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OldKingCole said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gallowgate said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Students say they don't understand university offer-making. This must change

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/17/students-say-they-dont-understand-university-offer-making-this-must-change

If Boris / Big Dom want to level the playing field, post-exam entry is the easiest and fairest policy to push.

How would that work in practice? You apply after you get your A Level results?

Yes. This has been floated a number of times before, including by Gove / Big Dom, but many universities hate it as it messes with their summer vacations.

Basically you adjust when A-Levels are taken to be earlier in the year, then get results back to kids early summer and they then apply.

And very few other countries do that. The way we do it is the norm.

Do you have the figures to back that up?

IshmaelZ said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

The current assumptions are:
(1) that the draconian steps taken in China are working as shown by the 4 day trend in the reducing number of diagnosed cases.
(2) that the death rate outside China suggests 1% mortality way well prove to be pessimistic.
(3) that this will calm down in the summer months in the same way as SARS did.
(4) At the current rate of spread outside China we are likely to have a vaccine before this gets too serious.
(5) The Chinese economy has the capacity to bounce back very strongly once the panic is over.

Some or all of these assumptions may prove to be optimistic. I agree that it is surprising that it is not getting more attention.

Assumptions 2 - 4 are based on very little evidence, as it simply hasn't been loose for long enough outside of China to give us much in the way of hard data. We'll have a far better idea in two to three weeks' time.
What's for sure is that Japan is starting to think that the infection is outside of their control now...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-seized-with-anxiety-over-homegrown-outbreak
This is nothing like SARS, which was far easier to identify and contain.
Having a vaccine available in quantity might take up to eighteen months.

According to our pension fund managers the view in London seems to be that this is a Q1 story. I increasingly have my doubts.

If you believe pension fund managers, you'll believe anyone. They are masters at sounding plausible and informed.

16% capital growth last year on moderate/low risk. #justsaying

Benchmark?

They have different bench marks for fixed income and equity but both are based on tracker performance of the relevant indices and both are comfortably exceeded in recent times.

Gallowgate said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

OldKingCole said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Students say they don't understand university offer-making. This must change

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/17/students-say-they-dont-understand-university-offer-making-this-must-change

If Boris / Big Dom want to level the playing field, post-exam entry is the easiest and fairest policy to push.

If some students don’t understand the offer making system then I would politely suggest that perhaps university is not the correct route for them.

More seriously, what are their teachers telling them? It is no more complicated than some PR voting systems.
Post exam entry would be great for schools as they wouldn’t be our responsibility any more. I’m not sure that would help disadvantaged students, although that might be offset by the elimination of state schools tendency to under predict grades compared to the fee paying sector.

Choosing which Uni's to apply to is dependent upon more than academic grounds. Going back 60 years my sister had the choice of London or Nottingham. Nottingham was the choice, because, as my mother said, she'd have to live away from home and learn to cope with world.
Both my sons did what I did; went to the first place which accepted them. Granddaughter One is currently applying to do a taught PhD and her choice is likely to be made on ease of travel from where she and her beloved are living.

I’ve seen a lot of students decide based on the quality of the night life they were expecting.

Newcastle should be everyone’s first choice then.

Not that your biased or anything ;-)

Gallowgate said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

OldKingCole said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Students say they don't understand university offer-making. This must change

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/17/students-say-they-dont-understand-university-offer-making-this-must-change

If Boris / Big Dom want to level the playing field, post-exam entry is the easiest and fairest policy to push.

If some students don’t understand the offer making system then I would politely suggest that perhaps university is not the correct route for them.

More seriously, what are their teachers telling them? It is no more complicated than some PR voting systems.
Post exam entry would be great for schools as they wouldn’t be our responsibility any more. I’m not sure that would help disadvantaged students, although that might be offset by the elimination of state schools tendency to under predict grades compared to the fee paying sector.

Choosing which Uni's to apply to is dependent upon more than academic grounds. Going back 60 years my sister had the choice of London or Nottingham. Nottingham was the choice, because, as my mother said, she'd have to live away from home and learn to cope with world.
Both my sons did what I did; went to the first place which accepted them. Granddaughter One is currently applying to do a taught PhD and her choice is likely to be made on ease of travel from where she and her beloved are living.

I’ve seen a lot of students decide based on the quality of the night life they were expecting.

Newcastle should be everyone’s first choice then.

I know that Durham is normally a second choice...

kinabalu said:

BluestBlue said:

Research has found that stimulation of the brain centres responsible for fear and disgust causes a marked (temporary!) shift towards right-wing political positions. E.g. showing someone a video of wriggling maggots will lead them to express harsher views on border control. If coronavirus is the main story of 2020, then the right should benefit.

On the other hand, so might the candidate proposing a free universal healthcare system...

I thought the Right was about "aspiration" not fear of maggots?

