Incidentally, I've noticed a pattern emerging.

The second Sir Edric book is about an unsuitable chap leading a nation.

The third is about a plague.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B07BN2W1L7/

“I don’t wish to alarm you, sir, but you appear to be dripping amniotic fluid,” Dog said.

For those curious, the fourth is about an ancient evil threatening to end the world.

david_herdson said:

eristdoof said:

Charles said:

eek said:

Charles said:

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

Actually that is 100% diametrically wrong

You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt

Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.

Don’t look at the market from day to day

Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something

Against the essentially random short and medium term market swings, yes.

When there is a discrete event that will clearly damage the world economy and take markets down with it, possibly for an extended period, not so much.

Last week I seem to recall Charles castigating Mr Meeks for his article on Coronavirus. Irresponsible, Charles said. We understand the virus well, he went on.

No further comment necessary.

You remember incorrectly

I said we are working hard and learning fast (we understand the coronavirus genus well)

I castigated him first his worst case scenario

Coronavirus will probably become endemic and seasonal. The world is not going to come to an end

endemic and seasonal with a fatality rate higher than flu doesn't sound like a great combination.

We don’t know the death rates yet

In addition there’s going to be an overlap between those vulnerable to flu thereby reducing* the absolute number of incremental deaths

* I was goi g to say “cannibalising” but didn’t want to upset poor @eadric

Well in Italy the death rate is over 2%. In China it is 3.5%, in Japan it is around 1%. Only in Korea does it seem to be significantly lower than that. These are not insignificant rates if the virus spreads to a large number of people.

The question is, what is the death rate when you don't have access to intensive care facilities? When there are only a few dozen, or even a few hundred, cases you can deal with them in your normal facilities. You can't do that with a few tens of thousands, never mind a couple of million - and if, say, 5% of cases do become critical and 50% of the population are infected (not all at once, of course), then those facilities wouldn't be available.

Wuhan's fatality rate was about 5% iirc. We have 3 times as many 75+ year olds (the critical age for fatality risk), and 6 times as many obese people (far higher chance of developing pneumonia). On the flipside our pollution isn't nearly as bad.

Disinfection robots sent to China.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/disinfection-robots-working-overtime-on-coronavirus/?ftag=TRE-03-10aaa6b&bhid=5789242

eristdoof said:

CarlottaVance said:

Henrietta2 said:

eadric said:

A thought on worst case scenarios.

I was criticised earlier for conjecturing what they might be, but I believe they are useful, indeed necessary.

Imagine a patient with gangrene in his little toe. The doctor comes along, examines him, and says "The best treatment might be to chop off the leg."

At this point the patient says, What the hell, why would you do that?

The doctor replies: Because if I don't things could get really bad.

The patient will then ask: OK, how bad, what's the worst case scenario?

If the doctor replies, "there's a 1% chance of the gangrene spreading and killing you", the patient will make an informed choice to refuse the amputation. If the doctor says "there's a 90% chance of the gangrene spreading and killing you.", the patient will reluctantly accept the amputation.

Putting the country into Wuham style lockdown will be horribly painful and cause serious damage - like an amputation. But if there is a realistic worst case scenario of mass death and a 70% infection rate, etc etc, if we DON'T do this, then Britain will reluctantly accept this severe restriction.

The government needs to start levelling with the voters. Brutal honesty is the only way.

They could start by telling us

1) how many people in Britain have been tested (15 have tested positive);

As of 27 February, a total of 7,690 people have been tested in the UK, of which 7,675 were confirmed negative and 15 positive.

The Department of Health and Social Care will be publishing updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

When a clinician suspects novel coronavirus (COVID-19), they take samples from the nose, throat and deeper respiratory samples, package and send them safely to PHE Colindale. PHE can provide a laboratory result from this specific virus on the same working day.

As far as I understand the UK is one of the only countries to have started testing early lots of samples for COVID 19, to determine if the virus is already widespread but undetected. This is a really sensible thing to be doing.

As I posted on an earlier thread:
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/02/119_285251.html
Across the nation, local governments and hospitals have launched an easier and faster testing method -- "drive-thru" test centers that allow a driver with symptoms to get a test inside his or her car. The whole test procedure takes about 10 minutes, and such facilities are also aimed at helping protect health workers...

