Not sure he's on good terms with the almighty.... ... otherwise why would Trump have tried to make him the fall guy for this ?
In the very press conference this was announced Pence blew his nose with his hands, not even a hankie, then went on to shake hands with people around him without washing his hands. He appears to have the manners and hygiene sense of a badly-brought up 4 year old.
And they say he's the smart one.
I would say Trump is smarter than Pence
Not saying a lot, is it!
Afternoon all. Kept indoors by heavy rain at the moment but at some point I shall have to go out to the off licence.
You have to look at this response through the eyes of Trump. For him, this isn't a health crisis; it's a stock market (which for him means a political) crisis. That's why he's only bothered to move now. It's also why he thinks all he needs to do is offer reassurance, as per a market panic.
Nipping this virus in the bud by identifying, treating and isolating people as we are doing will keep the dangers down and allow the stocks to recover.
Sticking your head in the sand, saying its all OK then letting the virus go rampant will not allow them to recover by November.
Off the mark in two respects.
Firstly, as the doctor I met yesterday explained, no-one expects that it will be possible to contain the virus, any more. The measures being taken are about buying time, and spreading the peak to try and avoid health services collapsing under peak pressure.
Second, if as looks likely the virus likes northern hemisphere winters and dislikes the summers, November 2020 will turn out to be the very worst time you will want to be holding lots of shares.
Thought people would appreciate Caz's view on the world.
Understandably, in the UK it is the FTSE100 index that makes the headlines, and here the market has fallen back to levels last seen in 2016. In the US though (and we generally have more US than UK equity exposure), the S&P500 is back to the levels of October 2019. Our ‘base case’ is that the virus will delay, but not derail, global economic growth; the potential impact of the virus aside, we feel that the overall state of the global economy looks to be in reasonable shape and there is an expectation of greater fiscal spending globally. Continued large injections of liquidity from central banks should benefit risk assets and we are likely to see a sharp recovery in equities once the pace of contagion is seen to have slowed.
We are not minded to sell any equity exposure, and could well look to add to equities should we see further weakness, although we haven’t yet made that decision. For investors with surplus cash reserves and a long-term perspective, this seems like a good opportunity to start drip feeding cash into global equities.
Not sure he's on good terms with the almighty.... ... otherwise why would Trump have tried to make him the fall guy for this ?
In the very press conference this was announced Pence blew his nose with his hands, not even a hankie, then went on to shake hands with people around him without washing his hands. He appears to have the manners and hygiene sense of a badly-brought up 4 year old.
And they say he's the smart one.
I would say Trump is smarter than Pence
Not saying a lot, is it!
Afternoon all. Kept indoors by heavy rain at the moment but at some point I shall have to go out to the off licence.
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
We’d all be better off if Hunt was PM.
If Hunt were Tory leader Corbyn might now be PM as he would have extended again, not changed the Withdrawal Agreement and the Brexit Party split the Tory vote
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I think Matt Hancock is pretty good - certainly one of the more reliable members of the cabinet. The problem in this case is at a higher level.
I could go with "I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Prime Minister rather than Boris Johnson." (As he came quite close to being)
Stock market corrections are usually due to a change in investor confidence for no particular reason, if I understand correctly and thus are usually unpredictable.
This seems very different. The fall in shares is because of fears about a very real event that's happening now. It's a rational response. Even if the spread of the virus does not become a pandemic, it seems obvious to me that there are going to be serious economic consequences for months ahead.
Spot on
All stock market correction seem different this time. The market falls are sentiment-driven as always. They will rise when sentiment goes in the other direction.
Imagine if the coronavirus mutates... into something WORSE. What an undignified way for humanity to go it would be
School in 19,000,000 AD when cat's ancestors rule the earth "Now we'll examine the homo sapiens species, commonly known as humans. Wiped out 19 million years ago by a killer virus" At the back of the class "What a bunch of losers, at least the dinosaurs had an actual asteroid to contend with"
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against mutations into something better. Thankfully.
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against the strain that doesn't mutate.
"Capital Economics said the rate of economic contraction is now likely to be a staggering 25pc (annualised) over the first quarter - using proxy measures of real activity - a level unseen in modern times. “For much of February, economic activity effectively ceased in China,” said Mark Williams, the group’s chief Asia economist."
25%? Bloody hell.
The boss of Maersk estimated that Chinese factory production halved in February, and I think in Wuhan Province car sales were down over 90%. Even it there is an almost immediate resumption of normal life, which is unlikely, a lot of economies may go into recession.
Yet the “will there be a 2020 US recession” has today gone out from 2.85 to 2.90 on BFE.
"Capital Economics said the rate of economic contraction is now likely to be a staggering 25pc (annualised) over the first quarter - using proxy measures of real activity - a level unseen in modern times. “For much of February, economic activity effectively ceased in China,” said Mark Williams, the group’s chief Asia economist."
25%? Bloody hell.