Right wing in this case in a law and order sense. I don't think you can shift someone to becoming a free marketeer in thsi way. Although the human brain is such a peculiar thing that there almost certainly is a way of subliminally encouraging libertarianism.

'Behave' by Robert Sapolsky is very interesting in this respect (and many others).
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Behave-Biology-Humans-Best-Worst/dp/1594205078

DavidL said:

IshmaelZ said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

The current assumptions are:
(1) that the draconian steps taken in China are working as shown by the 4 day trend in the reducing number of diagnosed cases.
(2) that the death rate outside China suggests 1% mortality way well prove to be pessimistic.
(3) that this will calm down in the summer months in the same way as SARS did.
(4) At the current rate of spread outside China we are likely to have a vaccine before this gets too serious.
(5) The Chinese economy has the capacity to bounce back very strongly once the panic is over.

Some or all of these assumptions may prove to be optimistic. I agree that it is surprising that it is not getting more attention.

Assumptions 2 - 4 are based on very little evidence, as it simply hasn't been loose for long enough outside of China to give us much in the way of hard data. We'll have a far better idea in two to three weeks' time.
What's for sure is that Japan is starting to think that the infection is outside of their control now...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-seized-with-anxiety-over-homegrown-outbreak
This is nothing like SARS, which was far easier to identify and contain.
Having a vaccine available in quantity might take up to eighteen months.

According to our pension fund managers the view in London seems to be that this is a Q1 story. I increasingly have my doubts.

If you believe pension fund managers, you'll believe anyone. They are masters at sounding plausible and informed.

16% capital growth last year on moderate/low risk. #justsaying

Benchmark?

They have different bench marks for fixed income and equity but both are based on tracker performance of the relevant indices and both are comfortably exceeded in recent times.

Tracker performances! Your fund managers are very lucky. They get a 0.5% a year headstart relative to how it used tobe in my day, when you were expected to beat the index on an after fees basis by 1.5-2.0% per year.

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SirNorfolk had it absoltely right.

It was impossible to picture QI with Stephen Fry... until it wasn't.

MOTD should get rid of Lineker and watch as viewing figures plummet... maybe 10%?

Considering the Beeb doesn't bother to charge its viewers or raise ad revenue from its viewers etc what difference does it make whether the viewing figures go up or down?

If the Beeb is producing MOTD because its "culturally significant" or something like that despite the fact that all highlights are available for free on YouTube anyway then what difference does it make how many viewers its getting? How is it less culturally significant just because it has a different presenter?

I am not sure what MOTD USP is these days. Highlights are available for free hours before (and full game if you subscribe to Sky) , the analysis provided isn't particularly insightful i.e. it isn't TIFO football, StatsBomb or even Gary Neville.

Long gone are the days when it was THE only place you could see footage of a match.

Indeed, and it’s only a matter of time until the 3pm blackout rule goes away too, as the war against the internet is only going to end in the internet winning.

Tifo football had an article about just how much money EPL could make out of cutting out Sky etc. In their opinion they would probably only try it out in a few foreign markets as you need to localize your commentary, provide magazine shows etc to fill the channel, but they missing out (even if it required partnering with Amazon for the tech).

And if they ran an EPL "Goal-Zone" service akin to the Red-Zone, they would absolutely coin it in, and could also cover themselves against claims of killing attendance as you don't get to see the whole match.

Goal zone would be tough to do though, the pace of American Football is much slower - you have 40 seconds of play clock to get to first and 15, the ball being in the final third of a PL pitch ?
That changes in seconds.

Not impossible, if you use a short delay, thus you know if an attack is going to produce a chance. The technology is already there to automatically clip video based upon resultant actions (without any human interaction), it is already used to package up highlights. I believe you can advance this kind of system to interweave the footage on a short delay.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SirNorfolk had it absoltely right.

It was impossible to picture QI with Stephen Fry... until it wasn't.

MOTD should get rid of Lineker and watch as viewing figures plummet... maybe 10%?

Considering the Beeb doesn't bother to charge its viewers or raise ad revenue from its viewers etc what difference does it make whether the viewing figures go up or down?

If the Beeb is producing MOTD because its "culturally significant" or something like that despite the fact that all highlights are available for free on YouTube anyway then what difference does it make how many viewers its getting? How is it less culturally significant just because it has a different presenter?

I am not sure what MOTD USP is these days. Highlights are available for free hours before (and full game if you subscribe to Sky) , the analysis provided isn't particularly insightful i.e. it isn't TIFO football, StatsBomb or even Gary Neville.

Long gone are the days when it was THE only place you could see footage of a match.

Indeed, and it’s only a matter of time until the 3pm blackout rule goes away too, as the war against the internet is only going to end in the internet winning.