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I always wash my hands when using public conveniences but it's amazing how many people don't bother.

Most men only do it if there's somebody else there to see. It's the opposite of picking your nose in this respect. Or masturbation.

If you need to wash your hands after touching your penis, this suggest that you need to wash your penis.

eadric said:

BluestBlue said:

eadric said:

MaxPB said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1233074621186035715

Lesson one to anyone who has ever worked professionally where they need clean hands - don't miss between the fingers and the fingertips. Ironically the finger tips are the most omitted place normally.

One thing I learned on Twitter today, after washing your hands in a public loo do NOT use the air dryer, as it is a brilliant vector for viruses.

New paper towels is the way to go

Yeah air dryers, even the Dyson one, are basically bacteria blowers.

This is the kind of basic, useful advice that HMG should be pumping out hourly to the people.

This is an emergency. They should be comandeering airtime on the TV. Public Service Broadcasts 24/7.

I get a sense of dither from the government. Not good.

24/7 emergency government broadcasts? Great way to incite a panic. Anyone who uses virtually any media source and has a reading age above 6 is getting the message loud and clear.

A bit of panic will prepare us all for the inevitable closures and quarantines coming our way. Right now I do not think we are mentally prepped.

Well, I'm a natural worrier and so I started serious preparations a month ago. The more insouciant people I know are starting to take it seriously now.

As far as media communications are concerned, the main splash on the homepage of the Daily Star - the Daily Star! - is about the first Briton to die of the disease, with a dozen links to related stories.

The headline immediately below it is 'OnlyFans models using coronavirus epidemic to flog nude selfies on Twitter'.

That's what I call cutting through to the masses

SandyRentool said:

eadric said:

MaxPB said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1233074621186035715

Lesson one to anyone who has ever worked professionally where they need clean hands - don't miss between the fingers and the fingertips. Ironically the finger tips are the most omitted place normally.

One thing I learned on Twitter today, after washing your hands in a public loo do NOT use the air dryer, as it is a brilliant vector for viruses.

New paper towels is the way to go

Yeah air dryers, even the Dyson one, are basically bacteria blowers.

This is the kind of basic, useful advice that HMG should be pumping out hourly to the people.

This is an emergency. They should be comandeering airtime on the TV. Public Service Broadcasts 24/7.

I get a sense of dither from the government. Not good.

Instead we get adverts for cruise holidays!

Advertising programmes can be nearly as difficult to stop as cruise liners.

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I always wash my hands when using public conveniences but it's amazing how many people don't bother.

Most men only do it if there's somebody else there to see. It's the opposite of picking your nose in this respect. Or masturbation.

If you need to wash your hands after touching your penis, this suggest that you need to wash your penis.

I keep reading exhortations not to touch our own faces (as we unconsciously do several times per hour) as not to touch our own faeces..., and thinking I'm relatively in the clear.

Relatively?

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

You have got yourself a perfectly serviceable rule of thumb there, but rules of thumb give way to specific exceptions. What we had four weeks ago was a once in a lifetime anomaly of a black swan which anyone who was paying attention could see coming a mile off, irrespective of their market prowess. Events have already proved what the right course of action was. It wasn't holding come what may.

Fun fact: the ftse was where it is now (nominally) in June 2007.

The market was slow to appreciate the economic threat - thus last week there was presented to anybody who HAD appreciated it that rarest of opportunities, the ONE WAY BET. Sell index futures and if you were wrong, i.e. if you were overestimating what Covid was about to do, you might lose a modest sum as the market carried on ticking along. No risk of a serious loss since there was no risk of a big market jump. OTOH, if you were right, CRASH, big drop, big juicy profits. It had to be done, really, I decided as much myself, and then I didn't do it. Instead I got my car's MOT done.

Which is what I said to everyone Monday morning. And again Monday lunchtime. My regret is being limited by the absurd margin requirements imposed on spread betting not to have placed some larger stakes.

I remember the story my first boss told me in the 1980s about how he overcame his addiction to betting daily on the horses. The day came when a horse he knew well was racing at good odds in conditions that he could see were highly favourable. He put on double his normal stake, and went to the bookies to watch the race (as one did back then). His favoured horse was first out of the gate, was leading at the half way mark, had a commanding lead coming into the final straight, and crossed the finish post yards ahead of the field. As he collected his winnings, he realised that he had just seen what most punters dream of - the sure thing - yet he had failed to back it with a serious amount of his own money.

