politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For election junkies a great new resource from the House of Co
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For election junkies a great new resource from the House of Commons Library
I suspect many PBers are like me always wanting to check details of past elections usually in order to make a point about a current situation. Well there is a great downloadable resource just out from the Commons library which has data on UK elections going back a whole century and presenting it in an attractive way.
Comments
-
First!0
-
This reminds me, can we see the chart with the split of Tory-Labour votes (i.e. excluding all other parties). I seem to recall that once a party in power started to lose ground in this metric, they never recovered - but that did happen in 2019.0
-
Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.0 -
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”1 -
Your profit or loss on a share is the difference between the price you buy for and the price you sell on. How it bounces around inbetween doesn't effect you on the day you do sell.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.1 -
For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.0 -
Neither do you, if you are suggesting that >everyone< can sell all their investments.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.1 -
You are missing out time factors there - it's possible that over time 70% heck 100% could be infected.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”0 -
FPT @eadric
Being scared is natural. We are all scared. Every sane solider in war is scared.
That’s not what courage or stoicism is: it’s when you put on a brave face and carry on even though you’re scared. You've thought about it, considered it, and know it, but you put it to the back of your mind so you can carry on.
You seem to think the only honest way to behave is to openly emote to everyone else your fears. Everyone feels the same way, and it doesn’t help. It just pisses people off and undermines their resilience.
It’s a good job you’re not a leader. You’d be shite. If it were up to me I’d temporarily ban you until you learned to dial down the panic because you can’t seem to help yourself.
Sorry.1 -
Oh I agree, they can't. Which is a real concern. Hence my subsequent comment about, for example, pensions.Nigelb said:
Neither do you, if you are suggesting that >everyone< can sell all their investments.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
This is really serious now.0 -
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”0 -
I like SeanT (a lot ) but I’m getting a bit tired of his posts.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”0 -
Over time mortality is 100%.eek said:
You are missing out time factors there - it's possible that over time 70% heck 100% could be infected.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”1 -
You seem to be conflating two unrelated points there in a self-referential sort of way. And as I said that I sold at 7400 when the index is now at 6550 I think I have cracked the "sell high" bit.Philip_Thompson said:
No if you buy high and sell low you are doing this wrong.IshmaelZ said:
But what we have is a second-order problem of people panicking about panic where there is not a lot of panic. We have a very, very big problem which justifies taking very, very big steps which might count as panic in other circs. I did something really panicky the other day, I SOLD ALL MY EQUITIES with the ftse at 7400 odd. What a twat: I have saved myself the price of a brand new Bentley and saddled myself with a CGT bill. If only I had kept calm and carried on.TheScreamingEagles said:Before you post about Covid-19 remember this.
What is really baffling is the attempt of the non-panickers to connect unrelated historical and prospective probabilities. If you think you are going to do x about coronavirus because the chances of dying in a road accident in country y are n%, you are doing this wrong.
PB is not at its best when moonlighting as an investment forum, so I will just say this and leave it there: the fact that a market has halved doesn't by any means guarantee it will not halve again. The big swinging dick stuff about blood on the streets, others are fearful etc is useless because it doesn't specify how fearful, or how much blood. Going back into this market before it has stabilised for a minimum of six months might make you a fortune but it iwould be a very, very, very high risk thing to do.0 -
Are they really ?eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
Please provide citations - along with estimates of the likelihood of those numbers being accurate.
60% infected as a worst case scenario is credible, albeit unlikely, but combined with that mortality rate ? I have not seen any epidemiologist say that.0 -
Even Sean's maths are wrong.rkrkrk said:
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
One fact we do have is that twelve Brits spent an entire holiday holed up in a ski chalet with a carrier, in cold weather, and without taking any precautions whatsoever, since none of them had any idea.
At the end of their holiday a majority (just) of them did not get the disease. So talk of 70% appears way off.0 -
I think by "epidemiologist" he means "random fearmonger on Twitter" and not "credible source like WHO or NHS"Nigelb said:
Are they really ?eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
Please provide citations - along with estimates of the likelihood of those numbers being accurate.
60% infected as a worst case scenario is credible, albeit unlikely, but combined with that mortality rate ? I have not seen any epidemiologist say that.0 -
F1: not inclined to make more pre-season bets, but Betfair Sportsbook does have Bottas at 9 (available each way, third the odds top 2) to win the title. Decent chance of him finishing 2nd.
Went a bit off Sportsbook when they didn't pay me out for backing Hamilton because he started in the pit lane (I did get a little but not what I should've).1 -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/tensions-rise-between-turkey-and-russia-after-killing-of-troops-in-syria
"Hundreds of Syrian refugees in Turkey have begun preparing to travel towards the country’s borders with Greece and Bulgaria after Ankara’s sudden decision to no longer impede their passage to Europe.
The move comes after an airstrike on Thursday night in Syria’s Idlib province killed at least 33 Turkish soldiers recently deployed to support the Syrian opposition in the face of a blistering Russian-backed Syrian government offensive.
Turkish police, coastguard and border security officials were ordered to stand down overnight on Thursday, Turkish officials briefed reporters."
This has potentially huge ramifications for Europe, at a time already of anxiety over Brexit and the Coronavirus.0 -
(Sidenote: Technically you should include Dividends Received in your Return calculation as well)Philip_Thompson said:
Your profit or loss on a share is the difference between the price you buy for and the price you sell on.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
2 -
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.0 -
You could say the same about betting on politics. The only thing that matters is the result at the end - so just bet on the result you expect and then sit and wait.Philip_Thompson said:
Your profit or loss on a share is the difference between the price you buy for and the price you sell on. How it bounces around inbetween doesn't effect you on the day you do sell.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
Of course you can bet that way, and some people do.
But there are opportunities for money to be made by anticipating trends, trying to judge when particular positions are overbought or oversold, and very many PB'ers trade the political markets that way. The same is true of financial markets.0 -
The truth is that he's a drama queen, largely I suspect because it makes him the centre of attention.Casino_Royale said:
I like SeanT (a lot ) but I’m getting a bit tired of his posts.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
I'm sure many of us remember the day after the Brexit result - his fears kicked Project Fear into the shade - and he'd actually voted for Brexit.0 -
There's a difference between gambling and investing.IanB2 said:
You could say the same about betting on politics. The only thing that matters is the result at the end - so just bet on the result you expect and then sit and wait.Philip_Thompson said:
Your profit or loss on a share is the difference between the price you buy for and the price you sell on. How it bounces around inbetween doesn't effect you on the day you do sell.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
Of course you can bet that way, and some people do.