Tifo football had an article about just how much money EPL could make out of cutting out Sky etc. In their opinion they would probably only try it out in a few foreign markets as you need to localize your commentary, provide magazine shows etc to fill the channel, but they missing out (even if it required partnering with Amazon for the tech).

And if they ran an EPL "Goal-Zone" service akin to the Red-Zone, they would absolutely coin it in, and could also cover themselves against claims of killing attendance as you don't get to see the whole match.

It’s something that F1 are trying out, a £10 a month subscription in a few markets including the USA. After a few teething problems and technical gremlins last year, it will be interesting to see how it does this year.

I imagine that a lot of other sports are following this business model closely, it only needs a few million worldwide subscribers to bring in serious amounts of revenue. IIRC the Prem League makes around £1bn from overseas rights, that’s equivalent to 10m people paying £100 a season (minus a few million for production and distribution, which is currently done by the TV companies themselves). Get that 10m people up to 50m and they’ll make more revenue overseas than they do in the U.K.

Sandpit said:

It’s something that F1 are trying out, a £10 a month subscription in a few markets including the USA. After a few teething problems and technical gremlins last year, it will be interesting to see how it does this year.

I imagine that a lot of other sports are following this business model closely, it only needs a few million worldwide subscribers to bring in serious amounts of revenue. IIRC the Prem League makes around £1bn from overseas rights, that’s equivalent to 10m people paying £100 a season (minus a few million for production and distribution, which is currently done by the TV companies themselves). Get that 10m people up to 50m and they’ll make more revenue overseas than they do in the U.K.

The only big thing the EPL has, the rights to the entire back catalogue of games. Already the likes of UFC have fight pass, which is obviously the current fights but also you can go back and watch anything from the past.

With a bit of creativity, I can imagine people quite enjoying say a personalized highlight reel of goals of the season (for their team) or a players best momemts over their career. This is all entirety do-able with technology which can auto-clip video highlights, extract goals etc.

Gallowgate said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

OldKingCole said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Students say they don't understand university offer-making. This must change

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/17/students-say-they-dont-understand-university-offer-making-this-must-change

If Boris / Big Dom want to level the playing field, post-exam entry is the easiest and fairest policy to push.

If some students don’t understand the offer making system then I would politely suggest that perhaps university is not the correct route for them.

More seriously, what are their teachers telling them? It is no more complicated than some PR voting systems.
Post exam entry would be great for schools as they wouldn’t be our responsibility any more. I’m not sure that would help disadvantaged students, although that might be offset by the elimination of state schools tendency to under predict grades compared to the fee paying sector.

Choosing which Uni's to apply to is dependent upon more than academic grounds. Going back 60 years my sister had the choice of London or Nottingham. Nottingham was the choice, because, as my mother said, she'd have to live away from home and learn to cope with world.
Both my sons did what I did; went to the first place which accepted them. Granddaughter One is currently applying to do a taught PhD and her choice is likely to be made on ease of travel from where she and her beloved are living.

I’ve seen a lot of students decide based on the quality of the night life they were expecting.

Newcastle should be everyone’s first choice then.

On Newcastle - things may have changed, but twenty and twenty five years ago it really didn't have much more in the way of night life than any other city of its size. But what it did have was a population who believed it was the best night out in the world. And that alone is enough to make it a good night out.

Looking back to the mid 90s, I chose the closest university which was in a different TV region. So it felt like going away, but really wasn't.

This seemed a very common approach. From my school in Stockport, the biggest destinations by some way were Sheffield, Leeds and Nottingham, followed by Birmingham. Of the Oxbridge bunch, who were a bit sui generis, almost all went to Oxford. Very few people ended up more than about three hours away. But even fewer stayed in the North West. It just wasn't really done.
And while I don't regret where I went or how life panned out, really as an 18 year old I'd have been much better off emotionally staying in Greater Manchester.

kinabalu said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

I’ve seen a lot of students decide based on the quality of the night life they were expecting.

I chose on location - central London.

Incredible, looking back, barely 18 and transported from Yorkshire mining town to South Kensington, own room, no fees, grant enough to live on and get pissed every single day. Even the odd meal too.

#thosewerethedays

Student self-catering = spag bol
Sophisticated student cooking = spag bol and a bottle of wine
Michelin-starred student cooking = call the spag bol lasagne

It is getting quite exciting in Nevada
https://twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1229203926655868929?s=20

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I just have to say the media orgy over Scholfield and Caroline Flack is out of control.

