupid jibe question about Boris' dad saying he is still going to the pub.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    The person I spent most of last weekend with now has a persistent cough and this morning told me she has a temperature.

    Self isolation should be fun right?

    PB on a big monitor instead of a phone screen?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited March 2020

    I passed about eight or nine pubs/bars/restaurants on my home last night. All of them had customers - not many, but the amount you'd expect on a Tuesday night.
    If pubs only have 8-9 people in them, I think the advice is working. If they are closed, landlords would have ‘friends’ in for a lock in anyway
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    You need to understand TEST cricket first before making such pronouncements.
    Oh I understand Test cricket very well. I did not mean that his innings were inappropriate, but they were very low risk and slow scoring. I also think that too few batsmen in recent years are proper test batsmen. You do not have to be an opener or a slow scoring batsman to be a good Test batsman, you do need to adapt to the game situation. Taylor, Ponting Lara and Tendulkar are all excellent examples.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,766
    edited March 2020
    DavidL said:

    Sterling has taken a bit of a hammering over the last couple of weeks. Not sure why. We don't obviously have a worse position than anyone else. Indeed our services based economy should be more resilient than average.
    (hard) brexit, threat thereof?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    "Whatever it takes" had Big Doms fingerprints all over it.
    If so, for once I agree with him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    Going to be a very weird PMQs, with only a handful of MPs dotted around the chamber.....

    I presume Jezza is still going to ignore government advice and keep coming into work.
  • I'd be see surprised to see the Tories going for that level of intervention via tax, although that's nearer to what the French seem to be doing. Whatever the policy on loan or grant-linked salaries, rents and incomes is going to be, though, it needs to be radical and it has to come soon.
    I believed the government would cling to last week's budget as recently as yesterday afternoon. I was wrong - they get it. They need to go a lot further and I have confidence that they will get there as they said "we will need to go further" and said give us a couple of days.

    This is now a wartime economy. We can keep people working and businesses solvent - and have an economy when we get through this. Or we can let companies fold and people go hungry and not have a society when we get through this. So many of the people who need direct injections of Treasury cash are Tory voters. Would be an odd thing if Johnson hung them out to dry...
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    "Whatever it takes" had Big Doms fingerprints all over it.
    To be fair, it was also Mario Draghi's catchphrase following the GFC, and was quite effective.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2020

    If so, for once I agree with him.
    They need to deploy his skills for other messaging. The government really need a 5 point "pledge card" type thing that every single minister just repeats at every occasion. They did well on the hand washing, but now the public need to be educated to do a lot more and fast.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    JM1 said:

    They are using more than the Imperial model - I know (first-hand) of colleagues in other Universities who are participating in this.
    That's good to hear. Reassuring.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I presume Jezza is still going to ignore government advice and keep coming into work.
    To be fair I'd back Jezza there. He's not retired, he's working and not going to the pub.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    "Whatever it takes" had Big Doms fingerprints all over it.
    But it is not new. Von der Leyen used it before Johnson in the corona crisis, and it was widely used by someone in the EU/ECB during the Euro-Crisis.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2020

    To be fair I'd back Jezza there. He's not retired, he's working and not going to the pub.
    He's over 70. If he gets it, the chances of him requiring hospitalization are high and if so given his age, an ICU bed. He is putting others at risk.

    And it is clear that within the Westminster cliche it is definitely circulating.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197

    I believed the government would cling to last week's budget as recently as yesterday afternoon. I was wrong - they get it. They need to go a lot further and I have confidence that they will get there as they said "we will need to go further" and said give us a couple of days.

    This is now a wartime economy. We can keep people working and businesses solvent - and have an economy when we get through this. Or we can let companies fold and people go hungry and not have a society when we get through this. So many of the people who need direct injections of Treasury cash are Tory voters. Would be an odd thing if Johnson hung them out to dry...
    The key is wages for those unable to work either because of the virus or because their employer is not able to trade. This covers both the employed and the self employed. Sunak needs to find a way to keep cash flowing to the workers or even those businesses which can trade will implode. Today's announcements are going to be even more important than yesterday's and it is not going to be easy to get it right.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited March 2020
    I have decided to be positive today.
    (EasyJet by the way, are acting on a biz assumption that they will back at 50% service levels in May).