He told me that he knew then that more favourable circumstances were unlikely to come along again, and so he was wasting his time poring over the form and spending all his break time in the bookies, in the hope of one day landing the big win, if he didn’t have the courage to match it with big stakes. He said he had never placed another bet since then.

At least this time I am heading for £6k to collect as winnings. But it was such a one way bet that it is frustrating not to have risked more.

IanB2 said:

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

You have got yourself a perfectly serviceable rule of thumb there, but rules of thumb give way to specific exceptions. What we had four weeks ago was a once in a lifetime anomaly of a black swan which anyone who was paying attention could see coming a mile off, irrespective of their market prowess. Events have already proved what the right course of action was. It wasn't holding come what may.

Fun fact: the ftse was where it is now (nominally) in June 2007.

The market was slow to appreciate the economic threat - thus last week there was presented to anybody who HAD appreciated it that rarest of opportunities, the ONE WAY BET. Sell index futures and if you were wrong, i.e. if you were overestimating what Covid was about to do, you might lose a modest sum as the market carried on ticking along. No risk of a serious loss since there was no risk of a big market jump. OTOH, if you were right, CRASH, big drop, big juicy profits. It had to be done, really, I decided as much myself, and then I didn't do it. Instead I got my car's MOT done.

Which is what I said to everyone Monday morning. And again Monday lunchtime. My regret is being limited by the absurd margin requirements imposed on spread betting not to have placed some larger stakes.

I remember the story my first boss told me in the 1980s about how he overcame his addiction to betting daily on the horses. The day came when a horse he knew well was racing at good odds in conditions that he could see were highly favourable. He put on double his normal stake, and went to the bookies to watch the race (as one did back then). His favoured horse was first out of the gate, was leading at the half way mark, had a commanding lead coming into the final straight, and crossed the finish post yards ahead of the field. As he collected his winnings, he realised that he had just seen what most punters dream of - the sure thing - yet he had failed to back it with a serious amount of his own money.

He told me that he knew then that more favourable circumstances were unlikely to come along again, and so he was wasting his time poring over the form and spending all his break time in the bookies, in the hope of one day landing the big win, if he didn’t have the courage to match it with big stakes. He said he had never placed another bet since then.

At least this time I am heading for £6k to collect as winnings. But it was such a one way bet that it is frustrating not to have risked more.

If you dont like the margin requirements use options instead of a straight sell. Buying options gives you a known downside so easy to manage risk.

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

You have got yourself a perfectly serviceable rule of thumb there, but rules of thumb give way to specific exceptions. What we had four weeks ago was a once in a lifetime anomaly of a black swan which anyone who was paying attention could see coming a mile off, irrespective of their market prowess. Events have already proved what the right course of action was. It wasn't holding come what may.

Fun fact: the ftse was where it is now (nominally) in June 2007.

The market was slow to appreciate the economic threat - thus last week there was presented toad to be done, really, I decided as much myself, and then I didn't do it. Instead I got my car's MOT done.

Which is what I said to everyone Monday morning. And again Monday lunchtime. My regret is being limited by the absurd margin requirements imposed on spread betting not to have placed some larger stakes.

I remember the story my first boss told me in the 1980s about how he overcame his addiction to betting daily on the horses. The day came when a horse he knew well was racing at good odds in conditions that he could see were highly favourable. He put on double his normal stake, and went to the bookies to watch the race (as one did back then). His favoured horse was first out of the gate, was leading at the half way mark, had a commanding lead coming into the final straight, and crossed the finish post yards ahead of the field. As he collected his winnings, he realised that he had just seen what most punters dream of - the sure thing - yet he had failed to back it with a serious amount of his own money.

He told me that he knew then that more favourable circumstances were unlikely to come along again, and so he was wasting his time poring over the form and spending all his break time in the bookies, in the hope of one day landing the big win, if he didn’t have the courage to match it with big stakes. He said he had never placed another bet since then.