Thousands of ordinary folks are fighting against the weather, flooded properties, and closed businesses, the virus is causing serious worries to many people and is in danger of devastating the worlds economies and yet we have to listen to second rate celebrities going on about the wicked way of the press and media, even resurrecting hacked off, when in truth no one makes them go on social media and controlling social media is now virtually impossible

I am not saying both Scholfield and Caroline Flack are not stories but that they do not merit the wall to wall coverage. All suicides are sad and some of our children's peers have sadly committed suicide over the years and long before social media but moderation in all things please

Depends what coverage you're watching I suppose. Most coverage I've seen regarding Flack has been coverage talking about mental health issues, support groups that are available like the Samaritans, symptoms, how to cope etc - giving advice and support to people that have issues rather than paying overly much attention to Flack herself.

I don't see that as a bad thing. If the coverage you're seeing is just about Flack herself then switch over to something less trashy.

It is well over the top on both of them by a country mile. You wouldhave to avoid all MSM not to be bombarded with it.

OldKingCole said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Students say they don't understand university offer-making. This must change

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/17/students-say-they-dont-understand-university-offer-making-this-must-change

If Boris / Big Dom want to level the playing field, post-exam entry is the easiest and fairest policy to push.

If some students don’t understand the offer making system then I would politely suggest that perhaps university is not the correct route for them.

More seriously, what are their teachers telling them? It is no more complicated than some PR voting systems.
Post exam entry would be great for schools as they wouldn’t be our responsibility any more. I’m not sure that would help disadvantaged students, although that might be offset by the elimination of state schools tendency to under predict grades compared to the fee paying sector.

Choosing which Uni's to apply to is dependent upon more than academic grounds. Going back 60 years my sister had the choice of London or Nottingham. Nottingham was the choice, because, as my mother said, she'd have to live away from home and learn to cope with world.
Both my sons did what I did; went to the first place which accepted them. Granddaughter One is currently applying to do a taught PhD and her choice is likely to be made on ease of travel from where she and her beloved are living.

I'd be a bit wary of that as I vaguely recall evidence that students living at home and commuting are more likely to drop out, though I guess even if true, that things may be different for PhDs.

MikeSmithson said:

It is getting quite exciting in Nevada
ttps://twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1229203926655868929?s=20

What happens in Vegas..

malcolmg said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I just have to say the media orgy over Scholfield and Caroline Flack is out of control.

Thousands of ordinary folks are fighting against the weather, flooded properties, and closed businesses, the virus is causing serious worries to many people and is in danger of devastating the worlds economies and yet we have to listen to second rate celebrities going on about the wicked way of the press and media, even resurrecting hacked off, when in truth no one makes them go on social media and controlling social media is now virtually impossible

I am not saying both Scholfield and Caroline Flack are not stories but that they do not merit the wall to wall coverage. All suicides are sad and some of our children's peers have sadly committed suicide over the years and long before social media but moderation in all things please

Depends what coverage you're watching I suppose. Most coverage I've seen regarding Flack has been coverage talking about mental health issues, support groups that are available like the Samaritans, symptoms, how to cope etc - giving advice and support to people that have issues rather than paying overly much attention to Flack herself.

I don't see that as a bad thing. If the coverage you're seeing is just about Flack herself then switch over to something less trashy.

It is well over the top on both of them by a country mile. You wouldhave to avoid all MSM not to be bombarded with it.

I got a little of Schofield on R5. Bewildering. Other than that... Maybe I am not as up with the zeitgeist as I thought.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OldKingCole said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Students say they don't understand university offer-making. This must change

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/17/students-say-they-dont-understand-university-offer-making-this-must-change

If Boris / Big Dom want to level the playing field, post-exam entry is the easiest and fairest policy to push.

If some students don’t understand the offer making system then I would politely suggest that perhaps university is not the correct route for them.

More seriously, what are their teachers telling them? It is no more complicated than some PR voting systems.
Post exam entry would be great for schools as they wouldn’t be our responsibility any more. I’m not sure that would help disadvantaged students, although that might be offset by the elimination of state schools tendency to under predict grades compared to the fee paying sector.

Choosing which Uni's to apply to is dependent upon more than academic grounds. Going back 60 years my sister had the choice of London or Nottingham. Nottingham was the choice, because, as my mother said, she'd have to live away from home and learn to cope with world.
Both my sons did what I did; went to the first place which accepted them. Granddaughter One is currently applying to do a taught PhD and her choice is likely to be made on ease of travel from where she and her beloved are living.

I'd be a bit wary of that as I vaguely recall evidence that students living at home and commuting are more likely to drop out, though I guess even if true, that things may be different for PhDs.

She did her first degree 250 miles from home, and she's so motivated that I don't see it as a problem.
Grandson 2 is 'considering his options' and, IMHO regrettably he's within easy reach of London. However, last I heard Cardiff was uppermost in his mind.
Personally, although it was EVER such a long time ago I went 300 miles from home and it was one of the best things I ever did.

