politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie back as favourite for the Dem nomination
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Right now it could be a "Vote anyone and still get Trump" situation.Mexicanpete said:
Not according to my 100% anecdotal sources.HYUFD said:
He is a vanity candidate, Democratic voters will vote for Sanders over Bloomberg, in my view Bloomberg only gets to the general election if he goes Independent.viewcode said:
He's annoying me. I dismissed him as a vanity candidate with a deep purse. I am now feeling very stupid. Bad Bloomberg.WhisperingOracle said:
Democrats are not going to vote for a Bloomberg -Hillary ticket, because Hillary 2016 'was not elitist enough' they now need to add an ex Republican billionaire to a Hillary ticket is not a message to convince Democratic voters
Vote Sanders get Trump.1 -
Or we could all just stop caring. I'm doing my bit.MJW said:
Likely personal life, but in a way celebrity related. I wouldn't blame the media for reporting negative things about her, but media types probably do need to have a huge think about the support structures there for celebs whose lives go wrong in whatever way as the fallout from losing your livelihood and reputation in public is obviously brutal and compounded by the fact there's no hiding from it with social media nowadays.tlg86 said:
Personal life, probably. The Guardian now have it as their main story, I guess because they can see an anti-popular press angle.Pulpstar said:I've never watched Love Island but obviously this is an absolute tragedy. Is her death related to the show or more to do with her personal life.
Horrendous whatever the reason anyway.0 -
Also on the Democratic nomination battle. It's worth remembering that demographically the Democratic selectorate doesn't look very much like Iowa or New Hampshire. But nor does it look like South Carolina.
In fact, if you want to see what the Democratic selectorate looks like across the whole country, you'd be best of looking at Nevada. It overindexes slightly on Hispanic voters, but otherwise looks remarkably like the country as a whole.
It is therefore a perfect opportunity to see how the candidates stack up before we get to Super Tuesday.0 -
I rather expect to see Labour back at 40% later in the year.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Labour surge!!HYUFD said:0 -
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes2 -
It is worth remembering, though, that if the gap becomes too great then the system will become unsustainable.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Imagine a situation where Donald Trump Jr got 40% of the vote, while Chelsea Clinton got 60%. But because of the electoral college it was DTJr that became President.
I think then that either the country would need to change the electoral college system, or there would be succession. The system has to be seen as fair if it is to continue.0 -
I accept that there must be limits. But I don't think 2016 was beyond them. And it is important that all parts of the country think that they play a part. If California became as dominant as its population might allow that would not be healthy either.rcs1000 said:
It is worth remembering, though, that if the gap becomes too great then the system will become unsustainable.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Imagine a situation where Donald Trump Jr got 40% of the vote, while Chelsea Clinton got 60%. But because of the electoral college it was DTJr that became President.
I think then that either the country would need to change the electoral college system, or there would be succession. The system has to be seen as fair if it is to continue.0 -
Biden's biggest support comes from African Americans, their vote was negligible in Iowa and New Hampshire, in South Carolina they make up most votersrcs1000 said:
Of course, a week before the Primary in New Hampshire, Biden was doing quite well in the polls there:HYUFD said:Biden still ahead in South Carolina though
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228418357059301376?s=20
https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/Democratic Voter Survey Jan-Feb 2020.pdf
https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/ToplinesFeb2020-REVISED.pdf
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/new-hampshire/2020/2-3-2020_final_nh_tracking_marginals.pdf
And in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden got meaningfully lower vote shares than the polls indicated.
I think this comes down to two factors:
Firstly, Biden has a less good machine for getting voters out. Ground game matters in low turnout elections.
Secondly, Biden supporters are less politically engaged. There's almost a perfect correlation between "not much answers" to "how much attention are you paying to the Democratic primary?" and Biden support.
That's a big problem for Biden. It suggests that the more people focus on who to vote for in the Primaries, the less likely they are to vote for Biden.0 -
That is the view of most Democratic voters, what swing voters state may be different but Democrats decide the primariesMexicanpete said:
Not according to my 100% anecdotal sources.HYUFD said:
He is a vanity candidate, Democratic voters will vote for Sanders over Bloomberg, in my view Bloomberg only gets to the general election if he goes Independent.viewcode said:
He's annoying me. I dismissed him as a vanity candidate with a deep purse. I am now feeling very stupid. Bad Bloomberg.WhisperingOracle said:
Democrats are not going to vote for a Bloomberg -Hillary ticket, because Hillary 2016 'was not elitist enough' they now need to add an ex Republican billionaire to a Hillary ticket is not a message to convince Democratic voters
Vote Sanders get Trump.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228387915807498241?s=200 -
That argument will be forgotten when Sanders gets more delegates to the convention than any other candidate but doesn't get the nomination.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes0 -
Back to 2019 levelsSunil_Prasannan said:
Labour surge!!HYUFD said:0 -
Well said. Brain degeneration at that age is real - and its not just about his state now but for five years to come (the elected POTUS will serve until Jan 2025).eadric said:
Because you really CAN be too young or old for a job like president; you cannot be too black, white, male or female.logical_song said:
Explain to me why ageism is better than racism and sexism.Barnesian said:
Bloomberg is so OLD! Older than Biden. He was born one month after Pearl Harbour. He and Sanders are both 78. For some reason his age is not commented on.MikeSmithson said:
Perhaps you can explain. I'm on at 9.Pulpstar said:#FUCKOFFBLOOMBERG
Plus Presidents are under a lot of pressure. They age - and age fast - while in office. Ageing from 78 in this modern era is a lot.0 -
The founding fathers agreed with you. You have to be 35 or over to be President. In practice, the youngest was 42.eadric said:
Meh. I think it's pretty clear cut. No one under 21 is really capable of being POTUS, and no one over 80 either.WhisperingOracle said:
However, you can also be accused of being mentally or physically unfit, or too inexperienced or unwise, both on grounds of age, when you aren't.eadric said:
Because you really CAN be too young or old for a job like president; you cannot be too black, white, male or female.logical_song said:
Explain to me why ageism is better than racism and sexism.Barnesian said:
Bloomberg is so OLD! Older than Biden. He was born one month after Pearl Harbour. He and Sanders are both 78. For some reason his age is not commented on.MikeSmithson said:
Perhaps you can explain. I'm on at 9.Pulpstar said:#FUCKOFFBLOOMBERG
So you're half right, putting presidential or prime ministerial ageism in a unique category between prejudice and common sense, at times including both.
