We need to block anyone entering the country who have been to Italy or Iran.
Iran’s the total sh!t-show here, even more so than China. They have no way to contain the virus, and millions of people have been through there in the last couple of months.
I think the Hajj will be postponed which hasn’t happened in over a Millennium, something Muslims won’t take as a sign or the Saudis ban Iranians from the Hajj which will do wonders for Saudi/Iranian relations.
I think we might see Iranians banned from the Umrah, which again will be great for Saudi/Iranian relations.
Middle East travel is about to be severely curtailed everywhere.
No, they’re “expecting” all the staff to take two days a month off, unpaid, so the airline can save 10% from the payroll and prevent redundancies. Demand has unsurprisingly fallen off a cliff for air travel in the Middle East.
As I've mentioned before, the web page design is quite spectacularly bad, a textbook example of what goes wrong when you let some geek get over-excited about interactive web pages. You have to hover the mouse over random and counter-intuitive bits of the page to actually find the data it's meant to be presenting, so for convenience I've summarised it here (central forecast percentage vote share and number of delegates):
If those forecasts are anything like right, Biden is doing better than I would have expected under the rules of the contest. I'm surprised he'd get that number of delegates, a respectable second behind Bernie .
Lord only knows why Klobuchar thinks it's worth persevering, and it looks like the end of the road for Bloomberg given how much advertising he's done here. Elizabeth Warren might well be able to keep going in the hope that something turns up.
RealClear polling Av for California is as follows.
Bloomberg's numbers look err Steyeresque in the state but I think his early voting nos could well make him viable. Biden has the opposite problem though there is some evidence moderates have held back their votes this time round to see who was most viable to stop Sanders of the 3 Bs.
Buttigieg supporters are remarkably evenly split between the candidates though I'd expect Biden and Sanders to grab more with their frontrunner status. Steyer supporters are probably more Biden friendly.
Not to go all parochial on you, but I'd be much more interested in what percentage of the European population the global experts think will be infected.
Why? Are Europeans so genetically different?? Italy says not. In fact Italy has a higher death rate than Korea, Japan, etc
No, I mean given that Europe isn't the epicentre of the outbreak and is full of fancy public healthcare systems and advanced bureaucracies. That out to be worth something in reducing the percentage infected.
Yes, that's true (tho I wonder whether Italy has an advance bureaucracy compared to East Asian nations).
Sadly, there are countervailing factors: we have more elderly, more obesity (esp in the UK), we are less able or willing to impose draconian quarantines, welding people into their homes and so on.
Maybe it's a wash. We'll get it about the same as Asia.
The positive spin: While no one really trusts China’s numbers, Singapore seems to have stabilised at 2-3 new cases per day. It’s been here long enough that one suspects there aren’t super high amounts of undetected walking about at the moment or you’d be seeing the sharp end of the cases in the clinics.
Entirely unscientifically, adjust such numbers to the UK’s population size. And that would imply a steady state number of new positive cases of 30 odd per day in the UK, once the initial scary phase is over. 200 odd per week, of which perhaps 20-50 need hospital and a small handful succumb.
The gloomy spin: third countries are causing new undetected hotspots in places that did have it under control. It’s now out “there” everywhere and contact tracing will seem like a quaint practice in a matter of weeks.
I flip between these two moods as often as bipolar transsexual alcoholic thriller writers change their identity.
Say we get lucky and 50% of people catch it (rather than the 70 or 80 that seems possible).
66 million in uk.
33 million catch it.
4% is 1,320,000.
If that is over 12 months, then ≈ 25K a week needing hospital.
50% of the UK catching does not seem 'lucky', given only 0.11% (yep, 1 in a 900) of the population of Hubei are confirmed as having caught it.
Well Wuhan would be a better population to use rather than Hubei, and implicit in your 0.11% is that everyone has been tested which of course is nonsense.
But I do agree with you that people predicting 50% in the UK at the end of 2021 even or the whole world sometime in May are way way off the mark. The spread of infections just does not work like that.
But those predictions are made by the global experts, who study this shit for a living
I'd like to think, like you, that they are lying, or mad, or locked in groupthink, but where is your evidence for this?
Not to go all parochial on you, but I'd be much more interested in what percentage of the European population the global experts think will be infected.