The boss of Maersk estimated that Chinese factory production halved in February, and I think in Wuhan Province car sales were down over 90%. Even it there is an almost immediate resumption of normal life, which is unlikely, a lot of economies may go into recession.
Yet the “will there be a 2020 US recession” has today gone out from 2.85 to 2.90 on BFE.
Not sure he's on good terms with the almighty.... ... otherwise why would Trump have tried to make him the fall guy for this ?
In the very press conference this was announced Pence blew his nose with his hands, not even a hankie, then went on to shake hands with people around him without washing his hands. He appears to have the manners and hygiene sense of a badly-brought up 4 year old.
And they say he's the smart one.
I would say Trump is smarter than Pence
Not saying a lot, is it!
Afternoon all. Kept indoors by heavy rain at the moment but at some point I shall have to go out to the off licence.
Addiction is a terrible thing.
No, we are all stocking up on vodka to disinfect our hands following @Cyclefree's advice.
Not sure he's on good terms with the almighty.... ... otherwise why would Trump have tried to make him the fall guy for this ?
In the very press conference this was announced Pence blew his nose with his hands, not even a hankie, then went on to shake hands with people around him without washing his hands. He appears to have the manners and hygiene sense of a badly-brought up 4 year old.
And they say he's the smart one.
I would say Trump is smarter than Pence
Not saying a lot, is it!
Afternoon all. Kept indoors by heavy rain at the moment but at some point I shall have to go out to the off licence.
Addiction is a terrible thing.
Habituation, not addiction. We have at least one alcohol-free day during each week.
Packham is a first rate twat. They say he is a "naturalist". He is actually a cameraman and a TV presenter with a Batchelors degree in Zoology and nothing more. The BBC should sack him for breaching impartiality codes
What on earth would you like Packham to be doing about coronavirus? We can't all stop our jobs and...er...think about the virus.
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
We’d all be better off if Hunt was PM.
If Hunt were Tory leader Corbyn might now be PM as he would have extended again and the Brexit Party split the Tory vote
Total tosh. All the evidence indicates the recent election was an anti-Corbyn election. It is odd how as someone who voted Remain you are now so obsessed by Brexit. Let's face it, Hunt would have beaten Corbyn, because anyone could have. "Boris" as you so obsequiously like to call him will hopefully soon have a decent LoTO to call the incompetent oaf to account.
We will start to return to politics as usual hopefully, and eventually the Tory Party will start to realise it needs to return to being broad church and it cannot just be a right wing populist party for swivel-eyed nutters and sycophantic fanbois.
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I think Matt Hancock is pretty good - certainly one of the more reliable members of the cabinet. The problem in this case is at a higher level. I could go with "I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Prime Minister rather than Boris Johnson." (As he came quite close to being)
As well. Hancock does not inspire me with any confidence. Does he understand the problem?
You have to look at this response through the eyes of Trump. For him, this isn't a health crisis; it's a stock market (which for him means a political) crisis. That's why he's only bothered to move now. It's also why he thinks all he needs to do is offer reassurance, as per a market panic.
Nipping this virus in the bud by identifying, treating and isolating people as we are doing will keep the dangers down and allow the stocks to recover.
Sticking your head in the sand, saying its all OK then letting the virus go rampant will not allow them to recover by November.
Off the mark in two respects.
Firstly, as the doctor I met yesterday explained, no-one expects that it will be possible to contain the virus, any more. The measures being taken are about buying time, and spreading the peak to try and avoid health services collapsing under peak pressure.
Second, if as looks likely the virus likes northern hemisphere winters and dislikes the summers, November 2020 will turn out to be the very worst time you will want to be holding lots of shares.
Nope.
Firstly I said "keep dangers down" not "prevent them altogether". The measures I suggested, which we are doing, are not redundant just because we can't contain the virus completely. They permit us to buy time, spread the peak and avoid health service collapses. Remember we are 2 days from the official meteorological start of Spring.
Secondly if the virus likes northern hemisphere winters and dislikes summers then the start of November 2020 is a lot better than other dates. Its autumn not winter. Seasonal flu doesn't normally start until December.
Stock market corrections are usually due to a change in investor confidence for no particular reason, if I understand correctly and thus are usually unpredictable.
This seems very different. The fall in shares is because of fears about a very real event that's happening now. It's a rational response. Even if the spread of the virus does not become a pandemic, it seems obvious to me that there are going to be serious economic consequences for months ahead.
If a whole year of earnings are lost on average , perhaps spread over two years, then rationally the P/E ratio should drop from 13.7 to 12.7 i.e. an 8% fall. The market is already 9% down from its peak at FTSE 7600 but I reckon it will overshoot to say 16% down (FTSE 6100) before it recovers to around present levels. But DYOR
OT Can we please not do doxxing? Maybe they don't mind in this case but if you've got a handle with a known identity you should be able to show up with a different one without people pointing at the one connected to your identity.
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I think Matt Hancock is pretty good - certainly one of the more reliable members of the cabinet. The problem in this case is at a higher level.
