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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For election junkies a great new resource from the House of Co
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For election junkies a great new resource from the House of Commons Library
I suspect many PBers are like me always wanting to check details of past elections usually in order to make a point about a current situation. Well there is a great downloadable resource just out from the Commons library which has data on UK elections going back a whole century and presenting it in an attractive way.
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In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Being scared is natural. We are all scared. Every sane solider in war is scared.
That’s not what courage or stoicism is: it’s when you put on a brave face and carry on even though you’re scared. You've thought about it, considered it, and know it, but you put it to the back of your mind so you can carry on.
You seem to think the only honest way to behave is to openly emote to everyone else your fears. Everyone feels the same way, and it doesn’t help. It just pisses people off and undermines their resilience.
It’s a good job you’re not a leader. You’d be shite. If it were up to me I’d temporarily ban you until you learned to dial down the panic because you can’t seem to help yourself.
Sorry.
This is really serious now.
PB is not at its best when moonlighting as an investment forum, so I will just say this and leave it there: the fact that a market has halved doesn't by any means guarantee it will not halve again. The big swinging dick stuff about blood on the streets, others are fearful etc is useless because it doesn't specify how fearful, or how much blood. Going back into this market before it has stabilised for a minimum of six months might make you a fortune but it iwould be a very, very, very high risk thing to do.
Please provide citations - along with estimates of the likelihood of those numbers being accurate.
60% infected as a worst case scenario is credible, albeit unlikely, but combined with that mortality rate ? I have not seen any epidemiologist say that.
One fact we do have is that twelve Brits spent an entire holiday holed up in a ski chalet with a carrier, in cold weather, and without taking any precautions whatsoever, since none of them had any idea.
At the end of their holiday a majority (just) of them did not get the disease. So talk of 70% appears way off.
Went a bit off Sportsbook when they didn't pay me out for backing Hamilton because he started in the pit lane (I did get a little but not what I should've).
"Hundreds of Syrian refugees in Turkey have begun preparing to travel towards the country’s borders with Greece and Bulgaria after Ankara’s sudden decision to no longer impede their passage to Europe.
The move comes after an airstrike on Thursday night in Syria’s Idlib province killed at least 33 Turkish soldiers recently deployed to support the Syrian opposition in the face of a blistering Russian-backed Syrian government offensive.
Turkish police, coastguard and border security officials were ordered to stand down overnight on Thursday, Turkish officials briefed reporters."
This has potentially huge ramifications for Europe, at a time already of anxiety over Brexit and the Coronavirus.
Of course you can bet that way, and some people do.
But there are opportunities for money to be made by anticipating trends, trying to judge when particular positions are overbought or oversold, and very many PB'ers trade the political markets that way. The same is true of financial markets.
I'm sure many of us remember the day after the Brexit result - his fears kicked Project Fear into the shade - and he'd actually voted for Brexit.
If you want to gamble then absolutely good luck to you. Opportunities are available from gambling but in the long term unless you're well above an average punter the opportunities lie better for the bookmaker than the punter.
If you want to invest for the long term future then that is a different matter.
And the real trouble with Philip's thumb-up-bum approach is if there's a big market correction. It only works if you play the long term gain and assume that prices will always rise over, say, a five year on five year basis.
This situation may be so hard-hitting that the global economy, and with it the markets, may not recover this side of 2025.
For most people, the vast majority, buy and hold or give your money to Crispin Odey or Fido is not only practical it is the only realistic way to play the markets.
If you do this all day and it's all you do then where is your fund? Your frictional costs are likely killing you anyway.
And as for calling this latest correction right - are you one of those people like @eadric who have correctly forecast nine out of the last three market pullbacks?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/27/huge-crowds-expected-for-greta-thunberg-visit-to-bristol
South Korea and Italy will give a much better bound on what would be most likely to happen here, assuming we're approximately as competent in responding as they are.
https://twitter.com/mark_mclaughlin/status/1233333938552176642?s=20
Please show me where one has drawn this conclusion.
No-one was paying any attention, of course.
I'm talking about the long term investments as opposed to short term investments or gambling. If your investments are not scheduled to reach maturity until the 2030s or 2040s or later then that is the other side of 2025.
Bloody Attlee. And f*&$ing Blair!
I'll glance at the report too.
He's running up and down the street in his pyjamas screaming of imminent doom. And everyone in the street has heard the same screams multiple times before.
I did people the favour of providing a calm assessment on Monday morning (and indeed over the weekend), before markets opened, of what I expected this week, and what I intended to do about it.
I know which I'd prefer to receive.
According to the Chinese (I know, I know) there were 313 new cases confirmed in Wuhan yesterday and the numbers are on a declining trend. A 70% infection rate is not a worst case scenario, its a total fantasy.