At the same time, most senior jobs aren't open to the very young or very old in the first place, meaning that age discrimination in the large zone in between is likely to be closer to prejudice.
Indeed, and contentiously, I'd go further and make it a job open to people age 25-70 only (when first elected).
America's gerontacracy is a deep shame, and a discredit to the world's most powerful democracy. It is also bad news for the rest of us, who witness Trump's cognitive decline0 -
It is worth remembering that when Candidate A quits the race and endorses Candidate B, then typically A's delegates become B's.No_Offence_Alan said:
That argument will be forgotten when Sanders gets more delegates to the convention than any other candidate but doesn't get the nomination.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
So, when John Edwards quit the race in 2008 and endorsed Obama, his 14 delegates became Obama's.
It is therefore entirely possible - especially given how fragmented this race is - that Buttigieg and/or Biden endorses Klobuchar (for example) and pushes their delegate total past Sanders.0 -
That is quite true. However vote Bernie to guarantee Trump is also true.speedy2 said:
Right now it could be a "Vote anyone and still get Trump" situation.Mexicanpete said:
Not according to my 100% anecdotal sources.HYUFD said:
He is a vanity candidate, Democratic voters will vote for Sanders over Bloomberg, in my view Bloomberg only gets to the general election if he goes Independent.viewcode said:
He's annoying me. I dismissed him as a vanity candidate with a deep purse. I am now feeling very stupid. Bad Bloomberg.WhisperingOracle said:
Democrats are not going to vote for a Bloomberg -Hillary ticket, because Hillary 2016 'was not elitist enough' they now need to add an ex Republican billionaire to a Hillary ticket is not a message to convince Democratic voters
Vote Sanders get Trump.0 -
Why couldn't he have done this last time? I had money on him then!viewcode said:
He's annoying me. I dismissed him as a vanity candidate with a deep purse. I am now feeling very stupid. Bad Bloomberg.WhisperingOracle said:0 -
With white Democrats Sanders leads Biden nationally now 24% to 19%, with black Democrats Biden leads Sanders 35% to 27% stillHYUFD said:
Biden's biggest support comes from African Americans, their vote was negligible in Iowa and New Hampshire, in South Carolina they make up most votersrcs1000 said:
Of course, a week before the Primary in New Hampshire, Biden was doing quite well in the polls there:HYUFD said:Biden still ahead in South Carolina though
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228418357059301376?s=20
https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/Democratic Voter Survey Jan-Feb 2020.pdf
https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/ToplinesFeb2020-REVISED.pdf
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/new-hampshire/2020/2-3-2020_final_nh_tracking_marginals.pdf
And in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden got meaningfully lower vote shares than the polls indicated.
I think this comes down to two factors:
Firstly, Biden has a less good machine for getting voters out. Ground game matters in low turnout elections.
Secondly, Biden supporters are less politically engaged. There's almost a perfect correlation between "not much answers" to "how much attention are you paying to the Democratic primary?" and Biden support.
That's a big problem for Biden. It suggests that the more people focus on who to vote for in the Primaries, the less likely they are to vote for Biden.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/0 -
Buttigieg picks up first major endorsement in South Carolina: https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2020/02/13/buttigieg-lands-endorsement-black-sc-lawmaker-ja-moore-democratic-presidential-candidate/4750745002/0
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So people's votes don't matter in a democracy?DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Search your feelings, DavidL - you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!0 -
He needs it, Buttigieg is currently on just 4% of the black vote nationwide compared to 14% of the white votercs1000 said:Buttigieg picks up first major endorsement in South Carolina: https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2020/02/13/buttigieg-lands-endorsement-black-sc-lawmaker-ja-moore-democratic-presidential-candidate/4750745002/
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/0 -
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:0 -
The point I'm making is that lots of people stopped supporting Biden in the last week of both Iowa and New Hampshire.HYUFD said:
Biden's biggest support comes from African Americans, their vote was negligible in Iowa and New Hampshire, in South Carolina they make up most votersrcs1000 said:
Of course, a week before the Primary in New Hampshire, Biden was doing quite well in the polls there:HYUFD said:Biden still ahead in South Carolina though
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228418357059301376?s=20
https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/Democratic Voter Survey Jan-Feb 2020.pdf
https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/ToplinesFeb2020-REVISED.pdf
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/new-hampshire/2020/2-3-2020_final_nh_tracking_marginals.pdf
And in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden got meaningfully lower vote shares than the polls indicated.
I think this comes down to two factors:
Firstly, Biden has a less good machine for getting voters out. Ground game matters in low turnout elections.
Secondly, Biden supporters are less politically engaged. There's almost a perfect correlation between "not much answers" to "how much attention are you paying to the Democratic primary?" and Biden support.
That's a big problem for Biden. It suggests that the more people focus on who to vote for in the Primaries, the less likely they are to vote for Biden.
Now, it's entirely possible that this was a one-off. Or, perhaps rather, a two-off.