Yes, he's not bad. But Jeremy Hunt is much sharper and very good at assessing detail as well as the big picture.
Hancock as Health Secretary being held to account by Hunt as Chair of the Health Select Committee is not a bad combination at all. We've had much worse.
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I think Matt Hancock is pretty good - certainly one of the more reliable members of the cabinet. The problem in this case is at a higher level.
Yes, he's not bad. But Jeremy Hunt is much sharper and very good at assessing detail as well as the big picture.
Also very good under pressure. He seems to have always dealt well with all the media incoming he has received from closeness to Murdochs during phone hacking, years of being health secretary and the constant health crisis / scandals and then foreign secretary.
I would get him off the bench asap and part of the team.
I just got a letter from my health insurer saying they were denying coverage for a test my doctor ordered as “not medically necessary”. It cost $182. However, it seems I won’t have to pay it as my doctor is “in network” and did not warn me it might not be covered or get me to sign a waiver that I would pay for it of not. If he was “out of network” I’d be on the hook for it.
This is why the US needs Medicare For All. Even people like me with excellent health insurance get subject to this BS.
Imagine if the coronavirus mutates... into something WORSE. What an undignified way for humanity to go it would be
School in 19,000,000 AD when cat's ancestors rule the earth "Now we'll examine the homo sapiens species, commonly known as humans. Wiped out 19 million years ago by a killer virus" At the back of the class "What a bunch of losers, at least the dinosaurs had an actual asteroid to contend with"
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against mutations into something better. Thankfully.
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against the strain that doesn't mutate.
Thankfully there does seem to be a trade off between contagion and risk of death.
The perfect virus (in a viruses viewpoint) is very contagious and completely non-lethal.
Imagine if the coronavirus mutates... into something WORSE. What an undignified way for humanity to go it would be
School in 19,000,000 AD when cat's ancestors rule the earth "Now we'll examine the homo sapiens species, commonly known as humans. Wiped out 19 million years ago by a killer virus" At the back of the class "What a bunch of losers, at least the dinosaurs had an actual asteroid to contend with"
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against mutations into something better. Thankfully.
Something worse for us might be something better for the virus.
To my mind that is pretty strong evidence that the sell-off is overdone.
Or that the US stock market has been through a bubble. Even after these falls, the Dow is only given up the gains since last August and is at a level it only *first* reached two years ago.
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I think Matt Hancock is pretty good - certainly one of the more reliable members of the cabinet. The problem in this case is at a higher level.
I could go with "I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Prime Minister rather than Boris Johnson." (As he came quite close to being)
I would be happy for Hunt to return as Health Secretary but I'm quite glad he's not Prime Minister. He would never have gotten Johnson's revised deal, nor been prepared to have Australian style trade as the backup in case we can't get Canadian style.
OT Can we please not do doxxing? Maybe they don't mind in this case but if you've got a handle with a known identity you should be able to show up with a different one without people pointing at the one connected to your identity.
But you also shouldn’t be allowed to use a sock puppet to tell blatant lies about yourself. Or to reappear in the discussion after you’ve just been banned for bad behaviour. Most forums would take a dim view.
"Capital Economics said the rate of economic contraction is now likely to be a staggering 25pc (annualised) over the first quarter - using proxy measures of real activity - a level unseen in modern times. “For much of February, economic activity effectively ceased in China,” said Mark Williams, the group’s chief Asia economist."
25%? Bloody hell.
The boss of Maersk estimated that Chinese factory production halved in February, and I think in Wuhan Province car sales were down over 90%. Even it there is an almost immediate resumption of normal life, which is unlikely, a lot of economies may go into recession.
Yet the “will there be a 2020 US recession” has today gone out from 2.85 to 2.90 on BFE.
I've just backed it at 2.9
When would this market be settled?
Betfair rules: "For the purposes of this market a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth based on rates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). We will only settle once final quarterly revisions have been released by the BEA."
You have to look at this response through the eyes of Trump. For him, this isn't a health crisis; it's a stock market (which for him means a political) crisis. That's why he's only bothered to move now. It's also why he thinks all he needs to do is offer reassurance, as per a market panic.
Nipping this virus in the bud by identifying, treating and isolating people as we are doing will keep the dangers down and allow the stocks to recover.
Sticking your head in the sand, saying its all OK then letting the virus go rampant will not allow them to recover by November.
Off the mark in two respects.
Firstly, as the doctor I met yesterday explained, no-one expects that it will be possible to contain the virus, any more. The measures being taken are about buying time, and spreading the peak to try and avoid health services collapsing under peak pressure.
Second, if as looks likely the virus likes northern hemisphere winters and dislikes the summers, November 2020 will turn out to be the very worst time you will want to be holding lots of shares.
Nope.
Firstly I said "keep dangers down" not "prevent them altogether". The measures I suggested, which we are doing, are not redundant just because we can't contain the virus completely. They permit us to buy time, spread the peak and avoid health service collapses. Remember we are 2 days from the official meteorological start of Spring.