Nice to see them not using fossil fuels wasted on a speech in the rain...
Oh wait..
For me, the rational reason to be concerned is not so much the health aspects but the measures that may be needed to control the health aspects. Major disruption to life and potentially a huge economic hit.
So yesterday was going 'Oh my God look at this!!' helpful in anyway? Genuine question.
The way we conduct ourselves now is important. Even on here. Everyone has their part to play.
The time for waking people is done. The time now is for evidence and clear thinking.
It's the wild upper end of a considerable range of scenarios, with some relatively tame ones at the wild lower end. And every expert pronouncing on this right now is careful - unlike you - to add in all the caveats and uncertainties that mean that they don't really know.
It would make sense for citizens not to behave like nitwits though. Having mass meetings with people travelling from round the globe at a time like this is pretty daft.
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mans-anger-bookies-after-error-21595097?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
The abstract value of the free £5 bet is about £3.33 - given Fury was just around evens prefight; Coral's offer is generous.
Fortunately a lot of my assets are in cash.
So I will have to try and continue working, even in the recession which is coming. Fun times, eh!
Anyway, Daughter - having recovered - has got me face masks and pretty much ordered me to self-isolate (which I am more or less doing) on the grounds, as she put it so eloquently yesterday: “You’re not young, not as fit as you should be and have crap lungs.”
Out of the mouths of babes .....!
We shall see of course whether this is received well or badly by voters.
Not one postulated by anyone qualified to do so.
Nice one, thanks for taking that in good faith.
From our interactions yesterday. It does indeed sound like the FDA/CDC have had a fuck up. I'm sure they will get their shit together soon. But I have to couch everything I say about the US with uncertainty, I know nothing about it really.
In its initial stagaes it was very difficult to get reliable data on the outbreak because the government was undoubtedy restricting information and silencing whistleblowers.
Even now we have no idea if the official figues from Wuhan are correct or doctored.
Indeed, one of the long term effects of this is a surely a debate about how we deal with China.
It seems right now that anything can be excused because of its size and power. We can now see the drawbacks of that policy.
And as for face masks - I thought they protected those around you from you, not the other way round,
When asked about the lethality of the disease, Dr. Bassetti said, "It's at 2.3% in Hubei, the Chinese epicenter of the epidemic. In that area the health system has collapsed, some patients have been treated in hospital, others in gyms, others in caravans. In the rest of China lethality is at 0.3%, while outside Asia the figure is between 0.4% and 0.8%. "
He said many of the statistics are comparing apples and oranges, because, "people who tested positive for Covid-19, after they died are included in the statistics even when the real cause of death was something else."
I am not seeking to trivialise this, not at all. If 5% of the UK population get this and 2% of them die that's 65k people. The economic consequences of the steps we would need to take to keep it to that are going to be seriously adverse. It is likely that globalisation is going to take two or three backward steps before progress is going to be resumed. I think you are right to highlight this, it is by far the most important thing going on at the moment, Brexit is a trivial sideshow by comparison.
But calm down.
Also of course from a practical view point, people didn't move around anywhere near as much.
https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1232737097892667392
Bonus points to the first candidate to change their surname to Aardvark at the first opportunity.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1233346106181832706?s=20
World War II Britain and America I suppose are an exception, but I'm not sure I'd describe the wartime coalition and propaganda as totalitarian.
Re pensions, they’ve done ok. But don’t know figure off top of my head. Have a mixture of final salary and money purchase schemes and have put off claiming them while I can still earn.
I am not going to react to day to day events. I have an advisor to guide me. It is worrying but I try to keep a cool head in a crisis.
The FT letter helps put a perspective on it. So do the comparisions with other risks such as road accidents.
There are experts working very hard on all aspects of this threat such as vaccines, new tests, control mechanisms, health resources etc. For the ordiunary citizen the thing to do is take sensible precautions, avoid crowds where possible, wash your hands and if you get symptoms self-isolate. But don't panic and don't encourage others to panic.
The economic damage I suspect will be greater than the health damage and it will be fuelled by panic.
Good for you selling out the FT at 7400. It doesn't make me feel any better.
The judgement doesn't imply an end to all infrastructure investment of all sorts.
Thought of trying it on a wider audience?
"Capital Economics said the rate of economic contraction is now likely to be a staggering 25pc (annualised) over the first quarter - using proxy measures of real activity - a level unseen in modern times. “For much of February, economic activity effectively ceased in China,” said Mark Williams, the group’s chief Asia economist."
25%? Bloody hell.
But I do know about health data, epidemiology and statistics and to some extent infectious disease modelling. I'm afraid you are wrong on this.
https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1233149899446857729?s=20