But there are opportunities for money to be made by anticipating trends, trying to judge when particular positions are overbought or oversold, and very many PB'ers trade the political markets that way. The same is true of financial markets.
If you want to gamble then absolutely good luck to you. Opportunities are available from gambling but in the long term unless you're well above an average punter the opportunities lie better for the bookmaker than the punter.
If you want to invest for the long term future then that is a different matter.0 -
I really really hope that post ages well.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.1 -
Well, fine, but he called this right. Absolutely spot on. And the rest of us, for the most part, did not.IanB2 said:
The truth is that he's a drama queen, largely I suspect because it makes him the centre of attention.Casino_Royale said:
I like SeanT (a lot ) but I’m getting a bit tired of his posts.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
I'm sure many of us remember the day after the Brexit result - his fears kicked Project Fear into the shade - and he'd actually voted for Brexit.0 -
I see Hunt talking about this again. I think his appointment as Virus Czar makes sense and looks like actually doing something. Is there a market on this? I presume it will be a cabinet level post so next in the Cabinet perhaps?0
-
Indeed.IanB2 said:
You could say the same about betting on politics. The only thing that matters is the result at the end - so just bet on the result you expect and then sit and wait.Philip_Thompson said:
Your profit or loss on a share is the difference between the price you buy for and the price you sell on. How it bounces around inbetween doesn't effect you on the day you do sell.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
Of course you can bet that way, and some people do.
But there are opportunities for money to be made by anticipating trends, trying to judge when particular positions are overbought or oversold, and very many PB'ers trade the political markets that way. The same is true of financial markets.
And the real trouble with Philip's thumb-up-bum approach is if there's a big market correction. It only works if you play the long term gain and assume that prices will always rise over, say, a five year on five year basis.
This situation may be so hard-hitting that the global economy, and with it the markets, may not recover this side of 2025.0 -
For those with pensions who are <5 years away from pension age you mean.Mysticrose said:For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
For most people, the vast majority, buy and hold or give your money to Crispin Odey or Fido is not only practical it is the only realistic way to play the markets.
If you do this all day and it's all you do then where is your fund? Your frictional costs are likely killing you anyway.
And as for calling this latest correction right - are you one of those people like @eadric who have correctly forecast nine out of the last three market pullbacks?3 -
Extinction Rebellion extinction event?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/27/huge-crowds-expected-for-greta-thunberg-visit-to-bristol0 -
FPT
As an epidemiologist who does some work on projections (not in infectious disease, so I'm no expert on this specifically), it's perhaps worth pointing out that, asked for projections with limited data, they'll almost certainly be doing realistic worst case scenarios (you can do that based on other epidemics and some basic assumptions). Sometimes you can also do a realistic best case scenario, but for COVID-19 in the UK, that is just some very small number (few people come in with the virus and they are successfully isolated). There simply isn't the data now (at least in the public domain, from what Ive seen) to make any stab at a most-likely scenario. So most of the estimates being produced (or at least the parts of them being publicised) are at the worst-case end of the scale (although entirely plausible if containment fails - and it could be worse than those if some of the assumptions are wrong). That does mean that over a large number of epidemics, most would come in under the headline estimates, although this one may not. Realistic worst-case is useful, as that's what's needed to make contingency plans, but the use in newspaper headlines does tend to make people think that the experts get it wrong or exaggerate (e.g. headlines about how many millions might die from CJD - the studies will have been based on how many were exposed and a - probably, as it turns out - high guess at the risk of infection).eadric said:Jeremy Hunt makes an interesting claim today.
He says that in Wuhan (so far), the coronavirus has only infected 5% of the population. That is, as he also says, massively different from the various predictions of 40-70% infection, which most epidemiologists advance.
It’s an encouraging point amidst the gloom.
However he fails to spell out how Wuhan has achieved this: with total lockdown of the entire population. And house arrest for 11m people.
This is less encouraging. It suggests that if we want to avoid apocalypse we have to accept universal imprisonment for several months. It may come to that.
South Korea and Italy will give a much better bound on what would be most likely to happen here, assuming we're approximately as competent in responding as they are.0 -
Fluffy junior still needs to put some work in the down turned mooth stakes, but a solid start from the lad.
https://twitter.com/mark_mclaughlin/status/1233333938552176642?s=200 -
As I said, you have put together two numbers which no epidemiologist appears to have done.eadric said:
I crunched the numbers yesterday.rkrkrk said:
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
A reasonable worst case scenario for infection is 70% of the population in one year (see my link below)
A reasonable worst case scenario for mortality rate is 4% (Wuhan)
NB it could be worse, the resolved case fatality ratio at the moment is 8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Apply these numbers to 65m Brits and you get 2m dead. Basic maths.
Of course this is WORST CASE SCENARIO so it is inherently unlikely, by definition. But it is not impossible.
Please show me where one has drawn this conclusion.0 -
You are being as unduly optimistic as eadric is pessimistic.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.0 -
Or, putting it another way, we all have free choice over when to buy, but many of us will have a relatively fixed end point when we have to sell, even if right now it is some time away.Mysticrose said:
Indeed.IanB2 said:
You could say the same about betting on politics. The only thing that matters is the result at the end - so just bet on the result you expect and then sit and wait.Philip_Thompson said:
Your profit or loss on a share is the difference between the price you buy for and the price you sell on. How it bounces around inbetween doesn't effect you on the day you do sell.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
Of course you can bet that way, and some people do.
But there are opportunities for money to be made by anticipating trends, trying to judge when particular positions are overbought or oversold, and very many PB'ers trade the political markets that way. The same is true of financial markets.
And the real trouble with Philip's thumb-up-bum approach is if there's a big market correction. It only works if you play the long term gain and assume that prices will always rise over, say, a five year on five year basis.
This situation may be so hard-hitting that the global economy, and with it the markets, may not recover this side of 2025.0 -
Funnily enough, I caught PMQs this week for the first time in ages. Corbyn actually did quite a good job on the "missing Prime Minister".kinabalu said:
Yes, and what about pressing some questions -Cyclefree said:If we had a half-decent opposition, it would be a tremendous opportunity. Were I the next Labour leader, I would make it a priority to get myself and Shadow Cabinet members on every programme possible to put Labour’s case and show up the government.
Where's that Russia report?
Who paid for Johnson's Xmas holiday?
Why has he taken over the Treasury?
What happened to his pledge to raise the 40p threshold?
Whither the fiscal rules?
No-one was paying any attention, of course.0 -
So what?Mysticrose said:
Indeed.IanB2 said:
You could say the same about betting on politics. The only thing that matters is the result at the end - so just bet on the result you expect and then sit and wait.Philip_Thompson said:
Your profit or loss on a share is the difference between the price you buy for and the price you sell on. How it bounces around inbetween doesn't effect you on the day you do sell.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
Of course you can bet that way, and some people do.