Henrietta2 said:

An adviser in the prime minister's office is on record as saying he thinks black people are on average born mentally inferior to white people - and not only does the man stay in Number 10 having not repudiated his published view, but the spokesman for a prime minister who has called black people "piccaninnies" (a word used in the Eurosceptic Enoch Powell's famous "blood" speech) refuses to say whether the prime himself minister agrees. Something is going very seriously wrong in this country. The balloon is up.

Fun times. But everyone knew what Johnson was when they voted for him. He has not ever attempted to hide his racism. He has been very open about it for a number of years.

Henrietta2 said:

An adviser in the prime minister's office is on record as saying he thinks black people are on average born mentally inferior to white people - and not only does the man stay in Number 10 having not repudiated his published view, but the spokesman for a prime minister who has called black people "piccaninnies" (a word used in the Eurosceptic Enoch Powell's famous "blood" speech) refuses to say whether the prime himself minister agrees. Something is going very seriously wrong in this country. The balloon is up.

I'm listening to 'How to Argue with a Racist, a BBC Sounds podcast, and the speaker makes the point that not only are there more genetic differences between African 'nations' than there are between European ones, but that, of course, all our ancestors were in Africa up to around 100,000 years ago.

Interesting from Hong Kong on coronavirus:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/listen-facts-rumours-colin-cohen/?trackingId=PFH9y8pCPg/w8TXGmdjNWQ==

This is probably a bit too bullish, but talk of thre place closing down and everyone being in a blind panic is somewhat overdone. Our office there is still open, though peop ehave the option to work from home. Some do and some don't. Life is quieter, it seems, but is going on. Maybe that is a mistake, though.

AlastairMeeks said:

Six months ago I was assured that the nominee would almost certainly be one of Joe Biden, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders.

It might yet be, of course, but such certainty looks ill-judged now.

The market seems to have decided it won't be Elizabeth Warren. Given she's third in the notoriously hard to poll state of Nevada, and hasn't crumbled in national polling (She may also be suffering some differential non response bias) £9 at 80.0 looks a nice opportunity to level her up to me.

Ms. Henrietta, aye. Their tactics are despicable. And, if they want anything other than media attention, utterly counter-productive.

A smart person would co-ordinate a grassroots flood assistance scheme to help those on the ground. A cretin would dig up some grass and block ambulances.

People convinced of their own righteousness are often the most wretched.

Mr. Rich, self-absorbed disruption of other people's lives has an anarchic flavour.

You're right about them wanting to impose their religion on every heathen in the land, though.

AlastairMeeks said:

Six months ago I was assured that the nominee would almost certainly be one of Joe Biden, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders.

It might yet be, of course, but such certainty looks ill-judged now.

It almost certainly is going to be one of those.

Philip_Thompson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SirNorfolk had it absoltely right.

It was impossible to picture QI with Stephen Fry... until it wasn't.

MOTD should get rid of Lineker and watch as viewing figures plummet... maybe 10%?

Considering the Beeb doesn't bother to charge its viewers or raise ad revenue from its viewers etc what difference does it make whether the viewing figures go up or down?

If the Beeb is producing MOTD because its "culturally significant" or something like that despite the fact that all highlights are available for free on YouTube anyway then what difference does it make how many viewers its getting? How is it less culturally significant just because it has a different presenter?

God you are boring in this. So you hate the BBC. Get a life.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, and then there's blocking an ambulance.

https://twitter.com/MattBirdLabour/status/1229054763775483907

Maybe someone should tell the rozzers one of the anarchists tweeted a transphobic poem.

That si sick , they should have ran the morons over

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Abolish interviews, personal statements and all that biased, time-consuming, labour-intensive, and subjective malarkey and then randomly assign applicants who pass the exams to places. It would take a few seconds on the Met Office's new computer from the last thread.

Yes. And in same spirit -

Get rid of grades for A levels. Just mark out of 100 and add them up.

So, entry requirement not 3 As in XYZ but (say) 250 aggregate points in XYZ with not less than 65 in any.

50 places available? Take the top 50 aggregate qualifying scores - after knocking off 25 points for private school applicants.

Simple. Clear. Cheap. Future proofed.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rich, self-absorbed disruption of other people's lives has an anarchic flavour.

You're right about them wanting to impose their religion on every heathen in the land, though.

Mr Dancer,

XR are very annoying people who's own actions undermine there own arguments.

however bringing disruption to other peoples lives maybe chaotic but is not anarchic.

Anarchic would be leaving people alone do do there own thing, at least according to my understanding of the word. I of course can not speak to how others perceive or miss-perceive the word.

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting from Hong Kong on coronavirus:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/listen-facts-rumours-colin-cohen/?trackingId=PFH9y8pCPg/w8TXGmdjNWQ==

This is probably a bit too bullish, but talk of thre place closing down and everyone being in a blind panic is somewhat overdone. Our office there is still open, though peop ehave the option to work from home. Some do and some don't. Life is quieter, it seems, but is going on. Maybe that is a mistake, though.

