politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts
Comments
-
Tim Montgmorie - "Patrick Mercer must resign. The people of Newark deserve an MP who represents them actively in Parliament":
https://mobile.twitter.com/TimMontgomerie0 -
BBC 6 O'Clock news - Robinson doing his vox pop on Euros & immigration - white crowd at Beverly Race Course mainly believed it is 'too high' - as did the ethnically from the Indian sub-continent Brits in Leeds......0
-
Patrick Mercer to make statement at 1915 on College Green.0
-
Easy of England - plenty of Argo immigrants. Farage nailed on to win surely ?0
-
They couldn't push the writ quick enough to have it on the same day as the locals, surely?0
-
Boris v Nigel That would be fun.CarlottaVance said:James Lansdale on 6 o'clock news about Mercer - Farage has said he would 'seriously think' about standing in bye election if one was held....
Time for Farage to Man Up.0 -
Not a chance. If one went for it the other would not stand.TheWatcher said:
Boris v Nigel That would be fun.CarlottaVance said:James Lansdale on 6 o'clock news about Mercer - Farage has said he would 'seriously think' about standing in bye election if one was held....
0 -
As I posted earlier , it is too late already for May 22nd or indeed May 29th .RobD said:They couldn't push the writ quick enough to have it on the same day as the locals, surely?
0 -
Not possible. The number of days required between the writ being moved and the election being held was increased from 17 to 25 just a few days ago (not including Sundays and bank holidays).RobD said:They couldn't push the writ quick enough to have it on the same day as the locals, surely?
0 -
Buffoon vs. Fruitcake. Who will win?TheWatcher said:
Boris v Nigel That would be fun.CarlottaVance said:James Lansdale on 6 o'clock news about Mercer - Farage has said he would 'seriously think' about standing in bye election if one was held....
Time for Farage to Man Up.
0 -
What is Mensch on about then saying it'd detract from UKIPs performance at the Euros?MarkSenior said:
As I posted earlier , it is too late already for May 22nd or indeed May 29th .RobD said:They couldn't push the writ quick enough to have it on the same day as the locals, surely?
Thanks too, AndyJS.
0 -
From the excellent Election Data:
Election-data @election_data ·2 mins
Map showing the likely reception for @UKIP in Newark, should Patrick Mercer force a by-election: (it's pretty good) pic.twitter.com/xBCv693RrL0 -
The Sun is well-known as a bastion of support for the Liberal Democrats.MikeK said:
UKIP supporters will recognise the principle at work here: the mainstream media are engaged in a feeding frenzy against UKIP, and are prepared to twist the facts to suit their agenda. It seems that prejudice and hostility are alive and well at the Sun. This journalist’s boss is (I assume) the Sun’s Political Editor Tom Newton Dunn, the son of Bill Newton Dunn, the Lib-Dem MEP whose seat is under threat in the East Midlands.0 -
***** Betting Post *****
Hills have allowed me a score at odds of 7/2 against UKIP winning a by-election before the General Election.
I will be very surprised if these odds are still available tomorrow morning but DYOR!0 -
I suspect it has a lot to do with the relative size of the black economy back then and the fact that you could not get any kind of welfare payments until you had worked, so the young did not actually appear in the numbers.rcs1000 said:
What I find fascinating for Spain is that unemployment numbers are so much higher than in 1990, yet the proportion of people over the age of 16 in work is also higher.SouthamObserver said:@RCS - all the info on unemployment in Spain. Figures today indicate that while the number of people signing on has fallen very slightly, so has the number of people in work. It seems that any gains Spain makes are going to be largely based on productivity gains, which for the long term is probably a very good thing:
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/04/29/media/1398776277_178997.html
0 -
I'd guess it'd replace the Euros as the last political result and she thinks they'd lose and move the narrative more to doubts they can repeat success at westminsterRobD said:
What is Mensch on about then saying it'd detract from UKIPs performance at the Euros?MarkSenior said:
As I posted earlier , it is too late already for May 22nd or indeed May 29th .RobD said:They couldn't push the writ quick enough to have it on the same day as the locals, surely?
Thanks too, AndyJS.0 -
Rentoul
@JohnRentoul: Ladbrokes already offering 2/1 against UKIP to take Newark if there's a by election, Farage 5/1 to stand.0 -
Re Lib Dem losses , 350 is much too high an estimate .
They are defending
Non Met and Unitary councils circa 330 seats . A similar performance to 2012 would see them lose approx 100 or 2013 approx 80 .