At least this time I am heading for £6k to collect as winnings. But it was such a one way bet that it is frustrating not to have risked more.

If you dont like the margin requirements use options instead of a straight sell. Buying options gives you a known downside so easy to manage risk.

For sure. But one always feels happier trading on familiar territory. I could have emptied bank accounts and sent it all over to my trading account, and placed bigger stakes. With hindsight.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1233417013558640641?s=20

You'd think the government would hire some sort of superforecaster to help out with the numbers.

What's the covid-19 version of schadenfreude?

https://twitter.com/markets/status/1233416649853804545

Number of tests and positivity rate for Covid-19 as of Feb. 26

UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 470 positive (5.0% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
South Korea: 66,652 tests with 1766 positives (2.6% positivity rate), 25568 awaiting results.
United States: 445 concluded tests, of which 14 positive (3.1% positivity rate).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

Heck, Guernsey (pop 64,000) has conducted 58 tests, one eighth of the US - if the US was testing at the same rate as the UK they would have conducted over 35,000 by now, not 445.....

IanB2 said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

Pulpstar said:

eadric said:

The Germans are panicking. *insert WW2 joke*

https://twitter.com/kressetoast/status/1233415474991566851?s=20

Bread and milk are going to be sold out here shortly aren't they ?

The panic police will be after you for that.

Bought 6 kilos strong white bread flour this morning. Milk I'd rather not have at all than long life or powder.

I bought my masks, tons of sanitiser and 2 weeks of food about a week ago. I can't work out why I bought spaghetti rather than penne. I hate spaghetti.

I think it was probably because spaghetti was slightly cheaper, like it matters in this situation. Already a kind of wartime frugality is kicking in. Soon we will have chicory coffee and spam fritters.

Two weeks? Methinks you are not taking this crisis seriously, after all.

Not if he is buying food from Italy, the most infected country in Europe. I've thrown out both tins of spaghetti hoops from the pasta section of my pantry. I hope at least he remembered to disinfect the handle of his supermarket trolley.

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

You have got yourself a perfectly serviceable rule of thumb there, but rules of thumb give way to specific exceptions. What we had four weeks ago was a once in a lifetime anomaly of a black swan which anyone who was paying attention could see coming a mile off, irrespective of their market prowess. Events have already proved what the right course of action was. It wasn't holding come what may.

Fun fact: the ftse was where it is now (nominally) in June 2007.

The market was slow to appreciate the economic threat - thus last week there was presented to anybody who HAD appreciated it that rarest of opportunities, the ONE WAY BET. Sell index futures and if you were wrong, i.e. if you were overestimating what Covid was about to do, you might lose a modest sum as the market carried on ticking along. No risk of a serious loss since there was no risk of a big market jump. OTOH, if you were right, CRASH, big drop, big juicy profits. It had to be done, really, I decided as much myself, and then I didn't do it. Instead I got my car's MOT done.

Which is what I said to everyone Monday morning. And again Monday lunchtime. My regret is being limited by the absurd margin requirements imposed on spread betting not to have placed some larger stakes.

I remember the story my first boss told me in the 1980s about how he overcame his addiction to betting daily on the horses. The day came when a horse he knew well was racing at good odds in conditions that he could see were highly favourable. He put on double his normal stake, and went to the bookies to watch the race (as one did back then). His favoured horse was first out of the gate, was leading at the half way mark, had a commanding lead coming into the final straight, and crossed the finish post yards ahead of the field. As he collected his winnings, he realised that he had just seen what most punters dream of - the sure thing - yet he had failed to back it with a serious amount of his own money.

He told me that he knew then that more favourable circumstances were unlikely to come along again, and so he was wasting his time poring over the form and spending all his break time in the bookies, in the hope of one day landing the big win, if he didn’t have the courage to match it with big stakes. He said he had never placed another bet since then.

At least this time I am heading for £6k to collect as winnings. But it was such a one way bet that it is frustrating not to have risked more.

Back Sadiq to be next London Mayor.

Unless he dies that’s a total sure thing.

What if he gets the virus?

He will recover.

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

You have got yourself a perfectly serviceable rule of thumb there, but rules of thumb give way to specific exceptions. What we had four weeks ago was a once in a lifetime anomaly of a black swan which anyone who was paying attention could see coming a mile off, irrespective of their market prowess. Events have already proved what the right course of action was. It wasn't holding come what may.