But there are opportunities for money to be made by anticipating trends, trying to judge when particular positions are overbought or oversold, and very many PB'ers trade the political markets that way. The same is true of financial markets.
And the real trouble with Philip's thumb-up-bum approach is if there's a big market correction. It only works if you play the long term gain and assume that prices will always rise over, say, a five year on five year basis.
This situation may be so hard-hitting that the global economy, and with it the markets, may not recover this side of 2025.
I'm talking about the long term investments as opposed to short term investments or gambling. If your investments are not scheduled to reach maturity until the 2030s or 2040s or later then that is the other side of 2025.0 -
On topic, an interesting chart.
Bloody Attlee. And f*&$ing Blair!
I'll glance at the report too.0 -
Well, fine, but so did I.Mysticrose said:
Well, fine, but he called this right. Absolutely spot on. And the rest of us, for the most part, did not.IanB2 said:
The truth is that he's a drama queen, largely I suspect because it makes him the centre of attention.Casino_Royale said:
I like SeanT (a lot ) but I’m getting a bit tired of his posts.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
I'm sure many of us remember the day after the Brexit result - his fears kicked Project Fear into the shade - and he'd actually voted for Brexit.
He's running up and down the street in his pyjamas screaming of imminent doom. And everyone in the street has heard the same screams multiple times before.
I did people the favour of providing a calm assessment on Monday morning (and indeed over the weekend), before markets opened, of what I expected this week, and what I intended to do about it.
I know which I'd prefer to receive.0 -
There are currently 48k cases confirmed in Wuhan out of a population of 11m. That may be an underestimate of course but after more than 2 months infections are currently an infection rate of under 5%.eadric said:
I crunched the numbers yesterday.rkrkrk said:
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
A reasonable worst case scenario for infection is 70% of the population in one year (see my link below)
A reasonable worst case scenario for mortality rate is 4% (Wuhan)
NB it could be worse, the resolved case fatality ratio at the moment is 8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Apply these numbers to 65m Brits and you get 2m dead. Basic maths.
Of course this is WORST CASE SCENARIO so it is inherently unlikely, by definition. But it is not impossible.
According to the Chinese (I know, I know) there were 313 new cases confirmed in Wuhan yesterday and the numbers are on a declining trend. A 70% infection rate is not a worst case scenario, its a total fantasy.1 -
Yes the missing PM thing was a good attack line. But, as with Tony Blair when, if you remember, the joke was that he was never in the country (a famous Matt cartoon had someone staring at a plane overhead saying "oh look Tony Blair is having a state visit to the UK") it doesn't matter a jot.FF43 said:
Funnily enough, I caught PMQs this week for the first time in ages. Corbyn actually did quite a good job on the "missing Prime Minister".kinabalu said:
Yes, and what about pressing some questions -Cyclefree said:If we had a half-decent opposition, it would be a tremendous opportunity. Were I the next Labour leader, I would make it a priority to get myself and Shadow Cabinet members on every programme possible to put Labour’s case and show up the government.
Where's that Russia report?
Who paid for Johnson's Xmas holiday?
Why has he taken over the Treasury?
What happened to his pledge to raise the 40p threshold?
Whither the fiscal rules?
No-one was paying any attention, of course.0 -
'Special coaches are being arranged from London, Cardiff, Exeter, Oxford and Birmingham'CarlottaVance said:Extinction Rebellion extinction event?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/27/huge-crowds-expected-for-greta-thunberg-visit-to-bristol
Nice to see them not using fossil fuels wasted on a speech in the rain...
Oh wait..0 -
Re the Sickness -
For me, the rational reason to be concerned is not so much the health aspects but the measures that may be needed to control the health aspects. Major disruption to life and potentially a huge economic hit.0 -
Bingo although eadric is far closer to the truth sadly. Unfortunately Phil is digging himself in on this. It suggests some weird inability to process information or a know-it-all can't be wrong mentality. Probably the latter.Nigelb said:
You are being as unduly optimistic as eadric is pessimistic.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.0 -
I'm not sure a liberal democracy can implement those measures. It's simply not going ot happen.kinabalu said:Re the Sickness -
For me, the rational reason to be concerned is not so much the health aspects but the measures that may be needed to control the health aspects. Major disruption to life and potentially a huge economic hit.0 -
So far in the UK we are at 0 deaths and tomorrow is the last meteorological day of winter.Nigelb said:
You are being as unduly optimistic as eadric is pessimistic.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.0 -
So tell me why BFE "US recession in 2020" now at @2.90 isn't a good bet? On sentiment even if not on the fact, given the likely lag effects.kinabalu said:Re the Sickness -
For me, the rational reason to be concerned is not so much the health aspects but the measures that may be needed to control the health aspects. Major disruption to life and potentially a huge economic hit.0 -
I don't think anyone was seriously suggesting that they were infectious. What is concerning is whether they have immunity or can be reinfected. There are a number of recorded cases but it is possible that they were false positives first or second time around. If you can be reinfected then eliminating the virus is much more difficult.eadric said:
I’m not being pessimistic. I don’t think the worst case scenario will happen. Because, er, it is the worst case scenario, that’s what it means. It’s at the far end of the dial. And very unlikely. Thank god.Nigelb said:
You are being as unduly optimistic as eadric is pessimistic.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.
But it is plausible, going on the science.
For balance, here’s some better news. Recovered victims are probably not infectious. That’s good
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1233328156452564994?s=210 -
Wait a minute. I've been away for a bit. I thought we all thought Byronic was SeanT? Is it Philip Thompson now instead?Casino_Royale said:
I like SeanT (a lot ) but I’m getting a bit tired of his posts.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”0 -
Nobody is listening to Corbyn anymore. That’s what this prolonged Labour leadership election is so sub-optimal for the country given events.TOPPING said:
Yes the missing PM thing was a good attack line. But, as with Tony Blair when, if you remember, the joke was that he was never in the country (a famous Matt cartoon had someone staring at a plane overhead saying "oh look Tony Blair is having a state visit to the UK") it doesn't matter a jot.FF43 said:
Funnily enough, I caught PMQs this week for the first time in ages. Corbyn actually did quite a good job on the "missing Prime Minister".kinabalu said:
Yes, and what about pressing some questions -Cyclefree said:If we had a half-decent opposition, it would be a tremendous opportunity. Were I the next Labour leader, I would make it a priority to get myself and Shadow Cabinet members on every programme possible to put Labour’s case and show up the government.