Why? Are Europeans so genetically different?? Italy says not. In fact Italy has a higher death rate than Korea, Japan, etc
.
Indeed. One would reasonably expect very different percentages across different continents.
As it stands I would expect the UK to have one of the lowest rates in the world, while Africa could have a horrendous rate. Similar to HIV/AIDS which is under control [relatively] in this country but stil a pandemic in Africa.
You thinryone else.
Better handwashing Better hygiene Better tracking and tracing Better self-isolation Better awareness Better communication Better home life Better nourished
Than most of the world.
I hope you are right, and I hope that in about a month you can all turn on me and throw the rotten turnips of mockery.
I may be forced to adopt a new PB identity, something I had hitherto never considered.
Avoid door knobs, stop shaking hands and use a pen to catch a lift: The physical steps you can take to stop yourself from catching coronavirus
As I've mentioned before, the web page design is quite spectacularly bad, a textbook example of what goes wrong when you let some geek get over-excited about interactive web pages. You have to hover the mouse over random and counter-intuitive bits of the page to actually find the data it's meant to be presenting, so for convenience I've summarised it here (central forecast percentage vote share and number of delegates):
If those forecasts are anything like right, Biden is doing better than I would have expected under the rules of the contest. I'm surprised he'd get that number of delegates, a respectable second behind Bernie .
Lord only knows why Klobuchar thinks it's worth persevering, and it looks like the end of the road for Bloomberg given how much advertising he's done here. Elizabeth Warren might well be able to keep going in the hope that something turns up.
RealClear polling Av for California is as follows.
Bloomberg's numbers look err Steyeresque in the state but I think his early voting nos could well make him viable. Biden has the opposite problem though there is some evidence moderates have held back their votes this time round to see who was most viable to stop Sanders of the 3 Bs.
Buttigieg supporters are remarkably evenly split between the candidates though I'd expect Biden and Sanders to grab more with their frontrunner status. Steyer supporters are probably more Biden friendly.
Not to go all parochial on you, but I'd be much more interested in what percentage of the European population the global experts think will be infected.
Why? Are Europeans so genetically different?? Italy says not. In fact Italy has a higher death rate than Korea, Japan, etc
No, I meing the percentage infected.
Yes, the same as Asia.
The positive spin: While no one really trusts China’s numbers, Singapore seems to have stabilised at 2-3 new cases per day. It’s been here long enough that one suspects there aren’t super high amounts of undetected walking about at the moment or you’d be seeing the sharp end of the cases in the clinics.
I flip between these two moods as often as bipolar transsexual alcoholic thriller writers change their identity.
Singapore is definitely a cause for modest optimism, in context.
Has every case in S'pore been traced to its origin? Is there any evidence of community transmission with no foreign travel?
"Lorraine Kelly has revealed that her daughter Rosie, 24, has 'self-isolated' after falling ill in Singapore amid fears about the spread of coronavirus.
The ITV host explained on her daytime show that despite her daughter just having a 'bit of a cold', her husband Steve Smith is jetting to Asia to be with her.
Speaking on Monday's episode, the 60-year-old presenter revealed that her husband had told her that Heathrow airport is 'dead' as travel to certain countries has been discouraged amid the spread of the disease."
As I've mentioned before, the web page design is quite spectacularly bad, a textbook example of what goes wrong when you let some geek get over-excited about interactive web pages. You have to hover the mouse over random and counter-intuitive bits of the page to actually find the data it's meant to be presenting, so for convenience I've summarised it here (central forecast percentage vote share and number of delegates):
If those forecasts are anything like right, Biden is doing better than I would have expected under the rules of the contest. I'm surprised he'd get that number of delegates, a respectable second behind Bernie .
Lord only knows why Klobuchar thinks it's worth persevering, and it looks like the end of the road for Bloomberg given how much advertising he's done here. Elizabeth Warren might well be able to keep going in the hope that something turns up.
RealClear polling Av for California is as follows.
Bloomberg's numbers look err Steyeresque in the state but I think his early voting nos could well make him viable. Biden has the opposite problem though there is some evidence moderates have held back their votes this time round to see who was most viable to stop Sanders of the 3 Bs.
Buttigieg supporters are remarkably evenly split between the candidates though I'd expect Biden and Sanders to grab more with their frontrunner status. Steyer supporters are probably more Biden friendly.