Secondly if the virus likes northern hemisphere winters and dislikes summers then the start of November 2020 is a lot better than other dates. Its autumn not winter. Seasonal flu doesn't normally start until December.
So it’ll be brave to be holding stocks in November, as I said. But DYOR.
OT Can we please not do doxxing? Maybe they don't mind in this case but if you've got a handle with a known identity you should be able to show up with a different one without people pointing at the one connected to your identity.
But you also shouldn’t be allowed to use a sock puppet to tell blatant lies about yourself. Or to reappear in the discussion after you’ve just been banned for bad behaviour. Most forums would take a dim view.
If the blatant lies relate to being an international underpants model, we can probably live with it. Anyway, it might be true.
For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Actually that is 100% diametrically wrong
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
Imagine if the coronavirus mutates... into something WORSE. What an undignified way for humanity to go it would be
School in 19,000,000 AD when cat's ancestors rule the earth "Now we'll examine the homo sapiens species, commonly known as humans. Wiped out 19 million years ago by a killer virus" At the back of the class "What a bunch of losers, at least the dinosaurs had an actual asteroid to contend with"
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against mutations into something better. Thankfully.
Something worse for us might be something better for the virus.
Normally not. Natural selection favours viruses that allow us to continue ‘normal life’, going to work and shopping and meeting and greeting lots of its potential new homes.
Imagine if the coronavirus mutates... into something WORSE. What an undignified way for humanity to go it would be
School in 19,000,000 AD when cat's ancestors rule the earth "Now we'll examine the homo sapiens species, commonly known as humans. Wiped out 19 million years ago by a killer virus" At the back of the class "What a bunch of losers, at least the dinosaurs had an actual asteroid to contend with"
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against mutations into something better. Thankfully.
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against the strain that doesn't mutate.
Thankfully there does seem to be a trade off between contagion and risk of death.
The perfect virus (in a viruses viewpoint) is very contagious and completely non-lethal.
Smallpox had a case fatality rate of 30% and was in business for at least 23 centuries.
For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Actually that is 100% diametrically wrong
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
Against the essentially random short and medium term market swings, yes.
When there is a discrete event that will clearly damage the world economy and take markets down with it, possibly for an extended period, not so much.
Imagine if the coronavirus mutates... into something WORSE. What an undignified way for humanity to go it would be
School in 19,000,000 AD when cat's ancestors rule the earth "Now we'll examine the homo sapiens species, commonly known as humans. Wiped out 19 million years ago by a killer virus" At the back of the class "What a bunch of losers, at least the dinosaurs had an actual asteroid to contend with"
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against mutations into something better. Thankfully.
Something worse for us might be something better for the virus.
Normally not. Natural selection favours viruses that allow us to continue ‘normal life’, going to work and shopping and meeting and greeting lots of its potential new homes.
Yes but Pulpstar was postulating something WORSE i.e. the end of humanity. Of course that would kill the virus as well.
There is no guarantee Liverpool would be crowned Premier League champions if the season was curtailed by the coronavirus, Telegraph Sport can reveal.
There is also no guarantee the bottom three clubs would not be relegated, with no specific regulation in place governing such a scenario.
The rapid spread of the virus has raised the prospect of the Government ordering the cancellation of all sporting events in the UK for more than two months, something that could mean some fixtures never being played.
Were the Premier League season not completed, it is likely crisis talks would take place to determine whether previous results would be allowed to stand or whether the entire campaign was rendered null and void.
Any final ruling could depend on how many fixtures had been played, similar to the results of abandoned matches in some sporting competitions being allowed to stand if a certain percentage of them have been completed.
Imagine if the coronavirus mutates... into something WORSE. What an undignified way for humanity to go it would be
School in 19,000,000 AD when cat's ancestors rule the earth "Now we'll examine the homo sapiens species, commonly known as humans. Wiped out 19 million years ago by a killer virus" At the back of the class "What a bunch of losers, at least the dinosaurs had an actual asteroid to contend with"
Viruses that mutate into something worse struggle to win the natural selection race against mutations into something better. Thankfully.
Something worse for us might be something better for the virus.
Normally not. Natural selection favours viruses that allow us to continue ‘normal life’, going to work and shopping and meeting and greeting lots of its potential new homes.
The weird one was the bacillus responsible for the Black Death, which was on the way to wiping out it's secondary host. IIRC
There is no guarantee Liverpool would be crowned Premier League champions if the season was curtailed by the coronavirus, Telegraph Sport can reveal.
There is also no guarantee the bottom three clubs would not be relegated, with no specific regulation in place governing such a scenario.
The rapid spread of the virus has raised the prospect of the Government ordering the cancellation of all sporting events in the UK for more than two months, something that could mean some fixtures never being played.
Were the Premier League season not completed, it is likely crisis talks would take place to determine whether previous results would be allowed to stand or whether the entire campaign was rendered null and void.
Any final ruling could depend on how many fixtures had been played, similar to the results of abandoned matches in some sporting competitions being allowed to stand if a certain percentage of them have been completed.