Interesting quote in the medical link in that piece:

"So far this epidemic has infected 71,309 people and caused 1,775 deaths. In comparison so far in the USA this winter influenza has infected 22-31 million people and resulted in between 12,000 and 30,000 deaths."

A useful sense of perspective.

eadric said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting from Hong Kong on coronavirus:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/listen-facts-rumours-colin-cohen/?trackingId=PFH9y8pCPg/w8TXGmdjNWQ==

This is probably a bit too bullish, but talk of thre place closing down and everyone being in a blind panic is somewhat overdone. Our office there is still open, though peop ehave the option to work from home. Some do and some don't. Life is quieter, it seems, but is going on. Maybe that is a mistake, though.

Interesting quote in the medical link in that piece:

"So far this epidemic has infected 71,309 people and caused 1,775 deaths. In comparison so far in the USA this winter influenza has infected 22-31 million people and resulted in between 12,000 and 30,000 deaths."

A useful sense of perspective.

Flu is not going to infect 40-70% of the world, tho.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/harvard-professor-sounds-alarm-on-likely-coronavirus-pandemic-40-to-70-of-world-could-be-infected-this-year/

Harvard Professor or Hong Kong banker? Take yer pick.

I'd sell at 40%.

rcs1000 said:

I was just poking fun at my old profession.

The reality is that as a PM you get hired for two reasons: (1) you produce decent investment returns, and (2) you can talk plausibly about pretty much anything going on in the world economy, and can relate it to how incredibly well positioned the fund is.

My only advice for anyone investing money is this: most portfolio managers have a style bias. They may not know it themselves, but they will prefer tech stocks, or oil stocks, or growth stock, or emerging market exposed stocks, or whatever. When their style is in favour, they'll perform well. When their style goes out of favour, they'll perform poorly. The number of PMs who can spin on a sixpence, and hate social media stocks one meeting and love them the next is pretty small. And the number of investment committees that realise that the ability to change one's mind is an asset and not a liability is close to zero.

Yes. Faced with the choice between 2 Fund Managers both of whom are respected and have been around for a while.

Garry has had 3 good years in a row. Barry has had 3 mediocre years in a row.

I'm going with Baz.

This is a good point.

https://www.twitter.com/YasMohammedxx/status/1229446874584600576

I see someone has polled who will win Kansas in the general election. Thank goodness they didn't waste our time with a poll of the Democrat primary in Nevada or South Carolina.

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Six months ago I was assured that the nominee would almost certainly be one of Joe Biden, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders.

It might yet be, of course, but such certainty looks ill-judged now.

The market seems to have decided it won't be Elizabeth Warren. Given she's third in the notoriously hard to poll state of Nevada, and hasn't crumbled in national polling (She may also be suffering some differential non response bias) £9 at 80.0 looks a nice opportunity to level her up to me.

My Girl!

I feel the big Liz needs a hugely strong showing in Nevada to stay on the track.

She must be furious that Sanders has basically escaped the scrutiny that she got when she was favourite.

DavidL said:

IshmaelZ said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

The current assumptions are:
(1) that the draconian steps taken in China are working as shown by the 4 day trend in the reducing number of diagnosed cases.
(2) that the death rate outside China suggests 1% mortality way well prove to be pessimistic.
(3) that this will calm down in the summer months in the same way as SARS did.
(4) At the current rate of spread outside China we are likely to have a vaccine before this gets too serious.
(5) The Chinese economy has the capacity to bounce back very strongly once the panic is over.

Some or all of these assumptions may prove to be optimistic. I agree that it is surprising that it is not getting more attention.

Assumptions 2 - 4 are based on very little evidence, as it simply hasn't been loose for long enough outside of China to give us much in the way of hard data. We'll have a far better idea in two to three weeks' time.
What's for sure is that Japan is starting to think that the infection is outside of their control now...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-seized-with-anxiety-over-homegrown-outbreak
This is nothing like SARS, which was far easier to identify and contain.
Having a vaccine available in quantity might take up to eighteen months.

According to our pension fund managers the view in London seems to be that this is a Q1 story. I increasingly have my doubts.

If you believe pension fund managers, you'll believe anyone. They are masters at sounding plausible and informed.

16% capital growth last year on moderate/low risk. #justsaying

Benchmark?

They have different bench marks for fixed income and equity but both are based on tracker performance of the relevant indices and both are comfortably exceeded in recent times.

The vast majority of managed funds are beating trackers recently simply because the biggest stocks have underperformed the market and are disproportionately held by trackers. It is not a good sign that managed funds are better than trackers, will outperform trackers in the long run or that your managers have any special talent.