On the upside, not many Iranians will now be flying out, the poor bastards.
Let's hope we don't end up with those kinds of scenes here.
This is my prediction:
Large scale passive panic* - Yes Widespread disruption - Yes Massive hit to the global economy - Yes Stock market crash - Yes Health care services swamped - Yes >1% overall death rate - No
(By passive panic, I mean people declining to go on holiday, attend events, commute, make non-essential purchases; rather than riots in the streets)
Greetings from Coronavirus Overreaction Central (aka London).
Various offices have apparently now shut down completely due to actual or potential outbreaks. Several firms are cancelling all external meetings, and/or converting to teleconferences where possible. We are going ahead, but asking participants to confirm they haven't travelled to an at-risk area.
Some firms still taking no precautions at all. There are some weird social dances going on where meetings take place at one of these, and we have to figure out if we can go or not.
In related news, the bit of the London insurance market that covers Contingency risks is starting to get really worried about the Olympics.
In unrelated news, I'm really disappointed that Scott_P hasn't come back as Scott_NP. There's a million dollars on the table if we figure this out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem
I have discovered a truly marvellous proof of this, which this comment is too small to contain.
As I've mentioned before, the web page design is quite spectacularly bad, a textbook example of what goes wrong when you let some geek get over-excited about interactive web pages. You have to hover the mouse over random and counter-intuitive bits of the page to actually find the data it's meant to be presenting, so for convenience I've summarised it here (central forecast percentage vote share and number of delegates):
If those forecasts are anything like right, Biden is doing better than I would have expected under the rules of the contest. I'm surprised he'd get that number of delegates, a respectable second behind Bernie .
Lord only knows why Klobuchar thinks it's worth persevering, and it looks like the end of the road for Bloomberg given how much advertising he's done here. Elizabeth Warren might well be able to keep going in the hope that something turns up.
RealClear polling Av for California is as follows.
Bloomberg's numbers look err Steyeresque in the state but I think his early voting nos could well make him viable. Biden has the opposite problem though there is some evidence moderates have held back their votes this time round to see who was most viable to stop Sanders of the 3 Bs.
Buttigieg supporters are remarkably evenly split between the candidates though I'd expect Biden and Sanders to grab more with their frontrunner status. Steyer supporters are probably more Biden friendly.
is a realistic outcome for the bear flag republic ?
If you are Sanders then you want as few opponents hitting 15% as possible, if you're Biden then the opposite.
I saw it suggested recently that undecideds or leaners tend not to early vote precisely because they want to choose later. No idea if there is evidence for it, but if so would suggest the impact of early voting to late swings might not be that big.
Greetings from Coronavirus Overreaction Central (aka London).
Various offices have apparently now shut down completely due to actual or potential outbreaks. Several firms are cancelling all external meetings, and/or converting to teleconferences where possible. We are going ahead, but asking participants to confirm they haven't travelled to an at-risk area.
Some firms still taking no precautions at all. There are some weird social dances going on where meetings take place at one of these, and we have to figure out if we can go or not.
In related news, the bit of the London insurance market that covers Contingency risks is starting to get really worried about the Olympics.
In unrelated news, I'm really disappointed that Scott_P hasn't come back as Scott_NP. There's a million dollars on the table if we figure this out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem
I have discovered a truly marvellous proof of this, which this comment is too small to contain.
Just so you can pelt me with rotten tomatoes, or hail me as the new Calpurnia as the case may be, here are the figures for coronavirus cases outside of China that are predicted for the next eight days by each of my three models. The reference is to figures reported at the Worldometers website, where they appear around 3am GMT each day for the day before. The next one will be published in about 12 hours from now, so you can check whether it is anywhere near 10035, 10108, or 10957. (The current figure is 8564.)
1) Model G Mon 2 March 10035 Tue 3 March 12220, Wed 4 March 14867 Thu 5 March 18074 Fri 6 March 21955 Sat 7 March 26647 Sun 8 March 32315 Mon 9 March 39157
2) Model L Mon 2 March 10108. Tue 3 March 12367 Wed 4 March 15131 Thu 5 March 18513 Fri 6 March 22650 Sat 7 March 27712 Sun 8 March 33906 Mon 9 March 41484
3) Model S Mon 2 Mar 10957 Tue 3 Mar 14236 Wed 4 Mar 18697 Thu 5 Mar 24820 Fri 6 Mar 33305 Sat 7 Mar 45174 Sun 8 Mar 61936 Mon 9 Mar 85835
Say we get lucky and 50% of people catch it (rather than the 70 or 80 that seems possible).
