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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie back as favourite for the Dem nomination
The White House contender who was born three month before Pearl Harbour, Bernie Sanders, is back as the betting favourite for the nomination following a brief period when multi-billionaire, Mike Bloomberg, edged him out.
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sonia-khan-sacked-downing-street-dominic-cummings-unfair-dismissal-a9337311.html
Not the first time he’s had legal trouble either, there was another case in 2012.
No doubt that's how it would be described if this was a man...
The coverage of Scholfield coming out was way over the top
But we should save that for another day.
Someone has ended their life - probably in part because of media hounding
Whatever happened in the room between those two adults can now never be truly known. The outcome of the media coverage of it is now pretty clear.
I don't think Biden will win it.
If there's one thing we learned from New Hampshire, it's that people who say "Biden" when asked who they're voting for in the Democratic Primary are the same kind of people who - ummm... - don't bother to actually vote.
We've actually known this for some time. Because in survey after survey, lack of engagement with the Primary process and support for Biden are perfectly correlated. The less attention someone was paying, the more likely they were to vote for Biden.
Also, between now and South Carolina, we have Nevada.
It's a caucus. Sanders is clearly in the lead, but it's a weak lead with him (still) struggling on around a quarter of the vote. Steyer has been spending a fortune on TV adverts in the state, and has apparently got to 11% in the polls there, essentially flat with Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Warren. If you regard Biden's 18% in the polls as soft, then he's likely in no better position.
I don't see Biden winning Nevada. His vote is soft, and he's likely to struggle again.
The only question, to me, is will one of Warren, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg end up breaking out and getting up towards 20%?
Sanders probably has the best organisation in Nevada. Buttigieg is not far behind. Warren and Klobuchar are weaker on the ground, and the latter is relying very much on a big ad buy. Steyer is likely to struggle to break 15%, and probably doesn't have many volunteers on the ground, so it's a really open question about which way his supporters will go in the second round.
So, my forecasts? Sanders to win Nevada with (again) an unconvincing percentage. Buttigieg second (again), Warren with a decent third, and Klobuchar and Biden duking it out for fourth.
Biden and Klobuchar cling on for South Carolina.
Where Sanders wins with (again) an unconvincing percentage. Biden second. Buttigieg third.
id est per exemplum :anyone who wins the lottery should say nothing to anyone.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228387915807498241?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228418357059301376?s=20
I recall seeing Air Force 172 (A clapped out 757) at Dublin Airport in the fag end of Obama’s second term. That was Biden on a, slightly dressy, golf visit. He was good for only that 4 years ago. Time has not improved him.
2 recent suicides now though of people connected to Love Island, going on a reality show does not mean the media has to hound you after
I don’t care which one of the other two you elect, but please don’t elect this person. Sanity is a requirement for politics, unless you are Dominic Cummings.
Best wishes
Y Doethur.
cc @AlastairMeeks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1228590234402775040
Incredible.
BTW, the last thread was as poor a thread as I have read on PB in many a year.
Horrendous whatever the reason anyway.
Bloomberg's wealth is tbh, another level - neither Trump nor Steyer are rich enough to pursue this strategy.
OTOH one of the upsides I can see of Bloomberg winning is that no one would feel the need to pay any attention to those arrogant, incompetent, bumbling and unrepresentative tossers in Iowa ever again. Runs a pretty close to second to the likelihood of Trump getting a good thrashing in my book.
We're several grand in the hole.
Anyway, it's not really an opinion. I think we'd just both like Bloomberg to kindly f-off.
Following their win against Norwich this evening and as a result of Man City being thrown out of The Champions League for the next two seasons, Liverpool have now already qualified for next season's competition after playing only 26 of this season's 38 match Premier League programme ... quite remarkable!
(1) He's never got above 18% in a national poll
(2) That polling is yet to be tested in any election
(3) He does poorly in head to head and democrats are naturally suspicious of him
Is it still possible he makes it?
Yes. Money does seem to talk in America (and is respected) but I'd like to see how Super Tuesday develops and its polling aftermath before I volunteer for any haircut on him.
I can't trade my way out of this one.
It also highlights how few SE Asian countries are going to capable of anything similar.
#Bloombergdidn'tkillhimself
And that's nothing to do with the betting.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51514628
https://twitter.com/AeronewsGlobal/status/1228716036117221376?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1228716036117221376&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-51514056
It is mainly Tory Remain seats the LDs are targeting anyway where Labour are 3rd.
I agree once the Labour leadership is decided polls will be more relevant
https://yougov.co.uk/(popup:search/Lib dem leadership)
Is he doing a Blair / Brown and promising to only do 2 years ?
Seriously, just - wow...
https://youtu.be/Leh-QlpD0Yk
Democrats are not going to vote for a Bloomberg -Hillary ticket, because Hillary 2016 'was not elitist enough' they now need to add an ex Republican billionaire to a Hillary ticket is not a message to convince Democratic voters
(punches wall)
Edit - ouch. https://twitter.com/mr_syoung/status/1228609252652146688
Vote Sanders get Trump.
Hillary = 65,853,514 American votes
Trump = 62,984,828 American votes
Steyer vs Bloomberg vs Bezos vs Trump
But it's still a world of two kinds of people, those with loaded guns and those who dig, but which of them will dig ?
https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/Democratic Voter Survey Jan-Feb 2020.pdf
https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/ToplinesFeb2020-REVISED.pdf
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/new-hampshire/2020/2-3-2020_final_nh_tracking_marginals.pdf
And in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden got meaningfully lower vote shares than the polls indicated.
I think this comes down to two factors:
Firstly, Biden has a less good machine for getting voters out. Ground game matters in low turnout elections.
Secondly, Biden supporters are less politically engaged. There's almost a perfect correlation between "not much answers" to "how much attention are you paying to the Democratic primary?" and Biden support.
That's a big problem for Biden. It suggests that the more people focus on who to vote for in the Primaries, the less likely they are to vote for Biden.
So you're half right, putting presidential or prime ministerial ageism in a unique category between prejudice and common sense, at times including both.
At the same time, most senior jobs aren't open to the very young or very old in the first place, meaning that age discrimination in the large zone in between is likely to be closer to prejudice.