Met councils 129 seats . A performance as in 2012 would see them lose 58
London councils 243 seats . A loss of 40 to 50% ( which would be very poor ) would see them lose 100 to 120 seats .
Net loss overall should be in the range 240 to 280 .0 -
Let's hope Farage runs and wins. We all need a good laugh, and the reaction of "mainstream" politicians to the arrival of "lets all call them racists" will be hilarious0
-
From 157 of the 161 councils up, I have them defending 632 seats, and I don't think the four I haven't tallied are LD strongholds. So the losses may be even fewer.MarkSenior said:Re Lib Dem losses , 350 is much too high an estimate .
They are defending
Non Met and Unitary councils circa 330 seats . A similar performance to 2012 would see them lose approx 100 or 2013 approx 80 .
Met councils 129 seats . A performance as in 2012 would see them lose 58
London councils 243 seats . A loss of 40 to 50% ( which would be very poor ) would see them lose 100 to 120 seats .
Net loss overall should be in the range 240 to 280 .
Oops, changed 159->157 and 163->1610 -
According to that map the town of Newark would be unreceptive to UKIP.antifrank said:From the excellent Election Data:
Election-data @election_data ·2 mins
Map showing the likely reception for @UKIP in Newark, should Patrick Mercer force a by-election: (it's pretty good) pic.twitter.com/xBCv693RrL
In last year's local elections they polled as follows:
Newark East: 18.4%
Newark West: 14.8%
Balderton: 22.1%0 -
Mercer resigns as per Sun
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 1m
BREAKING: Patrick Mercer has quit as a Tory MP.0 -
norman smith @BBCNormanS 1m
No 10 say believe likely Newark by election will have to be held after European elections0 -
Sun reporting that he has actually quit.0
-
Not sure how he quits as a Tory MP, when he isn't one. He resigned that months ago..still looks like fun and games ahead and headache for Cameron.Tissue_Price said:Mercer resigns as per Sun
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 1m
BREAKING: Patrick Mercer has quit as a Tory MP.0 -
It's a fact that it has to be held after the Euro elections.Tissue_Price said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 1m
No 10 say believe likely Newark by election will have to be held after European elections0 -
Presumably if the Sun did tape the call with Roger Helmer they will publish a transcript and, indeed, let us hear the call and we can judge for ourselves whether he said the things attributed to him.
Regardless of what the truth is in this case, I wish the mainstream papers were more willing to identify and campaign against speakers who really do wish harm to gay people and seek to disseminate their views amongst the young - http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/universities-must-not-host-hardline-islamist-extremists/0 -
If Boris is serious, now is his chance. Nice safe rural seat on the fast line to London.
0 -
BBC confirms Mercer standing down.0
-
@bbcnickrobinson: Mercer gone. By-election on. Waiting for @Nigel_Farage to decide whether will stand. Then standby for campaign to draft Boris ?0
-
@bbclaurak: Odds on Farage standing in Newark? Against Boris?! Westminster village fantasy election ....not, I repeat not, reporting that0
-
If Farage stands he really has to win. It's a very big call for him.0
-
I don't think he'll want to stand against Boris.SouthamObserver said:If Farage stands he really has to win. It's a very big call for him.
0 -
Speccie has Mercer story too:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/patrick-mercer-quits-as-mp/
If the Tories have any sense (????- ed.) they will move the writ ASAP to capitalise on UKIP disorganisation.0 -
If Boris wants to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM, a CV which included winning the mayoralty of London twice, including once when the party was unpopular nationally, followed by seeing off Farage in Newark, would be pretty unassailable.
Jus' sayin'0 -
UK News @UKNewsOne 1h
Patrick Mercer 'banned from Parliament for six months' following lobbying scandal: MP for Newark Patrick Merce... http://bit.ly/1u0fEu7
Coffee House @Spectator_CH 3m
Patrick Mercer quits as MP and triggers awkward by-election in Newark http://specc.ie/1pKMW0H
Foptastic!
LOL0 -
If Bozza stands, can we have a special mayoral election in London, or else annex Newark as rural exclave? We could give it the postcode N100 and build loads of houses near Northgate station.
Sorted.0 -
I don't think Boris will want to stand in Newark, and with any chance at all of defeat.corporeal said:
I don't think he'll want to stand against Boris.SouthamObserver said:If Farage stands he really has to win. It's a very big call for him.