66 million in uk.
33 million catch it.
4% is 1,320,000.
If that is over 12 months, then ≈ 25K a week needing hospital.
50% of the UK catching does not seem 'lucky', given only 0.11% (yep, 1 in a 900) of the population of Hubei are confirmed as having caught it.
.
No, I meing the percentage infected.
Yes, the same as Asia.
The gloomy spin: third countries are causing new undetected hotspots in places that did have it under control. It’s now out “there” everywhere and contact tracing will seem like a quaint practice in a matter of weeks.
I flip between these two moods as often as bipolar transsexual alcoholic thriller writers change their identity.
Singapore is definitely a cause for modest optimism, in context.
Has every case in S'pore been traced to its origin? Is there any evidence of community transmission with no foreign travel?
I have stopped reading the bulletins so religiously because there’s now too many for me to keep track of (just under 100 cases). But last I heard they had identified the source of pretty much all cases. Yes some of these have been caught locally from people who caught locally.
They contact trace using your cellphone gps and cctv. I gather one chap is facing criminal prosecution for telling porkies about his movements pre hospital admission. I presume this was to protect the modesty of a young lady.
I am still in the dark about just what was wrong with me the last two weeks. Was so breathless I couldn’t talk at times. Dry cough. So fatigued I could barely make it up and down the stairs for about 10 days. And yet I never once had a fever so was never tested. I am told variously that covid-19 can be largely asymptomatic, but I am also told it always causes a fever. So which is true?
Perhaps someone could find it on google but I don’t know how many negative tests Singapore is throwing out a day. That’s where the UK approach is giving some cause for optimism, they’re testing far and wide and not finding that much so far.
Pete Buttigieg's vote should give us an indication of how much early voting forms part of California's primary. Not inconceivable he could beat Klobuchar ! One thing about California if candidates are close to 15% we might not know for ages precisely the delegate count. The headlines (Sanders wins Cali) will be there but the precise delegates, not so much.
Greetings from Coronavirus Overreaction Central (aka London).
Various offices have apparently now shut down completely due to actual or potential outbreaks. Several firms are cancelling all external meetings, and/or converting to teleconferences where possible. We are going ahead, but asking participants to confirm they haven't travelled to an at-risk area.
Some firms still taking no precautions at all. There are some weird social dances going on where meetings take place at one of these, and we have to figure out if we can go or not.
In related news, the bit of the London insurance market that covers Contingency risks is starting to get really worried about the Olympics.
In unrelated news, I'm really disappointed that Scott_P hasn't come back as Scott_NP. There's a million dollars on the table if we figure this out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem
I have discovered a truly marvellous proof of this, which this comment is too small to contain.
That gives us 350 years to sort it out then
Are you suggesting that I, like Fermat, am telling porkies?
On the upside, not many Iranians will now be flying out, the poor bastards.
Let's hope we don't end up with those kinds of scenes here.
This is my prediction:
Large scale passive panic* - Yes Widespread disruption - Yes Massive hit to the global economy - Yes Stock market crash - Yes Health care services swamped - Yes >1% overall death rate - No
(By passive panic, I mean people declining to go on holiday, attend events, commute, make non-essential purchases; rather than riots in the streets)
If we go about 20,000 concurrent cases the mortality rate will be towards the Wuhan 5% rather than the 'well treated, adequate care and facilities' sub 1%.
On the upside, not many Iranians will now be flying out, the poor bastards.
Let's hope we don't end up with those kinds of scenes here.
This is my prediction:
Large scale passive panic* - Yes Widespread disruption - Yes Massive hit to the global economy - Yes Stock market crash - Yes Health care services swamped - Yes >1% overall death rate - No
(By passive panic, I mean people declining to go on holiday, attend events, commute, make non-essential purchases; rather than riots in the streets)
Massive increase in birth-rate in 9 months - Yes...
Cabinet Office to investigate allegations about Priti Patel bullying officials, Gove tells MPs
Jeremy Corbyn asks his urgent question. He ask the PM to make a statement on the allegations against Priti Patel, and whether he will order and investigation.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is responding.