But it's also entirely possible that African Americans in South Carolina will notice that having a candidate who's not, to put it kindly, as sharp as he was in 2008 is not a good idea.0 -
Yes, but you still need to win under the crappy system before you can change it, and its only recently that more have even talked about doing so. People don't need to be fans of the electoral college system to note that winning the popular vote didn't matter, that's just fact, and a failure to win in the way that was necessary still a failure.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
0 -
Of course it wasn't that along ago that Buttigieg didn't even get 4% among white Democrats.HYUFD said:
He needs it, Buttigieg is currently on just 4% of the black vote nationwide compared to 14% of the white votercs1000 said:Buttigieg picks up first major endorsement in South Carolina: https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2020/02/13/buttigieg-lands-endorsement-black-sc-lawmaker-ja-moore-democratic-presidential-candidate/4750745002/
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/0 -
Well counting into the middle teens as well, but yes. Why wouldn't I? It doesn't prevent reading a wide variety of other books - I'm on a bit of book drive at the moment and have read loads already this year.eadric said:
You've read a book..... TEN TIMES?kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's 40.rottenborough said:
As an adult??0 -
Must confess to skipping most of Frodo's journey post the break up of the Fellowship these days. Gets as tedious as Arya's time with the Faceless Men. But LOTR is great to dip into.kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:0 -
I wonder how this chap is getting along as a PM.Philip_Thompson said:
Well said. Brain degeneration at that age is real - and its not just about his state now but for five years to come (the elected POTUS will serve until Jan 2025).eadric said:
Because you really CAN be too young or old for a job like president; you cannot be too black, white, male or female.logical_song said:
Explain to me why ageism is better than racism and sexism.Barnesian said:
Bloomberg is so OLD! Older than Biden. He was born one month after Pearl Harbour. He and Sanders are both 78. For some reason his age is not commented on.MikeSmithson said:
Perhaps you can explain. I'm on at 9.Pulpstar said:#FUCKOFFBLOOMBERG
Plus Presidents are under a lot of pressure. They age - and age fast - while in office. Ageing from 78 in this modern era is a lot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahathir_Mohamad
94 and counting. Of course, it would be most unusual for someone to be physically and mentally capable of very demanding jobs.0 -
The thing about LOTR is that it's the greatest story ever told (one of), but it isn't much else. The writing is flat and uninteresting, it cries out for some really savage editing - all the stuff before the Council of Elrond, bar 30 pages to establish what the Shire and hobbits are like, needs to go, especially that intolerable twat Tom Bombadil. You are allowed to read it once for the story, and once more 10 years later to remind yourself how good the story is, and that is it.kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:1 -
Search your feelings, kle4 - you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!kle4 said:
Yes, but you still need to win under the crappy system before you can change it, and its only recently that more have even talked about doing so. People don't need to be fans of the electoral college system to note that winning the popular vote didn't matter, that's just fact, and a failure to win in the way that was necessary still a failure.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
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It wouldn't be my choice of a book to reread so many times for reasons such as that - and bigger, denser fare generally would be hard to manage.DavidL said:
Must confess to skipping most of Frodo's journey post the break up of the Fellowship these days. Gets as tedious as Arya's time with the Faceless Men. But LOTR is great to dip into.kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:
But something likeGood Omens? No problem.
But there is something great in discovering a new story for the first time.0 -
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?0 -
There are a couple of Christopher Brookmyre novels I must have read half a dozen times each.eadric said:
You've read a book..... TEN TIMES?kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's 40.rottenborough said:
As an adult??0 -
I already said it was! What does that have to do with anything?!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Search your feelings, kle4 - you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!kle4 said:
Yes, but you still need to win under the crappy system before you can change it, and its only recently that more have even talked about doing so. People don't need to be fans of the electoral college system to note that winning the popular vote didn't matter, that's just fact, and a failure to win in the way that was necessary still a failure.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
0 -
This poll has the look of either voodoo or obsolescence about it.HYUFD said:
That is the view of most Democratic voters, what swing voters state may be different but Democrats decide the primariesMexicanpete said:
Not according to my 100% anecdotal sources.HYUFD said:
He is a vanity candidate, Democratic voters will vote for Sanders over Bloomberg, in my view Bloomberg only gets to the general election if he goes Independent.viewcode said:
He's annoying me. I dismissed him as a vanity candidate with a deep purse. I am now feeling very stupid. Bad Bloomberg.WhisperingOracle said:
Democrats are not going to vote for a Bloomberg -Hillary ticket, because Hillary 2016 'was not elitist enough' they now need to add an ex Republican billionaire to a Hillary ticket is not a message to convince Democratic voters
Vote Sanders get Trump.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228387915807498241?s=200 -
And I'm sure I've read Hitchhiker's at least as muchrcs1000 said:
There are a couple of Christopher Brookmyre novels I must have read half a dozen times each.eadric said:
You've read a book..... TEN TIMES?kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's 40.rottenborough said:
As an adult??0 -
Hmm. Disraeli served into his mid/late seventies, if I remember correctly, Gladstone into his early 80's, and Plato was still supposed to have been teaching at the Academy into his early 80s, IIRC also.Philip_Thompson said:
Well said. Brain degeneration at that age is real - and its not just about his state now but for five years to come (the elected POTUS will serve until Jan 2025).eadric said:
Because you really CAN be too young or old for a job like president; you cannot be too black, white, male or female.logical_song said:
Explain to me why ageism is better than racism and sexism.Barnesian said:
Bloomberg is so OLD! Older than Biden. He was born one month after Pearl Harbour. He and Sanders are both 78. For some reason his age is not commented on.MikeSmithson said:
Perhaps you can explain. I'm on at 9.Pulpstar said:#FUCKOFFBLOOMBERG
Plus Presidents are under a lot of pressure. They age - and age fast - while in office. Ageing from 78 in this modern era is a lot.
There is an argument that the intense intellectual stimulation of these jobs can also keep people going longer.0 -
Maybe, maybe not but at the moment he remains the candidate African Americans see as best representing their interests due to his Obama connection as his VP in large part.rcs1000 said:
The point I'm making is that lots of people stopped supporting Biden in the last week of both Iowa and New Hampshire.HYUFD said:
Biden's biggest support comes from African Americans, their vote was negligible in Iowa and New Hampshire, in South Carolina they make up most votersrcs1000 said:
Of course, a week before the Primary in New Hampshire, Biden was doing quite well in the polls there:HYUFD said:Biden still ahead in South Carolina though
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228418357059301376?s=20
https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/Democratic Voter Survey Jan-Feb 2020.pdf
https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/ToplinesFeb2020-REVISED.pdf
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/new-hampshire/2020/2-3-2020_final_nh_tracking_marginals.pdf
And in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden got meaningfully lower vote shares than the polls indicated.
I think this comes down to two factors:
Firstly, Biden has a less good machine for getting voters out. Ground game matters in low turnout elections.
Secondly, Biden supporters are less politically engaged. There's almost a perfect correlation between "not much answers" to "how much attention are you paying to the Democratic primary?" and Biden support.
That's a big problem for Biden. It suggests that the more people focus on who to vote for in the Primaries, the less likely they are to vote for Biden.
Now, it's entirely possible that this was a one-off. Or, perhaps rather, a two-off.
But it's also entirely possible that African Americans in South Carolina will notice that having a candidate who's not, to put it kindly, as sharp as he was in 2008 is not a good idea.