Where's that Russia report?
Who paid for Johnson's Xmas holiday?
Why has he taken over the Treasury?
What happened to his pledge to raise the 40p threshold?
Whither the fiscal rules?
No-one was paying any attention, of course.0 -
Yes some good news. Highly predictable also.eadric said:
I’m not being pessimistic. I don’t think the worst case scenario will happen. Because, er, it is the worst case scenario, that’s what it means. It’s at the far end of the dial. And very unlikely. Thank god.Nigelb said:
You are being as unduly optimistic as eadric is pessimistic.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.
But it is plausible, going on the science.
For balance, here’s some better news. Recovered victims are probably not infectious. That’s good
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1233328156452564994?s=21
So yesterday was going 'Oh my God look at this!!' helpful in anyway? Genuine question.
The way we conduct ourselves now is important. Even on here. Everyone has their part to play.
The time for waking people is done. The time now is for evidence and clear thinking.0 -
It isn't the "opinion", at all. Why do you persist in misrepresenting everything you read?eadric said:
But it is the opinion of Harvard epidemiologists, and the World Health Organisation, 70%DavidL said:
There are currently 48k cases confirmed in Wuhan out of a population of 11m. That may be an underestimate of course but after more than 2 months infections are currently an infection rate of under 5%.eadric said:
I crunched the numbers yesterday.rkrkrk said:
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
A reasonable worst case scenario for infection is 70% of the population in one year (see my link below)
A reasonable worst case scenario for mortality rate is 4% (Wuhan)
NB it could be worse, the resolved case fatality ratio at the moment is 8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Apply these numbers to 65m Brits and you get 2m dead. Basic maths.
Of course this is WORST CASE SCENARIO so it is inherently unlikely, by definition. But it is not impossible.
According to the Chinese (I know, I know) there were 313 new cases confirmed in Wuhan yesterday and the numbers are on a declining trend. A 70% infection rate is not a worst case scenario, its a total fantasy.
Are they lying? Do they make money from panic?
I’m genuinely intrigued by your answer - why would they lie? Or are they just wrong?
It's the wild upper end of a considerable range of scenarios, with some relatively tame ones at the wild lower end. And every expert pronouncing on this right now is careful - unlike you - to add in all the caveats and uncertainties that mean that they don't really know.0 -
A liberal democracy can certainly implement such measures and has done so - in war-time mind.Slackbladder said:
I'm not sure a liberal democracy can implement those measures. It's simply not going ot happen.kinabalu said:Re the Sickness -
For me, the rational reason to be concerned is not so much the health aspects but the measures that may be needed to control the health aspects. Major disruption to life and potentially a huge economic hit.
It would make sense for citizens not to behave like nitwits though. Having mass meetings with people travelling from round the globe at a time like this is pretty daft.1 -
That is an interesting question. I was mulling it yesterday in Waitrose. Perhaps it will be good for us to go totalitarian for a period, knowing that it is temporary and the usual liberties will be restored in due course. Move onto a War footing where the enemy is Covid. People would rather enjoy that, I think. Especially those WWC Leavers. They are always talking about the War.Slackbladder said:I'm not sure a liberal democracy can implement those measures. It's simply not going ot happen.
0 -
Two million deaths in the UK is closer to reality than 0-100 deaths at best and a bad flu season at worst? I don't think so, I'll be right by an order of magnitude.GideonWise said:Bingo although eadric is far closer to the truth sadly. Unfortunately Phil is digging himself in on this. It suggests some weird inability to process information or a know-it-all can't be wrong mentality. Probably the latter.
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!0 -
Man furious at being paid at correct odds.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mans-anger-bookies-after-error-21595097?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
The abstract value of the free £5 bet is about £3.33 - given Fury was just around evens prefight; Coral's offer is generous.0 -
You still haven't answered my question.eadric said:
But it is the opinion of Harvard epidemiologists, and the World Health Organisation, 70%DavidL said:
There are currently 48k cases confirmed in Wuhan out of a population of 11m. That may be an underestimate of course but after more than 2 months infections are currently an infection rate of under 5%.eadric said:
I crunched the numbers yesterday.rkrkrk said:
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
A reasonable worst case scenario for infection is 70% of the population in one year (see my link below)
A reasonable worst case scenario for mortality rate is 4% (Wuhan)
NB it could be worse, the resolved case fatality ratio at the moment is 8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Apply these numbers to 65m Brits and you get 2m dead. Basic maths.
Of course this is WORST CASE SCENARIO so it is inherently unlikely, by definition. But it is not impossible.
According to the Chinese (I know, I know) there were 313 new cases confirmed in Wuhan yesterday and the numbers are on a declining trend. A 70% infection rate is not a worst case scenario, its a total fantasy.
Are they lying? Do they make money from panic?
I’m genuinely intrigued by your answer - why would they lie? Or are they just wrong?0 -
Like me.TOPPING said:
For those with pensions who areMysticrose said:For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Fortunately a lot of my assets are in cash.
So I will have to try and continue working, even in the recession which is coming. Fun times, eh!
Anyway, Daughter - having recovered - has got me face masks and pretty much ordered me to self-isolate (which I am more or less doing) on the grounds, as she put it so eloquently yesterday: “You’re not young, not as fit as you should be and have crap lungs.”
Out of the mouths of babes .....!1 -
I find it interesting what with the LHR news and now apparently the road building programme will be binned for the same reason - climate. This is what a nation looks like that wants to cut its carbon emissions: forget recycling your yoghurt pot, we now have a multi-billion pound truncation of investment and therefore economic activity.CarlottaVance said:Extinction Rebellion extinction event?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/27/huge-crowds-expected-for-greta-thunberg-visit-to-bristol
We shall see of course whether this is received well or badly by voters.1 -
Your worst case scenario.eadric said:
I’m not being pessimistic. I don’t think the worst case scenario will happen. Because, er, it is the worst case scenario, that’s what it means. It’s at the far end of the dial. And very unlikely. Thank god...Nigelb said:
You are being as unduly optimistic as eadric is pessimistic.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.