There is no guarantee Liverpool would be crowned Premier League champions if the season was curtailed by the coronavirus, Telegraph Sport can reveal.
There is also no guarantee the bottom three clubs would not be relegated, with no specific regulation in place governing such a scenario.
The rapid spread of the virus has raised the prospect of the Government ordering the cancellation of all sporting events in the UK for more than two months, something that could mean some fixtures never being played.
Were the Premier League season not completed, it is likely crisis talks would take place to determine whether previous results would be allowed to stand or whether the entire campaign was rendered null and void.
Any final ruling could depend on how many fixtures had been played, similar to the results of abandoned matches in some sporting competitions being allowed to stand if a certain percentage of them have been completed.
Stock market corrections are usually due to a change in investor confidence for no particular reason, if I understand correctly and thus are usually unpredictable.
This seems very different. The fall in shares is because of fears about a very real event that's happening now. It's a rational response. Even if the spread of the virus does not become a pandemic, it seems obvious to me that there are going to be serious economic consequences for months ahead.
If a whole year of earnings are lost on average , perhaps spread over two years, then rationally the P/E ratio should drop from 13.7 to 12.7 i.e. an 8% fall. The market is already 9% down from its peak at FTSE 7600 but I reckon it will overshoot to say 16% down (FTSE 6100) before it recovers to around present levels. But DYOR
Reducing P/E by 1 doesnt feel quite right instinctively, shouldnt the loss of the current year earnings be very different to future earnings (i.e far bigger share of the PE than 1). Its generally more predictable, more useful, but also will be used as a baseline for future valuations come 2022/2023.
For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Actually that is 100% diametrically wrong
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
Against the essentially random short and medium term market swings, yes.
When there is a discrete event that will clearly damage the world economy and take markets down with it, possibly for an extended period, not so much.
Last week I seem to recall Charles castigating Mr Meeks for his article on Coronavirus. Irresponsible, Charles said. We understand the virus well, he went on.
For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Actually that is 100% diametrically wrong
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
I thought you were saying the other day that your dad sold all his equities before the gfc. How did that work out for his NAV?
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I actually think that’s unfair on Matt Hancock. Yes, he’s a bit trendy figure with a Dad-cringe sense of humour, but I have no reason to doubt his competence. He was Osborne’s understudy for some years and both he and Cameron rated him.
Now, if it were Raab, Patel or Grayling in charge of Health I’d agree with you.
For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Actually that is 100% diametrically wrong
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
Against the essentially random short and medium term market swings, yes.
When there is a discrete event that will clearly damage the world economy and take markets down with it, possibly for an extended period, not so much.
I do both, have left share portfolio alone (possibly incorrectly) but have bought some puts on indices to cushion the blow, which I view as a mix of gambling and hedging.
There is no guarantee Liverpool would be crowned Premier League champions if the season was curtailed by the coronavirus, Telegraph Sport can reveal.
There is also no guarantee the bottom three clubs would not be relegated, with no specific regulation in place governing such a scenario.
The rapid spread of the virus has raised the prospect of the Government ordering the cancellation of all sporting events in the UK for more than two months, something that could mean some fixtures never being played.
Were the Premier League season not completed, it is likely crisis talks would take place to determine whether previous results would be allowed to stand or whether the entire campaign was rendered null and void.
Any final ruling could depend on how many fixtures had been played, similar to the results of abandoned matches in some sporting competitions being allowed to stand if a certain percentage of them have been completed.
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
Whilst I agree with your general point, I do think this oft-repeated stuff about 'missing the N best performing days' is utter garbage. No-one could conceivably manage to arrange things so as to get out of equities the evening before the best days and go back in the morning after them, on any trading strategy. Plus you could make exactly the inverse argument about missing the worst-performing days: if you managed that, you'd be a genius investor (transaction costs aside, of course). It's just not a realistic scenario at all.
There is no guarantee Liverpool would be crowned Premier League champions if the season was curtailed by the coronavirus, Telegraph Sport can reveal.
There is also no guarantee the bottom three clubs would not be relegated, with no specific regulation in place governing such a scenario.
The rapid spread of the virus has raised the prospect of the Government ordering the cancellation of all sporting events in the UK for more than two months, something that could mean some fixtures never being played.
Were the Premier League season not completed, it is likely crisis talks would take place to determine whether previous results would be allowed to stand or whether the entire campaign was rendered null and void.
Any final ruling could depend on how many fixtures had been played, similar to the results of abandoned matches in some sporting competitions being allowed to stand if a certain percentage of them have been completed.
For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Actually that is 100% diametrically wrong
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I actually think that’s unfair on Matt Hancock. Yes, he’s a bit trendy figure with a Dad-cringe sense of humour, but I have no reason to doubt his competence. He was Osborne’s understudy for some years and both he and Cameron rated him.
Now, if it were Raab, Patel or Grayling in charge of Health I’d agree with you.
I might have committed Seppuku already.
He looked petrified on tv this morning. I think he may doubt himself.