While Sanders now leads with white and Hispanic Democrats, Biden thus still leads with African American Democrats0 -
I'm not sure I would replace it with a direct vote with no geographical restrictions. And the Electoral College numbers are updated to reflect the relative size of the States pretty regularly which should keep the system roughly in balance. I am sure that the republican vote is artificially reduced in both California and NY, just as votes often are here in safe constituencies. The Democrats need a candidate that can win the rust bucket states of middle America. That is probably a good thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
So people's votes don't matter in a democracy?DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Search your feelings, DavidL - you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!0 -
It was taken 2 days agoMexicanpete said:
This poll has the look of either voodoo or obsolescence about it.HYUFD said:
That is the view of most Democratic voters, what swing voters state may be different but Democrats decide the primariesMexicanpete said:
Not according to my 100% anecdotal sources.HYUFD said:
He is a vanity candidate, Democratic voters will vote for Sanders over Bloomberg, in my view Bloomberg only gets to the general election if he goes Independent.viewcode said:
He's annoying me. I dismissed him as a vanity candidate with a deep purse. I am now feeling very stupid. Bad Bloomberg.WhisperingOracle said:
Democrats are not going to vote for a Bloomberg -Hillary ticket, because Hillary 2016 'was not elitist enough' they now need to add an ex Republican billionaire to a Hillary ticket is not a message to convince Democratic voters
Vote Sanders get Trump.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228387915807498241?s=200 -
I do find non-fiction to be a bit of a chore to reread most of the time, so I prefer to be gifted those rather than buy them myself as they'll be read once - I like to get value out of my books, and if I'm only going to read it once or twice that's not much value.0
-
LotR is quite light compared to much modern fantasy that's come since.kle4 said:
It wouldn't be my choice of a book to reread so many times for reasons such as that - and bigger, denser fare generally would be hard to manage.DavidL said:
Must confess to skipping most of Frodo's journey post the break up of the Fellowship these days. Gets as tedious as Arya's time with the Faceless Men. But LOTR is great to dip into.kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:
But something likeGood Omens? No problem.
But there is something great in discovering a new story for the first time.
I've probably read many Wheel of Time Books (especially Eye of the World to Lord of Chaos) about 15 times. I got introduced to it when Lord of Chaos (book 6) was released and after reading the series and realising it was incomplete I re-read the series start to finish a few times and before the release of each subsequent release (until book 14 was released).1 -
As well as LOTR I am pretty close to that with Thief of Time and I still laugh out loud (much to my family's amusement).rcs1000 said:
And I'm sure I've read Hitchhiker's at least as muchrcs1000 said:
There are a couple of Christopher Brookmyre novels I must have read half a dozen times each.eadric said:
You've read a book..... TEN TIMES?kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's 40.rottenborough said:
As an adult??0 -
Your analogy is a poor one.Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Sunil is right. In 2000 and 2016 the most popular candidate across the country lost because the system is flawed. Cameron thought the 2005 GE was unrepresentative of the votes cast so decided to address the anomaly. Perfectly sensible.1 -
I've read the Ice Twins TEN TIMES.DavidL said:
As well as LOTR I am pretty close to that with Thief of Time and I still laugh out loud (much to my family's amusement).rcs1000 said:
And I'm sure I've read Hitchhiker's at least as muchrcs1000 said:
There are a couple of Christopher Brookmyre novels I must have read half a dozen times each.eadric said:
You've read a book..... TEN TIMES?kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's 40.rottenborough said:
As an adult??
0 -
What's poor about it?Mexicanpete said:
Your analogy is a poor one.Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Sunil is right. In 2000 and 2016 the most popular candidate across the country lost because the system is flawed. Cameron thought the 2005 GE was unrepresentative of the votes cast so decided to address the anomaly. Perfectly sensible.
In 2000 and 2016 the most popular candidate across the country lost because the system worked as designed by its founders. Because to win you don't need to be the most popular across the country, you need to be the most popular in enough states to win. Piling up votes in large states but ignoring small states is something the founders deliberately designed the system to avoid.1 -
I just got lost with them. I have pretty much the full set and trying again is on my to do list.Philip_Thompson said:
LotR is quite light compared to much modern fantasy that's come since.kle4 said:
It wouldn't be my choice of a book to reread so many times for reasons such as that - and bigger, denser fare generally would be hard to manage.DavidL said:
Must confess to skipping most of Frodo's journey post the break up of the Fellowship these days. Gets as tedious as Arya's time with the Faceless Men. But LOTR is great to dip into.kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:
But something likeGood Omens? No problem.
But there is something great in discovering a new story for the first time.
I've probably read many Wheel of Time Books (especially Eye of the World to Lord of Chaos) about 15 times. I got introduced to it when Lord of Chaos (book 6) was released and after reading the series and realising it was incomplete I re-read the series start to finish a few times and before the release of each subsequent release (until book 14 was released).0 -
I understand that it is a recent poll, the data however seems plain wrong. Too January 2020.HYUFD said:
It was taken 2 days agoMexicanpete said:
This poll has the look of either voodoo or obsolescence about it.HYUFD said:
That is the view of most Democratic voters, what swing voters state may be different but Democrats decide the primariesMexicanpete said:
Not according to my 100% anecdotal sources.HYUFD said:
He is a vanity candidate, Democratic voters will vote for Sanders over Bloomberg, in my view Bloomberg only gets to the general election if he goes Independent.viewcode said:
He's annoying me. I dismissed him as a vanity candidate with a deep purse. I am now feeling very stupid. Bad Bloomberg.WhisperingOracle said:
Democrats are not going to vote for a Bloomberg -Hillary ticket, because Hillary 2016 'was not elitist enough' they now need to add an ex Republican billionaire to a Hillary ticket is not a message to convince Democratic voters
Vote Sanders get Trump.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228387915807498241?s=200 -
You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone more Liberal than me but there’s more chance of ET landing on your lawn than the rust belt states voting for a gay man .
The media seem to be avoiding the elephant in the room.
And to be blunt aswell as that the black and Latino populations in the USA are often quite homophobic and are a key part of the Democratic Vote in other states.
It was hilarious to see Trump sounding quite positive about Buttigieg because clearly he knows he’s guaranteed to remain President if he became the nominee.