He says allegations have been made that Patel breached the ministerial code. The home secretary “absolutely rejects” these allegations.
He says he has the highest regard for her. She is a superb minister, he says.
But he says the PM has asked the Cabinet Office to carry out an investigation to establish the facts. He says Alex Allen, the PM’s independent adviser on ministerial standards, is available to help.
Not to go all parochial on you, but I'd be much more interested in what percentage of the European population the global experts think will be infected.
Why? Are Europeans so genetically different?? Italy says not. In fact Italy has a higher death rate than Korea, Japan, etc
No, I meing the percentage infected.
Yes, the same as Asia.
The positive spin: While no one really trusts China’s numbers, Singapore seems to have stabilised at 2-3 new cases per day. It’s been here long enough that one suspects there aren’t super high amounts of undetected walking about at the moment or you’d be seeing the sharp end of the cases in the clinics.
Entirely unscientifically, adjust such numbers to the UK’s population size. And that would imply a steady state number of new positive cases of 30 odd per day in the UK, once the initial scary phase is over. 200 odd per week, of which perhaps 20-50 need hospital and a small handful succumb.
The gloomy spin: third countries are causing new undetected hotspots in places that did have it under control. It’s now out “there” everywhere and contact tracing will seem like a quaint practice in a matter of weeks.
I flip between these two moods as often as bipolar transsexual alcoholic thriller writers change their identity.
Singapore is definitely a cause for modest optimism, in context.
Has every case in S'pore been traced to its origin? Is there any evidence of community transmission with no foreign travel?
Good graphic on how Singapore has tackled the virus - still 10 outstanding untraced cases:
Cabinet Office to investigate allegations about Priti Patel bullying officials, Gove tells MPs
Jeremy Corbyn asks his urgent question. He ask the PM to make a statement on the allegations against Priti Patel, and whether he will order and investigation.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is responding.
He says allegations have been made that Patel breached the ministerial code. The home secretary “absolutely rejects” these allegations.
He says he has the highest regard for her. She is a superb minister, he says.
But he says the PM has asked the Cabinet Office to carry out an investigation to establish the facts. He says Alex Allen, the PM’s independent adviser on ministerial standards, is available to help.
Back to the important stuff....not some deadly disease that could 20% of old people, no, if the nasty lady shouts and swears at people.
Oh God, Mrs U has just messaged to say she is rather concerned about this virus situation and is going to CostCo....this is going to be like Brexit Stockpiling on steroids.
I see you're all doing really well in NOT TALKING ABOUT CORONAVIRUS in my absence.
So I am not the only Vector of Fear.....
I’m really looking forward to your calm rational analysis if and when we have the first UK Covid-19 fatality on these shores.
I'll probably be the only one NOT panicking, as I got my panic in early, ie about four weeks ago, when I started telling you all that this was going to happen.
I have to say that you show admirable stamina in your capacity to panic, having managed to keep delivering a high pressing game for many weeks and with no signs of fatigue yet.
Posting stats on PB doesn't really count as panic, tho, does it? Or you set a very low bar.
Panicking, to my mind, is running naked to the greengrocers while avidly singing the Marseillaise.
OK go on then post some stats then.
On a daily basis how many people are dying from COVID19? How does that compare to how many people are dying daily from influenza? How does that compare to how many people are dying daily from road traffic accidents?
What stats do you have to share?
Yes, because if something is not happening now, that is conclusive proof that it will never happen at all.
"In a few hours it will be night."
"Oh yeah, how many stars are out now, then? How many streetlights are on? What stats have you got about those?"
An emergency doctor at the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris, where the two coronavirus patients died, Quentin Delannoy explains how the increase in the number of suspected cases in France no longer allows all patients to be tested. In the last day or two, there are so many suspicious cases that we can't screen everyone.
If a person coughs, with a slight fever and comes back from Lombardy (Italy), they are told to go home?
That's exactly right. If they have a mild form, they are sent home to quarantine without being diagnosed. Obviously, patients are a little reluctant to isolate themselves at home for 14 days when they don't know if they have the coronavirus. Samu is starting to do the same thing. If a patient calls in with a mild fever and cough, they tell them to stay home. It's a concern, but we're dealing with what we have. The hospital is already saturated, the number of beds is not expandable.
So, whatever France reports, times it by 5 to get real figures.
Not to go all parochial on you, but I'd be much more interested in what percentage of the European population the global experts think will be infected.
Why? Are Europeans so genetically different?? Italy says not. In fact Italy has a higher death rate than Korea, Japan, etc
No, I meing the percentage infected.
Yes, the same as Asia.
The positive spin: While no one really trusts China’s numbers, Singapore seems to have stabilised at 2-3 new cases per day. It’s been here long enough that one suspects there aren’t super high amounts of undetected walking about at the moment or you’d be seeing the sharp end of the cases in the clinics.
I flip between these two moods as often as bipolar transsexual alcoholic thriller writers change their identity.
Singapore is definitely a cause for modest optimism, in context.
Has every case in S'pore been traced to its origin? Is there any evidence of community transmission with no foreign travel?
"Lorraine Kelly has revealed that her daughter Rosie, 24, has 'self-isolated' after falling ill in Singapore amid fears about the spread of coronavirus.
The ITV host explained on her daytime show that despite her daughter just having a 'bit of a cold', her husband Steve Smith is jetting to Asia to be with her.
Speaking on Monday's episode, the 60-year-old presenter revealed that her husband had told her that Heathrow airport is 'dead' as travel to certain countries has been discouraged amid the spread of the disease."
So we now have to quarantine two people instead of one. Way to go, idiot rich people who think that quarantine invokes family going on a 14 hour flight to be with you.
Greetings from Coronavirus Overreaction Central (aka London).
Various offices have apparently now shut down completely due to actual or potential outbreaks. Several firms are cancelling all external meetings, and/or converting to teleconferences where possible. We are going ahead, but asking participants to confirm they haven't travelled to an at-risk area.
Some firms still taking no precautions at all. There are some weird social dances going on where meetings take place at one of these, and we have to figure out if we can go or not.
In related news, the bit of the London insurance market that covers Contingency risks is starting to get really worried about the Olympics.
In unrelated news, I'm really disappointed that Scott_P hasn't come back as Scott_NP. There's a million dollars on the table if we figure this out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem
I have discovered a truly marvellous proof of this, which this comment is too small to contain.
That gives us 350 years to sort it out then
Are you suggesting that I, like Fermat, am telling porkies?
I am outraged.
I prefer to think that Fermat was mistaken. I am d*rn sure he had not heard of the Shimura-Taniyama Conjecture
Better handwashing Better hygiene Better tracking and tracing Better self-isolation Better awareness Better communication Better home life Better nourished
Than most of the world.
That "libertarian" mask slips once more to reveal what lies beneath.
Interesting the differences in results. While STV is the theoretically best system, Ams is the most likely one to be adopted if the UK ever does switch to PR. It could potentially happen if 2024 results in a hung parliament. Unlike in 2010 when Labour were basically done with government, a Labour Party in 2024 would be much more willing to implement PR with Lib Dems to get into government.
If the Tories win 2024, its more likely that Labour would win in 2029 with a majority and so PR once again off the table.
Would the SNP be in favour of PR though? I’d say not, on the numbers.
We will be independent so will not matter
Good luck with that Malcolm....
Surely one of the lessons of Brexit is that going independent is anything but a clean process?
Only if the country is run by rogues and idiots and has same for opposition. We certainly have that with opposition but luckily there are a few sensible ones running the government
Comments
* it surely can't be as bad as Season 2.
Sanders 34.7
Biden 18.0
Warren 15.3
Bloomberg 13.0
Buttigieg 7.7
Klobuchar 4.7
Steyer 2.7
Gabbard 1.7
Bloomberg's numbers look err Steyeresque in the state but I think his early voting nos could well make him viable. Biden has the opposite problem though there is some evidence moderates have held back their votes this time round to see who was most viable to stop Sanders of the 3 Bs.
Buttigieg supporters are remarkably evenly split between the candidates though I'd expect Biden and Sanders to grab more with their frontrunner status. Steyer supporters are probably more Biden friendly.
So maybe
Sanders 37
Biden 20
Warren 16
Bloomberg 15
Buttigieg 8
Klobuchar 3
Gabbard 1
is a realistic outcome for the bear flag republic ?
If you are Sanders then you want as few opponents hitting 15% as possible, if you're Biden then the opposite.