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I actually think that’s unfair on Matt Hancock. Yes, he’s a bit trendy figure with a Dad-cringe sense of humour, but I have no reason to doubt his competence. He was Osborne’s understudy for some years and both he and Cameron rated him.
Now, if it were Raab, Patel or Grayling in charge of Health I’d agree with you.
I might have committed Seppuku already.
He looked petrified on tv this morning. I think he may doubt himself.
I've often thought that education should be in the investment column, not current spending. It is an investment in the future. Many companies capitalise their R&D. Health - less of a case, in fact, no case.
There is no guarantee Liverpool would be crowned Premier League champions if the season was curtailed by the coronavirus, Telegraph Sport can reveal.
There is also no guarantee the bottom three clubs would not be relegated, with no specific regulation in place governing such a scenario.
The rapid spread of the virus has raised the prospect of the Government ordering the cancellation of all sporting events in the UK for more than two months, something that could mean some fixtures never being played.
Were the Premier League season not completed, it is likely crisis talks would take place to determine whether previous results would be allowed to stand or whether the entire campaign was rendered null and void.
Any final ruling could depend on how many fixtures had been played, similar to the results of abandoned matches in some sporting competitions being allowed to stand if a certain percentage of them have been completed.
You can just about argue education is investment (it will mainly be spent on children of whom 80-90% will stay in the UK and 20-30% will one day get good jobs returning lots of tax to the exchequer) but it’s hard to say Health is.
A whopping great proportion of the Health budget is keeping the economically unproductive and non-working elderly alive*.
(*i don’t say that to be callous - only to make a point about investment returns)
Baker McKenzie have sent everyone home from their London office.
PB is still drastically underestimating the scale of all this.
Baker McKenzie has shut its London office due to a suspected outbreak of the coronavirus infection.
The law firm shuttered the 100 New Bridge Street office on Thursday afternoon as a pre-emptive measure, sending home more than 1,100 people.
RollOnFriday understands a person working at Baker McKenzie recently returned from northern Italy and is now unwell. Sources said the firm will make a decision on Sunday whether to re-open on Monday.
In a statement the firm told RollOnFriday, “Our priority is the health and wellbeing of our people and our clients and we have asked our London office employees to work from home for the time being while we are taking precautionary measures in response to a potential case of the COVID-19.”
”We have a well-established agile working programme - including sophisticated technology and IT systems for home working - which allows us to take these precautionary measures without impacting our client service delivery.”
“We continue to closely monitor the situation and are following the advice and guidance issued by the Government and Public Health England.”
God, I thought Gordon Brown was thankfully done with. How the hell does he come back disguised as a nominally Conservative government?
There’s a very obvious way for the LDs to outflank the Conservatives now.
They need to go dry on economics and stand on a platform of rejoining the single market and EEA-EFTA (which will mean not getting too excited and go 100% for rejoin + euro + Uber migration).
They’ll also need to tone down the weirder aspects of their ultra social liberalism.
Such an approach might actually net them 50-60 seats.
For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Actually that is 100% diametrically wrong
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
That’s exactly my strategy.
It works, most of the time. A global crisis is the exception, so it’s best to keep an eye out in case you see one coming.
. No-one could conceivably manage to arrange things so as to get out of equities the evening before the best days and go back in the morning after them, on any trading strategy.
I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Health Secretary rather than Matt Hancock.
I actually think that’s unfair on Matt Hancock. Yes, he’s a bit trendy figure with a Dad-cringe sense of humour, but I have no reason to doubt his competence. He was Osborne’s understudy for some years and both he and Cameron rated him.
Now, if it were Raab, Patel or Grayling in charge of Health I’d agree with you.
I might have committed Seppuku already.
He looked petrified on tv this morning. I think he may doubt himself.
I think he always looks a bit like that to be fair.
You can just about argue education is investment (it will mainly be spent on children of whom 80-90% will stay in the UK and 20-30% will one day get good jobs returning lots of tax to the exchequer) but it’s hard to say Health is.
A whopping great proportion of the Health budget is keeping the economically unproductive and non-working elderly alive*.
(*i don’t say that to be callous - only to make a point about investment returns)
Nah, there's only one useful difference between investment and current spending, and that is whether it is lumpy. In company accounts, it is sensible to spread the cost of some big purchase of capital equipment over several years, because otherwise you get a distorted picture in the year you incur the expenditure. On the other hand, spending which you are going to incur every year is not investment.
For this reason, I am suspicious of the usefulness of the distinction at all in national accounts, because at central government level there is so much regular capital expenditure that it's really just routine yearly stuff: for example, you build new schools every year.
I've often thought that education should be in the investment column, not current spending. It is an investment in the future. Many companies capitalise their R&D. Health - less of a case, in fact, no case.
On such a basis the Budget Deficits for earlier Financial Years would be significantly reduced - and the case for Osborne's Austerity policies further weakened.