0 -
Newark is too far from London for Boris.0
-
I thought you opposed his leading the party Richard?Richard_Nabavi said:If Boris wants to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM, a CV which included winning the mayoralty of London twice, including once when the party was unpopular nationally, followed by seeing off Farage in Newark, would be pretty unassailable.
Jus' sayin'0 -
He wouldn't have any risk of defeat unless his opponent were Farage. And that might be a risk worth seizing.Quincel said:
I don't think Boris will want to stand in Newark, and with any chance at all of defeat.corporeal said:
I don't think he'll want to stand against Boris.SouthamObserver said:If Farage stands he really has to win. It's a very big call for him.
On the other hand, Farage would have too much to lose.
0 -
Press conf. with Mercer coming up shortly.
Should be entertaining viewing for Cammie.
0 -
I was looking at it from his point of view.BobaFett said:
I thought you opposed his leading the party Richard?Richard_Nabavi said:If Boris wants to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM, a CV which included winning the mayoralty of London twice, including once when the party was unpopular nationally, followed by seeing off Farage in Newark, would be pretty unassailable.
Jus' sayin'
My view is that I'm really not sure about him. He might be brilliant, but it's a high-risk kind of brilliance.
Also, there is a problemette that he's not terribly popular outside the Tory heartlands of the South.0 -
By-election ahead, yay!0
-
Patrick Mercer has never knowingly done David Cameron a favour and he hasn't started now.
If Boris stands, I can't see him losing. He would make the seat inkipperble.0 -
If Mercer had resigned just a couple of weeks ago, the by-election could have been held on the same day as the Euro elections.0
-
Matt Worrall @healthmatt 1m
Mercer steps down - it's put up or shut up time for Boris!
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 42m
Farage contemplating standing in Newark. If Boris suggests he is interested too, the Lobby might collectively explode.
Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 7m
Mercer gone. By-election on. Waiting for @Nigel_Farage to decide whether will stand. Standby for campaign to draft Boris ? Meant to add ;-)
0 -
Indeed. Both wouldn't mind the constituency (though aren't ideal for it) if the other doesn't stand. Two very successful bluffers playing poker (or prisoners dilemma?) with each other...Richard_Nabavi said:
He wouldn't have any risk of defeat unless his opponent were Farage. And that might be a risk worth seizing.Quincel said:
I don't think Boris will want to stand in Newark, and with any chance at all of defeat.corporeal said:
I don't think he'll want to stand against Boris.SouthamObserver said:If Farage stands he really has to win. It's a very big call for him.
On the other hand, Farage would have too much to lose.0 -
I'm not sure Farage should stand.
1) Would be hard for Farage to locally campaign in Newark and campaign for the Euros at the same time
2) Would be better to get a more locally based candidate
3) If Farage won the bye election he would have to give up his EP seat. If he won the bye election but lost in 2015, he would then face 4 years out of both parliaments unless another bye election came up.0 -
My hunch is a UKIP gain iff they come first in the Euro election. It would be a momentum thing.0
-
Boris shouldn't stand in Newark.
He's already got a job. Trying to become be an MP again in the middle of his term as London Mayor would be a disgrace, and let down Londoners.
And then there's another question: if he stands in Newark and loses, how can he go back to represent Londoners?
I can see why so many people want it to happen for so many reasons: it would be an exciting contest (especially if against Farage), it may lead to a snap London mayoral election, and could see either Boris or Farage in parliament. If Boris was to get into parliament, some could see it as putting extra pressure on Cameron.
But despite all this, Boris shouldn't stand.0 -
Also he only just defeated Ken last time in London. If Labour had put up a credible candidate I think Boris might well have lost. Frankly, I don't think he has what is needed by the Tories to make them attractive to ordinary working/not rich people who live outside London (and certain parts of London at that).Richard_Nabavi said:
I was looking at it from his point of view.BobaFett said:
I thought you opposed his leading the party Richard?Richard_Nabavi said:If Boris wants to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM, a CV which included winning the mayoralty of London twice, including once when the party was unpopular nationally, followed by seeing off Farage in Newark, would be pretty unassailable.
Jus' sayin'
My view is that I'm really not sure about him. He might be brilliant, but it's a high-risk kind of brilliance.
Also, there is a problemette that he's not terribly popular outside the Tory heartlands of the South.
0 -
By election no doubt a headache for the Conservatives, but after these comments;
"He's a most despicable creature without any redeeming features,” Mr Mercer said.
He called Mr Cameron "an arse", adding: "I loathe him."