Not one postulated by anyone qualified to do so.0 -
The only thing that gives me pause is that Italy's numbers imply there are ~1,000 unidentified carriers of the virus in Italy, or it has mutated and become more lethal. And we're now seeing numbers start to rise in France too.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not scared. I go through every flu season without a flu vaccine as the NHS don't recommend I get it and I'm not terrified then that I'll get the flu. This is an overreaction just like SARS and its highly probable that ultimate mortality in the UK will range from 0 to below 100 versus a baseline of thousands to over 10,000 for routine influenza.eadric said:
Jesus Christ. I know you’re scared but man up.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's absolute bullshit. Wuhan (nor the cruise ship nor anywhere else) doesn't have 70% infected and nor should we have 4% given this caught Wuhan by surprise and Wuhan lacks our medical capabilities. Its total fearmongering bullshit.eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
70% infection is the worst case scenario. As I said. But it is not my worst case scenario. It is the expert view
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/25/cdc-says-americans-should-brace-significant-disruptions-amid-warnings-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s not me fear mongering. It’s top Harvard epidemiologists and the World Health Organisation. Go and fearfully shout at them, instead.0 -
They signed 18/1 and took payment on that. They should pay out at that and be more careful next time.Pulpstar said:Man furious at being paid at correct odds.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mans-anger-bookies-after-error-21595097?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
The abstract value of the free £5 bet is about £3.33 - given Fury was just around evens prefight; Coral's offer is generous.1 -
Eadric:
Nice one, thanks for taking that in good faith.
From our interactions yesterday. It does indeed sound like the FDA/CDC have had a fuck up. I'm sure they will get their shit together soon. But I have to couch everything I say about the US with uncertainty, I know nothing about it really.0 -
Good advice - and I hope unnecessary.Cyclefree said:
Like me.TOPPING said:
For those with pensions who areMysticrose said:For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Fortunately a lot of my assets are in cash.
So I will have to try and continue working, even in the recession which is coming. Fun times, eh!
Anyway, Daughter - having recovered - has got me face masks and pretty much ordered me to self-isolate (which I am more or less doing) on the grounds, as she put it so eloquently yesterday: “You’re not young, not as fit as you should be and have crap lungs.”
Out of the mouths of babes .....!0 -
Surely the opposite is the case. The virus shows the huge weaknesses of the chinese system.kinabalu said:
That is an interesting question. I was mulling it yesterday in Waitrose. Perhaps it will be good for us to go totalitarian for a period, knowing that it is temporary and the usual liberties will be restored in due course. Move onto a War footing where the enemy is Covid. People would rather enjoy that, I think. Especially those WWC Leavers. They are always talking about the War.Slackbladder said:I'm not sure a liberal democracy can implement those measures. It's simply not going ot happen.
In its initial stagaes it was very difficult to get reliable data on the outbreak because the government was undoubtedy restricting information and silencing whistleblowers.
Even now we have no idea if the official figues from Wuhan are correct or doctored.
Indeed, one of the long term effects of this is a surely a debate about how we deal with China.
It seems right now that anything can be excused because of its size and power. We can now see the drawbacks of that policy.0 -
We here on PB should know all about charts and graphs. What has been the multi-decadal performance of your pension prior to last Monday?Cyclefree said:
Like me.TOPPING said:
For those with pensions who areMysticrose said:For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Fortunately a lot of my assets are in cash.
So I will have to try and continue working, even in the recession which is coming. Fun times, eh!
Anyway, Daughter - having recovered - has got me face masks and pretty much ordered me to self-isolate (which I am more or less doing) on the grounds, as she put it so eloquently yesterday: “You’re not young, not as fit as you should be and have crap lungs.”
Out of the mouths of babes .....!
And as for face masks - I thought they protected those around you from you, not the other way round,0 -
Professor Matteo Bassetti , director of the Infectious Diseases Clinic of the San Martino Hospital in Genoa, was asked his thoughts about the fact that there are now 650 reported cases of coronavirus in Italy, of whom 17 have died. He said, "at most two or three died due to the pathogen. The others died with the infection, not because of it." In other words, they were dying of something else when they were infected with coronavirus.
When asked about the lethality of the disease, Dr. Bassetti said, "It's at 2.3% in Hubei, the Chinese epicenter of the epidemic. In that area the health system has collapsed, some patients have been treated in hospital, others in gyms, others in caravans. In the rest of China lethality is at 0.3%, while outside Asia the figure is between 0.4% and 0.8%. "
He said many of the statistics are comparing apples and oranges, because, "people who tested positive for Covid-19, after they died are included in the statistics even when the real cause of death was something else."1 -
-
They are not lying, they are hypothesising with numbers to give the innumerate that they are speaking to some idea of what they are talking about. Which is fair enough. But the hypothesis is based upon a mathematical model which needs to be tested against real world results. And the real world indicates that in the most optimum of conditions infection rates are much lower. In an organised and prepared country like the UK I am confident that we can do much better than that.eadric said:
But it is the opinion of Harvard epidemiologists, and the World Health Organisation, 70%DavidL said:
There are currently 48k cases confirmed in Wuhan out of a population of 11m. That may be an underestimate of course but after more than 2 months infections are currently an infection rate of under 5%.eadric said:
I crunched the numbers yesterday.rkrkrk said:
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
A reasonable worst case scenario for infection is 70% of the population in one year (see my link below)
A reasonable worst case scenario for mortality rate is 4% (Wuhan)
NB it could be worse, the resolved case fatality ratio at the moment is 8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Apply these numbers to 65m Brits and you get 2m dead. Basic maths.
Of course this is WORST CASE SCENARIO so it is inherently unlikely, by definition. But it is not impossible.
According to the Chinese (I know, I know) there were 313 new cases confirmed in Wuhan yesterday and the numbers are on a declining trend. A 70% infection rate is not a worst case scenario, its a total fantasy.
Are they lying? Do they make money from panic?
I’m genuinely intrigued by your answer - why would they lie? Or are they just wrong?
I am not seeking to trivialise this, not at all. If 5% of the UK population get this and 2% of them die that's 65k people. The economic consequences of the steps we would need to take to keep it to that are going to be seriously adverse. It is likely that globalisation is going to take two or three backward steps before progress is going to be resumed. I think you are right to highlight this, it is by far the most important thing going on at the moment, Brexit is a trivial sideshow by comparison.
But calm down.2 -
I somehow think the community mentality and sense of the 'greater good' was somewhat higher in the 1930s/40sCyclefree said:
A liberal democracy can certainly implement such measures and has done so - in war-time mind.Slackbladder said:
I'm not sure a liberal democracy can implement those measures. It's simply not going ot happen.kinabalu said:Re the Sickness -
For me, the rational reason to be concerned is not so much the health aspects but the measures that may be needed to control the health aspects. Major disruption to life and potentially a huge economic hit.
It would make sense for citizens not to behave like nitwits though. Having mass meetings with people travelling from round the globe at a time like this is pretty daft.