Fun fact: the ftse was where it is now (nominally) in June 2007.

The market was slow to appreciate the economic threat - thus last week there was presented to anybody who HAD appreciated it that rarest of opportunities, the ONE WAY BET. Sell index futures and if you were wrong, i.e. if you were overestimating what Covid was about to do, you might lose a modest sum as the market carried on ticking along. No risk of a serious loss since there was no risk of a big market jump. OTOH, if you were right, CRASH, big drop, big juicy profits. It had to be done, really, I decided as much myself, and then I didn't do it. Instead I got my car's MOT done.

Which is what I said to everyone Monday morning. And again Monday lunchtime. My regret is being limited by the absurd margin requirements imposed on spread betting not to have placed some larger stakes.

I remember the story my first boss told me in the 1980s about how he overcame his addiction to betting daily on the horses. The day came when a horse he knew well was racing at good odds in conditions that he could see were highly favourable. He put on double his normal stake, and went to the bookies to watch the race (as one did back then). His favoured horse was first out of the gate, was leading at the half way mark, had a commanding lead coming into the final straight, and crossed the finish post yards ahead of the field. As he collected his winnings, he realised that he had just seen what most punters dream of - the sure thing - yet he had failed to back it with a serious amount of his own money.

He told me that he knew then that more favourable circumstances were unlikely to come along again, and so he was wasting his time poring over the form and spending all his break time in the bookies, in the hope of one day landing the big win, if he didn’t have the courage to match it with big stakes. He said he had never placed another bet since then.

At least this time I am heading for £6k to collect as winnings. But it was such a one way bet that it is frustrating not to have risked more.

Back Sadiq to be next London Mayor.

Unless he dies that’s a total sure thing.

What if he gets the virus?

He's very likely to survive it being in his 40s and excellent health.

kinabalu said:

IanB2 said:

Which is what I said to everyone Monday morning. And again Monday lunchtime. My regret is being limited by the absurd margin requirements imposed on spread betting not to have placed some larger stakes.

I remember the story my first boss told me in the 1980s about how he overcame his addiction to betting daily on the horses. The day came when a horse he knew well was racing at good odds in conditions that he could see were highly favourable. He put on double his normal stake, and went to the bookies to watch the race (as one did back then). His favoured horse was first out of the gate, was leading at the half way mark, had a commanding lead coming into the final straight, and crossed the finish post yards ahead of the field. As he collected his winnings, he realised that he had just seen what most punters dream of - the sure thing - yet he had failed to back it with a serious amount of his own money.

He told me that he knew then that more favourable circumstances were unlikely to come along again, and so he was wasting his time poring over the form and spending all his break time in the bookies, in the hope of one day landing the big win, if he didn’t have the courage to match it with big stakes. He said he had never placed another bet since then.

At least this time I am heading for £6k to collect as winnings. But it was such a one way bet that it is frustrating not to have risked more.

Good story. I don't feel too rotten because I'm not in the habit of trading the stock markets and I happen (for reasons nothing to do with Covid) to have sold most of my shares a while back. But you only get a handful of these Crashes in a lifetime so it is galling. What I might do now is see if I can call the bottom (or close to it) and pile in then. Because Crashes give 2 big opportunities, one going in and the other coming out.

For sure. And in previous crashes the optimum buy point arrives earlier than you think - and normally at the point of maximum despair.

The trouble this time is that there are plausible reasons, both medical and economic, for a scenario where there’s a weak recovery followed by a second even worse collapse.

IanB2 said:

kinabalu said:

IanB2 said:

Which is what I said to everyone Monday morning. And again Monday lunchtime. My regret is being limited by the absurd margin requirements imposed on spread betting not to have placed some larger stakes.

I remember the story my first boss told me in the 1980s about how he overcame his addiction to betting daily on the horses. The day came when a horse he knew well was racing at good odds in conditions that he could see were highly favourable. He put on double his normal stake, and went to the bookies to watch the race (as one did back then). His favoured horse was first out of the gate, was leading at the half way mark, had a commanding lead coming into the final straight, and crossed the finish post yards ahead of the field. As he collected his winnings, he realised that he had just seen what most punters dream of - the sure thing - yet he had failed to back it with a serious amount of his own money.