0 -
I would recommend it. It is a vast world with lots of plots that is created so I can understand getting lost with it, but if you can get into it then I think it is great.DavidL said:
I just got lost with them. I have pretty much the full set and trying again is on my to do list.Philip_Thompson said:
LotR is quite light compared to much modern fantasy that's come since.kle4 said:
It wouldn't be my choice of a book to reread so many times for reasons such as that - and bigger, denser fare generally would be hard to manage.DavidL said:
Must confess to skipping most of Frodo's journey post the break up of the Fellowship these days. Gets as tedious as Arya's time with the Faceless Men. But LOTR is great to dip into.kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:
But something likeGood Omens? No problem.
But there is something great in discovering a new story for the first time.
I've probably read many Wheel of Time Books (especially Eye of the World to Lord of Chaos) about 15 times. I got introduced to it when Lord of Chaos (book 6) was released and after reading the series and realising it was incomplete I re-read the series start to finish a few times and before the release of each subsequent release (until book 14 was released).0 -
I don't see why? Sanders won the popular vote in both Iowa and New HampshireMexicanpete said:
I understand that it is a recent poll, the data however seems plain wrong. Too January 2020.HYUFD said:
It was taken 2 days agoMexicanpete said:
This poll has the look of either voodoo or obsolescence about it.HYUFD said:
That is the view of most Democratic voters, what swing voters state may be different but Democrats decide the primariesMexicanpete said:
Not according to my 100% anecdotal sources.HYUFD said:
He is a vanity candidate, Democratic voters will vote for Sanders over Bloomberg, in my view Bloomberg only gets to the general election if he goes Independent.viewcode said:
He's annoying me. I dismissed him as a vanity candidate with a deep purse. I am now feeling very stupid. Bad Bloomberg.WhisperingOracle said:
Democrats are not going to vote for a Bloomberg -Hillary ticket, because Hillary 2016 'was not elitist enough' they now need to add an ex Republican billionaire to a Hillary ticket is not a message to convince Democratic voters
Vote Sanders get Trump.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228387915807498241?s=200 -
They said that about they wouldn't vote for a black man. They did.nico67 said:You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone more Liberal than me but there’s more chance of ET landing on your lawn than the rust belt states voting for a gay man .
The media seem to be avoiding the elephant in the room.
And to be blunt aswell as that the black and Latino populations in the USA are often quite homophobic and are a key part of the Democratic Vote in other states.
It was hilarious to see Trump sounding quite positive about Buttigieg because clearly he knows he’s guaranteed to remain President if he became the nominee.1 -
For a United fan that is a pretty miserable choice!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?0 -
So people's votes don't matter in a, er, democracy?Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Search your feelings, Philip_Thompson - you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!0 -
Totally different . Obama was married and straight . There’s zip chance of Buttigieg winning if he’s the Democrat nominee.Philip_Thompson said:
They said that about they wouldn't vote for a black man. They did.nico67 said:You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone more Liberal than me but there’s more chance of ET landing on your lawn than the rust belt states voting for a gay man .
The media seem to be avoiding the elephant in the room.
And to be blunt aswell as that the black and Latino populations in the USA are often quite homophobic and are a key part of the Democratic Vote in other states.
It was hilarious to see Trump sounding quite positive about Buttigieg because clearly he knows he’s guaranteed to remain President if he became the nominee.
Do you seriously think the rust belt states will vote for a gay man . And that’s also going to be an issue in some states the Dems currently hold .0 -
But American voters are electing a single President - the States aren't electing 50 different Presidents.DavidL said:
I'm not sure I would replace it with a direct vote with no geographical restrictions. And the Electoral College numbers are updated to reflect the relative size of the States pretty regularly which should keep the system roughly in balance. I am sure that the republican vote is artificially reduced in both California and NY, just as votes often are here in safe constituencies. The Democrats need a candidate that can win the rust bucket states of middle America. That is probably a good thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
So people's votes don't matter in a democracy?DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Search your feelings, DavidL - you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!0 -
Nah!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Votes = points
Electors = goals.0 -
Is there much for a Manchester United fan to be happy about this season?DavidL said:
For a United fan that is a pretty miserable choice!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Worth noting that United are 4 points behind Sheffield United (though with a game in hand) despite scoring 8 goals more than Sheffield.0 -
I am sure that @eadric will approve of that!rottenborough said:
I've read the Ice Twins TEN TIMES.DavidL said:
As well as LOTR I am pretty close to that with Thief of Time and I still laugh out loud (much to my family's amusement).rcs1000 said:
And I'm sure I've read Hitchhiker's at least as muchrcs1000 said:
There are a couple of Christopher Brookmyre novels I must have read half a dozen times each.eadric said:
You've read a book..... TEN TIMES?kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's 40.rottenborough said:
As an adult??0 -
Lord of Chaos I think is my favourite - that ending was powerful as hell. Bit of a drag around books 9-11, but it picks up again. Possibly my favourite high fantasy series.Philip_Thompson said:
I would recommend it. It is a vast world with lots of plots that is created so I can understand getting lost with it, but if you can get into it then I think it is great.DavidL said:
I just got lost with them. I have pretty much the full set and trying again is on my to do list.Philip_Thompson said:
LotR is quite light compared to much modern fantasy that's come since.kle4 said:
It wouldn't be my choice of a book to reread so many times for reasons such as that - and bigger, denser fare generally would be hard to manage.DavidL said:
Must confess to skipping most of Frodo's journey post the break up of the Fellowship these days. Gets as tedious as Arya's time with the Faceless Men. But LOTR is great to dip into.kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:
But something likeGood Omens? No problem.
But there is something great in discovering a new story for the first time.
I've probably read many Wheel of Time Books (especially Eye of the World to Lord of Chaos) about 15 times. I got introduced to it when Lord of Chaos (book 6) was released and after reading the series and realising it was incomplete I re-read the series start to finish a few times and before the release of each subsequent release (until book 14 was released).1 -
Evangelical Christians would have sworn blind they wouldn't vote for a serial adulterer who paid for his girlfriend to have an abortion. Yet they also did.Philip_Thompson said:
They said that about they wouldn't vote for a black man. They did.nico67 said:You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone more Liberal than me but there’s more chance of ET landing on your lawn than the rust belt states voting for a gay man .