Also of course from a practical view point, people didn't move around anywhere near as much.0 -
Tosh, they'd be within their rights to void the bet given there is a clear and obvious palpable error here. He's not going to get very far with this if he heads to IBAS.Philip_Thompson said:
They signed 18/1 and took payment on that. They should pay out at that and be more careful next time.Pulpstar said:Man furious at being paid at correct odds.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mans-anger-bookies-after-error-21595097?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
The abstract value of the free £5 bet is about £3.33 - given Fury was just around evens prefight; Coral's offer is generous.0 -
I think you just need to accept that you can be wrong on things. It's fine, everyone can be from time to time.Philip_Thompson said:
Two million deaths in the UK is closer to reality than 0-100 deaths at best and a bad flu season at worst? I don't think so, I'll be right by an order of magnitude.GideonWise said:Bingo although eadric is far closer to the truth sadly. Unfortunately Phil is digging himself in on this. It suggests some weird inability to process information or a know-it-all can't be wrong mentality. Probably the latter.
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!0 -
More from the "only America could be this stupid" department
https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1232737097892667392
Bonus points to the first candidate to change their surname to Aardvark at the first opportunity.2 -
I agree, it is an interesting question. For sure, the virus will greatly muddy the waters when it comes assessing the economic impact of Brexit. It the economy tanks Leavers will say it`s due to the virus and nothing to do with leaving the EU. I guess we`ll never know.kinabalu said:
That is an interesting question. I was mulling it yesterday in Waitrose. Perhaps it will be good for us to go totalitarian for a period, knowing that it is temporary and the usual liberties will be restored in due course. Move onto a War footing where the enemy is Covid. People would rather enjoy that, I think. Especially those WWC Leavers. They are always talking about the War.Slackbladder said:I'm not sure a liberal democracy can implement those measures. It's simply not going ot happen.
0 -
The problem with that is that the historical precedents for "going totalitarian, just for a short while, till things get things done" are not good.kinabalu said:
That is an interesting question. I was mulling it yesterday in Waitrose. Perhaps it will be good for us to go totalitarian for a period, knowing that it is temporary and the usual liberties will be restored in due course. Move onto a War footing where the enemy is Covid. People would rather enjoy that, I think. Especially those WWC Leavers. They are always talking about the War.Slackbladder said:I'm not sure a liberal democracy can implement those measures. It's simply not going ot happen.
World War II Britain and America I suppose are an exception, but I'm not sure I'd describe the wartime coalition and propaganda as totalitarian.
0 -
Reminds me of the time I bought two bathroom radiators from Amazon for £27. They voided it shortly after and said there was a glitch in their pricing routine. I had no comeback.Pulpstar said:
Tosh, they'd be within their rights to void the bet given there is a clear and obvious palpable error here. He's not going to get very far with this if he heads to IBAS.Philip_Thompson said:
They signed 18/1 and took payment on that. They should pay out at that and be more careful next time.Pulpstar said:Man furious at being paid at correct odds.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mans-anger-bookies-after-error-21595097?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
The abstract value of the free £5 bet is about £3.33 - given Fury was just around evens prefight; Coral's offer is generous.0 -
The bulk of my equity investments is in a discretionary trust for my grandchildren or their children. It has a mandatory end point in 125 years time though the trustees can cash it in at some point before then but it will be after I'm dead. So I'm a long term investor.Philip_Thompson said:
So what?Mysticrose said:
Indeed.IanB2 said:
You could say the same about betting on politics. The only thing that matters is the result at the end - so just bet on the result you expect and then sit and wait.Philip_Thompson said:
Your profit or loss on a share is the difference between the price you buy for and the price you sell on. How it bounces around inbetween doesn't effect you on the day you do sell.Mysticrose said:Philip you don't have a scoobies about stocks and shares. So please don't try and infect others on here others with your stupidity.
In other matters, like politics, you may be great.
Of course you can bet that way, and some people do.
But there are opportunities for money to be made by anticipating trends, trying to judge when particular positions are overbought or oversold, and very many PB'ers trade the political markets that way. The same is true of financial markets.
And the real trouble with Philip's thumb-up-bum approach is if there's a big market correction. It only works if you play the long term gain and assume that prices will always rise over, say, a five year on five year basis.
This situation may be so hard-hitting that the global economy, and with it the markets, may not recover this side of 2025.
I'm talking about the long term investments as opposed to short term investments or gambling. If your investments are not scheduled to reach maturity until the 2030s or 2040s or later then that is the other side of 2025.1 -
Re face masks, I know - but Daughter was being cautious and caring and I am touched.TOPPING said:
We here on PB should know all about charts and graphs. What has been the multi-decadal performance of your pension prior to last Monday?Cyclefree said:
Like me.TOPPING said:
For those with pensions who areMysticrose said:For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Fortunately a lot of my assets are in cash.
So I will have to try and continue working, even in the recession which is coming. Fun times, eh!
Anyway, Daughter - having recovered - has got me face masks and pretty much ordered me to self-isolate (which I am more or less doing) on the grounds, as she put it so eloquently yesterday: “You’re not young, not as fit as you should be and have crap lungs.”
Out of the mouths of babes .....!
And as for face masks - I thought they protected those around you from you, not the other way round,
Re pensions, they’ve done ok. But don’t know figure off top of my head. Have a mixture of final salary and money purchase schemes and have put off claiming them while I can still earn.
I am not going to react to day to day events. I have an advisor to guide me. It is worrying but I try to keep a cool head in a crisis.0 -
FPT
It's a matter of keeping things in perspective and not running around like a headless chicken screaming 'panic everyone'. NB I'm not suggesting you are doing that.IshmaelZ said:
But what we have is a second-order problem of people panicking about panic where there is not a lot of panic. We have a very, very big problem which justifies taking very, very big steps which might count as panic in other circs. I did something really panicky the other day, I SOLD ALL MY EQUITIES with the ftse at 7400 odd. What a twat: I have saved myself the price of a brand new Bentley and saddled myself with a CGT bill. If only I had kept calm and carried on.TheScreamingEagles said:Before you post about Covid-19 remember this.
What is really baffling is the attempt of the non-panickers to connect unrelated historical and prospective probabilities. If you think you are going to do x about coronavirus because the chances of dying in a road accident in country y are n%, you are doing this wrong.
The FT letter helps put a perspective on it. So do the comparisions with other risks such as road accidents.
There are experts working very hard on all aspects of this threat such as vaccines, new tests, control mechanisms, health resources etc. For the ordiunary citizen the thing to do is take sensible precautions, avoid crowds where possible, wash your hands and if you get symptoms self-isolate. But don't panic and don't encourage others to panic.
The economic damage I suspect will be greater than the health damage and it will be fuelled by panic.
