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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The rise and rise of Richi Sunak as seen on the Betfair exchan
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The rise and rise of Richi Sunak as seen on the Betfair exchange
What is really incredible about the Richi Sunak is that barely anybody had heard of him just 6 months ago. Now he is barely off the front pages, one of the key faces of the Johnson government and miles ahead of anybody else in the betting for Johnson’s successor as Conservative leader.
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Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s taoiseach, has won praise for a national address on Tuesday night that made grim predictions and called for sacrifice, responsibility and solidarity, writes Rory Carroll.
In a rare interruption to television schedules, the premier appeared on screens at 9pm in a sombre and at times emotional speech that struck Churchillian notes in saying many will die and the economy will reel in coming weeks and months.
“This is the calm before the storm, before the surge. And when it comes, and it will come, never will so many ask so much of so few.”
What would be genuinely helpful is for these retailers to sort out the mess and breakdown of their deliveries system? The strong way to ration items and share around would be online delivery?
He reminds me of Tony Blair
Which makes it frighteningly credible, or at least less incredible than one would like.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china
Self isolation should be fun right?
It's £20-£30K most of the time but not all. End of life it is 50K per year.
But the crucial bit is it is £20-30K PER YEAR. How many years shortfall will these people have missed out upon? For some not many (they are old and have multimorbidity etc). For many others it could be a LOT. Your doctors and nurses who are in their prime will lose a lot of QALYs (10+). Multiply that by 30K or 50K and we are talking serious numbers. Average all that out and it will probably be close to this package in monetary terms, although I haven't bothered to crunch the numbers.
However, that is the health effect that we are trying to counter-act. What none of the models currently are doing is calculating the general equilibrium problem and the feedback loops coming from an economy in recession/depression. That's because these are infectious disease modellers not macroeconomic modellers. They are working in silo with epidemiology data. When the government gets round the macro consequences they will realise they have offered economic policies which are basically a peashooter when we need a bazooker.
We need a radical plan, something like a free (but low) universal income combined with free utilities and a substantial (for the whole lockdown period) mortgage holiday.
Also, self policing. One sees a lot of cobblers about calling the troops in to supermarkets but the displeasure of people back in the queue if you start trying to persuade the cashier that 6 is the new 3 is flung to sort most people out.
I took the kids out of school last week, so we should be ok.
Plus my father's a retired doctor, is useful to be living under the same roof as a doctor.
But my hatred of Trump - and I mean the H word here - is such that I struggle for perspective when it comes to the prospect of him getting 4 more years.
Still, don't get me wrong, I'm not changing my call. He's toast. I'm just not quite as confident right now as I have been for so long.
I can imagine supermarkets are going to need to pool resources and perhaps some might need to close. Security might not stretch to multiple shops and without security, our lovable scrotes will just come in and mass steal.
The number of people reporting anecdotes like this suggests that there are far more people infected than the official numbers report.
If I get put on lockdown I'm going to try to spend as much time as possible walking the hills (if I'm healthy, of course).
So far with us, situation is still normal. Kids in school, wife and me in work, shops pretty normal. Things are starting to close though, like the local boys and girls club and Ramp World and sports centres. When the kids get sent home it will be tough to keep them entertained.
Sir Keir Starmer assuming he is elected the new Labour leader will clearly hope to be Cameron not Kinnock, though of course we should remember even Cameron was only able to form a government in coalition with the LDs, the 2010 general election producing a hung parliament and not a Conservative majority despite the fact the Tories gained 96 seats
I suspect he will join the John Moore society of future prime ministers.
You know what our media is like. Ed Miliband was skewered for looking like a nerd. The cartoons will have fun with Sunak for being small.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-varadkar-addresses-nation-and-says-crisis-may-last-months-1.4205373
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/there-is-a-policy-of-surrender-doctor-on-uks-covid-19-failures?__twitter_impression=true
There's a limit to how many people can be tested and have those tests processed at once. Testing NHS employees is a priority but until more testing can be done its not just a case of saying "test everyone" and then its done.
Oh my laptop.
Is bizarre facetiming with the family who are elsewhere in the house.
A large proportion of the population must be immune to Covid-19
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180
It's not like there is anything increasing death's dark shadow at the moment .......
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1240179104378478593
Where I am, higher ups are trying to make everyone work from home but are also finding that while people are fine with that, the ideas of, say, check-in phone calls and massive online meetings are going down like a turd in a jacuzzi.
Source https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus