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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Buttigieg quitting the WH2020 race triggers Biden bounce in th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Buttigieg quitting the WH2020 race triggers Biden bounce in the Dem nomination betting
The big development in the race for the White House overnight has been the decision by Pete Buttigieg to quit the race following his poor performance in South Carolina.
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It’s a hold for me.
By contrast there’s been none with Sanders so he’s appealing directly over his head to his voters.
How we get through this depends to some extent on how pragmatic and foresighted the government turn out to be.
They do have the advantage of more preparation time than many countries, the chance to learn from others' mistakes, and a decent nationwide public health administration.
(Note both use "historic".)
https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1234382237463912449
Who else stands a chance, ‘cos there’s 10% missing?
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2019-General-Election-Report.pdf
A significant and credible (and disgraceful) threat.
If the Tories win 2024, its more likely that Labour would win in 2029 with a majority and so PR once again off the table.
Mildly surprised that Perez is shorter than Sainz (Norris same as Sainz, Stroll longer).
"The UK remains the only democracy in Europe to
use First Past the Post (FPTP) to elect its MPs",
but they then go on to completely ignore the form of PR used in Europe's largest democracy (ignoring Russia)
Potentially important for contested convention - Biden way out in front amongst the great and the good.
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1234409037556568064?s=21
As the figures suggest the biggest winners from PR would be the LDs, followed by the Greens and Brexit Party, the biggest losers the Tories and SNP.
Labour would benefit under STV but lose out under AMS
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/
There was that Pádraig Belton tweet that no one believed because C. Symonds wasn't thought to be pregnant but now.....
I suspect that a compromise looks something like a percentage of fish caught in UK waters, roughly equal to that currently landed in the EU but destined for non-EU markets, needs to be landed in the UK. Probably also includes a review every three or five years, as opposed to annually with the EU- Norway deal.
I think we'll end up going with the EU.
A “pragmatic and foresighted” government would not risk the health of its citizens because it cares more about making a point about “red lines”.
This is malevolence by the government. It is despicable.
I suppose in theory we might go back to having GEs every four years instead of every five.
I definitely foresee Labour leading in the polls at certain points, the Tory honeymoon won't last forever and they're surely nearly at their watermark in support now.
I don’t see how it ends with an immediate election though, short of signing up to rejoin the EU there’s nothing that’s going to cause 40 Tory MPs to cross the floor - remembering that every single floor-crosser in the last Parliament lost their seat in the subsequent election!
Anyway you can 33/1 on it with Ladbrokes.
Let's get back to some sensible betting
Perhaps one death out of the 190 MPs aged between 40 and 49;
two to three of the 197 MPs between 50 and 59...
and maybe six out of the remaining 142 aged over 60.
Democracy is unlikely to be overturned - and that is assuming a 100% infection rate.
Even the current bunch in power have some chance of making a decent fist of it.
For what it's worth, a Morning Consult poll has/had the Buttigieg vote split quite evenly between Sanders, Biden, Warren and Bloomberg. Many preferences come down to name recognition rather than to 'ideology' and so on. If Biden outperforms expectations tomorrow then it would probably be more down to post-South Carolina momentum rather than to Buttgieg's withdrawal.
The pretty follies, that they themselves commit...
She wouldn't be the first woman to believe that it is different this time.
By the sounds of it, the government is going to demand school teachers to 'teach' classes of up to 60. Meanwhile I am sure they will be quick to prorogue parliament because of the risk of infection.
Them and Us.
It is now strong odds on that there WILL be a recession in the US this year. That is a big market move over the weekend. If so, perhaps the Dow remains a strong sell. Its fall last week only took it back to where it was a few months ago. How about it tests 20,000 at some point in the near future?
Rather than back Bernie for the Nom at 2.04, is it not better to back "no contested convention" at 2.4? Rationale: Bernie will not win a contested convention and thus will only get the Nom with an outright majority.
It's quite a sobering thought that the Brexit we are going to get will come about courtesy of FPTP rather than courtesy of how people voted
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Authorities in China have closed the first of 16 hospitals specially built in Wuhan to tackle the coronavirus epidemic, the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV has said. According to Reuters:
News of the closure coincided with a sharp fall in new cases in Hubei province and its capital of Wuhan but China remained on alert for people returning home with the virus from other countries where it has spread.
“The rapid rising trend of virus cases in Wuhan has been controlled,” Mi Feng, a spokesman for China’s National Health Commission told a briefing.
“Outbreaks in Hubei outside of Wuhan are curbed and provinces outside of Hubei are showing a positive trend.”
The virus emerged in Wuhan late last year and has since infected more than 86,500 people, the majority in China, with most in Hubei.
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The lockdown seems to be working very well in China.
At the very end we will be able to see which countries got their policies right for this and which were just too decadent.