Asked where Mr Cameron went wrong, Mr Mercer said: "Well, he was born."
I suspect Cameron will be enjoying his post dinner brandy just a little bit more than normal tonight...0 -
Maybe this could break the 30 year losing streak for Tory defences.0
-
AndyJS said:
If Mercer had resigned just a couple of weeks ago, the by-election could have been held on the same day as the Euro elections.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 50m
Nigel Farage says unlikely to stand in a Newark by election if held on same day as European elections
So that puts the spotlight firmly on Boris and Farage until either of them chickens out.
The Westminster village press can't believe their luck. So much space to fill with so much speculation.0 -
Is Newark known for its taste for Kippers? Or are we simply assuming that all safe backwater Tory seats are Kipnapable?0
-
Those papers aren't going to sell themselves! ;-)Mick_Pork said:AndyJS said:If Mercer had resigned just a couple of weeks ago, the by-election could have been held on the same day as the Euro elections.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 50m
Nigel Farage says unlikely to stand in a Newark by election if held on same day as European elections
So that puts the spotlight firmly on Boris and Farage until either of them chickens out.
The Westminster village press can't believe their luck. So much space to fill with so much speculation.
0 -
I can't understand the clamour for Boris now [other than drama, and an improved chance of retaining the seat]. Why not at the election? It's a whole extra year of "part-time Mayor" jibes that both Boris & the Tories can probably do without.0
-
Labour would have won in a Labour town in 2012 for certain with any half decent candidate. Ken was indeed the problem...Cyclefree said:
Also he only just defeated Ken last time in London. If Labour had put up a credible candidate I think Boris might well have lost. Frankly, I don't think he has what is needed by the Tories to make them attractive to ordinary working/not rich people who live outside London (and certain parts of London at that).Richard_Nabavi said:
I was looking at it from his point of view.BobaFett said:
I thought you opposed his leading the party Richard?Richard_Nabavi said:If Boris wants to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM, a CV which included winning the mayoralty of London twice, including once when the party was unpopular nationally, followed by seeing off Farage in Newark, would be pretty unassailable.
Jus' sayin'
My view is that I'm really not sure about him. He might be brilliant, but it's a high-risk kind of brilliance.
Also, there is a problemette that he's not terribly popular outside the Tory heartlands of the South.
0 -
You joking? Mercer was already halfway out the door and not standing in 2015. Now his final act will be to ruin Cameron's plans instead of slink off quietly.GIN1138 said:By election no doubt a headache for the Conservatives, but after these comments;
"He's a most despicable creature without any redeeming features,” Mr Mercer said.
He called Mr Cameron "an arse", adding: "I loathe him."
Asked where Mr Cameron went wrong, Mr Mercer said: "Well, he was born."
I suspect Cameron will be enjoying his post dinner brandy just a little bit more than normal tonight...0 -
I'll repost this:BobaFett said:Is Newark known for its taste for Kippers? Or are we simply assuming that all safe backwater Tory seats are Kipnapable?
The boundaries of the CC divisions don’t match up tidily with the constituency, but these are basically the ones that comprise the Newark constituency:
Bassetlaw: Tuxford.
Newark & Sherwood: Balderton, Collingham, Farndon&Muskham, Newark East, Newark West, Southwell&Caunton.
Rushcliffe: Bingham.
Votes, Newark, 2013 CC elections:
Con: 10,750 (8/8 contested)
Lab: 5,153 (8/8)
UKIP: 3,520 (7/8)
LD: 3,028 (7/8)
Ind: 1,846 (2/8)
Total: 24,297
Percentages:
Con: 44.2%
Lab: 21.2%
UKIP: 14.5%
LD: 12.5%
Ind: 7.6%
Changes from the 2010 general election:
Con: -9.7%
Lab: -1.1%
UKIP: +10.7%
LD: -7.5%
Ind: +7.6%
Not completely accurate because a small portion (in terms of population) of the Radcliffe on Trent CC division is included in the Newark constituency, although most of it is in Rushcliffe. Also a small bit of Tuxford is in Bassetlaw.
2013 CC results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc&pli=1#gid=00 -
Since Labour held the seat in 1997 and are a decent second, while UKIP didn't hold their deposit at the last election, I'm very sceptical that UKIP can take the seat without something very special. It seems more likely to me that Labour would beat the Conservatives, but the prospect of a split opposition suggests to me that the Conservatives should hold on even if they suffer a large adverse swing.BobaFett said:Is Newark known for its taste for Kippers? Or are we simply assuming that all safe backwater Tory seats are Kipnapable?
