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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer looks set for victory but the campaign has told us lit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer looks set for victory but the campaign has told us little about what he stands for
Ever since the first YouGov LAB membership poll at the end of December there has been little doubt that Sir Keir Starmer was likely to be the winner. The ballot forms of being distributed and are now being returned and you can expect maybe half of them to have arrived within the next week.
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Well, duh! (as young people say) - why do you think he's going to win.....
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/keir-starmer-huffpost-interview-bigger-the-win-the-better_uk_5e5516e4c5b6ad3de384561c?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvL0g4NkNiem5xT28_YW1wPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAM2Gy4EjtuoKMRql3Cw-SP7iq06peu6h0sueJ_fMwZDHQVpFfI2h8WiHBuznwGO094MPNUv7AbQUqo8vE76OIH7HY9tnT6vu2V0DRTSPkaleynzy2kLwNNOAjLGK9T4CSXY3p23YUo9RvP_ihzVRJSSuN7gAqVdg_mWFBAESHNsJ
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1232314228674969601
The Right Direction/Wrong Direction question is ABSOLUTELY FASCINATING and totally non-intuitive result on the cross tabs.
https://twitter.com/GeorgePeretzQC/status/1232583519811055618
In a nutshell, it's a bureaucratic nightmare, which will affect even small businesses in NI. In fact it looks completely unworkable. Trouble ahead, I think.
Of course one of us had read the rules and the other is too busy to let experts and documents to get in the way of opinion.
A senior Italian health official investigating the origin of Italy’s outbreak, which has killed 11 and infected over 300 and is now infecting people across the continent, told The Times there was a “concrete hypothesis” that the Chinese couple were the cause.
“Right now it’s the only certain piece of hard data we have,” said Marino Faccini, the head of Milan’s infectious diseases team, which is investigating the outbreak.
Mr Faccini noted that the couple — a man aged 66 and his 65 year old wife — visited Parma in Italy during their January visit, taking them close to 10 towns in Lombardy which have been placed in quarantine after hundreds of cases emerged there at the end of last week. Both Chinese tourists are from Wuhan, where the virus first emerged.
Mr Faccini said the timing of the couple’s visit to Parma after they flew into Milan on January 23 was suspicious, but added, “We know of no contacts yet with people from the towns under lockdown, and possibly never will.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/italy-links-coronavirus-outbreak-to-chinese-tourists-p8002005p
It's not as though there isn't plenty of other ammunition to use against Boris.
"To tell you the truth, I don't know myself ... but I believe it is principally opportunism".
I presume by dragging through the ECJ.
Maybe the UK is gambling that’d take too long so they have some time to work out its compliant operation beyond day one.
Surely the truth is multiple carriers have arrived in Italy. Indeed multiple carriers have probably arrived in most countries but there seems to be a long incubation period before sypmptoms appear.
Wikipedia has a good summary of the Italian outbreak.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy
This is surely the gamble of the NIP - goods going West matters less to NI economy than goods going East.
https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa008/5704418
https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/24/austerity-blamed-for-life-expectancy-stalling-for-first-time-in-century?
I don’t doubt that it’s possible budget reductions might have had an impact on life expectancy. However, some other factors that this report ignores:
> Record employment (moving people off benefit should lead to both better mental health and increased incomes)
> Changed attitudes to mental health over the last ten years (better support and recognition of problems)
> Dietary changes (more sugar and fats in our food and more convenience food)
> Sedentary lifestyle changes (people glued to their phones and doing less exercise)
> Higher numbers of marriages and reduced divorces (which you’d think would lead to greater family stability and resilience)
As far as I can tell the report barely considers any of these factors, which leads to me to believe they’d already reached their conclusions before they’d started it.
It wouldn’t totally abrogate on it.
Besides which it’s size and scale is still “TBC” in the full FTA negotiations, so I’d expect there’d be some leeway granted going into 2021 anyway.
Very few people will be able to get ready in 6-8 weeks at the back end of this year, still less the Government.
Marino Faccini, the head of Milan’s infectious diseases team,... noted that the couple — a man aged 66 and his 65 year old wife — visited Parma in Italy during their January visit, taking them close to 10 towns in Lombardy which have been placed in quarantine after hundreds of cases emerged there at the end of last week. Both Chinese tourists are from Wuhan, where the virus first emerged.
Mr Faccini said the timing of the couple’s visit to Parma after they flew into Milan on January 23 was suspicious, but added, “We know of no contacts yet with people from the towns under lockdown, and possibly never will.” [my bold]
What about all the others who travelled from China to Italy?
If Canada no tariffs, and reduced non tariff barriers is not an option. Let them build their infrastructure at the border. Our commitment is to maintain existing regulatory alignment. A very generous offer. The era of vast extended global supply chains working on ‘just in time’ is likely to be collapsing around our ears right now.
Suspected case of coronavirus in one of the site offices. Unconfirmed.
Cross rail - let’s not panic. But panic anyway.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1232652371832004608
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html
I stocked up for 2-3 weeks about a fortnight ago.
Not for a siege but just because I’m assuming a peak interruption to supply chains at some point (we know this thing peaks over a 2-3 month period, and then drops).
It’s one of our two primary management buildings.
Everyone has been sent home.
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1232675095577079808
And you think the EU are going to be unreasonable over the trade negotiation. I can't think why.
So many Brexiteers still fighting the war we all assumed they had already won.
There was some talk at the time of this representing a "tipping point" following which Yes would surge further ahead.
Probably too early to say but talk of a surge, and there was some, appears to be premature.
(Another theory is that the move to Yes was a Brexit blip caused by our departure from the EU, and that things would fall back to the prevailing narrow No lead. This poll seems to support that contention but, as I say, too early to tell).
I think Italy v England will also be postponed.
Juve playing in Lyon tonight
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00551-1
That said, I don't see why the UK legislating to restrict UK businesses from doing business would be in breach of the WA anyway?
https://twitter.com/HossmanAtHome/status/1232451339222802433?s=20
Because if anything bad does happen in the US, it can be blamed on him not taking it seriously. And healthcare is also a subject matter that President Trump would be well advised to stay as far away from as possible, because it's the only area where the Democrats have consistent and commanding poll leads.
But I'm sure the American civil service will be preparing hard. Just a shame they are ruled by absolute fools, starting right at the top.
All those Americans posting questions on travel forums along the lines of “will Rome be safe in April” will soon be worrying about staying at home. Until summer arrives, at least.
Real world demand for ordinary Jo people to be able to buy things they didn't have the money for - and, relatedly, for governments to sign off market behaviour that enabled that, was just as much a driver.
Certainly, banks wanted to make profits, as did traders and so on - but at the bottom of it all were real people who also wanted to live a lifestyle they couldn't afford.