He told me that he knew then that more favourable circumstances were unlikely to come along again, and so he was wasting his time poring over the form and spending all his break time in the bookies, in the hope of one day landing the big win, if he didn’t have the courage to match it with big stakes. He said he had never placed another bet since then.

At least this time I am heading for £6k to collect as winnings. But it was such a one way bet that it is frustrating not to have risked more.

Good story. I don't feel too rotten because I'm not in the habit of trading the stock markets and I happen (for reasons nothing to do with Covid) to have sold most of my shares a while back. But you only get a handful of these Crashes in a lifetime so it is galling. What I might do now is see if I can call the bottom (or close to it) and pile in then. Because Crashes give 2 big opportunities, one going in and the other coming out.

For sure. And in previous crashes the optimum buy point arrives earlier than you think - and normally at the point of maximum despair.

The trouble this time is that there are plausible reasons, both medical and economic, for a scenario where there’s a weak recovery followed by a second even worse collapse.

There's an apocryphal story that the first Rothschild on his deathbed said:

"I have spent my entire life making people happy, because I sold to them when they were desperate to buy and bought from them when they were desperate to sell."

I expect it's attributed to quite a few other investment gurus too.

IshmaelZ said:

I keep reading exhortations not to touch our own faces (as we unconsciously do several times per hour) as not to touch our own faeces..., and thinking I'm relatively in the clear.

That is an unfortunate glitch.

The first time ever I saw your f ...

MaxPB said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1233074621186035715

Lesson one to anyone who has ever worked professionally where they need clean hands - don't miss between the fingers and the fingertips. Ironically the finger tips are the most omitted place normally.

One thing I learned on Twitter today, after washing your hands in a public loo do NOT use the air dryer, as it is a brilliant vector for viruses.

New paper towels is the way to go

Yeah air dryers, even the Dyson one, are basically bacteria blowers.

Especially the Dyson ones, sadly. They are more energy efficient, relying less on heat and more on airflow.

The consequence of which is that there is less heat to kill bacteria or viruses, while the higher airflow sends them skittling all over the bathroom.

SandyRentool said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I always wash my hands when using public conveniences but it's amazing how many people don't bother.

Most men only do it if there's somebody else there to see. It's the opposite of picking your nose in this respect. Or masturbation.

If you need to wash your hands after touching your penis, this suggest that you need to wash your penis.

If urine started streaming out of your hands I wouldn't shake your hands afterwards.

NickPalmer said:

eadric said:

I think it was probably because spaghetti was slightly cheaper, like it matters in this situation. Already a kind of wartime frugality is kicking in. Soon we will have chicory coffee and spam fritters.

Spam fritters sound yum.

omg....Camp Coffee!

AlastairMeeks said:

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

I keep reading exhortations not to touch our own faces (as we unconsciously do several times per hour) as not to touch our own faeces..., and thinking I'm relatively in the clear.

That is an unfortunate glitch.

The first time ever I saw your f ...

And the moon and the stars were a gift you gave.

Theme tune to one of the most unsettling films I’ve seen.

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

I keep reading exhortations not to touch our own faces (as we unconsciously do several times per hour) as not to touch our own faeces..., and thinking I'm relatively in the clear.

That is an unfortunate glitch.

The first time ever I saw your f ...

And the moon and the stars were a gift you gave.

Theme tune to one of the most unsettling films I’ve seen.

Appropriately. it's one of the most unsettling songs, one of the few songs to capture the sheer intensity of love. It's also a rare example of a tune that is not formulaic coupled with lyrics that are not formulaic that match and enhance each other.

Andy_JS said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1233074621186035715

I always wash my hands when using public conveniences but it's amazing how many people don't bother.

And then you have to touch the same door-handle as them.

Canned goods and shotguns it is then.

northernpowerhouse2 said:

I always wash hands, maybe except in the middle of the night. In a public loo, always always always. Without fail.

"Mandy" applies. But I believe you.

kinabalu said:

northernpowerhouse2 said:

I always wash hands, maybe except in the middle of the night. In a public loo, always always always. Without fail.

"Mandy" applies. But I believe you.