The media seem to be avoiding the elephant in the room.
And to be blunt aswell as that the black and Latino populations in the USA are often quite homophobic and are a key part of the Democratic Vote in other states.
It was hilarious to see Trump sounding quite positive about Buttigieg because clearly he knows he’s guaranteed to remain President if he became the nominee.2 -
They're still above Burnley. Just.Philip_Thompson said:
Is there much for a Manchester United fan to be happy about this season?DavidL said:
For a United fan that is a pretty miserable choice!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Worth noting that United are 4 points behind Sheffield United (though with a game in hand) despite scoring 8 goals more than Sheffield.1 -
Nope you have it backwards.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nah!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Votes = points
Electors = goals.
Electors = points.
Votes = goals.
Having more possession, or even more goals across a season, doesn't win you the title. Having more points does - just like you need more electors.
The country is like a season, the states are like individual games.
Its not enough to just win a few games 8-0 then draw the rest, if your opponent is winning all their games 1-0 they will win the season even if you have more goals.0 -
What's even better is when you discover a new author, especially with an ongoing series. If they're early- or mid-career and have got many novels left in them, it's even better. Older ones can be problematic - fiftysomething Charles Stross is blocked due to family illnesses and might not be able to finish The Laundry Files satisfyingly, and I'm praying Max Hastings stays active, but he's 74 now.kle4 said:But there is something great in discovering a new story for the first time.
0 -
Nothing in it for him after the first time, unless it was borrowed from a library 10 times.DavidL said:
I am sure that @eadric will approve of that!rottenborough said:
I've read the Ice Twins TEN TIMES.DavidL said:
As well as LOTR I am pretty close to that with Thief of Time and I still laugh out loud (much to my family's amusement).rcs1000 said:
And I'm sure I've read Hitchhiker's at least as muchrcs1000 said:
There are a couple of Christopher Brookmyre novels I must have read half a dozen times each.eadric said:
You've read a book..... TEN TIMES?kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's 40.rottenborough said:
As an adult??0 -
Trump addressed the March for Life and has pursued several anti abortion policiesrcs1000 said:
Evangelical Christians would have sworn blind they wouldn't vote for a serial adulterer who paid for his girlfriend to have an abortion. Yet they also did.Philip_Thompson said:
They said that about they wouldn't vote for a black man. They did.nico67 said:You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone more Liberal than me but there’s more chance of ET landing on your lawn than the rust belt states voting for a gay man .
The media seem to be avoiding the elephant in the room.
And to be blunt aswell as that the black and Latino populations in the USA are often quite homophobic and are a key part of the Democratic Vote in other states.
It was hilarious to see Trump sounding quite positive about Buttigieg because clearly he knows he’s guaranteed to remain President if he became the nominee.0 -
No but the system requires parties that want to win (Democrats, this is called a clue) to choose a candidate that can appeal to different parts of the country not just maximise the liberal vote in California and NY. I think that's an essential part of holding the country together.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But American voters are electing a single President - the States aren't electing 50 different Presidents.DavidL said:
I'm not sure I would replace it with a direct vote with no geographical restrictions. And the Electoral College numbers are updated to reflect the relative size of the States pretty regularly which should keep the system roughly in balance. I am sure that the republican vote is artificially reduced in both California and NY, just as votes often are here in safe constituencies. The Democrats need a candidate that can win the rust bucket states of middle America. That is probably a good thing.Sunil_Prasannan said:
So people's votes don't matter in a democracy?DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Search your feelings, DavidL - you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!0 -
Some truth in that, only 51% of black Americans and 58% of Hispanic Americans support gay marriage compared to 62% of white Americansnico67 said:You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone more Liberal than me but there’s more chance of ET landing on your lawn than the rust belt states voting for a gay man .
The media seem to be avoiding the elephant in the room.
And to be blunt aswell as that the black and Latino populations in the USA are often quite homophobic and are a key part of the Democratic Vote in other states.
It was hilarious to see Trump sounding quite positive about Buttigieg because clearly he knows he’s guaranteed to remain President if he became the nominee.
https://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/changing-attitudes-on-gay-marriage/0 -
Absolutely, Lord of Chaos is great. I got into the series by a bit of an accident, one of my friends gave me Lord of Chaos for my birthday without realising it was the 6th book in a series. Had to go to find a library that stocked books 1 to 5 before I could read my present.kle4 said:
Lord of Chaos I think is my favourite - that ending was powerful as hell. Bit of a drag around books 9-11, but it picks up again. Possibly my favourite high fantasy series.Philip_Thompson said:
I would recommend it. It is a vast world with lots of plots that is created so I can understand getting lost with it, but if you can get into it then I think it is great.DavidL said:
I just got lost with them. I have pretty much the full set and trying again is on my to do list.Philip_Thompson said:
LotR is quite light compared to much modern fantasy that's come since.kle4 said:
It wouldn't be my choice of a book to reread so many times for reasons such as that - and bigger, denser fare generally would be hard to manage.DavidL said:
Must confess to skipping most of Frodo's journey post the break up of the Fellowship these days. Gets as tedious as Arya's time with the Faceless Men. But LOTR is great to dip into.kle4 said:
Is the 15 times thing meant to be surprising? I mean, I don't think there's any book that I have read quite that many times, but I have read some at least 10 times while only being 33. If it's his favourite book then I'd not be surprised if he read it once a year, in which case 15 might well be low given he's near 40.rottenborough said:
But something likeGood Omens? No problem.
But there is something great in discovering a new story for the first time.
I've probably read many Wheel of Time Books (especially Eye of the World to Lord of Chaos) about 15 times. I got introduced to it when Lord of Chaos (book 6) was released and after reading the series and realising it was incomplete I re-read the series start to finish a few times and before the release of each subsequent release (until book 14 was released).
10's ok but yeah 9 and 11 were a bit lost. Before and after that though the series makes up for it.0 -
Nah!Philip_Thompson said:
Nope you have it backwards.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nah!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Votes = points
Electors = goals.
Electors = points.
Votes = goals.
Having more possession, or even more goals across a season, doesn't win you the title. Having more points does - just like you need more electors.
The country is like a season, the states are like individual games.
Its not enough to just win a few games 8-0 then draw the rest, if your opponent is winning all their games 1-0 they will win the season even if you have more goals.