Good for you selling out the FT at 7400. It doesn't make me feel any better.
2 -
Temporary Powers is also how the Emperor got in place in Star Wars...WhisperingOracle said:
The problem with that is that the historical precedents for "going totalitarian, just for a short while, till things get things done" are not good.kinabalu said:
That is an interesting question. I was mulling it yesterday in Waitrose. Perhaps it will be good for us to go totalitarian for a period, knowing that it is temporary and the usual liberties will be restored in due course. Move onto a War footing where the enemy is Covid. People would rather enjoy that, I think. Especially those WWC Leavers. They are always talking about the War.Slackbladder said:I'm not sure a liberal democracy can implement those measures. It's simply not going ot happen.
World War II Britain and America I suppose are an exception, but I'm not sure I'd describe the wartime coalition and propaganda as totalitarian.1 -
Indeed I expect I can be wrong, everyone can be. Indeed I expect to be wrong quite often, that's why my advice for long-term investing is to "buy and hold" rather than to try and gamble and outbid the market. In the long term making fewer decisions means fewer mistakes.GideonWise said:
I think you just need to accept that you can be wrong on things. It's fine, everyone can be from time to time.Philip_Thompson said:
Two million deaths in the UK is closer to reality than 0-100 deaths at best and a bad flu season at worst? I don't think so, I'll be right by an order of magnitude.GideonWise said:Bingo although eadric is far closer to the truth sadly. Unfortunately Phil is digging himself in on this. It suggests some weird inability to process information or a know-it-all can't be wrong mentality. Probably the latter.
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!0 -
Why oh why do they not just use pencil and paper ballots ?eek said:More from the "only America could be this stupid" department
https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1232737097892667392
Bonus points to the first candidate to change their surname to Aardvark at the first opportunity.1 -
Aren’t Boris’s new voters all desperate for Northern infrastructure? So Boris’s Ministers had better start taking the Climate Change Act into account so that their decisions cannot be overturned on challenge or he will have to change/repeal the Act if he wants to get stuff done?TOPPING said:
I find it interesting what with the LHR news and now apparently the road building programme will be binned for the same reason - climate. This is what a nation looks like that wants to cut its carbon emissions: forget recycling your yoghurt pot, we now have a multi-billion pound truncation of investment and therefore economic activity.CarlottaVance said:Extinction Rebellion extinction event?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/27/huge-crowds-expected-for-greta-thunberg-visit-to-bristol
We shall see of course whether this is received well or badly by voters.0 -
Don't look at the price of hand sanitizer on Amazon....Cyclefree said:
Re face masks, I know - but Daughter was being cautious and caring and I am touched.TOPPING said:
We here on PB should know all about charts and graphs. What has been the multi-decadal performance of your pension prior to last Monday?Cyclefree said:
Like me.TOPPING said:
For those with pensions who areMysticrose said:For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Fortunately a lot of my assets are in cash.
So I will have to try and continue working, even in the recession which is coming. Fun times, eh!
Anyway, Daughter - having recovered - has got me face masks and pretty much ordered me to self-isolate (which I am more or less doing) on the grounds, as she put it so eloquently yesterday: “You’re not young, not as fit as you should be and have crap lungs.”
Out of the mouths of babes .....!
And as for face masks - I thought they protected those around you from you, not the other way round,
Re pensions, they’ve done ok. But don’t know figure off top of my head. Have a mixture of final salary and money purchase schemes and have put off claiming them while I can still earn.
I am not going to react to day to day events. I have an advisor to guide me. It is worrying but I try to keep a cool head in a crisis.0 -
I think this is the key point. The situation is clearly serious and IMO wealthy countries have to take a lot of blame for not properly resourcing WHO with sufficient core funding over the past decades. But let's listen to the experts and not play pandemic.Nigelb said:
As I said, you have put together two numbers which no epidemiologist appears to have done.eadric said:
I crunched the numbers yesterday.rkrkrk said:
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
A reasonable worst case scenario for infection is 70% of the population in one year (see my link below)
A reasonable worst case scenario for mortality rate is 4% (Wuhan)
NB it could be worse, the resolved case fatality ratio at the moment is 8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Apply these numbers to 65m Brits and you get 2m dead. Basic maths.
Of course this is WORST CASE SCENARIO so it is inherently unlikely, by definition. But it is not impossible.
Please show me where one has drawn this conclusion.0 -
I'm reminded of the line about George W Bush during the period after the election but before Obama was inaugurated: "Forgotten, but not gone".Cyclefree said:
Nobody is listening to Corbyn anymore. That’s what this prolonged Labour leadership election is so sub-optimal for the country given events.TOPPING said:
Yes the missing PM thing was a good attack line. But, as with Tony Blair when, if you remember, the joke was that he was never in the country (a famous Matt cartoon had someone staring at a plane overhead saying "oh look Tony Blair is having a state visit to the UK") it doesn't matter a jot.FF43 said:
Funnily enough, I caught PMQs this week for the first time in ages. Corbyn actually did quite a good job on the "missing Prime Minister".kinabalu said:
Yes, and what about pressing some questions -Cyclefree said:If we had a half-decent opposition, it would be a tremendous opportunity. Were I the next Labour leader, I would make it a priority to get myself and Shadow Cabinet members on every programme possible to put Labour’s case and show up the government.
Where's that Russia report?
Who paid for Johnson's Xmas holiday?
Why has he taken over the Treasury?
What happened to his pledge to raise the 40p threshold?
Whither the fiscal rules?
No-one was paying any attention, of course.0 -
It's trivial to argue that a high speed rail line powered by renewable electricity will reduce carbon emissions by reducing the number of short-haul flights. Or similarly electrifying a commuter rail line to reduce use of internal combustion engines.Cyclefree said:
Aren’t Boris’s new voters all desperate for Northern infrastructure? So Boris’s Ministers had better start taking the Climate Change Act into account so that their decisions cannot be overturned on challenge or he will have to change/repeal the Act if he wants to get stuff done?TOPPING said:
I find it interesting what with the LHR news and now apparently the road building programme will be binned for the same reason - climate. This is what a nation looks like that wants to cut its carbon emissions: forget recycling your yoghurt pot, we now have a multi-billion pound truncation of investment and therefore economic activity.CarlottaVance said:Extinction Rebellion extinction event?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/27/huge-crowds-expected-for-greta-thunberg-visit-to-bristol
We shall see of course whether this is received well or badly by voters.