He came and he gave without taking?

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

I keep reading exhortations not to touch our own faces (as we unconsciously do several times per hour) as not to touch our own faeces..., and thinking I'm relatively in the clear.

That is an unfortunate glitch.

The first time ever I saw your f ...

And the moon and the stars were a gift you gave.

Theme tune to one of the most unsettling films I’ve seen.

Appropriately. it's one of the most unsettling songs, one of the few songs to capture the sheer intensity of love. It's also a rare example of a tune that is not formulaic coupled with lyrics that are not formulaic that match and enhance each other.

I didn’t realise Roberta Flack’s wasn’t the original. Just read about it and listened to the Peggy Seeger version - Flack certainly put her own stamp on it!

AlastairMeeks said:

He came and he gave without taking?

Indeed. Lyric and a half, that is. Cannot for the life of me understand why he has never graced the pyramid stage at Glasto. OK, maybe not as a headliner, but at least in the legends slot.

Oops, this looks worrying:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/fears-that-surrey-gp-is-uks-latest-coronavirus-victim

This thread has been quarantined.

IanB2 said:

kinabalu said:

IanB2 said:

Which is what I said to everyone Monday morning. And again Monday lunchtime. My regret is being limited by the absurd margin requirements imposed on spread betting not to have placed some larger stakes.

I remember the story my first boss told me in the 1980s about how he overcame his addiction to betting daily on the horses. The day came when a horse he knew well was racing at good odds in conditions that he could see were highly favourable. He put on double his normal stake, and went to the bookies to watch the race (as one did back then). His favoured horse was first out of the gate, was leading at the half way mark, had a commanding lead coming into the final straight, and crossed the finish post yards ahead of the field. As he collected his winnings, he realised that he had just seen what most punters dream of - the sure thing - yet he had failed to back it with a serious amount of his own money.

He told me that he knew then that more favourable circumstances were unlikely to come along again, and so he was wasting his time poring over the form and spending all his break time in the bookies, in the hope of one day landing the big win, if he didn’t have the courage to match it with big stakes. He said he had never placed another bet since then.

At least this time I am heading for £6k to collect as winnings. But it was such a one way bet that it is frustrating not to have risked more.

Good story. I don't feel too rotten because I'm not in the habit of trading the stock markets and I happen (for reasons nothing to do with Covid) to have sold most of my shares a while back. But you only get a handful of these Crashes in a lifetime so it is galling. What I might do now is see if I can call the bottom (or close to it) and pile in then. Because Crashes give 2 big opportunities, one going in and the other coming out.

For sure. And in previous crashes the optimum buy point arrives earlier than you think - and normally at the point of maximum despair.

The trouble this time is that there are plausible reasons, both medical and economic, for a scenario where there’s a weak recovery followed by a second even worse collapse.

Although, as with the prices, the 'point of maximum despair' is only identifiable in retrospect.

IIRC, didn't the 1929 crash take three years to finally bottom out?

Daveyboy1961 said:

NickPalmer said:

eadric said:

I think it was probably because spaghetti was slightly cheaper, like it matters in this situation. Already a kind of wartime frugality is kicking in. Soon we will have chicory coffee and spam fritters.

Spam fritters sound yum.

omg....Camp Coffee!

The changes to the Camp Coffee logo design are fun.

CarlottaVance said:

Is the gulf between the UK and the EU unbridgeable?
The honest answer is that we don’t know – a deal will require one or both parties to move. But they are less far apart than they look or than the rhetoric or accompanying commentaries seem to imply.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-the-gulf-between-the-uk-and-the-eu-unbridgeable/

Stripping out the Himalayan quantities of humbug from this statement by Gove, I would say a deal is definitely doable. The UK isn't asking for much and doesn't seem to care much whether it gets a deal or not. It's a frustratingly poor way to negotiate, which will lead to a wasteful and hugely crap outcome. But I guess if we are dropping like flies we won't be very focused on this and I don't think it's likely to be the last word. I have a strong feeling we'll do the sovereignty busting deals sooner or later. If it's later we'll take the damage first.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCCaKu8fIDc&t=2000s

John Crace has the measure of Michael Gove IMO:

https://twitter.com/JohnJCrace/status/1233098948958617601