Also, Richard Nabavi chortling and scoffing at me and saying "meh, this is not news, a couple of deaths in Europe"
I pointed out to him that this comment might age as well as Roger's, on day one of the Great Recession, when he said "this will all be forgotten by Friday".
Incidentally, I am not SeanT, etc
No, you can't be SeanT, because he had a good grasp of English. You on the other hand failed 100% to understand the very simple point I was making: the distinction between something being important, and something being front-page news.
Baker McKenzie have sent everyone home from their London office.
PB is still drastically underestimating the scale of all this.
Baker McKenzie has shut its London office due to a suspected outbreak of the coronavirus infection.
The law firm shuttered the 100 New Bridge Street office on Thursday afternoon as a pre-emptive measure, sending home more than 1,100 people.
RollOnFriday understands a person working at Baker McKenzie recently returned from northern Italy and is now unwell. Sources said the firm will make a decision on Sunday whether to re-open on Monday.
In a statement the firm told RollOnFriday, “Our priority is the health and wellbeing of our people and our clients and we have asked our London office employees to work from home for the time being while we are taking precautionary measures in response to a potential case of the COVID-19.”
”We have a well-established agile working programme - including sophisticated technology and IT systems for home working - which allows us to take these precautionary measures without impacting our client service delivery.”
“We continue to closely monitor the situation and are following the advice and guidance issued by the Government and Public Health England.”
I think it's time for a new political party in this country: the Anti-Doom-and-Gloom Party. (At one time you could argue the Liberals were such a party).
You can just about argue education is investment (it will mainly be spent on children of whom 80-90% will stay in the UK and 20-30% will one day get good jobs returning lots of tax to the exchequer) but it’s hard to say Health is.
A whopping great proportion of the Health budget is keeping the economically unproductive and non-working elderly alive*.
(*i don’t say that to be callous - only to make a point about investment returns)
Nah, there's only one useful difference between investment and current spending, and that is whether it is lumpy. In company accounts, it is sensible to spread the cost of some big purchase of capital equipment over several years, because otherwise you get a distorted picture in the year you incur the expenditure. On the other hand, spending which you are going to incur every year is not investment.
For this reason, I am suspicious of the usefulness of the distinction at all in national accounts, because at central government level there is so much regular capital expenditure that it's really just routine yearly stuff: for example, you build new schools every year.
Yes, there is an accounting definition.
But I am simply describing investment in its purest sense: the Government pays some money out in one year (raised from taxes) and some years later reaps a positive return adjusted for things like inflation (enhanced tax revenue) due to the wisdom or not of spending it wisely in the first place.
Of course, it’s perfectly possible (probably easy) to spunk money away in education - e.g on wage inflation and unnecessarily over spec’ed new buildings - in which case it most definitely isn’t unless you’re retaining very good teachers you’d otherwise have lost and enhancing the ability of children to commit and focus.
That’s very second order and difficult to prove of course.
I was criticised earlier for conjecturing what they might be, but I believe they are useful, indeed necessary.
Imagine a patient with gangrene in his little toe. The doctor comes along, examines him, and says "The best treatment might be to chop off the leg."
At this point the patient says, What the hell, why would you do that?
The doctor replies: Because if I don't things could get really bad.
The patient will then ask: OK, how bad, what's the worst case scenario?
If the doctor replies, "there's a 1% chance of the gangrene spreading and killing you", the patient will make an informed choice to refuse the amputation. If the doctor says "there's a 90% chance of the gangrene spreading and killing you.", the patient will reluctantly accept the amputation.
Putting the country into Wuham style lockdown will be horribly painful and cause serious damage - like an amputation. But if there is a realistic worst case scenario of mass death and a 70% infection rate, etc etc, if we DON'T do this, then Britain will reluctantly accept this severe restriction.
The government needs to start levelling with the voters. Brutal honesty is the only way.
Nah, there's only one useful difference between investment and current spending, and that is whether it is lumpy. In company accounts, it is sensible to spread the cost of some big purchase of capital equipment over several years, because otherwise you get a distorted picture in the year you incur the expenditure. On the other hand, spending which you are going to incur every year is not investment.
For this reason, I am suspicious of the usefulness of the distinction at all in national accounts, because at central government level there is so much regular capital expenditure that it's really just routine yearly stuff: for example, you build new schools every year.
I agree. There should be no distinction made in government spending between "current" and "investment". It's all spending. The only material consequence of having the two categories is that it allows manipulation.
Comments
Afternoon all. Kept indoors by heavy rain at the moment but at some point I shall have to go out to the off licence.
Firstly, as the doctor I met yesterday explained, no-one expects that it will be possible to contain the virus, any more. The measures being taken are about buying time, and spreading the peak to try and avoid health services collapsing under peak pressure.
Second, if as looks likely the virus likes northern hemisphere winters and dislikes the summers, November 2020 will turn out to be the very worst time you will want to be holding lots of shares.