The judgement doesn't imply an end to all infrastructure investment of all sorts.0 -
Yes, Sean is multiplying risks, taking the worst case on every variable and then multiplying them all together. Whereas a high infection rate but low death rate, or vice versa, are statistically more probable.rkrkrk said:
I think this is the key point. The situation is clearly serious and IMO wealthy countries have to take a lot of blame for not properly resourcing WHO with sufficient core funding over the past decades. But let's listen to the experts and not play pandemic.Nigelb said:
As I said, you have put together two numbers which no epidemiologist appears to have done.eadric said:
I crunched the numbers yesterday.rkrkrk said:
Got a link for that? (Specifically the 2m figure)eadric said:FPT for philip T
Worst case scenario is 2m dead in the UK, if we get 70% infected and a 4% Wuhan style death rate.
These are not my made up numbers, they are the numbers given by every epidemiologist out there.
2m dead as a worst case scenario is somewhere beyond “a bad flu season”
A reasonable worst case scenario for infection is 70% of the population in one year (see my link below)
A reasonable worst case scenario for mortality rate is 4% (Wuhan)
NB it could be worse, the resolved case fatality ratio at the moment is 8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Apply these numbers to 65m Brits and you get 2m dead. Basic maths.
Of course this is WORST CASE SCENARIO so it is inherently unlikely, by definition. But it is not impossible.
Please show me where one has drawn this conclusion.2 -
He sure will. I doubt there's a planned infrastructure project mooted that complies with the Act, whatever it says!Cyclefree said:
Aren’t Boris’s new voters all desperate for Northern infrastructure? So Boris’s Ministers had better start taking the Climate Change Act into account so that their decisions cannot be overturned on challenge or he will have to change/repeal the Act if he wants to get stuff done?TOPPING said:
I find it interesting what with the LHR news and now apparently the road building programme will be binned for the same reason - climate. This is what a nation looks like that wants to cut its carbon emissions: forget recycling your yoghurt pot, we now have a multi-billion pound truncation of investment and therefore economic activity.CarlottaVance said:Extinction Rebellion extinction event?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/27/huge-crowds-expected-for-greta-thunberg-visit-to-bristol
We shall see of course whether this is received well or badly by voters.0 -
Bit cheesy in parts, Philip, but that is not a bad creative effort.Philip_Thompson said:Two million deaths in the UK is closer to reality than 0-100 deaths at best and a bad flu season at worst? I don't think so, I'll be right by an order of magnitude.
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
Thought of trying it on a wider audience?1 -
Telegraph:
"Capital Economics said the rate of economic contraction is now likely to be a staggering 25pc (annualised) over the first quarter - using proxy measures of real activity - a level unseen in modern times. “For much of February, economic activity effectively ceased in China,” said Mark Williams, the group’s chief Asia economist."
25%? Bloody hell.0 -
I can't really comment on trading strategies. I know nothing about it.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed I expect I can be wrong, everyone can be. Indeed I expect to be wrong quite often, that's why my advice for long-term investing is to "buy and hold" rather than to try and gamble and outbid the market. In the long term making fewer decisions means fewer mistakes.GideonWise said:
I think you just need to accept that you can be wrong on things. It's fine, everyone can be from time to time.Philip_Thompson said:
Two million deaths in the UK is closer to reality than 0-100 deaths at best and a bad flu season at worst? I don't think so, I'll be right by an order of magnitude.GideonWise said:Bingo although eadric is far closer to the truth sadly. Unfortunately Phil is digging himself in on this. It suggests some weird inability to process information or a know-it-all can't be wrong mentality. Probably the latter.
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
But I do know about health data, epidemiology and statistics and to some extent infectious disease modelling. I'm afraid you are wrong on this.0 -
We are better than China on transparency and medical resource per head. But surely they are better than us when it comes to controlling the behaviour of the population. And the latter could become important with this crisis.contrarian said:Surely the opposite is the case. The virus shows the huge weaknesses of the chinese system.
In its initial stagaes it was very difficult to get reliable data on the outbreak because the government was undoubtedy restricting information and silencing whistleblowers.
Even now we have no idea if the official figues from Wuhan are correct or doctored.
Indeed, one of the long term effects of this is a surely a debate about how we deal with China.
It seems right now that anything can be excused because of its size and power. We can now see the drawbacks of that policy.0 -
errr yeah, we're all screwed.rottenborough said:Telegraph:
"Capital Economics said the rate of economic contraction is now likely to be a staggering 25pc (annualised) over the first quarter - using proxy measures of real activity - a level unseen in modern times. “For much of February, economic activity effectively ceased in China,” said Mark Williams, the group’s chief Asia economist."
25%? Bloody hell.0 -
£85.98 a litre !IanB2 said:
Don't look at the price of hand sanitizer on Amazon....Cyclefree said:
Re face masks, I know - but Daughter was being cautious and caring and I am touched.TOPPING said:
We here on PB should know all about charts and graphs. What has been the multi-decadal performance of your pension prior to last Monday?Cyclefree said:
Like me.TOPPING said:
For those with pensions who areMysticrose said:For those of us using Betfair exchange there are of course parallels with stocks and shares. Calling the market, laying and cutting losses, buying when the price is favourable, staying green etc. etc. etc.
No one with any nous ties up their money for a year and waits with their thumb up their bum. You work the market.
To counter this, normally speaking as a general rule in favourable market conditions you can stick your investment into stocks and shares and play the long game, often in the hands of a middle man investor. Fine.
The problem comes when the markets hit a big correction, as now. Then if you don't read it and act fast you can face losses from which you may never recover.
We 'may' be in a situation where some market values don't recover for 5 years or more. For those with pensions this is extremely serious.
Fortunately a lot of my assets are in cash.
So I will have to try and continue working, even in the recession which is coming. Fun times, eh!
Anyway, Daughter - having recovered - has got me face masks and pretty much ordered me to self-isolate (which I am more or less doing) on the grounds, as she put it so eloquently yesterday: “You’re not young, not as fit as you should be and have crap lungs.”
Out of the mouths of babes .....!
And as for face masks - I thought they protected those around you from you, not the other way round,
Re pensions, they’ve done ok. But don’t know figure off top of my head. Have a mixture of final salary and money purchase schemes and have put off claiming them while I can still earn.
I am not going to react to day to day events. I have an advisor to guide me. It is worrying but I try to keep a cool head in a crisis.0 -
Why are people suprised when a totalitarian state does not behave like a liberal democracy in adverse circumstances?rottenborough said:Telegraph:
"Capital Economics said the rate of economic contraction is now likely to be a staggering 25pc (annualised) over the first quarter - using proxy measures of real activity - a level unseen in modern times. “For much of February, economic activity effectively ceased in China,” said Mark Williams, the group’s chief Asia economist."
25%? Bloody hell.
0 -