DavidL said:

eadric said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting from Hong Kong on coronavirus:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/listen-facts-rumours-colin-cohen/?trackingId=PFH9y8pCPg/w8TXGmdjNWQ==

This is probably a bit too bullish, but talk of thre place closing down and everyone being in a blind panic is somewhat overdone. Our office there is still open, though peop ehave the option to work from home. Some do and some don't. Life is quieter, it seems, but is going on. Maybe that is a mistake, though.

Interesting quote in the medical link in that piece:

"So far this epidemic has infected 71,309 people and caused 1,775 deaths. In comparison so far in the USA this winter influenza has infected 22-31 million people and resulted in between 12,000 and 30,000 deaths."

A useful sense of perspective.

Flu is not going to infect 40-70% of the world, tho.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/harvard-professor-sounds-alarm-on-likely-coronavirus-pandemic-40-to-70-of-world-could-be-infected-this-year/

Harvard Professor or Hong Kong banker? Take yer pick.

The quotation comes from a medical doctor in HK that the banker links to. The professor is using a very simple model and arithmetic for which we don't have any useful inputs. He may be right of course but we just don't know.

Flu may not infect 40-70% of the world.

Covid19 isn't however a flu virus it's a Coronavirus like the common cold.

malcolmg said:

He was all over the news for days all because the cowardly rat decided after being married for 27 years that he was homosexual. The outpourings about his bravery was pathetic.

Ah that one. OK. Wonder what was deemed the most brave - the coming out or the being married for 27 years?

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting from Hong Kong on coronavirus:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/listen-facts-rumours-colin-cohen/?trackingId=PFH9y8pCPg/w8TXGmdjNWQ==

This is probably a bit too bullish, but talk of thre place closing down and everyone being in a blind panic is somewhat overdone. Our office there is still open, though peop ehave the option to work from home. Some do and some don't. Life is quieter, it seems, but is going on. Maybe that is a mistake, though.

Interesting quote in the medical link in that piece:

"So far this epidemic has infected 71,309 people and caused 1,775 deaths. In comparison so far in the USA this winter influenza has infected 22-31 million people and resulted in between 12,000 and 30,000 deaths."

A useful sense of perspective.

Well the perspective is the difference between a mortality rate of 2% and 0.1%

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not sure what MOTD USP is these days. Highlights are available for free hours before (and full game if you subscribe to Sky) , the analysis provided isn't particularly insightful i.e. it isn't TIFO football, StatsBomb or even Gary Neville.

Long gone are the days when it was THE only place you could see footage of a match.

The USP is this -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPiZc2pkrb8

da da da der da da da da da da der da da da da - da da da ....... etc

da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da DA

There's a large element of sentimentality to theme tunes, especially to ones we associate with our childhood.

When I was at uni (2000-2003) I used to go every Thursday to a nightclub with an 80s theme. It would at one point play the theme tune to the The A-Team and Jim'll Fix It* and that always got an excited reaction more than any song.

Where I used to work there was a Sandwich van that went around at lunchtimes that like an ice-cream truck would play a song when it arrived. It was the song that Channel 4 used to use for their Cricket coverage.

Long after we've forgotten lyrics to a song from our childhood we can probably all remember our favourite theme tunes from when we were young. If I hear the theme tune to He-Man, or Captain Planet, or Teenage Mutant Hero Turtles, or Cheers or other stuff from then it will still now make me smile. And so too will hearing the themetune to MOTD or Grandstand or other stuff we grew up with.

Doesn't mean we need to keep broadcasting or watching Grandstand or MOTD etc anymore now. As has been recognised for one of them.

* You wouldn't do that nowadays!

YBarddCwsc said:

Past its sell-by date, glue just goes off and becomes viscous.

(I think the grammar Stasi will be calling at your home shortly for ignorami. Flee for you life while you can).

OK, good point. The "ties" (that bind) then. Also a Springsteen song, which is always nice to work in.

Ignorami?

No, I'm solid on this. It's a deliberate bespoke and special word that I've invented. It gets over the idea of a lumpen mass of ignoramuses. The Ignorami.

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

BigRich said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, and then there's blocking an ambulance.

https://twitter.com/MattBirdLabour/status/1229054763775483907

Maybe someone should tell the rozzers one of the anarchists tweeted a transphobic poem.

They are not 'anarchists'

Extinction rebellion are by inclination Authoritarian,

How to make friends and influence people, blocking emergency services from getting to people in need. Muppets.

Whatever happened to that water cannon that Boris Johnson bought when he was mayor of London?

Water Cannon - now there's Authoritarian!

It’s less authoritarian than having the army use the muppets for target practice!