Entirely unscientifically, adjust such numbers to the UK’s population size. And that would imply a steady state number of new positive cases of 30 odd per day in the UK, once the initial scary phase is over. 200 odd per week, of which perhaps 20-50 need hospital and a small handful succumb.
The gloomy spin: third countries are causing new undetected hotspots in places that did have it under control. It’s now out “there” everywhere and contact tracing will seem like a quaint practice in a matter of weeks.
I flip between these two moods as often as bipolar transsexual alcoholic thriller writers change their identity.
Avoid door knobs, stop shaking hands and use a pen to catch a lift: The physical steps you can take to stop yourself from catching coronavirus
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8064897/How-protect-catching-killer-coronavirus.html
Number of viable candidates is nevertheless the key.
The ITV host explained on her daytime show that despite her daughter just having a 'bit of a cold', her husband Steve Smith is jetting to Asia to be with her.
Speaking on Monday's episode, the 60-year-old presenter revealed that her husband had told her that Heathrow airport is 'dead' as travel to certain countries has been discouraged amid the spread of the disease."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8064673/Lorraine-Kelly-reveals-daughter-Rosie-self-isolated-Singapore-amid-coronavirus-fears.html
Something has turned up sadly.
I mean an unwed mother was frowned upon in those days.
Large scale passive panic* - Yes
Widespread disruption - Yes
Massive hit to the global economy - Yes
Stock market crash - Yes
Health care services swamped - Yes
>1% overall death rate - No
(By passive panic, I mean people declining to go on holiday, attend events, commute, make non-essential purchases; rather than riots in the streets)
Tell us how many there will be on 1 May?
They contact trace using your cellphone gps and cctv. I gather one chap is facing criminal prosecution for telling porkies about his movements pre hospital admission. I presume this was to protect the modesty of a young lady.
I am still in the dark about just what was wrong with me the last two weeks. Was so breathless I couldn’t talk at times. Dry cough. So fatigued I could barely make it up and down the stairs for about 10 days. And yet I never once had a fever so was never tested. I am told variously that covid-19 can be largely asymptomatic, but I am also told it always causes a fever. So which is true?
Perhaps someone could find it on google but I don’t know how many negative tests Singapore is throwing out a day. That’s where the UK approach is giving some cause for optimism, they’re testing far and wide and not finding that much so far.
One thing about California if candidates are close to 15% we might not know for ages precisely the delegate count. The headlines (Sanders wins Cali) will be there but the precise delegates, not so much.
Social isolation is an entirely rational and appropriate response to the viral threat.
I am outraged.
I ate in a Korean restaurant on Saturday.
Cabinet Office to investigate allegations about Priti Patel bullying officials, Gove tells MPs
Jeremy Corbyn asks his urgent question. He ask the PM to make a statement on the allegations against Priti Patel, and whether he will order and investigation.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is responding.
He says allegations have been made that Patel breached the ministerial code. The home secretary “absolutely rejects” these allegations.
He says he has the highest regard for her. She is a superb minister, he says.
But he says the PM has asked the Cabinet Office to carry out an investigation to establish the facts. He says Alex Allen, the PM’s independent adviser on ministerial standards, is available to help.
https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2020/02/spore-virus-cases/index.html
Dom's on the case!
"In a few hours it will be night."
"Oh yeah, how many stars are out now, then? How many streetlights are on? What stats have you got about those?"
http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/coronavirus-on-a-tellement-de-cas-suspects-qu-on-ne-peut-plus-depister-tout-le-monde-29-02-2020-8269836.php
An emergency doctor at the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris, where the two coronavirus patients died, Quentin Delannoy explains how the increase in the number of suspected cases in France no longer allows all patients to be tested.
In the last day or two, there are so many suspicious cases that we can't screen everyone.
If a person coughs, with a slight fever and comes back from Lombardy (Italy), they are told to go home?
That's exactly right. If they have a mild form, they are sent home to quarantine without being diagnosed. Obviously, patients are a little reluctant to isolate themselves at home for 14 days when they don't know if they have the coronavirus. Samu is starting to do the same thing. If a patient calls in with a mild fever and cough, they tell them to stay home. It's a concern, but we're dealing with what we have. The hospital is already saturated, the number of beds is not expandable.
So, whatever France reports, times it by 5 to get real figures.
Elliptic curves anyone?
NEW THREAD