Votes = points
Electors = goals
Search your feelings, Philip_Thompson, you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!0 -
Could be worse - you could be a Hammers fanPhilip_Thompson said:
Is there much for a Manchester United fan to be happy about this season?DavidL said:
For a United fan that is a pretty miserable choice!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Worth noting that United are 4 points behind Sheffield United (though with a game in hand) despite scoring 8 goals more than Sheffield. 1 -
The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/12288065021960519691 -
You may wish it to be that way but its not. Electors literally are like points. And like points the electors are determined based on votes on their individual matches (states).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nah!Philip_Thompson said:
Nope you have it backwards.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nah!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Votes = points
Electors = goals.
Electors = points.
Votes = goals.
Having more possession, or even more goals across a season, doesn't win you the title. Having more points does - just like you need more electors.
The country is like a season, the states are like individual games.
Its not enough to just win a few games 8-0 then draw the rest, if your opponent is winning all their games 1-0 they will win the season even if you have more goals.
Votes = points
Electors = goals
Search your feelings, Philip_Thompson, you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!0 -
Cummings vs BBC?
Does he know that a great many Archers listeners and Antiques roadshow viewers etc etc are 60+ Tory voters.
Will no one in the Party stop Rasputin in a beanie hat?0 -
Rashford was a bright spot. Until he got injured. Inevitably.Philip_Thompson said:
Is there much for a Manchester United fan to be happy about this season?DavidL said:
For a United fan that is a pretty miserable choice!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Worth noting that United are 4 points behind Sheffield United (though with a game in hand) despite scoring 8 goals more than Sheffield.0 -
About time! Yes!rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
1 -
If people wish to subscribe to the BBC to get Antiques Roadshow let them voluntarily do so.rottenborough said:Cummings vs BBC?
Does he know that a great many Archers listeners and Antiques roadshow viewers etc etc are 60+ Tory voters.
Will no one in the Party stop Rasputin in a beanie hat?2 -
Crap.Philip_Thompson said:
About time! Yes!rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
And if you think the average Tory voter will thank you for destroying the BBC then you are wrong.
0 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/15/exclusive-millions-told-stay-home-coronavirus-continues-spread/
The UK medical establishment sounds pretty convinced we are in for an epidemic in the next couple of months.0 -
I couldn't give a shit if the BBC is destroyed or not. In my view it already is substandard shit.rottenborough said:
Crap.Philip_Thompson said:
About time! Yes!rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
And if you think the average Tory voter will thank you for destroying the BBC then you are wrong.
If people think the BBC is fantastic why wouldn't they voluntarily subscribe to it? What are you so afraid of?1 -
What's so wonderful about the BBC?rottenborough said:
Crap.Philip_Thompson said:
About time! Yes!rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
And if you think the average Tory voter will thank you for destroying the BBC then you are wrong. 1 -
It made some decent shows about 30 years ago when there weren't any rivals.Sunil_Prasannan said:
What's so wonderful about the BBC?rottenborough said:
Crap.Philip_Thompson said:
About time! Yes!rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
And if you think the average Tory voter will thank you for destroying the BBC then you are wrong.
Right now? Beats me.1 -
Trump won on goals scored, not points. So there!Philip_Thompson said:
You may wish it to be that way but its not. Electors literally are like points. And like points the electors are determined based on votes on their individual matches (states).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nah!Philip_Thompson said:
Nope you have it backwards.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nah!Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Votes = points
Electors = goals.
Electors = points.
Votes = goals.
Having more possession, or even more goals across a season, doesn't win you the title. Having more points does - just like you need more electors.
The country is like a season, the states are like individual games.
Its not enough to just win a few games 8-0 then draw the rest, if your opponent is winning all their games 1-0 they will win the season even if you have more goals.
Votes = points
Electors = goals
Search your feelings, Philip_Thompson, you will know the crappiness of the Electoral College to be true!
0 -
The content?Sunil_Prasannan said:
What's so wonderful about the BBC?rottenborough said:
Crap.Philip_Thompson said:
About time! Yes!rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
And if you think the average Tory voter will thank you for destroying the BBC then you are wrong.
Imagine that last 70 years of British life without the BBC.
It is a TV and radio creative desert.
Name your favourite TV shows of the last 30 or 40 years.
0 -
Not sure about that. The licence fee days are coming to an end.rottenborough said:
Crap.Philip_Thompson said:
About time! Yes!rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
And if you think the average Tory voter will thank you for destroying the BBC then you are wrong.
Many will back this from the young to the elderly who now have to pay0 -
I find that I know a lot of Tory and Labour people who have no love of the BBC at all - it's more common with the former, but taking on and changing the BBC in principle won't concern as many people as it might be thought, though who is doing the changing will.rottenborough said:Cummings vs BBC?
Does he know that a great many Archers listeners and Antiques roadshow viewers etc etc are 60+ Tory voters.
Will no one in the Party stop Rasputin in a beanie hat?0 -
First they came for the BBC.
Then they came for the judges.
0 -
Trump won it fair and square as the rules are written. That isn't to say they don't need amendment in the light of events. It is not always a system for for purpose.Philip_Thompson said:
What's poor about it?Mexicanpete said:
Your analogy is a poor one.Philip_Thompson said:
Votes are like goals. This season's goals scored:DavidL said:
And Liverpool committed more than twice as many fouls as Norwich today. Which made no difference whatsoever, unfortunately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Electoral College system is crappy, end of.DavidL said:
No, one candidate understood the rules of the game and one didn't.Sunil_Prasannan said:
More Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump. It was only the fact of the crappy Electoral College system that saved Trump.DavidL said:What the hell could Hillary bring to the ticket other than baggage? Her amazing campaigning nous? Her wit? I don't see any upside at all.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Liverpool 61 Goals
Manchester City 65 Goals
Using Sunil's metrics should Manchester City be top of the table?
Sunil is right. In 2000 and 2016 the most popular candidate across the country lost because the system is flawed. Cameron thought the 2005 GE was unrepresentative of the votes cast so decided to address the anomaly. Perfectly sensible.
In 2000 and 2016 the most popular candidate across the country lost because the system worked as designed by its founders. Because to win you don't need to be the most popular across the country, you need to be the most popular in enough states to win. Piling up votes in large states but ignoring small states is something the founders deliberately designed the system to avoid.