0 -
Kevan Jones MP @KevanJonesMP Apr 27
There is only one reason why Boris Johnson is eyeing a seat in the House | Andrew Rawnsley http://gu.com/p/3zyqp/tw via @guardian
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics Apr 27
Boris Johnson vows to 'keep fudging' on whether he will stand as an MP http://tgr.ph/1kidpNP
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics Apr 23
Will Boris stand as an MP? Ladbrokes have betting on which seat he'll go for. http://bit.ly/1pq66sJ pic.twitter.com/BXygtCbihQ0 -
Has the candidate already been selected in Newark for 2015? It seemed as though Patrick wanted the current candidate to succeed him.0
-
You don't think this could be a Bermondsey type situation? Huge tactical voting behind the anti-incumbent?antifrank said:
Since Labour held the seat in 1997 and are a decent second, while UKIP didn't hold their deposit at the last election, I'm very sceptical that UKIP can take the seat without something very special. It seems more likely to me that Labour would beat the Conservatives, but the prospect of a split opposition suggests to me that the Conservatives should hold on even if they suffer a large adverse swing.BobaFett said:Is Newark known for its taste for Kippers? Or are we simply assuming that all safe backwater Tory seats are Kipnapable?
0 -
I think that most of the UKIP boosters on here have lost their heads.Quincel said:
You don't think this could be a Bermondsey type situation? Huge tactical voting behind the anti-incumbent?antifrank said:
Since Labour held the seat in 1997 and are a decent second, while UKIP didn't hold their deposit at the last election, I'm very sceptical that UKIP can take the seat without something very special. It seems more likely to me that Labour would beat the Conservatives, but the prospect of a split opposition suggests to me that the Conservatives should hold on even if they suffer a large adverse swing.BobaFett said:Is Newark known for its taste for Kippers? Or are we simply assuming that all safe backwater Tory seats are Kipnapable?
0 -
Newark is separated from the UKIP bastion of Boston & Skegness by just one constituency - Sleaford & North Hykeham.0
-
Actually I disagree on that. It's an election where you need a big personality. Ken certainly had his faults (!), but he was a big name. When you try to think of an alternative Labour candidate, it's hard to think who would have done better - remember Oona King? (No you probably don't). Well, she was considered the front-runner at one point.BobaFett said:
Labour would have won in a Labour town in 2012 for certain with any half decent candidate. Ken was indeed the problem...
0 -
There was good money to be made following that strategy last time, for sure.antifrank said:
I think that most of the UKIP boosters on here have lost their heads.Quincel said:
You don't think this could be a Bermondsey type situation? Huge tactical voting behind the anti-incumbent?antifrank said:
Since Labour held the seat in 1997 and are a decent second, while UKIP didn't hold their deposit at the last election, I'm very sceptical that UKIP can take the seat without something very special. It seems more likely to me that Labour would beat the Conservatives, but the prospect of a split opposition suggests to me that the Conservatives should hold on even if they suffer a large adverse swing.BobaFett said:Is Newark known for its taste for Kippers? Or are we simply assuming that all safe backwater Tory seats are Kipnapable?
0 -
Any sign of some odds from the bookmakers yet on Newark?0
-
I think you're too confident about Tory chances in Newark.antifrank said:
I think that most of the UKIP boosters on here have lost their heads.Quincel said:
You don't think this could be a Bermondsey type situation? Huge tactical voting behind the anti-incumbent?antifrank said:
Since Labour held the seat in 1997 and are a decent second, while UKIP didn't hold their deposit at the last election, I'm very sceptical that UKIP can take the seat without something very special. It seems more likely to me that Labour would beat the Conservatives, but the prospect of a split opposition suggests to me that the Conservatives should hold on even if they suffer a large adverse swing.BobaFett said:Is Newark known for its taste for Kippers? Or are we simply assuming that all safe backwater Tory seats are Kipnapable?
0 -
Ladbrokes:rottenborough said:Any sign of some odds from the bookmakers yet on Newark?
Tories 4/5
UKIP 2/1
Lab 4/10 -
I have already proposed a perfectly viable solution - turn it into the London Borough of Newark (N100) and use the endless fields of grass to build much-needed commuter homes. Hurrah!JosiasJessop said:Boris shouldn't stand in Newark.
He's already got a job. Trying to become be an MP again in the middle of his term as London Mayor would be a disgrace, and let down Londoners.