Understandably, in the UK it is the FTSE100 index that makes the headlines, and here the market has fallen back to levels last seen in 2016. In the US though (and we generally have more US than UK equity exposure), the S&P500 is back to the levels of October 2019. Our ‘base case’ is that the virus will delay, but not derail, global economic growth; the potential impact of the virus aside, we feel that the overall state of the global economy looks to be in reasonable shape and there is an expectation of greater fiscal spending globally. Continued large injections of liquidity from central banks should benefit risk assets and we are likely to see a sharp recovery in equities once the pace of contagion is seen to have slowed.
We are not minded to sell any equity exposure, and could well look to add to equities should we see further weakness, although we haven’t yet made that decision. For investors with surplus cash reserves and a long-term perspective, this seems like a good opportunity to start drip feeding cash into global equities.
I could go with "I can't help feeling that we'd all be safer if Jeremy Hunt were Prime Minister rather than Boris Johnson." (As he came quite close to being)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1233372009427587073?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1233372006462230528?s=20
[You see, I can write fantasy as well as the current Tory Party).
We will start to return to politics as usual hopefully, and eventually the Tory Party will start to realise it needs to return to being broad church and it cannot just be a right wing populist party for swivel-eyed nutters and sycophantic fanbois.
To my mind that is pretty strong evidence that the sell-off is overdone.
Firstly I said "keep dangers down" not "prevent them altogether". The measures I suggested, which we are doing, are not redundant just because we can't contain the virus completely. They permit us to buy time, spread the peak and avoid health service collapses. Remember we are 2 days from the official meteorological start of Spring.
Secondly if the virus likes northern hemisphere winters and dislikes summers then the start of November 2020 is a lot better than other dates. Its autumn not winter. Seasonal flu doesn't normally start until December.
I would get him off the bench asap and part of the team.
This is why the US needs Medicare For All. Even people like me with excellent health insurance get subject to this BS.
The perfect virus (in a viruses viewpoint) is very contagious and completely non-lethal.
"For the purposes of this market a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth based on rates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). We will only settle once final quarterly revisions have been released by the BEA."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/28/press-tom-watson-peerage-labour-lords-rupert-murdoch
Cliffnotes - Its all the evil press trying to stop him because of phone hacking.
You should buy and hold. Don’t try to work the market. Fidelity has a famous study that says something like if you missed only the 30 performing days in a year the equity market return would be less than debt
Buy - drip feed - and hold. Trade infrequently.
Don’t look at the market from day to day
Be patient. Be calm. Be disciplined. Doing nothing is usually better than doing something
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1233316630551289856
When there is a discrete event that will clearly damage the world economy and take markets down with it, possibly for an extended period, not so much.
IIRC
No further comment necessary.
Now, if it were Raab, Patel or Grayling in charge of Health I’d agree with you.
I might have committed Seppuku already.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTKopeQhiDo
PB is still drastically underestimating the scale of all this.
A whopping great proportion of the Health budget is keeping the economically unproductive and non-working elderly alive*.
(*i don’t say that to be callous - only to make a point about investment returns)
The law firm shuttered the 100 New Bridge Street office on Thursday afternoon as a pre-emptive measure, sending home more than 1,100 people.
RollOnFriday understands a person working at Baker McKenzie recently returned from northern Italy and is now unwell. Sources said the firm will make a decision on Sunday whether to re-open on Monday.
In a statement the firm told RollOnFriday, “Our priority is the health and wellbeing of our people and our clients and we have asked our London office employees to work from home for the time being while we are taking precautionary measures in response to a potential case of the COVID-19.”
”We have a well-established agile working programme - including sophisticated technology and IT systems for home working - which allows us to take these precautionary measures without impacting our client service delivery.”
“We continue to closely monitor the situation and are following the advice and guidance issued by the Government and Public Health England.”
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-baker-mckenzie-shuts-london-office-after-suspected-coronavirus-outbreak
They need to go dry on economics and stand on a platform of rejoining the single market and EEA-EFTA (which will mean not getting too excited and go 100% for rejoin + euro + Uber migration).
They’ll also need to tone down the weirder aspects of their ultra social liberalism.
Such an approach might actually net them 50-60 seats.
I knew you were one of our most senior posters but that is remarkable. Hats off to you.
For this reason, I am suspicious of the usefulness of the distinction at all in national accounts, because at central government level there is so much regular capital expenditure that it's really just routine yearly stuff: for example, you build new schools every year.
Damn - those words are relatively common.....
That 'reclassifying' story is bullshit. I'm going to reclassify chocolate bars as vegetables and enjoy my suddenly healthier diet.
But I am simply describing investment in its purest sense: the Government pays some money out in one year (raised from taxes) and some years later reaps a positive return adjusted for things like inflation (enhanced tax revenue) due to the wisdom or not of spending it wisely in the first place.
Of course, it’s perfectly possible (probably easy) to spunk money away in education - e.g on wage inflation and unnecessarily over spec’ed new buildings - in which case it most definitely isn’t unless you’re retaining very good teachers you’d otherwise have lost and enhancing the ability of children to commit and focus.
That’s very second order and difficult to prove of course.