    I think there is an iceberg effect, which tests haven’t been picking up.
    Therefore, real infections are much higher.
    But real emergency cases are much lower, as a %.

    I also think the virus is more susceptible to strong but not disruptive social distancing / isolation measures than Imperial’s model suggests.

    I also think we’ll find at least a partly effective vaccine in 2020.

    None of this means that ICUs will not be overloaded, it is too late to avoid that. However it does mean that “lock down”, when it comes, would be many weeks, not many months.

    Although we may be be battling this “for two years”, perhaps 18 months of that will be relatively unobtrusive, with new measures around, say, temperature checks to access certain buildings, continuation of current advice to quarantine in case of symptoms for 7-14 days etc.

    The above is all assumption, and maybe hopelessly optimistic, but cannot I think he disproven by the evidence on the table today.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,015

    (hard) brexit, threat thereof?
    Sotto voce!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    eristdoof said:

    But it is not new. Von der Leyen used it before Johnson in the corona crisis, and it was widely used by someone in the EU/ECB during the Euro-Crisis.
    Good artists borrow. Great artists steal.

    I don’t think it really matters who said it first if it’s the right thing to say.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    edited March 2020
    I agree that the media, in part, at least, have been irresponsible. It's wretched. However, the response could be worse than the problem if it means free speech being cut down.

    Ideally, we'd have journalists who aren't cretins.

    Edited extra bit: last bit may sound a bit harsh. I don't want to tar them all with the same brush, but at least some of them have not been intelligent, and have not been responsible. That's unprofessional at any time, but dangerous at times like this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    But it is not new. Von der Leyen used it before Johnson in the corona crisis, and it was widely used by someone in the EU/ECB during the Euro-Crisis.
    Not saying it was, but had the Big Dom fingerprints of him screaming at ministers "f##king use it, again and again and again".
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    We are starting to get numbers in the population now where general population surveys might start to give us an idea of prevalence.

    So would £50,000 to £100,000 on a population survey not represent a good use of resources at this point?

    If we can spend that much asking people whether they like Jeremy Corbyn's beard or not shouldn't we also start thinking creatively to get some useful data?

    Hope someone is thinking of it..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,826

    Why is the £ falling?

    Fear of colossal money printing and roaring inflation in a country that is quite small and now on its own?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    He's over 70. If he gets it, the chances of him requiring hospitalization are high and if so given his age, an ICU bed. He is putting others at risk.

    And it is clear that within the Westminster cliche it is definitely circulating.
    You have to remember that he voluntarily self-isolated from reality a long time ago...
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    RobD said:

    The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.
    Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    He is far from the only one. F##king Peston yesterday wasting air with a stupid jibe question about Boris' dad saying he is still going to the pub.
    To be fair, Stanley Johnson came across as a prat of the first order. You could see why his son has turned out like he has.
  • I have decided to be positive today.
    (EasyJet by the way, are acting on a biz assumption that they will back at 50% service levels in May).

    I think there is an iceberg effect, which tests haven’t been picking up.
    Therefore, real infections are much higher.
    But real emergency cases are much lower, as a %.

    I also think the virus is more susceptible to strong but not disruptive social distancing / isolation measures than Imperial’s model suggests.

    I also think we’ll find at least a partly effective vaccine in 2020.

    None of this means that ICUs will not be overloaded, it is too late to avoid that. However it does mean that “lock down”, when it comes, would be many weeks, not many months.

    Although we may be be battling this “for two years”, perhaps 18 months of that will be relatively unobtrusive, with new measures around, say, temperature checks to access certain buildings, continuation of current advice to quarantine in case of symptoms for 7-14 days etc.

    The above is all assumption, and maybe hopelessly optimistic, but cannot I think he disproven by the evidence on the table today.

    Fingers crossed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Maybe I can't count, but that looks like a lot more than 15 MPs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    kinabalu said:

    Fear of colossal money printing and roaring inflation in a country that is quite small and now on its own?
    But it should be relative. Would you rather be Italy, Spain, France, USA or UK now?
This discussion has been closed.