The Founding Fathers put in place the impeachment process to remove an allegedly corrupt President. Some weeks ago it failed only because 250 years later we now encounter people like McConnell who don't give a damn. That process is also no longer fit for purpose, even though it was a good idea at the time.0 -
If you want to watch SKY, what do you do?rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
You buy a VOLUNTARY subscription.
If you want to watch the BBC, you should likewise be able to purchase a VOLUNTARY subscription.2 -
TV Poll Tax is a regressive, er, tax!rottenborough said:First they came for the BBC.
Then they came for the judges.0 -
Where is the protest?eadric said:
The BBC is doomed. I wish that were not the case. But it is. No country on earth can continue to poll tax all citizens for a broadcasting service used by a minority. It is nuts.rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
Worse, the way the BBC is funded makes its drama and story productions uniquely mediocre, as it is so scared of offending anyone, lest they cut its cash flow. Cf the recent His Dark Materials, which was just..... cringe.
It doesn't exist.
The mad Tory Cummings-Beanie-Hat Right have invented yet another massive problem that needs solving that no one else gives a fuck about (other than those who can't afford the TV licence - you can do work on that without destroying the BBC).
0 -
Yes, great. Goodbye BBC journalism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If you want to watch SKY, what do you do?rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
You buy a VOLUNTARY subscription.
If you want to watch the BBC, you should likewise be able to purchase a VOLUNTARY subscription.1 -
Yet the voters of rust belt state Wisconsin went for a lesbian senator in 2018. And did so in greater numbers than went for Trump in the presidential election of 2016.nico67 said:
Totally different . Obama was married and straight . There’s zip chance of Buttigieg winning if he’s the Democrat nominee.Philip_Thompson said:
They said that about they wouldn't vote for a black man. They did.nico67 said:You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone more Liberal than me but there’s more chance of ET landing on your lawn than the rust belt states voting for a gay man .
The media seem to be avoiding the elephant in the room.
And to be blunt aswell as that the black and Latino populations in the USA are often quite homophobic and are a key part of the Democratic Vote in other states.
It was hilarious to see Trump sounding quite positive about Buttigieg because clearly he knows he’s guaranteed to remain President if he became the nominee.
Do you seriously think the rust belt states will vote for a gay man . And that’s also going to be an issue in some states the Dems currently hold .2 -
Nevertheless, one assumes that a voluntary fee will cost more than the current license, because there will be considerably fewer people paying it, and the economies forced upon the BBC are unlikely to be able to bridge the gap. Those likely to pay to keep the BBC are significantly less likely to be the Amazon/Netflix generation or even the Sky generation, but will be most pensioners. Leaving aside the question of the over 75s, that’s a lot of core Tory voters who could easily end up paying more.kle4 said:
I find that I know a lot of Tory and Labour people who have no love of the BBC at all - it's more common with the former, but taking on and changing the BBC in principle won't concern as many people as it might be thought, though who is doing the changing will.rottenborough said:Cummings vs BBC?
Does he know that a great many Archers listeners and Antiques roadshow viewers etc etc are 60+ Tory voters.
Will no one in the Party stop Rasputin in a beanie hat?0 -
My daughter commented that I had a cheek moaning about Love Island and Orange is the New Black when I was watching a show with a talking polar bear!eadric said:
The BBC is doomed. I wish that were not the case. But it is. No country on earth can continue to poll tax all citizens for a broadcasting service used by a minority. It is nuts.rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
Worse, the way the BBC is funded makes its drama and story productions uniquely mediocre, as it is so scared of offending anyone, lest they cut its cash flow. Cf the recent His Dark Materials, which was just..... cringe.0 -
Why goodbye? Won't YOU be buying a VOLUNTARY subscription? Hmmmm?rottenborough said:
Yes, great. Goodbye BBC journalism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If you want to watch SKY, what do you do?rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
You buy a VOLUNTARY subscription.
If you want to watch the BBC, you should likewise be able to purchase a VOLUNTARY subscription.1 -
I can understand you are annoyed, as many will be, but the BBC have to move with the times and the licence fee is unacceptable in these days of subscription tv and they grossly overpay so called talent with taxpayers moneyrottenborough said:
Where is the protest?eadric said:
The BBC is doomed. I wish that were not the case. But it is. No country on earth can continue to poll tax all citizens for a broadcasting service used by a minority. It is nuts.rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
Worse, the way the BBC is funded makes its drama and story productions uniquely mediocre, as it is so scared of offending anyone, lest they cut its cash flow. Cf the recent His Dark Materials, which was just..... cringe.
It doesn't exist.
The mad Tory Cummings-Beanie-Hat Right have invented yet another massive problem that needs solving that no one else gives a fuck about (other than those who can't afford the TV licence - you can do work on that without destroying the BBC).1 -
The injustice is that it is a flat tax which all pay but which disproportionately benefits the rich. Move it to general taxation and the problem disappears.rottenborough said:
Where is the protest?eadric said:
The BBC is doomed. I wish that were not the case. But it is. No country on earth can continue to poll tax all citizens for a broadcasting service used by a minority. It is nuts.rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
Worse, the way the BBC is funded makes its drama and story productions uniquely mediocre, as it is so scared of offending anyone, lest they cut its cash flow. Cf the recent His Dark Materials, which was just..... cringe.
It doesn't exist.
The mad Tory Cummings-Beanie-Hat Right have invented yet another massive problem that needs solving that no one else gives a fuck about (other than those who can't afford the TV licence - you can do work on that without destroying the BBC).0 -
What's so special about the BBC's journalism?rottenborough said:
Yes, great. Goodbye BBC journalism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If you want to watch SKY, what do you do?rottenborough said:The destruction of one of the pillars of British life and envy of the world begins.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1228806502196051969
You buy a VOLUNTARY subscription.
If you want to watch the BBC, you should likewise be able to purchase a VOLUNTARY subscription.
And why won't you volunteer to pay for it?0 -
Once again, we hear from "Senior aides".
Stop giving Cummings this protection. He is basically the PM.
1 -
If terrestrial TV was switched off, we could have super fast mobile broadband and not worry about Huawei, as we'd have so much bandwidth available.0
This discussion has been closed.