I’m usually a libertarian kind of guy, but draw the line when people block the road for ambulances.

eadric said:

DavidL said:

eadric said:

DavidL said:

eadric said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting from Hong Kong on coronavirus:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/listen-facts-rumours-colin-cohen/?trackingId=PFH9y8pCPg/w8TXGmdjNWQ==

This is probably a bit too bullish, but talk of thre place closing down and everyone being in a blind panic is somewhat overdone. Our office there is still open, though peop ehave the option to work from home. Some do and some don't. Life is quieter, it seems, but is going on. Maybe that is a mistake, though.

Interesting quote in the medical link in that piece:

"So far this epidemic has infected 71,309 people and caused 1,775 deaths. In comparison so far in the USA this winter influenza has infected 22-31 million people and resulted in between 12,000 and 30,000 deaths."

A useful sense of perspective.

Flu is not going to infect 40-70% of the world, tho.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/harvard-professor-sounds-alarm-on-likely-coronavirus-pandemic-40-to-70-of-world-could-be-infected-this-year/

Harvard Professor or Hong Kong banker? Take yer pick.

The quotation comes from a medical doctor in HK that the banker links to. The professor is using a very simple model and arithmetic for which we don't have any useful inputs. He may be right of course but we just don't know.

Sure. The Hong Kong piece does read like a bit of hopeful whistling in the dark, but I can't blame Hong Kongers for that.

I guess the scary thing about CoronaV is how little we know, and how the predictions vary so wildly, so you get a Harvard Professor actively EXPECTING a huge global pandemic, and then you've got Trump saying the virus will be "killed by summer heat" (and he could be right!)

As you've noted before, the place to watch is Japan, over the next few weeks. If they can't contain it then I see no reason why it won't go everywhere (with a fatality rate we cannot yet determine).

They are certainly taking it seriously, cancelling imperial events and so on. The Olympics must be in peril, if it continues.

They cancelled the Tokyo marathon today. If this continues for another couple of months the Olympics are gone.

Yes. So sad. But just abut the worst thing you could do, in the middle of an epidemic, is hold The Olympic Games, inviting thousands of athletes and millions of tourists from all over the world, so they can catch the bug and take it home.

The organisers must be living in dread. Massive blow to the Japanese economy, too. Dangerous times....

Which is already in a fairly deep recession.

@FrancisUrquhart I wonder, and I’m being lazy by not Googling, but was America’s existing infrastructure built with public or private money?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kinabalu said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

I’ve seen a lot of students decide based on the quality of the night life they were expecting.

I chose on location - central London.

Incredible, looking back, barely 18 and transported from Yorkshire mining town to South Kensington, own room, no fees, grant enough to live on and get pissed every single day. Even the odd meal too.

#thosewerethedays

Student self-catering = spag bol
Sophisticated student cooking = spag bol and a bottle of wine
Michelin-starred student cooking = call the spag bol lasagne

Student wine drinking: We would choose the bottle with the best price to alcohol content ratio. Usually German. Sometimes consumed directly from the bottle.

Gallowgate said:

@FrancisUrquhart I wonder, and I’m being lazy by not Googling, but was America’s existing infrastructure built with public or private money?

A mixture. Depends a bit on when and where it was built.

Latest South Carolina and Nevada polls https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228418357059301376?s=20

https://twitter.com/natemcdermott/status/1228363905451405314?s=20

kinabalu said:

Cookie said:

In recent years, ITV's coverage of sport has got increasingly competent while the BBC is getting increasingly like how ITV used to be. And Sky of course continues to be competent and well-informed, if a little boringly quirk-free. But the one thing BBC sport continues to have over its rivals is that its theme tunes are miles and miles and miles and miles better.

Oh yes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Im_FnXiCHg

The Beeb is part of the glue which binds us, young and old, black and white, gay and straight, ignorami and cognescenti, together.

We lose it at our peril.

But it doesn't. The old watched MOTD and Grandstand etc and they liked it, they remember it fondly.

Time has already moved on. This tune still makes me smile but the PJ Masks tune means more to my daughters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLHMxFGqhIs

The young don't watch the BBC that much. So how can it bind us, if we don't watch it? The binds have been broken already. You wishing and trying to force the Beeb on the young won't change us or magically make us abandon better service providers for antiquated shit ones.

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

On the subject of universities more generally - I have noticed no difference in the quality of the teaching between my undergraduate redbrick and my current ex-poly. If anything, in my experience, the ex-poly is better.

That doesn’t surprise me. In ex polys, staff are hired because they can teach and that is the main focus of their role. If they don’t get it right, they’re out.

In a Russell Group, they are hired to research and teaching is a nuisance activity they sometimes do to show off how brilliant they are. If they can’t farm it out to PhD students on £10 an hour, that is.

If you have got into a Russell Group university you should really be able to research and teach yourself, you are paying for seminars and lectures from experts in their field not to be spoon fed

Aren't Netflix bringing back He-man? Not sure how well that will go down with the woke brigade.