politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Expect Warren to get the biggest boost from last night – and t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Expect Warren to get the biggest boost from last night – and that could be at the expense of Sanders
One of the reasons why Sanders has soared in the polling in recent weeks has been that his main opponent on the progressive wing, Elizabeth Warren, has been falling like a lead balloon. This followed her less than convincing performances in Iowa and New Hampshire.
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Edit/ oops. Third like Eadric, again.
Also, even if Biden had underperformed his polls in a hypothetical first-in-the-nation SC then he'd still have won it comfortably given his ~20% leads there pre-Iowa. That would have given him a boost just like Sanders winning NH by a slim margin given the demographics gave him a sizeable national boost.
Biden and Sanders are rubbish.
Who do you think the next President will be
So the next President might well be Mike Pence in 2025.
Looking further ahead, there is the significant probability of Sanders getting more delegates than anyone else but not a majority or a decisive plurality. That is likely to trigger horse-trading and perhaps bring the super-delegates into play. That would would be a very messy and bitter shambles, with Sanders supporters distinctly dischuffed if their man is 'robbed' of the nomination ('robbed' as in 'he lost according to the rules'). That would be great for Trump, of course.
What I think this means is that the Dem Nom contest is more open than it looks.
Anyway, I've followed up my lay of Michael Bloomberg yesterday with a further lay of Bernie Sanders today. So I'm deep red on the two favourites. Let no one say I play it safe!
Making a real prediction entails saying what you believe and being prepared to back it up with a reason, not just parroting what an opinion poll says today.
In his first public statement on Priti Patel’s plans, Carlaw told reporters at Holyrood he has been pressurising the home secretary to relax many of the obstacles to low-skilled, low-waged migrants she plans to introduce.
Carlaw described Patel’s proposals as a “work in progress”, implying they broke the Scottish party’s manifesto pledges in December’s general election to introduce a system which worked for Scotland, particularly in remote areas suffering depopulation.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/20/scottish-tories-urge-rethink-over-points-based-immigration?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1230358232201334785?s=21
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/home-secretary-priti-patel-is-accused-of-bullying-and-creating-atmosphere-of-fear-in-her-department-amid-claims-she-attempted-to-oust-her-most-senior-civil-servant/ar-BB10bvRv?ocid=spartanntp
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1230545347044368386
Why would Warren gain at the expense of Sanders when she went after Bloomberg?
Why would Buttigieg gain after his nasty fights with Klobuchar?
Biden could be the one but confidence in his candidacy has been badly shaken for months now.
Right now Bloomberg's articifial vote share could be redistributed to many different candidates.
https://twitter.com/Marvel/status/1230243160112148480?s=20
If you're suggesting we should let Patel get on with her job for a decade and then postpone any peerage she might get post-retirement until after a belated allegation then that's an interesting proposal.
(I did it several hours before this post in case anyone thinks I’m a copycat)
The numpty needs to understand the Welsh labour government are responsible here in Wales and it is his fellow Corbynista, Mark Drakeford's responsibilty.
Mind you, he is as useless as Corbyn
https://twitter.com/Marvel/status/1230193166688694273?s=20
(Well in three different guises.)
Tumbleweed is thy name.
From the Republican side you can have Pence, DeSandis, some Senator or two, or one of the Trump kids.
From the Democratic side, Warren, Yang, Klobuchar, Kamala will definitely run again, Beto, Buttigieg, Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders won't.
Who knows about Booker.
Grammar is horrible though - hills echoes?
It's all some kind of project to exert control by the Left.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1230536112780849153
I was just going to point that out. I think they have made the rookie error of conflating Union Jack and England (or perhaps they really are being meta satirical).
I think it really depends on the national polling face-ups with Trump. And that there’s consensus on who that compromise candidate could be.
I’m willing to speculate a liability of £500 on it at current odds. But there’s a good chance I lose because it might just be easier for the convention to say yes to Sanders in a very divided moderate field, and with national face ups not looking decisive either way.
'Cross? I'm fcuking fuming!'
Edit: I hope they don't make any changes to these after what I am sure will be intense internet mockery, I haven't chuckled like this for ages.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-19/virus-cuts-china-s-carbon-emissions-by-100-million-metric-tons
That’ll get the Ain’t No Black in the Union Jack John Bullers excited.