And then there's another question: if he stands in Newark and loses, how can he go back to represent Londoners?
I can see why so many people want it to happen for so many reasons: it would be an exciting contest (especially if against Farage), it may lead to a snap London mayoral election, and could see either Boris or Farage in parliament. If Boris was to get into parliament, some could see it as putting extra pressure on Cameron.
But despite all this, Boris shouldn't stand.0 -
Ladbrokes
Con 4/5
UKIP 2/1
Lab 4/1
LD 66/1
Boris to be Tory candidate 10/1
Farage to be UKIP candidate 5/1
F+B both to stand, 100/10 -
From the Boris and Farage point of view it's likely they'll want to keep the westminster press guessing and keep coy for as long as they can. Thus ensuring maximum publicity for both for as long as possible. Something neither is known to be averse to. To say the least.
I somehow don't think that's what Cammie wants though.
Thursday 29th May quoted by Crick as earliest possible date.0 -
We need a new thread on the Newark by-election...0
-
According to reliable sources on Twitter (Nick Robinson and others) Tory HQ has confirmed Robert Jenrick will be the candidate.AndyJS said:
Robert Jenrick is the selected Tory candidate. He contested Newcastle-under-Lyme in 2010.RobD said:Has the candidate already been selected in Newark for 2015? It seemed as though Patrick wanted the current candidate to succeed him.
0 -
Poor Newark folk. They'll be removing their door knockers, disconnecting their doorbells and duct-taping up their letterboxes.0
-
Which candidates have already been selected for Newark?0
-
We perhaps shouldn't discount Labour in Newark. Having a look at the history of the seat show's it HAS shifted to Labour at times;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Labour held the seat in 1950 to 1979 and it made up part of Blair's landslide in 1997.
With the split Con/UKIP vote this could have the making of Ed Milliband's defining moment?0 -
Forgive me if I'm being Dim - How many seats are in play in total ?
ie. Total predicted Labour gain of 490, out of how many?0 -
If Mercer's so ashamed about what he did, why didn't he resign when the film had him bang-to-rights in the first place?0
-
-
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 2m
Political correspondents & Westminster in general getting VERY excited about the (vague?) possibility of Farage v Boris in Newark!
Wait till they start knocking up the Boris Vs Farage boxing posters and demanding they debate each other.
*chortle*0 -
Just back from other work.SouthamObserver said:If Farage stands he really has to win. It's a very big call for him.
@Southam, your statement is rubbish and you know it. If Farage stands, and I believe it will depend on the date, and whether it's a winning chance, he will do the best he can.
@rcs1000, I would certainly be truthful with any story concerning UKIP activities. However having said that, I believe that tapes are very easy to splice and alter these days, so I wouldn't put much trust in the SUN.
BTW it's my birthday tomorrow. I will be 80 years old. Fancy that!0 -
Con: Robert Jenrick (age 31/32)JosiasJessop said:Which candidates have already been selected for Newark?
Lab: Michael Payne (age 27/28)
0 -
Boris isn't going to Newark. It's an excellent line but it's too far out. He will have a home counties seat somewhere when it comes.
Oh and btw what are we expecting?
- Cons lose, he becomes MP in 2016 and immediately goes for leader
- Cons win, he becomes MP in 2016 and goes for leader in 2020?
Are there other scenarios?
0 -
At last year's local elections the Labour vote was DOWN compared to the general election: 21% vs 22%.GIN1138 said:We perhaps shouldn't discount Labour in Newark. Having a look at the history of the seat show's it HAS shifted to Labour at times;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Labour held the seat in 1950 to 1979 and it made up part of Blair's landslide in 1997.
With the split Con/UKIP vote this could have the making of Ed Milliband's defining moment?0 -
Newark by-election will be good news for Tories, narrative changing0
-
I knew it wouldn't be Boris.Quincel said:
According to reliable sources on Twitter (Nick Robinson and others) Tory HQ has confirmed Robert Jenrick will be the candidate.AndyJS said:
Robert Jenrick is the selected Tory candidate. He contested Newcastle-under-Lyme in 2010.RobD said:Has the candidate already been selected in Newark for 2015? It seemed as though Patrick wanted the current candidate to succeed him.
He has his eyes firmly set on North West Hampshire or possibly Kensington.0 -
Tough call for Cameron:
- 29th May means only a few days of focussed campaigning but vote could be at UKIP peak if they win Euros
- Wait until summer when things have quietened down but then lots of focussed campaigning
0
